DL Mafia GAME OVER Scum Win

[Alice Margatroid]

No new game analysis from me, but I figured I'd get this out there nonetheless since I'm about 98% sure I won't live to see Day 3 regardless of how right all of the above blathering is and it may help put a role puzzle together later. Maybe.

I appear to have been acted upon on Night 0. I am actually unsure about this, as my role PM was rather ambiguous as to whether or not I could do anything other than talk at night, and the notice I recieved was likewise ambiguous as to whether or not it was an inherent effect. Whether it came from myself or an outside source, the effect was positive, and given what it was I feel relatively confident it was town in origin (WARNING: Not a guarantee), but I won't say more than that. (This assumes, of course, that the effects of the boosts are tied to the boosts themselves and not inherent to the player, which may not actually be true.)

It is...outside-chance-possible it is a very kooky side effect of Alice's role, though I rather doubt it. MC might be able to shed some light on that subject, if she deems it prudent.

Off to bed. If I don't wake up, good luck to town. Personal preferred lynch order is Rat > Tai > Rou > ??Snow??. Flop Tai and Rat around if Tai tries to play the sympathy card set up by the third "paragraph" in this post, as Xanth's flip is a minor-at-best part of my case against him.

[Excal]

When everyone returned the next day, they found one of their number had arrived early.  However, he didn't respond when anyone said hello.  A quick inspection showed the cause, as there was a knife sticking out of his ribs.  A fitting end for Balk Fenzol.  However, despite finding some traces of Mosfungus Poison on his fingertips, they could find no sign of his being an impostor.

Yoshiken (Balk Fenzol - Town Poisoner) has been assassinated.

As the group was busy absorbing their losses, they heard their tormentors speak up behind them.

"Such a poor lost group, at least it'll all be over soon," Kefka almost sang.

"So true," Luca sneered.  "I think this is the last day for these little piggies.  Why, just one vote wrong, and it'll all be over."

"Well..." Kefka mused, "Maybe not all over.  There is still a chance, but not much of one.  I know I'd never be crazy enough to bet on it."

"Heh, then let's see if this group of screwups can find the wolves in their midst."


MOD NOTE:

Yes, it is LYLO.  As things currently stand, if there is a Town on Town vote then there is an almost negligable chance that Town can still win.  That said, there will still be a three day time limit.

Unfortunately, MC's move is happening right now, so Bard will be coming back in as the role was originally his.

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

[Bardiche]

Right then, gimme a whole to properly re-read everything.

On a side note: Hi guys! I know about as much as you guys do and I'm relatively caught up on the thread, just gotta re-read with the eye on who to accuse for the day!

[Taishyr]

......


wait, it's LYLO? 3 scum remain? ... and one's already... ... oh for pete's sake. we had four scum from the get go and a third party? need to go back and really relook at that logic now, but... this plus yoshiken's death... shit, almost everyone's back on the table now. no, apparently it's two scum and . reading what Excal's posted, if town lynches town there's still a chance at town surviving, which can't happen if it's 6/3 objectively. so... yeah.

I'll be honest in saying I'm flat-out tired, too, but for the sake of night effects: My role has been confused/diverted again; I strongly believe that it's been diverted to scum. I cannot, however, confirm this; it's mainly due to "twice in a row + Rou (one of my top suspects) knows what it does" that I'm incredibly suspicious. Paranoid, perhaps, but it's one of my strongest leads (especially since I can't seem to scumhunt worth shit right now). Something else also happened overnight, but I don't feel as inclined to share that notice for right now. I'll do so if it becomes relevant. I'm looking at Rou highly, will relook Rat. The intended target for my night ability was Zenthor, but it was highly implied it did not get there. Zenthor, confirm/deny receiving tasty?

About all I have to say to Kilga is that no one was 'ffing commenting on Alice during day 2 anyway until the end. It wasn't until I reread during day 2 that I caught the hypocrisy between him calling SnowFire out on a nitpick/misread and calling Glen out on doing the same to him, which is what fueled most the case aside from his extreme silence - and thus the extreme flip between thinking he was okay, if quiet, and thinking he was lurking scum. Then again, hypocrisy seems to have been Town here as well. buh goo.

