THE TIME IS NOW, Gents. With just a couple of weeks before the season, and the league (more or less) calmed down to the point where we've declared what teams are going into the season with, it's time for a fresh new NBA topic, and, because no one asked for it, my Analysis on the various teams heading into the season.
LET'S GET THIS PARTY STARTED!
Atlanta Hawks:
~The thing about Atlanta, is that they have plateaued. I think they've finally gotten past the point where they're a "Growing young team" and they have entered the point where they are a known commodity. They have the same essential core that they had before, and they re-signed Joe Johnson to a huge contract (a bit overpaying him) and are going to have to re-sign Al Horford, which means that super sixth man Jamaal Crawford is left as the odd man out at the end of the season. And this is a team that, while good in the old East, is going to drop off some as other teams up the anti. I still feel like they're going to make the playoffs, and do it fairly easily, but no one really thinks this is a championship contending team. And that's not a bad thing, per se. Atlanta's ownership group is pretty much continually embroiled in legal battles amongst itself, among other zaniness. From their perspective, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Winning a championship is simply not on Atlanta's agenda---Their goal is to field an exciting, competitive team and put butts in seats. Which is something they'll get when they have a perennial playoff team like the Hawks.
Boston Celtics:
~With the hubbub in Miami, people have been selling the Cs short, and though it pains me to admit it, this team is still really, really good. Top-to-bottom, it's well constructed, with one of the best starting lineups in the league----they'd probably be THE best starting lineup if Kendrick Perkins wasn't injured----and a very solid bench with some great contributors. It'll be interesting to see how the O'neals handle the duties that Perkins was taking care of, because, for all the shit I give the guy, Perk is a really great defender---probably more important to the Celtics' success than anyone on the team except Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo. They also played the Lakers to a very close 7 games last season, so as near as I can tell, they're the best team in the East until someone beats them.
Charlotte Bobcats:
~There's little to say about the Bobcats at this point, because they haven't changed all that much since the previous season. They ejected Raymond Felton for DJ Augustin, but no coach in the history of the Bobcats has actually used Felton correctly, so it's hard to say if that'll lead to an improvement or a drop-off. I honestly haven't seen enough of Augustin to determine what kind of a player he is, so it strikes me that the 'cats are taking a bit of a risk here. I like them deciding to re-sign Tyrus Thomas during the off-season, because he's a player that is going to get shit from a lot of the press and draw a lot of ire, but he can still produce, especially on the defensive end of the ball, and he can have an exciting play, and that's the kind of player the Bobcats have. There's a bit of the Larry Brown "I'm going to collect players labled as 'troubled' by other coaches", and I think that this coach, this team, and this franchise are a good fit for what it needs----The Bobcats are too new and too backwater for any big-time players to want to go to, but if they collect enough solid pieces that other teams might stay away from, they just might get something going to get noticed. If the talent gets built up naturally, people will want to come and play. Right now, the Bobcats are one of the teams that will be competing for a low playoff spot in the East, and probably the one from last season most in danger of losing their previous position.
Chicago Bulls:
~Lost in the talks of the East is Chicago: a team that, without all that much fanfare, went and got Carlos Boozer in free agency after losing out to Miami for both LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Chicago is a team that has very few holes as far as its construction. Almost the opposite of what they used to be, the Bulls have turned into a team with very little by way of perimeter scoring. They did, however, pick up Kyle Korver, who has proven time and again with bad perimeter teams, that he's very comfortable being the designated long ball guy. Derrick Rose has also proclaimed that he's improved his shooting, but like most claims by players, I'll believe it when I see it. I'm not entirely sure that the move to get Boozer will put the Bulls over the top, but they are a very strong team that did, in fact, just get quite a bit stronger. For my money, they're probably the fourth best team in the East now.
Cleveland Cavaliers:
~It's very easy to count the Cavs out after the departure of James, and by the metric of "could they win a championship", well, I'd be an idiot not to agree. But there's an awful lot of hyperbole about them suddenly being the worst team in the league, or the worst team in the East, or incapable of making the playoffs---and it's just that. Hyperbole. Actually, when you get right down to it, the Cavs weren't a particularly poorly constructed team---they just had a serious tendency to think short-term, which I think hurt them a bit. But if you look at the pieces that are still there, Jamison can play once he's adjusted to a system. Mo Williams can still play. Anderson Verajao will be a good contributor as long as he's never allowed to touch the ball. Hickson is actually quite a bit better than people may think----being the replacement to LeBron is going to be some awful big shoes to fill, and he's in no way capable of doing that, but the kid is athletic and talented and may surprise some people with the numbers that he's going to put up this season. Getting rid of Mike Brown is essential, because MAN OH MAN. Aside from defensive schemes, Mike Brown is just a really shitty coach.
