DL Mafia GAME OVER Scum Win

[COMBO BREAKER]

Scum has a message for you, traitor.


(This is still Soppy, in case anyone is wondering)

[Alice Margatroid]

Probably should have attached a NWS warning to that flash for some of the language used. I know there's a "4chan" label, but still, I don't want to get anyone in trouble because they decided to listen to the flash around other people.

Cut by what is probably the most appropriate account to do so.

[Alice Margatroid]

Bruins did it, Celtics are halfway there. Great. Not really in a Mafia mood after that game, especially since I knew exactly how things were going to end after Kendrick Perkins's second technical "foul" but stupidly decided to watch anyway, but a promise is a promise, and the DL Mafia crowd is the last group of people I expect to be sympathetic to the plight of Boston sports, so here we go.

Roukan's vote appears to be rooted in his major wall here. He concludes said wall with "I want to give Glen until Day 2" which is irksome in how it changes to "I want to hammer Glan right now" in overtime with no apparent in-between, but he did also claim not being able to see the Yoshi case. His approach to Alice, on the other hand, is a little half-hearted, and I wish we could have seen that explained further than what just appears to be a player meta pass.

Not at all happy with how Noyn lurked through the day, for as obvious as that is. We never got the post promised here and if there's any one post I want to see at the beginning of Day 2 it'll be that one.

Snowfire looks particularly bad on a reread. This line of his is particularly amusing:

My case on Rat is slightly more direct: Tunneling + low content is suspicious no matter who does it.

Because I feel it describes most of his day's behaviour regarding Rat to a degree. It seems like he has pretty flimsy reasons to keep his vote on Rat every time it comes up. Here, for example, there's little to no explanation for why his vote is still on Rat as opposed to being moved to Yoshi (in particular there is no explanation why Snow disagrees with the things he disagrees with). He also calls Rat pursuing one person a "smokescreen" at one point - what does that even mean? This sounds like just throwing out negative buzzwords to make someone sound worse. A lot of the rest of what he posted falls into one of three categories:

- Waffling and/or forming an indecisive/neutral conclusion (pretty good example here)
- Definitions and game theory discussion
- Stating things that happened (pretty good example of this and the above here, this is your typical active lurk post)

Admittedly he does have some opinions on people every so often but they get lost in the chaff and usually aren't explained too thoroughly.

His day ends with the switch to Alice, which is pretty weak, combination of gut (ugh) and not finding Alice's cases "plausible", a statement he did not bother explaining either time he brought it up. This pretty much reads as no reason at all, to be honest. Nothing about why he doesn't think Alice's cases are plausible, just that they aren't. Hard to believe a statement like that with no backing. This generally applies to Ciato as well.

This will be my last post of this real-life night; I'll be back tomorrow some time to take a look at the two day-end wagons and see if I can make anything of them.

[Alice Margatroid]

So the Alice wagon got started by our lynchee, which doesn't say a whole lot other than that's what Glen actually thought (and I still think he was overblowing that one line that got tossed around for a while). Moving on from there.

Snowfire's vote I've already discussed. Founded on nothing other than two separate occasions of an unexplained "don't find Alice's cases very plausible". Still looks bad.

Ciato's vote I discussed right after it happened. Willing to give this one a little slack, though, because I know Ciato tends to be a "feelings" player (not that she can't play the pure logic game, of course) and it has worked for her in the recent past (Tony and Hilda come to mind, assuming I remember those games right) and probably further back beyond that but my memory is terrible. Still wish the tangible stuff like "disagree with everything he's said" would be explained more, even with just a couple of examples, but with Glen's flip she's not an immediate concern, and it looks like she's at least giving some effort to explanations with "It just feels like he is trying really hard to put people in a negative light".

MC's vote actually looks the best of the four. There are bits and pieces of it that I kinda wave my hand at - Alice tends to use *ahem* strong language so that's not really a tell in his case, and Snowfire DID agree with Rat about a time lapse being necessary for someone to qualify as a lurker so Alice was correct there - but on the whole it looks to be a concentrated effort to point out things she sees wrong with Alice and, more importantly, WHY she think they're wrong. Suddenly less concerning as a result.

Splitting post here, the Glen train part of this write-up is a lot longer and it makes more sense to cut between the two trains than to cut in the middle of one.

[Alice Margatroid]

Now for the Lagglen wagon. I'll be leaving myself out of this since it's pointless to publicly judge my own actions.

Most of what I remembered Xanth's vote being for was the metagame cherrypicking, but in reading back over his progression throughout the day I see that the vote evolved with him, so he looks okay to me. Only thing of his that's putting me off is the part of this post where he talks about avoiding needing Hatbot as a tiebreaker, since I've seen that sort of "helpful game advice" line from scum so many times in the past. It's the only thing I hold against him, though, so it's probably just generic Mafia paranoia over nothing.

Suddenly a little more wary of Yoshi in light of the Lagglen flip. Reading over his posts again for the umpteenth time, I do start to see a "throw shit out to see what sticks" sort of strategy (I think it was Ciato that first mentioned this maybe?) while providing not a whole lot of continued selling of his own vote; he more or less dismisses Glen's MC case on the grounds that MC seems more newbie than scummy (despite having MC actively listed as one of his worst reads) and otherwise tends to spend more time getting caught up with MC over less relevant things than actually selling his case. Dislike his end-of-day disappearance after claiming he'd be around; possible that something came up in real life, sure, but egh, it hurts not having further Glen thoughts or the Tai reread results.

