DL Mafia GAME OVER Scum Win

[Roukanken]

Alright, so. Good morning, apologies for the lateness, got caught up giving the room a much-needed cleanup and finally watching the last two episodes of Kaiji (;____;)

Anyway. Proper reading now, focusing on the names that are getting thrown around the most.

Laggy/Glen:
"Voting Lurker!Rat is bad, but voting Lurker!Alice is good!"
Laziness in general is not a scumtell, but his favouring Lurker!Rat over Lurker!Alice for no good reason is catching my attention.
In general, LAL on Day 1 is a very easy way for an active scumteam to look useful when they aren't.
I don't understand what he's trying to get at here, when he claims that not poking the lurkers would have kept us in jokephase land. Except by the time the LAL accusations had emerged we already had Makkotah and his paranoid OH NOES WHAT IF CARTH GETS LYNCHED case, which discussion could have emerged from no problem.
Glen's first post with the case against MC is very much an IIoA wall, but given he's a fellow replacement I'll give him another post to hopefully become more coherent.
(Glen also gets points for a Nao avatar, though that may be because I recently read the entire Liar Game manga in the space of one day.)

MC:
Not revealing the case on Tai until pressed on it does not seem like a very Townie action. And when the case is actually revealed, its two main points are 'hey guys my vote on Carth was TOTALLY SRS because being third on wagon is totally Townie!' and 'Don't vote me, I'm everyone's imouto and they'll get mad at you >:|' which are WIFOM and needless self-defense respectively. (I still think this Imouto Defense carries much more weight than people are willing to give it - I don't see why Town!MC should be trying to argue that people would come to her defense solely on meta when, from what I've heard, it's her first game anyway.)
Then we get a wall of lurker checking which achieves nothing, a confession of misrep and needless role speculation on Noyn, and voting Xanth to clarify his case on Laggy while only offering 'there MIGHT be something there' in terms of actual suspicion. Where's the actual scumhunting?
We get a long arduous post about Yoshi, but she decides to write it off and keep her vote on the guy who she's already said is suspicious because he uses a lot of words. Which, in the end, results in her going for just another lurker (a point that rings doubly true given that she targets Noyn shortly afterward).

Makkotah:
PARANOIA ABOUT CARTH QUICKLYYYYYYYNCH!
Okay, seriously. What does saying this accomplish, exactly?
Makkotah then pulls an anti-Laggy and picks out Lurker!Alice to focus his attention on. Jeez, man, the game's been up for about 8 hours. People have other things to do than play Mafia, believe it or not.
This post is empty and self-defensive, and could easily have been ignored entirely.
No original content here; disagreeing with the MC case and nodding his head along with Kilga. Desperately trying to look like he's contributing when really he isn't.
Explain exactly why you needed to come to Xanth's defense here. I'd have assumed Xanth was a better speaker of Xanth than you, and he's a big boy who can look after himself.
I can't be bothered linking the 3-4 posts he makes which achieve little beyond further defending the Alice case, which, for the record, he never even placed a vote on. His vote was still lying on Ciato that whole time, and Ciato doesn't come up in his suspicions at all, even for a throwaway 'needs to post'.
Then we have this.

Aside from that, still don't see why D1 LaL for pressure is bad, etc., saying "D1 LaL for pressure is bad because D1 LaL is bad" doesn't mean much to me coming from non-confirmed-town people playing in this game.

Too much talking in Day 1 is very very bad. Kilga will attest to this, but in MotK the worst games are inevitably the ones where Day 1 takes up half the post count. The simple fact is that it's freaking Day 1 - there isn't a mountain of content to discuss, and as a result there are players who simply out of playstyle try to avoid saying too much. And of course, scum benefits from this because people will argue semantics over tiny points that aren't really all that scummy.

Snowfire:
The initial Carth tunneling up to the Noyn vote can be considered a joke. It's starting here, when he puts the vote back on Carth and still doesn't give any decent reasoning for it, that things get rather iffy. Given his later claim of oh wait are we srs now I'm on the fence about this segment of his play.
On that note, the linked post is the first thing that Snowfire's been scummy for - the case on Laggy. First point against him is a long-winded way of saying 'Yes, Laggy's case on Alice is totally okay except no except yes'. Seriously, are you trying to agree with him or disagree with him?
Second point is slightly more viable, but first point is still baaaaaad.

Reporting is bad if it is hiding not having an opinion on anything. I feel that I have an idea of where MC stands on people and there's a paper trail to hold against her if there's any whipsaw position changes.

You're going to have to clarify this paper trail, because personally I can't see any real opinions from MC beyond 'lurkers are bad, so is Yoshi but not bad enough to vote for!'

Rat is a good player, he's not likely to make any howler of a mistake if he did draw scum.

What sort of reasoning is this? 'Rat is a good player, so the instant he does anything that's even remotely scummy it must be a scum slipup'? Never mind the fact you admit yourself that this idea of yours might not have any weight.

Those are all the people I really have problems with at the moment. Not seeing the cases on Yoshi or Carth. I want to give Glen at least until Day 2 to pick up for Laggy, but after that he has a lot to answer for. MC and Makkotah irritate making serious attempts at cases (Yoshi and Alice respectively) but leaving their votes on much less serious suspects for no good reason (Xanth for being words words words, and Ciato for absolutely nothing). Snow is tunneling horribly on Carth.

##Unvote: Makkotah
Vote: metroid_composite

Since it's late in the day, it's lynch-picking time, and I'm the only vote on Makkotah soooo...

