Author Topic: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.  (Read 16914 times)

NotMiki

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #125 on: July 01, 2012, 07:39:34 PM »
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3460_162-57464549/roberts-switched-views-to-uphold-health-care-law/

CBS claims Roberts changed his vote on ACA.  Usually the court is very, very tight about leaks, so this is a remarkable level of detail about court deliberations.  It also explains why starting in March or so George Will and other conservative columnists launched a full-court press, accusing liberal commentators of trying to strongarm Roberts.  (I hope the irony was not lost on said conservative commentators that they were doing exactly the same thing.  I hope it stings that the liberals were apparently better at it.)

Also: this

Quote
I think I figured out what happened. Randy Barnett made a wish on a cursed monkey’s paw that his commerce clause argument would be accepted. It explains everything, no?
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Dunefar

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #126 on: July 03, 2012, 05:37:39 AM »
I'm still surprised that the ACA got through, let alone that possible court maneuvering leaked.
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superaielman

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #127 on: July 21, 2012, 01:42:00 PM »
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/310104/drug-war-recedes-rich-lowry


NR is pretty staunchly anti drug war. I pretty much agree completely with Lowry here. The shift with figures from both parties being critical of the drug war is a good thing, and hopefully helps push things further down the legalization path. For all of his flaws, Christie has a fair bit of influence and anyone with that speaking up against the insanity of our drug laws is a good thing.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2012, 01:52:40 PM by superaielman »
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Pyro

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #128 on: July 21, 2012, 04:03:23 PM »
That is very unusual for the National Review, which usually tows the evil/stupid side of the line on just about every issue.

Dunefar

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #129 on: August 11, 2012, 05:21:49 PM »
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-declares-paul-ryan-the-intellectual-leader-of-the-gop-20120811,0,35529.story

Romney has picked his VP. Paul Ryan's a fascinating choice and shines light into what the Romney campaign thinks is the key to winning in November. He's not from the coasts to try and shore that up or from the south to strengthen swing states. He's young, from the Midwest and has strong ties to the right wing. Feels like he's hoping to rile up the right while the left is limpid after four years of Obama.
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Pyro

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #130 on: August 11, 2012, 07:00:35 PM »
Mitt Romney was pretty much beaten into picking Paul Ryan as his running mate by the Conservatives in his party. He can't energize his base to vote for him, so he picked a very conservative person to be his running mate. And Paul Ryan is VERY conservative, with basically a plan to cut Medicare (while privatizing it), Medicaid, Food Stamps, Department of Energy initiatives, Rich folks' tax rates and middle-class deductions... the whole gamut of Right-wing fantasies.

Romney is now inexorably tied to Paul Ryan's vision of government. While this will make die-hard conservatives happy, it WILL energize the hell out of liberals and probably turn off moderates/independents. Normally a candidate moderates themselves in the general election for a reason. Romney is doing the opposite, with the added liability of selecting someone who wants to gut the sacred cow that is Medicare.

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #131 on: August 11, 2012, 07:09:11 PM »
Issue being there aren't really any republicans more moderate than Romney to start with.
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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #132 on: August 12, 2012, 12:05:27 AM »
It's a fine pick by me.  Let's have an election on the merits of policy, and this puts that into play.  I think the Democrats should win that fight, of course, but think it's healthy that Romney is picking that fight.  Ryan also passes the "can plausibly be seen as President" test which a certain governor from Alaska didn't.  (And there'd be a certain crassness in picking, say, Marco Rubio for the spot - it'd be weird if something happened to Romney for the President to be a Senator with just 2 years of experience who got the job by virtue of being from a swing state & possibly a reach-out attempt to Hispanics.  If you're about to bring up Obama, I'd like to point out that he *actually ran* for prez in 2008, so in the alternate universe where Clinton got the nom then picked Obama as veep, that'd be rather different.)

