Redoing an old season: S18 W5. Can I downgrade all four of the middles in M/L?

[superaielman]

Sephiroth>Chaos
Rashidi>Virgil

Seed>Maya
Elc>Rosa

Fiora 4, Rauny 3  (Hatbot)
Kyra>Mia

Garet>Luna
Jean>Rico

Godlike:

Sephiroth (FF7) vs Rashidi (OB)

Heavy:

Seed (S2) vs Elc (AtLC)

Middle:

Fiora (FE7) vs Kyra (PS4)

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jean (BoF2)

Pools:

H/G:

Cecilia, Lucia, Deis, Celes, Elc, Seed

M/H:

Lin, Haschel, Debonair, Sonya, Kyra, Fiora

L/M:

Rena, Twaikin, Mullen, Zylo, Garet, Jean

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Can I downgrade all four of the middles in M/L?

You brought this upon yourself.

Sephiroth (FF7) vs Rashidi (OB) - lol ohkos and quite possibly goes first. Not that he -has- to go first.

Seed (S2) vs Elc (AtLC) - Silent Lake has a case to be faster than Elc! It -doesn't matter-, counters, evade and Seed HP ensure Elc just straight-up outslugs in spite of his below average offense. :garcia:

Fiora (FE7) vs Kyra Tierney (PS4) - It takes a Lucina-calibur FE physical slugger to even have a case against Kyra, inane shit like Lethality aside.


Pools: later.

H/G:

Lucia, Cecilia, Deis, Celes, Elc, Seed

Well, this is a doozy. Lucia blitzes Celes, Cecilia and... really nobody else. Cecilia gets her turn before Lucia's third action (she fails a 2HKO), but there's nothing she can do to avoid death before getting a second turn, which she -really needs- to win (with Lucia's ridiculous amount of attacks, Ceci just gets Dualcast by her second turn, methinks, but it's irrelevant). Since I don't allow Parasol to eat the Ninja Stars... Seed's second action is faster than Lucia's, and both 2HKO each other. Elc is Elc and Deis just goes first and OHKOs - not that she -has- to OHKO. Even blitzing Celes is kinda questionable with the evade, but Celes healing just isn't good enough and Vanish strategies don't work when magic is in play (even if such magic deals no damage). Cecilia, besides Lucia, also bites it to Seed: he just kills her before she gets a turn. On the other hand, the rest of the pool is her caddy slave: Elc's skillset hilariously fails against Parasol and both Dispel and Cecilia's own buffing game eat Elc's Charge => OHKO long-term strats, which would be his only shot. Deis suffers a similar fate in spite of the brutal statistical superiority. Celes... well, pretty much the same boat as Elc, her non-Reflectable options just don't really work. Deis has the mdef, non-elemental offense and speed to bumrush Celes' status and annoyance game, so that's that. Against Elc, it's an interesting conundrum: I think Deis2 wins (more respect for her speed than Elc's, since I'm pretty sure I penalize AtL2 speed in SD potency because of how irrelevant the stat is in-game - I think it takes something Shining-Force-speed-level-bad to be worse than it), but I vote on Deis1... who gets eventually killed by Invincible whoring. She gets one shot at 50% ID and then it just doesn't really pan out. Celes vs. Elc is a trainwreck where RUNIC becomes relevant - and it actually likely wins the fight for her: Elc has to open with Invincible because of Celes status whoring, so she applies Haste, then Runic => survive a Charge string because she's tanky or just lap into Vanish - and Mind Buster isn't really killing her MP in time. Also, allowing statusblockers to catch status that doesn't exist in-game, as always, can dig a hole, fill it up with acid and dip into it. As said before, Elc dies the minute he can no longer apply Invincible, and he gets completely walled by Runic+Vanish. Fail. Meanwhile, Seed spoils Deis because Silent Lake is faster than her (roughly 2 SDs above average speed, she's a wee bit below that). Same applies to Celes. Finally, Elc handles Seed, like in the finals. So, tally!