[Taishyr]

Apologies for the long silence, currently at friend's house, lolwtf bees, was enjoying myself instead of keeping up here. Anyway.

Frankly I understand the case on MC at this point but read it as newbie play, and perhaps more importantly as newbie town play (and as Mein Fuhrervid said, chasing newbies doesn't always help. They can be scum! But in this case I don't think so... yet. Toro may just be being stupid thus far). I do not think I support the lynch as such, though I may need a reread to solidify or verify this.

I don't have terribly too much time right now, but a few thoughts: Rat, saying "I resent my early-day skimming being represented as a bad thing, too, when I did return later to clarify and reaffirm my position." is sorta like saying "I regret people believing my initial statement that I was in the KKK when I returned later to clarify and reaffirm, saying that I would have joined but they weren't open at the time." except far less serious. It's still an early day skimming, it's still a bad thing, coming back later and explaining helps some but you did the former first. Getting indignant doesn't help your case there.

This being said yeah I've been doing the same thing as him in part - if I don't have words down on someone yet I'm either waiting for more dialogue from them or I'm currently undecided.

what else was there... right, reply to Xanth. Laggy on flusterbus I can kinda sorta see... But. Not really sure I feel the charge of cherrypicking so well here, and honestly this feels like massive mountain/molehill the more I look over the beginnings of the day -in addition- to my previous concerns. This being said on some level there is a possible priority cross - even discounting that I'm not reading Laggy/nowGlen the way you are, I disagree on "terribad" over "none". None is active lurking. None is pretty much blatant scumplay, even when town does it. (QR redeemed herself, and then "back'd" out.) (...sorry, QR.) Terribad is still someone attempting to explain themselves and communicate, someone investing themselves in the game.

Need to reread for the people not being discussed as well, that'll come in a while because I'm honestly kinda busy as it stands.

[Yoshiken]

arghle. All coherency is gone, illness is back. Gonna keep trying to play, so whatever.

I'm still not seeing what everyone's problem with me is. Going through MC's list in order: Laggy's was my "we need content", which I've explained since. (Zenny said the same, so I won't mention him later.) MC's, I responded to, and it's almost entirely playstyle. Ciato attacks me for the SnowFire train which I was never on. I said he was suspicious for promising content and not delivering, which MC pointed out the times on, so I took that part back (although dismissing Rat's post entirely was still bad.) I am in no way supporting a SnowFire lynch today, and I have no idea why this has gained so much attention. (This is also funny, since Ciato says she basically disagrees with everything I said, yet the previous post... mostly agreed with what I said. hah.) Kilga gives no reasoning whatsoever - "I don't like either side of Laggy/Yoshi, I like Laggy less so I'll give Yoshi a small pass for now." SnowFire's the same in the post MC linked, with "I'm tempted into a Yoshi/Alice vote" with no other mention of me whatsoever, and the previous post just explaining that content was coming. Xanth puts it down to vibes, and says he's not getting good or bad vibes.

So, can someone please clarify the case against me? I'd like to have something to defend against if I'm gonna be picking up suspicion/votes.
-------
Getting an odd vibe from Tai. He seems to be chiming in on most cases, yet taking no strong sides on anything - outside of general "MC is more newbie than scummy", I'm finding it hard to place his opinions on anything. Probably deserving of a reread when I have more energy.
RouOH dear GOD WALL OF TEXT. Good to know we've got an active replacement, feeling pretty good given the content so far. Can't say the same about Glen, who's only contribution so far has been mostly the old case against MC, which... yeah, does seem more newbie than scummy to me, at least so far. Content with leaving my vote there, and... deadline's 10pm here, so... yeah, should be around for it, hopefully.

[Tohsaka Rin]

Sasarai calmly watched the arguing warriors from a safe distance. Beside him was his adjutant, who spied at them with a spyglass.

"So, how does it look?"

"Quite alright, sir," replied the adjutant, lowering the spyglass. "As for the standings as they are..."

Sasarai smiled. His adjutant was learning swiftly.

Day 1 Votecount

Alice (0): Cyril, Quietrain, Metroid
Carthrat (3): Snowfire, Taishyr, Taishyr, Metroid, Snowfire, Cyril, Snowfire, Zenny, Metroid
Glen (4): Ciato, Snowfire, Xanth, Yoshiken, Kilga, Carthrat
Taishyr (0): Taishyr, Quietrain, Metroid
Xanth (1): Xanth, Metroid, Taishyr
Ciato (0): Zenny, Quietrain
MC (2): Kilga, Carthrat, Alice, Glen, Roukanken
Kilga (0): Taishyr, Yoshiken
Zenny (1): Taishyr, Kilga, Roukanken
Yoshiken (1): Cyril, Ciato
Snowfire (1): Ciato, Alice
Noyn (0): Excal, Excal, Metroid
Excal (0): Snowfire

No Vote: Noyn

There are 13 chumps currently squabbling, so an agreement by 7 is required to focus lord Blight's sadism.

I believe 9 hours remain in Day 1.

[Taishyr]

Yoshiken: Yeah, if you can't seem to remember what I've been saying, do that reread; been saying more than that, and I'd say committing my vote to Xanth and (thus far at least, when we actually hit deadline unless my words have convinced people I'm the one who's likely to need to move here, but) not swapping off is at least one more "strong stance" for you that seems to have been conveniently missed in its entirety by your little tossaway comment there.

Still somewhat swamped, should be around in two hours or so.

