RPGDL 2012 Season 1, Week 3: Cid/Cid OTP

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Ashera (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Mewtwo (Pokémon Series)
Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI)
Cidolfas Orlandu (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Cid Raines (Final Fantasy XIII)
Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Apocrypha (Radiant Historia)

Heavy

Galcian (Skies of Arcadia) vs Wakka (Final Fantasy X)
Legretta (Tales of the Abyss) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
Chie Satonaka (Persona 4) vs Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millenium)
Cthulhu (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Elincia (Fire Emblem Series)

Middle


Dekar (Lufia II: Rise of the Sinistrals) vs Ashton Anchors (Star Ocean: The Second Story)
Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Nina (Breath of Fire: Dragon Quarter)
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Syphide (Valkyrie Profile: Silmeria)
Sara (Breath of Fire) vs Warlock (Suikoden IV)

Light

Sazh Katzroy (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Kahn (Breath of Fire IV)
Piccolo (Suikoden III) vs Mia Ausa (Lunar: Silver Star Story Complete)
Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI) vs Nina Wyndia (Breath of Fire III)
Elena (Final Fantasy VII) vs Tricia (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters)

[SnowFire]

Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI)
For all that Lulu & Terra have roughly similar damage and my hopes of a different outcome aren't huge.  Usual reminder that the damage averages in-game are higher than the stat topic, since you can mix & match damage skills across classes, formation arts boost physical damage, Sacred Slayer OC gives you more good damage turns rather than dagger-thwacking, various other broken stuff.
Cidolfas Orlandu (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Cid Raines (Final Fantasy XIII)
What a weird match.  TG Cid is the type of "fair" PC that can theoretically win over FF13 Cid with the draining, and I do think Drain Sword through Protect can keep him afloat through Cid's long combo (I don't think I let him spam it - maybe every other turn).  The problem is that Deprotect, and maybe Daze.  I think TG Cid wins *if* Cid's HP is seen as high enough - he might do better against unscaled Cid, so I might just Cid force FF13 Cid into a "better" interp.  Since the ideal circumstance is to stagger Cid at around 62% PCHP -> juggle him in midair with a big damage bonus, who cares that his HP is way better.  Of course that's giving non-FF13 PC credit for Launch / holding it against FF13 bosses.

Heavy

Galcian (Skies of Arcadia) vs Wakka (Final Fantasy X)
Legretta (Tales of the Abyss) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
Cthulhu (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Elincia (Fire Emblem Series)
Counters ruin Cthuluhu's day even if Elincia isn't seen as doubling.  Stun is not good for a drain strategy anyway.  EDIT: Okay so Cthulhu has a OHKO strategy too.  Abstain, then.

Middle

Dekar (Lufia II: Rise of the Sinistrals) vs Ashton Anchors (Star Ocean: The Second Story)

Light

Piccolo (Suikoden III) vs Mia Ausa (Lunar: Silver Star Story Complete)

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike

Ashera (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Mewtwo (Pokémon Series): EDIT: whoops, see below. An easy win if Psychic had more PP, but so it goes.
Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI): Black Corrosion means no Drain stall, he has a 3-2, and gets at least one pretty competent Energy Drain off. It's enough.
Cidolfas Orlandu (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Cid Raines (Final Fantasy XIII): Good fight. If Orlandu can sneak in a double he can punch past most of the limit range... unless I see the transformation as more of a counter, which... I don't know. The limit range does annoying things to Night Sword stalling but Orlandu can punch him low enough first he has a shot to finish, although he will probably need to do that with at least one Night Sword to withstand Raines' attack. I dunno. Probably will vote Raines since I think the average of assumptions favours him but I'll chew on this one some more. EDIT: While Orlandu may be able to pull off some theoretical monkeying to win, I have a hard time seeing a good route that works.
Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Apocrypha (Radiant Historia): Stone Memory and stuff. At least this will be spoiled next round!

Heavy

Legretta (Tales of the Abyss) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time): Nel can resist fire, so it's entirely a matter of whether I see her punching past the <25% phase. Nel has near-infinite healing and perfect damage control, so... probably? She may be heal-locked even through fire resistance, though, I suppose... hmm. EDIT: Yeah probably.
Cthulhu (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Elincia (Fire Emblem Series): When in doubt, trust Random. Cthulhu OHKO hype seems less likely than Elincia turn 1 dodge hype anyway.

