DL Mafia GAME OVER Scum Win

[SnowFire]

On second thought I think I'll hold off on my piece of level-down speculation after seeing Kilga's post.  Like I noted before, it's probably irrelevant if true, and might *theoretically* come up if scum raise it.

Rat: Yes, I was "going along with the crowd" on the claim, but Xanth seemed like a fairly towny crowd and there's precedent for making public this kind of effect a la roleblocks.  "Thrilled" might be strong but I did know that I didn't need to live to Day 3 to "reveal" the investigation-by-bullets.  You are correct that I'd have earned townie points had I shot someone, but I was reading Kilga's night posts while deciding my Night 2 action and got the impression I likely wasn't in massive danger of a Day 3 mislynch, as Kilga had me #4 on his list.

[Excal]

12.7 hours remaining in LYLO

[Bardiche]

... Oh wow I spent too much time being... well, that's for the after-game I guess.

Right on Zenthor, I reviewed my case. During writing it up I realise I don't feel that strongly about it as initially thought, but still.

By the way, as everyone's assuming there be two scum, do we propose a double-voter exists? Last I checked we needed 4 votes to lynch someone. If a scum double-voter exists I believe we should've vote/unvoted to have a show of hands but with only few hours remaining I sadly do not think we will have the opportunity to test that theorem, never bother the many flaws with such a plan.

On to Makkotah casing.

----

... Of course his jokevote is peculiar given, heh. "Ciato, doing the Otter-badger?". You'll forgive me if I find that phrasing slightly... ironic given the circumstances, and wonder how he "knew" about Badgers. His flailing regarding "quick-lynching" of Rat is a bit bizarre, although I am not sure if it is downright scummy.

This post changes that however, when he tries to justify himself. Starting an early train is a completely valid Mafia strategy to get Day1 out of jokevote phase and any and all jerking towards OMG TRAIN IS BAD makes me go :/ and unhappy. It is also hilarious to propose scum would so quickly lynch that early in the Day given it'd validly and certainly cost them at least one head and then narrows down the play field to "all who voted Carthrat".

Although it would've been hilarious.

Due to circumstances I am also a bit wary of Makkotah reading something that wasn't specifically said, referring to 'seeing on IRC'... well, you know scum usually have an IRC channel, right? This opens gang way for the grand guignol on the Makkotah/Laggyveil scumteam and honestly it'd be kind of nice if this is the case since it means Cruise Control is go.

In his case against Carthrat there is hypocrisy, regarding: pressure to get people to talk. Yeah, that's what three votes on Rat would do as well earlygame, mate. I don't like people taking arguments in the most convenient way at different moments.

His entire case hinges on "I disagree with him", rather than "what he says is wrong"... which no, not a strong case, even given Day 1 it pretty much sucks given the alternatives and how far into the day it was. No further attempts to actually push a lynch on Carthrat, ends the day with a relatively safe vote on no trains.

Getting this out there because I have already taken waaaaaaay too long posting this.

[Roukanken]

Gah, deadline's almost here. If this gets quickhammered I'm really really sorry.

##Vote: Snowfire

[Excal]

Nine hours remain.

Roukanken has challenged Snowfire to a d-d-d-duel!

[Roukanken]

Wait, nine hours? That's more than I thought. ##Unvote, then, I'll be around for a little longer.

[Excal]

D-D-D-DUEL ACCEPTE...  wait...  unvote?!

Ah dangit.

Duel Rescinded.

Vote Count!

Snowfire (0): Roukanken

[SnowFire]

Back home, and...

...Roukanken you just made my heart stop.

Though on the bright side you sort of tested Bard's doublevote hypothesis.

##VOTE: Taishyr
##UNVOTE: Taishyr

This is not a very good test because if there is a scum doublevoter - which there may or may not be - it might be activated, a la Soviet Alex in Meme Mafia, but why not.

[Excal]

;_; to unvotes

Vote Count
Snowfire (0): Roukanken
Taishyr (0): Snowfire

[SnowFire]

Also Bard, did MC power up Kilga on Night 0?  Kilga asked that question earlier if you missed it.