[Yoshiken]

Mm, I had a feeling that was more me missing stuff than you not posting it. The comment there was more of a self-reminder to read over your stuff when I have a chance.

[Glen Veil]

Alright, back, I will admit to thinking I had more on MC then I did when I first started that post, posting what I did was mostly just me finished writing about what I still saw was mostly because it had stood out the most at the time, and by the time I was finished writing about MC I was tired and about to fall asleep, at that point I just felt like I'd rather get something out rather then wait until the last 10 hours before I even posted.

Going to read over pretty much everyone else more closely now and write down things that don't sit well with me as I go, if I notice someone point the same thing out later I'll try to remember to note it, but no promises.  Will put a TLDR paragraph with final opinions at the bottom since a lot of this is probably likely to have already been gone over.

The first post to give me weird vibes.  Has that there must be scum on that train sentence, already touched on.  What looks worse to me is the cheer leading of role speculation in the fourth paragraph for day 1.  I'm of the opinion that any discussion on the vote blocking is pointless WIFOM that won't help us at all today, and is something that should be set aside for later once more roles become clear.  Seeing someone try to encourage people to discuss something that won't give useful opinions towards peoples actual alignments just does not sit well with me.  Noting Rat dismissing the idea of discussing Noyn rolestuff to be bad.

Hm, I honestly thought more stuff looked bad to me, but after rereading most of it just blurs together into people arguing semantics on strategies for day one, most of it pretty much reads to me as "You're bad for supporting this, no you're bad for attacking them for believing that," and basically just continues a bit as NO U.

I disagree with Snowfire that tunneling is suspicious, sure it can be bad, but I'm more suspicious of people that acknowledge a majority of the cases made, since it strikes me as leaving places to fall back on rather then actively pursuing people that one finds actually suspicious.  That said I'm not actually getting any bad vibes from Snow.

Don't feel great about Xanth, however I think it's more due to me not liking his reasons for sticking onto Laggy/me, but I generally like the rest of what he has to say, so I'm thinking the feeling is more of an OMGUS kind of vibe.

Neutral feelings on Yoshi, on one hand I can kind of see how maybe people may see him as needlessly grasping for straws on people, on the other hand he strikes me as someone who is at least looking for other things to go on other then the merry go round of disagreements on meta and whatnot that just about everyone else seems to be caught up in.

Yeah, only people that are really not sitting well with me at this point are Alice, Nyon, and Mc.  Alice's only posts with content have encouraged discussion in something that generates opinion less noise that is actively unhelpful for town, and votes Snow for wishy washiness, which I don't quite agree with personally.  Nyon has said nothing of worth today at all other then the initial voteblocker stuff, and has me pegging him as scumlurker until he gets some really damn good content soon.  Mc has been gone over, and while I do feel it possible that it's just newbie mistakes, I'm not feeling anyone who really deserves a vote more, other then maybe Alice, who I'm hesitant to switch to since lack of posts and also lack of votes when we only have slightly more then 5 hours left.

Ugh, it's probably pointless, but:

##Unvote: Metroid
##Vote: Alice

I get the feeling the switch is probably pointless, and that I'll probably have to end up switching to someone I rather not vote for for survival anyways, but I rather see Alice rather then MC go at this point.  Will claim in ~2 hours if it looks like my head is still on the chopping block at that point.

[Cotigo]

Uhmhlnblbh no coffee in the house, just woke up, got to go to work soon, will be at work at deadline so I'll try to drop in during my lunch break but we'll see how that all plays out.

Responding to the most obvious thing to respond to

Okay, seriously. What does saying this accomplish, exactly?

Intended accomplishment:  Getting Carth out of L-3.  Actual accomplishment: Drawing attention to myself.

Makkotah then pulls an anti-Laggy and picks out Lurker!Alice to focus his attention on. Jeez, man, the game's been up for about 8 hours. People have other things to do than play Mafia, believe it or not.

How exactly is going after Lurker!Alice pulling an anti-Laggy?

No original content here; disagreeing with the MC case and nodding his head along with Kilga. Desperately trying to look like he's contributing when really he isn't.
Explain exactly why you needed to come to Xanth's defense here. I'd have assumed Xanth was a better speaker of Xanth than you, and he's a big boy who can look after himself.

I felt like I understood what Xanth was talking about but then I didn't. 

His vote was still lying on Ciato that whole time, and Ciato doesn't come up in his suspicions at all, even for a throwaway 'needs to post'.

Addressed this already in one of those posts you couldn't be bothered to address.  Reading is fun.

Then we have this.
Quote from: Makkotah
Aside from that, still don't see why D1 LaL for pressure is bad, etc., saying "D1 LaL for pressure is bad because D1 LaL is bad" doesn't mean much to me coming from non-confirmed-town people playing in this game.
Too much talking in Day 1 is very very bad. Kilga will attest to this, but in MotK the worst games are inevitably the ones where Day 1 takes up half the post count. The simple fact is that it's freaking Day 1 - there isn't a mountain of content to discuss, and as a result there are players who simply out of playstyle try to avoid saying too much. And of course, scum benefits from this because people will argue semantics over tiny points that aren't really all that scummy.

Too much talking is bad?  Really?  lolkay.  Day 1 taking up half the post count sounds like more of a problem with people not talking enough on other days. 

[Excal]

May not be here for deadline, so a note for Sasarai and the playerbase as a whole.  Remember that the deadline is soft, so long as there is conversation, the Day will not end.  But, a fifteen minute lull will end the day automatically, with no chance for sudden death with a tie.