Anyway, this should be interesting.  Conventional wisdom is that this might hurt Romney with seniors who've been trending strongly anti-Obama before since Medicare scare tactics are now far more in play, but dunno.  Florida & Ohio have a lot of seniors, but Virginia & Colorado don't, and all 4 states have some pretty conservative Republicans who may be more fired up now to help compensate any drop in support from seniors.  So seems knee-jerk that it might plausibly help Romney out some.

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #133 on: August 12, 2012, 10:29:19 AM »
Don't think picking someone with a strong chance to alienate swing voters in trade for more solidly conforming voters who at worst would have stayed at home (and probably would have already grudgingly voted for you) is really much of a winning trade.
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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #134 on: August 12, 2012, 03:03:40 PM »
If you take the cynical approach to this election being the more moderate Republicans giving the harder right enough rope to hang themselves then the choice does seem to align.  If that is a concept you are willing to float anyway.
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metroid composite

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #135 on: August 13, 2012, 09:21:17 AM »
Mitt Romney was pretty much beaten into picking Paul Ryan as his running mate by the Conservatives in his party. He can't energize his base to vote for him, so he picked a very conservative person to be his running mate. And Paul Ryan is VERY conservative, with basically a plan to cut Medicare (while privatizing it), Medicaid, Food Stamps, Department of Energy initiatives, Rich folks' tax rates and middle-class deductions... the whole gamut of Right-wing fantasies.

Romney is now inexorably tied to Paul Ryan's vision of government. While this will make die-hard conservatives happy, it WILL energize the hell out of liberals and probably turn off moderates/independents. Normally a candidate moderates themselves in the general election for a reason. Romney is doing the opposite, with the added liability of selecting someone who wants to gut the sacred cow that is Medicare.

Sounds a lot like the Palin situation (where, by all accounts McCain didn't actually want to pick Palin, but was pressured into doing so by the party, who in turn was feeling pressure from conservative bloggers).

Which makes it twice now that one of the most moderate candidates gets selected in the Republican primaries, and then the party pressures them into picking a far right VP, disregarding the primary voter's desire for a moderate candidate.



That said, his policies (at least as described in this topic) sound a lot more palatable and interesting than Palin's.  Someone actually taking a stance against Medicare and being selected as VP is pretty cool.

SnowFire

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #136 on: August 13, 2012, 02:48:42 PM »
The Palin pick is a little more complicated than that.  What is true is that it seems very likely McCain wanted to pick Joe Lieberman as his vice president - see the "Country First" slogan he rolled out at the time (which would have been a great slogan for a Republican - Moderate Dem ticket).  They were maverick independent buddies in the Senate.  The problem is that Lieberman, and Tom Ridge (also considered), are Pro-Choice.  Some of the hardcore pro-life no compromises types came up and told McCain that in no uncertain terms he'd lose their support if he took the path.  They told the *media* too just to lock in the choice and make it hard to ninja a pick past.

So Palin wasn't McCain's first pick.  That said, that doesn't mean McCain didn't want to pick Palin; given he had to pick someone pro-life, Palin was described as "high risk, high reward" which was 100% up McCain's alley and to some extent a rational kind of pick when you're behind.  At the time of the veep nod, Palin wasn't widely considered "far right" either, but actually having a slight tinge of moderate libertarianism from her time as Governor.  (Flash a national spotlight on her, though, and she started spewing random conservative platitudes.)

NotMiki

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #137 on: August 13, 2012, 04:59:50 PM »
Interesting note that I doubt will make much difference: neither Romney nor Paul have any foreign policy bonafides, unless you count running the Olympics.  I doubt that's something on peoples' mind, and Romney doesn't strike me as the type to blow up the planet, but he's hardly inspired confidence thusfar.
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superaielman