Bard: Hio.

[Carthrat]

Probably only two scum actually. If Yoshi's poisoner role is basically a delayed NK, then the reason for the whole 'lylo, but not!' thing may be that he targeted a townie last night, which means three townies could be dead by tomorrow morning, ergo scum win with just two. Yeah anything is possible but it seems likeliest to me.

I find it doubtful that Kilga and Zenthor are scum offhand, and point mainly to their regular contributions over the course of day two, which struck me as both genuinely investigative and huntery (zenthor in particular, although mainly because I had my eye on him throughout the day owing to my case, which at this stage I don't think I'm going to be pursuing.) If Kilga's scum, then he put a fuckton of effort into posting at night, whereas I imagine most scum would be somewhat, uh, lazier.

Anyhow that leaves metroid, rou, and snow who I want to investigate. Which will not happen tonight.

[Kilgamayan]

I can now confirm that I was acted upon Night 0. Shame, I was hoping that effect was inherent, but so it goes. Bard, did you get a nifty little effect on Night 1 that seemed town in origin based on what it was? I don't recall MC claiming anything of the sort, just that she acted on SnowFire, but given what it was she may not have been inclined to mention it.

Rat's speculation was mine as well upon seeing that flip, though Excal's wording regarding a Townie voting for a Townie seems to suggest a scum rush is still possible.

Tai, you'll understand if I'm less than enthusiastic about putting something else onto your "I missed it the first time" list. Don't forget what you said about carelessness.

Rat, where is Tai on your list of people? What do you think of him offhand?

I have something else on my mind but I want Roukan to post first.

[Cotigo]

Work work quick response etc

I received nothing last night, Tai. 

[Taishyr]

right.

Kilga, fair, but that's all I can really say. You seem honestly determined to find fault with me, and as I said, I can't blame you with how shitty my game's been thus far.

I'm at a friend's, will not be really paying attention to this game for the next 24-36 hours.

[Taishyr]

And I'd like to know where the hell I am on Rat's list, too, but.

[Bardiche]

I can now confirm that I was acted upon Night 0. Shame, I was hoping that effect was inherent, but so it goes. Bard, did you get a nifty little effect on Night 1 that seemed town in origin based on what it was? I don't recall MC claiming anything of the sort, just that she acted on SnowFire, but given what it was she may not have been inclined to mention it.

Remind me to get back to you on that. Excal only told me last night's action, not all nights' actions and happenings.

oh PS: please don't vote until you're sure the guy you've got is scum, Excal said Town on Town vote = negligible chance of winning so uhhhhhh 3 scum or doublevoter? No, I don't care if that's inciting paranoia, better to err on the right side of caution, right.

[Bardiche]

Update: Received nothing at all the entire game.

[Kilgamayan]

Okay, I think it's safe to assume it wasn't a side effect of Alice's power (unless Bard is lying scum but I don't know why he'd lie about this), for however unlikely it was in the first place.

[SnowFire]

Right.  Turbo post on lunch break, need to get back to work, etc.

We doing a mass roleclaim or not?  I'll hold back for now but was kind of expecting mass claim madness since it's apparently LYLO.

"Your honour, this pig is clearly insane!" Luca stated, with his brand new blue suit (of armour) and a new, different, spikey hair cut.  "Anyone can see the bunny ears, clearly demonstrating that she can only be a bunny pig!"

LOLOLOLOLOL.  Phoenix Blight?  Oh dear.  Nice one, Excal.

Also we are up against a truly terrifying foe indeed if they can summon the likes of MIKE MEEKINS to be on their side.

