Season 60, Week 2: Emo Jesus goes boom

[Pyro]

Godlike:

Ryu4 (BoF4) vs. Van (TotA)
Chelle (WA:XF) vs. Terra (FF6)
Rhapthorne (DQ8)* vs. Lenneth (VPs)
Kurando (SH2) vs. Kyogre (Poke)

Heavy

Justin (G1) vs. Ramsus (XG)
Takaya (P3) vs. Jowy (S2)
Barbarossa (VP) vs. Limstella (FE7)
Adachi (P4) vs. 2-Scias (BoF4)

Middle

Bruiser (ToD) vs. Aelia (VP)
Alexia (WA:XF) vs. Kyle (S5)
Leehalt (WA3) vs. Jaffar (FE7)
Sheena (ToS) vs. 2-Mia (FE9)

Light

Galleon (S5) vs. Gadget Z (S3)
Meg (Suikos) vs Estella (S3)
Doc (CC) vs Rinoa (FF8)
Lucia (SH2) vs. 2-Diego (VH)

[OblivionKnight]

Vandesdelca Musto Fende - Easy: boss vs. non-boss.  Durability is far more that Ryu can take down. 
Chelle - Evade hype from Terra = denied.
Rhapthorne - Has an asterisk next to his name.  That's enough for me.
Kurando - Healing yay.

Justin - Healing, magic, and not sucking balls helps.
Takaya - Massively more durability, great damage, instant death if need-be.  Jowy's happy his magic is void-aligned, at least.
Limstella - Loves the Chinahack form+boss combination in FE7.  Massive durability and offense.
Adachi - Scias...can't immune ID, assuming I remember things correctly. 

Bruiser - lol'd
Alexia - Not from S5
Jaffar - JaffarAll needs an upgrade
Sheena - [23:50] <Hello-DojimathedralWaddleDee> Um, wouldn't Sheena get a bye against -everybody in this field-?

Galleon - Better rune options?  Fails either way.
Meg - Heals
Rinoa - Leviathan...
Diego - Is a Renault

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike:

Ryu4 (BoF4) vs. Van (TotA): What OK said: the durability is far more than Van can take down. Don't try to kill Ryu with physicals. Even if Van does drop one, Ryu will just throw up another.
Chelle (WA:XF) vs. Terra (FF6): Terra's evade and defence are both pretty good so I could definitely see her taking a Chelle turn. However, to me at least, she has to take two.
Rhapthorne (DQ8) vs. Lenneth (VPs): Harharhar Rhapthorne durability against Lenneth1. Alternately, fails to one-round Lenneth2 through her shield and gets 2HKOed.
Kurando (SH2) vs. Kyogre (Poke): It says something about how bad the SH2 speed curve is that I think Kyogre is actually faster? Not that it matters, Kurando can't do anything about that level of damage.

Heavy

Justin (G1) vs. Ramsus (XG): G1 techs were evadable.
Barbarossa (VP) vs. Limstella (FE7): Calamity Blast is too good.

Middle

Alexia (WA:XF) vs. Kyle (S5): Need to look at this match, but strong kneejerk. Kyle is being 2HKOed so can only damage on doubleturns, and he's below average speed + Alexia keeps getting faster + Kyle's attacks could trigger a counter.
Leehalt (WA3) vs. Jaffar (FE7): Think Rule of Vengeance gives him the edge in this slugfest, especially against Jaffar's bad HP, but open to arguemnts.

Light

Galleon (S5) vs. Gadget Z (S3): ... I think.
Meg (Suikos) vs Estella (S3): Meg may not have deserved to upgrade, but she's still way better than most Lights. Maybe she'll get a challenge in the semis.
Doc (CC) vs Rinoa (FF8): CC spoiling FF8.
Lucia (SH2) vs. 2-Diego (VH): Lucia's fairly good for the division despite her ranking, but Diego is outright borderline Middle.

[superaielman]

Donno about Ryu4/Van
Chelle- I think she wins the blitz war offhand? I really need to see where I pegged Chelle's HP at.
Lenneth- I think going first is enough. Blocking sleep would make it a blowout.
Kyogre-Far more offense.

Justin- Don't see Mirror Stance doing shit here.
Barbarossa- Doubling is bad news for Limstella.
Scias- You'd be wrong, he can immune status or ID. Bye Adachi!

Bruiser- Yeah, Aelia's not good. Bruiser is.
Kyle- Not a ton of Alexia respect.
Jaffar- Kneejerk. Jaffar criticals should probably kill off Leehalt before RoV works it's magic.


Galleon- Far tankier.
Meg- Not buying a OHKO, which Estella needs.
Doc- Rinoa fails again.
Diego- Better.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Given that Ramsus' evade works against physical techs in his own game, no reason why it wouldn't work against those from Grandia which also run into evade. I could see saying that Mirror Stance can't deal with MT given the flavour of the move since Ramsus doesn't face any of that, but Justin's only MT move is Heaven and Earth Cut, which he only has enough SP to use once and it isn't anywhere near one-shotting Ramsus.

