Season 59, Week 2 - Albert Simon vs. Moppy. Thus begins set super on fire week.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Godlike

Violetta (G3) vs Masaji Kato (SH2)
Guv (DQ8) vs Ultimecia (FF8)
Taro Namatame (Pers4) vs Celes Chere (FF6)
Chaos (FF1) vs Profound Darkness (PS4)

Heavy

Galcian (SoA) vs Peppita Rosetti (SO3)
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs Kanji Tatsumi (Pers4)
Meliadoul Tingel (FFT) vs Neclord (S2)
Odin (VP2) vs Albert Simon (SH1)

Middle

Gerik (FE8) vs Cray (BoF4)
Carol Anderson (WA5) vs Bo (BoF1)
Sain (FE7) vs Arche Klein (ToP)
Cielo (DDS) vs Philia Felice (ToD)

Light

Milich Oppenheimer (S1) vs Tsai (S2)
Keele Zeibel (ToE) vs Priscillia (FE7)
Saleh (FE8) vs Simone Verdricci (S2)
Guido (G1) vs Meg (Suikos)

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike

Violetta (G3) vs Masaji Kato (SH2)
Guv (DQ8) vs Ultimecia (FF8)- Uhh...oh man. The horrors.
Taro Namatame (Pers4) vs Celes Chere (FF6)- Spoils
Chaos (FF1) vs Profound Darkness (PS4)

Heavy

Galcian (SoA) vs Peppita Rosetti (SO3)
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs Kanji Tatsumi (Pers4)- Interesting. My initial thought was Jowy crushes. But then...if Kanji lands that first Auto-Matarued Physical tech, he's going to get two following chances, I think. Uh...no specific S2 evade numbers, but Jowy probably needs at least 30% relative evade to me. Gut is uh...probably doesn't quite have that much? Unsure here.
Meliadoul Tingel (FFT) vs Neclord (S2)
Odin (VP2) vs Albert Simon (SH1)- Uhh...

Middle

Gerik (FE8) vs Cray (BoF4)
Carol Anderson (WA5) vs Bo (BoF1)- Carol's damage isn't much worse than Bo's, so I think she takes this.
Sain (FE7) vs Arche Klein (ToP)- Arche for Light
Cielo (DDS) vs Philia Felice (ToD)- Philia for Light

Light

Milich Oppenheimer (S1) vs Tsai (S2)
Keele Zeibel (ToE) vs Priscillia (FE7)
Saleh (FE8) vs Simone Verdricci (S2)
Guido (G1) vs Meg (Suikos)

[Nephrite]

Taro Namatame (Pers4) vs Celes Chere (FF6) - How does Celes deal with Spirit Drain? Or for that matter, Quad Converge? He can just choose an element that Celes doesn't have...

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike

Violetta (G3) vs Masaji Kato (SH2): Kato vs. Godlike bosses tends not to go over well.
Guv (DQ8) vs Ultimecia (FF8): um
Chaos (FF1) vs Profound Darkness (PS4): Too bad Chaos is hit by Holy in-game just fine removing any real argument here. Never mind that I don't see him resisting Dark either, so... he may not even get past form 1!

Heavy

Meliadoul Tingel (FFT) vs Neclord (S2): SUIKODEN TWO ONLY? WHAT IS THIS.
Odin (VP2) vs Albert Simon (SH1): good lord

Middle

Gerik (FE8) vs Cray (BoF4): Cray might be able to buff with Shield in time? Nah, probably not.
Carol Anderson (WA5) vs Bo (BoF1): Need to look at this one more closely.

Light

Milich Oppenheimer (S1) vs Tsai (S2): S1 fighters are better in general, and think Milich has the superior stat spread even if this weren't the case.
Saleh (FE8) vs Simone Verdricci (S2): Isn't incompetent.
Guido (G1) vs Meg (Suikos): And to prove I'm not biased against S2...

[Dark Holy Elf]

Taro Namatame (Pers4) vs Celes Chere (FF6) - How does Celes deal with Spirit Drain? Or for that matter, Quad Converge? He can just choose an element that Celes doesn't have...

Dunno about Spirit Drain, but Quad Converge is useless against Celes since her own attack magic is non-elemental while she nulls every element Namatame has access to, in an amusing coincidence.

[Dhyerwolf]

Taro Namatame (Pers4) vs Celes Chere (FF6) - How does Celes deal with Spirit Drain? Or for that matter, Quad Converge? He can just choose an element that Celes doesn't have...