[Alice]

Agh, have surprisingly less time right now than I had expected, will be back in a couple hours, only posting major points right now:

I fail to see how the "m_c reporting charge" is weak, I mean yes Peyton was posting walls of reporter-style posts but if you read them they contained actual valid points and opinions, which is what is lacking here.

I assumed that Scum were on the Rat jokevote train from a simple statistics argument, come on here, people, given a wagon that builds that rapidly and that easily, there is almost certainly at least one Scum on it simply because there are a nontrivial amount of Scum in the game to begin with, and it's exceedingly likely that one of them decided that hopping onto Rat was a good idea.

Glen's latest post is awful - so are my posts generating discussion, or noise? Which is it? No, I wasn't voting Snow for wishy-washiness, I was voting him for agreeing with Rat's post, then throwing its content out because of (and I quote) "meh", and then voting Rat for no appreciable reason. Lern2read. Your entire post is awful, all of your opinions read like something along the lines of "maybe X but also perhaps Y and perchance also Z really I'm not sure now come to think of it". Also - you spend most of your post slamming m_c, and then vote me over...two lines complaining that you disagreed with my reasons for voting Snow (which you also got wrong, see above). Le what, monsieur?

Somewhat tempted to actually vote him if it weren't for the fact that it all comes off far more as "completely clueless noob" than someone actually Scummy. Really, I'm not sure of what to make of this - Laggy and m_c are tied in how likely I'd like to vote for them, but Glen's latest post is messing up my read of Laggy horribly, and m_c still hasn't actually produced anything terribly useful. Not comfortable with my vote for Snow anymore - still disagree with him re: Carthrat, but other than that his more recent content is at least somewhat reasonable, not to mention at least useful (unlike, say, Glen's and m_c's), so ##Unvote, ##Vote: metroid_composite

[metroid composite]

Alright, I suppose I should clear a few things up.

I'll admit to intentionally drawing some attention since I wanted to read reactions (being the third vote in the jokevote train, etc).  Early in the day, this is fine.  Late in the day, being distracting doesn't help town.  So...I should probably answer a few questions about myself.


Asking post: Post went through a few revisions
Revision 1: first I was going to post a weak analysis
Revision 2: Then I realized we actually have night 0 role information so I was going to post "whoa, wait, some people might have role information so day 1 doesn't have to be pure guesswork like Cthulu/Meme"
Revision 3: I realized that if people don't want to reveal role information this early, rolefishing like that would be bad.  At this point I was unsure how the day was going to proceed, so I asked if posting a flimsy argument was a good idea.

Summary post:
People around me were chasing lurkers.  The problem I have with this is that they were focusing on two people and there were a lot more lurkers.  This would make it very easy for a scum-lurk to slip through the cracks.  In the mean time I used the post to organize my own thoughts--since other people were going after lurkers, I would go after people who had posted things, but had little real content.  In particular:
Candidate #1: Zenny (had not moved his joke vote)
Candidate #2: Xanth (Jumped on the anti-Laggy train for what I misread as almost reportering SnowFire)
Candidate #3: Kilga (I fully expected to get some criticism over the "should I post my grasping-at-straws theory?" and...criticism of that was the sum-total of Kigla's content at the time).
Candidate #4: Noyn (Four posts, all only about himself and his situation.  Wanted to give him time to log back in before pursuing).
Candidate #5: Quiet Rain (pursued LAL, but unlike Laggy had not contributed in other ways.  Hesitant here due to IRL excuse, though).

Oops, meant to move my vote: this post also went through a couple revisions.
#1: Stating a case on Zenny, with the fact that he had not moved his joke vote or given strong opinions on players despite being around recently.
#2: Oh crap, Ninja'd by Zenny.  Delete half my post.  I have to leave in 5 minutes, so...process of elimination: IRL excuse makes me wary of pushing QR, Noyn hasn't been gone long enough to complain, Kilga's had fine content, which leaves Xanth.

I'd like to take a moment and point out that, if I actually cared about appearing innocent, I had a very easy option--don't post the scatterbrained post, lurk for 4 more hours, and then come across as coherent when I do post.

New people show up, and wtf Yoshiken
I find the post seriously flawed, but seriously flawed in a seemingly random manner.  Internally inconsistent with "Early LAL is bad.  Pressure votes are good early."  Inconsistent with criticizing one of my bigger content posts, and praising what I saw as a weak post of mine.  Not a logically strong post, but the weak logic was not slanted in...any direction at all that I could see.  So I concluded probably town, and did not move my vote.

Once again, IF my primary goal was to appear innocent, THEN I could easily vote for Yoshi here.  Or vote for Laggy/Glen for the OMGUS.  My actual thoughts here were "I think the bad logic is pretty undirected, so not a scumtell.  I also want to make it clear that I don't find Laggy/Glen's jumping on Yoshi to be unreasonable, as Yoshi's post does have issues."

More Yoshi
I find Yoshi to be steadily improving at this point, and also that he has a good point on Laggy/Glen so I start pressuring Laggy/Glen with questions.  I take another look over SnowFire to see if people have a point, and feel that I don't agree.  To review, my thoughts were:
"need more actual content": Xanth/Zenny/Noyn
"Answer my damn questions": Laggy/Glen
"Still need to read closely and analyze": Ciato/Alice/Carthrat/QR (QR had more content by this point, and it hadn't left a strong impression on me)
"Not pursuing": SnowFire/Yoshi
(With Kilga/Tai acting townie enough to not be on my radar).