[OblivionKnight]

So Scias can immune status OR instant death?  Or is status considered instant death?  The forums are loading crappily for me, so I can't actually check right now.  If he immunes just ID, fear paralyzes him long enough for Tohru to win.  If it's status, Mudoon works.  If status gets both, then it's more in favour of the dog.

[Pyro]

Ryu4 (BoF4) vs. Van (TotA)
Chelle (WA:XF) vs. Terra (FF6)
Rhapthorne (DQ8)* vs. Lenneth (VPs): I think Rhapthorne can tank a single Lenneth attack string, which is all he needs to I believe. Unless someone tells me he couldn't double up the ball-fling or something, and even then don't people consider a Ghaleon double-physical? Well, I doubt I'd let him if he couldn't in DQ8.
Kurando (SH2) vs. Kyogre (Poke): OHKO

Heavy

Justin (G1) vs. Ramsus (XG):
Mirror Stance: Evade and Counter for 3 turns; Can’t attack normally during this
Yeah I'm pretty sure Dhyer called out Ramsus as sucking arse and not being able to actually play that game that has been long-hyped.

Takaya (P3) vs. Jowy (S2): So very easy.
Barbarossa (VP) vs. Limstella (FE7): Uh.... I think? Actual boss and all that jazz. Also Calamity Blast hurts.
Adachi (P4) vs. 2-Scias (BoF4)

Middle

Bruiser (ToD) vs. Aelia (VP): I vote this way but I say GO AELIA.
Alexia (WA:XF) vs. Kyle (S5): NEB's analysis works, though honestly I'll bet Kyle should win through doubles. Hm... Alexia -> Kyle Heals -> Alexia -> Kyle Heals -> Alexia -> Kyle Heals -> Kyle Attacks -> Alexia -> Kyle Heals -> Alexia -> Kyle Heals -> Alexia -> Kyle attacks -> Kyle attacks... sounds like it'd be in his favor at least? I don't think a Counter + Revolver sword works.
Leehalt (WA3) vs. Jaffar (FE7): Leehalt has 9000 HP and the average PCHP is like 2800. That means something that just barely 4HKOs Leehalt takes 80% PCHP in counter damage, and something that 2HKOs him takes 160% PCHP. Jaffar has ... 85% PCHP. The only win condition for Jaffar is if he literally OHKOs Leehalt, and average damage isn't pulling that off. Very easy win for the prophet.

If this seems counterintuitive then consider that it is essentially the same thing as focusing damage, and that doing enough damage to 2HKO Leehalt in-game WILL make you eat that much damage. It's basically a case with a boss who unfocuses damage. Kind of like the Sinistrals magic.

Sheena (ToS) vs. 2-Mia (FE9): Mia is so much better it isn't funny.

Light

Galleon (S5) vs. Gadget Z (S3): Physical tanking works, I guess.
Meg (Suikos) vs Estella (S3): Healing is cheaper and faster than Estella's good damage.
Doc (CC) vs Rinoa (FF8): I think he 3 or 2 HKOs and CC has no trouble chipping.
Lucia (SH2) vs. 2-Diego (VH): Diego is good.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Godlike:

Ryu4 (BoF4) vs. Van (TotA) - Van kinda sucks.
Rhapthorne (DQ8) vs. Lenneth (VPs) - Guys, Rhaptorne has perfect accuracy sleep which Lenneth2 can't block. As much as I like mocking Rhappy, Lenneth2 fails (if barely) to OHKO him and gets sleep-locked. Stupid double-acting. -If- you vote Lenneth1, though, Rhappy soooooooo doesn't survive a string. Her damage is well into overkill territory even before the PWS.
Kurando (SH2) vs. Kyogre (Poke) - OHKOs, isn't OHKOed back, the works.


Heavy

Justin (G1) vs. Ramsus (XG) - Justin's techs have no special anti-evade properties. They get owned.
Takaya (P3) vs. Jowy (S2) - Jowy goes first and 2HKOs, and doesn't even -have- to 2HKO.
Barbarossa (VP) vs. Limstella (FE7) - Calamity.
Adachi (P4) vs. Scias (BoF4) - Adachi gets 2HKOed, I think, and the ID is turn three at best against Scias' ID res.

Bruiser (ToD) vs. Aelia (VP) - Middle's in trouble.
Leehalt (WA3) vs. Jaffar (FE7) - Yus,

Galleon (S5) vs. Gadget Z (S3) - Similar durability, similar speed, better damage.
Meg (Suikos) vs Estella (S3) - Estella needs to OHKO and doesn't get to to me.
Doc (CC) vs Rinoa (FF8) - FF8 PC vs. chipping.
Lucia (SH2) vs. Diego (VH) - Lucia does not like counters and going last here. Too bad, she's not a bad Light by any means.

