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Author Topic: Futurama 2014 Season 2, Week 1  (Read 2845 times)

Reiska

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Re: Futurama 2014 Season 2, Week 1
« Reply #25 on: July 31, 2014, 01:40:49 AM »
I don't have the free time during the week to do any more extensive math on the Cirno match, but if she keeps White Album's buff as high as possible for all of Justin's turns, he gets 36.25% of Cirno's HP off the first one and 12.08% off successive ones, meaning he needs 6 of them to kill.  Cirno has the SP to support this; Justin does not, so after 4 Lotus Cuts (after which Cirno has 27.51% HP remaining) he's stuck with his basic physicals.  You could argue he has a bit of a delay game with Critical, but even so, Critical against buffcapped Cirno is 2.44% HP a hit (and Combo is 3.25%).  The speed game has her getting somewhere between 2 and 3 turns to his one after she's debuffed his speed.  Icicle Fall applies Speed -50%, and debuffs decay the same way buffs do (20% of the debuff value at the start of the debuffed PC's turn), and cap at -50%.  By my interp it's closer to three, but two is enough to have White Album almost capped for Justin's second attack and permanently capped after that.  As for Cirno's SP depth, Icicle Fall is 20 SP and White Album is 36 SP, out of a maximum of 759, so she can maintain 13 cycles of alternating Icicle Fall and White Album before she runs out of SP.  At that point, she can spend a turn to recover 40 SP (but will no longer be able to maintain max defense buff).  For what it's worth, if Justin's using the ice resist armor, Icicle Fall's damage is around 6.26% (16HKO), so she will certainly run out of SP and need to use Focus.  I don't have the free time to do another exhaustive mathing, but she definitely has to play conservatively while Justin still has SP (in fact, it may be worth it for her to ignore offense/speed debuffs completely until he's burned his SP out, so as to reduce the damage of the second Lotus Cut more as she can't be buffcapped until the third).  If she White Albums her first two turns and doesn't start the debuff game until her turn 3, the second Lotus Cut does just under 4% HP less in damage.  I'm not entirely sure how this pans out, no time.  I'm pretty sure she (BARELY) takes it under my speed interp; as a *really* rough guess she needs something like 2.3-2.5 turns to Justin's 1 to pull it off, as she'll need to be able to do at least one string of Focus-Focus-White Album at some point (letting her def buff fall below cap is fatal if Justin gets a turn while it's not capped, period).  My interp sees it at around 2.8:1.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2014, 02:12:48 AM by Reiska »

Dhyerwolf

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Re: Futurama 2014 Season 2, Week 1
« Reply #26 on: July 31, 2014, 03:48:24 AM »
Wait, if Cirno is 110% speed, and the speed debuff caps out at 50% (which per the stat topic notes, but average speed at 66%), then statistically there will never be a triple turn. So if she needs to get 2.3 turns to Justin's 1 to win, it's not happening. But let's play this out a little and see how badly she falls behind.

Justin's base damage with Bonesplitter Axe with Lotus Cut is 880 (1636 against Cirno's Fire Defense). Cirno has the equivalent of 3,183 Grandia 1 enemy HP). Justin's basic physical is 440.  Justin is a hair below average, but is using an attack that may be a tad quick, so I'm calling him averagish for sanity.

Cirno 1: Buff
Justin 1: Does 1080 to Cirno
Cirno 2: Buff (I think she needs this, because it seems like speed down won't be enough here to double and she really needs to straight up to minimize the damage)
Justin 2: Either does 507 or uses normal attack (1216 total to Cirno)
Cirno 3: Attack (Let's say that this is just enough to double. (Justin is at 72.7% of a full bar at this point, which is to say that Cirno will not instant double).
Justin 3: Probably just uses a normal attack (1423 to Cirno) (Cirno is 45% of a full bar)
Cirno 4: Attack 2 of 16 needed to kill (Justin is at 37% of a bar, so she does double here)
Cirno 5: Buff (Justin is basically at 95% of a full bar)
Justin: 4: Attack (1520 to Cirno)
...
Okay at this point we have the following: Cirno needs another 14 attacks to kill with her damage.
Cirno is half dead basically.
Justin still has 3 Lotus Cuts
Justin has used his normal attack 3 times. Even with a view that is very, very, very strongly skewed against Justin, he needs 6 attacks.

Cirno needs to get in another 14 attacks, keep up her buffing in the interim, refresh SP at least once and prevent Justin from getting another 3 attacks. Unless the notes in the stat topic on her speed game are wrong, Cirno is long dead before she kills. Cirno practically almost dies from basic Grandia physicals (!!!!!!) before she manages to do Justin in.

