DL Mafia GAME OVER Scum Win

[Excal]

The man speaks truth!

36.4 hours remain in LYLO

[Taishyr]

... LYLO deadline. Right. Well, bear with me a minute, I have a few questions for Rou first before I do the entirety of my claim.

Okay, first: Roukanken, what tasty did I give you N0? Just to make sure I am the person that gave you that tasty.

Secondly, why would it have been a massive scum gambit for me to give you what I gave you N0 (presuming that tasty is the same as I gave you, just presume it is for now, I want to hear the logic).

Doing a quick dig to check for something. Posting again soonish, I hope, will provide full roleclaim as soon as I get the confirmation from Roukanken.

[Taishyr]

Actually, after mulling this out, I think I can get my one other question out of the way without any major issues or conflicting with my Rou questions.

Taishyr case: I've never been able to quite get a handle on Taishyr, but Noyn's flip does make him look bad to me at least.  He's on the record as having powered-up Quiet Rainkanken N0 and Noyn N1 (maybe?  Tai said he was confused then, though)...  and Rou just happens to be my number 1 suspect.  Then there was the epic Xanth / Tai clash which...  blargh.  That kind of bullheaded rush on one towny IS kind of odd for scum to pull, but hardly unheard of, and more generally I think Kilga has a point that Tai has helped make cases about minituia and pixelbitching over ultimately minor points. 

This is all good logic and I can't really blame you for any of it, in theory! ...but.

SnowFire, please clearly state -how- you have learned what my power does. For reference, here's my post of my partial roleclaim.

And while I'm at it, since I think the problem here is fairly self evident: Massive FoS: SnowFire. Unless you have a damn good explanation of this one... well, knowing what my ability does before me and before Rou's actually said anything about N0 effects is... welp!

[Roukanken]

Besides the point that Tai just made about Snow knowing things before he's meant to know them, I'll comment that two characters from the same game is sort of unheard of. Seifer/Laguna when we've had a pretty varied group of characters up until now? :/

Tai: I received a strawberry Night 0.

And it's a gambit because the effect I received from it was positive and scum!Tai wouldn't want to give out bonuses to random Townies in case he powered up a dangerous role.

I want to say more but SWEET JESUS delicious side effects from these pills I can't hear myself type over this headache. >_<

[Kilgamayan]

I'm watching this unfold and not liking where it's going. Will wait for Snow to answer, though I feel I could answer for him and that makes me a tiny bit more leery for both Tai and Roukan for pushing this.

[Kilgamayan]

*tiny bit more leery of

[Taishyr]

Kilga: ... okay so I'm magically supposed to know how he knows what my ability is, despite the fact that he does not seem to have gotten any of my strawberries? (As they are strawberries, yes)

And for the record, I disagree overly much that it's a gambit - since my giving of power is obvious, I could be just trying to curry favor with the move if I were scum. I'm not, but whatever.

For the record, "because it was explained that they weren't negative" doesn't help at all - we have way too many useless roles at base power (AMNESIAC COP, TOWN GODLIKE VANILLA) that a presumption that they're positive - and specifically, -that they boost power level- seems incredibly off.

And since this leads into a roleclaim, I'm Kogasa, town dog (S3), which makes me leery also on the FF8 speculation that both can't be true (it's a possiblity but I don't know for sure). I ran around giving strawberries from Connie's neck pouch to people. The other event that happened tonight was that I was powered up tonight; instead of one strawberry I give two, and I was explicitly told today that this would be a double power booster.

Which also means that whatever keeps targeting me at night isn't a power down effect, or else I'd think the two cancel out? Whatever, I don't know what's going on in this game anymore, I didn't sign up for role madness.

[Taishyr]

And yeah, I got told today how my ability worked explicitly, the one day where it'd both be worthless (woo LYLO power booster~) and frustrating (because knowing how my ability worked earlier would have enabled a bit more enlightened actions. I wouldn't have tried to cure Noyn's votelessness, for one, if I knew I was just a 'ffing powerbooster. but whatever.)

[Bardiche]

Lol powerup shenanigans.

Right, reread the thread and am up to date on all the shenanigans.

I find myself wanting to lynch Rat. (lol bard you're so funny)
(yes that is a joke I demand to be allowed to make one joke this game!)

---
As far as srs bsns content goes I'm not really happy with Zenthor and will compile a case on him. Just popping in to mention I'm still there, hi.

[SnowFire]

....

Taishyr.

Taishyr.

