Season of Champions: Finals!

[superaielman]

Ryu>PD
Piastol>Sephiroth

Luca 4, Arc 3
Elc 3, Claude 2

Juan>Justin
Max>Antenora

Sara>Palom
FuSoYa>Rikku

Godlike:

Ryu (BoF3) vs Piastol (SoA)

Heavy:

Luca Blight (S2) vs Elc (AtLC)

Middle:

Juan (S3) vs Max (SF1)

Light:

Sara (BoF1) vs FuSoYa (FF4)

For fun: The pools for this season.

Fou-Lu, Menardi, Kuja, Kefka, Arc, Luca

Jowy, Decus, Demi, KOS-MOS, Juan, Max

Ramsus, Alice, Nash, Lin, Sara, FuSoYa

[superaielman]

Godlike:

Ryu (BoF3) vs Piastol (SoA)- Should be able to survive Tempest Dance.

Heavy:

Luca Blight (S2) vs Elc (AtLC)- Has way more MP than Arc, which is enough,.

Middle:

Juan (S3) vs Max (SF1)- Survive a single berserker turn.

Light:

Sara (BoF1) vs FuSoYa (FF4)- Runs Fu out of MP offhand.

For fun: The pools for this season.

Fou-Lu, Menardi, Kuja, Kefka, Arc, Luca- Menardi and Kuja downgrade. Luca/Fou-Lu's good without focused dark wave, but it doesn't matter when it's such a clear cut pair of downgraders here.

Jowy, Decus, Demi, KOS-MOS, Juan, Max- This is much harder. Ugh. Abstain for now. Jowy does well, Decus might be in trouble.

Ramsus, Alice, Nash, Lin, Sara, FuSoYa-

Fu: 3-2 (Loss: Sara, Lin)
Nash: 3-2 (Loss: Lin, FuSoYa)
Sara: 3-2 (Loss: Nash, Alice)
Alice: 3-2 (Loss: Nash, Fu)
Lin: 2-3  (Loss: Ramsus, Alice, Sara)
Ramsus: 1-4 (Loss: all but Lin)

Fu statuses out everyone but Sara and gets statused by Lin. Nash eats status twice, Sara gets outlasted by the healers. Alice gets outlasted by Nash and eats status by Fu. Ramsus scrapes a win. Nash can do damage to him (physical turn 1/BoI) which is enough of a tiebreaker.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Middle:

Juan (S3) vs Max (SF1): He probably 2HKOs, but even if he doesn't he will do so sometimes, and also has a decent chance to evade at least once, so surely wins on average. Loses if you don't allow Yellow Scarves though.

Light:

Sara (BoF1) vs FuSoYa (FF4): Heal-locks. Fu is... probably faster? (FF4 speed headaches) but he's not going to be winning on doubleturns when he only has 10 shots of Curaga (21 of Cura but that won't be enough in many cases) and also needs that MP to deal damage.


For fun: The pools for this season.

Fou-Lu, Kuja, Kefka, Luca

Pretty straightforward Fou-Lu > Kefka > Kuja > Luca. The last match is the one I expect to be in question, but Flare Star being ITD and Luca's many shots of low damage ensuring at least one Flare Star counter lets Kuja spoil, I think. Presuming this is Elc up, Menardi down to me.

Jowy, Decus, Demi, KOS-MOS, Juan, Max

Hmm, tough.

Jowy probably sweeps. He claims some OHKOs and many of those he doesn't can't adequately fuck him over in one turn (KOS-MOS comes closest).
Juan's the fastest here, not too far from +2 SD. Combined with his level of offence and the fact that Decus/Demi aren't offensive dynamos, he blitzes both of them out. Against KOS he's too fast for her to instant double with S-Chain and I think he will probably still finish her if blinded, so I think he probably outslugs her, too, but this is close.
Demi resisting fire means Decus is fucked, and she can grind down Max slowly due to speed, unless he can Double her before then. Probably not, she can use sleep to tilt things her way. KOS... not sure how much of S-Chain I'd see working on Demi. She doesn't care about blind and explicitly immunes slow, though, so probably not enough to be worth caring about.
KOS finally gets to fuck over someone utterly with S-Chain in Max. Decus I'm less sure about.
Two explodes takes out Max, doubt he kills before then.

