Dragon (7) vs Athos (7)
Heavy
Hector (7) vs Rutger (6)
Uh, if I read the stat topic correctly, Hector's stats are taken with the Silver Axe, and Armads just makes his DEF insane - 15 points above average! A .33 PCHP subtractive damage reduction! Rutger only deals .35 PCHP damage pre-weapon triangle! Armads has better HIT than a Silver Axe, too
EDIT: Light Brand is randomly awesome? 'k then.
Middle
Henry (13) vs Tiki (11) - munch munch
Chrom (13) vs Vanessa (8)
First, a rant on accuracy & evasion: either you should scale both or neither. Scaling accuracy but then taking evasion literally results in a weird preference for evasion, where even characters from "high accuracy" games get owned by Lulu or Yuna evasion because their hit is only average in their home games, while Lulu / Yuna / Vanessa / etc. have similarly high base evasion yet evasion that isn't quite as impressive when compared to the evasion average. I actually am fine with scaling neither usually, hence entire casts that can be inaccurate or entire casts that can be accurate, entire casts that can be evasive (FE!), etc., but there are times when scaling both is fair. (Which Elf got at a bit earlier by reminding me that FE9/10 forging also raises the accuracy average when scaling both, or that Sothe's evade should be taken vs. average when facing a character like Garland in the Puny Cup since Garland's evade was calc'd vs. an average FF1 character.)
Anyway, Chrom wants you to "scale both" here, since he is a tad more accurate than average but still "only" 100% accuracy vs. endgame enemy evasion unpaired, while Vanessa is 50-53% evasion vs. an average of 25% evasion. This means that Chrom's hit pre-WTD is more like 75%, which is a much better place to be. Anyway... I think Chrom can just sit back and heal his way out of trouble here. If Vanessa throws Javelins, she runs out of Javelins before activating Pierce + crit I suspect, especially against Chrom's solidly good Luck. If she engages, she gets... hmm... around .36 PCHP damage in if no crits, .72 PCHP with 1 crit, and Chrom is dead off two crits. (Ignoring Pierce for now). Chrom heals .34 PCHP off Exalted Falchion. So Vanessa is waiting to trigger 2 crits total with a ~35% crit chance. (Okay, or a crit + 2 pierces perhaps.) Basically this probably happens by her third double if Chrom just spams healing. So Chrom heals turn 1, and might heal turn 2 if Vanessa still hasn't landed a crit, and then engages once Vanessa has landed a single crit. In the two turn case, that's counter+counter+regular attack. I suspect Chrom can kill with Exalted Falchion + Forged Silver Lance for the final hit, too (especially if the Silver Lance is forged for accuracy). So Chrom just needs to have 1/2 EF counters connect, or for Vanessa to have bad luck, or for Aether to kick in (chance independent of evasion, although the Aether hits can miss of course) vs. Vanessa's Pierce + Crit at the same time hype, or just plain getting 2 crits quickly. So yeah, another close match, but I suspect Chrom has this for the third match in a row where I vote (possibly fruitlessly) against Vanessa. Hey, they're all coinflips to a degree, so I can't complain too much.
Light
Serra (7) vs Lucius (7)
Heather (10) vs Innes (8)
Heather is pretty good for Light. Check out these knives, they counter archers and Heather should probably 4HKO = 2HKO with the doubling. Even if Innes manages the 2HKO and you see him as tanking 4x Heather knives somehow, they tie on threat range and he has an unlikely miss possibility while Heather doesn't.