Rat, what is up with the switch off of MC? You seem all gung-ho on keeping your vote on MC ("naysayers be damned") but then just kinda flop over to Glen in the same post. You say Glen just listed MC's actions; while he did indeed list several of her actions, he accompanied most of them with the issue he had with them. In particular:

States a dislike of Yoshi's posts, but stays on Xanth on an initial vote that strikes me as simply asking for clarification, and there are no posts from Xanth imbetween for her to change the reason to anything other then clarification.  Not understanding logic of sitting on a vote for someone you simply want clarification on when there is someone you actually find suspicious.

Bolding mine. It is very odd that you'd say you "can't see the case he's made" when the bolded is actually one of the things you busted MC for yourself (in fact, you bring it up yourself in that very same post!) I'm not seeing what made Glen suddenly worse than MC to you, and I'm having a hard time buying "I can't see his case" in light of his using at least one point that you yourself used previously and then used again immediately after him.

Roukan I've already spoken my piece about. In light of other stuff, though, he's suddenly lower priority; I've decided I'm somewhat willing to let him use "Alice being Alice" as an excuse to not vote Alice, at least for the time being.

Tai...oh dear.

Glen/Laggy:

As Laggy, votes Alice during jokevote phase for lurkering, sticks to vote and justifies based on this having been a scum tactic for him (referencing, I do believe, MotK games where Alice has lurkscummed heavily before). Notes Rat has shown up unlike Alice, but hasn't said anything further down in page 2. Does some mild responding in page 3 including the unvote of Rat, votes Yoshi for contrariness. here, then Glen subs in, votes for MC here. Feels like the vote misses the point of what MC noted about SnowFire's callout of Rat, posts page 6 with a paragraph and then "uhhh I guess I don't have as much as I thought, abandon target!" And goes for Alice. And... there's been a mess but it's all on this page, you can read.

...

##VOTE: Laggy/Glen Veil[/b]

I'm still not confident on this (hey I'm not taking a strong stand Yoshi?!?) but of the current people I'm favoring him over Alice/Rat/MC. I should reread Alice, but. For now, gonna take a short break, will be around on-off for most of the time up to deadline if not all the time.

I didn't realize how reportery this was until I just went back and checked it now. This is nothing but a list of what Laggy and Glen has done, with the only thing remotely close to an opinion being his interpretation of Glen's Page 6 post (an interpretation I don't entirely like, given I had done the same thing regarding Zenny earlier). Nothing in there about why Lagglen is bad, nothing about why he's worse than Alice or Rat (or MC but given Tai's stance on MC this is more forgiveable). Just a vote. Ick. With all the stuff thrown around about how reporting is bad, I'm surprised no one caught this, since it's about as reportery as one can get. Tai's overtime stuff could go either way, could be town pushing for who he feels is the best candidate, could be scum pushing for an absent lurker to eliminate the Glen and Alice paper trails (especially after realizing how weak his Glen vote is and deciding it would be better to push someone about which he actually has an existing strong opinion). This is #1 on my "Likeliest bandwagon vote" list.

---

On the whole, from disliking the most to disliking the least:

Snow > Ciato > MC on the Alice train, and
Tai > Rat > Yoshi > Roukan >>> Xanth on the Lagglen train. The personal issue I have with this ordering is that I otherwise had no real problems with Tai and Rat throughout the day; their votes are simply very spurious.

That's pretty much all I have for this night. A small part of me doesn't like that I left out Zenny entirely but this look long enough and there are other things I'd really rather do today. Don't know for sure who I'll be voting, and even if I did I would rather save that info until after the info we'll theoretically get from the NK.

[Excal]

Every had a bad feeling as they scattered, but it got worse as a gunshot rang through the early morning.  Rushing to the scene, they discovered the body of Budehuc's Lord, badly beaten before being shot.  While every was certain he couldn't be an imposter, they checked anyways, coming to the shocking discover that he was actually trying to unite both sides against Kefka and Luca Blight.  Or, at least, to get everyone involved running some kind of shop over at Budehuc.

CIATO - Thomas (Third Party Tenkai Star) - Has been shot.

Sadly, no information could be found on whether or not he had been successful in his endeavours.

With this, the group looked at each other, worry clear in their eyes.  Imposters among them, and now proven to be killers.


1.  Kilga
2.  Metroid Composite
3.  Yoshiken
4.  Carthrat
6.  Alice
8.  Taishyr
9.  Zenny
10. Noyn
11. Roukanken
12. Snowfire
13. Xanth

11 Remain Alive, it will take 6 votes to lynch.
Day ends in 72 hours.

[Roukanken]

Alright, I've got a chance to read these two pages properly now. Let's go.

Makkotah 132:

Intended accomplishment:  Getting Carth out of L-3.

As Tai would put it, why? L-3 on ED1 is hardly a death sentence, because a quickhammer that early in the day is point-blank suicidal.
Anti-Laggy was just a reference to how you were choosing to focus on Lurker!Alice rather than Lurker!Rat.

Addressed this already in one of those posts you couldn't be bothered to address.  Reading is fun.

A Ctrl+F of your posts gives no results for Ciato between your vote and your unvote. I'm afraid you're going to have to present where you addressed this prviously, because I can't see anything like an explanation as to why your vote was still on Ciato despite all your complaints about Alice.

