DL Mafia GAME OVER Scum Win

[Kilgamayan]

Did most of my talking already, so this will be short and pretty much full of responses to new posts. Night kill aggravates me because it makes me want to do the dreaded NIGHT KILL SPECULATION dealie and no no no that's bad do not do.

Tai: I must admit I'm slightly less sympathetic to time issues in this game because of the soft deadlines. There was less of a reason to feel rushed to get a vote down, since we could just keep on talking about things to keep the game going. Also, while my secondary hypothetical regarding you seeing how weak the Glen vote was may be far-fetched, the core point of a potential dash-to-an-absent-lurker-to-kill-two-potential-paper-trails still stands.

Snow: If it's a playstyle choice, then...my stance on waffly stuff is that it's very easy for scum to use to hide behind having to provide an actual opinion and/or giving them leeway to choose whatever direction would benefit them later. The game theory stuff I may just be kneejerk reacting too, though, I have a natural distaste for that sort of thing clogging up game space. Either way, even solely founded on the waffly stuff I found Rat less guilty of active lurking, because I felt pretty much everything he said was pertinent and saw him take an obvious stance. Low post count != low content; the two CAN be related but they aren't always.

Zenny: Insomnia's inherent, as obvious as this would become in later nights when I would never have shut up until I was killed. (Side note: Advice Dog made Insomnia look much easier than it actually is. I have no end of empathy for his wishing he had other bodies off of which he could bounce ideas.)

Putting a tentative vote down for now, will change this or affirm it after Rat, Noyn and Alice have all posted something meaningful.

##Vote: Taishyr

For the reasons I discussed over the night, as well a little bit because of how he continues to treat Xanth's Lagglen case. Like I pointed out when rereading him, Xanth's Lagglen case evolved over time; Xanth was adding more reasons to it as Laggy, at the very least, did more things Xanth found scummy. It was not purely based on the meta cherrypicking thing and it seems misrep at this point to continue to label it as such.

[Taishyr]

Minor reply to Kilga post, other things forthcoming.

Given that I'm not quite sure -how- anyone could have known how the soft deadline would work (esp. with the "so long as you entertain" - by whose definition, again?) I was interested in getting that out ASAP.

It wasn't you complaining about the weak Glen vote (that's actually kinda valid) that triggered the last part of the commentary, it was the paper-trail erasing which still makes no sense as a comment.

Re: Xanth case, I never felt it was that malleable (it really just kept on sounding like harp harp harp) which means I'll go do a reread on that one and post that up. Back in a hour, tops.

[Roukanken]

Tai 211:
- First paragraph is wagon analysis that produces nothing either way.
- Second paragraph is about a post that I basically had to throw together after a quick read of the thread because I suddenly had to read the whole thing at once for the first time.
- Third paragraph:

(she voted me, explaining that I seemed unwilling to put any pressure on her. Which was, at the time, true)

The problem I had was that she basically stated that people would inherently want to protect her because of her character. It was a blatant appeal to meta that didn't even exist given that (from what I've seen) this is MC's first game.
- Fourth paragraph is IIoA/fluff.
- Last paragraph is in general 'He did things that are bad but I'll let MC defend herself'. MC has now posted several times and ignored my case on her entirely beyond the clarification of WIFOM, so what now?

Snowfire is alive again!
Okay, the only reason you would talk about players who you think are showing nulltells is to explain why you think points being raised against them are invalid. Waffling, by definition, means you aren't saying anything useful.
As for active lurking, Rat gave obvious strong opinions when he contributed, when active lurking is 'posting but saying nothing of importance'.

I *do* agree with what I wrote here?  I'm just saying it's a null tell due to circumstances.

The basic summary of that post is 'Laggy's case on Alice is okay BUT WE NEED TO WAIT FOR MODKILL except Excal probably won't modkill BUT I'M VOTING LAGGY ANYWAY BECAUSE HE WANTS TO BE LAZY ON DAY 1'. Also unimpressed with the fact you've basically said 'yeah I agree with Tai' the instant he produces a case against me in what feels like a pseudo-OMGUS.

MAKKOTAH SHISHIO! YOUR HEAD BELONGS TO ME!
Firstly apologies for missing your explanation, I sat reading through your posts for 5 minutes trying to find that one point and couldn't see it. brb kicking myself.
Okay, I'm back, and now that's over with I can say that this point is pretty gah in itself.

I was wary of people training on Rat before he even posted.  What bloody reason would I have to hop on another lurker train?

Except, uh, that was a joke wagon from RVS. You were making genuine points on Alice well after the RVS had ended and you were still voting Ciato.

I thought the train on Laggy was stupid, the prominent reasoning (anti-earlyLaL) behind it was asserted but never satisfactorily justified, and guess what folks, looks like I was right.

Nothing I can say about this other than that I think you're wrong and I'm pretty sure several other people do too.

Noyn is still non-existant. Would like to see more from Rat/Alice now that it's D2 as well. For now, given that MC hasn't bothered responding to me at all, vote stays.

(And for the record, Makkotah, OMGUS stands for Oh My God, You Suck. It's basically the term for when you vote another player simply because they just voted you.)

[Taishyr]

Xanth!

* Page 2 votes Laggy for (cherry-picking meta to fight cherry-picking meta/cherry-picking meta/meta slapfight) reasons, in addition to the LaL Alice push. Take your pick, open to interps, four interps for three dollars and we'll throw in a free intern.

