Nerf League: Week 2

[SnowFire]

The valkyrie carefully looked at the beautiful new Berserker Bow that Genevieve had dropped before running off to the Sanctum of the Punies.  Custom made, elementally etched wood, the usual ludicrous rate of fire that mortals would be envious of...  there was no question.  She simply must wield it right now.  Soon, she'd -

"All artifacts are the rightful property of St. Eva.  Return it or Evaluation Level will drop."

Habaruku just had to butt in, didn't he?  Lenneth psychically responded "We'll see about that.  I'm on my way to see him right now, actually."

---

Week 1 will remain open for a bit more if you want to get in last-second edits / votes.

Godlike

Light Tyrant Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Valefor Fangirl Yuna (FFX)
Penultimate Terra (FF6) vs. Izanami 2 (P4)
Discriminating Loki (VP) vs. Frue Final Jenna Angel (DDS)
Pre-Rogue Blue (Saga Frontier) vs. Belial needs a new tailor (WA4)

Heavy

Bow Lenneth (VP) vs. DeathlessEvans (BoF2)
Decressed Lilka (WA2) vs. Unglitched Lucian (VP)
Unholy Rosa (FF4) vs. Just Guv (DQ8)
B-Ending Yuri (SH) vs. Pauper Orlandu (FFT)
Flame Champion Chris (S3) vs. White Mage Ryu (BoF3)
Windy Hugo (S3) vs. Showboat Raquel (WA4)

Middle

ALICIA JEEEENKINS (VP2) vs. Bright Knight (BD)
Noa w/ bad makeup (LoL) vs. Bro Tidus (FFX)
Kyra Eleison (PS4) vs. Single Sword Hiro (L2)
Lonely Reyva (SN) vs. Decloaked Poo (EB)
Rune Walsh, proper magician (PS4) vs. Human Millenia (G2)
Cecilia (WAACF) vs. Asleep Johnny Garland (SH3)

Light

Red-Eyed Dragoon Dart (LoD) vs. Odoryuk Yulie (WA4)
Izanagi Fanboy Yu Nakurami (P4) vs. Magicless Marle (CT)
Meme Sabin (FF6) vs. Straight & Narrow Aika (SoA)
Busted Cloud (FF7) vs. Democratic Caineghis (FE10)
Selfish Clarissa (WAXF) vs. Limiter Elly (XG)
ElfChallenge Arnaud (WA4) vs. Waterbottle Gobi (BoF1)

Puny

"I quit. -Whim" Lily (MK2) vs. C6 Genevieve (VP)
Struggling Mew (Pokemon) vs. SuperBlackAielWizard (FF1DoS)
Grounded Ulki (FE10) vs. Magical Kongol (LoD)
1v1mebro Soren (FE9) vs. Quiet Qristo (DQ4)

[SnowFire]

Limitations list.

Light Tyrant Fou-Lu (BoF4) - Tyrant form, no Dark Wave
Valefor Fangirl Yuna (FFX) - All non-Valefor Aeons prohibited
Penultimate Terra (FF6) - No Drain nor Ultima
Izanami 2 (P4) - Starts on Form 2
Discriminating Loki (VP) - No Indiscriminate
Frue Final Jenna Angel (DDS) - Starts on Form 3
Pre-Rogue Blue (Saga Frontier) - Pre-Rogue duel, no Rune.
Belial needs a new tailor (WA4) - No 4D Pocket.

Heavy

DeathlessEvans (BoF2) - No Death.
Decressed Lilka (WA2) - No crest modification.
Unglitched Lucian (VP) - No Shining Bolt button spam glitch.
Unholy Rosa (FF4) - No Holy.
Just Guv (DQ8) - No Call Team, no Dragon Soul.
B-Ending Yuri (SH) - No Amon, no Seraphic Radiance.
Pauper Orlandu (FFT) - No Excalibur.
Flame Champion Chris (S3) - True Fire + Phoenix runes.
White Mage Ryu (BoF3) - No Bonebreak nor Accession.
Windy Hugo (S3) - No True Fire (borrowed by Chris).
Showboat Raquel (WA4) - No basic attacks.