MC 135:
There is a difference between 'drawing attention' and 'making a case you are well aware is poor'. As for your 'but there are other lurkers!' point, does it even make sense for scum as a team to gang up on one or two lurkers? Because that's more or less the only logical assumption you could make from that point.
LaL <> pressure voting, because SOME PEOPLE LURK ON DAY 1 REGARDLESS OF ALIGNMENT SO THE POINT IS MOOT. How many times does this have to be said?
Also your 'If I was scum' point is basically a piece of WIFOM the moment you use it as a defense.

Snowfire 141:

I was talking about something I thought was interesting and then explaining why it was still a null tell to me.  It was *very* early Day 1 without much content to legitimately talk about.

Which is why we definitely need people taking up long arduous paragraphs explaining in graphic detail points that they themselves don't agree with. Because when there's nothing to work with, of course it's a good idea to fill the topic with useless fluff!
And I apologise for the misrep, since apparently it's actually 'Carth is making sense BUT IT'S BAD SENSE AND HE'S NOT POSTING A LOT ON DAY 1'. That should be more accurate.

MC 158:
This is what I meant by the case on Alice making little sense. The point MC makes against Alice's 'Carth train probably has scum on it' involves the game being nothing beyond hard statistics, which, uh, it isn't. The fact that she then goes on to say 'Even if it IS a good idea for scum to be on wagons, it's WIFOM' is the nail in the coffin - as previously mentioned - WIFOM does not work that way, WIFOM is for two choices which appear equal with opposing payouts, and scum has more to gain from being on the wagon than Town gains from scum not being involved. Alice himself rammed this through my head in an earlier trainwreck game.

Plus less than a paragraph later, you proceed to accuse Alice of misrepping Laggy on two points that he actually made.

Zenny, scum piling onto Carthrat to pull a sudden end to D1 via train? Really? Come on. I'd give props to scumteam if they played that blatantly.

This looks like 'voting Alice over lurking while complaining about the Rat train'.

Actually, to the contrary, Zenny, you get all sorts of interesting reactions when people are at -3 or -2 to hammer, which leads to a lot more Relevant Things being said than not. It's important to note that (especially on Day 1) this is usually no firm indicator that person is actually going to be the lynch. This is a game where trains develop and how people play off of them is how you piece together the puzzle.

And this is Laggy backpedalling to say WAIT L-2 IS OKAY before dropping a vote on Carth. I don't see where he's being dishonest, really. (You've since noted this point in #195, but mentioning it at the end of the day JUST WHEN LAGGY IS ABOUT TO DIE makes it look a lot less sincere.)

MC 172:

"SnowFire doing X"--where X is not what SnowFire did.

This is a very...general assault. I'm looking over Alice's posts again, and I'm seeing nothing that really qualifies as Snowfire misrep. What exactly are you accusing him based on?

MC 183:
So the case on Yoshi revolves around how he made an accusation of someone but then voted someone else he had made a case on? When the point he made on Snowfire consisted of one sentence while he's already given several paragraphs on Laggy?
Where I WILL agree with you, though, is the point about Yoshi and Ciato, though I don't think it's enough to had people considering lynching him yesterday. Yoshi, mind clarifying exactly what Ciato said in the next post that agreed with you?

The main reason this post is so heavily oriented around MC is that my other two cases sort of disappeared around deadline and gave me nothing to work with. MC has been misrepping people left and right, agreed with a case on Alice which I still don't believe in, and gave us the fantastic 'If I were scum' WIFOM from 135.
Makkotah and Snow...are more or less the same as they were back in 126, really. Nothing to incriminate them other than silence, nothing to clear them either. Noyn now really needs to start posting, whether or not he's got a vote.

For now, ##Vote: Metroid_Composite

And now I need sleep. I wrote this all up during N1, so =_=

[Yoshiken]

Okay, working on the summary post (still) as we speak. Just some things to clarify from the end of D1.

Firstly, sorry I missed the deadline. argh illness, argh stupid sleep patterns. I know missing the deadline does nothing but make me look worse, but might as well throw out the reason I missed it, at least.

The list of worst suspects isn't so unreasonable outside of SnowFire as his #2.  Wait...what the hell?  Yoshi: why did Alice read as the most town to you?  W.T.F.?

Those three were in no particular order. They were all contributing at that point, and none had said anything I could disagree with. (This is, in other news, why Tai was on that list, only for me to make a note to reread later on - while I couldn't think of anything I disagreed with, I couldn't remember anything of note.)
As for Alice specifically there, let's look at his posts in reverse order from my post: a strong case on Snowfire that I mostly agree with, clear views on a number of cases ending with the case on you - yeah, I can see why you wouldn't like that post, but I definitely agree on the reporter charge, at least - and, uhm, that's it. He'd taken a while to show up, but the content he'd provided was good, so he was looking good at the time. (As for the rest of the day, I'm still checking through that.)

(using the standby "you're just prodding for anything!" on Laggy (though this was defended well later, it was still used with little backing initially which makes me leery of letting him loose on that), backing off and admitting MC did provide opinions when I pressed even if he tried to cage it, then proceeding to misrepresent me by saying I'd had no strong stances).

To cover these three in order:
1.

(It's important to explain yourself, at least to me.) I prefer to be fully understood than to have confusion sprout since I said too little, but.