You asked Roukanken if he got a goodie on night 0 in thread on Day 2.  After Xanth / Myself / MC had already made power-up claims public and it seemed like everyone was doing so.  Furthermore the opening post of the game specifically mentions the "power up / power down" mechanic.  I assumed you were being coy about "not knowing" if you had a power-up ability when I read that post on Day 2 as an attempt to keep scum in the dark, if you must ask, since it being a power-up ability seems, well, obvious.  If you must ask for game theory, then most abilities are generally silent (doctor, tracker, etc.); the only abilities that get a notification are NKs and...

There are several powers in play which can raise or lower the power level of other people.  These changes rarely last more than one night.  You will be told if you are so effected, and it will take effect on the next night.

So if Roukanken was informed he got something good.  Um.  I wouldn't even call it a guess, more like putting 2 and 2 together unless Excal was being crazy with the meta.  Also, did you really not know what your ability did?  I find that rather hard to believe you didn't think you might have the mechanic described in the opening post of the game.

If you want to play semantics, I will amend my comment.  "Taishyr is on record as having powered-up Quiet Rainkanken N0 and Noyn N1 (maybe?  Tai said he was confused then, though) with his ability, but said ability, while apparently helping people, could theoretically not be a 'power-up' in the sense Excal described in the first post, but rather some unrelated type of power-up that people are informed about for some reason; I however believe that Taishyr's treat is in fact an Excal-power-up like I received and not an unrelated-power-up."

Of course, now that Roukanken has claimed he becomes BP, it seems this rather obvious assumption is almost certainly correct if both Tai & Rou are telling the truth - I didn't know I would become a Vig until I got powered-up, Roukanken knows he becomes BP, therefore Roukanken was powered up at some point in the game.  (Unless Excal told him before what his role did upon power-up which I hugely doubt since Excal said every role has hidden information.)

However, I will grant one thing.  I'm not 100% sure you have a power-up ability, no.  If the scumteam was Roukanken / Noyn / Taishyr then you have targeted Scum / Scum / ????  so this could all be a pack of lies.  I don't think that, though.  I bet you really are a scum power-upper, and have just been powering up your friends.  Last night it was done quietly, or else you were stuck on the kill since Noyn is dead.

I am now 98% convinced that we have a Taishyr / Roukanken scumteam afoot.

Also Roukanken.  Since you want to play the FF8 meta card.  Taishyr just claimed a Suiko 3 character when Ciato was a Suiko 3 character.  Just sayin'.

And actually, Taishyr has done even better than that.

I'm Kogasa, town dog (S3)

BEEEP!  Kogasa is not a character in Suikoden 3 unless both Google and my memory have totally failed me.  Kogasa is a Touhou character.  Did you seriously just scumclaim?  Or did you misspell Koroku?

I am seriously tempted to vote Tai right now but will hold off.

[Taishyr]

...yeah, Koroku. Touhou on the brain, as incredibly stupid as that makes me fucking well look. What the fuck ever, my play's been shitty, might as well top it off by typing out a completely wrong name, holy fucking shit. -_- Single worst game I've ever played, I think, this is?

Regarding your logic... no, I did not know what my ability did, why else would I say that? I only learned explicitly what I could bloody well do today. And I asked Noyn -about his votelessness- first. I only asked Rou about the fruit when I was under pressure, mainly because damnit, I really don't want to see town lynch me but at this point with my abysmal play it's inevitable. Holy christ I can't believe I did that still.

I don't really have anything else to say, other than I really don't believe how you jumped to me being a power booster but apparently it was obvious to everyone but me or something? Shit. I don't care. Koroku, thanks for catching that, yeah have fun lynching me if you really want, gg scum since this is LYLO and you're lynching town dog but I don't expect you to believe me at this point, honestly, due to simply how badly I've cold cocked this. I'm pretty much done, it's obvious I should have just acted like Alice the entire fucking game for how much everything I've tried to say has been turned against me. Whatever.

[Taishyr]

and yeah, I don't quite care enough about Suikodogs to remember their fucking names

I remembered Ko and just went from there

of course, my role implies I'm Dune anyway (Hi, I'm a guy who has a girl's belongings and goes around giving out strawberries that aren't any use~~~~~ wait they're useful lol too late to find that out) so whatever

[SnowFire]

Siiiiiiiiiiiiiigh. 

Don't really know how to respond to that.

I do want to be clear that Taishyr's botched nameclaim isn't the main reason I'm suspicious of him.  Sloppiness is a bad sign and scum presumably have 2 names to keep track of so I do hold it as a point against him, but mistakes happen; everyone has made some dumb mistakes this game, I'm not in favor of a lynch solely on that.  It's more the attempted case on me which felt like an artificial "gotcha!" rush to get some townie to panic and make an early vote that backfired.