Celes nulls Fire/Thunder/Ice/Wind, so Quad Converge is out. On the other hand, Spirit Leech may actually give it to him. Namatame probably needs about 8-9 physicals to kill Celes, on top of her evasion. She may well just outslug, especially since he's using his first 3 turns attacking her MP (She's getting...probably 2 magic attacks+maybe 12-13 or so physicals- with Maneater instead of Enhancer of course). Gut reaction is that her stuff adds up faster.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Also, Spirit Drain is a freaking 25% mHP limit that 3HKOs average MP (which Celes is pretty well above) and is evadable. By the time he gets to use it, she's already well on her way to victory to begin with.

[Dhyerwolf]

Oh, it being any limit at all really sinks him. Should 2HKO average MP! Albeit barely (Although I might have been a higher level, meaning that it would be a 3HKO).

[SnowFire]

Violetta (G3) vs Masaji Kato (SH2) - This is actually moderately close.  Violetta's damage was only okay IIRC, pre useless-in-this-fight debuffs?  Meaning she might not OHKO part of the Regalia, meaning Kato might live to unleash his super-combo on Violetta.  Fight turns on this.  Leaning Violetta but general Kato HP respect makes this interesting.
Guv (DQ8) vs Ultimecia (FF8) - No Call Team, No Dragon Soul, so close fight.  This is entirely about how fast Guv gets doubles and if his MP holds out.  HealAll doesn't cost much MP, bug Gigagash does cost some, and Gigagash is...  what...  5HKOing the final form here or something?  (Earlier forms probably get OHKOed and 2HKOed a bunch, so not a big deal).  Ulti is slowish but I dunno if she's giving up that many doubles to Guv before his MP is gone.

Heavy

Galcian (SoA) vs Peppita Rosetti (SO3)
Meliadoul Tingel (FFT) vs Neclord (S2) - I really want to vote Meliadoul on "lol S2 bosses" logic.
Odin (VP2) vs Albert Simon (SH1) - Simon's physical is inconsistent, as I'd hold bosses to not being able to spam 3-hit versions.  And I think it's his best damage here?  Anyway, Odin has ~1.1xPCHP to me, Simon has ~2.5x PCHP.  Simon should 3HKO, so it goes something like Simon / Odin / Simon / Odin (Spiritual Lancer) / Simon (win).  Yeesh, much as I like to hype Odin myself, I don't think he wins this one; SL + other damage should be about 1.5x PCHP worth of damage, so he can plausibly win if you scale Simon's HP harshly, but not enough for most interps I imagine.

Middle and Light are Suiko / obscure stuff overload.

[Nephrite]

Oh, it being any limit at all really sinks him. Should 2HKO average MP! Albeit barely (Although I might have been a higher level, meaning that it would be a 3HKO).

The stat topic doesn't mention it being a limit, just something he has. I also completely forgot that the Megido-line of spells ignored Quad-Converge since I never used Naoto.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Guv (DQ8) vs Ultimecia (FF8) - While Call Team is indeed unreliable and Ulti isn't entirely bereft of tools to mitigate what the monsters can do, I have the gut feeling they can do enough to let Guv at least finish the job - I consider Ulti to be very slow - considerably slower than Guv - which makes me kneejerk the other way.
Taro Namatame (Pers4) vs Celes Chere (FF6) - Yeah, Minerva mocks Kunino-Sagiri as it stands. He only becomes able to even hurt Celes besides the awful physical by the very tail end of his life, for starters. Also, I'd be very, very surprised if Spirit Drain wasn't a limit. In both my playthroughs, I never saw him use it before the second Control phase ended, and it certainly wasn't because I didn't give him enough time to drop it.
Chaos (FF1) vs Profound Darkness (PS4) - Soooooooooo much better as a slugger.

Jowy Atreides (S2) vs Kanji Tatsumi (Pers4) - These days, I've not been feeling the love towards Endure.
Meliadoul Tingel (FFT) vs Neclord (Suikos) - Yeah no.
Odin (VP2) vs Albert Simon (SH1) - Yeah no. The 3HKO Holy Chest or something manhandles Moppy fine at worst - 2HKOs with Elfboy-level respect, which already errs on the high side, OHKOs to me, the jazz. And giving Odin credit for damage when Toughness is reasonably obtained about two chapters before you fight him = no in my books.