Cecilia: 3-2
Elc: 3-2
Lucia: 2-3
Deis: 2-3
Seed: 2-3
Celes: 1-4

Elc up, possibly along with Seed. Lucia and Celes down. What a goddamn mess.

M/H:

Haschel, Debonair, Sonya, Kyra, Fiora

Kyra beats all but Haschel. Kaus, who has the strongest case out of the losers, doesn't even one-round her, so Warla means she now can leisurely attrition it out- his spread out offense works against him here. Haschel, on the other hand, is saved by the ID (super is right on the money there: Kyra -needs- to buff/heal, Sleep is useless because Haschel is faster). The rest is a no-brainer: Sonya just can't deal with the resources and Fiora already lost. Besides that, though, Debonair fares pretty stellarly: his pressure actually -is- good enough to heal-lock Sonya and he just outslugs the rest. Sonya vs. Haschel: Sonya gets overwhelmed by the compound limit+ID threats - otherwise, she'd be able to parlay that healing/accuracy-busting game into a victory. Haschel vs. Fiora... well, she doesn't double, so he probably gets too much time with the threat of limit turns, which bust Fiora's skull open. Sonya vs. Fiora is more of the same - no doubling means Fiora's pressure is lacking, Fog of Deception can cause further problems and Sonya can certainly tank a Killer crit+counter - she doesn't survive -two- killer crits in a row, but she honestly doesn't have to. Fiora just goes absolutely nowhere.

Kyra: 3-1
Debonair: 3-1
Haschel: 2-2
Sonya: 1-3
Fiora: 0-4

Kyra up, Sonya down.

L/M:

Rena, Twaikin, Mullen, Zylo, Jean

I respect Jean's silence more than Rena's, so reverse super's statement for me. He sweeps. Rena, meanwhile, owns all the other losers. Twaikin fails less than Zylo and Mullen and Mullen quite possibly loses slugfests with Rufus Shinra. What the hell.

Jean: 4-0
Rena: 3-1
Twaikin: 2-2
Zylo: 1-3
Mullen: 0-4 (:eurambarows:)

[superaielman]

Godlike:

Sephiroth (FF7) vs Rashidi (OB)- This is quick.

Heavy:

Seed (S2) vs Elc (AtLC)- This is Decus/Seed remixed.  Seed gets up SL before Elc can go and halves his physical, but may get outslugged anyway. I have no idea, abstain for the moment.

Middle:

Fiora (FE7) vs Kyra (PS4)- Easy enough.

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jean (BoF2)- Faster.


Cecilia, Lucia, Deis, Celes, Elc, Seed/Maya

H/G:

Lucia: 4-1 (Loss: Elc)
Cecilia: 3-2 (Loss: Lucia, Seed)
Seed: 2-2 (Loss: Lucia, Deis)
Elc: 2-2 (Loss: Celes, Cecilia)
Celes: 2-3   (Loss: Cecilia, Lucia, Seed)
Deis: 1-4 (Loss: Cecilia, Lucia, Elc, Celes)

Tight field.

NOTE: I am assuming that Seed/Lucia immune all major statuses. I think they did, but I'm not 100% on it.  Lucia blitzes out everyone but Elc. Cecilia gets a turn, but I don't think she can do enough to stop Lucia's triple acting from overwhelming.  Elc/Celes was a kneejerk that  Celes can outlast with Runic/haste/safe. Elc's spells are fairly expensive and he has to avoid status.  Could be argued there.  Elc gets walled bad by Cecilia's aborb spell and he can't outlast her MP/buffing game. I think cure alls blocked death, so he gets past Deis.  SL owns Cecilia/Celes, Deis and Lucia outslug Seed. Celes may well get swept, both of her wins (Elc and Deis) are pretty close fights. Deis matches up poorly with this field.

Lin, Haschel, Debonair, Sonya, Kyra, Fiora
Assuming Fiora wins.