[Monkeyfinger]

Godlike:

Rhapthorne (DQ8) vs. Lenneth (VPs): OHKOs both forms and survives a hit from both. Lenneth1's basic chain is like 130% PCHP, Rhapthorne is fragile for DQ8 but he's above that.

Heavy

Justin (G1) vs. Ramsus (XG): Mirror stance is worthless except against like charged techs (on the order of a turn charge time, not the small fraction grandia ones take) or telegrahped physicals. Spamming a defensive move that can simply be waited against = forfeit. Anyway Ramsus is bad and Justin outslugs him.
Barbarossa (VP) vs. Limstella (FE7): OHKOs
Adachi (P4) vs. 2-Scias (BoF4): Scias can halve both ID and Fear, but he can't immune anything. So, it's a close match. I kneejerk 25% ID as turn 3, myself, so Adachi wins with a fair amount of health left. If it's turn 4 it's closer but I still lean this way.

Middle

Leehalt (WA3) vs. Jaffar (FE7): Durable enough for this even if you don't take the counter damage literally like Pyro does and take it all in terms of PCHP instead. Jaffar's crit would need to be the killing blow, and odds of that are low. If he crits any other time he eats it all as counter damage and that ain't good.

Light

Meg (Suikos) vs Estella (S3): If estella doesn't OHKO, could she still come close enough to finish with a physical?

[Taishyr]

Godlike:

Rhapthorne (DQ8) vs. Lenneth (VPs) - VP1 Lenneth; unsure. EDIT: Mmmm, 4x Lenneth1... gutchecking her way. Even presuming I give Rhappy speed respect (I don't think I do), 2x sleep isn't good enough.
Kurando (SH2) vs. Kyogre (Poke)

Heavy

Adachi (P4) vs. 2-Scias (BoF4) - Welcome to Heavy, Ada*BLAMMO*. Squad of fast healers with ID/Fear resist? Ahaha.

Middle

Bad week for me, a lot of halfplayed games.

Light

Galleon (S5) vs. Gadget Z (S3) - Yup.
Meg (Suikos) vs Estella (S3) - Uh...
Doc (CC) vs Rinoa (FF8) - FF8 vs. chipper.

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike:

Ryu4 (BoF4) vs. Van (TotA)
Chelle (WA:XF) vs. Terra (FF6)- Yeah, Terra isn't taking 2 Chelle turns.
Rhapthorne (DQ8)* vs. Lenneth (VPs)- Lack of focusing respect makes me think that Lenneth probably gets two turns.
Kurando (SH2) vs. Kyogre (Poke)

Heavy

Justin (G1) vs. Ramsus (XG)
Takaya (P3) vs. Jowy (S2)
Barbarossa (VP) vs. Limstella (FE7)
Adachi (P4) vs. 2-Scias (BoF4)

Middle

Bruiser (ToD) vs. Aelia (VP)
Alexia (WA:XF) vs. Kyle (S5)- Math crunch later.
Leehalt (WA3) vs. Jaffar (FE7)
Sheena (ToS) vs. 2-Mia (FE9)

Light

Galleon (S5) vs. Gadget Z (S3)
Meg (Suikos) vs Estella (S3)- Meg has 85% HP and cuts magic by about 5%. Her speed is about 40% SD below average. Estella does 90% to average without accuracy factored in (Aka: This will increase once accuracy is fully factored in. And I doubt lowering crit resistance would more than offset accuracy), and her best move is 33% SD below average. So yeah, Meg's healing might be faster, but it's not really the healing that matters here.
Doc (CC) vs Rinoa (FF8)
Lucia (SH2) vs. 2-Diego (VH)

[Ultradude]

Middle

Leehalt (WA3) vs. Jaffar (FE7) - Mmmm. Probably enough HP, though it's close.
Sheena (ToS) vs. 2-Mia (FE9) - Meh Light vs. Low Heavy. Ha.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Meg (Suikos) vs Estella (S3): If estella doesn't OHKO, could she still come close enough to finish with a physical?

Does it matter? The physical is Ghaleon-level speed and Meg has more healing than Estella has L3/4 charges. If she tries heal-locking with a physical, she's getting lapped sooner than later and that's game.

[Yoshiken]

Godlike:
Kurando (SH2) vs. Kyogre (Poke) - That damage difference is evil, and Kurando's below average MDur to begin with. He probably gets the first turn, but can't do a damn thing with it.

Heavy
Adachi (P4) vs. 2-Scias (BoF4) - Hm, close match. Comes down to whether I see Adachi getting two turns or not, which... I don't think I do, even with the physical reduction.