Rou...  well.  I'll wait to see your next post.

[Roukanken]

OK, apologies for the early snap. I thought the deadline was earlier, and I haven't been able to devote the time to this game I normally would because RL is basically being a bitch to me. I'll say that I started on antidepressants on Tuesday and leave it at that.

Still think Snow is the scummiest guy here, really, but it's Lylo and all. I'm gonna get up as early as I can to be around if a hammer's needed.

Again, I'm really sorry for my lack of contribution. Especially Excal, considering this game's already had plenty of dropouts and ragequits. -_-

[Bardiche]

Also Bard, did MC power up Kilga on Night 0?  Kilga asked that question earlier if you missed it.

Rou...  well.  I'll wait to see your next post.

Yeah sorry been a bit busy so didn't pay close attention.

But yes, MC did in fact power up Kilga on N0.

As far as a fullclaim goes, as MC alluded to with Rat's PURE IDEALS, we are Vinsfeld, wielder of truth, justice and mysterious but PURE ideals.

At night we give an invigorating speech that raises the target's spirits to great heights, allowing them to throw away their logic and kick reason to the curb as their role becomes powered up massively. Naturally we cannot invigorate ourselves!

I have no idea why MC picked the targets she did and do not feel a need to disclose them insofar that MC has already disclosed her N1 target and I feel no immediate need to clarify who was targetted this night, barring revelations. The amount of power uppers in this game is a bit silly but I already suspected a greater amount than normally.

---

As far as Zenthor goes, really no fan of his further way of pursuing a case on Roukanken, and post-TaiXanenigans he's really not picking up any better. His cases just seem a little empty to me, and his zeal in trying to get people to follow his lead is lackluster. S'yeah. I'm not going to be around for deadline so I likely cannot leave my suspicions in the form of a vote, but

##VOTE: Makkotah
##UNVOTE: Makkotah

... should get my intentions across, no?

[SnowFire]

I...  er...  what.

Well, I will say that I believe Rou that he's not following the game closely.  Um.  Trying to figure out if I want to switch over from Tai back to Rou now.  Which unfortunately will mean psychoanalyzing Rou.  Crap.  I do not, do not, do not like so much of this game being "figure out what Xanth / Tai / Rou have in their heads and if they'd really pull this."  Seriously, if any one of Tai or Rou has been town this whole time....  ugh.

(snip)

And actually I just threw away all my thoughts on what Rou's action meant with each potential scumteam because I think I am overanalyzing here.  (okay I still have them if anyone wants them but I don't think it's useful in retrospect.)  To put it briefly, either Rou is scum who said "screw it, last stand time" but then backed off due to realizing town had more time to hang itself, or Rou is town who was skimming the thread, and hopped onto Tai's bandwagon because it was attacking somebody he already thought was scummy from D2, me.  But I think trying to think through motives and what was trying to be accomplished with the unvote is missing the point; Rou said he's not feeling great, and therefore reading diabolical secret plans from this is probably wrong, and it was just a derp (whether it be a scumderp or townderp).  I really do not like handing out free passes on these kind of moves, though, so ack.

Talk this out with me, anyone (but especially Kilga or Zenny).  Really not sure here, though still mildly leaning toward a Tai vote.

Incidentally, speaking of town hanging themselves.  Bard...  I suspect that path would be a "town hangs itself" one, that of voting Zenny.  I sure hope that neither you nor Zenny are scum, at least, though you did say you're not likely to vote it.

[Kilgamayan]

##Vote: Taishyr
##Unvote: Taishyr

Just got back from the hike, too tired to think about anything more, but Rat's post really bugs me for some reason. Hopefully I'll have enough energy later tonight to properly articulate why.

[Kilgamayan]

Also, what's up with this duel thing? HiMElander Mafia on MotK has me a little wary of that situation, even though Excal didn't play in that game.

(Also also thank you Bard for clarifying on my N0 powerup. Much Ado About Nothing, I guess. >_>)

[Excal]

The Duel thing was a bit of flavour from me about how in LYLO the first vote like that almost always ends.  Just me amusing myself.

