Season 62, Week 2: Kuja vs. Persephone in a prettiness contest

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike:

4-Kuja (FF9) vs Persephone (WA5)
Miguel (CC) vs Id (XG)
Arnaud G.Vasquez (WA4) vs Lugia (PKMN)
Gilgamesh (FF5) vs Ryu (BoF3)

Heavy:

Marcello (DQ8) vs 4-Augustine (S3)
Marle (CT) vs Freyjadour (S5)
Rayquaza (PKMN) vs Rapp (G1)
Edna Capone (SH3) vs 2-Garan (SH2)

Middle:

3-Meru (LoD) vs Adray Lasbard (SO3)
Kurtis (Disgaea) vs Titania (FE9)
Hellion (S1) vs Sara (BoF1)
Lute (FE8) vs 2-Flay Gunnar (MK)

Light:

4-Kahn (BoF4) vs Janus (VP1)
Zahhak (S5) vs Cai (Brig)
Nei (S3) vs Laguna Loire (FF8)
Belle (S3) vs 2-Lowen (FE7)

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike:

4-Kuja (FF9) vs Persephone (WA5)
Miguel (CC) vs Id (XG): Confident here at least. Miguel has a 2HKO at worst, and isn't dying before then.
Arnaud G.Vasquez (WA4) vs Lugia (PKMN)
Gilgamesh (FF5) vs Ryu (BoF3)

Unsure on every other Godlike match, headaches.

Heavy:

Marcello (DQ8) vs 4-Augustine (S3): Has a faster 2HKO, I think?
Marle (CT) vs Freyjadour (S5): Haste/heal. The status mostly serves as icing.
Rayquaza (PKMN) vs Rapp (G1): Ray wants some way to block death.
Edna Capone (SH3) vs 2-Garan (SH2): Outslugs fairly easily.

Middle:

3-Meru (LoD) vs Adray Lasbard (SO3): Overwhelms with her far superior speed.
Kurtis (Disgaea) vs Titania (FE9): Both 3HKO each other, Titania goes first by both systems' rules.
Hellion (S1) vs Sara (BoF1): So lame.
Lute (FE8) vs 2-Flay Gunnar (MK): Don't see timed cards being countered in general, so probably Flay. Might need a closer look though.

Light:

4-Kahn (BoF4) vs Janus (VP1): Somehow far closer than...
Zahhak (S5) vs Cai (Brig): ... this.
Nei (S3) vs Laguna Loire (FF8): Can probably tinker with her swing skill to ensure she doesn't give Laguna a limit. Her physical's better than you'd think.
Belle (S3) vs 2-Lowen (FE7): Fairly straightforward.

[Taishyr]

Godlike:

Arnaud G.Vasquez (WA4) vs Lugia (PKMN) - Pretty confident in this.
Gilgamesh (FF5) vs Ryu (BoF3) - Unless Ryu walls all status from his game pre-transform, decently confident this is Gilgy's match.

Heavy:

Marcello (DQ8) vs 4-Augustine (S3)
Marle (CT) vs Freyjadour (S5) - Not confident Marle can afford the haste turn, myself. Could be turned either way on this, but.
Edna Capone (SH3) vs 2-Garan (SH2) - Better boss.

Middle:

3-Meru (LoD) vs Adray Lasbard (SO3) -Gutcheck Meru.
Hellion (S1) vs Sara (BoF1) - Yup.
Lute (FE8) vs 2-Flay Gunnar (MK) - Agree with NEB here.

Light:

4-Kahn (BoF4) vs Janus (VP1)
Nei (S3) vs Laguna Loire (FF8) - The DL owes me a new desk.
Belle (S3) vs 2-Lowen (FE7)

[Dark Holy Elf]

Don't see why Marle couldn't afford the haste turn. It doubles her speed and Freyjadour is only a little faster than her to begin with (both below average, Marle just by more but not super-slow), so she's certainly going to lap him then do whatever the heck she wants with the resulting extra turns.

Ryu has Protectors, which do half status. Unsure whether this should apply to stuff like Frog or not, hence headaches.

[Taishyr]

I see Freyja as just below average and Marle as a slug. So... well, lemme see if I can math this out in my stupid way:

Freyjadour: 99% av. speed (201/203)
Marle: 70.8% av. speed

Freyja nabs his turn at clocktick 1.01, sets up heallock.
Marle nabs her turn at clocktick 1.412, casts Haste.
Freyja nabs next turn at clocktick 2.02...
Marle nabs her next turn at 2.12. Yeah, Freyja just beats her out to turn 2 to me.

Respecting Marle's speed even a bit more tilts this the other way, so I can definitely see it (and Marle would have a turn 1 win argument (Provoke first, then set up), except I do let Freyjadour halve status for this.)