Jowy > Juan > Demi > KOS = Decus > Max

Yikes, what a pool. One of KOS or Decus will "downgrade", although it's to be expected since tourny of champions and all, you'd never actually downgrade any of these people. Juan up because Yellow Scarf!Juan is a good Heavy, let alone Middle.

Ramsus, Alice, Nash, Lin, Sara, FuSoYa

This gives me a headache. Maybe later.

[SnowFire]

Sara (BoF1) vs FuSoYa (FF4)
Okay, Jaffar's ID didn't work against dragons in his game, but FuSoYa's Weak/Tornado works just fine against (robot) Dragons in his home game, and in fact that strategy gets used in the FF4 speedrun.  Since Sara can be afflicted by an HP-1 attack in her own home game, yeah, I can't see a reason not to let this work, despite normally assuming bosses immune that kinda stuff.  Heal until double, Weak->poke.

EDIT: Or since doubling is hard, but Sara's initiative be terrible, just plain go first -> Weak -> eat hit -> poke.

[Random Consonant]

Luca Blight (S2) vs Elc (AtLC)

[Dark Holy Elf]

I thought you had a low opinion of TB characters' doubling abilities? If so, the ATB-slow FuSoYa is unlikely to ever double the TB-slow Sara. I'm not certain he manages it and I use 1 SD = 25% average speed, which is on the high end (Sara is about half a SD below average, so 87.5% to me). Granted, as long as you see him getting his second turn before Sara's second that's good enough for Weak->poke to work... unless low-HP Sara's power boost allows a OHKO (probably not, but it's close on paper depending on how you scale Fu's HP and how good FF4 def is).

[SnowFire]

I do, but I also have a lowish opinion of FF4 ATB speed, and I didn't recall Fu's speed exactly, and even checking the stat topic I don't see Fu's speed listed against a comparable average for the Giant.  General kneejerk is that he's thus averageish speed.  Meanwhile Sara's speed, while TB, is baaad, and probably worse than the stat topic (I think the average speeds Meeple gives are for the entire party - in reality, Karn spends 24/7 merged with some dudes, so the PC speed average is even higher), so Sara hands over a double turn even to average ATB speed reasonably soon.  If my hypothesis about Meeple's speed is right, that'd mean she's more like a full deviation below average, and even if I'm wrong, her naive speed already rams the 80% effective ATB speed cap for me as far as doubles.

It's also vaguely possible Sara fails to 2HKO which would be an instant win of course.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Meeple doesn't list a speed average for FuSoYa, but do note that he does list one for Yang, 20 levels earlier, which is already above Fu's speed... so he's definitely slow for an FF4 PC, 20 to an average which is probably ~30 at the time.

Sara's speed is faster than 2/8 PCs, including one you can't fuse, and as I said is just a half SD below average (with all eight factored in)... it looks worse than it is because BoF1 SD is huge (note that Ox and Mogu are both barely above 0 speed).

[Dhyerwolf]

Looks like Gobi should be the one barely above 0 speed? I thought Mogu was the unfusable one (And she's probably faster than Mogu at least at levels I take. The flip is that I don't factor in Mogu at all versus bosses because he has no conceivable battle use.

Godlike:

Ryu (BoF3) vs Piastol (SoA)

Heavy:

Luca Blight (S2) vs Elc (AtLC)

Middle:

Juan (S3) vs Max (SF1)

Light:

Sara (BoF1) vs FuSoYa (FF4)- Yeah, down with the HP to 1 thing here. FF 4 speed curve is helped by that I think it adds 20.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Oh yeah, was mixing up Gobi's and Mogu's speed.

To be fair, the only fusion which uses both Ox and Gobi outside water is rather FAQ-bait, so at least one should be in the averages regardless. (Not that I really agree with randomly deleting people from averages.)