Apparently, I'm not the same. I try to stay concise and apparently that led to some confusion in the original post.
2. Uhm. I did? I stand by the fact that most of her early content was reportery, especially the giant summary of nothing.
3. I have said I was planning a reread based around that. Assuming you have produced content, all that's going to do is draw fire to me, so.. yeah, at least wait until my reread post, I guess. If I stand by that view then and people disagree, attack me for it all you like.

Rou Ninja: Yeah, the Ciato point is was linked in the summary. Since points on Ciato are now pointless, have a contradiction:
"I basically agree with Yoshi" regarding LAL and "reads neutral" to "I basically disagree with everything Yoshi says"

[Taishyr]

Typed while waiting for N1 to end and at beginning of D2.

Yep, the Glen/Alice/Rat was mostly reportering as I was trying to break down the goddamn cases to myself, what, two hours before deadline?, in addition to having skimmed page six out of half stress, half busyness. Vote landed on Glen at that time due to not liking what I skimread on page six, before actually reading it and realizing that I was wrong. But yeah, don't blame you at -all- for saying that looks bad, looks bad to me too. I have no further defense or commentary on it - well, no, one quick thing: that was written/posted with between two and one hours left in the day. This isn't to try and excuse the quality, but mainly to go "I think people were looking at the main lynch candidates instead of me" - it likely slid past as people considered their lynch targets.

Anyways, been looking through, still don't like Yoshiken, still not terribly fond of Xanth's case setup - and also general quiet, though that's perhaps more attributable to busyness (both cases that I established day 1, exception to Xanthquiet), really wanna see more out of Ciato as I'm not terribly comfortable with what's present right now. Bitter that I was right on Glen, but I had gutchecked against on the skimread and it was only afterward that I picked up Bel-Air, but... yeah, couldn't defend, didn't know how to convince since there wasn't enough to go "no, his reasoning has been consistently solid" at the time. Bah. Definitely at fault myself there, in part.

Want to hear from Noyn because the silence on his end is grating. Kilga is Kilga. I can't read Kilga on average (hi, TOUHOU HIJACK LOL). I need to be better at that. Will start trying harder, but not getting Touhou Hijack vibes in earnest, more like Hazel vibes. Meta? Yes, definitely. So definitely not clear yet, but willing to work this through. Also will people that bicker about the use of meta please calm down now? Most of the lynch on Laggy came from mistaken slaps of "meta misuse!" and I'm sitting here now going "...yeeep, pie in face." Especially looking at Xanth there. Easy case to push, perhaps, because that meta did have flaws - but it was overblown and it started with your posting.

Hell. Back to my day 1 standby position until I have a good idea otherwise. Case incoming, but I want to read Rou's current post as well. Vote likely to land on him for now.

And eh wot to your reasoning of scum!me switching to Yoshiken, Kilga. We have a record of who everyone's voted for pretty much for that purpose, and my vote - especially early, but even later on thanks to that push - has been all over. There's probably a few good reasons why scum!me would want to vote along those lines, but like hell if I can think of any and I don't think what you've brought up is even a good one. Sorry, this occurred to me as I reread - "erasing vote record" can't really happen and to try to claim that's a bit absurd, but I understand the reason why you'd say that (more a case of misleading, but even still, if I were scum (WIFOM TIEM) jumping around like a drunk tick won't exactly be a good way to avoid attention, especially to someone without votes at the time.)

(Ciato, generic N1 kill. On the other hand, wasn't town. ... bah, not willing to think too hard on this.) Two final things, though: HEY, NOYN! How's that votelessness thing going for you? Also, I was targeted by something last night - it confused me, but apparently had no ill effects. I'm not sure what to think of that, but tossing it out for reference.

NINJA Yoshi: Amusingly I'm mellowing on you a bit, and OHNOES MISSED DEADLINE eh not everyone can be expected to hover like carrion during that time. Mainly since there is some stuff you are actively pointing out, as I'm noticing on the Rou reread, and while there's still the flaws I pointed out... mmm. Yeah, while still suspicious I'm not as concerned. Yet. Posting now ignoring further ninja.

[Xanth]

Thursday and Friday are worst for me. Luckily this has been half-burned on the night phase (although as a result I haven't generated anything new in the meantime), but a note I won't really be here until Saturday morning (~32 hours from now), at which point go figure I'll have plenty of time. I have a small gap in my schedule tomorrow, though, so may be able to be on tomorrow afternoon (~18 hours from now).

Oh, and someone appears to have acted on me last night. The wording implies it was positive (or at least not negative), so I'm just throwing this out should it need to be claimed later. Certainly do not want whoever it was to claim it or explain the result of said action.

Ninjas with lots of stuff but also similar claim of being acted upon: oh okay, guess this might be fairly common.

Oh, and Tai's still belittling my case on Laggy and reducing it to just the meta cherry picking again. Okay.

Need to stop before I keep reading everything and end up losing yet more sleep this week.

[SnowFire]

All right, this got a bit long, so response to Kilga first.  Intend to post again shortly afterward.
--

Kilga: I hope that we just have a conflict of playstyles here because I'm still kneejerking you mildly town, but...  ack.  There are a few things in my own play that I criticize in retrospect - notably being totally wrong about Lagglen at the end, and misreading his sorta-roleclaim - but you're attacking me on being SnowFire, as best I can tell.