LYLO: Whaaaaaaaaaaat?  Shouldn't we have two more lynches to play with?  I've got a few ideas in my head as to why this could possibly be but hmm.  Getting bad memories of Villain Mafia here where scum had a 3P survivor Rat on their side who functionally was scum, so if something similar is at work here there might be "2.5" scum.  I am almost 100% certain that there are still only 2 scum, though, because PLYLO should probably have been declared yesterday if there were 4 scum total, I think?  What with what'd have happened if there'd been 3 town flips.  And 4/13 scum = u mad?, anyway.

Carth's explanation is plausible but meh.  If that is what happened then a town mislynch of the poisoned person or a scum NK of the poisoned person means we make it to Day 4, and Excal said "negligible" chance of a town win which sounds rather more apocalyptic.  Not that I'm sure of any better answer, mind.  I'd be happier with the 3P + 2 scum answer if we didn't already have a 3P flip.

Alice case: Whaaaaaaaaaat Alice was town?!  ...damnit.  Especially after MC caught that contradiction + the cop claim, I was fully expecting a scumAlice flip like Kilga.  Well.  Crap.

Roukanken case: I'm still pretty pumped to lynch Roukanken.  His case on MC was nitpicky and old, though I guess he did back off it.  His D2 attack on Zenny is seemingly based on OMGUS and emotion?  That or he dredged up his very bad D1 case against Zenny.  Roukanken did say he was stressed in that post but meh, if you ARE town, then please don't flail out like this.  He has also attacked me for strange nitpicks like Alice did, still not happy about that for obvious reasons (though Alice's flip makes me somewhat more gunshy of this charge).  Kilga has a point that I'm not sure what scumRoukan was trying to accomplish by hitting Zenny but I'm not really inclined to write off bad play because it's not optimal bad play or something.

Taishyr case: I've never been able to quite get a handle on Taishyr, but Noyn's flip does make him look bad to me at least.  He's on the record as having powered-up Quiet Rainkanken N0 and Noyn N1 (maybe?  Tai said he was confused then, though)...  and Rou just happens to be my number 1 suspect.  Then there was the epic Xanth / Tai clash which...  blargh.  That kind of bullheaded rush on one towny IS kind of odd for scum to pull, but hardly unheard of, and more generally I think Kilga has a point that Tai has helped make cases about minituia and pixelbitching over ultimately minor points. 

The claim of being bus driven is interesting, will wait for more people to chime in here to see if we can solve this role puzzle.  Thing is I'm willing to believe that Taishyr has just plain been lying about that, though, and that the reason there was no N2 power-up was because Tai either quietly powered up his scumbuddy with no claim, or because Tai went on the kill due to Noyn's death.

I will ask this, Tai: did you get the same kind of message from Excal last night as on N1?  IIRC you said you were just "confused" N1 and unsure what that implied, but now you seem more certain you were diverted.  Basically I just want to confirm that these were the "same" effects.

Rat case: Out of time to give this the consideration it deserves.  Just posting to mostly note that I'd slide Rat as a lesser case than Tai at the moment, if anything.  Kilga's attack on Rat for sliding onto the Alice train...  well, goes for Tai to an extent too, but since I was ringleading that train, I can't exactly fault genuine townies for being convinced of Alice's scumminess, LaL is a good idea, etc.

Everyone else: Well, bravo to Kilga / Zenny / MC if you're scum, I've got a towny read on all of you.

Conclusion: {Taishyr, Roukanken} is definitely my bet for the scumteam at the moment.  Rat is third place.  Everyone else is a distant 4th.

[Kilgamayan]

Look at me, I can post from work too!

Just as a precautionary measure, I would like to request that no further LYLO speculation happen until Roukan has posted. May turn out to be something, may turn out to be nothing, we'll see, but since he's high on my list I don't want too many people speculating things because I don't want to hand him any...outs, we'll say.

[Roukanken]

Apologies that this post isn't 5 miles long with detailed, thorough analysis of every single post ever made. I'll say that I've been having a bleh time IRL as well as seeing yesterday's shitfest and leave it at that.

