Season 63, Week 1

[superaielman]

Godlike:

1-Xorn (G3) vs Rashidi (OB)
Rosa Harvey (FF4) vs Xenobia (Lunar:SSSC)
Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Magus (CT)
Zio (PS4) vs 4-Melfice (G2)

Heavy:

1-Surt (VP1) vs Fei Wong Fong (XG)
Alfina de Pamela (G3) vs Eileen (S1)
Zalbard (SF2) vs Yuiri (S3)
Ershin (BoF4) vs 4-Georg Prime (Suikos)

Middle:

1-Albel Nox (SO3) vs Shion Uzuki (XSs)
Gallows Caradine (WA3) vs Garr (BoF3)
Gen (Saga) vs Mio (G1)
Paula (EB) vs 3-Alma Beoulve (FFT)

Light:

1-Gares (OB) vs Jogurt (SF1)
Kirkis (S1) vs Kahn (BoF4)
Maria Balthasar (XG) vs Innes (FE8)
Connie (S3) vs 4-Alonso (G3)

[superaielman]

Godlike:

Xorn- Rashidi handles his pre limit phase pretty easily, then explodes when Death Knell is unlocked.
Rosa- Block stone, slowly win the saddest Godlike fight this side of Lynx/Guido. Xenobia just gives Rosa too much time to work with.
Chris- Sure, I'll buy crits piercing the barrier.
Melfice- 3-2, 3HKO. I think.

Heavy:

Fei- Go first, smash Surt's face in.
Eileen- No SP=no status=Alfina goes boom.
Zalbad- Good heavy versus a bad one. Zalbard also mauls healers as a rule.
Ershin- Death off a physical tank is not Georg's friend.

Middle:

Shion- XS3 Shion. 1/2 would get owned by confusion/drain at least.
Gallows Caradine (WA3) vs Garr (BoF3) - Don't care.
Mio- Status, I guess?


Gares- It's Jogurt.
Don't know or care about Kahn/Kirkis.
Innes- It's Maria
Alonso- It's connie.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike:

Rosa Harvey (FF4) vs Xenobia (Lunar:SSSC): Um... weird, but I think Rosa? She might run out of resources though. This is close.
Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Magus (CT): The ITD part of crits should remove any doubt. She can outlast Magus for ages I think.
Zio (PS4) vs 4-Melfice (G2): 2HKO, isn't 2HKOed, or even 3HKOed if the 3-2 happens.

Heavy:

1-Surt (VP1) vs Fei Wong Fong (XG): Has enough HP for this, to me. Fei's like 90%? Two shots of that shouldn't kill Surt, though it's not far from it.
Alfina de Pamela (G3) vs Eileen (S1): Paralysis stops the Copper Flesh nonsense well enough.
Zalbard (SF2) vs Yuiri (S3): 2HKOs and doubles.
Ershin (BoF4) vs 4-Georg Prime (Suikos): Thinking epic Georg MDef = Death is turn 1. There's also a possibility Ershin tanks 2 turns, I'd have to look that up.

Middle:

1-Albel Nox (SO3) vs Shion Uzuki (XSs): uhhhhh
Gallows Caradine (WA3) vs Garr (BoF3): Garr is sadly quite bad.
Gen (Saga) vs Mio (G1): Think Gen may just manage the OHKO here? Not sure. Loses horribly if he doesn't.

Light:

Kirkis (S1) vs Kahn (BoF4): Kirkis's evade means Kahn may need two focussed punches (4 turns) to kill. However he completely wastes this by failing to 4HKO himself. wtf.
Maria Balthasar (XG) vs Innes (FE8): ... does Innes DOUBLE here? Anyway, not that he has to. Should 2HKO easily.
Connie (S3) vs 4-Alonso (G3): Ummm... yeah.

Clearly I should just vote for Rosa/Albel/Gen for left sweep of everything but Light, right sweep of Light. And that is how I'm leaning on all three anyway I think!