[OblivionKnight]

Godlike:

4-Kuja (FF9) vs Persephone (WA5) - Kuja.  Out-heals anything that isn't chaingun of doom, and simply moves out of that with his awesome speed.
Miguel (CC) vs Id (XG) - Miguel
Arnaud G.Vasquez (WA4) vs Lugia (PKMN) - Arnaud.  Hells yes
Gilgamesh (FF5) vs Ryu (BoF3) - Gilgamesh.  FF12 form demolishes.

Heavy:

Marcello (DQ8) vs 4-Augustine (S3) - Marcello
Marle (CT) vs Freyjadour (S5) - Freyjadour...think S5 rune choices are too much
Rayquaza (PKMN) vs Rapp (G1) - Rapp. 
Edna Capone (SH3) vs 2-Garan (SH2) - Garan. 

Middle:

3-Meru (LoD) vs Adray Lasbard (SO3) - Adray.  Easy MP-kill, since Meru has average MP
Kurtis (Disgaea) vs Titania (FE9) - Kurtis.  Superior boss all-around
Hellion (S1) vs Sara (BoF1) - Hellion.  Starcraft 2 form demolishes.
Lute (FE8) vs 2-Flay Gunnar (MK) - Flay.  MK2 form!

Light:

4-Kahn (BoF4) vs Janus (VP1) - Kahn.  Needs to upgrade...seriously.  MF6 form is broken.  People always complain about this winning your way up demolishing seasons...so just upgrade him already!
Zahhak (S5) vs Cai (Brig) - Zahhak.  Damn bosses
Nei (S3) vs Laguna Loire (FF8) - Laguna
Belle (S3) vs 2-Lowen (FE7) - Belle

[superaielman]

Godlike:

Miguel (CC) vs Id (XG)
Gilgamesh (FF5) vs Ryu (BoF3)- I guess?

Heavy:

Marcello (DQ8) vs 4-Augustine (S3)[/b]- Don't think Augustine can parry his way out of trouble.
Marle (CT) vs Freyjadour (S5)- I think he OHKOs Marle on a crit, and she can't stop him before he gets to that point. Huh. Her best shot is statusing him before he gets that crit, which she may be able to do?  Need to figure out how fast it'll take Freyjadour to crit.
Rayquaza (PKMN) vs Rapp (G1)
Edna Capone (SH3) vs 2-Garan (SH2)- Pending a check on Garan, but my memory says Edna's best was partly physical.

Middle:

3-Meru (LoD) vs Adray Lasbard (SO3)- Meru 4HKOs with her status weapon, and that probably is enough. Adray has to spend his first turn busting his MP or he is eating a nasty lump of damage from BSD, and he has to worry about the threat of status here.
Kurtis (Disgaea) vs Titania (FE9)- Kurtis kind of sucks, but so does Titania, sadly. I'll change my vote if his damage ends up being counterable.
Hellion (S1) vs Sara (BoF1)- Magic weakness. ouch.
Lute (FE8) vs 2-Flay Gunnar (MK)- Strong kneejerk.

Light:

4-Kahn (BoF4) vs Janus (VP1)- I want to argue Janus, but he is pretty bad in the DL.
Zahhak (S5) vs Cai (Brig)- Zahhak. 
Nei (S3) vs Laguna Loire (FF8)
Belle (S3) vs 2-Lowen (FE7)- Belle sucks.

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike:

4-Kuja (FF9) vs Persephone (WA5)
Miguel (CC) vs Id (XG)
Arnaud G.Vasquez (WA4) vs Lugia (PKMN)- I guess Arnaud IDs him? Lugia has always felt not at all Godlike to me.
Gilgamesh (FF5) vs Ryu (BoF3)- Pretty easily too. BoF 3 equips are stupid, so Gilgamesh isn't taking him out in 1 turn. Transform->smite

Heavy:

Marcello (DQ8) vs 4-Augustine (S3)
Marle (CT) vs Freyjadour (S5)- Yeah, she just quite doesn't double turn through haste
Rayquaza (PKMN) vs Rapp (G1)
Edna Capone (SH3) vs 2-Garan (SH2)- No comboing physicals together means Garan has better damage and Edna's stock goes to waste

Middle:

3-Meru (LoD) vs Adray Lasbard (SO3)- Well, Adray can block Paralysis, so any Meru status weapon hype is non-existant. Gut says Adray. Mdef doesn't do anything for status in either game, and Adray has a good number of them.
Kurtis (Disgaea) vs Titania (FE9)
Hellion (S1) vs Sara (BoF1)
Lute (FE8) vs 2-Flay Gunnar (MK)

Light:

4-Kahn (BoF4) vs Janus (VP1)
Zahhak (S5) vs Cai (Brig)
Nei (S3) vs Laguna Loire (FF8)
Belle (S3) vs 2-Lowen (FE7)

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

I see Freyja as just below average and Marle as a slug. So... well, lemme see if I can math this out in my stupid way:

Freyjadour: 99% av. speed (201/203)
Marle: 70.8% av. speed

Freyja nabs his turn at clocktick 1.01, sets up heallock.
Marle nabs her turn at clocktick 1.412, casts Haste.
Freyja nabs next turn at clocktick 2.02...
Marle nabs her next turn at 2.12. Yeah, Freyja just beats her out to turn 2 to me.

