Fight of the week is definitely Pokemon vs. Lunar 2. I actually think people who aren't Snow are voting the wrong way on this one, but it is pretty close!
First of all, the turn order: Exeggutor > Jean > Groudon > Hiro. Standard deviations make this pretty clear. I'm going to ignore doubleturns from here on; obviously they will only help Pokemon if you consider them.
Now, Exeggutor goes first and opens with 75% sleep on someone. Initially I figured stopping Hiro was more important, since he has MT, but I was wrong: Jean is the target, because getting Groudon at least one turn is so important. So Exeggutor uses sleep on Jean, Groudon goes next and has MT 2HKO to both (even with a 25% damage cut due to being MT, Eruption is pretty mean, doing 58% to average, which 2HKOs both Hiro and Jean soundly enough (Hiro is like 110% magic durability, Jean is worse).
Hiro, of course, uses Concussion Sword, trying to ID both of them. It's 50% against each, so there are four equally probable outcomes to this attack. Let's take a look at what happens in each case.
Both pokemon survive: Exeggutor finishes off Jean (thanks to sun, he has an instant 2HKO with Solarbeam as well), Groudon finishes off Hiro. Obvious, 100% victory.
Only Groudon survives: Jean has a 1/4 chance to wake up on her second turn sleeping, and a 1/2 chance of landing a fatal status on Groudon, winning the fight for her team. If this 1/8 chance does not kick in, Groudon gets the next turn and finishes the MT 2HKO. 87.5% chance of Pokemon victory.
Only Exeggutor survives: Exeggutor uses Solarbeam to finish off Hiro. Then, once again, Jean has a 1/8 chance to both wake up and land a fatal status on Exeggutor. If she does not, Exeggutor goes again and finishes her. Once again, 87.5% chance of Pokemon victory.
Both pokemon die: Team Lunar just won, 0% chance of Pokemon victory. (Duh.)
So, if that initial Sleep Powder lands, Pokemon has a 25%*100% + 25%*87.5% + 25%*87.5% + 25%*0% = 68.75% chance of winning.
If the initial sleep powder misses, then Team Pokemon is in a lot of trouble. They could still win, as Lunar isn't winning this with raw damage, so of course if Lunar goes on to have bad luck with their own status, Pokemon will steal the win back. However, it doesn't matter. Even if we assume that the first sleep powder missing means 100% chance of Lunar victory, that still leaves Pokemon with a 75%*68.75% = 51.6% chance of victory. The actual number is probably closer to 55%. It's a slight edge, but it's one they have.
Since both sides are relying on status to win here, I'm fine with siding with the team that wins over half the time. You could let various defences muck with status hit rates here, but given that Jean has bad magic defence and Concussion Sword is likely physical (and both pokemon have high physical defence) that seems unlikely to tilt things Lunar's way. It is close though!
Raquel Applegate and Arnaud G. Vasquez (Wild ARMs 4) vs Wren and Demi (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millennium): Phonon + Burst Rockets should kill Arnaud. The good news for Arnaud is that I do see his stat downs working just fine, here: his work on everything in WA4, while loads of things immune PS4's stat downs, so I take that as meaning PS4's stat downs suck. Unfortunately for him I do see the WA4 techs as ITE, so he dies to the MT physical blitz, and Raquel isn't soloing even after Arnaud lands Slow Down on one of them.
Robo and Ayla (Chrono Trigger) vs Freyjadour and Lyon (Suikoden V): Traditionally the best way to win Heavy 2v2 is to have loads of fast MT damage. Freyjadour isn't that fast, but uh Lyon may well just OHKO here anyway, and since Freyja is faster than Robo it doesn't matter regardless.
Groudon and Exeggcutor (Pokémon) vs Hiro and Jean (Lunar 2: Eternal Blue): See above.
Riou and Jowy (Suikoden II) vs Cthulhu and Umi (Cthulhu Saves the World): Remember what I said about fast MT damage? Okay, Riou's isn't MT, it's just "kill one opponent not immune to holy". Which when Jowy often OHKOs people anyway...