* Page 4 has self defense of vote, saying that cherry-picking meta is what Laggy did when it's what both did and the meta overall shows he lurks heavily and has a high tendency to be scum when doing so (and even if Laggy wasn't referencing MotK Mafia it only backs the point up here). But okay. Also for jumping into LaL very early and pushing it hard (which Laggy did do, mind), but... okay, the problem is still that you're attacking on gameplay differences and not scumminess here with those two points (and you did so very -early- on). While gameplay styles and scumminess can be related, definitely, I'm not thinking that attacking solely based on gameplay mores+meta is at all a town move here, frankly.

* Further down, there's the response to me - and actually, lemme go get Laggy's actual quote instead of "Who cares about other games? Lurking is terrible!" since I'm pretty sure that wasn't it and this is why I -really- hate paraphrasing without sources in Mafia, and Xanth having done that probably rubbed me the wrong way.

Here's Laggy's post. In which the quote is, actually, "Whether it masked a townie or not in one particular instanced game is... pretty irrelevant to me! Lurkering of that magnitude is bad either way." In other words Xanth's conflated Laggy's own position from "One instance of a game does not make nailing someone for hardcore lurking a bad idea" to "WHO CARES ABOUT FACTS LURKING IS TERRIBAD". Yeah, fails to impress, this is exactly the same sort of thing you accuse people of doing with the "anti-LAL" stuff later - simplifying stances far too highly solely to fit your case. (Pot, meet kettle! Kettle, meet pot!)

Rest of the post... flusterbus argument on Laggy (this is about the only thing I find remotely applicable, the scattered/weird vote movements -were- an oddity) and some breakdown report/thoughts on other people.

* Page 5, more replies to the metroid case and the Laggy case, doesn't switch to metroid based on meta (high-profile scummy arguments from a newbie?! ...not actually likely scummy. Though I note wiggle room's been left to let you attack over this today, which is something I usually find odd to include but okay, putting aside for the moment.)

* Page 6, ketchup, posts were piling up so I don't blame him. Mainly just outlining where he'd stand on the votes, expressing (early?) regret over Glen but not moving since he didn't like the other two options (HAY XANTH WE HAD SOFT DEADLINE CLEARLY YA SHOULD'VE VOTED FOR WHO YOU THOUGHT WAS MOST SUSPICIOUS. No, this isn't an actual attack, more a reply in snark to Kilga). Another post here, more generic catchup commentary re: Alice potential. A quick post in day 2, waiting to hear more from him and Rat both at this point.

Basically all I see valid in your cases is the Laggy flusterbus and the MC "newbie" card (even though I wonder now how much you overstate that one being played), but town can act just as flustered under pressure if not more so ("MIDDDLEMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN"). So, yeah! Basically it boils down to that I think you cherry-picked your meta -hard- and used that as an excuse to leverage your vote, and then simplified Laggy's explanation painfully in an attempt to make the case stick further. And while you've commented on QR some you've strongly avoided the case, especially since Roukanken showed up (and while he's retracted the concerns of QR I'd still think some followup would be merited). Vote still stands on Rou for now because the commentary he adds doesn't address any of my concerns at all, really, but you're riding close second.
 

[Carthrat]

First up, I voted Glen because I didn't like Laggy's play earlier (hoping onto me, LaL-hyping early), and his post here did not appear to contain an actual case on MC; it made me somewhat leery of his motivations and on the spur of that I decided to move. As I read the post I simply couldn't see a clear focus on 'this is scummy, I will now vote for it'.

Second up, looking at Noyn! for not saying anything at all towards the last half of the day, not too much else to add there, prepared to lynch him on the basis of that alone.

I am not likely to go back to MC today anyway, I've gone over his posts in the last chunk of d1 and.. well, whilst I didn't really like reading through his big self-referencing defensive post, I actually think the way he's playing in general (quite talkative, he seems far more opinionated later on in the day than early) is, well, a bunch of typical townie traits that I like seeing, particularly out of newer players.

I'm presently pretty suspicious of Zenthor, it feels like it took him a long time on day one to come out with a 'serious' case on me, which I feel was really quite spurious-

Carthrat:  Whole argument against LaL day 1 is "IT IS NOT A LEGIT TACTIC" but quite frankly given Alice's history you saying that isn't that convincing, at least regarding him.  And, exactly what do you propose to do at a point where there's 2 pages and only one of it has anything other than jokevotes?  If nothing it puts pressure on people to start talking ASAP.

Second post:  Uhhh what.  There's a huge difference between "Alice gets away with lurking scum or town, vote" and "MC always posts in that style not enough to vote".  You conflating the two doesn't sit well at all with me.  Then there's more "LaL is bad because I say so"  and "MC's reporting is bad because it lacks strong opinions." 

Third post:  Kind of redeems himself by pointing out that MC's reasoning for having a vote on Xanth is silly.  However he says that this is the issue with MC's posts, which I guess explains the "strong opinions" bit in the last post.  Still disagree with everything else he's said.