Debonair: 4-1 (Loss: Kyra)
Lin: 3-2 (Loss: Debonair, Fiora)
Kyra: 3-2 (Loss: Lin, Haschel)
Haschel: 2-3 (Loss: Debonair, Fiora, Lin)
Fiora: 2-3 (Loss: Debonair, Kyra, Lin)
Sonya: 1-4 (Loss: All but Fiora)

Assumption: Lin's ID is 50%. If it's lower, she's getting swept.

Debonair's only trouble fight is Kyra. He needs to have enough offense left after Telele/Warla to kill (whichever's better). I lean towards no, will look into it. He is fairly close to killing with a single attack as is.  Lin ID whores past Haschel/Kyra/Sonya. Fiora has enough evasion to make her ID turn two, and she should two round Lin.. Lin's guns hitting weakness on Fiora is irrelevant; Lin's not a strong enough damage dealer to take advantage of that.  Kyra loses to a couple of ID whores. Haschel's thunder immunitiy and speed advantage makes me think he lives long enough for the destroyer mace to work. Kyra can't entirely blow off his offense either, she is going to have to heal once or buff her defense to prevent damage from doing her in. . Sonya's a middle, not enough damage to hang in Heavy in spite of good stats.


Rena, Twaikin, Mullen, Zylo, Garet, Jean

Garet: 5-0
Rena: 4-1 (WHAT IS THIS SHIT)
Jean: 3-2
Twaikin: 2-3
Zylo: 1-4
Mullen: Mullen

Notes: Very straight forward and pathetic. Garet sweeps. Rena lands silence before Jean, she can outslug him from there.  Twaikin and Zylo are bad enough at offense to get owned by Rena healing spam (fail). Mullen is Mullen, he is swept. Jean IDs the two bad ID weak PC's. Twaikin has defense, making him less sad than Zylo.

This is the second straight light field where it's been A: Pathetic. and B: Me wishing I could downgrade most of the Middles. Luna and Rico are both better than Twaikin and Jean, which is all kinds of sad.

[superaielman]

A: Bite me, you deserve that M/L field. B:

Seed (S2) vs Elc (AtLC) - Silent Lake has a case to be faster than Elc! It -doesn't matter-, counters, evade and Seed HP ensure Elc just straight-up outslugs. :garcia:

Elc's physical is fire elemental which Seed resists.

C: Kyra/Debonair's a good enough match!

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike:

Sephiroth (FF7) vs Rashidi (OB)

Heavy:

Seed (S2) vs Elc (AtLC)- Elc's Turn Speed 1 is like +2.5 SD, so I don't even SL outspeeds him (unless you want to count in Choko and Diek, but then you also have to count Paundit, Hemo-Ji, Raijin, Fujin, Kelack, Odom...etc, and I don't believe they were exactly bursting with stats)

Middle:

Fiora (FE7) vs Kyra (PS4)

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jean (BoF2)- Slightly faster by a hair.

Pools:

H/G:

Cecilia, Lucia, Deis, Celes, Elc, Seed

M/H:

Lin, Haschel, Debonair, Sonya, Kyra, Fiora

L/M:

Rena, Twaikin, Mullen, Zylo, Garet, Jean

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

The area-attack physical skill isn't Fire-elemental, though, and it borderline 2HKOs Seed even being below average damage (I also don't see it being shut down by SL). The counter pretty much seals it even if Seed resists it.

[Pyro]

Godlike:

Sephiroth (FF7) vs Rashidi (OB): Ugly, Brutish, and Short.

Heavy:

Seed (S2) vs Elc (AtLC): Invincible. Seed's Silent Lake isn't that fast and Elc's speed is pretty good (AtL2 speed is good for turn 1 at least). Also not sure I'd see Silent Lake inflicting Silence through Invincible...

Middle:

Fiora (FE7) vs Kyra (PS4): Warla/healing.

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jean (BoF2)

Pools:

H/G:

Cecilia, Lucia, Deis, Celes, Elc, Seed

Cecillia < Lucia. Probably doesn't OHKO. Kinda needs to?
Cecillia > Deis. Parasol and shit.
Cecilia > Celes. Non-reflectable options are insufficient.
Cecilia > Elc. Prison and healing/evade gimmick.
Cecilia < Seed. She never sees a turn.