Gerik (FE8) vs Cray (BoF4) - Probably.
Sain (FE7) vs Arche Klein (ToP) - I think Sain's mdef sinks him enough for Arche's ID to get him before he gets her himself. He'd probably need a very solid 2HKO, and Tales durability curves are near-meaningless.
Cielo (DDS) vs Philia Felice (ToD) - God.

Milich Oppenheimer (S1) vs Tsai (S2) - Stats.
Saleh (FE8) vs Simone Verdricci (S2) - Simone. And man, so sorry, I mistook Simone for Vincent.
Guido (G1) vs Meg (Suikos) - Guido.

[Yoshiken]

And, I, on the other hand, swear I've seen Spirit Leech before a limit in at least one of the attempts against him. I know it's ridiculously rare, but... the real question here is: does it actually matter?

...okay, I just tried working stuff out, only to scroll down in the FF6 topic to find completely different figures for durabilities and the damage average. Argh. As it is, I think Namatame gets there in time, and the higher damage average just means Celes is even less likely to finish him off. (Note: This is with my interps, so it's probably Celes' win if undecided. I see Unerring Justice as barely missing a 2HKO to average, the physical as a 7HKO before evasion, and Namatame at 1.6x average durability.)
I'll hold off on voting on this until we have some kind of confirmation on Spirit Leech being a limit or not, since it seems the whole match hinges on that.

But, man, that is bad luck with the Minerva hitting those elements exactly.

[superaielman]

Godlike

Violetta (G3) vs Masaji Kato (SH2)- Welcome back to Godlike, Kato.
Guv (DQ8) vs Ultimecia (FF8)- Hell's Judgement can't outrace Guv's healing.
Taro Namatame (Pers4) vs Celes Chere (FF6)- There's always Runic for MP healing?!
Chaos (FF1) vs Profound Darkness (PS4)

Heavy

Galcian (SoA) vs Peppita Rosetti (SO3)- Fucking hell.
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs Kanji Tatsumi (Pers4)- Heavy armor/evasion should save him at the worst.
Meliadoul Tingel (FFT) vs Neclord (S2)
Odin (VP2) vs Albert Simon (SH1)- It's Moppy.

Middle

Gerik (FE8) vs Cray (BoF4)- That opening double rips Cray a new asshole.
Cielo (DDS) vs Philia Felice (ToD)- TIMESTOP PRESS TURNS?! (no)

Light

Milich Oppenheimer (S1) vs Tsai (S2)
Keele Zeibel (ToE) vs Priscillia (FE7)
Saleh (FE8 vs Simone Verdricci (S2)
Guido (G1) vs Meg (Suikos)- Light merits no comments, just fire.

[Clear Tranquil]

I'm confused. How does Auto-Tarukaja give Kanji two more turns? One!More or something? Also irrc Kanji's terrible vs magic but I'm assuming the not terrible HP prevents Jowy from an OHKO? Jowy's faster right? So it'd be something like Jowy > Kanji, One!More > Kanji > ?? ?? Hungry Fiend is magic based? >.>

[Fudozukushi]

I'm confused. How does Auto-Tarukaja give Kanji two more turns? One!More or something? Also irrc Kanji's terrible vs magic but I'm assuming the not terrible HP prevents Jowy from an OHKO? Jowy's faster right? So it'd be something like Jowy > Kanji, One!More > Kanji > ?? ?? Hungry Fiend is magic based? >.>

Kanji gets a crit then dazes.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Given how low the crit odds are, I wouldn't really rely on those - Jowy also has near game-best Tech, which means he's pretty decent at evasion too, and Kanji isn't terribly accurate either (low Luck and game-worst speed). I honestly think it's more likely that Kanji gets dodged that than he gets a crit. Also, the two turns come from Jowy 2HKOing+Endure, if I'm reading Dhyer right.

[074]

Godlike

Violetta (G3) vs Masaji Kato (SH2) - Remember what Godlike was like, Kato?  Welcome Back to Godlike.
Taro Namatame (Pers4) vs Celes Chere (FF6) I'll have to think on this one a bit.
Chaos (FF1) vs Profound Darkness (PS4) - Hi Chaos.  Meet holy damage and ITD physicals!

Heavy

Odin (VP2) vs Albert Simon (SH1) - Moppy gave me trouble, admittedly, due to having ascended most of my characters around that point.  Leaving me to try and combo with LEZARD.  lolvp2mages.  Tentative Albert vote.