Vote Count!

Snowfire - Roukanken
Taishyr - Snowfire, Kilga
Zenthor - Bardiche Prime

No votes have actually stuck!

There are seven hours remaining!

[Cotigo]

I get off work and this is a headache.

First off, lolme2kk

##Vote: Roukanken
##Unvote: Roukanken

Now, then.  Bard's case against me is mostly based on my day 1 freak out which I've answered for to the extent that I can.  I have no other excuse other than I overreacted.   All my other responses I'm sure you'll see coming and do nothing to really ease your suspicions.  I meant the IRC channel, the whole badger thing is a coincidence, my case on Carthrat was mostly OMGUS and gut.  

I'm inclined to believe that Rou earnestly thought the deadline was soon.  I was concerned that it was going to happen while I was at work until I checked in on my lunch break.  I'm also willing to grant RL issues as for why he hasn't been around.  I'm not willing to grant that any of this makes him less scummy to me.  Any alignment, town, scum, third party... I wouldn't blame any of them for being sick of this game, especially if RL issues have been popping up.  

Re-reading his posts, I did notice that he makes almost no commentary whatsoever on Rat until Day 3, where he says "there's nothing objectionable that he's said."  Now, I know earlier I said I'd take a bet on Rat not being scum, but... that worries me a little bit.  Also because I don't really see where he's going with the Snow case--he doesn't see why Snow would claim, and he doesn't like the "going along with the crowd mentality" even though Kilga pretty clearly asked everyone to role claim?  And, yes, while Snow doesn't earn townie points for the claim because there was only one NK last night, I'm a little curious as to how this sort of claim would help scum.  I'll also note that though he said he wanted to investigate Rou not once but twice, nothing's really materialized on that front.  I'll grant that this could owe to his writing style, but... I don't know.  I'm less willing to take the bet that Rat isn't scum now than I was before.

Ugh.  Hm.  Now, I have to ask... given how the end of day 3's played out, (Tai,Snow) seems unlikely, and though both (Rou,Snow) and (Rat,Snow) are still on the table (bussing in LYLO... maaaaaay work to make the next LYLO day confusing, I guess?) I find them less likely than (Rou,Rat) and (Rou,Tai).   But do I think that (Tai,Rat) is a plausible scumpair?  I... one, want to get this post out there, and two kind of want other people's thoughts on the matter, so I'll post now, but I have some MOAR READING to do.

[metroid composite]

Because it may help town...

N0 was basically a crapshoot for who to target.  Targeted Kilga because I know he's a good player, so should put the powerup to good use.

N1 Snowfire had come across the towniest to me.

N2 I expexted Snowfire to die, so I chose someone else.  Bard doesn't want to reveal this target yet, so I guess I won't say more?

[SnowFire]

I will say that - and this is probably obvious - we do want to hammer whoever it is we lynch; if the scum do have 3 votes then if town only makes it up to 3 votes, then the scum can force a Nyarlahatbot off at the end - or even worse, if town makes it up to 3 votes but a scummember is on the wagon, they can switch off and make it 3-2.  Bardiche, are you still around now?  You said you won't be around at deadline, but curious to hear your thoughts about non-Zenny cases you suspect (if you're willing to elsewhere than Zenthor, at least - I guess we can go into the Zenny case more, but Zenny has been on many of the same cases I have and has made fairly logical arguments by my reckoning).  If Bardiche isn't around to finish the hammer, this is mildly worrying as myself / Kilga / Zenny are only 3 votes.  For obvious reasons I don't really trust Taishyr / Rou / Rat who all seem to want to lynch me, so hrmm.

Zenny!  Short version is, yes, I think I can buy Tai / Rat at this point - which is not to say it's my guess as to the scumteam, which is still Tai / Rou, but that it's probably about as plausible as Rou / Rat.    I just...  eh.  The case on Rou has been for sloppy play, which makes sense if he's sick of the game, but he still hasn't risen to "seemingly caught scum" like Tai has.  Rou's mention of IRL distraction also makes me nervous about a "bad play" case too.  As for Rat...  let's assume Rat is scum for a moment and Rou/Tai is wrong.  Hmm.  Actually, I think I need to re-read Rat as well, but off the cuff I'd call him more connected to Tai than to Rou?  He did say he'd vote SnowFire > Taishyr, but that's WIFOM to read too much into it.  Will give that a re-read.