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Godlike:

Xorn (G3) vs Rashidi (OB) - Rashidi ain't stopping Xorn from landing his ITE high 2HKO physical that OHKOs him - Death Knell isn't even a factor there, hilariously.
Rosa Harvey (FF4) vs Xenobia (Lunar:SSSC) - Stone immunity+Lightning resistance+Image to handle Xenobia's physical, I want to say. Dear god this is -sad-.
Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Magus (CT) - Dear god SL'd Magus fails.
Zio (PS4) vs 4-Melfice (G2) - Zio does -not- have 1.5x PC HP for pdur ever. Melfice gets the 3-2, but not the 3HKO, and he eats a 2HKO with no fuss.

Heavy:

1-Surt (VP1) vs Fei Wong Fong (XG) - See NEB. EDIT: this is mainly due to the pdef - Surt has pretty good defense. The HP alone would see him 2HKOed to me, though.
Alfina de Pamela (G3) vs Eileen (S1) - Paralysis nonsense indeed. It even makes Alfina's shoddy healing useful here, truth be told.
Zalbard (SF2) vs Yuiri (S3) - Poor Yuiri.
Ershin (BoF4) vs 4-Georg Prime (Suikos) -

Ershin (BoF4) vs 4-Georg Prime (Suikos): Thinking epic Georg MDef = Death is turn 1. There's also a possibility Ershin tanks 2 turns, I'd have to look that up.

Math nerdery to the rescue! After running calcs over what NEB told me seasons ago when Nina4 lost to Kasumi, I did some calcing over Ershin's pdur. Before the 25% physical resistance, Ershin has roughly 1.8x PC HP. That alone -might- let her survive two Georg turns on average. With the resistance factored in, that rises to a nice rough 2.2x~ PC HP figure. So um yeah, unless Georg gets lucky, Ershin is perfectly capable of tanking two of his turns - and he could very well get -unlucky- instead. Of course, Georg MDef of incredible epic makes Ershin's Death accuracy practically 100% to me here, and Yellow Scarf resistance doesn't cover ID either. Bad match for him.  

Middle:

Albel Nox (SO3) vs Shion Uzuki (XSs) - uuuuuuh confuse
Gallows Caradine (WA3) vs Garr (BoF3) - Garr is -awful-.
Gen (Saga) vs Mio (G1) - Do I see Mio as having more than 62% PC HP? Um let me check her stats.

...

3000 HP TO AN 850 DAMAGE AVERAGE? Even taking some support credit due to being a multi-PC fight, I really can't see as anything over 0.5x PC HP - without support credit, that figure goes down to Moppy-like HP (0.35x PC HP? WIN) . OHKO it is. Fail, Grandia bosses.
Paula (EB) vs Alma Beoulve (FFT) - Alma gets the first hit in and then just Mbarrier spams until Paula's own barrier runs out and finishes the job. This is actually pretty easy, since Paula HP is completely horrible.

Light:

Gares (OB) vs Jogurt (SF1) - Poor Gares.
Kirkis (S1) vs Kahn (BoF4) - sure.
Maria Balthasar (XG) vs Innes (FE8) - um wow maria.
Connie (S3) vs 4-Alonso (G3) - uuuuuuuh wow

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike:

1-Xorn (G3) vs Rashidi (OB)
Rosa Harvey (FF4) vs Xenobia (Lunar:SSSC)
Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Magus (CT)
Zio (PS4) vs 4-Melfice (G2)- Melfice wishes he could 3HKO Zio.