Still not moving my post from Xanth
As you'll notice above, SnowFire/Yoshi I wasn't pursuing.  Laggy/Glen I was happy to pressure with questions, and would re-evaluate when he responded.  Xanth had posted a quick defence post, and still had nothing I felt I could evaluate him by; still not happy with Xanth.  Pressure stays there (barring an Alice/Ciato reread that I didn't end up having time for).

Xanth posts
Xanth posts.  I feel that pressure votes should actually be pressure votes, so I drop all other analysis to comb over Xanth.  End up...not ecstatically happy, but satisfied.  In the mean time, I notice it's been two days with zero content from Noyn, I check and he had logged in earlier.  Really don't want to let him get away with that, so I put my vote there.

I fully realized it couldn't really stay there, and needed to go onto one of the trains.  So...ruling out Snowfire, me, Kilga, Tai, Xanth, Yoshi, Noyn for now, this means:
Zenny/Laggy-Glen/Ciato/Alice/Carthrat/QR-Rou

Zenny shows up, and talks sense.  Strike him off.  I honestly didn't want to vote for a replacement 5 hours after they're replaced; give them time to produce content; that eliminates Laggy-Glen and QR-Rou.  Ciato's been flying waaaaay under my radar--actually that makes me a bit uncomfortable; I'll post an analysis of her after this.  Which leaves...

Windup post
Pressure Alice with a bunch of things that have been bugging me.  Prepare to go after Carthrat, but make sure I'm not just attacking his playstyle like I was going to attack Zenny for not moving his jokevote.

Post case on Carthrat
I and others had already pointed out the tunneling.  I let others defend my posts (the nature of mafia means other people's opinions of my content are probably more valuable than my own).  Which leaves some of my side observations, alternative theories for Rat's behavior and why I feel I can rule them out.  Also, the SnowFire train...could be nothing, but it's the closest I've seen to player coordination

Oh yeah, question for people saying "It's not much, but metroid composite is the best person to pursue day 1":

If I was scum, do you really think I'd say "that user is acting like he has a guilty cop result on me and I'm not a miller"?  Maybe that would be a desperation scum move, but bear in mind that I was not under much pressure at the time (only one vote on me).


Anyhow, enough about me.  I still haven't fully evaluated Alice, which is bad of me (just from a skim, did not feel good about Alice logic, but I felt the same way about Yoshi from a skim).  Will take a closer look at Ciato as promised.

[Glen Veil]

Alice, my post was accusing you of encouraging discussion that provides nothing but noise.  In this paragraph of your first main post:

Anyway! Noyn is probably the main person to discuss today: I pretty much agree with Kilga here, I'm not sure it gives a nice swing alignment-wise. Also, because the opening post stated that such events "usually" only lasted one day does not mean that they universally will - and I'm also extremely perplexed at Laggy's behaviour: first he votes me over lurking, while complaining about the Rat train, then he backpedals stating that "oh hey maybe voting Rat to L-2 might be a good idea after all for we get useful information this way!"...um, why, how? It's Day freaking One.

Bolded the relevant first sentence, you suggested we focus our discussion on Noyn, and yet Noyn hasn't posted anything other then his vote being blocked, ergo I come to the conclusion that you're suggesting we pointlessly discuss WIFOM matters regarding why Noyn got vote blocked.  Sure it may be something to consider later, but until we have more role information later on all discussion on this matter does is add unneeded content to sift through for today.  Generating discussion is all fine and dandy, but only when the discussion is useful.  That first sentence alone reads to me like "Hey guys, lets waste our time on something that is absolutely pointless to discuss for today."

Also, there was very little in that post slamming Mc, most of it was in regards to other who I did not give opinions on previously in my first post, which did actually have content against Mc.

Going to contradict myself on my promise to claim since the deadline is apparently soft, I rather not reveal my role if necessary, and a majority of people don't seem to be around anyways.  Going to admit that I thought Alice and Mc were equal on votes not including myself, which was why I switched, but not seeing a reason to go back currently because I'm not really happy with Alice's rebuttal at all.

[SnowFire]

Ack, WoTs incoming.  Around for quick lunch post when I realized that I will almost certainly not be around for deadline unless it gets extended due to talk / Excal being out.

Roukanken, give me a second, will try to return to your post in my next post.

Carthrat's latest post is definitely better.  Thanks for saying outright "no comments = null read" at least.

Vote placement: Still basically happy with leaving vote on Carthrat if it comes to it.  Glen's latest posts have not been reassuring on a skim so would not be overly opposed to a Laggy/Glen lynch at this point, despite kneejerking Town-Laggy earlier.  Am still feeling kneejerk Town-MC...  or at least "null read MC-MC" so would be opposed to an MC lynch...  though I need to parse mc's latest post more carefully.  I see what you're trying to say MC, but be warned that a lot of this looks like "Wine in Front of Me" arguments.  Would scum do action X?  Well, maybe not normally, but if everyone thinks that, then maybe scum will do it to look towny.  Etc.  Could maybe be convinced by an Alice lynch as well, would have to reread.  Also Noyn where are you.

Since if I want to move my vote I probably have to move it now, will post again shortly by end of break to either confirm Rat vote or move it elsewhere.

Glen ninja.  Hmm.  Interesting.

[Kilgamayan]

MC: Please don't be playing the "If I were scum" card, it's a bunch of WIFOM, and to answer your question in particular, yes, I think you might say that, just so you could point at it later and ask why you would do it. (Cut by SnowFire who agrees.)