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #138 on: August 13, 2012, 09:41:02 PM »
Who is the last president who had a foreign policy background, Bush I? American citizens seem to consider that a non issue.
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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #139 on: August 14, 2012, 05:13:53 PM »
Super and I have talked about this already, but it's kind of funny that the one line of attack the Democrats have kept trying on Romney without any real success has been linking him to Ryan's budgetary policies - his reputation as a moderate kind of blocks that off. And now he's done it for them.
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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #140 on: August 21, 2012, 03:21:49 PM »
The coverage granted to neo-Nazi revivals as a national and international issue is both disturbing and upsetting. I can only imagine if more crimes tagged with recent-Marine dropouts and German youth came to the attention of people who are emotionally depressed and willing to begin their own protective measures. War, poverty and a tempestuous economy will seem to liken this situation more closely to the 60s or late 1800s than anything else.

The documentation of their recruiting processes are also frightening. I wonder how many Obama is a Muslim's'll join ranks just because.




Dunefar

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #141 on: August 30, 2012, 11:00:37 PM »
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444914904577619383218788846.html

So the gold standard is actually becoming a point. I don't have the economic chops to fully appreciate what returning to the gold standard would do to the economy. Can anyone enlighten me?
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SnowFire

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #142 on: August 31, 2012, 06:15:48 PM »
Returning to the gold standard isn't going to happen, and it's a bad idea anyway.  Returning to the gold standard basically means giving up on the idea of monetary policy - that is, adjusting the currency supply to change the economy.  It's actually rather more brave than that: rather than no monetary policy under the gold standard (how it's sometimes portrayed by adherents), the gold standard has uncontrolled monetary policy instead, where the supply of currency will fluctuate not based on what the Federal Reserve does, but via whether new gold deposits are found in Africa and how cheap the rights are.

Basically, the advantage to the gold standard is that it theoretically stops psychotic governments from shooting themselves in the foot with hyper-inflation.  I say theoretically because they can just quietly weaken the gold standard instead - from AD 100 - 400 or so, watch the percentage of gold in Roman coins steadily decrease, for example.  (Which was not all bad, that was how one did monetary policy in the old days.)  The disadvantage is that you have to think that monetary policy is *powerless* rather than "bad," because the money supply is now (theoretically) uncontrolled by anyone and will just wander whatever direction it wants, even if said direction is inconvenient.  And of course if monetary policy is powerless, then there's no particular difference between gold & fiat currency anyway.

(The value of the dollar had just slid to below 1/1,200th of an ounce of gold; it has since plunged to below 1/1,600th of an ounce.)

Funniest line of the article, FWIW.  This means that gold has become relatively more dear.  Buy gold then?  Have a cookie.  But plenty of other products have become cheaper, so does this say anything about the "plunging" dollar?  If only there was some way of measuring this that combined food, oil, technology, etc...  oh wait there is.  Purchasing power parity or one of the many other methods we have of measuring inflation all say that inflation has not been an issue in the past 20 years or so.

At its heart, the appeal of the gold standard is based on an irrational totemism of "sound money" as that article exemplifies.  What the hell is sound money?  Does it mean non-inflationary money?  Does it merely mean valuable money?  We could pull the trick that various nations caught in hyper-inflation do and just shave a 0 off everything if that's the goal.  Wow, a dollar is now worth ten times as much.  Money is an abstract medium of exchange whose value is inherently tied to the rest of the economy around it.  A million dollars on a desert island will do you no good.  Ergo it should be treated as such, and not as some physical good with inherent value.  (For all that in antiquity, obviously using gold had its own advantages in terms of portability between countries in an era before foreign exchange markets.)

--
Also, looking up: Pretty much the only way to get foreign policy *experience* is to be vice president.  Which many presidents have done, in fairness.  Just being a politician hopefully implies a certain level of international competence & awareness.  Clinton may have "only" been Governor of Arkansas and he was hit for lack of foreign policy chops by Bush in 92, but he was a Rhodes Scholar who spent time in the UK and kept abreast of international politics.  Unlike a certain Alaska governor.

Pyro

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #143 on: September 01, 2012, 12:49:24 AM »
Form a left winger
"there’s ... a pretty clear (and economically understandable) relationship between the real price of gold and the real interest rate: when real rates are low, real gold prices are high.