Lucia < Deis. OHKO.
Lucia > Celes. Vanish is met with fire magic (which Celes nulls but cancels Vanish). Celes doesn't have the offense to win a straight slugfest? Maybe she 2HKO's and isn't... 5HKO'd? Eh..... kneejerking no.
Lucia < Elc. Invincible -> Mincemeat. Alternatively counters/fire res/halving and so on.
Lucia < Seed. He is faster no?

Deis > Celes. Death and status resistance?
Deis < Elc. No way to restore MP?
Deis > Seed. OHKO's.

Celes < Elc. Cure-All. Mind Buster. She can take advantage of his nerfed defense if she moves to the front row and takes 2x damage from Extract, but it doesn't help her.
Celes > Seed. I don't think he gets her in one shot?

Elc > Seed has already been covered.


Other pools later maybe.

M/H:

Lin, Haschel, Debonair, Sonya, Kyra, Fiora



L/M:

Rena, Twaikin, Mullen, Zylo, Garet, Jean

[Dark Holy Elf]

Fiora vs Kyra is the only match I can vote on and it's very easy, go-first-cast-Warla.

Pools later.

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike:

Sephiroth (FF7) vs Rashidi (OB)- No vote

Heavy:

Seed (S2) vs Elc (AtLC)- no vote.

Middle:

Fiora (FE7) vs Kyra (PS4)

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jean (BoF2)

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Pyro: Suikoden 2 Silent Lake gets a +35 speed bonus, like every Suikoden 2 support spell. 35 is roughly the SD for the game, and Seed himself is around there. That's fast enough (certainly faster than Elc to me, but I spit on AtL2 speed worth, both for its paltry effects and for its egregiously suck spread. One of the few cases where I don't take standard deviations at 25% speed).

[Lance]

Godlike
Sephiroth (FF7) vs Rashidi (OB)

Middle
Fiora (FE7) vs Kyra (PS4)



Pools:

H/G:
Cecilia > Celes > Lucia > Deis > Seed

M/H:
Kyra > Sonya > Debonair > Fiora > Lin

L/M:
Jean > Rena > Twaikin > Mullen > Zylo

[Nephrite]

Godlike:

Sephiroth (FF7) vs Rashidi (OB)

Heavy:

Seed (S2) vs Elc (AtLC)

Middle:

Fiora (FE7) vs Kyra (PS4)

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jean (BoF2)

[Random Consonant]

Heavy:

Seed (S2) vs Elc (AtLC) - I do think I see Elc turn 1 speed beating out SL.

Middle:

Fiora (FE7) vs Kyra (PS4) - Defense buffing/healing, easy enough

Light:

Garet (GS) vs Jean (BoF2) - Faster.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Godlike:

Sephiroth (FF7) vs Rashidi (OB)

Heavy:

Seed (S2) vs Elc (AtLC)- Elc's Turn Speed 1 is like +2.5 SD, so I don't even SL outspeeds him (unless you want to count in Choko and Diek, but then you also have to count Paundit, Hemo-Ji, Raijin, Fujin, Kelack, Odom...etc, and I don't believe they were exactly bursting with stats)

I honestly see no good goddamn reason not to factor Diekbeck into the averages other than "he's an uglyface neener neener". He doesn't get fight restrictions, no unrankability problems (his best chips are obscure. Who the fuck cares, his stat builds for the DL are very clear - and honestly highly overlap with how you'd even bother to use him in-game at all. Are we not factoring in Seraphic Radiance damage into the averages now because of obscurity? Not factoring it in before was stupid -anyway-) and is one of the first PCs you get. Choko, I'll definitely grant (at least if you don't allow uber Choko - which I -don't-), but I can't fathom what's the reasoning behind not factoring a PC that's available for the whole game other than his obnoxious DL translation compared to his in-game worth, which isn't exactly a reason, he's not even a summoned monster from Lieza. Maybe if he was unrankably good.

