Shift Tournament 2: Week 3- Can anyone stop Mojo's reign of terror?

[superaielman]

Orphan>Souji
Heat>Chris
Airy>Orlandu
Sephiroth>Ryu


Hilda 5, Tidus 3
Riou>Rayquaza
Tana>Cecilia
Sharon>Alicia

Rose 5, Odie 3
Adachi>Nash
Delita>Flay
Cordelia>Elena

Pepperoni>Lita
Nanaki>Teddie
Michiah>Kyle
Sophia>Spar


Kosanji>Mist Dragon
Mint>Nanami
Aeris>Celine
Arthur>Gato



Godlike:

Uryu (MK2) vs Yulyana (BD)
Orlouge (Saga) vs Elc (AtL2)
Orphan (FF13) vs Heat (DDS2)
Airy (BD) vs Sephiroth (FF7)

High Heavy:

Arc (AtL2) vs Hugo (S3)
Claude Kenni (SO2) vs White Fiend (Lunar:EBC)
Hildagarde Valentine (SH3) vs Riou (S2)
Tana (FE8) vs Sharon (LoL2)


Low Heavy:

Etward Dysler (MK2) vs Pamela Ibis (MK1)
Heinkel (BD) vs Lilka Eleniak (WA2)
Rose (LoD) vs Tohru Adachi (Pers4)
Delita Hyral (FFT) vs Cordelia (FE13)

Middle:

Jeane (Suikos) vs Vivi Ornitier (FF9)
Palom (FF4)  vs Bart Fatima (XG)
Pepperoni (MK2)  vs Nanaki (FF7)
Michiah (FE13) vs Sophia (SO3)


Division of Snow:

Kelvena (XG) vs Mojo (CC)
Allen Ridgley (XS3) vs Maribelle (FE13)
Kosanji (S3) vs Mint Adenade (ToP)
Aeris Gainsbourgh (FF7) vs Arthur (SF1)

[superaielman]

Godlike:

Orlouge (Saga) vsElc (AtL2)- Orlouge has no answer for Invincible.
Orphan (FF13) vs Heat (DDS2)- Think so? Orphan had a lot of MT IIRC.
Airy (BD) vs Sephiroth (FF7)- She's not far from a OHKO and I doubt Sephiroth can blitz her down in time.

High Heavy:

Arc (AtL2) vs Hugo (S3)- It's possible the Brave Crest could tip things, but my first kneejerk is that Hugo can run Arc out of MP. The threat of funeral wind means Arc does need to keep Invincible up, and Healing Wind curing status means he's having to constantly reapply Weak Enemy to make any headway.
Claude Kenni (SO2) vs White Fiend (Lunar:EBC)-Halving ice is enough here I think; WF needs time to set up his nasty damage.
Hildagarde Valentine (SH3) vs Riou (S2)-KaBOOM.
Tana (FE8) vs Sharon (LoL2)-Depends entirely on Sharon's ability to smash on turn 2. Abstain for now.- E: Kneejerk.


Low Heavy:

Etward Dysler (MK2) vs Pamela Ibis (MK1)- Bye Et!
Rose (LoD) vs Tohru Adachi (Pers4)- This is normally the type of match Odie crushes and Adachi struggles in, but oh god. Adachi is a ranged/gunner type to me which is Odie's worst match. This gets ugly fast. E: Oh Rose won. Mmm. I'm sticking with Adachi, he walls too much of her skillset. Rose can block Fear but her draining is out here to me which is really bad and she's hitting Adachi's good defensive stat to boot.
Delita Hyral (FFT) vs Cordelia (FE13)- Blitzes down.