Starting off with the roleclaim since it's Lylo and there's a case on me. Seifer, SeeD's resident asshole. Normally vanilla, but when I get powered up I can scare away people who try to NK me by slaying them with the greatest insult of all time. Yes, it's Chicken-Wuss. (In short, when I get powered up I'm a BP the next night.)

Anyway. A long, long, N2 wait was enough for me to look over my cases and decide that yes, I was tunneling as usual. My case on Zenny was pretty much all HURR DURR DAY 1, and MC was making newb mistakes. Not completely without merit, but definitely not worth following as avidly as I was. So that leaves Snow, Tai, Kilga and Rat.

Kilga, I see no reason to suspect at all. Solid play all game, nothing really standing out against him anywhere. Rat's line of reasoning, I'm also willing to buy - nothing that he's said I particular object to. Tai...I can't believe he would be able to pull such an insane bluff N0 unless he had MASSIVE amounts of impossible role information, so I'm willing to buy into him.

That leaves Snow, and ho-hoh boy this one is fun.
Let's just take his most recent post for now, half because it's an excellent example and half because I've sort of lost the drive to go all the way with this. Some useless padding in terms of responding to the flavour, two paragraphs of Lylo theory which don't do anything, a blatant 'OH WOW ALICE WAS TOWN' that could easily be scum boasting. I've already said plenty about him earlier, so I'm hoping that this doesn't cause any undue heart attacks in saying that I think Snow's play so far sucks. His vote on Laggy contained an 'oh wait, maybe we SHOULD lynch Alice sometime' get-out-of-jail-free card which is doubly important now that Alice has flipped Town, and besides that there's a lot of words words words in his posts.

Only problem is that Snow obviously isn't the only scum. MC and Makkotah then would still be my suspects for his buddy (buddies?), given that I can eliminate Tai and Kilga/Rat have given me nothing to worry about. Assuming otherwise would probably be buying into the ACCUSE TOUHOU HE'S A GOOD TOWNIE logic which I still don't get. That's a bridge to cross when we come to it, though, and for now I'm more than willing to ##FoS: Snowfire.

[SnowFire]

Oooh let's trade insults then.  If you think my play sucks, then your play...  Actually on second thought let's not having already had one really stupid spat between Xanth and Taishyr.  I will however respond to the substance.

Some useless padding in terms of responding to the flavour, two paragraphs of Lylo theory which don't do anything ...(snip) ....  His vote on Laggy contained an 'oh wait, maybe we SHOULD lynch Alice sometime' get-out-of-jail-free card which is doubly important now that Alice has flipped Town, and besides that there's a lot of words words words in his posts.

Still dredging up old cases I see.  I actually went to notable effort to keep my posts trimmer and to the point on Day 2.  Also absolutely anyone on these boards can tell you I'm a fan of flavor and will respond and make comments on it no matter what so um.  Right.  As for my Laggy vote, whaaaat?  Are you saying that I should have tunneled Laggy and said nothing about other cases and had it be a big surprise when I switched to Alice?  Give me a break.  (Yes, I was obviously wrong about Alice, which pisses me off, but I stand by that case being defensible and plausible.)

More seriously, since it seems Rou claimed, I repeat my previous question do we want to do a mass roleclaim?  I'm not actually entirely sure if this is wise, that kind of backfired for town in Meme Mafia and there could theoretically be 3 more game days of play, but it is LYLO.  I guess I'll wait for Kilga's LYLO thoughts first.

Also, Excal, only 3 days of deadline for LYLO?  Would it be possible to consider extending that if need be, or is that a hard deadline?  (Depends on how the day will go, but I don't want to be forced into something hasty come deadline if we're not getting anywhere.)

[Kilgamayan]

Just got home, haven't had time to play more than the logic game for the moment, though I raise an eyebrow at Roukan's claim that he has no issues with Rat.

1) I endorse a mass roleclaim given the circumstances. However, I want Zenny to claim last. Ideally I also want Rat and Tai to go first in some order (with Snow thrown in if people want) but if I get shouted down on that, so be it. Everyone's already seen what I do, and given the revelation that what happened to me on Night 0 was due to an outside force I'm going to go ahead and assume it's all I can do.