Heavy:

1-Surt (VP1) vs Fei Wong Fong (XG)- Hmm, this is really close. I'm leaning more on Fei's side, but won't mind either winning.
Alfina de Pamela (G3) vs Eileen (S1)- Hmm, well, my initial thought when this was rolled was that Eileen could still win because Paralysis could wear off at a really bad, bad time. With full SP though, Paralysis->Armageddeon to ruin Eileen stats would probably do it. At half SP though...hmm
Zalbard (SF2) vs Yuiri (S3)
Ershin (BoF4) vs 4-Georg Prime (Suikos)

Middle:

1-Albel Nox (SO3) vs Shion Uzuki (XSs)- XS 3 might do it, but the ranked forms do not
Gallows Caradine (WA3) vs Garr (BoF3)
Gen (Saga) vs Mio (G1)- Mio doesn't need too much support credit to live a turn here, since without support, she's at slightly under 50% HP base. Maybe see her at around 75% HP
Paula (EB) vs 3-Alma Beoulve (FFT)

Light:

1-Gares (OB) vs Jogurt (SF1)
Kirkis (S1) vs Kahn (BoF4)- Abstaining for now. Kirkis should have awesome evade, which could really mess Kahn up.
Maria Balthasar (XG) vs Innes (FE8)
Connie (S3) vs 4-Alonso (G3)

[OblivionKnight]

Godlike:

1-Xorn (G3) vs Rashidi (OB) - lol
Rosa Harvey (FF4) vs Xenobia (Lunar:SSSC) - Can't kill.  White runs her out of MP, and her regular damage is awful.  Blocking stone is good, but Xenobia can deal damage.
Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Magus (CT) - MF6 is far more durable than Chris can deal with.  Get the hell out of Godlike, Chris
Zio (PS4) vs 4-Melfice (G2) - Healing offsets the damage easily

Heavy:

1-Surt (VP1) vs Fei Wong Fong (XG) - Brutal overkill, yay
Alfina de Pamela (G3) vs Eileen (S1) - STUN SPAM
Zalbard (SF2) vs Yuiri (S3) - Heal locks at worst
Ershin (BoF4) vs 4-Georg Prime (Suikos) - Yay storebought runes

Middle:

1-Albel Nox (SO3) vs Shion Uzuki (XSs)

1-Albel Nox (SO3[/b]) vs Shion Uzuki (XSs)- XS 3 might do it, but the ranked forms do not

Actually, XS3 is ranked - she's ranked as XSs, which is supposed to indicate multiple game appearances.  So, notes just so I can torture Super some more! 
- XS3 form has Phantom Fly, which decimates Albel - he can't even resist her best damage, as it's Beam element!  While she's below average speed in this form...
- XS3 form has a +30 speed armour she can use.  Awful defenses, but the speed is all that matters.  It sets her to 90 speed to a 61 average or so.  Even if you factor in all the speed boosters, that's still 90 to a 70 average.  Albel is above average running speed, but most people don't consider that, placing him as average.  Which means...
- Her XS2 form, if you allow Erde Kaiser (which is unique to her and something she has the EP for, unlike XS1...), demolishes him, as she's above average there.  Now...
- XS1 form probably loses - average speed, loses all her MP way to fast, and 25% instant death isn't much to rely on, particularly since, uh, Albel can block it

All that being said, Albel is sexier.  Match to him.

Gallows Caradine (WA3) vs Garr (BoF3) - Darkness/Time/Water medium hype?
Gen (Saga) vs Mio (G1) - Way too much durability.  3x, and I don't factor support in ever, so...down Gen goes.
Paula (EB) vs 3-Alma Beoulve (FFT) - Start: Dead = Auto-Loss

Light:

1-Gares (OB) vs Jogurt (SF1) - Gares uses his MF6 form and kills himself with Meteor
Kirkis (S1) vs Kahn (BoF4) - MF6 overkill
Maria Balthasar (XG) vs Innes (FE8) - Uh...Nidhogg doesn't even matter
Connie (S3) vs 4-Alonso (G3) - Survives a hit, Pale Gates, I think.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

How do storebought Runes help Georg against Ershin, OK? His magic affinities and his magic stat -fucking suck-. He doesn't get L4 charges, so he can't cast Silent Lake (he struggles to get one L3 charge. That's how bad it is), which would be his only hope here - Wind of Sleep is a lost cause against 50% subtractive status resistance (20% hit rate on base! That'll work), so would be Funeral Wind if he got a single L4 charge. The physical storebought runes make the damage average skyrocket, and Georg has very little twinking options (only one slot available), so his odds at getting a 2HKO against Ershin don't get all that much better, let alone a OHKO. So um.