Middle

Dekar (Lufia II: Rise of the Sinistrals) vs Ashton Anchors (Star Ocean: The Second Story): Dekar should be able to tank through the likes of Ashton.
Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Nina (Breath of Fire: Dragon Quarter): Hope can resist Death somewhat... Haste/Veil, Shell/whatever, smash well enough from there, I think.
Sara (Breath of Fire) vs Warlock (Suikoden IV): Sara being faster and having an ITE 3HKO (=2HKO against Warlock) spares me from having to decide if Warlock's monstrous damage 2HKOs Sara. I don't think it does anyway.

Light

Sazh Katzroy (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Kahn (Breath of Fire IV): Kahn back-ending his damage somewhat is good news for Sazh, who can open with Haste/Protect and then try to outslug? Well, hmm. Kahn should just attack first, and then wins with three more actions (focus punch, another attack, even against Protect). Sazh gives up his first turn but is faster thereafter, so gets three turns to kill... yeah I don't think that's happening.
Piccolo (Suikoden III) vs Mia Ausa (Lunar: Silver Star Story Complete): Mia resists lightning with her speed setup, which I imagine is probably game.
Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI) vs Nina Wyndia (Breath of Fire III): Still not voting on this.

[Random Consonant]

Godlike

Ashera (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Mewtwo (Pokémon Series) - Mmm sure.
Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Apocrypha (Radiant Historia) - Stone Memory, sure.

Heavy

Cthulhu (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Elincia (Fire Emblem Series) - Cthulhu wants the Cursed Sword to try to straight up OHKO here, actually, since he's getting the first hit in regardless.  Trying another approach just gets him countered and that leads to Stun proccing and oh dear and yeah he can't afford to stall the match out.  SO!  Cursed Sword Dark Strike is about 87.8% PCHP damage taking the auto-insanity into account and Lv*/*/19 Elincia's physical durability is a smidge lower than that, to say nothing of */*/10 Elincia's which is surely lower.  Thaaaat said, I do lean more towards equal EXP figures for FE10, and those numbers put Cthulhu's odds of taking this on the first turn under 50% thanks to Elincia being a pro at the whole dodging thing.  Well then.  Equal level Elincia likely loses this, however.

Middle

Dekar (Lufia II: Rise of the Sinistrals) vs Ashton Anchors (Star Ocean: The Second Story) - Sure, tanks through.

Light

Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI) vs Nina Wyndia (Breath of Fire III) - uh

[Yoshiken]

Ashera (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Mewtwo (Pokémon Series) - Oh, hmm. My initial thought was "Mewtwo doesn't have MT, he'll lose this", but I suppose one turn of Amnesia lets him do ridiculous things, doesn't it? Fair enough~ I guess PP swings things here. I don't really see Mewtwo surviving without either Amnesia or Barrier - he probably wants to drop Barrier more, but he's still taking way too long to kill here.

Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Syphide (Valkyrie Profile: Silmeria) - Urk. Weird match. Sylphide's HP is low, but her Resist is high, working out to about average MDur, but only about 0.85 on the PDur. An Agidyne from Yukiko does about 57% HP to Sylphide's MDur, and about 36% from a physical crit (which she can quite comfortably stall out too). This is.. just enough to outrace the healing, and that's without taking into account Sylphide's extra 10% from Fire, which pushes it to 64%, making a crit -> Agidyne just about fatal (and if you see variance making that not always fatal, she can easily keep healing past Sylphide's attacks until she lands another crit.) Nice.

[Luther Lansfeld]

Godlike

Ashera (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Mewtwo (Pokémon Series)- Yay!.
Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI)- Gives Terra lung cancer.
Cidolfas Orlandu (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Cid Raines (Final Fantasy XIII)- Not too much Cid HP respect.
Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Apocrypha (Radiant Historia)- Final boss d-d-duel!