Respecting Marle's speed even a bit more tilts this the other way, so I can definitely see it (and Marle would have a turn 1 win argument (Provoke first, then set up), except I do let Freyjadour halve status for this.)

At your speed numbers, Marle averages 105% speed along two turns. That's enough to lap Frey unless something's going wonky (0.708+1.416 = 2.114 turns, 0.99+0.99 = 1.98 turns, she should get a lapping there).

[Taishyr]

She laps after her second turn by the numbers I'm using. 0.99 gets the clockticks at 1.01 and 2.02, Marle only edges a second turn it at 2.12 because Freyja's more than a third of the way to his next turn by the time Marle gets her first. It -does- go Frey->Marle->Frey->Marle->Marle, but she just can't pull that second turn before Frey unless I'm totally missing something. Might be! But don't think I am.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

You have to be at least average speed to be one third of the way into your next turn when 70% speed gets the first. Also, unless something's wildly off, I think spillover CT doesn't count into the next turn in any system I've ever heard off, which sounds like would be necessary for Frey to avoid the lapping (it benefits him far more than Marle in those first two turns). >_>

[Taishyr]

Okay, lemme just toss this straight into here since now you're making me question my own numbers.

[15:46] > roll 201/203
[15:46] * +Hatbot --> "Taishyr rolls 201/203 and gets 0.99014778325123."
[15:47] > roll 100/99
[15:47] * +Hatbot --> "Taishyr rolls 100/99 and gets 1.010101010101."
*snip*
[15:48] > roll 100/70.8
[15:48] * +Hatbot --> "Taishyr rolls 100/70.8 and gets 1.4124293785311." 
[15:49] > roll 100/141.24+K
[15:49] * +Hatbot --> "Taishyr rolls 100/141.24+1.4124293785311 and gets 2.1204441052374."

This is why I'm thinking it works out this way. Basically Frey's second turn comes on 1.01+1.01 = 2.02 clocktick, Marle's turn comes on 1.4+0.7 = 2.1 clockticks. (I know I'm repeating myself. In part I'm not entirely sure where you're coming from is why)

This also makes Frey about 1/3rd of the way to his next turn.

Re: spillover CT, uh? I'm just factoring this as if turns went off instantly (so Frey's CTB here, primarily 'cuz Marle is, otherwise it'd be more straightforward). So he doesn't need to worry about spillover CT unless I'm totally confused as to what you mean.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

I think I'm the one getting confused. Because, seriously, Marle laps -average- speed with Haste under the calculations I'm doing, but that doesn't happen under yours, and something -has- to be wrong at one of the ends - and, if it's on mine, I suspect I've been crazily overrating speed buffs for a long time.

EDIT: I also noticed that Frey's -default- speed is 179, which is well below the 201 he gets upon twinking his speed. If he's going speed-twinked, though, he should be factored against a speed-twinked average, too. Not to mention going for more speed could very well hurt his offense to the point he might risk not 2HKOing Marle without a double swing or a crit.

[Taishyr]

He's not going for speed-twinked with the 201 speed, he's getting the boosts from Untold Clarity/Royal Paradise. (This came up in chat.) He could probably twink for speed -more-, but I would -definitely- be comparing it to other people twinking for speed. As it stands, though, those are his average best options from what I can tell due to the widespread stat boosting.

(This being said since the speed gap is so close, if you drop say Royal Paradise for being too fucking expensive or something then I thiiiink Marle takes the double from that?)

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Royal Paradise -is- pretty sketchy to be taken at least at full levels, yes. I honestly never even -got- it, since it also requires raising a bunch of other skills, but your mileage there. I'm still rather confused on how the same speed numbers seem to come up with results that distinct, though. I think I've just overrated speed buffs all my life then. =/

[alanna82]

How does Rapp beat Rayquaza? In pokemon level affects instant death (ID attacks wont work if you are even one level higher) and doesnt Rayquaza start on something like Level 70? I'd say that makes it immune to ID. I guess if you attack attackers status resistants Rapp IDS though. But I always take defenders definitions.