Middle:

Jeane (Suikos) vs Vivi Ornitier (FF9)- Elemental walling.
Palom (FF4)  vs Bart Fatima (XG)- Bart vs Mage.
Pepperoni (MK2)  vs Nanaki (FF7)- Speed difference.
Michiah (FE13) vs Sophia (SO3)- NOPE


Division of Snow:

Kelvena (XG) vs Mojo (CC)- Elements had appallingly bad durability, which Mojo can almost take advantage of. It's enough.
Allen Ridgley (XS3) vs Maribelle (FE13)- oooh Elfboy!
Aeris Gainsbourgh (FF7) vs Arthur (SF1)- Aeris is more competent at offense. That be real sad.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike:

Uryu (MK2) vs Yulyana (BD): Hmm. Gatespam makes Meteor unfocus and Uryu does have notably better durability to me, although notably worse damage at base... and notably better speed. I may look at this more closely later, but strong kneejerk for the one who doesn't suck in-game.
Orphan (FF13) vs Heat (DDS2): Later. Need to look at exactly how much damage Orphan can squeeze out of multiacts and the like, since his base speed is unimpressive so even having MT may not be enough. EDIT: Yeah the orb multiacts are just too weak, see analysis posted later.
Airy (BD) vs Sephiroth (FF7): Don't think Seph going for Wall is really that useful with Acedia in the mix, although could be worth it? Aside from that Airy durability is too much better.

High Heavy:

Claude Kenni (SO2) vs White Fiend (Lunar:EBC): Energy Sword isn't an option since WF's best damage has sleep attached. Aside from that, WF is faster and still has a 4HKO, and Claude doesn't 3HKO even if I don't assign any sort of recharge penalty for Mirror Slice and use the lower average.
Hildagarde Valentine (SH3) vs Riou (S2): This is why Hilda vs. Tidus wasn't worth stressing about too much: the winner gets to eat Forgiver Sign to the face.
Tana (FE8) vs Sharon (LoL2): Later. EDIT: I see no reason to disagree with Snow.


Low Heavy:

Etward Dysler (MK2) vs Pamela Ibis (MK1): snore
Heinkel (BD) vs Lilka Eleniak (WA2): Don't think Heinkel was scary at all above half health, that is the type of boss Lilka eats for breakfast.
Delita Hyral (FFT) vs Cordelia (FE13): I'll get back to you on this. EDIT: To win Delita pretty much needs to go first. I'm not sure what I think about that. Both two-round each other. Cordelia does have something to make me favour her: a Javelin counter would let her win in one turn, if Delita goes first. I'm not sure what I think about counters versus tiny area of effects like Lightning Stab/Holy Explosion, but Cordelia is helped out by the fact that Delita sometimes doesn't even have either in-game. Works as a tiebreak since I'm not really sure where I see Delita's speed.

Middle:

Jeane (Suikos) vs Vivi Ornitier (FF9): Nulls lightning.
Palom (FF4)  vs Bart Fatima (XG)
Pepperoni (MK2) vs Nanaki (FF7): Kneejerk Pepperoni, couldn't he back-end his damage really well?
Michiah (FE13) vs Sophia (SO3): Uh well magical status against Micaiah isn't working ever (Nel would take this easily!) so from there I actually need to look at Sophia's skillset to figure this one out. EDIT: Oh right Nosferatu being unbreakable + Micaiah's status protection means she can't lose. Sophia may need to run out of resources but yeah.

Division of Snow:

Kelvena (XG) vs Mojo (CC): Mojo might fail to OHKO but uh he's not being outslugged nor is he bothered by her healing.
Allen Ridgley (XS3) vs Maribelle (FE13): It remains the DL's greatest failing that we don't have proper Allen stats. Anyway I can't imagine that less than half average ST damage scares her but he might be able to wall her with healing? Eh, doubt it, I don't recall that healing being much good.
Aeris Gainsbourgh (FF7) vs Arthur (SF1): Arthur is bad.

[Dhyerwolf]

Umm...I just realized I was dumb and meant to vote for Rose over Odie.

[superaielman]

I changed it.

[Random Consonant]

Godlike:

Uryu (MK2) vs Yulyana (BD) - Probably.  It's possible Yulyana could get lucky but I doubt he gets lucky enough.
Orlouge (Saga) vs Elc (AtL2)
Airy (BD) vs Sephiroth (FF7) - lol

High Heavy:

Arc (AtL2) vs Hugo (S3) - Arc probably under a bit too much pressure.
Claude Kenni (SO2) vs White Fiend (Lunar:EBC)
Hildagarde Valentine (SH3) vs Riou (S2) - Yep.