...into the nightfall.

Reiska

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Re: Futurama 2014 Season 2, Week 1
« Reply #27 on: July 31, 2014, 04:41:46 AM »
Cirno's attacks are also faster than average, don't forget to account for that (I did at first, and it does matter). 

Explanation that abstracts things a bit: every attack in the game has a delay value, which is how much is subtracted from the CTB meter when the attack is used.  The rate at which the CTB meter fills is based on Speed, and LoT PC speed has stepwise diminishing returns at values above 200 (speed and charge rate have a 1:1 relationship up to 200 speed, then a 2:1 relationship from 201 to 300, then 3:1 from 301 to 400, and so on).   (LoT enemy speed does not have diminishing returns, and is always a 1:1 relation to CTB fill rate, so halving an enemy's speed makes their CTB take twice as long to fill.)  In practice, the net DL effect is not quite exactly half speed because of debuff decay; the debuff decays to -40% when Justin takes his turn, so until Cirno gets her next turn, he's filling CTB at that -40% rate, not -50%.

Every tick, all combatants' CTB is incremented by an amount based on speed (the increment amount is shown in the stat topic in brackets; for Cirno, it's 320), and when it reaches 10000 (or higher), the combatant gets to act.  Excess CTB over 10000 is lost, but is used for tiebreaks.  LoT average speed by the existing stat topic is 385, which works out to 278 CTB points per tick.  LoT PCs usually begin fights at 5000 CTB, so the average LoT PC gets their first turn after 18 ticks.  Cirno gets her first turn in 16 ticks.  (There are a few exceptions in boss fights IIRC)

The average attack delay given in the stat topic is 5934; thus, after using such an attack, the character's CTB meter will be at 4056 and will refill from there until it reaches 10000 again.  For an average speed PC, this happens in 22 ticks (21.34, have to round up given the nature of the system).  Icicle Fall and White Album both have delays of 5000, faster than the 5934 average; so after using them, Cirno only has to refill from 5000 (so she acts every 16 ticks). 

Therefore Cirno gets her first turn 11.1% faster than average, and her subsequent turns are 27.27% faster than average (with the attacks being used in this fight; Perfect Freeze is notably slower than average at 7500 and Diamond Blizzard is basically dead average at 6000).  [This is why Icicle Fall is her best damage despite being less damage per hit than Perfect Freeze.]

I'm frankly not sure how whoever wrote the LoT topic came up with the abstractions for speed debuffing (the 66% figure), but based on my own in-game experience it's closer to actually being 50% than that (but is not actually quite 50% in practice for the reasons stated above.  55% might be a decent abstraction, the true value depends a lot on the speed differential between the two combatants).  My best guess is that the 66% figure assumes that the target is another LoT PC (in which case that would be a lot closer to right: LoT Speed debuffs are less effective against LoT PCs due to the diminishing effect).  Interp issue, perhaps.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2014, 04:46:51 AM by Reiska »

Cmdr_King

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Re: Futurama 2014 Season 2, Week 1
« Reply #28 on: July 31, 2014, 10:48:25 PM »
Godlike

Aya Brea (Parasite Eve) vs Chaos (Final Fantasy)
Gongora (Lost Odyssey) vs Zeromus (Final Fantasy IV)- kneejerk marginally higher respect for Gongora's durability, and I THINK the net damage is similar.
Persephone (Wild ARMs 5) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI)
Morte (Sands of Destruction) vs Mewtwo (Pokémon)

Heavy

Pirate (Bravely Default) vs Tiki (Fire Emblem Series)
Ceodore (Final Fantasy IV: The After Years) vs Oerba dia Vanille (Final Fantasy XIII)
Elsa Eliane (Front Mission 4) vs Jude Maverick (Wild ARMs 4)- No vote.
(9) (Labyrinth of Touhou) vs Justin (Grandia)- No vote.