The first point can be safely disregarded as important, I hope. The second is trying to rebut my point on metagaming, I believe; the point I was trying to make was that both stances were based on using fairly arbitrary terms to decide the lynch. The third is just "I disagree with everything", that's pretty hard to rebut, and is disagreement really criteria to determine scum? The rest of his posting during day one was extremely reactive, always responding to things put to him rather than coming out with new content. Hell, it's the same right here, in day two. Townies should be proactive hunters! And he's not; in fact I do feel he's been skimming by without contributing in general, which is pretty much the basis of active lurking (a phrase I'm starting to hate, but I hope it gets my point across.) That's enough to secure my vote today. ##Vote: Zenthor

[Cotigo]

(Side note: Advice Dog made Insomnia look much easier than it actually is.

Xanth, make talking a lot look easy? >_>

Anyway...

---

The Laggy Train.  Start with Carth since I was suspicious of him at the end of Day 1.

Guy never really makes a case on Laggy.  Just points out that early LaL is OMGBAD, and seeing no support for his MC wagon, hops off to vote Glaggen.  Somewhat reasonable given the only other person at the time with as many votes was him.  But... what's this?  Suddenly MC's no longer a suspect?  WTF?  Exactly where do you go from "I don't like the way MC's addressed some of my posts" to "I've gone over MC's day 1 posts and he's generally playing townie?"  And the entirety of his case on me is that "I don't have a case on him, also he's only responding to things and not coming out with new content."

Yeah, fuck off.  At the risk of being OMGUS (thanks, Rou), I'm still pretty comfortable voting you off the island. 

P.S. You can only get away with "Early LaL is bad because early LaL is bad u r dum" when you're fucking confirmed town.  Kilga's the only one who's given a proper fucking explanation of the reasoning behind it.

##Vote: Carthrat
---

Xanth.  Starts the case on Laggy.  Kind of confuses me that he says Laggy tried to make the LaL case stick on Alice/Carthrat[/quote] when if anything the opposite is true.  Pretty clear to me now what he meant by cherry picking meta; at first I thought it was about using meta to vote Alice while ignoring MC meta, but instead it was about ignoring the time Alice townlurked.  Finally understand that.  His later reasoning for the Laggy vote, the vote hopping/unvote with no revote/etc. makes more sense (re: is more easily accessible) to me, but was otherwise not mentioned until this point, but that's pretty minor.  I'm... not comfortable with him (voting Laggy instead of QR at first seems kind of off to me), but he's actually been more consistent than I initially believed, and I don't really have anything screaming scummy to me.

---

Yoshiken

Not much has changed regarding my opinions on him since Day 1.  He frankly has the best case on Laggy so far (LaL for pressure should demand content not attendance).  Only thing against him is my frustration at being called an active lurker, but that's not a valid argument (as opposed to my case on Carthrat, where it's frustration icing over a thinking his arguments are pisspoor cake). 

---

GuyMadeOfBees (Taishyr)

Caused me to go back and re-read Yoshiken, and... I don't really see the case.  Apparently he doesn't, either, any longer. I think he's also making too big a deal about  Xanth's case on Laggy, as well.  I...

---

Ugh.  Okay.  I've been working on this for an hour and a half and I'm going to take a break.  Need to think more on Tai and read up on Kilga and Rou.  Take some time to go over the people not on the Laggy train, too.  I've got some time to do this before work, and maybe I'll get a post out before then.  No promises, though. 

[Cotigo]

...Damn it. Hit preview before post, Zenny.  Also </quote> doesn't cancel out a <url>.  Who knew!

[Taishyr]

Still have issues with Yoshiken but I'm knocking them around in the back of my head and relooking at his posts again.

The attempt to move to Yoshiken, again, was because he was a more palatable target to me than Alice/Glen/Rat after a reread and I knew there had been mutterings about him. It failed, I switched back to Glen. Sure, it makes me look bad, but I'm willing to try and nail scum in if I think I've got a better chance doing something off the wall (again, Middleman. How many others here would honestly have argued against that suicide attempt by Fnorder? (Not that I blame him, considering how busy he was, but... it convinced me for the moment that he was town, and that Prinny was the better lynch)). So it's not entirely outside my spectra of playing, if that's why people are eyeing it askew. (Again, Glen vote, poorly backed up initially and I probably shouldn't have made it off skimread, but I did. I take the responsibility for that.)

Meh, talking about myself. I'd love to know in more detail where I'm wrong in my breakdowns on Xanth/Rou but it seems nothing's coming up in that regard thus far - may get something from Xanth himself there. Regardless, out for about seven hours or so, going to go listen to music and try to zone out.

[Carthrat]

I read MC's post after I stopped voting him and liked how they read, since they were somewhat more detailed and did not fall into the trap of simply reporting actions as those previous. I do not really think his defensive post is terribly indicative of scum, and ended up changing my mind. Additionally I expect a newish scum player to lurk a bit harder than MC has, as he, well, hasn't lurked. Could be wrong! Don't think so.

And the entirety of his case on me is that "I don't have a case on him, also he's only responding to things and not coming out with new content."

Yes that's pretty much it, I think it's pretty strong actually since scum have a tendency towards reactive play (i.e. let the townies lynch each other, producing made-up content is hard!). The fact that you only vote today after I vote for you, i.e. OMGUSing, as you suggested really only serves to show how close to this style you're actually playing.

I don't think repeating my case back to me makes it go away, no. As for the LaL issue, I explained it doesn't work because people must be given time to actually lurk before they really earn that sobriquet. However using a relatively trivial point, i.e. in this case what makes a good early-day-1 lynch policy as a present case strikes me as grasping for straws.