[Pyro]

Sara is not vulnerable to an HP-1 attack. She takes a couple K damage but still has plenty of HP left if you use the D Hrt.


Tornado does not save Fusoya.

[Nephrite]

Do you mean that she still gets a second wind? Because I've never heard this "It isn't 1 HP thing" before, that's only on Zog.

[SnowFire]

Anyway, I think that thinking about doubles is on the wrong track for Sara, I think she clearly loses the first turn to Fu anyway (certainly hold the full weight of bad TB speed against her for initiative!) and probably the second turn as well, so no need to actually double, just Weak->poke.

Pyro: Really?  It's been ages, but my recollection was that it just zapped her, and no Second Wind made for a very short fight.

I'm fine with deleting people from the averages if they are clearly not intended as a "serious" party member (e.g. boot Jogurt from both the PC averages & the PC averages bosses are taken against, same with DW3 Goof-Off).  Mogu is a weird case though, because there is a reason to use him: a free swap on a dead party member to go use an item, and he's better than Goof-Off class in combat.  Flip side, your team is strictly better with Mogu in it than without him due to the way the BoF1 back rank works; it's weird that something that makes your party better (Mogu's existence) makes enemy bosses look better by dragging the PC average down.  (Maybe hold BoF1 bosses against 5 PCs rather than 4 or something to punish them a different way for that?!).

[Lance]

Godlike
Ryu (BoF3) vs Piastol (SoA)

Middle
Juan (S3) vs Max (SF1)

Light
Sara (BoF1) vs FuSoYa (FF4)


Pools:

Fou-Lu > Kefka > Luca > Kuja

Jowy > Decus > KOS-MOS > Demi > Max > Juan

Lin > Alice > Nash > Sara > FuSoYa > Ramsus

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Luca Blight (S2) vs Elc (AtLC) - Elc's resources, first-turn speed and durability are vastly superior to Arc's, which means he can win far more easily with Invincible spam. Not really a question.

Juan (S3) vs Max (SF1) - 2HKOs first on average, doesn't necessarily have to depending on dice rolls.

Sara (BoF1) vs FuSoYa (FF4) - I consider Sara to be faster than FuSoYa. Good fucking luck.

Pools!

Fou-Lu, Menardi, Kuja, Kefka, Arc, Luca

Fou-Lu sweeps, obvious enough. Kefka's the most interesting match, and I think Fou should be able to withstand -three fucking Havoc Wings- and 2HKO back without triggering doubleacts at worst. Kefka lolohkos the rest of these losers handily enough, on the other hand. Kuja, somehow, manages to eke wins against Arc and Luca - Arc fails to 2HKO him, Kuja 2HKOs him back with Flare Star while going first and Reflecting Arc spoils Invincible shenanigans. Luca... well, he's a victim of his own modus operandi, he needs all three turns to KO Kuja, who 2HKOs with ITD damage and will get at least one Flare Star counter in alongside his normal turn. Meanwhile, Arc outlasts Luca with intelligent Invincible usage.

Fou-Lu: 4-0
Kefka: 3-1
Kuja: 2-2
Arc: 1-3
Luca: 0-4

Jowy, Decus, Demi, KOS-MOS, Juan, Max

Jowy rules this pool, either by OHKOing people or 2HKOing and being able to finish the job otherwise. Juan smash everything else: he pretty much OHKOs Decus and may not get OHKOed anyway, Demi gets blitzed hardcore and he's too fast for KOS-MOS to be able to finish the job once she lands S-Chain. He already beat Max too. Demi spoils the hell out of Decus, fails to give half a fuck to KOS-MOS' S-Chain and probably just manages to outlast Max even if he 2HKOs her due to that speed difference, though a crit or double -might- say otherwise. KOS-MOS... well, she screws Max over just fine (possibly avoids even a 2HKO before her base evade kicks in, after S-Chain she just smashes), though Decus is stranger, not sure how I feel about him getting hit by S-Chain and she needs this to win. Meanwhile, Max just goes first and 2HKOs Decus fair and square. Decus ends up possibly dead last and holy -crap-.