Executive summary:

* I definitely was not a lurker Day 1, active or otherwise, so um wat.  Plenty of opinions on record, some of which drew fire and were debated.
* I did discuss people for whom I still had a null tell on, and explained why.  I think this is pro-town myself, get opinions and reasons on the record.  If you're hitting people just for having null tells on Day 1, I hope you're hitting Rat as well (see http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php/topic,4995.msg108733.html#msg108733 ).
* Yeah, I agree I didn't explain the Alice vote as well as I wanted to, but I ran out of time, and said as much ( http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php/topic,4995.msg108784.html#msg108784 ).  I was running home on a theoretically one-hour lunch break and taking an hour and a half (including transit).  In general I don't want to get fired for playing Mafia.  It's not cool to lie about RL circumstances, and I'm not.

tl;dr details

Rat and my argument reversed: I didn't tunnel Rat nearly as hard as Rat tunneled MC.  Rat was my big case of the day, yes, but I talked about quite a few people.

"Waffling and/or forming an indecisive/neutral conclusion" - Damn straight, some of the cases I talked about just to reaffirm I still had a null read.  This is my playstyle, for some cases I find it pro-town to lay out why I'm not sure and don't have a good read.  Hell, not just mine, plenty of posts from others also had indecisive / neutral elements...  which is not a surprise, it's Day 1.  Also you picked a weird post to call indecisive ( http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php/topic,4995.msg108681.html#msg108681 ), I made what turned out to be a semi-controversial statement of Mafia philosophy, revised my opinion of mc downward, proposed a skeptical opinion of Alice (which turned into a vote later!), and noted Rat's tunneling of MC (when my vote previously had been more on straight lurkering).

"Definitions and game theory discussion / Stating things that happened" - That post you referenced ( http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php/topic,4995.msg108720.html#msg108720 ) was me panicing about MC taking my post to imply something it didn't.  I could have been curt and said "No, I wouldn't draw that conclusion," but I went into some detail since this is MC's first game.  Oh noes.

Otherwise, yes, I will bring up game theory that I find relevant; I believe this can be helpful and pro-town.  "Stating things that happened" is a worse charge; I don't think I was THAT reportery Day 1, but I can at least kinda see why you'd hit me for that.

"Active lurking" - Funny, this was my exact worry about Rat. 

--

The Alice case

Kilga's right that town does deserve a better explanation of my Day 1 Alice case - large parts of which are relevant for Day 2 anyway!  So here she is.  It's almost all based on his first two posts.

* Briefly regurgitates mc reporting case.  Already been over that I don't personally agree with it.  Could just be hopping on a convenient train.
* Votes me off what's either a [huge misunderstanding / intentionally critical misreading] because I can agree with part of Rat's statement and still vote him?  If somebody posted "Rainbows are pretty" I don't need to say "NO THEY'RE NOT" to vote them.  Post has a fairly excitable tone as well (I'm "disregarding everything Rat says").
* General lurkertude!  Yes Day 1 but still.  Alice's biggest contribution -unique to him- was the SnowFire case, which (Warning: I'm biased) feels forced.

[Taishyr]

Rou!

* Anti early LAL. Mainly noting this for reference. Thinking scum chose that route as an easier case to build on/hide behind/hop onto/whatever they did, wouldn't be surprised to find a scum on pro-early LAL side but not expecting many to have taken that side (maybe more stayed out of the argument instead? Elephino. Curious, tho.)

* Mmm. First post moves vote to Zenthor, but doesn't really elaborate, also nags SnowFire here for arguably better reasons in-post but that isn't where the vote lands - first post is also decently reporty but pot kettle black hi. (I'd joke about how replacements in Excal games have a bad tendency to be for scum but Xanth would no doubt call it serious, claim LaggyGlen as counterexample and thus the entire thing is wrong, and vote me. (Joking, Xanth. Love you.))

* Next post: here. Okay, where to start? Misrep of MC's case on me (she voted me, explaining that I seemed unwilling to put any pressure on her. Which was, at the time, true) though the rest on MC isn't bad. Most people seem to miss the point of Laggyvote for Alice (Alice -always- seems to lurk, Rat doesn't but has different times. (Sorry, Alice~)). Stating that recording disagreement with the MC case isn't original content on Zenny's part, when it at least commits him to that paper trail. (Zenthor replied to the rest of the issues there, IIRC). SnowFire commentary I'm not honestly positive on accuracy, would need to reread SnowFire's comments. But that post doesn't impress. Switches vote to MC at end of this.

* States intent to hammer, then lays down vote a few posts later (since there is no hammer in soft deadline time). Only thing -vaguely- of notice is that it made both my Yoshiken attempted push and (as I had expressed earlier in the topic, a few posts above Rou) the consideration of me switching to Alice rather moot, but I'm not considering this as anything but a null tell for the moment.

* D2: Replies to Zenthor/Makkotah, except it's about something that'd been covered a few times already (Zenny's excuse is that he overreacted, this has been covered early on, thus why I "defend" him here). Want to see answer to second part from Zenthor, though - I think I know where, but. MC points... mmm, WIFOM's been diluted as a definition pretty highly so trying to pin MC with that seems iffy, other points I will let MC respond to however but I don't think they're solid, reading through them (Laggy was chiding Zenthor for his PANIC BUTTON modo, not critiquing the Rat train. A few others, but again, should let MC defend herself.)