[Dhyerwolf]

Ershin (BoF4) vs 4-Georg Prime (Suikos) - Yay storebought runes

Paula (EB) vs 3-Alma Beoulve (FFT) - Start: Dead = Auto-Loss

Connie (S3) vs 4-Alonso (G3) - Survives a hit, Pale Gates, I think.

Storebought Runes give Georg healing, and nothing else of note. He's still getting IDed and he can't stop it.

Ironically, Paula is so bad, Alma may just be able to go her first form and still win. That's a low Light slapfight, but at least gets around start-Dead!

Connie barely, barely avoids being OHKOed by an average physical. Needs you to take no SP and to allow Connie a non-storebought rare rune.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Lesalia Alma likely slaughters Paula by being able to change equips and safely 3HKOing her while  Mbarrier spamming. Paula is just that much of a pile of shit.

[James_xeno]

Godlike:

Xorn (G3) vs Rashidi (OB)
Rosa Harvey (FF4) vs Xenobia (Lunar:SSSC) - Does Rosa even have enough MP to win this??
Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Magus (CT)
Zio (PS4) vs Melfice (G2)


Heavy:

Surt (VP1) vs Fei Wong Fong (XG) - Counter Force and a 2HKO. Don't think Surt lives through 2 Yamikeis. He doesn't really have much physical defence. (I wouldn't call 200 RDM, for a boss at that point, good.) Counter Force means Fei wins this regardless.


Alfina de Pamela (G3) vs Eileen (S1)
Zalbard (SF2) vs Yuiri (S3)
Ershin (BoF4) vs Georg Prime (Suikos)


Middle:

Albel Nox (SO3) vs Shion Uzuki (XSs) - (XS3) I think.....
Gallows Caradine (WA3) vs Garr (BoF3)
Gen (Saga) vs Mio (G1)
Paula (EB) vs Alma Beoulve (FFT)


Light:

Gares (OB) vs Jogurt (SF1)
Kirkis (S1) vs Kahn (BoF4)
Maria Balthasar (XG) vs Innes (FE8)
Connie (S3) vs Alonso (G3)

[Bardiche]

Godlike:

1-Xorn (G3) vs Rashidi (OB) - Yay I can finally vote on this.
Rosa Harvey (FF4) vs Xenobia (Lunar:SSSC) - I think. Should proooooooobably check a stat topic to make sure.
Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Magus (CT) - SL lol

Heavy:

Alfina de Pamela (G3) vs Eileen (S1)
Ershin (BoF4) vs 4-Georg Prime (Suikos) - 2.2 durability? Yeah, okay.

Middle:

1-Albel Nox (SO3) vs Shion Uzuki (XSs) - Makes Albel rage over her PLOT, takes the win while he's distracted.
Gallows Caradine (WA3) vs Garr (BoF3)

Light:

1-Gares (OB) vs Jogurt (SF1) - Jogurt.
Kirkis (S1) vs Kahn (BoF4)
Maria Balthasar (XG) vs Innes (FE8)
Connie (S3) vs 4-Alonso (G3) - Not a Suikodog.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Heavy:

Surt (VP1) vs Fei Wong Fong (XG) - Counter Force

Counter Force is a -waste of a turn-. That thing does nothing against ITE, which Surt's offense is.

EDIT: The defense, however, is an actual point. This means Surt's evade actually matters here. Hmmmm.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Surt's defence is 100 points below average, which is barely noticeable (Loki is 3300 points above, by contrast, for an instance of the stat that actually matters). The fight is all about how much you respect Surt's 300000 HP.

[Magic Fanatic]

Even though I still think that Alma can win, Paula has a few points in her favor:

Alma is fast, but Ultima is SLOW.  Paula can probably get in a PSI Shield Alpha/Beta in before Alma finishes casting, cutting the damage she takes by half and (in case of Beta) makes Alma take 25% of the original damage of the spell.