2) Where's the slowkill? We've all posted and no one has claimed it (and given I'm bringing this up now I'd be happy to vote anyone that goes "oh whoops it was me sorry" unless they had a DAMN good reason for delaying the reveal). I guess it's possible that whoever got hit with it wouldn't know, since that's more or less the nature of Poison, but the DL precedent for slowkills is that the target knows, so uh. There's also the matter of whether or not it's on a Townie, because a Town on Town vote wouldn't mathematically spell doom if the Townie that got lynched was the slowkilled one (unless there are multiple kills available to non-townies). I might have been able to see three scum remaining with the kill sitting on one of them but I don't know why they wouldn't have just claimed being the target since it would have almost guaranteed them a pass for the day.

3) Roukan's claim is...throwing me for a loop, actually. The special effect I received Night 0 was bulletproof, and it didn't come into effect until Night 1. The difference is that I didn't know about this until it happened, while he apparently did. This raises all sorts of questions, like why two Townies would have the same PowerUp effect but one also gets Insomnia while the other gets nothing else, or why he was told he'd get BP while I didn't find out until it happened, or whether or not he's scum that guessed what happened to me based on how I danced around the issue. Really don't know what to make of this.

Cut by Snow: Mass Roleclaim messed up Meme Mafia because you guys did it when you didn't need to. LYLO is an all-cards-on-the-table situation, so yes, I say go ahead with it.

[Kilgamayan]

Though now that I think about it I can see three scum remaining with one being slowkilled shutting up about it given the risk of getting a buddy lynched instead because of the claim (whereas the slowkilled scum getting lynched would be less than ideal but ultimately not the worst thing that could happen to them).

[Cotigo]

It's also possible that somebody used a roleblocker to stop the poison, or Yoshi didn't have access to his kill because of de/leveling silliness, or any number of things.  Unless somebody claims to be hit with the slowkill, though, I don't think reasoning this out is too useful.

I've only skimmed so far so I won't go too into detail, but Rou still looks worst to me still, and his Day 3 post does little to affect my opinion.  Rat looked significantly better to me after that re-read Tai made me do, and the Alice flip makes Tai look significantly worse.  I'm not sure of the usefulness of a mass roleclaim right now (scum were given covers, and after only 3 night phases sniffing out the fakes might be impossible.), but onn the other hand, given that it is LYLO it's not as... harmful, I suppose, as it would be at another time.

Question:  Kilga, why do you want me to claim last?

Mm.  More thorough scumhunting to come later when I've done some more reading.

[Kilgamayan]

To keep scum on their toes claimwise. Role madness or not, I don't want to gift them a claim of whatever they want, and I feel having you go last maximizes our chances of doing just that.

[Cotigo]

It's a fair enough point, but I'm a little clueless as to how me going last would maximize those chances.  That might just be me being 7 beers in though.

Just a heads up, analysis probably won't be coming tonight.  Blah blah blah using alcohol to deal with problems aside, it is my friend's 21st birthday tonight so yeah.  If I'm up early enough tomorrow I'll try and get some thoughts out before work, and if not, I'll certainly get them out there on my lunch break/immediately after work (since more than 1 day is far, far too long to get that done when we're in hard deadline LYLO), but they're almost certainly not coming out in any coherent form tonight.  Sorry town.

[Cotigo]

Actually, thinking on it, don't answer me about why that would maximize those chances, at least not until the mass roleclaim is over with.  That would be stupid. 

[Kilgamayan]

It's nothing I haven't already said in the thread; I think you're the towniest of the remaining players.

[Carthrat]

Didn't mention Tai for no particularly good reason save the way I think and write stuff. I am somewhat leery of him though, as I said before I didn't like the way the Xanth/Tai discussion developed; granted I felt Xanth was more deserving of a lynch, not sure how Tai concluded Xanth was townie (and managed to wait until after the guy imploded to say so, when really it was kinda late.)