Heavy

Galcian (Skies of Arcadia) vs Wakka (Final Fantasy X)
Legretta (Tales of the Abyss) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
Chie Satonaka (Persona 4) vs Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millenium)
Cthulhu (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Elincia (Fire Emblem Series)

Middle


Dekar (Lufia II: Rise of the Sinistrals) vs Ashton Anchors (Star Ocean: The Second Story)
Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Nina (Breath of Fire: Dragon Quarter)- Unsure. My longstanding struggle with the issue of accessories.
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Syphide (Valkyrie Profile: Silmeria)
Sara (Breath of Fire) vs Warlock (Suikoden IV)

Light

Sazh Katzroy (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Kahn (Breath of Fire IV)
Piccolo (Suikoden III) vs Mia Ausa (Lunar: Silver Star Story Complete)- Fuck you, Mia.
Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI) vs Nina Wyndia (Breath of Fire III)- An embarassment to matches.
Elena (Final Fantasy VII) vs Tricia (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters)

[superaielman]

Godlike

Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI)- No clue.
Cidolfas Orlandu (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Cid Raines (Final Fantasy XIII)- Think the Aegis shield slows down Raines debuff game enough.


Heavy

Galcian (Skies of Arcadia) vs Wakka (Final Fantasy X)- Eternum.
Chie Satonaka (Persona 4) vs Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millenium)- Negatis. I'll change my vote if Chie can block ID.

Middle


Dekar (Lufia II: Rise of the Sinistrals) vs Ashton Anchors (Star Ocean: The Second Story)- Dekar is tanky.
Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Nina (Breath of Fire: Dragon Quarter)- Ugh. Massively reduced death vs Hope offense. There are no winners here.
Sara (Breath of Fire) vs Warlock (Suikoden IV)

Light

Sazh Katzroy (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Kahn (Breath of Fire IV)
Piccolo (Suikoden III) vs Mia Ausa (Lunar: Silver Star Story Complete)
Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI) vs Nina Wyndia (Breath of Fire III)
Elena (Final Fantasy VII) vs Tricia (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters)- Charm is out and I have negative respect for Elena as a slugger otherwise.

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike

Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI)
Cidolfas Orlandu (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Cid Raines (Final Fantasy XIII)- People who are giving FF 13 Cid far more credit than me are unsure, so this seems about right.

Heavy

Galcian (Skies of Arcadia) vs Wakka (Final Fantasy X)
Legretta (Tales of the Abyss) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)- Still can generally do more than 50% with combos even with Fire halved, right?
Chie Satonaka (Persona 4) vs Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millenium)- Chie is faster, so it depends on if Rune can take a God Hand+a Basic Physical, or if I see the P4 damage average above 260. My gut is 237 (Average+Soji with best magic damage; no temporary outwaitable boosts factored in)

Middle


Dekar (Lufia II: Rise of the Sinistrals) vs Ashton Anchors (Star Ocean: The Second Story)
Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Nina (Breath of Fire: Dragon Quarter)- Halving Hope's magic=has the time for ID to hit.
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Syphide (Valkyrie Profile: Silmeria)
Sara (Breath of Fire) vs Warlock (Suikoden IV)- Warlock has the damage, but yeah, ITE physical is the exact damage type he hates

Light

Sazh Katzroy (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Kahn (Breath of Fire IV)
Piccolo (Suikoden III) vs Mia Ausa (Lunar: Silver Star Story Complete)- Hmm, not so close. Mia can halve his damage, and does half his damage at her base to compensate. After Mdef adjustments, she does 32% to him. Piccolo halved still does 40% with best and 36% with second best. So...he 3HKOs to her 4HKO.
Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI) vs Nina Wyndia (Breath of Fire III)
Elena (Final Fantasy VII) vs Tricia (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters)- Tricia loses 30% damage or so here, and takes an extra 60%...to Elena base 20%. Tricia will probably be borderline 3HKOed, but solid chance to evade 1 attack, so that might be 4. It's also three counters. Elena is eating 6 attacks and a Nova Storm. Tricia is not against short range fighters, but can deal with one that deal 20% damage with no other tricks.