The Stat topic's assumption of Thunder is outright wrong.  The accuracy of the spell is # of targets/4, making the effective accuracy of each shot 25% instead.  Also, Thunder comes with an innate ability of dispelling damage shields, so Alma loses the Protect/Shell from MBarrier when hit.

Alma has enough MP for 5 castings of MBarrier under the best of conditions, with an extra set of MP for one Ultima.

Paula's Shields, by definition, are permanent until they tank three spells or are dispelled.

Did I mention that Ultima is slow?  I can't really bring myself to to see the hype of a spell that takes two and a half to three turns to actually come out.  Paula could very easily throw a Freeze Omega or two at her while she's charging for a damage bonus, and still have enough time for her PSI Shield.  Nevermind if Freeze's solidify hits (25% chance per shot), which probably means that Alma's spell gets canceled, as she's forced to skip one turn.

Pray might actually have a use?  5/16 chance of 1/16 MHP recovery for Paula, 1/8 chance of 1/8 MHP recovery or a casting of Flash Alpha to both sides, and a 1/16 chance of each of the following:
Full HP Recovery (for Paula, anyway)
3-7 PP Recovery
Free casting of ST Rockin' Beta to a random enemy
Resistance-ignoring Sleep to both sides
Resistance-ignoring Brainshock to both sides
Casting of Defense Down alpha to both sides
Rainbow-colored Light (which is useless here)

...Why did I just type out all of Paula's Pray outcomes?  Anyway, just trying to say that this match really isn't as open-and-shut as everyone makes it out to be, I feel.

[superaielman]

*Blinks* Dude, Ultima's the speed of a Fire 3 and spells of that ilk. It's more or less instant in the DL, with the way FFT CT works.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Also, I have to note that, if you allow endgame Alma to switch equips -at all-, the match is a complete and utter slaughter, since she just outslugs Paula with staff thwacks instead of wasting time casting spells. So yes, it -is- as open-shut as it sounds, because Paula is just -that bad-. A worse Nina3 is not something a dueller should ever aspire to be, but Paula pulls it off.

EDIT: It's essentially the reason why Lesalia Alma beats Paula, really.

[Magic Fanatic]

...Oh, wait.  Misread the BMG - for some reason, I thought CTR was the CT gained, not the amount of CT to resolution.

Nevermind, I'm stupid and misinterpret things easily.

Still, Ultima has a CTR of 5, and Paula is close to average speed (below by like...  .25 points to an average of 61.25 according to PD's numbers).  She can still sneak in a casting of PSI Shield before Ultima resolves.

Alma still wins, because Haste -> Staff Thwacks is a viable strategy for her, apparently.

[Dhyerwolf]

Ultima ignores Reflect anyways, so it then becomes which spells trumps the other. Granted, I don't allow final Alma to change equips, but I also see the spell with the proof of going around Reflect being the trump.

[Magic Fanatic]

Well, at the very least, there's still PSI Shield Alpha - even if it's not reflected damage, it's still a 50% reduction to what's coming in.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

And Paula does -what- with that damage reduction? She has issues hitting Alma with her own magic - and Paula is stuck with a middling 4HKO for her offense. She is five-rounding Alma in practice before factoring in Mbarrier cheese and Alma at worst three-rounds (and that's -after Shield-) Paula while being faster.

EDIT: Also wow I completely forgot about Ultima owning Reflect. Yeah that's bad.

[Magic Fanatic]

Middle:

Gallows Caradine (WA3) vs Garr (BoF3) - Garr is terribad.
Paula (EB) vs Alma Beoulve (FFT) - Character from a game I don't actually respect that much beating a character from a game that has my Positive Nostalgia rooting for it, much to my chagrin.  It happens, but it still doesn't make me hate it any less.

Light:

Gares (OB) vs Jogurt (SF1)

[Talaysen]

Ultima is 5 CT?  I don't see how that's even close to instant since it's like half a turn.