That said, if Tai does follow through on ragequitting, I don't think we have much choice but to lynch him, Appeal to Emotion is bad, especially as a reason to shut up and not say anything more.

[Cotigo]

Mafiaclusterfuck.

I'm going to try to keep this brief, because I lost a lot of time to this game Day 2 and I don't want to loose too much more to it.  I'm still pretty convinced Roukanken's scum.  Yadda yadda my day 2 case still applies, but his Day 3 posts haven't been too great either (although frankly at this juncture I totally feel the whole going "meh" at this game).  His brand new case against Snow reads like little more than an OMGUS, and the second post about 2 characters from the same game being unprecedented is... true or not, not useful.
So, yeah.  Pretty sure Rou's scum.  

Now, who's his buddy/ies?  MC's read pretty townie and, though Alice flipped Town, her catch on Alice earns her some massive townie cred in my book.  Kilga's contributions have been really good (though something still just strikes me as off about asking for a full roleclaim, but MEH MOAR PLAYSTYLE BICKERING), and frankly if Kilga flips scum, at this junction I'll just say well done and leave it at that.

I'm willing to take a bet and say Carth isn't scum.  Most of his arguments have been original and now that that whole OMGUS moment has passed, the only thing I can really say against the guy is that his post count's low.  But... quality over quantity is something I'm appreciative of.  Even if he is Rou's scummate, I am certainly not willing to lynch him over Rou today.

So, we have {Rou, Snow} and {Rou, Taishyr}.  I haven't done thorough re-reads of either, that will come later tonight (given how close to deadline we are now, this is a promise I will keep. >_>)

Tai's list of people he's given tasties to (myself aside, but we can't really trust that claim since I was notified of exactly nothing last night) links him pretty badly to scum, and the way he's flailed about at the end here has colored my opinion of him in exactly the same way Rou's flailing has.  The whole spat with Xanth could easily have been Tai pulling an Otter.  

My problem with the {Rou, Tai} scumpair is that it seems... too obvious.  It's LYLO, sure, but why would scum not try harder to distance themselves from their scummates?  Which is precisely what Snow and Rou seem to be doing in their little spat on the previous page.  Additionally, Rou pointing out that Tai targetting him would be a massive scum gambit feels to me like he's trying to make the connection between Tai and Rou stronger, so even if we lynch scumRou, scum could still win by lynching the guy with the most obvious connection to him.  

That said, that's really the only thing making me hesitate to declare Tai as the second scum.  

This may change based on my Tai/Snow re-reads, but currently I'm going to say Rou>>>Tai>Snowfire>>>Rat>>>>>>irrelevant.

Snow ninja!

Well, actually, Snow pushing the Tai lynch strikes me as off, too.  "If he's raegquitting we must lynch!" Really?  Except that if he's raegquitting scum it benefits town, and if he's raegquitting town then lynching him means we lose.

---

Oh, almost forgot.  So has everyone roleclaimed?  Looks like it, may have missed someone (I don't think Bard's fullclaimed yet but we already know MC powered up Snow N1).  I will roleclaim soon, but I want to check with the mod about something first. 

So much for keeping this brief.

[Excal]

I would like to make a generic reminder that this is just a game.  There is no cost to losing, and anyone bragging too much in the winning (or the I told you soing) will get a hearty post game smack.

[Cotigo]

Tai: Koroko, PowerUPPPP
Rou: Seifer, Vanilla / Bulletproof
Rat:  Doctor, protected Rou and Snow
Snow: Laguna Vigilante, claims to have targetted nobody
MCBardpants: Some sort of powerup thing, ?
Kilga: Insomniac, ?

Okay.  So, Bard and Kilga haven't fullclaimed yet and I'll hold off until they do so per Kilga's request (though both seem really townie to me).  

Some thoughts...

Nobody has claimed to have received Tai's strawberry today, so regardless of Tai's alignment it's pretty certain that scum is powered up tonight.  

Nobody has claimed to have been powered down, either, and I certainly was D2 so I know the role exists.  I'm going to take a guess and say that this means this was Noyn's power.  I really, really, really hope this was Noyn's power, anyway.  

There's nobody who has claimed to be a bus driver or roleblocker, so if those roles do exist they're scum aligned.  Since Yoshi got axed to the face last night, this means that both Tai's claim of being bussed and Rat's claim of being preemptively roleblocked cannot be true barring some bastard moding, which I'll grant is entirely possible.  