Dallas Mavericks:
~Very possibly the deepest team in the league, although the Celtics or Blazers could definitely give them a run for their money in that regard. The Mavericks continue to frustrate me, as it's no secret that I'm a pretty huge Dallas fan. On paper, this might be the best team in the league, although Dirk and especially Jason Kidd aren't getting any younger. Really, though, having Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler makes for yet another two-headed monster at center, where both are very good defenders, and capable of putting the ball in the basket--provided you don't ask them to too often. Beaubois continuing to develop is important for this team, and assuming Shawn Marion and Caron Butler can play on the wings together, this is a team that, like every year, rightfully ought to be competing for a title, but often has difficulties making it past the first round. I just.... don't understand why.
Denver Nuggets:
~All right. I've pretty much had it with Carmelo Anthony. I gave him another chance, I stood up and admitted when he was finally starting to get it and become a better player internally, which is really where he needs to develop, because the skills are all there. But the guy is an asshole. Although he claims he never said anything about wanting to be traded, George Karl definitely talks about how he did, and if there's one thing George Karl is actually good for, it's telling shit like it is. How someone can be on one of the better teams in the league and decide to say "You know what? I want to be traded to a contender" is beyond me. If he walks away like LeBron did, then I can't blame him---he doesn't owe anything to Denver. But the opposite is also true. Denver sure as shit doesn't owe him anything. His team is built VERY well from top to bottom, with guys like Martin and Nene up front being really nasty on the inside, and a bench with sparkplugs like Chris Anderson, who'll sometimes crush a team on defense and the glass, and JR Smith, who'll sometimes win a game by himself. Earth to Melo: YOU'RE ON A FUCKING CONTENDER. AND YOU CAN'T WIN. Maybe you don't deserve to win anything. You're too fucking young to be clamoring for a championship, you whiny little brat. Where the Nuggets go depends entirely on what happens with the Anthony situation.
Detroit Pistons:
~My pick for worst team in the league, at least in taking the long-view. I actually almost incited a local guy into a fist fight with me over this sentiment, in case you forgot what state I live in. The Pistons are built comically bad, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Dumars sacked fairly soon, because the last couple of years have reflected poorly on him, particularly last off-season. Two of their best (and highest paid) players play the same position. They drastically overpaid for Charlie Villanueva, who by all rights should be a lifetime bench player, but keeps finding his way into starting lineups. If T-Mac (did you know he was on the Pistons? YOU DO NOW!) comes back in any semblance, all he is is another shooting guard. The guy I got in an argument with was trying to say that Rodney Stuckey was the way of the future, and if that's the case, then I feel pretty goddamn bad for Detroit. I can't think of another team in the league that would happily start Stuckey. I used to say the Grizzlies would, but as it turns out, Mike Conley Jr. has actually been improving, so I'm not sure they would, either. Maybe Austin Daye turns out well, but that's about all they have going for them. Jonas Jerebko was a good pickup last year, but ruptured his achilles tendon, so that's one more solid piece the Pistons are missing. This is a team with no cap-space, aging and limited talent, a conflict of interest when it comes to the best players, and no future.
Golden State Warriors:
~Things are looking up for a team now that they have an entirely new front office and owner. They start things off by adding David Lee, which is actually pretty damn big news, because he's the sort of guy that the team needs. Steph Curry was amazing last year and looks to continue that trend after a more-than-solid performance with the USA Men's National Team. Monte Ellis is still really good, if a bit of a jackass, and Don Nelson is gone, which means less-visually exciting games, but probably a much greater shot of actually winning games in the long-term, because now guys who have actual size can see time on the court. The David Lee pickup is pretty darn huge for them, because he's actually really good. People say that when you're on a bad team, someone has to get the points and so on, but this is demonstrably false. When you're on a team with good players, it's easier to score and rebound and play effectively. When you look at a team like Miami, sure, I'd expect the scoring of Wade and LeBron to go down (I'd expect Bosh's scoring to -increase-), but their already monstrous efficiency is almost certainly going to improve from the lessened pressure on them. The Warriors are a better team than the Knicks were last year, so I'd expect David Lee to perform a little better, and he was already a damn good performer. Where Golden State ends up depends on how much they improve on defense. They actually have half of defense down---they force more turnovers and get more steals than anyone. If they can get actual stops to compliment that, then they should be right back in the playoff race.
Houston Rockets:
~Yao claims he's healthy, but I'm not sure I can agree with that sentiment. There's little to the Rockets this year that's particularly new. They have a great front office, they have a knack for surrounding their players with winning, capable talent that performs way above their level. The big difference is that this time around it's Kevin Martin and Yao Ming that need to stay healthy, instead of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. Assuming Yao isn't as brittle this year, then there's a good chance they'll make some noise with this squad, but in the end, I half to think that we'll see more tragedy in Houston, which is just a shame, because they do so much right.