Low Heavy:

Etward Dysler (MK2) vs Pamela Ibis (MK1) - Et has no elemental physicals so lol.
Heinkel (BD) vs Lilka Eleniak (WA2) - Yep.
Rose (LoD) vs Tohru Adachi (Pers4) - As usual no respect for P4 bosses getting to null light/dark damage, and while her magic damage isn't great here it's probably enough to let her stick the 3HKO against here to me.
Delita Hyral (FFT) vs Cordelia (FE13) - Shouldn't be missing enough to screw up the two-rounding.

Middle:

Jeane (Suikos) vs Vivi Ornitier (FF9)
Palom (FF4) vs Bart Fatima (XG)
Pepperoni (MK2) vs Nanaki (FF7) - uh probably

Division of Snow:

Kelvena (XG) vs Mojo (CC)
Kosanji (S3) vs Mint Adenade (ToP)
Aeris Gainsbourgh (FF7) vs Arthur (SF1)

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike:

Uryu (MK2) vs Yulyana (BD)
Orlouge (Saga) vs Elc (AtL2)- Orlouge starts slow and isn't particularly durable and doesn't have any healing (Correct?). Seems like this is the type of match that plays to Elc's strengths.
Orphan (FF13) vs Heat (DDS2)
Airy (BD) vs Sephiroth (FF7)

High Heavy:

Arc (AtL2) vs Hugo (S3)- Arc chooses to block Sleep, but yeah, I think that Hugo should have enough healing coupled with evade to make this work. I might match it out later to be sure.
Claude Kenni (SO2) vs White Fiend (Lunar:EBC)- White Fiend has 2.45 PC HP Pdur at best to me, which...means that Claude 3HKOs with two Ripper Blasts (.81 PC HP) and a Mirror Slice to finish off. White Fiend can't do any better than 4HKO I believe and Sleep doesn't hit until turn 4 anyways.
Hildagarde Valentine (SH3) vs Riou (S2)
Tana (FE8) vs Sharon (LoL2)- Sharon will live to see the MA to me since Tana doesn't 2HKO average (so she won't OHKO Sharon)

Low Heavy:

Etward Dysler (MK2) vs Pamela Ibis (MK1)
Heinkel (BD) vs Lilka Eleniak (WA2)
Rose (LoD) vs Tohru Adachi (Pers4)- Odie would have crushed this, but Rose has no chance at all. Yay for SP allowing being the more dominant view now though!
Delita Hyral (FFT) vs Cordelia (FE13)- Delita wants to be above average speed here. Each 2HKO, Cordelia is faster

Middle:

Jeane (Suikos) vs Vivi Ornitier (FF9)
Palom (FF4)  vs Bart Fatima (XG)
Pepperoni (MK2)  vs Nanaki (FF7)
Michiah (FE13) vs Sophia (SO3)- Yeah, that status is going to eventually get there because Micaiah isn't very good at killing Sophia post magic halving. Even a shitty Healing spell for Sophia will probably be about 40% healing, which is more like 80% of Sophia's HP with the magic halving thrown in. May math this out later to be sure.


Division of Snow:

Kelvena (XG) vs Mojo (CC)
Kosanji (S3) vs Mint Adenade (ToP)
Aeris Gainsbourgh (FF7) vs Arthur (SF1)

[SnowFire]

Airy (BD) vs Sephiroth (FF7)

High Heavy:

Claude Kenni (SO2) vs White Fiend (Lunar:EBC)
This is one of those "scale against party members" things as even disrespecting Claude damage like I do he 3HKOs with room to spare here and halves water.
Hildagarde Valentine (SH3) vs Riou (S2)

Low Heavy:

Heinkel (BD) vs Lilka Eleniak (WA2)
Well Stomp ignores evasion, and Lilka can't buff or double up on her Thunder damage, and even Thunder L2 + Saber isn't actually THAT amazing on damage, so if Heinkel is seen as durable enough he can plausibly take this, but yeah.
Delita Hyral (FFT) vs Cordelia (FE13)
I don't have a good grasp on guest Delita's speed but it doesn't face Thief Hats at least...  but to the extent that FFT shields get credit, they get way less credit against enemies with excellent move in their home strat RPG, and they especially get less credit when they're AI controlled so they won't intelligently stick their back against a wall or the like.