-Regardless-, that's not the reason why I respect the idea of Seed being faster than Elc -anyway-, especially since I think even with Dieck and uber Choko he's above +2 SDs. I think using different SD values to reward or punish a game's TB speed is fine (I use a different threshold for Endless Frontier, for instance. I used to do it for Shining Force before Pyro tossed in the idea of using only threat range, which I decided to subscribe to as well. AtL2 speed is only one tier above Shining Force because it doesn't have pretty much 100% randomness and sometimes you actually get into enemy ranges by turn one). And AtL2 speed is one of the least relevant I've ever seen in spite of its regularity. Fail-turn-based speed in a SRPG environment is an open invitation to obsolescence.

Tangentially, you could get into the argument of "oh but x game's speed has a high randomness factor so it's bad", but I've yet to see a degree of randomness outside of Shining Force that makes TB speed not an invaluable stat to have. Heck, absence of randomness often -devalues- the stat unless it's... well, Shining Force-level. Goddamn, Shining Force speed is the worst stat.

[Dhyerwolf]

Yes, I guess you can factor Diekbeck into the averages, but no, I'm holding the items that need super sidequesting against other PCs (Ditto to Seraphic Radiance! If one character has some spike right at the end especially a spike needing a ton of extra work, I'm not necessarily going to hold it against the other characters. If half the characters spike at the end, different story). Diekbeck would need to be weighed against all those others regardless (same tier to me), and I have no idea what their speed was (but Paundit's stats trended low, and a lot of the rest weren't so hot either I think).

On the other matter, my memory of ATL 2 is that threat ranges are often close enough that you can often put something to use turn 1. I could be wrong in this; I see it as average post turn 1.

I certainly disagree that randomness adds worth to speed. Going ahead of an enemy 100% of the time is better than going first 75% of the time and going second 25% because of randomness. Predicability is an advantage.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Yes, I guess you can factor Diekbeck into the averages, but no, I'm holding the items that need super sidequesting against other PCs (Ditto to Seraphic Radiance! If one character has some spike right at the end especially a spike needing a ton of extra work, I'm not necessarily going to hold it against the other characters. If half the characters spike at the end, different story). Diekbeck would need to be weighed against all those others regardless (same tier to me), and I have no idea what their speed was (but Paundit's stats trended low, and a lot of the rest weren't so hot either I think).

Yeah, different views there. I've always been radically against wah-wahing regarding sidequest crap unless it enters the aftergame realm (which none of Diek's chips do! And there -is- an aftergame of sorts to AtL2!).

On the other matter, my memory of ATL 2 is that threat ranges are often close enough that you can often put something to use turn 1. I could be wrong in this; I see it as average post turn 1.

The reverse is more often true. The only reason I even consider AtL2's speed spread turn one is that the amount of battles where something actually can happen beside moving on the first turn isn't insignificant, though. But the other reason I punish AtL2's speed is also it's horrible, horrible spread. Besides Bravery Wing Elc and Diek/Choko, the PC cast and even enemies are often like 1-2 points apart. It's a standard deviation of fucking two points or something where, Elc/Diek/Choko excluded (and Elc only figures in that equation because of an equip!), the split from slowest to fastest is five points and entire chunks of the cast share the same speed. Giving a cast where speed differences are that small and irrelevant high values for them -in addition to the stat itself being junk- just doesn't sit well with me.

And I see where you're coming from, but I see this more from a meta standpoint design: no randomness makes it so speed is only ever useful until a certain threshold, which is an internal problem faced by almost every TB game. Randomness means this threshold is more fluid and you care more about getting the stat as high as possible rather than just high enough to beat a certain mark. Predictability is an advantage, but being able to overcome unpredictability feels more impactful. And this is also a contending point in CTB RPGs where the starting point in the CTB gauge is decided randomly!

EDIT: tl;dr what I mean is that I don't think that a degree of randomness makes a speed stat necessarily less valuable.