Yeah, not impressed with these cases by any measure right now.
##VOTE: Roukanken

[metroid composite]

Hmm...this is exactly why I slammed Yoshi.  Laggy jumped on Yoshi, and I realized it could be easily spun to make Laggy look bad as an OMGUS, so I wanted to diffuse the situation as I felt Laggy was somewhat justified.  Yoshi: you know...one of the best pieces of content I felt Yoshi had, is convincing me that there was a problem with Laggy/Glen's early play (for letting Carthrat off the hook so easily for content).  My opinion on Yoshi is lower now, though not, I feel, my best case.

Something that I'd been thinking over night 1:

Rat, what is up with the switch off of MC? You seem all gung-ho on keeping your vote on MC ("naysayers be damned") but then just kinda flop over to Glen in the same post. You say Glen just listed MC's actions; while he did indeed list several of her actions, he accompanied most of them with the issue he had with them. In particular:

Sums up my thoughts.  I will also add this:

I am unable to really process a case on Alice at the moment (and the people on it seem to have trouble really identifying issues with him I can easily understand anyway) and prefer the Glen lynch.

The thing is?  Glen's accusations of me hold a lot more content than Alice's do.  Alice's first post is five paragraphs long, and I'm mentioned in one single sentence, followed by a ##vote metroid_composite.  The next post where I'm mentioned...only says a vague "reportery" and "hasn't produced anything useful"--most of the post is actually talking about Glen.  The next post is similar on Glen--overall Alice never actually makes a reference to any of my individual posts, just makes extremely vague general statements such as "trying to sneak by with minimal content and failing."

Interesting that Carthrat had an issue with Glen's jump on me, and yet never really processed a case on Alice.


Next, piece of evidence, the flip: Carthrat really only presents opinions period on two people (me, Laggy/Glen) both of which I now know to be town.

So...my top case before we went into "oh day's ending, better hop on a train that could conceivably hit majority", is...only looking worse given recent events.

##Vote: Carthrat

Ciato's flip...I...really don't feel I can get much information out of.  Not so much because she's third party, as nobody really had a strong opinion on her (because she didn't really give us much to work with).

I will say that complaints towards the end of the day that the "Alice train came out of nowhere" seem kinda unfounded.

SnowFire announces discomfort with Alice (top case Carthrat)
Zenny expressed discomfort with alice (top case Carthrat)
mc Starts pressuring alice (while setting up for a Carthrat vote)

Glen jumped on to Alice shortly after subbing-in, and Laggy got IRL-disappeared before he could make a case, so that's not really sudden either.

[metroid composite]

Feel free to skip

Non-content post, just clarification on "WIFOM"

WIFOM does not work that way, WIFOM is for two choices which appear equal with opposing payouts,

You know, my understanding of WIFOM comes from meme mafia, where "scum roleblocks teammate" was called "WIFOM at best"--that's not two equal choices.  A scum player who happens to log in at the right time to see the potential to form a jokevote train has two choices: hop on train, or don't hop on train.

and scum has more to gain from being on the wagon than Town gains from scum not being involved. Alice himself rammed this through my head in an earlier trainwreck game.

What does scum gain for being on a jokevote wagon?  Past the very earlygame, people ignore the jokevote phase.

[SnowFire]

Okay, since it seems we're claiming this kind of stuff....

I was 'powered up' last night.  Sounds like a similar effect to what hit Xanth.  The result was positive.

Er, thanks, mysterious benefactor.  I don't think I'm going to claim the effect just yet either, and no need to claim who did it.

Also, in what is likely irrelevant news....

While every was certain he couldn't be an imposter, they checked anyways, coming to the shocking discover that he was actually trying to unite both sides against Kefka and Luca Blight.  Or, at least, to get everyone involved running some kind of shop over at Budehuc.

Sounds like Ciato!Thomas was a Cult Leader?  So probably no continuing effect on the game, unless she's a really weird variant that let her N1 recruit keep recruiting.

--
Responses:
Roukanken: Which is why we definitely need people taking up long arduous paragraphs explaining in graphic detail points that they themselves don't agree with. Because when there's nothing to work with, of course it's a good idea to fill the topic with useless fluff!

Are we on the same planet here?  Here's the post for reference ( http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php/topic,4995.msg108499.html#msg108499 ).  I *do* agree with what I wrote here?  I'm just saying it's a null tell due to circumstances.

That said, Kilga also hit me on "too much chaff to content" ratio.  Ugh.  Will try to be more concise, I guess, always a decent idea on general principles regardless.

Yoshi: As for Alice specifically there, let's look at his posts in reverse order from my post: a strong case on Snowfire that I mostly agree with

I don't want to be going in circles forever on this - kind of like the debate between "MC is reporting!" and "MC is being MC!" - but seriously?  A strong case?  I didn't "disregard Rat's post," I said that it contained one truism (which was irrelevant to pro-early-LaL vs. anti-early-LaL - you can be pro-early-LaL and still acknowledge that it takes time to really be a lurker) and contained one accusation that I didn't agree with (mc reporting) and there was nothing else.  Alice somehow got "no appreciably good reason" from this.  Even if we toss out the MC thing as an issue of disagreement, I think that calling Rat an active lurker at the time was wholly merited - the mc reporting charge was all he said at the time.  (Rat got somewhat better later in Day 1, yes.)