[Cotigo]

Kay, 30 minutes to clear my head was enough.  

Back to Tai.  I don't know if I dislike the fact that I go "he's given up the Yoshi case" and then he goes "No I haven't I was actually just thinking of switching back to Yoshi."  Don't like his Xanth case, either, but his vote's actually on Rou.  Some reading must be done.

---

Roukanken.  Day one he brings up a pretty valid point about MC's "Imouto defense" that I had missed before.  Otherwise... I don't really see how MC misunderstanding WIFOM can at all be considered "the nail in the coffin."  1) Newbie, 2)   "Two choices with equal payout?"  Technically, but you're misrepresenting it.  The situation MC talked about seems pretty WIFOMy to me.  "Well, scum could be on the train, but they might also not be on the train to look less scummy, but they might know that town knows that so they might be on the train because of it..."

... I'm willing to grant him missing my explanation of why I didn't put down a serious vote since his CRTL+Fing explanation is pretty legit, and I'm willing to grant that maybe I didn't say how I overreacted to the Carth L-3 thing obviously enough for him to not see it.  What I'm not willing to grant is that he didn't see either of them, seeing as he linked to both of them (one instance of me admitting I overreacted, and the post about my vote) in this post, calling both of them devoid of content]http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php/topic,4995.msg108751.html#msg108751]seeing as he linked to both of them (one instance of me admitting I overreacted, and the post about my vote) in this post, calling both of them devoid of content.  Considering I'm pretty high up on his list of suspicious people, is he really just skimming my posts or something?  Even the ones he's linked to?

Now, I can't really say "read Mafia more thoroughly" without being hypocritical, but it seems to me that someone trying to build a legitimate case would in fact read all the suspect's posts.  

I... think this might actually be a stronger case than my case on Rat.  I'm wary of tossing my vote around, as I've said before, so... Hm.  After I finish analyzing Tai (gonna skip Kilga for now since it's now an hour before I go to work and I'd like to do something with my morning other than Mafia) I'll re-re-read Carth and take a look at MC's case on him.
---

Back to Tai again.  His case on Rou seems pretty weak (pot kettle black?), but in line with my own now-formed opinion.  And, Tai, the thing I think is "wrong" with your Xanth analysis... well, I can't find anything immediately wrong with it (I'll think more on it later.  Stupid time consuming Mafia), but I think you're making a much bigger deal of it than it is.  Perhaps I'm wrong, I'll obsess over it later.  

---

Okay, MC's case against Carth... mostly involves Alice.  God damn it.  Okay, so Alice.  It strikes me as damn odd that Glen's post comes off as "clueless noob"-y while MC's don't, but that's minor.  Also, under the assumption that MC was a regular player here?  Uh.  Right, easy mistake to make I guess.  I can easily see not being able to process a case on Alice, horrible though her arguments are.  And... ugh.  Re-reading Carth, there's nothing I can specifically point to as scummy aside from him waffling on MC after Day 1's "Vote MC naysayers be damned."  

Rou, however, I can point to something specific that strikes me as off.  This is a good enough reason to change my votes, I think.  Still don't like Carth at all, but I don't have anything tangible on him.

##Unvote: Carthrat
##Vote: Roukanken

I'm going to go do something else. 
---

Carth Ninja.  O...kay, so MC was reporting before because she kept her vote on Xanth, but now on a re-read it's not that reportery?  Riiiiight.  I do accept the logic that newscum would lurk harder, though, so... I guess that's a valid enough point, though.

The anti-EarlyLaL thing we're just clearly never going to agree on.

I honestly don't feel like I've been lurking.  Sloughing through Mafia posts takes time and is pretty tedious, and I don't think that only bothering to respond to the most obvious things to respond to until I'm in the fucking mood for all this shit is a good point against me, but that's as bad of a counterargument as I felt your post-before-last was against me.  This is at least some sort of reasoning that isn't "he has no case!"

[Xanth]

Question: what is more fun than spending most of your free time in the first game day explaining in ever finer detail a relatively simple argument and reasoning?

If your answer is 'to continue explaining the reasoning in even finer detail in the following game day' then please do not invite me to your parties! It sure looks I won't be going to any of Tai's parties any time soon.

I will respond to these prompts unless they get really out of hand, but man is this tedious. Plus it's constantly distracting me from actually scum hunting, and frankly it's how limited I've been in that respect that I should be getting slammed for if anything, not this. This'll all but certainly suck up the free time I have today. Also Tai, you're a smart guy and all. I'd taken this for a simple misunderstanding and a difference in priorities, but the deeper this goes the less this looks like ignorance and more it looks like feigning ignorance.

Quickly first: Makkotah: Sure, Laggy removed his vote from Alice as soon as he was effectively forced to by a mod prod, but at the point of the post in question I think he was trying to force the evidence to make the case stick, because sure, who couldn't have predicted Alice as an easy lurker target for day 1?

Tai: I'll counter your bullet points with my own super-indented ones, to try and keep things clear. They hopefully correspond 1:1.

• I don't think I have anything to respond to here? I think you're just claiming that my meaning wasn't clear, which I say it is, what with my directly countering his argument.
• I did not cherry pick meta. I provided a counter-example to Laggy's use of meta to prove that it didn't prove anything. Come on dude, please tell me you're not seriously contending that.
  What didn't happen:
  Laggy: Alice has scumlurked before, therefore he is likely to be scum now!
  Xanth: But actually Alice has townlurked before, therefore he is likely to be town now!
  