Also I'll come out and say that I don't believe Rat has been low content, volume != content and basically everything he's said has been meaningful. There are plenty of players that don't believe in talking about people about which they have nothing to say, that's a playstyle choice, not a scumtell, and as such I don't buy the tunneling charge from anyone that brought it up.

Can't really begrudge anyone voting MC at this point, even if I don't want to. At this point her flip will not surprise me no matter what it is.

Yoshi: My problem with you was that Laggy claimed he had no other cases at the time because he had a bunch of outside distractions and you voted him for dropping his vote anyway. It felt both really lazy and needlessly antagonistic - you could have just sat back and waited for him to get past said distractions and make a new case, and bust him later if he went a good period of time without doing so - and the only reason I didn't push you further on it was because Laggy's reaction was terrible. Other than that I've had no real problem with you; to be honest, I've barely noticed that you (and Snow) have even been playing. >_>

Wish to see where the new Alice/Glen argument goes before I remove my Glen vote. Initially I felt Glen's vote for Alice uninspiring to the point of lazy LAL, but Alice's response did indeed skip over a pretty important thing, even if I think he might be slightly overblowing it based on how I read the overall flow of Alice's post (but that's Alice's case to make) so I want to see a proper response to that. I will also throw out a question for Alice: What makes you lump Glen into the "completely clueless noob" category and not MC?

[Kilgamayan]

even if I think he might be slightly overblowing it based on how I read the overall flow of Alice's post

Realizing this might be confusing. The "he" is Glen, not Alice, and this says that I feel Glen might be overblowing how bad Alice's comments on Noyn were. (But, again, that's Alice's case to make.)

[Xanth]

Right. I said I'd be back for this evening, and here I am. Couldn't really do anything during lunch, but did at least get to read a bit. I need to get dinner, but before I disappear for that, the immediately important opinions regarding the current vote standings:

It tears at me to condemn a man for the sins of the father, especially quite so early on, even with the relatively strong feeling I was building from Laggy. That said, if the other options are Metroid and Rat then my hand is forced regardless.

I'll take another look at the arguments against Rat, but of all of the players he's the one I've found myself agreeing with the most and seriously doubt I'll see the merit in his lynch.

I've already made it clear that I get an unaided newbie read from Metroid, although would swap my vote if it would save Rat. I'll need to read the latest material before I can say for sure, but my brewing concern is in over-playing the hapless newbie card the instant it started to push votes away. May be off the mark, though, let me actually digest the posts before I get back on that.

But let's see if it's worth starting a new train or not as well. Last minute pile ups are always fun, right?


Whatever happens, let's be careful not to end the day with a tie, what with Hatbotting rather than Sudden Death. There'll be thumbs to break if we leave it to random chance.



Of completely random note, I'm getting a little weirded out by how much Kilga's been agreeing with me. No, not making an alignment observation out of that. Just weird. Anyway, dinner then deadline.

[SnowFire]

Rou: Seriously, are you trying to agree with him or disagree with him? (re: Laggy's Alice LaL vote)

I was talking about something I thought was interesting and then explaining why it was still a null tell to me.  It was *very* early Day 1 without much content to legitimately talk about.

As for Rat and lynching philosophy you're exaggerating my position and we both know it.  Think I was already pretty clear on my actual stance on this.

Also ugh time flies.

---
Laggy / Glen just shot to the top of the scumdar for obvious reasons to anyone who knows conditional probability, scum should almost always claim a powerful role if about to be lynched Day 1, so if we have say 2 townie power roles + 3 scum that looks bad.  On the other hand not comfortable with voting Glen blind without actually seeing the claim and deciding how plausible it is.  Uh, I guess I'll trust those around for deadline to assess this properly.

Still not happy with Alice, but unsure if this is even a viable train even if I decide he's worse than Rat.  Glen's call-out of the Noyn point is good, IIRC we'd pretty well exhausted that speculation by the time Alice made that post, and it does look like he might be encouraging spinning our wheels further.

Hrmm, think it's between Alice & Rat for me.  On second thought, the Rat lynch may be less viable than it looks at current, not sure I've seen much support for it beyond MC / Zenny.  (Xanth ninja: My intuition was correct here?)  So I think I actually will switch to Alice.  Urgh, I wish I had time to go back and reread him properly, but I don't, so this is something of a gut vote I'm afraid.  Just plain don't find his cases very plausible except maybe the one against Glen.

##UNVOTE: Carthrat
##VOTE: Alice

[Tohsaka Rin]

The hourglass had almost flipped the contents of its sand completely. Sasarai's adjutant stared at it dimly. In just a few more hours...

"Sir." He scraped his throat, and turned to Sasarai. "The current state of affairs is as follows... but are you sure about this?"

Day 1 Votecount

Alice (2): Cyril, Quietrain, Metroid, Glen, Snowfire
Carthrat (2): Snowfire, Taishyr, Taishyr, Metroid, Snowfire, Cyril, Snowfire, Zenny, Metroid
Glen (4): Ciato, Snowfire, Xanth, Yoshiken, Kilga, Carthrat
Taishyr (0): Taishyr, Quietrain, Metroid
Xanth (1): Xanth, Metroid, Taishyr
Ciato (0): Zenny, Quietrain
MC (2): Kilga, Carthrat, Alice, Glen, Roukanken, Alice
Kilga (0): Taishyr, Yoshiken
Zenny (0): Taishyr, Kilga, Roukanken
Yoshiken (1): Cyril, Ciato
Snowfire (0): Ciato, Alice
Noyn (0): Excal, Excal, Metroid
Excal (0): Snowfire

Not Voting: Noyn

13 chumps remain, so 7 must band together!