Middle:

Jeane (Suikos) vs Vivi Ornitier (FF9)
Palom (FF4) vs Bart Fatima (XG)
grumble grumble status something
Michiah (FE13) vs Sophia (SO3)
Well Sophia would win against E-2 Micaiah or thereabouts by just stalling and breaking Micaiah's weapon, but I guess blessed weapon hype or something.  Not sure how Sophia can ever win against that.  Micaiah is *17 points* above average on Resistance, so status is at a -85% odds against par, aka a 0% hit rate on basically everything.  (Possibly gets even worse if you punish Sophia for standing still as she casts and letting Micaiah back off some to increase the distance, too.)

Division of Snow:

Kelvena (XG) vs Mojo (CC)
No.
Allen Ridgley (XS3) vs Maribelle (FE13)
Counterattacks are pretty big here, I imagine.

[SnowFire]

From chat: turns out Lilka can cast 2 Thunder L2s back to back no problem.  (It's just Thudner L1->L2 that gets a weak MT spell).  Also Heinkel KOing with 2x Stomp is shakier than I thought, so that match is a bit clearer than I claimed before.

[superaielman]

Delita is going to be below average speed no matter what, Snowfire. He has the default speed, which is below average due to faster classes/whatever speed boosting gear you factor in.

[SnowFire]

Delita's speed is 9 in his final Guest appearance and you don't have Orlandu yet.  (EDIT: I think...?  Listed as 9 in the stat topic and don't think he loses a point from delevling, but not sure on second thought.)  The endgame generics average with lots of the generic cast wearing Thief Hats is 9.4.  Delita should be around average speed, and possibly even a tad above (Mime & Calculator are dragging down the average some and they're questionable to include).

That said it doesn't particularly matter as even if Delita ends up as 102% ATB speed, that's close enough to average I'd still use a movement / threat range tiebreak, which Cordelia should win, even with Lightning Stab's nice range.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Delita's exact speed stat will vary by what level you are when you do that fight, but if it's 9 you're overlevelled as he needs to be Level 38 for that (I've had him be 7 more often than 9, definitely). Assuming your level is more like 25-30, he's going to be 8 speed compared to an average in which base speed will be 7 for most jobs and 8 for Monk/Thief/Priest/Ninja/Mustadio/Rafa/Malak, with Ninja possibly 9 and Summoner possibly 6. Of course Green Berets exist (+1 Spd) and are one of ~4 reasonable options for hat-users at this point, and Sprint Shoes are one of the better accessories. Take that as you will. Guests do win tiebreaks with enemies, which is a contrast to PCs losing them, so that's something.

In summary Delita's speed is a headache but is pretty reasonable to see on either side of average. Shouldn't be too far from it regardless.

[superaielman]

Delita is Priest speed? Huh, thought he had Knight speed. I still would see him below average (Speed boosting gear is good in FFT and so are high speed classes) but that does help him.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Uryu (MK2) vs Sage Yulyana (BD) - sure why not
Orlouge (Saga) vs Elc (AtL2) - Oh wow. In spite of his gargantuan skillset, Orlouge just didn't bother to pack any sort of dispel in the middle. Elc just cruises here, being faster first turn and all.
Orphan (FF13) vs Heat (DDS2) - EDIT: In doubt, I trust Elfboy's analysis here.
Airy (BD) vs Sephiroth (FF7) - I think I voted this way before. Regardless, Sephiroth can't even quite -3HKO- Airy to me and Acedia => Zeta Flare OHKO his ass.

Arc Eda Ricolne (AtL2) vs Hugo (S3) - Well, problem here is Arc needs to spend oodles of MP on Invincible no matter what he chooses to block (Hugo is faster with his physical and 2HKOs him, for starters, and picking blockers only makes it worse) and he has serious problems making any sort of damage stick (evade, bad magical offense that eats into Invincible resources). Weak Enemy -could- help, but also gets into the same problems as everything else does (eating into resources he can hardly spare, mainly, though only lasting three turns and being irrelevant as a speed buster doesn't help either)... and Arc just can't afford to use anything not named Invincible here, lest he wants to die to Funeral Wind of all things. I mean, he -might- be able to scrape a win, but that's not a good place for him to be.
Hildagarde Valentine (SH3) vs Riou (S2) - Well, there goes this season.
Tana (FE8) vs Sharon (LoL2) - EDIT: Sharon, using the avg + 7*log2 (CTB) formula, is 2.94 FE8 AS above average. Tana is uh +8 AS above average. Yeah, she doubles. This said, Tana ain't entirely out of the woods yet, since Sharon has decent evade and Tana accuracy is no great shakes... but she can chip with a Slim Lance in this case. And since Sharon only 3HKOs before evade if she uses magic, I suppose this is giving Tana a lot of time. Feels like the odds favor her here.