  What did happen:
  Laggy: Alice has scumlurked before, therefore he is likely to be scum now!
  Xanth: But actually Alice has also townlurked before, therefore metagaming isn't particularly useful here!
  
  You also seem to still not understand why my vote drifted on to Laggy in the first place. The early LaL thing isn't something you can just write off as a difference in play styles. It's an incredibly easy place to divert a vote in the early part of - well, any day, really, if it's the sort that just lets up the instant said person talks, but in particular early-ish day one where it is completely without merit. LaL is a good principal, but you've got to understand why it's a good tool for scumhunting, and that it's very easy for scum to hide behind it when it's not actually helping town (no, I don't simply mean when the lurker in question is town). It's like hey, I did this, why did I do this? It's because it's LaL and that's therefore good for town. Bad behaviour easily excused! If you define this as a conflict of play styles, then yes, yes I will vote for bad/scummy play styles, and so should you. Bonus irony for this being about Alice's lurking.
  
  In any case, this is actually a step backwards from where you originally went after me, which was that I took this position and went for Laggy rather than QRou, the rationale being that Laggy explained himself better than QRou. That's actually a misinterpretation in and of itself, given that LaL is the explanation and not the action to explain. I was hardly happy with QRou's stealthy little peek in there, but far worse was Laggy trying to cover it with as much evidence he could slap on it, no matter how bad it was. You claim any explanation is better than nothing, I say that an explanation with wafting tones of scumtells is worse. I doubt it can resolve further than that.
• The pot did not come into contact with the kettle. There is a restraining order out on the kettle due to inappropriate spillage.
  
  By which I mean, they're completely different. I squeezed the essence of what he said, in an unflattering but evocative way, sure, whereas people completely misrepped what I was saying. Need me to put my kettle in politer terms to make the pot look darker than black? Okay. Here

Laggy wheels out the meta against Alice as a point against him, having already been on him for general lurker charges. Here I reference a game where in fact he townlurked, which pops his meta argument to a null tell. Here Laggy suddenly doesn't care about particular previous instances, because lurking is bad in general. His argument goes from lurking to lurking + metalurktells and then back to lurking flustered like it didn't matter as a result of me producing a counter example. Tell me how my representation of that was in any way misrepresentation of the content (not tone).

And in the case of the contracted pot, I've already discussed that at some point. Can't be bothered to go find it now, but it was in response to Metroid. My points and what several people were taking as my points were very crucially different.

• Don't think there's anything to respond to here either. Thanks for painting 'uncertainty' as 'wriggle room', though. It's like you're telling me that it's bad that I haven't outright cleared Metroid for acting like a newbie. Sorry!
• Again, don't think there's anything you wanted me to respond to here. Regarding the deadline, I was tired, and frankly I find it surprising I had the motivation to even try and set up a swap. I didn't like the feeling of the LagGlen lynch as it approached, but disliked the other frontrunning cases more. Your offer of Yoshiken just didn't make any sense to take, so I stuck with the case I at least had the most logic behind, regardless of the bad feeling. This is where actually having had the time to parse people more would have helped immensely, as I would have had a much easier time knowing who to go for. But hey, bank holiday weekend is here, so if this is taken as an excuse then I'm soon going to have my foot in my mouth with all of this free time.
• (this point for the unbulleted summary at the end) It boils down to cherry picking meta and simplifying Laggy's explanation, does it? Well, good! Because I didn't do either of those things. Well, not in a bad way.

Holy crap I should have left ages ago.

[metroid composite]

I have about 10 minutes here, so just quickly.

MC has now posted several times and ignored my case on her entirely beyond the clarification of WIFOM, so what now?

Umm...pretty simple reason for that: actively making cases and figuring out the setup strikes me as helping town more than posting defence posts.  I tend to skim cases people are making on me.  In the future, please bold your questions you want responses.


Anyway, let's get these questions out of the way:

As for your 'but there are other lurkers!' point, does it even make sense for scum as a team to gang up on one or two lurkers?

No, but it makes sense for scum to lurk, and there were about 5 lurkers at the time.  Laggy/QR were only pressuring two of them, which means that if they guessed the wrong lurkers, then scum would get away without pressure.  I wanted to call all the lurkers out, and pressure certain non-lurkers for more content.

Plus less than a paragraph later, you proceed to accuse Alice of misrepping Laggy on two points that he actually made.

Zenny, scum piling onto Carthrat to pull a sudden end to D1 via train? Really? Come on. I'd give props to scumteam if they played that blatantly.

This looks like 'voting Alice over lurking while complaining about the Rat train'.

Umm...yeah, you're flat out wrong here.  Laggy is not complaining about the Rat train--he's chastising Zenny for Zenny's overreaction.

And this is Laggy backpedalling to say WAIT L-2 IS OKAY before dropping a vote on Carth.

NOT backpedalling.  Though yes, I did finally catch what Alice meant about L-2 when I reread Laggy here.

"SnowFire doing X"--where X is not what SnowFire did.

This is a very...general assault. I'm looking over Alice's posts again, and I'm seeing nothing that really qualifies as Snowfire misrep. What exactly are you accusing him based on?