--
Suspicions: Taishyr's case on Roukanken is interesting.  Actually leaning anti-Rou at the moment, he seems prone to weird interpretations and exaggerations.  Strangely enough, I don't really agree with Kilga's case on Rat, though MC has a point.  Rat was on record as saying he didn't buy the Alice lynch and by that time of the day I believe it was pretty much Alice vs. Glen?  Certainly could buy a "lesser of two evils" lynch, though I'll let Rat correct me if I'm wrong on this.  I can't really hold Rat's harsh reading of Glen's post against him either as I fell for that too (oops, in retrospect).  Which is not to say Rat is off the hook...   oh, look, damnit, SnowFire, you're speaking up in favor of people you're still suspicious of!  And now you're typing to yourself.  Le sigh.  Let's just leave it at that I'm very conflicted about Rat right now.

##VOTE: Alice

Still the player I'm the least happy with even ignoring the lurking - like I said before, I find cases the least plausible.  He hit mc with practically no commentary and hit me on what seems to me to be a terrible case, and his later posts were indecisive / self-defense.

[metroid composite]

Okay, since it seems we're claiming this kind of stuff....

I was 'powered up' last night.  Sounds like a similar effect to what hit Xanth.  The result was positive.

Er, thanks, mysterious benefactor.  I don't think I'm going to claim the effect just yet either, and no need to claim who did it.

Me, and I'd really rather you hadn't claimed that--If I needed to roleclaim, you could have confirmed my action last night.

[Yoshiken]

Oh holy CRAP Wall of Text!

Okay, re-read... Ignoring jokevotes because I don't really think there's much there outside of Zenny's "Quicklynch WUT?!" and... yeah, I'm not really reading that either way.

Xanth + (Laggy cherry-picking meta)
MC + (First post against Tai is good) - (Reporter post! Still seeing that as... was it IIoA? Reportery*) - (weak voting logic) - (the end of this post catches my eye - Rat is suspicious for having different opinions and here, have some scumteam theories on Day One. What.) - (WIFOM - "If I were scum...") + (presents the Alice case very well)
**Tai + (LAL? Anti-LAL? How about we lynch scum, yeah?) + (good post here)
Zenny - (neutral stance on everything here) - (pure defence post)
SnowFire - (Rat case)
Kilga + (Voteless analysis - pretty much completely agreed there) ++ (those night posts. so much good content.)
Alice + (strong case on SnowFire - find myself nodding in agreement there) - - (argh this post is awful. The X/Y/Z thing you mention happened once in that post, as I see it, and you say Glen seems clueless newbie then vote for MC who... is even more of a newbie)
Rou + (that opening post is damn good)
Rat - (Glen's first post - seems to have lots of opinions ("Not understanding logic of..." "Not seeing the whole...") yet claims he "just seems to have kinda listed her actions")

* To clarify this, summary posts do two things: look like they're contributing and lead people to look back at old posts. Both of these give the impression of contribution (see Cthulhu Mafia, where me spotting a name in a post of Peyton's led to people going "It's not reporting, you're basing a case on it!" (Those weren't reporting, but that wasn't the reason why)) without actually offering anything.

** As it goes, I've realised my problem with Tai's content, and it really is nothing. It's purely phrasing - quite a few players here, myself included, use pretty strong language and phrasing to get points across, while Tai is more subtle about it, which makes the opinions seem weaker, even when there's the same level of content or more.

To MC: Reading over, it seems you still don't understand my views on your posts. Content =/= volume. Your summary post says a lot, but offers very little in the way of opinions. You say your later post had "weak logic" - that is still logic, that is better than the summary. I didn't see it as quite so weak, as opposed to reporting-and-nothing-else. Not scummy, just... really needs clearing up, methinks.
------------------------------------------
Day 2 Stuff (tired, so probably incoherent, but whatever)
Rou's post reads well to me, which helps, since I had very little with him. Tai spends way too long saying "Damn, knew Lagglen was Town" but the rest of the post is good. Seconding the calls to Noyn - literally nothing on him from my reread, so... yeah, here's where I start thinking of LaL as a feasible idea. Xanth and Tai have had opposite actions that give no information. Not worth pondering, whatever.  Tai's next post is solid enough, for all that I disagree with it.

MC: for WIFOM, I've always seen it as "There are two options. You can't say which one the opponent is more likely to do, as they'll predict that and do the opposite. Or predict that and do the opposite. Or predict that..." *cue endless chain of WIFOM logic* So, yeah, I've never heard the idea of equal chances being involved before either.

Previewing now for double ninja OH GOD WHAT. Snow: you say the active lurker charge was fair, but at the time it was "could be active lurking if I look hard enough for it." That reads as "Well, it's not too bad, but I can read it as bad if I want to!" In other words, it looks like you've picked a target, then formed the argument around that, which... I don't need to explain why that is scummy, do I?

asddsghfdh. Really not sure where to place a vote right now. MC has a lot of good and bad content, but I'm willing to give that a pass for now. Same for Alice. Rat... is difficult to read. I remember him having good content, yet my reread apparently found nothing of note. However, the more pressing concerns are Snowfire and Zenny. Neither have produced much of anything that I like, but I feel Zenny is very effectively pulling off an active lurk here, so:

##Vote: Zenny

Mental note to keep an eye on Noynoynoyn over there. Really want something from him today, especially considering how he posted nothing at all to work with yesterday. (Not seeing him as scum yet, meta meta meta, I know Noyn from another board and I know what he's like)

[Tohsaka Rin]

"So, it was that lad from Budehuc Castle, was it?"

His adjutant nodded gravely. Sasarai uttered a sigh and shook his head.

"They die so young."