Middle

ALICIA JEEEENKINS (VP2) - Equipped: Dragon Rib, Bloody Patch. Begins w/ 19% max HP.  No menu magic. 
Bright Knight (BD) - Dark Knight, no dark-elemental attacks.
Noa w/ bad makeup (LoL) - Can't inflict charm.
Bro Tidus (FFX) - Locked to Brotherhood.
Kyra Eleison (PS4) - No healing.
Single Sword Hiro (L2) - No Triple Sword.
Lonely Reyva (SN) - No Summons / Rooms / etc.
Decloaked Poo (EB) - No Cloak of Kings.
Rune Walsh, proper magician (PS4) - Equipped w/ staff.
Human Millenia (G2) - No Valmar skills.
Asleep Johnny Garland (SH3) - No Ether Purge / Purgatory stuff.

Light

Red-Eyed Dragoon Dart (LoD) - Fire Dragoon [no Divine Dragoon].
Odoryuk Yulie (WA4) - No Heal or Hi-Heal.
Izanagi Fanboy Yu Nakurami (P4) - Locked to Izanagi Persona.
Magicless Marle (CT) - No starred / Spekkio spells.
Meme Sabin (FF6) - https://youtu.be/2u84cH_bmTA?t=21s
Straight & Narrow Aika (SoA) - No Swirlmarang.
Busted Cloud (FF7) - Locked to Buster Sword.
Democratic Caineghis (FE10) - No free Formshift (e.g. like Giffca), no starting gauge, no items.
Selfish Clarissa (WAXF) - No Sacrifice.
Limiter Elly (XG) - No Dream Rod, no Hyper Deathblows.
ElfChallenge Arnaud (WA4) - Locked initial equipment, no Slow Down
Waterbottle Gobi (BoF1) - Always underwater, no basic attacks.

Puny

"I quit. -Whim" Lily (MK2) - Basic attacks only.
Struggling Mew (Pokemon) - Moveset:  [Substitute, Bulk Up, Barrier, Roost].  Use Gen4/5/6.
SuperBlackAielWizard (FF1DoS) - No attack magic / enemy status
Grounded Ulki (FE10) - No starting gauge, no items.
Magical Kongol (LoD) - Magic only.  Starts w/ 500 SP.
1v1mebro Soren (FE9) - Locked to Daggers.
Quiet Qristo (DQ4) - Auto-Silenced.

[Random Consonant]

Godlike

Light Tyrant Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Valefor Fangirl Yuna (FFX) - sure
Penultimate Terra (FF6) vs. Izanami 2 (P4) - No real way to get past HP-1 -> poke I think
Pre-Rogue Blue (Saga Frontier) vs. Belial needs a new tailor (WA4) - Unless pre-duel Bluestats were bad enough such that he gets OHKO'd by a single tank drop, he still has OD and MegaWindBlast which Belial doesn't exactly deal with.

Heavy

Decressed Lilka (WA2) vs. Unglitched Lucian (VP) - Evade buffing just kind of wrecks Lucian forever.
B-Ending Yuri (SH) vs. Pauper Orlandu (FFT)
Flame Champion Chris (S3) vs. White Mage Ryu (BoF3)
Windy Hugo (S3) vs. Showboat Raquel (WA4) - Yeah rune specials doing 1 damage on a "miss" is still good enough for me to agree with Hugo's evade carrying the day considering Raq needs to block both sleep and death.

Middle

Noa w/ bad makeup (LoL) vs. Bro Tidus (FFX)
Kyra Eleison (PS4) vs. Single Sword Hiro (L2) - ID still a thing here
Lonely Reyva (SN) vs. Decloaked Poo (EB)
Rune Walsh, proper magician (PS4) vs. Human Millenia (G2) - ID shouldn't be worse than turn 2 and he's still faster.  Don't think Millenia really exploits Rune's now-Rajatastic durability well enough here.

Light

Red-Eyed Dragoon Dart (LoD) vs. Odoryuk Yulie (WA4) - e: welp!
Izanagi Fanboy Yu Nakurami (P4) vs. Magicless Marle (CT) - I'm not thinking about this too hard... but Marle still has Aura here, and Izanagi-only!Yu beats uh Jogurt and Augst.
Busted Cloud (FF7) vs. Democratic Caineghis (FE10)
Selfish Clarissa (WAXF) vs. Limiter Elly (XG)

Puny
"I quit. -Whim" Lily (MK2) vs. C6 Genevieve (VP) - Genevieve plot fight Poizn Blow does less than 0.02 PCHP damage.  EvenMK2 basic physicals, godly as they are, outslug that.
Struggling Mew (Pokemon) vs. SuperBlackAielWizard (FF1DoS)  - Temper stacking to the rescue I guess.
Grounded Ulki (FE10) vs. Magical Kongol (LoD) - This is how bad Kongol magic damage is: 5 Grand Streams, which is the best total magic damage he can output here, doesn't even add up to killing half-average magic durability.  Ulki untransformed is 0.77.
1v1mebro Soren (FE9) vs. Quiet Qristo (DQ4) - Kiryl physicals are awful.  Soren knife physicals don't even register.