[Dark Holy Elf]

I don't have much problem with removing stuff because it is too hard to get from the averages, but it should probably also be seen as illegal for that character too! (I will say that also didn't find Seraphic Radiance particularly difficult to get, as I did it without a FAQ, and with a FAQ to avoid missing the two random points of no return it is quite easy indeed.) I already take this view on a few things (certain Suikoden 5 skills for instance).

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

The Suiko5 skills fall into the aftergame realm to me, which is fair game to exclude. But yeah, I mean it mostly in the sense of "you allow it or you don't, and you reflect it accordingly into the averages". None of the "oh I allow it but I don't factor it in, I don't allow it but I factor it in" bullshit. If I don't allow uber Choko, for instance, she has no business being in the averages ever.

[Dhyerwolf]

So then GR Lenneth in damage averages?

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Yes. It's also worth noting that GR Lenneth doesn't actually change all -that- much in effect for the money duellers (Arngrim and Lawfer still two-round; Lucian still 2HKOs. Don't think a single division shift really happens, since VP damage as a rule is already very spread out and done in bursts). I waffle sometimes over it because it's a change that exists for literally one fight, but then I also factor in Re-Al, don't I? And Diek's chips certainly are nowhere as extreme in that regard.

[Dhyerwolf]

That's fine. I just prefer to leave big spikes out for the rest of the cast, generally defaulting to them for what the item in question was before the big spike. GR Lenneth does bump the damage average up 40%, so Lucian going from near OHKO to like 65%-70% damage is a pretty massive change.

On predictability, I guess often in game, unpredictable nature can affect slower people in a positive way more. What makes Sharon's speed so good in LoL 2? It's that she's so far above the average that you know that she's never going to have problems with enemies going before her. Speed is only static when you are a higher speed than the fastest enemy in the game. I don't really factor in randomness much anyways (I mean...Suiko 4, yes) because that would mean how randomness factors in for each game has to be equated. The only game where I know how it works is PS 4, and I don't have solid memories all of the enemies there to say much it matters because all the bosses trend so sluggish.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

On predictability, I guess often in game, unpredictable nature can affect slower people in a positive way more. What makes Sharon's speed so good in LoL 2? It's that she's so far above the average that you know that she's never going to have problems with enemies going before her. Speed is only static when you are a higher speed than the fastest enemy in the game. I don't really factor in randomness much anyways (I mean...Suiko 4, yes) because that would mean how randomness factors in for each game has to be equated. The only game where I know how it works is PS 4, and I don't have solid memories all of the enemies there to say much it matters because all the bosses trend so sluggish.

Yeah, regarding Sharon, you -are- right. But her speed wouldn't be nearly as valuable if the game itself didn't have this element of randomness. Sure, you can say (and can be correct about that!) that Sharon's speed is possibly better than Alena's in that vaccuum. On the other hand, even if Alena doesn't always goes first, you still -want- her speed bad, since she almost always outpaces randoms and almost never goes late in the fight. And, as for PS4 speed... well, randoms usually aren't slow (their average speed is higher than PC speed, for starters), but in PS4 you exercise a degree in control of turn flow through macros, which are hugely valuable for that alone, especially since it helps enforce the order on people who are more likely to beat the flow. Rika ends up shining in that regard anyway.

[Pyro]

I think TB speed is best measured as "what % of enemies do you go before" and taking an average of that for the PCs to get a handle on how good speed really is.

For that purpose, randomness tends to drag everyone to the 'center' so to speak of this kind of distribution (since the slow will now sometimes go before enemies they wouldn't have in a non-random system, and vice-versa for the fast PCs). This DOES represent being "too fast for the randomness to matter" being an even better status... it means that while the rest of the cast is dragged towards the middle of the distribution by randomness, Speedy McSpeederson isn't and looks even better because the system has randomness and they beat it.

This has no bearing on this week's matches.