Basically, I'm still leaning toward a Taishyr vote, scummy play > bad play.  And I hope that the scumteam IS Taishyr / Rou so that we can laugh over all this wrangling over who to lynch first afterward, but we'll see, I guess.

[Bardiche]

GUYS, GUYS.

I HAD A REVELATION.

Carthrat has posted thrice today, without ever directing the conversation towards a preferred lynch target.

THIS IS OBVIOUS LURKERSCUM STRATEGY AND WE SHOULD LYNCH HIM FOR THIS. ACTIVE LURKING IF EVER I SAW IT.

LAL, AMIRITE?

But no seriously I just re-read the thread before going to bed (what a hobby, what a hobby) and it turns out Carthrat's been pretty passive today which is bad juju!

... HI Snowfire I am around what is the nature of your requests.

[SnowFire]

Hey Bard.  I don't want to rush things but worried about making sure town can complete its hammer.  Would you be willing to stay up, like, at least another 20-30 minutes and then voting for probably one of Tai / Rou / Rat with me / Kilga / Zenny?  Basically, I don't want it to be possible to find scum tie the lynch at 3-3 come deadline, or even mislynch me outright if Roukanken is in fact town outright who wants me dead.

Don't think he can be scumbuddies with Tai the way today has gone, don't really want to see Tai lynched as a result.

Well, it's LYLO.  Assuming Scum!Rat, all he needs is to get one mislynch.  This statement implies that either I should be lynched or someone else (Rou?) should be lynched, so yeah, thinking Tai - Rat makes a fair amount of sense?  If Taishyr is put on the docket, Rat can vote me.  If Rou or someone else is voted, well, yeah, then Tai-Rat just wins.

[Bardiche]

RE: Zenthor, uh whatever. My gut isn't entirely happy with Zenthor and YEAH I KNOW DAY 1 FREAK OUT but eh, I guess I can chalk it up to a null tell sort of since it doesn't really jive with scumbuddies telling him that NO ZENTHOR, YOU ARE THE DEMONS if he'd post that so whatever. He still feels weird but Carthrat's presence has been meh-ish.

Bad opening vote with bad reasoning coming only after the fact for something completely silly because metroid is completely townie to me  and Day 2 he votes Zenthor which is agreeable except his pursuit is non-existant. In fact he just drops that vote, responds to Zenthor to defend himself and then goes off to cuckalooland and doesn't ever make a coherent case on Zenthor not even in the slightest of pressuring him.

Sad Bard is sad.


@Snowfire: Mfffffrbblrblbrfffffffff I have my little brothers coming over tomorrow and it's already 3 AM. Make up your darn mind then.

[SnowFire]

...ack.  Crud.  Kilga?  Zenny?  Any thoughts?

I suggest we all vote Taishyr then so we can get Bard's vote to come with us for sake of a hammer.  This would actually be okay by me socially as well because then I'd enjoy the rest of Friday night regardless of the flip rather than stressing out over re-reads for the next X hours.

[Bardiche]

What no I don't want to vote Taishyr.

Yes he has been incredibly derptastic and I can say I am not happy at all with the Xanth drama but honestly? I don't want to touch that with a tenfoot pole and speculate about it. Roukanken is a natural unless he's playing anonymous then he does A-OK ++




Is it bad that I am leery of the one suggesting for us all to vote someone just for the sake of a hammer?

[SnowFire]

Basically, I don't want it to be possible to find scum tie the lynch at 3-3 come deadline, or even mislynch me outright if Roukanken is in fact town outright who wants me dead.

Normally I'd want to wait and think it over, yes, but even if Kilga / Zenny / I all come to the same conclusion, scum could still upend this and force a lame 50/50 chance lynch.  Unless you can make deadline after all?