FE9 weakness is double might, not double damage, which tops out at +8 damage for a maxed forged fire tome (FE10 is triple, so +16 damage if you'd rather use that... don't think it matters). So yeah, OHKO isn't happening. Soren also has below average evade against Volug's above average hit (assuming your views on shifting) so I really doubt any dodging is happening there, and Savage is 35% against Adept's 27%, so yeah I actually am not sure how Volug loses if you let him start shifted.
Halfshift Volug on the other hand should lose due to not doubling, and still being 2HKOed (even more solidly, in fact), meaning that the counter plus the normal attack kills. And yeah, fire is quite accurate so evade hype is out.
Godlike
Caineghis (10) vs Naesala (10): Like against Nailah, Naesala doubles, and wins if Tear goes off. Granted, he's also 2HKOed this time, so he has less time to get the mastery he needs if I take a dim view of those. Not sure how I feel about that today. Um, screw this, let's Hatbot it. Hatbot says Cain goes first and activates Roar right away. Well, fair enough! I'll change this if anyone wants to actually argue me on it.
Ashera (10) vs Athos (7)
Heavy
Roy (6) vs Ephraim (8): uhhh
Eirika (8) vs Elincia (10): Both 2HKO each other, but Eirika's evasion is more decisive than Stun, which needs to make a hit check first to even be considered. Elincia's only above average hit with her authority stars considered, which to be fair I do give her, but even then she misses over a third of the time and that's not cutting it when she needs 4 hits (or a stun). Assuming Eirika has 40% evasion and Elincia has 26% Stun, Eirika wins ~73% of the time if Elincia is forced to attack first, and ~47% of the time if Eirika is forced to attack first. You can quibble with those numbers of course... but since I give less respect to flaky skill activations, I think it ends up pretty clear for me.
Middle
Colm (8) vs Oswin (7): Oswin is 7 below average hit, so 8 above after weapon triangle. Colm has coinflippy evade roughly, we'll assume just below here, and gets twice as many attacks in to start with. Colm does pretty much need to get ID and Oswin probably kills on the third attack (maybe fourth?), so.. yeah sure, disrespecting crits enough for that.
Micaiah (10) vs Oscar (9): Well uh unless someone wants to argue me on Colm vs. Oswin I think Micaiah just won Middle. tra la la Thani.
Light
Gilliam (8) vs Sanaki (10): So Gilliam is doubled by a magic user, that is some pretty fireworks.
Soren (9) vs Volug (10): 2HKOs first due to counters, see above.