See here for what I meant on misrep:

No, I wasn't voting Snow for wishy-washiness, I was voting him for agreeing with Rat's post, then throwing its content out because of (and I quote) "meh", and then voting Rat for no appreciable reason.

When did...SnowFire EVER agree with Rat?  SnowFire is pro-early-LAL (disagrees with Rat) and feels that my summary post actually has a fair bit of content (disagrees with Rat).

[Tohsaka Rin]

Sasarai looked at his men unhappily.

"... Mackerel." He said this solemn word gravely. His men were silent, some fidgeting with their swords or belts.

"I said, 'no mackerel for breakfast'." Sasarai enunciated each word carefully and deliberately. The men became more nervous.

Because the cooks had prepared mackerel for breakfast.

Day 2 Votecount

MC (1): Roukanken
Roukanken (1): Taitoro
Carthrat (1): Metroid, Zenthor
Alice (1): Snowfire
Zenthor (2): Yoshiken, Carthrat
Taitoro (1): Kilgamayan
Roukanken (1): Zenthor

11 are fighting so 6 need to band together.

It is my belief that there are 50 hours remaining until the night of the second day...

[Yoshiken]

Argh, no time now, being social. Pokemon tournament tomorrow, so won't be around then. Might be around sometime later tonight, but otherwise, I'm afraid I don't have much time. Sorry guys, hope this isn't too problematic.
(Excal: Already mentioned this to you. If you managed to get a sub ready, feel free to bring them in now. I'm finding myself lower on time and more ill by the day, so... yeah. If not, no worries, will keep trying to play.)

[Excal]

Most of the people I've talked to have been...  unable to join in.

On the other hand, I suppose if push comes to shove, I can recruit dead townies.  Not like they'll actually know anything beyond what I've told them!

[Kilgamayan]

Tai: I thought the mechanics(/definitions/whatever) of the soft deadline were made pretty clear when Excal posted about them here. Even assuming your post and his were written concurrently, I don't know why you wouldn't have elaborated on your Glen vote after the fact. Am I missing something in "I'm not quite sure -how- anyone could have known how the soft deadline would work"?

It should come as no surprise to anyone that I'm in Xanth's camp on his back-and-forth with Tai.

Rat's explanation satisfies me for the most part; he does at least have the Laggy paper trail here, and, while it took me a couple of reads to figure out, I realized that his apparent flip-flop on MC is not actually a flip-flop as he's saying her later stuff was better while maintaining her earlier stuff was still not great. I don't know why he continues to use "he" in reference to MC after being corrected at least once, though. <_<

Will need to look over the Roukan and Zenny cases properly when I'm not running out the door. The Zenny case, at least, I think *might* align with my generic opinion of him because I don't remember a lot of what he's done. Having a hard time skim-understanding the Roukan case, possibly because Page 9 is a veritable deluge of words (not that the Insomniac has any right to complain about walls of text). Will need to look that one over when I get back.

[Taishyr]

Xanth: One point of clarification and one final statement, to stave off drowning the game in WoTs:

"Pot, meet kettle! Kettle, meet pot!" was actually a joking comment to myself, as I had been simplifying your stance somewhat (this was noted on by yourself, and was why I broke your case down that far). Not some excerbic attack as you made it to be, though I don't blame you for having done so.

Finally, put very simply, I fairly highly disagree with what you've provided. I do honestly think you twisted Laggy's words and case badly, and as pointed out above, I believe it to be a case worth pursuing. I think you used what was an easy case for you to defend (Laggy's LAL early) and hammered him for it relentlessly, twisting his words (clearly you disagree with this accusation, but I stand by it). You brought up the "why'd you pursue Laggy over QRou" point again, which I chose to leave behind due to analyzing mainly your posts and not the further dynamics - but that issue is still valid. *shrug* In addition, you brought up the "what Laggy said" thing again, and... yeah, you've backed off from what your original stance was there (from "He said lurking was bad!" to "Alice has townlurked before, so his meta isn't useful there!" when... that wasn't how you twisted the words the first time) In short, yeah, frankly, you're still near the top of the list and barring extraordinary circumstances will remain there for me.

...actually, one thing bothers me still outside of this: you apparently still think the one example justifies attacking vigorously/saying the meta's completely worthless. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_and_dependence Problem with that is, one point does not prove the line doesn't deviate that far. In other words your statement that he was town in one game so the meta is useless is itself, theoretically, flawed unless you can prove that the entire correlation doesn't exist, not just one independent point outside the graphed/predicted values. (Apologies to MC for torturing math to fit mafia logic, but this is where I found the issue to be problematic and bringing correlation/dependence into this seemed the best way to explain the logic issue)

I'm not going to WoT reply to this further, if you have any specific part you want replied to I'm willing to comply, but at this point it's drowning the game in text (and again, pot, kettle. I'm guilty of WoT too, more so than you at this stage in the game if only by virtue of talking more.)


NINJA Kilga: Actually I totally missed that post in the rush of posting at the end of the day. Egg x2 on face. Geezum petes, that's hella silly of me. And eh. Apparently this is the mafia game where I can't make an argument to convince anyone ever, so whatever. I'm not willing to back down because people disagree with me, but I will confess that I've kinda been going "oh, yay, yet another person thinking my cases make no sense" so.