Etward Dysler (MK2) vs Pamela Ibis (MK1) - sigh
Argent Heinkel (BD) vs Lilka Eleniak (WA2) - Man, how does Lilka ever -lose- this? Argent can't OHKO her with the Brave string and nothing else he does remotely scares her. This is the kind of fight she wins with a hand tied behind her back.
Rose (LoD) vs Tohru Adachi (Pers4) - Yeah, I'm with Random here.
Delita Hyral (FFT) vs Cordelia (FE13) - Evade aside, I'm more inclined to see Delita as below average speed than above, and WTA on Cordy -should- mitigate the evade issues a bit.

Jeane (Suikos) vs Vivi Ornitier (FF9) - Nonsense.
Palom (FF4)  vs Bartholomew Fatima (XG) - Maaaaaaaaaaaaaagic.
Pepperoncino (MK2) vs Nanaki (FF7) - I suppose Pepperoni has the pdur and damage control for this.

Kelvena (XG) vs Mojo (CC) - oh lord
Allen Ridgeley (XS3) vs Maribelle (FE13) - jmkldjgshfr
Kosanji (S3) vs Mint Adenade (ToP) - THIS MIGHT BE DIFFERENT IF KOSANJI COULD EQUIP A CHIEF'S HAT
Aeris Gainsborough (FF7) vs Arthur (SF1) - Arthur's appalingly bad.

[SnowFire]

Argent Heinkel (BD) vs Lilka Eleniak (WA2) - Man, how does Lilka ever -lose- this? Argent can't OHKO her with the Brave string and nothing else he does remotely scares her. This is the kind of fight she wins with a hand tied behind her back.

Well, Pyro's topic has 2x Stomp as .83 PCHP, and I seem to recall generally kneejerking level as a bit lower than Pyro did (Profiteur absolutely had a KO on everyone with 2x Takeover, for example).  I'm willing to go with Normal damage figures but would definitely use lower levels if we're using Normal rather than Hard, so the damage is arguably a bit better than that.  Additionally WA2 defense is a thing so even hyping Lilka maxing her defense, it's questionable as to how much that'd matter.  Lilka has .85-.89 PCHP, so if Heinkel misses the OHKO, it's close.  (At least for me.)

Of course Heinkel needs to both OHKO *and* not die to 3x Lilka spells when she blitzes on a double, and he fails at both, so it definitely is a loss, but it isn't a "lolzobv" fight to me.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

I kneejerk the early levels as a bit higher than Pyro, on the other hand (and, on Normal, I might even argue that the case for them being higher is better than being lower, since they strain your resources less and you have less reason to turn off randoms etc, which I feel compounds further longer-term than grinding does). Bringing Profiteur is also a bit of a thing because there's a somewhat wide range in which he can be fought first (he one-rounded with Takeover x2 before doing the Jackal's dungeon, didn't after). And uh yeah, Dualcast + Thunder weakness -does- let Lilka just entirely bypass Argent's limit range anyway. For some reason, I thought he couldn't use Stomp x2, which led me to think this was even more one-sided than it is.

[Pyro]

She can also debuff his resistance before the limit range smashing. Just for that little bit extra.

Wouldn Weak Enemy'd Hugo have a serious problem landing any kind of ID or status?

[Dark Holy Elf]

WA2 defence is bad but not that bad, at least not when we're talking 999. That should cut off 500+ damage from every attack, which is well over a 25% reduction by any reasonable scaling. So if Lilka's 0.85 PCHP that still gets her pdur to 113% minimum (probably closer to 120%?). "lol" applies to levels making Heinkel one-round that.


I presume Hugo washes off Weak Enemy with Healing Wind right before Invincible wears off?