[dude789]

Godlike

Ashera (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Mewtwo (Pokémon Series) I give her the auras. There are 9 targets all together that Mewtwo has to take out and Mewtwo has 10 shots of Psychic. Ashera herself has great evasion and the auras have noticeable evasion. I think he ends up missing twice and that's that. 
Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI)
Cidolfas Orlandu (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Cid Raines (Final Fantasy XIII)

Heavy

Legretta (Tales of the Abyss) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
Chie Satonaka (Persona 4) vs Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millenium)
Cthulhu (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Elincia (Fire Emblem Series)

Middle

Dekar (Lufia II: Rise of the Sinistrals) vs Ashton Anchors (Star Ocean: The Second Story)
Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Nina (Breath of Fire: Dragon Quarter)

Light

Sazh Katzroy (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Kahn (Breath of Fire IV)
Piccolo (Suikoden III) vs Mia Ausa (Lunar: Silver Star Story Complete)
Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI) vs Nina Wyndia (Breath of Fire III)
Elena (Final Fantasy VII) vs Tricia (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters)

[Dark Holy Elf]

Oh, great point about Psychic's PP limit and evade. Mewtwo does have Swift (which is ITE, though quite weak) to try to close the deal but that match actually deserves more thinking about now.

[dude789]

Moveslots are also a problem for him. If he wants Swift or another attacking move he has to give up Barrier, Amnesia, or Recover.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Hmm, yeah. Without Barrier he gets 2HKOed, without Recover he has no chance. His only slim chance is to go without Amnesia but that's rough. ... in fact, by my scaling anyway, due to Ashera's critical immunity, no Amnesia means he misses the OHKO with Psychic on the magic-weak auras. His best shot is to kill with them with one Swift and one Psychic, and the physical-weaks with three Swifts, and then kill Ashera with five Swifts? Yeah, he has the raw PP for that, but between Auroras (which do like 25%), counters, and the fact that Ashera 3HKOs him forever with her own damage (=2HKO with an Aurora in there)... yeah, this is a vote change.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Godlike

Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI) - Same deal. Terra can't OHKO, badly needs to unless she wants to eat a horrible drain death. Misery and Silence are bad news too.
Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Apocrypha (Radiant Historia) - Nice supervillain stone statues.

Heavy

Legretta (Tales of the Abyss) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time) - Nel hitting Legretta's -good- defensive stat probably seals it? I just suspect Legretta heal-locks regardless once she hits that magical HP threshold.
Chie Satonaka (Persona 4) vs Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millenium) - Chie doesn't block ID. Game.

Middle

Dekar (Lufia II: Rise of the Sinistrals) vs Ashton Anchors (Star Ocean: The Second Story) - sure why not
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Syphide (Valkyrie Profile: Silmeria) - Syphide has Silence attached to her awful offense, which is just -insulting-. Yukiko outhealing Syphide is laughable, she 4HKOs average, -needs- her SP to do it and I'd be shocked if Syphide couldn't scrounge up some Fire resistance. The stat-busting status could be a point, but that doesn't really fly all too well in such a long match both ways - by the point it connects, Syphide risks having -already- connected Silence. Good night and good luck. (Not factoring Yu into the averages: just say no)
Sara (Breath of Fire) vs Warlock (Suikoden IV) - Man, Sara isn't even far from OHKOing Warlock. Go fish.

Light

Piccolo (Suikoden III) vs Mia Ausa (Lunar: Silver Star Story Complete) - Faster 4HKO? Sures.
Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI) vs Nina Wyndia (Breath of Fire III) - This is embarrassing.
Elena (Final Fantasy VII) vs Tricia (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters) - I'll just give Dhyer a dime or something.

[Pyro]

Godlike

Ashera (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Mewtwo (Pokémon Series): Moveslots damn him? Figures.
Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI): Terra should get two turns due to good Mdef and Morph's damage halving. That's all I think she'll need. Maybe I'm underestimating his ITD drain move though.
Cidolfas Orlandu (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Cid Raines (Final Fantasy XIII): I guess?
Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Apocrypha (Radiant Historia)

Heavy

Galcian (Skies of Arcadia) vs Wakka (Final Fantasy X): Blah blah blah Eternum.
Legretta (Tales of the Abyss) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time): I suppose this goes her way?
Chie Satonaka (Persona 4) vs Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millenium): God Hand and a physical kills? Edit: Nope. Don't think so.
Cthulhu (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Elincia (Fire Emblem Series)

Let me take a moment here. Everyone here sees Elincia as dodging fatal damage turn 1 and stunning for a win? If you take her equal Lvl he probably just doubles and kills with Tentacles or something, but with the Cursed Sword he should OHKO, even to the level-laden Elincia. If you take her having 54% evade (something that involves giving her the Authority bonus that everyone shares and she can't even utilize at endgame, and then not scaling evade at all and assuming 50% or greater dodges everything turn 1), I imagine Insane Death should tilt the odds back in Cthulhu's favor, since the required adjustment is minor. It seems a lot of assumptions for Eirika, and even then I think Cthulhu should win.