Xanth claimed to be a 1 shot doc, which makes Rat's claim look a little worse, and MC being a power upper who knew about it makes Tai's claim of being a power upper who didn't know about it also look worse.  

Mm.  This leads me to think that one of Rat and Tai are scum.  [Rou, Tai] is looking more likely to me, but... we'll see.  Must re-read Tai and Snow.  

[SnowFire]

Zenny: To be clear I'm still on board for a Rou lynch.  Basically agree with your list except I know I'm town so therefore the scumteam is probably Tai-Rou with a tiny dose of Rat.  (My main paranoia here is why exactly it's LYLO, if it's something weird and it's 2 scum + 1 evil ITP I'm less sure how this plays and who's who.)

You are correct that I have switched to being in favor of lynching Tai first at the moment, though, especially if he disappears.  This is mostly because Rou's mistakes are...  well.  He's played badly by my judgment all game, but badly for scum too.  As in his first post today wasn't very impressive even if he was scum.  After the Alice mislynch which included "bad play" grounds...  well, it's possible this could be the same thing here.  Roukanken has said outright that he's been distracted IRL and not really in the mood for Mafia, I believe.

If Rou has played badly, then Tai switched over to outright scummy / suspicious with his earlier posts today.  The role meta is just way too convenient here.  Ignoring Rou for a moment, N1 Tai hits Noyn, N2 Tai hits ???, Tai now says himself his D2 claim was an attempt to save himself, but he left in enough doubt so that we could never hold him to anything if a towny had claimed tracker / watcher and his N1 / N2 ability had gone somewhere else?  And Tai *did not know and did not guess what his role did* if he is to be believed, which strains credulity?  Bluntly, I think Tai is smarter than this and that Excal is not a complete bastard mod.  I think Tai thought of a cute way to "gotcha" someone off the fact that his posts were a little vague.  Now why would a townie want to do that?   That case is just....  amazingly scummy to me.  Easily scummy enough to propel Tai to the top of the list.

And lynch ragequitters (who aren't lynched by mod)?  Yes.  Same goes for people who extreme-lurk during LYLO: both aren't around and thus don't have to say anything.  Town can't ever set a precedent that this is okay, or else scum will always do it, disappear, and win with it.  I'm serious.  If you're wondering if I made up this meta conveniently, ( http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php/topic,3198.msg58081.html#msg58081 ) is a post by confirmed-townie-me in Watchmen Mafia advocating the same thing, though in that case Dan Dreiberg was an extreme lurker.  (although don't turn the page, that game has a sad ending that is my fault.  sorry Carth.)

Jammin' ninja'd!

Nobody has claimed to have been powered down, either, and I certainly was D2 so I know the role exists.

Sounds like it might have been Carthrat?  He said he was pre-emptively roleblocked for tomorrow on his doc ability.  That sounds like a level-down to me, though I'll let Rat confirm / deny this since I've already been attacked for "knowing too much."  To be clear, this is just an educated guess based on the fact that most power-changers kick in the next night and only last one night.

I have a theory here as well about the level-down effects, though I'm not sure how relevant it is if true.  Will wait for fullclaim to post it regardless.

[Kilgamayan]

Snowfire brings up exactly why I didn't like that push. I had more or less assumed Tai gave out powerups myself, based on his partial claim and the mechanics of the game.

Pretty much set to vote Tai after how these last few posts have gone down, barring something gamebreaking in terms of roleclaims. Not sure about his partner, though.

[Cotigo]

Okay, Bard hasn't claimed but I saw that Kilga claimed to be BP when powered up, and well whatever LEEEROOOOOY JENKINS.

I am Odin, All Father of Norse Mythology turned megalomaniac by fanfic game turned failjanitor by fanfic site.  Normally vanilla, when I am powered down I become the BELOVED All Father.  I was kind of shitting bricks about even being targetted Day 2 because if pressed for a roleclaim it would have been just as bad for Town as if I had gotten lynched.  In any case, I'm not powered down now, and if the power-downer still exists and is scum well it doesn't matter because tomorrow will still be LYLO if we make it past today anyway.

(Note that because of how Day 2 went I was tempted to ask Excal to modkill me and make this game end in the worstBEST WAY EVER.  However, I did not.)

So, that's all the roles out, basically.  

Taishyr... ugh, this re-read makes me want to vote him out of spite.  It doesn't feel like he was trying to badger Xanth out of the game, but it certainly does look like he was belaboring a point hard in an attempt to get Xanth to waste his time responding, which... worked out really well.  I also really don't like how he tunnelled things down to Alice,Rat at the end but...