[SnowFire]

Godlike:

1-Xorn (G3) vs Rashidi (OB)
Rosa Harvey (FF4) vs Xenobia (Lunar:SSSC) - Meh at mathing this out, but I suspect Rosa's healing is cheap enough when single-targeted to not have to use Cure4 and the like.  Xenobia likes that I cap turn-based speed at 80% / 120% so Rosa isn't getting the doubles very often, though.
Chris Lightfellow (S3) vs Magus (CT)

Heavy:

1-Surt (VP1) vs Fei Wong Fong (XG) - A Low Heavy matchup for me!  (No Yamikei but Surt is no great shakes.)
Alfina de Pamela (G3) vs Eileen (S1)

Middle:

1-Albel Nox (SO3) vs Shion Uzuki (XSs) - XS3 cheeze.
Gen (Saga) vs Mio (G1) - No Saga, but I'll just note that I suspect I'd be voting Mio since her HP isn't THAT pathetic.  It's a 3 person party you have and you can't entirely spam the best damage moves, so the damage average falls some along with the support credit.  (Okay, that's kinda untrue, G1 items are cheaty face and can restore all your SP, but I don't think they're storebought and I'll throw G1 bosses a minor bone.)

Light:

1-Gares (OB) vs Jogurt (SF1)
Maria Balthasar (XG) vs Innes (FE8)
Connie (S3) vs 4-Alonso (G3)

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Gen (Saga) vs Mio (G1) - No Saga, but I'll just note that I suspect I'd be voting Mio since her HP isn't THAT pathetic.  It's a 3 person party you have and you can't entirely spam the best damage moves, so the damage average falls some along with the support credit.  (Okay, that's kinda untrue, G1 items are cheaty face and can restore all your SP, but I don't think they're storebought and I'll throw G1 bosses a minor bone.)

Okay, I feel like chiming in a few things here. First, I'll have to note Mio gets 4HKOed -in-game- by Dhyer's average damage (which he noted he toned down for factoring in MT/resources shenanigans). A boss getting 4HKOed by average damage in Grandia 1 isn't appreciably better than a boss being 2HKOed by Raquel in WA4 in strict durability terms (Raquel being roughly 2x average damage, more or less) if better at all - this means you're getting one-rounded without effort in just about any RPG. G1 is even sketchier than usual to give support credit for because MT damage is so widespread. I'd also hesitate on factoring in resource issues in a game where they're as utterly trivial as G1's. Most of the options that are better than 2PB aren't much below the 2PB/OPB options and what's strong or not also kinda depends on what you've been using anyway.

EDIT: Also, hmmm. Having played a fair deal of XS3, I have to ask - does Shion actually win -that- fight? She's below average speed first turn, and, as far as I know, has little recourse against confusion. I thought Albel's confusion status was turn one? That'd put the ball in his court pretty decisively regardless.

[Tide]

Tal: Ultima's 5 CTR, yes. This makes it around as fast as something like Fire. Just checked the BMG. I thought you meant 5 CT as in it gets 5 CT a clocktick, which made me really confused as that would put it on par with Meteor for speed.


Godlike:
Sucks

Heavy:
Surt (VP1) vs Fei Wong Fong (XG) - I kneejerk Surt being able to live past Fei's initial barrage. This match is pretty solid, all things considered.


Middle:
Albel Nox (SO3) vs Shion Uzuki (XSs) - Dear OK, I hope you are happy at the fact that you've just given Shion another vote ;_;. You monster. Love, Tide.
Paula (EB) vs Alma Beoulve (FFT) - Don't see what the big fuss is, since this is pretty clear cut. After M-Barrier, Paula would be lucky to make any damage stick (ew that damage against Hasted+Regen?). If you're holding her to her equips at the final battle, Paula's best course of action may be just to drain MP. Too bad for her that the PP drain sucks. Any other thing she does is pretty much useless (PSI Thunder is a terrible choice even if it destroys barriers on hit) and only delays the inevitable.

Light:
Maria Balthasar (XG) vs Innes (FE8) - lol