It just kind of blows my mind that Elincia is suddenly a >50% dodge rate, 1.4x + overkiller with 75% chance of stun and counters in the DL. In Heavy? Even Eirika upgraded to Godlike, and she's nowhere near this good in practice.

Middle

Dekar (Lufia II: Rise of the Sinistrals) vs Ashton Anchors (Star Ocean: The Second Story): Ashton is just a kind of good physical fighter. Dekar is better at this whole slugging business.
Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Nina (Breath of Fire: Dragon Quarter): Buff -> Smite? I can't imagine all three DQ folks get the uber-expensive damage-halving stuff. Kind of silly.
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Syphide (Valkyrie Profile: Silmeria): This is the fight that never ends. Yes it goes on and on my friend. At least until Yukiko runs out of SP.
Sara (Breath of Fire) vs Warlock (Suikoden IV): She's faster than Warlock? Okay.

Light

Sazh Katzroy (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Kahn (Breath of Fire IV)
Piccolo (Suikoden III) vs Mia Ausa (Lunar: Silver Star Story Complete): Thanks for doing mathy stuffs Dhyer
Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI) vs Nina Wyndia (Breath of Fire III)
Elena (Final Fantasy VII) vs Tricia (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters): Sure Dhyer can work this for me too.

[Yoshiken]

Snow: The figures I used were the average with Souji and without Rise, since that's, y'know, normal and not weird OK interps and stuff. That said, Silence is a thing. Yukiko can have evasion-whoring, though, and I think some silence resistance? No idea which happens first between her getting a crit and silence, though, and too lazy to math out anything since we don't have crit rates.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

With Auto-Taru? There's no reason to not factor Auto-Taru with the way P4 armor works.

[Dark Holy Elf]

If it's any consolation, I think Elincia is too good for Heavy, and said as much over a year ago. That said not everyone takes equal exp so average of interps leaves her there. *shrug* Not much you can do about that.

[Random Consonant]

Insane Death isn't tilting the match in Cthulhu's favor against Equal EXP Elincia anyways.  Even assuming it's an irreducible 10% chance of kicking in (which I have trouble agreeing with against stuff with a clear source of status resistance anyways), the actual odds of Cthulhu hitting are closer to 43% (in fairness I should have went through and accounted for FE hit mechanics, but oh well), and if he misses with Dark Strike, Elincia gets to counter with a 51% chance of activating Stun (assuming Cthulhu's speed stops her from doubling), which kind of turns Cthulhu into hamburger considering the durability loss he suffers.

Without Authority or Equal EXP she should lose, yeah, but I don't really know where the "everyone" part of Pyro's comment is coming from.

[Pyro]

Right, Elincia with 1.4x overkill would finish off before turn 2 starts, so she'd have a ~51% chance of winning with the even-higher evade!

This assumes the following things in Elincia's favor

A) Elincia gets the level advantage, which is something she has for a very specific way of playing the game that levels units you'll not take into the final chapters.
B) Elincia gets the Authority bonus (And is this being ignored for enemies? Everyone should get this and it should be included in average enemy stats, I would think. Can't even check this right now due to system issues)
C) Cthulhu is no better at hitting things than your average FE enemy
D) >50% dodge against said hit rate always makes the first attack miss.

I like Elincia, but doesn't this seem a little extreme? I'm just kind of shocked everyone seems to see her as a pretty spiffy Godlike.

Edit: Also revising the P4 matches, since I think both lose with an even slightly higher damage average.

[Random Consonant]

A) Elincia gets the level advantage, which is something she has for a very specific way of playing the game that levels units you'll not take into the final chapters.

As opposed to some other very specific way of playing the game that levels units you'll not take into the final chapters?