It is 3 hours until the hourglass runs out of sand. Of course, as long as you entertain lord Blight there is no problem.
I will be around for deadline, so there should be no irregularities there.

[Glen Veil]

@Snow

It's not that I don't want to claim my role because it's powerful and would make me vulnerable, it's more so revealing my power pretty much makes it more unhelpful then it already is, to the point of uselessness if that makes any sense.

I'll just go ahead and softclaim that it's a targeted role which success rate is inversely correlated with how many players are left, in that more players = less chance of it working theoretically.  Also once revealed it will have absolutely zero positive merit to it if scum are the least bit smart.

[Alice]

Oh, come on now Glen, you can't seriously be stating that a single short paragraph in my opening game post that basically was to the effect of "yeah, I agree with Kilga, the Noynsense is pretty much closed for now" is somehow an attempt to restart discussion around him? Seriously? I will admit my opening sentence was sort of badly worded, but you can see from reading, y'know, the rest of that paragraph, that there's not much more to discuss here.

Dislike you playing the cherry-picking-gotcha-games instead of Scumhunting, btw.

@Kilga: I'm not seeing what thing I skipped over in Glen's post at all. Unless I'm misreading both your post and your clarification post >_> As for the latter, correct me if I'm wrong here but I was under the assumption that m_c was, at one point, a regular player here. Even ignoring that point, their mistakes are different: Glen's are just over-the-top in-general awful, m_c's are more trying to sneak by with minimal content and failing. I guess I suppose I could see m_c as a somewhat clueless newbie with a strange posting style, but even then, a bunch of things don't add up.

Bleh, won't be back until about 30 minutes before deadline, should hopefully decide on a final decision regarding m_c and Glen by then.

[metroid composite]

I see what you're trying to say MC, but be warned that a lot of this looks like "Wine in Front of Me" arguments.  Would scum do action X?  Well, maybe not normally, but if everyone thinks that, then maybe scum will do it to look towny.

That's fair.  Mostly I wanted to clarify my positions at each point in the day, that, for instance, most of my attacks for the rest of the day were actually set up by the summary post, and my reactions to the SnowFire train.

And...personally I worry less about people who get themselves in the crosshairs (if they're scum, they'll hang themselves eventually) and more about people who just pass completely under the radar.  Speaking of, my Ciato analysis

Ciato

"Let's not focus on Noyn" - good.
"Laggy/Tai/Yoshi umm...headaches.  LAL is an easy way to be lazy." - nothing here to work with.
"Laggy, Tai, and Yoshi read fairly neutrally" - Hmm...roughly the same as my opinion at the time, with Tai a bit above neutral.
"SnowFire's jump on and off of Rat during jokevote phase is really questionable, and case on Laggy is frivolous." - kinda weak, actually--doesn't comment on SnowFire's most recent post at the time, points to jokephase stuff.  And...why SnowFire over Xanth, whom Ciato doesn't mention?
"QR just lurker jumping = null read." - nothing here to work with.
"MC has given the most town vibes." - Given Ciato knows how I think...I can see it.

Post #2

"Wtf Yoshi attack on SnowFire, and SnowFire train building" - Yeah, I attacked both of these myself.
"MC reporter charges are BS" - Agree >_>
"Yoshi is constantly trying to stick charges" - Hmm...quick skim over Yoshi's posts...

Alice/Kilga/Tai read best to me so far. Laggy > SnowFire > QR > Zenny/MC for worst, methinks.

The list of worst suspects isn't so unreasonable outside of SnowFire as his #2.  Wait...what the hell?  Yoshi: why did Alice read as the most town to you?  W.T.F.?
"Rat does not impress" - Agree.
"Xanth makes good points" - Mmm...neutral on this; wasn't super happy about Xanth's points.
"QR needs to appear" - consistent pressure, and agreed
"Need to reread Laggy" - ok
"Stop the LAL talk" - agree, had been saying myself.

I find myself agreeing with her a lot, which is good, but partially because she's repeating stuff I or others have already said, which is bad.  She pushes us away from discussions that were distracting at that point (LAL, rolespeculation on Noyn).  I'm feeling quite a bit less happy about her case on SnowFire than I did on first read (zero mention of Xanth who did something similar, despite brief comments on several in the same post).  Yoshi case...hmm, I'm not sure.  Might have to reread Yoshi.

Also, she needs to show up and move her vote.  And I'd like to hear her thoughts on Alice's actual posts, whom she curiously doesn't comment on despite comments on most other people that were acting weird.

Feeling a fair bit less comfortable about her now, and would really like to see another post.

[Luther Lansfeld]

I've been pretty spacy and under content this game... unfortunately I find Day 1 ridiculously boring and I try my hardest to force myself to participate but yeah, it's difficult for me~

I am basically going to directly oppose an mc lynching period. I will look at her harder in future days but her mistakes feel clearly like a new person's mistakes and I am annoyed at the misconstruction trying to make her look like a villain.

I think when you get thrown into a game a couple days in that cherry picking is alright, so meh.

Uhhh... I still don't like Yoshi very much but it seems clear that I am the only person who thinks so. I will think about who I like least of Alice/Glen/whoever.

I think that both Laggy and Glen have played a little suspiciously, but Alice is his usual neverpresent self as well as me disagreeing with almost everything he's said so far. I don't really like Alice's tone at all in the last post, but I can't justify why. It just feels like he is trying really hard to put people in a negative light? I'm not certain. I think I like Alice less overall than Glen.