Indiana Pacers:
~This is a team that I think is on the rise, but after being disappointed by the Pacers time and again, I'm not going to declare them a serious playoff capable team. No, instead I think the Pacers are a team that is going to improve incrementally for the next few years, and then we'll see what happens. In events that surprised everyone, ALL of the Pacers' rookies seem like they'll become pretty solid basketball players one day, which is a big shot in the arm to a team that's low on talent. ...Actually, if I had to name a problem I had with the Pacers, it's that, as an organization, they have no gamble to them. Time and again, the Pacers pick the proven commodity over taking any semblance of a risk, and sometimes, that's exactly what you need to do. I think that they'll be happy with Collison as their new Point Guard, for instance. I do not think, however, that it's what you do when you're already at the bottom, where you have so little to lose. A really good team taking a big risk to get a little better is generally a pretty stupid move in my book, but if a BAD team takes a big risk to get better-----they don't exactly have much to feel too bad about. Also worth keeping track of is Tyler Hansborough's vertigo, which to me, is a really fucking scary "injury", if you could call it that. I'm worried that the kid has some kind of underlying medical condition that no one has recognized yet, and he's pretty much the top of my list of "Players who might die this year". After Jamaal Tinsley, it's nice to know that the Pacers are consistent in something.
LA Clippers:
~A sleeper team this year. It's easy to rule the Clippers out because, well, they're the Clippers, but people seem to forget that they have last year's number one draft pick, Blake Griffin, lurking around, and he's not only healthy, he's also been an absolute MONSTER in the pre-season, dropping averages of 17 and 12 with an efficiency rating that would put him in the top 10 of all players last season. He's paired up on the inside with Chris Kaman, who is one of the best Centers in the league, and Baron Davis is running the point. Davis got a lot of shit last season for not playing well enough, but he put up 15 points and 8 assists a game, and managed to play 75 games. He's not brittle anymore, and when he wants to be, he's still pretty much unguardable inside, because he's just so damn big compared to every other point guard in the league. Between the three of them, they can pound the ball relentlessly into the post and there's not a whole lot other teams can do about it. As insurance, they have the very capable shooter Eric Gordon floating around on the outside, willing to make teams pay for collapsing on the interior. This is a team that's ready for a playoff run RIGHT NOW, and on top of it, they have cap space. When I asked the guy I argued with about the Pistons who he thought had a worse long-term future, he said "The Clippers", and that was when I dropped the conversation because the dude just isn't paying attention to basketball.
LA Lakers:
~I'd talk at length about how this is a team that everyone's forgotten about somehow, despite the chance that they're the returning two-time champions, but actually, that's the narrative everyone ELSE is running with, which means it's completely false. Because people ARE still talking about the Lakers. No, the real news is, there's no big stories surrounding the Lakers. And why should there be? They didn't DO anything in the off-season. They didn't need to. The Lakers, in my mind, are NBA champions until someone pries that trophy away from them. They are the best team in the league.
Memphis Grizzlies:
~Another team that is rising slowly. Offensively, this team is damn good. And size-wise, they're pretty terrifying with a 1-2 punch of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolf. Randolf is a total headcase, but by accounts, has gotten somewhat better about it last year, and hey, he'll still give you a reliable (albeit crazy person) 20-10 a night, which is never something to sneeze at. I usually like to give Mike Conley shit, and that's because he's not really good, but I look at his stats, and he's actually been improving incrementally over the past few seasons. He might just keep it up, especially as the rest of the guys grow and develop, too. They gave Rudy Gay a nice big pay-day, but he's a solid player, and no one in their right mind is going to come to Memphis anyway, so it's a good move for them, especially if they continue to improve from the inside----there's a little about what I said about the Bobcats coming into play here. You're not on the map until you put yourself on the map. I'm far from a Grizzlies fan, but I certainly respect what they're doing.
Miami Heat:
~Where do I begin?
OK, how is it that we're anointing this team NBA champions already, even though these same three players, surrounded by a much greater range of talent, couldn't beat the Greek national team a few years back? Could the 2006 Greek National team win the NBA championship?
I know, I know. It's not a fair argument. And hey, Boston recently put together 3 guys and totally won the championship, right?
Well, no. Boston had a great bench, and a starting lineup rounded out by Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins----particularly the latter, for all that Rondo is way better on defense than Carlos Arroyo. For all the hype this team has around it, I honestly don't see how they plan on beating Boston or Orlando to take the East this year---And I'm not firmly sold on the idea that they're better than Chicago or Milwaukee, either. They have absolutely no one on this team that can defend the post. Bosh won't. James won't. Their starting center, Joel Anthony, is athletic and big, but he's insanely raw, and a veteran big like Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard, or Andrew Bogut is going to clown him into foul trouble REALLY quickly. They have some serious firepower and talent with Wade, Bosh, and James, but without anything protecting the inside, they're not going to beat the Magic, and they're CERTAINLY not going to beat the Lakers. So no, I don't really buy into the hype---at least in regards to this season.
THAT SAID, the long-term outlook for this team is absurdly good. The salaries of the big three (The biggest three? The HUGE three?) will keep some free agents away, but the Heat have the enviable position of being able to sign agents and draft picks ENTIRELY based on need----they can put themselves in "championship mode" right now with regards to building, and their three main pieces are so young, that it's not mortgaging their future----this IS their future. So while I don't think this is the year of the Heat, I think they'll have a hell of a coming out party, and that they'll quickly be the team to beat with a little finagling in the next couple of seasons.
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Anyhow, I have to get to class, and "halfway" is as good a place to stop as any. I'll post the rest of my thoughts either later tonight or tomorrow.
