Be the very best! Week 6

[Cmdr_King]

Current standings

MalcomMasher 2-0
Yoshiken 0-2
Laggy 2-0
Nephrite 0-1
Andrew 0-1

Big Stick Farfetch'd Leader: Laggy!

->Ambipom - Technician - Silk Scarf (+Atk/Spe)
~ Fake Out
~ Double Hit
~ Low Kick
~ U-turn

-> Tauros - Intimidate - Choice Band (+Atk/Spe)
~ Double-Edge
~ Earthquake
~ Stone Edge
~ Payback

Staraptor - Intimidate - Life Orb (+Atk/Spe)
~ Brave Bird
~ Close Combat
~ Return
~ Quick Attack

Porygon-Z - Download - Choice Specs (+SpA/Spe)
~ Hyper Beam
~ Dark Pulse
~ Blizzard
~ Discharge

Snorlax - Thick Fat - Lum Berry - (+Atk/SpD)
~ Body Slam
~ Crunch
~ Earthquake
~ Selfdestruct

Farfetch'd - Inner Focus - Stick - (+Atk/Spe)
~ Air Cutter
~ Slash
~ Night Slash
~ Swords Dance

Rain Dancing Water Leader: MalcomMasher!

->Wailord | Oblivious | Wacan Berry | Adamant, EVs 252 Atk/Def, 4 SpD
Rain Dance, Earthquake, Waterfall, Selfdestruct

->Seaking | Swift Swim | Damp Rock | Adamant, EVs 252 Atk/Spe, 4 HP
Rain Dance, Waterfall, Megahorn, Protect

Slowking | Own Tempo | Expert Belt | Modest, EVs 252 HP/SpA, 4 Def
Rain Dance, Surf, Psychic, Ice Beam

Kingler | Hyper Cutter | Focus Sash | Adamant, EVs 252 HP/SpA, 4 Spe
Rain Dance, Crabhammer, X-Scissor, Protect

Kingdra | Swift Swim | King's Rock | Adamant, EVs 252 Atk/Spe, 4 HP
Rain Dance, Waterfall, Outrage, Draco Meteor

Crawdaunt | Shell Armor | Choice Scarf | Impish, EVs 252 HP/Spd, 4 Atk
Rain Dance, Crabhammer, Crunch, Guillotine

This will essentially be the 'finals'.  We'll have one more match between the winner of Andrew/Nephrite and whichever of these teams they haven't faced, but I think double elimination works so there's only the two valid matches more or less.

[Laggy]

Note: I didn't specify natures because I didn't think it'd get down to this level of number crunchy, but assume Nature of +stat on the first stat listed and -stat on the non-used attacking stat (no mixed attackers except for FARFETCH'D, so this works out >_>)

The general strategy I think for my team here is to delay Rain Dance going up as much as possible. Fortunately with the speed advantage on the starters, this seems to be perfectly doable. Ambipom has Fake Out and Tauros OHKOs Seaking with Double-Edge... and 2HKOs everyone else on the team (with a chance to OHKO both Kingdra and Crawdaunt). Since everything else is also slower than Tauros, that means one Poke guaranteed to die in the first two turns, and pretty much no reason to not sack Seaking. (Protect to waste PP I guess? I don't think it'll matter; plus, if the Protect is predicted Tauros picks up a turn 1 kill on Wailord, so call it a wash)

Fake Out does 25%-30% on Wailord, but Ambi can't quite kill him on his next turn, so Tauros steps up to finish the job instead and Ambi gets a hit on whatever swapped in after Seaking. Rain Dance likely kicks in at that point and Kingdra is the obvious Wailord replacement, but with two of the opposing team already down and another hurt... what happens then? How many Pokes can Kingdra score OHKOs off of? *checks*

Waterfall is obviously his optimal move in rain (matches Outrage damage, doesn't have random targeting, doesn't confuse after 2-3 turns and has flinch with King's Rock). Even assuming I didn't shove the 4 stray EVs on Pokes into HP, he just baaaarely misses the OHKO on Ambipom (83.84-98.96%), and for the rest:

Staraptor: 74.59-88.1% (ignoring Intimidate)
Porygon-Z: 74.59-88.1% (huh, same as Staraptor)
Snorlax: 53.36-62.68%

Staraptor debuffs Kingdra's damage, is faster than every other surviving Poke on his team and, and threatens an OHKO on him with Brave Bird  - he is the obvious choice to be sent out. (93.83-111.3%, 68.75% chance to OHKO)

And the rest of the team just explodes to the Porygon-Z Discharge + Snorlax combo (with Snorlax threatening a Selfdestruct if it ekes out a last Farfetch'd standing win). There's definitely potential to be haxed out by Waterfall flinching (either that happens or Staraptor could miss the OHKO), but with Ambi still in reserve I'm not inclined to say it screws me over THAT much.

[Ranmilia]

Team Laggy. Yeah basically what Laggy said.  The two teams are comparable in terms of strategy, except that water team has to basically sacrifice both its leads to get Dance up, and even then is only equaling the hurting that the normal team puts out.   Plus, there's an exploding Snorlax in the back.

[MalcolmMasher]

Actually, Staraptor is outsped by Crawdaunt. (Choice Scarf.)

I think my best plan is to open Protect/Selfdestruct. While this does raise the possibility of Wailord dying in return for naught but backlash to Tauros, that's preferable to giving up Seaking. Additionally, if I were to predict Laggy focusing fire on Wailord, I could throw up Rain Dance with Seaking and then replace a KOed Wailord with Kingdra. I don't think Laggy wants to allow my best case scenario to become a realistic possibility.

That said, while a split DE/FO versus Prot/Boom means I go into turn 2 with both of my initial Pokemon alive, I still struggle to see any paths to victory that do not involve superior prediction, Waterfall flinches, and/or Guillotine hits. All of which are possible, but there's a significant gulf between benefiting from the assistance of Lady Luck and relying upon it.

[Laggy]

Crawdaunt isn't; did the math. It's specced into HP and SpD with a +Def nature... it's like 147 speed and that doesn't outpace Staraptor even scarfed. EDIT: Unless "Spd" is supposed to be Speed and not Spe like the rest of the way it's set up, though I assumed SpD just because you bothered to spec into HP and Def to begin with.

[MalcolmMasher]

The "Spd" on Crawdaunt is indeed supposed to be Speed, not Special Defense. Not my only typo. Note that my team does have an instance of Special Defense on Wailord, where it is properly capitalized. (Crawdaunt runs +Speed because it has a Scarf, and +HP because Guillotine is the reason why I chose it over the thirty million other non-noble waters.) 

[Cmdr_King]

Any other votes?