Middle

Gerik (FE8) vs Cray (BoF4) - Gerik was pretty good from what I remember.  And plays against Cray's biggest weakness; speed.
Carol Anderson (WA5) vs Bo (BoF1) - Downgrade now please.

Light

is epic because I can't vote on any of it this week.

[Talaysen]

Namatame's Spirit Leech is most certainly NOT a limit.  I've seen him use it turn 1 and then use it every other turn until the first Quad Converge phase.  I don't think I've ever seen him use it below 75% HP though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsW58QCM_3I

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Namatame's Spirit Leech is most certainly NOT a limit.  I've seen him use it turn 1 and then use it every other turn until the first Quad Converge phase.  I don't think I've ever seen him use it below 75% HP though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsW58QCM_3I

Heh. I've seen him use it in the Unerring Justice phase, for whatever that's worth. I have to wonder if he -loses- it while he has Quad Converge. In that case, it might as well matter nearly nothing anyway, since he gets tossed into QC and then fails.

(Also, did you ever play on Normal? I have no idea if diff changes could affect limit ranges, and I remember you played on Hard Mode there.)

[Yoshiken]

I know I played on Normal, and I remember seeing it that early on. As for Quad Converge stage, it's less frequent but still possible, IIRC? It's just less frequent because every other turn of his consists of Quad Converge -> -dyne spell.

Anyways, that match is decided for me then.

Taro Namatame (Pers4) vs Celes Chere (FF6) - Spirit Leech -> poke to death. Unerring Justice gives him this just in time, and I don't see Celes' evasion kicking in in time for her to survive.

Gerik (FE8) vs Cray (BoF4) -

[Talaysen]

Heh. I've seen him use it in the Unerring Justice phase, for whatever that's worth. I have to wonder if he -loses- it while he has Quad Converge. In that case, it might as well matter nearly nothing anyway, since he gets tossed into QC and then fails.

(Also, did you ever play on Normal? I have no idea if diff changes could affect limit ranges, and I remember you played on Hard Mode there.)

I wouldn't be surprised if he lost it during the QC stage.

And no, I never played on Normal, but from what I've heard and seen from other videos, I think it only changes stats.  Not moves or limit ranges or anything.  That's the only thing it's affected in any other SMT game too, so there's some precedent there.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

I'll also note for those people hyping Kunino not losing SD during QC phase, I'll note he himself sets a precedent for losing skills in limit phases: see how he loses Quad Converge on his 25% HP phase.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Regarding Celes' evasion, it's easy to forget, but it's actually cast-best and dodges over 1/3 of attacks. Her pdur is rather high too. Namatame's damage before Unerring Justice looks laughably ineffective here.

This is actually moderately close.  Violetta's damage was only okay IIRC, pre useless-in-this-fight debuffs?  Meaning she might not OHKO part of the Regalia, meaning Kato might live to unleash his super-combo on Violetta.  Fight turns on this.  Leaning Violetta but general Kato HP respect makes this interesting.

The frailest part of Kato's support has 1250 HP. Violetta has solidly 2HKOing damage in Dance of Death which should easily take that out. Even the DL topic (which ludicrously undersells what you can do in-game, due to buffs and combos) paints average damage as something in the 340 range which suggests that Kato's frailest support part has under half PC HP. So yeah, combo is not happening.

Violetta also instant doubles the below average for what that's worth.

[OblivionKnight]

Difficulty only changes stats in P4 (and other SMT...with a few minor exceptions).

As for Deliveryman...he has good accuracy - 72 AGI will do that.  It's game-best for the time by far - I'd have to look back specifically, but he shouldn't have issues missing average...probably drops Celes down a bit on the evasion. 

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Difficulty only changes stats in P4 (and other SMT...with a few minor exceptions).

As for Deliveryman...he has good accuracy - 72 AGI will do that.  It's game-best for the time by far - I'd have to look back specifically, but he shouldn't have issues missing average...probably drops Celes down a bit on the evasion. 

I'm not sure Agility/Luck have much of an effect at all on spells (they're more accurate than physical skills and the basic physical by default). How much credit you give that is up to you, but then, it shouldn't take more than a couple turns for Celes to put SD out of reach for Kunino, so he gets at best two shots at trying to 4HKO her MP - which can still miss rather easily even with the somewhat high accuracy. Then, he gets into the QC phase which is just massive failure against Celes, who just takes the time to put up her buffs and own the hell out of Namatame.