And when are real rates low? High inflation can do that, as it did in the late 1970s; but so can a severe economic slump due to a deleveraging shock, as in recent years.

What does that tell us about how a gold standard would work? Faced with the kind of shock we’ve just experienced, the real price of gold would “want” to rise. But under a gold standard, the nominal price of gold would be fixed, so the only way that could happen would be through a fall in the general price level: deflation.

So if we’d had a gold standard operating in this crisis, there would have been powerful deflationary forces at work; not exactly what the doctor ordered.

Now, the gold bugs will no doubt reply that under a gold standard big bubbles couldn’t happen, and therefore there wouldn’t be major financial crises. And it’s true: under the gold standard America had no major financial panics other than in 1873, 1884, 1890, 1893, 1907, 1930, 1931, 1932, and 1933. Oh, wait.

The truth is that returning to gold is an almost comically (and cosmically) bad idea."

From another source:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/08/why-the-gold-standard-is-the-worlds-worst-economic-idea-in-2-charts/261552/

SnowFire

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #144 on: September 01, 2012, 12:55:19 AM »
In fairness, the problem in 1930-1933 was not the gold standard, but rather the Federal Reserve doing exactly the opposite of what it should have done and implementing deflationary policies.  (Which is what is being decried.)

Of course, some people are whining about the Fed "printing money" these days.  While hilariously enough I would actually agree as far as 2003-2006 (the Fed should have realized that fiscal policy was hugely expansionary and tried to rein in things more), if anything they haven't done enough "printing money," since as noted inflation has been steady in the 1-2% range (which is...  where you want it, deflation is bad enough it's better to aim for a little bit of inflation in case things don't go as forecasted.)

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #145 on: September 01, 2012, 07:27:10 AM »
Actually, the big problem I see with going back on the gold standard is less the instability of prices, and more that...

The way the gold standard is SUPPOSED to work is that you can "cash out" your dollar bills; you can go to the federal reserve, and say "I have 20 dollars here, I would like to exchange these for 20 ounces of gold".  Historically this meant that the government kept a large vault of gold, so that if people wanted to "cash out" their dollar bills, the government could indeed provide the gold.

Try to imagine this: we're in the middle of a recession, and the government decides now would be the best time to use taxpayer money to buy millions and millions of bars of gold to stick in a vault where they will be doing precisely nothing.  Yes, whenever the gold standard gets repealed, we can just sell everything in the vault--it's not irreversible damage.  But it does mean life under the gold standard just flat out will be a noticeable drop from current standards of living.

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #146 on: September 13, 2012, 10:57:50 AM »
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/12/with-attacks-in-middle-east-campaign-turns-to-foreign-policy/

Quote
"It's disgraceful that the Obama Administration's first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks," Romney wrote, an apparent reference to a statement from the U.S. Embassy in Cairo that denounced the anti-Islam film that is the source of the protesters' anger. The embassy's statement was released before protesters stormed the American embassy in Cairo on Tuesday.

So basically, while the attack was going on, the Romney campaign immediately painted the Obama Administration as being sympathetic to the perpetrators of an attack based off a statement made before the attack happened.

Be more of an idiotic tone-deaf political caricature, Romney, pls.


superaielman

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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #147 on: October 25, 2012, 12:56:23 PM »
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/plan-for-hunting-terrorists-signals-us-intends-to-keep-adding-names-to-kill-lists/2012/10/23/4789b2ae-18b3-11e2-a55c-39408fbe6a4b_story.html


This is pretty concerning to me. The article hits on some concerns I've had of late- turning our intellegence services into a paramilitary outfit, the legality of drone strikes- and does so in a very well researched manner.
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Re: Politics '12: Election year shenanigans.
« Reply #149 on: November 05, 2012, 04:55:40 PM »
Tomorrow is Election Day, so make sure to go vote!
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