B) Elincia gets the Authority bonus (And is this being ignored for enemies? Everyone should get this and it should be included in average enemy stats, I would think. Can't even check this right now due to system issues)

Authority is absolutely not being ignored for enemies under the numbers I've been using, the enemy evasion value doesn't add to what it's listed as otherwise.  As for Elincia's own Authority bonus, I assume that each FE10 character is their own leader in a duel since that is what would, in all likelyhood, happen in a similar hypothetical ingame scenario.   Yes, it skews things relative to *Endgame*, but hey, things get skewed like that all the way up until then.  The only exceptions to this are characters that never get to be a leader ever, since rewarding them for something that is absolutely never made to come up isn't something I like to do.  It's a messy inelegant transition, I know, but honestly, I don't think there's a solution to this that I'd like and this is the least obnoxious one to me.

C) Cthulhu is no better at hitting things than your average FE enemy

Considering CSTW lacks things like accuracy and evasion I feel like this is fair. <_<

D) >50% dodge against said hit rate always makes the first attack miss.

No, it assumes that said hit rate hits x% of the time.  Which in this particular case means he has a ~45-46% of overall winning the quickdraw thanks to the increase from Insane Death (again, assuming its rate is unaffected by any of Elincia's stats), and when your odds are that low against someone who has a 100% chance of turning you into calamari when she gets the chance, then *welp*.

[Yoshiken]

With Auto-Taru? There's no reason to not factor Auto-Taru with the way P4 armor works.

Except that most of the cast don't want Auto-Taru. If you factor in every possible buff and accessory for every game, then fine, but somehow, I don't see that as likely.
Personally, I give a penalty to the buff if someone wants to go with an Auto-kaja equip, but to make it so that everyone is penalised in their stats for not equipping one of three potential skills? Yeaaah, no thanks.

Even then, Yukiko crits (and I definitely remember a high crit rate) + potential for dizzy + doing extra damage to downed enemies + Auto-Suku (if you really want to take Auto-Taru as standard) means that Sylphide's having a very hard time landing that all-important Silence and, even if she does, it just means that Yukiko spends slightly longer breaking the healing. All it takes is 2 consecutive crits for a minimum of 72% damage and dizzy, so Yukiko gets another chance to attack. Fairly sure the Down damage is a 25% buff or something, so the second crit is 45%, and the following attack is 22.5%. Added to the initial 36% crit, that means consecutive crits gets Yukiko the win.
This is, of course, assuming Silence lands immediately, despite Auto-Suku, with Auto-Taru as standard.

Correction: One or the other. Auto-Suku as standard means Yukiko can kill, even when Silenced. Auto-Taru as standard means she's not getting Silenced any time soon. Take your pick.

[superaielman]

Any sort of status would give Yukiko the win, offhand. VP Light warriors suck ass at offense and she has a ton of resources to use.

[OblivionKnight]

Snow: The figures I used were the average with Souji and without Rise, since that's, y'know, normal and not weird OK interps and stuff. That said, Silence is a thing. Yukiko can have evasion-whoring, though, and I think some silence resistance? No idea which happens first between her getting a crit and silence, though, and too lazy to math out anything since we don't have crit rates.

There is nothing wrong with my interpretations!


Godlike

Ashera (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Mewtwo (Pokémon Series) - Ashera.  Mewtwo is too light-weight here.
Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI) - Terra.  Just far, far more maneuverable here. 
Cidolfas Orlandu (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Cid Raines (Final Fantasy XIII) - Cid.  Not even close.  Just hard to knock out.
Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Apocrypha (Radiant Historia) - Apocrypha.  Much, much harder to knock out of the ring.