Middle

Jude Mathis (Tales of Xillia) vs Bowie (Shining Force II)- No vote.
Serperior (Pokémon) vs Nowi (Fire Emblem: Awakening)- The coil and let Leech Seed do the work strategy working is weird.  Oh well, damage isn't Nowi's thing.
Eclair (La Pucelle: Tactics) vs Lightning Farron (Final Fantasy XIII)
Ranger (Bravely Default)  vs Teddie (Persona 4)- Man only one person actually went with the "weak to anti-bear attacks" route :(

Light

Seneca (Suikoden Tactics) vs Archer (Final Fantasy Tactics)- You would think I"d have remembered Arrow Guard but noooo.
Amalthea (The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky) vs Rody (Suikoden III)
Elephant (Romancing SaGa 3)  vs Cyan Garamonde (Final Fantasy VI)- No vote.
Freelancer (Bravely Default) vs Rico (Suikoden III)
« Last Edit: August 02, 2014, 10:09:52 PM by Cmdr_King »
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Jo'ou Ranbu

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Re: Futurama 2014 Season 2, Week 1
« Reply #29 on: July 31, 2014, 11:35:47 PM »
Quote from: CK
Ranger (Bravely Default)  vs Teddie (Persona 4)- Man only one person actually went with the "weak to anti-bear attacks" route :(

Well...

Quote from: Ye Olde Stat Topick
Slayer* (8 MP): Regular physical attack. 2727 physical damage if species weakness hit.

Attack: 2917 physical damage

Considering it's actually slightly -detrimental- for Ranger to hit species weaknesses in comparison to just hitting A in the DL, you can hardly blame us.
[01:08] <Soppy-ReturningToInaba> HEY
[01:08] <Soppy-ReturningToInaba> LAGGY
[01:08] <Soppy-ReturningToInaba> UVIET?!??!?!
[01:08] <Laggy> YA!!!!!!!!!1111111111
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Pyro

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Re: Futurama 2014 Season 2, Week 1
« Reply #30 on: August 01, 2014, 02:34:53 AM »
BUT IT PUTS RANGER CLOSER TO A LIMIT!!!

Cmdr_King

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Re: Futurama 2014 Season 2, Week 1
« Reply #31 on: August 01, 2014, 03:07:56 AM »
Yes, I didn't expect Hype because that but still .  Also I can blame you for whatever I want dammit.
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<NotMiki> I mean, we're talking life vs. liberty, with the pursuit of happiness providing color commentary.

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Re: Futurama 2014 Season 2, Week 1
« Reply #32 on: August 02, 2014, 02:02:23 AM »
Godlike

Persephone (Wild ARMs 5) vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI) kneejerk wins the slugfest

Heavy

Elsa Eliane (Front Mission 4) vs Jude Maverick (Wild ARMs 4) Elsa rams into Judes good defense, which is compounded by high hits of (generally) low damage being the type of attack that WA4 defense mocks the most, Jude also kind of has an argument for hitting all of Elsa's parts for full damage rather then distributing it, fairly certain he can off her arms before she can chew through his pdur.


Middle

Ranger (Bravely Default)  vs Teddie (Persona 4) can burst through the healing handily enough.

Cmdr_King

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Re: Futurama 2014 Season 2, Week 1
« Reply #33 on: August 09, 2014, 09:15:11 AM »
Week 2 is still open!.  Just realized I hadn't counted these votes and would need them in a couple days.

Godlike

Aya Brea (Parasite Eve)- iiiiii vs Chaos (Final Fantasy)- ii
Gongora (Lost Odyssey)- ii vs Zeromus (Final Fantasy IV)
Persephone (Wild ARMs 5)- iiiiiiii vs Terra Branford (Final Fantasy VI)- ii
Morte (Sands of Destruction) vs Mewtwo (Pokémon)- iiii

Heavy

Pirate (Bravely Default) vs Tiki (Fire Emblem Series)- iiiiiii
Ceodore (Final Fantasy IV: The After Years) vs Oerba dia Vanille (Final Fantasy XIII)- iiiii
Elsa Eliane (Front Mission 4)- iiii vs Jude Maverick (Wild ARMs 4)- i
(9) (Labyrinth of Touhou)- ii vs Justin (Grandia)- i

Middle

Jude Mathis (Tales of Xillia)- ii vs Bowie (Shining Force II)
Serperior (Pokémon)- iiiiiii vs Nowi (Fire Emblem: Awakening)- i
Eclair (La Pucelle: Tactics)- i vs Lightning Farron (Final Fantasy XIII)- iii
Ranger (Bravely Default)- iiiiiiii  vs Teddie (Persona 4)

Light

Seneca (Suikoden Tactics)- i vs Archer (Final Fantasy Tactics)- iiiiiiiii
Amalthea (The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky)- iiiii vs Rody (Suikoden III)- i
Elephant (Romancing SaGa 3)  vs Cyan Garamonde (Final Fantasy VI)- ii
Freelancer (Bravely Default)- iiiiiiiii vs Rico (Suikoden III)
CK: She is the female you
Snow: Speaking of Sluts!

<NotMiki> I mean, we're talking life vs. liberty, with the pursuit of happiness providing color commentary.