Day 2 Votecount

MC (1): Roukanken
Roukanken (1): Taitoro
Carthrat (1): Metroid
Alice (1): Snowfire
Zenthor (1): Yoshiken

With eleven duelists still dueling, you need six in agreement to lynch.

There are, of course, 70 hours remaining, but you can't ever start votecounting too early.

[SnowFire]

mc: I suspected it was you, but.  There was no need to claim it just yet!  Oh, well.

I might be missing something here but I don't see why you're worried about confirmation?  Unless someone counter-claims (although...  I guess I might have been powered-up twice, though I really doubt it.  If so there was no clue to this in the PM.) we can safely assume you're telling the truth that you did power me up...  though this isn't exactly a ticket to guaranteed towniness, either, some kind of Scum Power-Charger is plausible.

[Excal]

Just for the record, there are two levels of power over your base, and one under, for all standard roles in this game.  You will be given either strong flavour, directly told, or some combination of the two as to what level you happen to be on if you change from base.  This may not be the case for non-standard roles.

That said, all bastardry is reserved for the setup, and trying to keep the meta from being a simple open and shut if everything is made public (or, as much as you happen to know right now is made public).  I will not lie, or even mislead in PMs after the Role PM, and will give clarification on any point of the gameplay if asked.

[metroid composite]

mc: I suspected it was you, but.  There was no need to claim it just yet!  Oh, well.

Yeah, realized that afterwards.  I was thinking "I have the option of using some kind of positive effect at night at least once--that barely tells scum anything".  In retrospect, it's more than I really need to reveal.

I might be missing something here but I don't see why you're worried about confirmation?

*shrug* it could prevent a mislynch, is all--I am on several people's radar.

[SnowFire]

MC's roleclaim: With Excal's post I am now very confident I was not the target of two level-up effects, so feel free to counter-claim if MC is lying.  Which I highly doubt.

Yoshi: Yes, I was somewhat unsure about the active lurking at the time, and was open about this fact - that was mid-Day 1, coulda just been Rat's Aussie hours.  My position later intensified.  Boo hiss for being frank when a Day 1 vote is tentative, like they almost always are?  Yeesh.

[metroid composite]

Just for the record, there are two levels of power over your base, and one under, for all standard roles in this game.  You will be given either strong flavour, directly told, or some combination of the two as to what level you happen to be on if you change from base.  This may not be the case for non-standard roles.

That said, all bastardry is reserved for the setup, and trying to keep the meta from being a simple open and shut if everything is made public (or, as much as you happen to know right now is made public).  I will not lie, or even mislead in PMs after the Role PM, and will give clarification on any point of the gameplay if asked.

One more question that I'd like to clarify on boosting mechanics: are people given an indication in their role PM of whether or not their job is boostable?

[Cotigo]

* Makkotah reads up.  Whimper.

Okay I'm going to respond to Rou first because that will take like 5 minutes (incidentally, whole post took 30.  damn it mafia).  To be honest I really don't feel like shoveling through text walls right now but I promise I'll try and get my thoughts out there sometime tonight.  Empty promise, perhaps.  Counterargument: Eat a dick.

Makkotah 132:

Intended accomplishment:  Getting Carth out of L-3.

As Tai would put it, why? L-3 on ED1 is hardly a death sentence, because a quickhammer that early in the day is point-blank suicidal.

I'm not sure how many times I have to say I overreacted.  Once more, with feeling! I OVERREACTED AND IN HINDSIGHT IT WAS STUPID.  I guess my thoughts at the time were that with 4 scum, 3 could be murdered and the last scum could try to win it from there?  Yeah, no, stupid.  

Addressed this already in one of those posts you couldn't be bothered to address.  Reading is fun.

A Ctrl+F of your posts gives no results for Ciato between your vote and your unvote. I'm afraid you're going to have to present where you addressed this previously, because I can't see anything like an explanation as to why your vote was still on Ciato despite all your complaints about Alice.
[/quote]

Fair enough if you're control-Fing, bad on you if you were actually reading through my posts.  Once again, with MOAR FEELING.

Re: MC.  Of course I didn't move my jokevote off.  I'm far more cautious about that than other people seem to be about it.  I was wary of people training on Rat before he even posted.  What bloody reason would I have to hop on another lurker train?  Admittedly, I didn't see Excal's note about Alice maybe needing a replacement, but in hindsight I'm glad I didn't move my vote.

Couldn't find the post number, so I linked the specific post.  This brings to mind something I feel I should clarify before the question's even asked: "But Zenny, if you were unwilling to move your vote, why have you been so 'lolwut anti-earlyLaL'?"

Answer:  Because I thought the train on Laggy was stupid, the prominent reasoning (anti-earlyLaL) behind it was asserted but never satisfactorily justified, and guess what folks, looks like I was right.

---

One quick question:  Kilga, was your insomniac ability last night an intrinsic ability or was it caused by another player?  If the latter, can you give some detail about it?  May not matter, but Cthulhu mafia has me thinking in that mindset, sooooo... aposiopesis.

---

Not urgently related to the game:  So, a question, while I'm thinking about it.  What exactly does OMGUS mean?  I thought I knew but I'm less and less certain about it.

[Cotigo]

Oh, yeah, skimming, so may as well get this out there.  Something "bad" happened to me last night.  Not going to say more unless I need to, but there it is.  Bastard moddery, I see.

Also, I think Kilga doesn't need to answer my question anymore, but I'd like an answer to it nonetheless.