Heavy

Galcian (Skies of Arcadia) vs Wakka (Final Fantasy X) - Galcian.  As long as he gets close, he can knock Wakka out easily.  Wakka looks heavy-weight, but he's really light.  Galcian is really, really heavy (oddly), so he can take a couple balls to the face (much like Jo'ou does on a daily basis)
Legretta (Tales of the Abyss) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time) - Legretta.  Unlike the above match, this can be a pure range fight here.  Legretta wins that handily.  Close-range, Nel's got an advantage, but again, she's lighter, so a couple good hits will knock her out of the ring.
Chie Satonaka (Persona 4) vs Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millenium) - Chie.  Again, Rune's too telegraphed.  Chie can dodge anything and then GALACTIC PUNT him out.
Cthulhu (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Elincia (Fire Emblem Series) - Cthulhu.  Seriously, come on - Insanity makes it so Elincia cannot use anything effectively, and SHE CAN'T KILL.  It's her main thing - she's great for weakening things with all her special moves, but she HAS to be switched out for someone else.  It's a problem with the game here, she's awesome, but the nature of this tournament weakens her so much.

Middle

Dekar (Lufia II: Rise of the Sinistrals) vs Ashton Anchors (Star Ocean: The Second Story) - Ashton.  The speed and average weight class is enough.
Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Nina (Breath of Fire: Dragon Quarter) - Nina.  Flying > most.
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Syphide (Valkyrie Profile: Silmeria) - Yukiko.  Range damage FTW.
Sara (Breath of Fire) vs Warlock (Suikoden IV) - Warlock.  Sara is too damn big to be effective here.

Light

Sazh Katzroy (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Kahn (Breath of Fire IV) - Kahn.  Speed > most here.
Piccolo (Suikoden III) vs Mia Ausa (Lunar: Silver Star Story Complete) - Probably the closest match here.  Both are really light, both are ranged attackers...going with Mia, here.  Cryo Shield, well-timed, can reflect things, so...it might help tip things?
Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI) vs Nina Wyndia (Breath of Fire III) - Nina.  Flying helps her avoid most things here.
Elena (Final Fantasy VII) vs Tricia (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters) - Tricia.  Better range here.

[Pyro]

There is nothing wrong with my interpretations!

I saw this and immediately shouted OBJECTION!!!


Random:

I'm regards to levels, I am alluding to the idea of assuming equal participation by all deployed units when you may very well focus on a smaller sub-group of favored units. As that pool shrinks you get a smaller group of higher levelled units, and then at the end combine the elite from the different 'teams' (greil, micaiah's, Crimea, etc...). The best interp for Elincia is max participation, and her level lead looks worse as you adsume a smaller party size. I think this is why I have always kneejerked higher levels in FE10. I need to find my Wii power supply.

The evade thing is an ooooolllld argument that I actually figured I had mostly won. it boils down to saying that Cthulhu's 100% hit rate is 100% against average FE10 evade, rather than being reduced to 85% just cause. So Elincia's dodge rate would be less than 50%. There are more complex and interesting ways to take it but the heart of it is that folks outside FE should not be penalized for FE enemies sucking. Taken to the extreme this could get really silly. Ceck NEB's D&D topic for a good way of approaching the philosophy.

And I think Insane Death gets two shots of activating with the Cursed Sword. One before anyone acts and once at the beginning of turn 2.

[Random Consonant]

I am alluding to the idea of assuming equal participation by all deployed units when you may very well focus on a smaller sub-group of favored units. As that pool shrinks you get a smaller group of higher levelled units, and then at the end combine the elite from the different 'teams' (greil, micaiah's, Crimea, etc...). The best interp for Elincia is max participation, and her level lead looks worse as you adsume a smaller party size.

Oh no playstyle differences seriously who cares.

it boils down to saying that Cthulhu's 100% hit rate is 100% against average FE10 evade, rather than being reduced to 85% just cause

Which is all well and good if you agree with averaging evasion, but a number of people don't, including myself, and if you're going to do *that*, you honestly may as well just treat it as another form of durability.  Also real hit rate to average there = 96%, FE hit mechanics, remember?

There are more complex and interesting ways to take it but the heart of it is that folks outside FE should not be penalized for FE enemies sucking.

Because having a 96% hit rate to average = sucking.  Uh huh, sure.

Seriously, use whatever interps you want here but you're honestly making a mountain out of a molehill here.  Nothing you're complaining about is even that out there as far as interps go, and to be honest I don't care to continue this particular discussion.  I will address one last point though:

And I think Insane Death gets two shots of activating with the Cursed Sword. One before anyone acts and once at the beginning of turn 2.

Having used the Cursed Sword constantly in the endgame stretch I can safely say that this is 100% incorrect.