Middle
Sheena (ToS) vs. 2-Mia (FE9) - BUT BUT BUT KNOCKDOWN?!?! Yeah no.

[Dhyerwolf]

Worth that that factoring Accuracy into the S3 average made the kill point fall to 1780. Estella has 1688 damage, which is 95% damage that comes off faster than Meg's SL.

Meg has 463 HP to a 550 average (84%) and cuts magic by 5%. I'm not sure even completely disregarding all crit resistance is enough to make Estella not OHKO Meg.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Gourry's original damage average was 828 damage. If you see it as high as 800, no OHKO happens.

Also, I dunno how much that matters, but all S2 support/healing spells boost the caster's speed by 40~ the turn they're cast. This also applies to Silent Lake, IIRC.

[Dhyerwolf]

In fairness to the original average, there were a large number of changes between the two besides just level of crit resistance (Accuracy just being one of em! No accuracy numbers of any sort existed until I tested it to death, and as seen in the last revision, that was a pretty big change. Actually having the speed everything went off at and therefore being able to make decisions about when something was just too sluggish also helped a lot).

This is all kind of irrelevance if Meg gets a 40 Speed boost on SL of course! Which actually makes her a lot better to me since it effectively lets her spoil statusers that normally have a pretty big speed advantage over her.

[Clear Tranquil]

Godlike:

Chelle (WA:XF) vs. Terra (FF6)

Heavy

Adachi (P4) vs. 2-Scias (BoF4)

Middle
Alexia (WA:XF) vs. Kyle (S5)

Light

Doc (CC) vs Rinoa (FF8)

Get a good draw Lucia -_-

[DjinnAndTonic]

Godlike:

Ryu4 (BoF4) vs. Van (TotA) - Limit boss vs Ryu, lol~
Chelle (WA:XF) vs. Terra (FF6) - Argh. I don't think even Yamikei-clause Ultima wins this one for Terra...
Rhapthorne (DQ8)* vs. Lenneth (VPs) - VP1HKOLenneth
Kurando (SH2) vs. Kyogre (Poke) - Next week should be interesting.

Heavy

Justin (G1) vs. Ramsus (XG) - I would allow Ramsus to use his Gear form (scaled against Gears, obviously), which might make this match closer. But, argh, I'm already in the middle of two stat topics, don't have time to make a Gear-based XG topic now.
Takaya (P3) vs. Jowy (S2) - kneejerk that he just outslugs.
Barbarossa (VP) vs. Limstella (FE7) - Kneejerk due to Barbarossa durability respect.
Adachi (P4) vs. Scias (BoF4) - I think Scias just OHKOs? My Adachi durability respect is not-good.

Middle

Bruiser (ToD) vs. Aelia (VP)
Alexia (WA:XF) vs. Kyle (S5) - There's so much wrong with this match, flavor-wise.
Leehalt (WA3) vs. Jaffar (FE7) - Leehalt has the better counters.
Sheena (ToS) vs. 2-Mia (FE9) - Get back to Light, Sheena, where you have a vague semblance of being interesting.

Light

Galleon (S5) vs. Gadget Z (S3) - Kneejerk based on damage/durability respect, despite the speed.
Meg (Suikos) vs Estella (S3) - SL hype.
Doc (CC) vs Rinoa (FF8) - Rinoa's a Middle based on GF-Junctioned FF8 cast averages. Certainly enough to beat CC trash.
Lucia (SH2) vs. 2-Diego (VH) - Plot Crests~

[Magic Fanatic]

Godlike:

Ryu4 (BoF4) vs. Van (TotA)
Chelle (WA:XF) vs. Terra (FF6)
Rhapthorne (DQ8)* vs. Lenneth (VPs)
Kurando (SH2) vs. Kyogre (Poke) - Even I have issues seeing Kurando winning here.  Shame.

Heavy

Justin (G1) vs. Ramsus (XG)
Takaya (P3) vs. Jowy (S2)
Barbarossa (VP) vs. Limstella (FE7)
Adachi (P4) vs. 2-Scias (BoF4)

Middle

Bruiser (ToD) vs. Aelia (VP)
Alexia (WA:XF) vs. Kyle (S5)
Leehalt (WA3) vs. Jaffar (FE7) - Leehalt is anti-FE.
Sheena (ToS) vs. 2-Mia (FE9)

Light

Galleon (S5) vs. Gadget Z (S3) - ...Uh...
Meg (Suikos) vs Estella (S3) - The +40 SPD kinda shoves it in Meg's direction.
Doc (CC) vs Rinoa (FF8) - Still debating on the merits of allowing her those GFs.
Lucia (SH2) vs. 2-Diego (VH) - If you allow Lucia the boss spoils of her character quest boss, she has Earth Crest, Gale Crest, Earth Resist, and 100% Paralysis on her physical.  Can Diego handle all that?