Jowy: 5-0
Juan: 4-1
Demi: 3-2
Max: 2-3
KOS-MOS: 1-4?
Decus: 1-4?

Ramsus, Alice, Nash, Sara, FuSoYa

Well, let's start by stating the obvious: Ramsus -fails-. The only person he might even have a shot against, Nash, is faster than he is and just finishes off what he starts with BREATH OF ICE. lulz. Alice, Sara and FuSoYa all have magic and superior overall slugging (seriously, below average speed, below half PC HP and 4HKO damage?). Alice loses to everybody else (Nash just outlasts her SP easily, Sara does the same because Alice damage kinda sucks, FuSoYa statuses her ass). Nash... hm. Him vs. Sara is kinda strange. But I think he has the resources to outlast her, doesn't hurt his offense is actually solid and she just 3HKOs him. Fu statuses him out. Meanwhile, Sara already owned Fu.

Sara: 3-1
FuSoYa: 3-1 (wtffffffff)
Nash: 2-2
Alice: 1-3
Ramsus: 0-4 (lol)

[Monkeyfinger]

Godlike:

Ryu (BoF3) vs Piastol (SoA): 100% ID. Ryu3 can equip a sword which gives him 75% ID resistance but I don't see anything he can stack with that for full immunity, and I'd see him needing immunity to stop eternum.

Heavy:

Luca Blight (S2) vs Elc (AtLC): Elc is also quite a bit faster than arc (literally a 3-2 split) so he can start casting shit before getting attacked.

Middle:

Juan (S3) vs Max (SF1): Yellow scarves and such

Light:

Sara (BoF1) vs FuSoYa (FF4): FF4 speed is one of the more linear forms, since it doesn't include bullshit like bars that run to the end during long animations. So, Fu isn't fast enough here.

[Nephrite]

I think if you allow Storebought accessories, Ryu3 can get to 100% Death Resistance.

[Monkeyfinger]

I think if you allow Storebought accessories, Ryu3 can get to 100% Death Resistance.

The stat topic doesn't list any. Is there a specific one you're thinking of?

[superaielman]

Ryu 3, Piastol 2 (Neph tiebreak)
Elc>Luca
Max 4, Juan 3 (Neph tiebreak)
Sara>FuSoYa

Thanks to everyone who voted!



I'm most surprised by Middle. I didn't expect Max to win Middle. He's really good, just very 1-D.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Well, Max > Juan > (edit) Hahn doesn't really makes much sense (it says more about who voted each week, I think?), so he's kind of a weird champ in that regard.

[superaielman]

Pretty sure I'd see Max>Hahn, barring luck with ID hitting. Suppose that 1o with no itemcasting has issues there though.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Nah, you misunderstand. Max > Hahn is fine; however, Max > Juan and Juan > Hahn are two results I can't reconcile. (Pretty easy case of Yellow Scarf flipping both results.)

It'd be interesting if Juan had lost first round. Peppita would have then beaten Hahn and perhaps Justin (though that one's arguable). I guess Max does beat Justin too and has a decent case against Peppita, so it's not like he's an undeserving champ or anything.

[superaielman]

Peppita would beat Justin real bad. He doesn't have enough SP for that fight and she can block ID.  Max probably beats Justin. He might miss the 2HKO if Justin goes all out for defense or Justin might get lucky with ID... but I doubt either happens.  Peppita is a strict status respect check- she wins if it's turn one, loses otherwise.

That and the variety of people Max beat this season shows that he's a Heavy, and not a terrible one at that.

[Dark Holy Elf]

I think he's a pretty bad one. No status protection at all, average speed, pretty much always needs two turns to win, spoiled by decent evade or melee counters, etc. He does have nice durability (mostly physical) but that's about it. I do think he's good enough for the division, but I don't think it's a surprise he never did any damage there, nor would I expect him to.