Uh, being summoned back to work, may not be back before deadline~

##UNVOTE: Yoshi
##VOTE: Alice

[Kilgamayan]

Alice: The thing to which I referred was the statement Glen bolded, that Noyn was "probably the main person to discuss today". That being said, you brought up the reason I felt Glen was overblowing it a bit; you quickly agreed with me and then moved on to something else entirely before the paragraph was even half-over. Disagree with Snowfire's assessment that Noyn discussion was "pretty well exhausted"; I had only just made my Votelessness Syndrome post roughly an hour prior, so I don't begrudge Alice wanting to get his opinion in there.

Xanth: I tend to agree with people I think are right. I do this to Rat a lot on Day 1 too, I think he just takes it in stride at this point. If you really want me too, though, I can invite Axem Red back into the game. >_>

Cut by Ciato, getting this out and then reading that.

[Taishyr]

Okay, semi-low on time, this reread focused on the four vote leaders - Alice/Rat/Glen/MC.

I've commented on MC multiple times. Basically I'm reading and still reading it as newbie town, think the case is more fabricated against her than is actually present. Eliminating as such from the list...

Rat: Skipping pages 2/3, sorry but those are mostly irrev. Posts this page 4. See, I think MC's getting badly twisted by Kilga/Rat here: the initial Xanth vote was for clarification, when pressed she said she was willing to keep it there at that time for x reasons, people interp'd x reasons as the reasons she voted originally, which badly doesn't seem to be the actual case. Kilga's a bit more guilty of this one, Carthrat's more reasonable. Page 5 post here, mainly defense against MC/rebuttal for three paragraphs, and then a one page quick diversion on other suspicious individuals before going for LaggyGlen.

Alice: First post is page 4! And it's pretty much entirely catchup, although he does call Kilga out for the Zenthor vote which was a move I supported in a later post (full disclosure and all). The other note? Voting MC for reporteriness... which doesn't really address the MC case on Yoshiken. Right. Two posts later swaps, though, over to SnowFire for the weirdness in his own Laggy vote, and while it's pit nicks I can't say I'm not guilty there either. Returns page 6, need to reread but no real complaints on a skim.

Glen/Laggy:

As Laggy, votes Alice during jokevote phase for lurkering, sticks to vote and justifies based on this having been a scum tactic for him (referencing, I do believe, MotK games where Alice has lurkscummed heavily before). Notes Rat has shown up unlike Alice, but hasn't said anything further down in page 2. Does some mild responding in page 3 including the unvote of Rat, votes Yoshi for contrariness. here, then Glen subs in, votes for MC here. Feels like the vote misses the point of what MC noted about SnowFire's callout of Rat, posts page 6 with a paragraph and then "uhhh I guess I don't have as much as I thought, abandon target!" And goes for Alice. And... there's been a mess but it's all on this page, you can read.

Rereading, I would also support a Yoshi lynch - feels like he's been pushing attacks aggressively on multiple people with very little backing (MC, Laggy, myself some) and while he's engaged some of those concerns I'm not terribly liking what I'm seeing (using the standby "you're just prodding for anything!" on Laggy (though this was defended well later, it was still used with little backing initially which makes me leery of letting him loose on that), backing off and admitting MC did provide opinions when I pressed even if he tried to cage it, then proceeding to misrepresent me by saying I'd had no strong stances).

(NINJA: Yeah, also noticed Ciatosilence, really wanna hear more there. Was getting not much to nothing from what I was reading but was mainly absent on and off the past few days so. NINJAX2 Hi Ciato no you aren't really alone but. Also understand busy! Also wanna hear more~!)

So, for now and since I should make a stand on the candidates put forward,

##UNVOTE: Xanth
##VOTE: Laggy/Glen Veil

I'm still not confident on this (hey I'm not taking a strong stand Yoshi?!?) but of the current people I'm favoring him over Alice/Rat/MC. I should reread Alice, but. For now, gonna take a short break, will be around on-off for most of the time up to deadline if not all the time.

[Xanth]

Taishyr: I'm not really sure what else to say other than to agree to disagree. The cherry picking, however, is elementary: using the metagaming that backed his case while conveniently ignoring the meta that contradicted it. Very simple, very bad. The reaction to this being pointed out being to basically just drop the meta reasoning as if it never existed just makes it worse. You're supposed to mold your case to fit the evidence, not mold the evidence to fit the case, and town has no reason to be doing the latter (yes it happens often enough, usually from tunnelling, OMGUS or the like, but this was nothing like that). Alarm bells! Alarm bells!

Metroid reviewing Metroid is kind of getting beyond silly. I've no clue what that's even supposed to be for, other than for positive reinforcement, which is again scum-leaning. Quite the lean at that, even ignoring the obvious silly WIFOM stuff. It's like an immediate question as to how much can the newbie card be pushed before my vote needs to go down.

Alice's 'scum by statistics' is utter bollocks and a weird thing to stick to (you may as well generate an arbitrary set of four people not including yourself and assume that one of them is scum (yes I'm assuming three scum, not that it's affected anything I've done yet)), but don't have the same reaction to the aggressiveness that's coming out elsewhere, as it's fairly standard Alice by my mark.

...

Urgh, getting horribly distracted here. Let's get this out before another ten posts beat it into the thread. I'd certainly be happier with an Alice lynch than a Metroid or Rat lynch, but I'm not really feeling the need for a last minute wobble with LagGlen out in front.