And checking the post in question, I think my reason was

...
Feels like the vote misses the point of what MC noted about SnowFire's callout of Rat, posts page 6 with a paragraph and then "uhhh I guess I don't have as much as I thought, abandon target!"
...

but whatever. I... probably forgot about this since I did the reread and went "wait, shit, Glen reads town to me" and did that last-minute move.

More I should say, but at this point, whatever, I WoT'd again and I'd be repeating myself a lot or trying to reply based off a shitty memory span. So whatever.

[Taishyr]

I was about to try and elaborate further but then reread my statement and realized it was gibberish. Suffice it to say that: Kilga, I'm not trying to say the quoted section -is- or -should have been- good enough for the vote, but I think that's what I was calling into question there and what I voted him for - that shift of gears. But yeah.

Where is Noyn?

Seriously, this rankles at what beginning exceptions (rather reasonable) I even stood on for him. Eh.

[Excal]

Modkill notice has been sent to Noyn.  He has 24 hours to make a substantive post (ie. an I am here stub will not save him) or else he will be removed from the game.  I am currently debating whether it is worth the effort of finding a replacement at this point, for all that the usual issue of having to get used to two different styles of posting should, in this case, not be an issue given he has said nothing.

[Xanth]

Hahahahaha.

##Vote: Taishyr

No, I can't just keep on letting the lines get redrawn and things drop out and act like this is actually going backwards and forwards. You'll forgive me for thinking that you just can't be this dumb. Maybe I'll respond to your new semantics in the morning, but it's got to the point where I swear you're just rewording things to make it seem like you don't understand something slightly different (or not at all different) for a sense of satisfaction that it makes sense for you to be able to vote for me, rather than actually giving two figs about whether I'm scum or not ("I really think he's scum! Oh, but no one else is voting for him, so eh, I guess I'll just give up" is not good for town, as depressing as it may be to be in that position). The stance is beyond credibility, and this is without looking for other things to attach to this, like how I'm not sure where you plucked Yoshiken from to draw a lynch from and random crap like how you've distanced yourself as much as possible from responsibility regarding the LagGlen mislynch. Oh how we tricked you into it.

And no, I've done zero analysis on other people so far for day 2! Maybe my vote will massively change by tomorrow. It feels like it'd take a lot though, given the in-game source of why I haven't had much chance to look elsewhere. Talk me in ever increasing circles, why not.


So, yeah, first 'proper' post in the morning, hopefully. Maybe I'll finally be able to distinguish between the like five players who have merged in my mind. Two relatively random points before I drop off to sleep:

Noyn is completely beneath my concern at this point. Okay obvious.

I'll be clear about my paranoia regarding Kilga: I've been convinced for some time that part of a potential sensible scum strategy would be to buddy up to me a ton, as it doesn't take a deep observation to spot that I'm a lot harsher on my critics. I would not place a vote based or[, hopefully,] swayed by this, but having someone agree quite so much (especially in a game where my scum hunting has been rather limited so far) has set off some panic buttons. Again, not that Kilga has necessarily done anything wrong. I just need to be careful not to go off the deep end in either direction.

[Taishyr]

... uh, -what-. I have openly admitted I voted for Glen, I moved my vote back to him, I have taken responsibility for my action in that fracas and admitted to every step of that mess - unless I'm not allowed to try and explain myself at all? That must be it. I have explained where my reason to go to Yoshiken came from. This is... this is completely incendiary, and about the only thing that stays my hand is that I'm trying to decide if this would even be a scum move.

Sorry to piss you off, dude, but frankly, no. Even a tantrum won't make me flinch here, and frankly... yeah, no. Guess what? I can't ignore this behavior.

##UNVOTE: Roukanken
##VOTE: Xanth

Adding the pretty much brazen and sourceless attack to the list. I'm tired of this game at this point what with the attitude here, but I was tired of Meme Mafia, too. So if you really want to try and bury me in flame, Xanth, go for it.

[Cotigo]

Hey, Sassy-rai, I think you're a little too obsessed with your breakfast.  Roukanken's got 2 vote counts going, one for Taishyr's vote and one for mine.  Just pointing that out. (Ninja!  Not anymore.)

Having a hard time skim-understanding the Roukan case, possibly because Page 9 is a veritable deluge of words (not that the Insomniac has any right to complain about walls of text). Will need to look that one over when I get back.

The crux of my case on Rou is thus:  He kept hounding on my L-3 overreaction and that I didn't change my vote off of Ciato early on in spite of the fact that he had, at least regarding the issue of my vote, linked to the post that pretty cleanly answered his question while writing it off as contentless.  He had also linked to a post where I admitted that I overreacted (although this was not as clean-cut as the one about not moving my jokevote), also writing it off as contentless.  It strikes me that somebody trying to build a legitimate case would have read the posts that they linked to while analyzing the player.  Dismissing both posts as "contentless" while they answered Rou's questions, and continuing to harp on the point, strikes me as bad.

I felt this was enough to move my vote because, while I still don't like Rat, the majority of that (now that he's answered my questions about waffling on MC satisfactorily) boils down to whether or not I think Anti-EarlyLaL4Pressure is a legitimate enough argument against Laggleny, a gut feeling, and some OMGUS.  The case on Rou has at least something solid I can point to as being off-putting.

---

Finishing up my analysis of the Laggleny train, then moving on to the Alice choo-choo.