Rolestuffs: I'm a doctor, prot'd Rou N1 and Snow N2, rationale on the first being 'I think he's kinda townie-looking' and the second being 'he got powered up, so if he's town he's a high-probability target for scum'. Somehow I got pre-emptively roleblocked last night and can't take any actions tonight, so my ability to protect anyone is nil. Don't see much harm in claiming this part presently. Didn't bother proting anyone n0, if anyone cares. Didn't see the point and kinda wanted to avoid any reactive roles. I'm not really seeing much helpful out of claims so far, and with the weirdness of the setup just about anything is believable, so.

I must admit I'm somewhat surprised, it's been weird to see people thinking I look good this game and it's made me a bit nervous, since I don't think I've done so well. I haven't really looked through the thread yet, but I've thought about things to myself and I'm really considering Snow at the moment on account of his powerup claim followed by survival (ohnoezNKspec). It actually seems kinda odd; why would did you actually go out and claim that? What purpose could it serve but to draw a target on your own head?

[SnowFire]

Was hoping to wait for Tai to fullclaim, but we've only got 72 hours, and I'm next on Kilga's suspicion-o-meter anyway, so here goes.  (Random note: The idea of reverse-claiming in order of perceived towniness is pretty cool, now that I think about it.  We should really do that by default in all games.)

It actually seems kinda odd; why would did you actually go out and claim that? What purpose could it serve but to draw a target on your own head?

Rat: I would have been thrilled had I been the NK target N2, or so I thought on early Day 2. 

* First, Xanth already claimed a power-up unsolicited on early Day 2.  Seemed a reasonably towny idea, mark out who got powered up when so that scum can't backtrack later and claim "oh yeah I got powered up and found out who the scumteam was."  If I'd drawn cop powers off the power-up I probably would have shut up, but instead...
* ... Roleclaim: Laguna Loire, adventurer, journalist, film star, president, the usual.  Sometimes spirits of my son and his friends power me up from the future and give me amazing abilities, like awesome battle music and machine guns everywhere.  I'm vanilla normally but when Metroid powered me up, I got a Limit and became a Vigilante for Night 2.  Whoever I shot would *flip* so there would be no need to live to Day 3 and declare my results.  To some extent I was hoping I'd draw the NK and distract scum from any other investigative roles, so that's why I didn't really feel bad about claiming the power-up.  I was somewhat worried that this would "out" MC or Zenny as likely sources of the power-up (which unfortunately happened) but it seemed they didn't draw the NK anyway.

The perceptive will note that there is only one body on the floor today.  Yes, I declined to use my vig power last night.  I would have shot Roukanken had I shot anybody, but here was my logic: I figured that town had the choice between two lynches (7 players D3 -> 5 players D4) vs. my shot + a LYLO lynch (6 players D3).  I wanted to give town more night actions to work with and hope something shook loose, and also perhaps let Roukanken rolelcaim if I was wrong about him.  I also thought that a non-LYLO lynch (today) might force scum into some untenable roleclaims which could be outed on Day 4, which wouldn't be the case with vig + LYLO lynch Day 3.  Anyway, CRAP, NOT AS PLANNED.  If I'd known today would be LYLO I'd definitely have shot Roukanken and then we'd probably still have a lynch to work with, assuming 2 scum....  although maybe not, if it's "2 scum + ally" or something.  So yeah, I hope my reasons are clear, but I guess this was the wrong decision?  It really depends on what the hell is going on here with the roles and why exactly today is LYLO.  (Also from a flavor perspective I'd definitely be happy with shooting up Seifer.)

Anyway, this is where I slightly whine about Xanth getting himself modkilled which moved LYLO closer which meant I felt I couldn't safely shoot.  Oh, well.

I was not powered up last night, so there will be no vigging tonight for me.

I have some more potential scumteam / role speculation thoughts but will hold off 'till fullclaim has occurred before sharing them.  I would ask that people get to said sharing quickly, though; note that we are still on a deadline.