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Yeah, that's the thing: Healing Wind answers Weak Enemy very well even if it doesn't heal the debuffs (no idea how I see those things interacting), and the debuffing only lasts three turns. Meanwhile, Arc himself has issues making damage stick and he gets 2HKOed at base (below average durability across the board).

EDIT: The MP-reasonable Invincible loop also lets him make nearly no leeway with anything: Get hit => Invincible => dawdle => Weak Enemy =>dawdle WE turn 1 => recast Invincible = dawdle WE turn 2 => whatever => Healing Wind if necessary under WE turn 3 (though Arc damage with magic sucks, so likely not) => recast Invincible => Weak Enemy ran out. Even with the Brave Crest to regen his MP (which he may have to give up in order to equip the sleep blocker, otherwise he explodes to WoS => Attack x2), he already wasted about half his MP and all he managed to do was make Hugo spend a single charge of Healing Wind... and he's still at death's door, since you can't heal under Invincible unless you're casting Divide or Rob Mind. Using L3 Invincible is downright suicide as well, that alone's worth over half Arc's MP reserves.

Also, not sure magic on the -caster's- end influences status odds in AtL2. Dhyer noted them as mostly rather constant across the board and there are -huge- disparities between the game's magical status users (compare the Magic between Sania, Shante and Tosh, for instance. And all of them have roughly the same hit rate on their status). The only notable disparity seems to come from Diekbeck, who's permanently L1, and level differences also play a notable factor in AtL2's accuracy formulae in general when the gap is as huge as L1 => L100 or whatever Dhyer used for his baseline (i.e. see why Diek can't hit the broad side of a barn with his physical).

[Dhyerwolf]

Actually, the one big boon Weak Enemy might have is that is does lower enemy evasion...but I'm not sure to what level (since it was playing a few hours of the game a year ago that made me realize that evade is tied to Speed). Since it's indeterminate, I wouldn't give it enough credit to tip this. If it was good though, it could make things pretty dangerous for Hugo potentially. Just...Arc needs to run Hugo out of 5 healing charges, and even with the MP restoration from Brave Crest, Arc is running at a deficit pretty quickly.

[Pyro]

Arc and Hugo might trade turns applying and removing weak enemy?

Hugo: thwack.
Arc: Weak Enemy
Arc: heal
Hugo: Healing Wind
Hugo: thwack

Repeat and throw in Invincible L1 to avoid a double if needed? Funeral Wind was really slow, so it should never come off if not under Weak enemy...

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

I'm very skeptical of giving Arc credit for speed busting considering how useless it is in-game. -Nonetheless-, if Arc uses Weak Enemy instead of Invincible first turn (or spends turns not under Invincible in general), Hugo just answers with Funeral Wind and Arc uh dies anyway. I mean, Funeral Wind -indeed- is very slow, effectively ramming the SD cap to me, but it's 3-2'd by average speed still even under conventions like mine (and if you see it stacking with WE speed busting, which is questionable in more ways than one, given how S3 magic charge times aren't tied to Speed while physical intervals, even if under a neutered effect due to Swing and weapon weight, still are to a degree, it just rams the SD cap further, which... uh... I know nobody who uses a cap where someone gets instadoubled by average speed), not instadoubled. So Arc would have problems getting that to work regardless. If he could afford to go non-Invincible at any point, that trade likely would work, but that's not the case.

[Pyro]

But if Hugo tries to use Funeral Wind under Weak Enemy it would just fail miserably?

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

AtL2 itself does not provide any evidence that caster magic affects status odds (if anything, it points towards the other direction at a glance), thus it should -not- affect Funeral Wind's accuracy. I already addressed that. If it did, Arc would be out of the woods, of course, OPB move and all.

[Dhyerwolf]

Oh, it does have an effect...but I suspect that perhaps at a certain point (which basically all the PCs cross), it stops mattering. Well, I should say except all PCs but 1 cross (that one being Diekbeck base, which is how I know if how it has an effect). I suspect that it matters more for enemies (I'm thinking that it's a Magic vs Magic check, and the PCs are generally higher on magic than enemies). Granted, it's been...forever since that topic was made, and I certainly remember some weirdness cropping up around status accuracy then. So long story short: it does have an effect which isn't potent on the PC attacking side, but could push FW to turn 2 (or could not!).