So, Kilgamayan/To-Ho Hi-Jack.  Perhaps the fact that during this re-read I noticed that he asks a lot of the same questions I did about other players when I sat down and did some player analysis ("Why is Glen a clueless noob while MC isn't, Alice?" is the prominent one... on a side note, this makes me look worse but there's really not much that can be done about that now.), and perhaps it's me placing too much stake in his role to clear him, but he's the only player I've looked at thus far that I'm pretty confident is Town-aligned.  He's been pretty observant, asks some pretty good questions, and I can't find an instance where he's seriously misrepresented someone's arguments.  This can always change, of course, but for right now he's not even in my consideration for voting.

---

Okay, Alice train time.

MC... continues to strike me as doing nothing but being a bad noob.  I have no idea why the hell she semiroleclaimed but that's not scummy, just... well, an overreaction. Snow claiming the action was kind of beneficial because it helps town know the role setup better, but that just didn't help.  Whatever, not going to spend too much time since Snowfire's more of an x-factor on this train as far as I'm concerned.  Maybe the second most town-seeming player, after Kilga.

---

Snowfire, now.... I was going to do an analysis, but I've realized that I'm bored and reading Mafia while bored of it doesn't really ever lead anywhere good.  Initial analysis is "Well, I agree with him as far as Day 1 posts go" but that doesn't say much about his alignment.  Less lazy analysis is to come later, perhaps after a break, perhaps tomorrow.  I intend to do a less hasty Alice re-read at that point too, but we'll see how that goes.

---

Ninja.  What the shit Xanth and Taishyr are now getting srs.  Will address later.

[Tohsaka Rin]

"Dear Zenthor,

You are quite right. I blame the cooks, personally. You just do not serve mackerel at breakfast.
It's faux-pas, you know? Like getting married on a battlefield.

Yours faithfully,

Sasarai, War Bishop of the Holy Kingdom of Harmonia."


Day 2 Votecount

MC (1): Roukanken
Roukanken (1): Taitoro, Zenthor
Carthrat (1): Metroid, Zenthor
Alice (1): Snowfire
Zenthor (2): Yoshiken, Carthrat
Taitoro (2): Kilgamayan, Xanth
Xanth (1): Taitoro

With an army of 11, 6 make a revolution.

I surmise there are 44 hours left before night time sets in.

[Kilgamayan]

Reading the Roukan case, I do agree with the point against him regarding repeatedly pushing Zenny on the overreaction thing despite Zenny having already explained it. On the other hand, I think Roukan's issues with Zenny hanging onto his Ciato vote for so long stem from repeated MotK play, where everyone is gung-ho to make sure they get a serious vote out as soon as they can. No one over there really takes a wait-and-see-until-I'm-pretty-sure approach to Day 1, so of course it's going to look weird to him. I'm chalking this one up to playstyle and environmental differences and don't believe it can be held against either of them. Other stuff I'm not sure of right now (hi Snow) due to still being active topics and I want to see how the back-and-forth plays out before I make a final judgment, as I haven't yet seen anything in the various attacks or Roukan's defense that has sold me one way of the other on the case.

Meanwhile, a couple of other random pings include...

- Yoshi: Not digging his Zenthor vote too much. As best I can tell, he cherrypicks a couple of Zenny posts for his +/- stuff (the first of which, at least, gets overblown with the "everything" emphasis given the entire post is dedicated to responding to one person) and then makes the broad sweeping "(hasn't) produced much of anything that I like" combined with the active lurking accusation without doing a whole lot to substantiate either statement. I don't think the posts he highlighted properly support a don't-like-anything statement. Rat provides a better example of how to make a case against Zenny, in my opinion, and I actually agreed with a fair bit of it, but Yoshi's case and vote also being there is staying my hand.

- Xanth (oh God): The guy kinda-sorta brought it up himself, but something that's been needling at me for most of the game but only really become worth vocalizing is how much he has blended into the background. The problem with this is that it's simply unlike him rather than really a tell about his alignment - Khan and Jack were just as active and memorable as Bee Toe and ADog. The reason I bring this up now is this line:

random crap like how you've distanced yourself as much as possible from responsibility regarding the LagGlen mislynch

I can...maybe see where this is coming from, but I want you to produce a more specific explanation for me to make sure I'm seeing the same thing you're seeing, and even after that it still seems a bit of a stretch to say after the guy straight-up admitted his Glen vote was bad and that he feels bad. This just doesn't sit very well with me, as much as I side with you on most other things. Can't really go any further with this until you have the free time, though.

- Alice: A good chunk of this is admittedly based on my Tai vote, and a little bit more is (brace for impact) due to the Ciato NK. Since I'm sure people will want a better reason that they can all look at, though, I want to know where he is. I don't really care if lurking is his meta, I'd expect any townie that narrowly avoided getting the Day 1 axe to have shown up by now, especially since some people are still voicing displeasure with him. Admittedly not a terribly strong feeling, though, and I realize how much of this is founded on stuff I probably shouldn't found it on, but it's how I honestly feel about him right now.

[Kilgamayan]

Although, in thinking about it, I'm having a hard time thinking of reasons why scum that narrowly escaped the Day 1 axe would be less likely to come out swinging on Day 2 than town. Maybe hoping that the pressure simply vanishes? Eh, don't know how likely that is, especially not in a game where LAL was such a large focus.

So yeah, I guess that doesn't really count as a point against Alice.