Hm.  And his day 3 posts... tch.  Snow brings up a very good point, and honestly on a re-read I don't have much to pin on Snow at all but that might just be me getting lazy about this.  

I think there's a good chance our scumteam is Rou/Tai.  I'll wait for Bard to get his thoughts in before I vote, though, and maybe I'll dump even more time into this and do some Snow/Kilga analysis (really don't like the push for "well I'm done let's vote" but I agree with the argument behind it, so... ugh.)

[Cotigo]

For the record, it was pretty clear that I had gotten powered down.  Not sure Carth would call it a preemptive roleblock but maybe the wording was different.  Mine was all "something bad happened to you and you're spiteful so if you go down you're taking everyone with you kthxbai"

[Kilgamayan]

If you'd like me to expand on why I plan to vote Tai then I can, but I think I've already gone over most of it during the night, and Snow has already covered today for me and I didn't feel the need to repeat him on the AtE thing at least.

I'm in no particular hurry beyond the soft deadline, but honestly, I highly doubt something is going to come out that will make me change my mind at this point.

Also, just for the record, I'm Jin Shirato from Persona 3. While nameclaiming I'd also like to add that Excal explicitly stated scum would be given safe fakeclaims, so Roukan trying to rouse paranoia over characters being from the same game does not sit well with me at all (as obvious-to-the-point-of-unlikely a Tai/Rou team is after their attempted dash to Snowfire over nothing meaningful today). Not that I couldn't have said this during the night, but you seem somewhat anxious about people potentially jumping the gun, so.

[Cotigo]

Eh, there's some precedent for it.  Noyn's cover was apparently Janice from CC, and Alice was Radius from the same game.  Not that I have any respect for meta-ing off of that instead of off the roles.

I... think I agree that there's very little that would make me vote for someone other than Rou/Tai today, unless Bard has some sparkling new insight that pushes Snow over Tai or makes it really really obvious that Bard is scum.  But you know, last time I saw that people were all "discussion done let's vote" it was scum doing it so I'd really rather let everyone have their say.

[Kilgamayan]

Actually, there's one other loose end I'd like to try to tie up. I've been lying in bed and unable to fall asleep and it's been bugging me.

Where the hell did my Night 0 BP charge come from?

- Glen claimed a weak RB power that wasn't used.
- Xanth claimed chargeable vanilla.
- Alice claimed Amnesiac Cop, "confirmed" by Bard to not be the source of anything else.
- Roukan claimed chargeable vanilla.
- Rat claimed to have not targeted anyone Night 0.
- Snow claimed chargeable vanilla.
- Tai claimed power booster but also claimed to target Roukan Night 0.
- Zenny claimed chargeable (well, dechargeable) vanilla.

This leaves four possible sources.

- Bard: MC has claimed a charging power, confirmed by Snow. Bard, who did MC target Night 0?
- Ciato: Possible, but a non-BP ITP role that charges other players? Uh.
- Noyn: Also possible, but if Tai is scum I very much doubt Noyn also had a charging role, because giving scum two charging roles out of three scums is...not something I'm prepared to believe. (Unless there are four of them? Maybe...) (This also assumes Tai has a charging role, which it's possible he's being a lying scum about, but he and Roukan would have been playing a high-risk low-reward gambit on Day 2 if that really was a bunch of lies.)
- Yoshi: Also possible, but with a name like "Poisoner", I kinda doubt it. I have some speculations on what Yoshi's role might have actually been but they're just speculations and I don't see a need to voice them at the risk of giving scum extra ideas if I'm right.

If it wasn't Bard I'm stumped, because I would have a very hard time believing any of the other options.

[Kilgamayan]

Nothing overnight? Sad face.

Gonna be out most of today, going hiking with my dad.

[Carthrat]

Well, I was given some RPG-related gobbledegook about lacking Res, and told that I don't feel well, so I can't use powers tonight. Powered down? Could be! I dunno.

I... honestly don't get Snow's rational for being thrilled to be killed, seems a bit silly when by killing someone at night he could claim vig the following and score some free cred owing to the sheer unlikelyhood of scum having double kill powers (Yes it's happened, I know, but it's also really rare, so.) I do understand why he might not use the vig, but man do I not like how he played the rolegame and when I'm thinking on these lines I'm usually right, so! I'd have bought "I wasn't thinking" over that, honestly, quick glance at his post seems he's doing it just because he sees other people claiming things? Don't like the 'going along with the crowd' mentality. Really quite suspicious there. Would be prepared to vote him on that owing to lack of sufficient other impetus.

Don't think he can be scumbuddies with Tai the way today has gone, don't really want to see Tai lynched as a result.