As for Diekbeck, getting all of his power chips is a Pain.In.The.Ass. There are an assload of dungeons you have to go through for them (in order, no skipping!) and every single one of them sucks massively. Also you have to keep the power units in your inventory to get access to further ruins and doing so eats up valuable space. And to get the FINAL set of chips you have to do a huge amount of sidequests, which isn't that bad but adds insult to injury really... It wouldn't be so bad if Diek's dungeons were easily skippable via turn-shifting like the 50-floor dungeon is...

Most AtL2 battles give you a reason for wanting to go first, even if it's throwing an Invincible user into the path of enemies to gain control of grouping and target ranges.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

I got all of Diek's chips, you don't have to tell me it's a pain in the ass. For some reason, I went insane completionist on AtL2, which made me think even less of the game as I went.

[Dark Holy Elf]

H/G:

Cecilia, Lucia, Deis, Celes, Seed

Lucia almost sweeps. I don't see Seed 2HKOing her as some others seem to. She can overwhelm Celes with physicals pretty well I think, even if some of them miss. Deis is the problematic one, since she's fast and durable (Deis1 here, since she's the forced PC) so she should survive long enough to get a second turn and fry Lucia.

Deis gets shut down by both Parasol and Silent Lake. Against Celes, the latter's status is just way, way too much more accurate, 150% Berserk should work pretty well regardless of how much Deis resists status, whereas coinflip Death isn't working turn 1 against game-best MBlock. So she only beats the pool champ! Deis2, idly, probably can beat Celes, but loses to Lucia, so gets the same record.

Cecilia's magic immunity beats Deis and Celes pretty well. Loses to the bosses.

Seed's Silent Lake deals with all the mage PCs, not Lucia though.

Lucia 3-1
Seed 3-1
Cecilia 2-2
Celes 1-3
Deis 1-3

Since Elc is probably a badass, that's Elc/Seed up, Celes/Deis down. Not sure if approve, but the realisation that Silent Lake's speed is breakneck does help Seed a fair deal, so eh.

M/H:

Lin, Haschel, Sonya, Kyra, Fiora

Ugh Lin headaches. Guess she can use that ID move twice a turn so it's 75%? Sure that lets her sweep here.

Kyra sweeps the pure fighters, but Lin/Haschel have ID. Assuming Lin's is turn 2 that gets Kyra, Haschel is... marginally faster, but only 3HKOs with his 25% ID. Still that's good enough, Kyra needs four turns to win (3HKO + either a heal or a buff).

Haschel... can block blind to stop Sonya from destroying him that way, but she's still much faster and 3HKOs first (her pdur is high enough to avoid dying to 2.5 Destroyer Mace hits). He can go dragoon on his second turn I guess, but Sonya just heals in response to that. Against Fiora, he's fast enough to avoid being doubled, but not accurate enough to hit two out of two times and triggers counters, so he gives Fiora four attacks. Thus he only beats Kyra.

Fiora vs. Sonya... hmm. No doubling of course. Sonya's going to blind Fiora.. may take a couple tries but Sonya has healing to erase any progress that Fiora does make. Sonya has enough pdur to survive a Killer Lance crit + non-crit so she should handle this fight pretty well from there even with counters.

Lin 4-0
Kyra 2-2
Sonya 2-2
Fiora 1-3
Haschel 1-3

Assuming a competent Debonair, it's Kyra up and Haschel down.

L/M:

Rena, Twaikin, Mullen, Zylo, Jean

Rena can block ID which neuters Jean, Twaikin sucks, Mullen sucks, Zylo sucks, what the flying fuck.

Jean IDs the rest, except Mullen. He probably beats Mullen anyway because he 2HKOs at worst and isn't 2HKOed or doubled.

Twaikin's physical tanking stops Zylo, and see above for how he does against Mullen.

Zylo on paper isn't the complete shit I remember him being, so he can beat Mullen.

Rena 4-0
Jean 3-1
Twaikin 2-2
Zylo 1-3
Mullen 0-4

Garet up and Jean up, Zylo and Mullen down.