[Dark Holy Elf]

I disallow Royal Paradise although I don't really think it matters. I doubt Freyjadour can get notably more or less speed with any other setup. In general, I would still consider the speed of a RP/UC Freyjadour against other PCs twinking for speed, but I'm way too lazy to make such an average.

Somewhat more to the point, I think the speed average Tai is using is a bit unfair to Marle. I would use an average where Crono has the Rainbow instead of Swallow, which allows her to lap average speed with Haste. (I don't consider this average for Swallow-Crono, of course!) It's somewhat subjective whether Swallow or Rainbow should be Crono's default, so I have no problem going with the one that doesn't screw over the rest of the cast, especially since for much of the game Marle is only a bit below average (8/9.7) and then Crono/Robo/Lucca randomly get +3 speed from lategame equips (and Swallow's even splitpath, I'd usually get the Safe Helm instead in-game, so... yeah).


--

Alanna: I don't think most people give Ray that level edge? If he gets it he definitely wins for a variety of reasons (Hyper Beam should just OHKO first turn).

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Grandia's ID is not affected by levels at all, and I think Rayquaza is taken at L50 for stat topic purposes even. Not to mention that I'd call that a property of the attacks rather than a property of Pokémon levels. This argument was used in a sense to argue Mewtwo > Galcian before, even. You're free to take it however you want, but I'd say the evidence is against Ray there (heck, doesn't the perfect hit rate skill+ID combo own level differences quite nicely, for instance?).

But see Elfboy, giving Ray the level edge = he wins.

[Dark Holy Elf]

The skill can miss, for what it's worth.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Yeah, I know. Just the argument itself is kinda clusterfucky (level = ID RESISTANCE??!??!?? You could argue all day whether this was a property of Pokémon ID-inflicting skills or a property of Pokémon levels, so I just choose to take the former).

[Taishyr]

I think the ID based on levels was only for RBY, later gens dropped it to simply randochance? NINJANINJANINJANINJA: Nope, I'm wrong! Heh. Eh... Iunno, myself, can see it either way here. More likely to consider it an aspect of PKMN ID skills, though, yeah.

Re: Royal Paradise, what option would Frey take otherwise? Triple Harmony (Atk/Vit/Agility)? Gives him the same speed boost, tho... so eh. I wouldn't see that as speed twinking, either, but YMMV (if he was taking both solely for speed boosts (so Agility/something else) then sure, but these give other buffs that're also useful for him...).

And yeah, Swallow>Rainbow for averages also came up. I... suppose I'm willing to take Swallow because his best damage is magic, if it were phys I'd go Swallow RAINBOW as well. I just kinda am querulous on Rainbow, myself (it's a long sidequesty thing, though CHRONO TRIGGER DIFFICULTY and the game also tells you of it so eeeeeh yeah) and Swallow's a decently quick diversion. Seeing it as splitpath's -totally- fair, mind, but. Eh, again, YMMV.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Hmm, I definitely tend to assume that the player does all the Fated Hour quests because Lavos is a hellbitch when you're even a bit underlevelled (haha MT OHKO magic). At the very least you really, really, really want to do Rainbow Shell for the prism gear, and then Sun Stone is just so quick and easy if you figure out what you have to do (which isn't super-obvious, but eh). Swallow has the split-path thing and even on playthroughs where I've gotten it I've switched it out by the time I got the Shiva Edge, since the power boost is very important in-game. Way too many things resist lightning for Crono to rely entirely on magic. I sorta feel this goes for the DL too... and regardless would rather err on the side that again, doesn't screw over the rest of the cast (who are already being screwed over by the other lategame speed boosts).

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

It's mainly over "oh wow Swallow is a sub-optimal equipment option in-game" because Crono's physical damage is worth more in a general sense than his magical game (DL turns this upside down) by the time Rainbow shows, and Swallow punts his physical game into suck by the time Rainbow is a factor. Swallow/Safe Helm split also is a blow against Swallow's in-game worth and so on. This may or may not be relevant to you, of course.

[Taishyr]

Mmm. I found Swallow to be just fine, but CT DIFFICULTY PLOT. <_<;

(This being said, after calculations in chat we have concluded that Marle vs. Freyjadour is the MOST HILARIOUS MATCH EVER. Or at least until a new MOST HILARIOUS MATCH comes up.)

[Nephrite]

Mmm. I found Swallow to be just fine, but CT DIFFICULTY PLOT. <_<;

(This being said, after calculations in chat we have concluded that Marle vs. Freyjadour is the MOST HILARIOUS MATCH EVER. Or at least until a new MOST HILARIOUS MATCH comes up.)

Banon vs. Shiho.