[hinode]

Struggling Mew (Pokemon) vs. SuperBlackAielWizard (FF1DoS) - Based on the description I assume Snowfire's actually looked up the exact mechanics on Struggle recoil through the generations, because man that is an evil Mew set. Anyhow, DoS Black Wizard is squishy but not dies to 4 Struggles squishy.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Do attack mods not affect Struggle? While it's entirely possible that BW could muster up enough damage to win before this happens (or even during the Struggle blitz), I'm pretty sure he's going to die if +6 atk Struggle comes out to play, quick rough calculations have it doing slightly over 100 damage per swing which is surely a 2HKO at worst.

[hinode]

Blech, this is why I shouldn't vote right before going to bed, I missed Bulk Up somehow.

That almost certainly flips the match, unless BW has some status weapon somewhere. Also not sure Mew loses a fight in puny now.

[SnowFire]

Votes on the bottom half first.

Light Tyrant Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Valefor Fangirl Yuna (FFX) - I'll buy Elf hype.  Tyrant was quite fast for me but I was stupidly underlevel, and he really wants to be faster than Yuna to have a credible shot here.  Nice that she doesn't block Earth at least.

Heavy

Bow Lenneth (VP) vs. DeathlessEvans (BoF2)
Decressed Lilka (WA2) vs. Unglitched Lucian (VP)
Unholy Rosa (FF4) vs. Just Guv (DQ8)
B-Ending Yuri (SH) vs. Pauper Orlandu (FFT)
Yeah I think weapon breaks even affected Yuri's transformed form and would hit his magic stat too.  I think Yuri might be slightly faster though - Orlandu is just 10 speed which is average, right?  Although the average will obviously drop from no Excalibur so Orlandu might get the drop after all.
Windy Hugo (S3) vs. Showboat Raquel (WA4)
Comet Strike & Dragon Edge are evadable?  Well then.

Middle

ALICIA JEEEENKINS (VP2) vs. Bright Knight (BD)
Probably wins with a poke on turn 2 anyway, but either Default (if you see it as doing anything) or Life or Death turn 1 ensures Leeroyette isn't killing.

Light

Red-Eyed Dragoon Dart (LoD) vs. Odoryuk Yulie (WA4)
DART LITERALLY KILLS HIMSELF WITH HIS ATTACKS.  Okay fine he equips a different weapon, but then his pressure is presumably even worse vs. Protect'd Yulie, and Yulie's damage is weirdly okay according to the stat topic (she'll also pick a non-self damaging weapon) especially post Quicken.  So yeah, Quicken, Protect, beatdown, use Odoryuk once Dart threatens a kill, resume beatdown (or even straight-up Sacrifice if it'll be fatal...  I won't vote yet but I suspect she gains enough FP for a 2nd use of Odoryuk before she dies to Dart, and one more round of Quicken'd attacks should certainly be fatal.
EDIT: See below, too much pressure from Dart.
Meme Sabin (FF6) vs. Straight & Narrow Aika (SoA)
Suplex was physical, right?  Hits the right defensive stat here at least...  but Aika full-heals every other round until turn 52 and I really doubt Suplex 2HKOs and Aika is faster even if it did 2HKO, so surely her 26 boomerang thwacks take it here.
Busted Cloud (FF7) vs. Democratic Caineghis (FE10)
While Cloud lost a crapload of magic power, he still has magic vs. Cain res, doubles, and Lion gauge gives Cloud lots of time to zap him.  I'd be surprised if he can't finish him off.
(Also if you're curious why I didn't call him "Final Duel Cloud", well, Final Duel Cloud ALSO has free counterattacks and a magically increasing Limit gague.  Seems pretty good. )
Selfish Clarissa (WAXF) vs. Limiter Elly (XG)
Ignoring Rob Turn for a moment...  Clarissa has .33 PCHP damage (+6 weapons) with accuracy problems in Howling Shot and .75 PDur (Elly won't be bothering with Ethers here).  She goes first.
Elly has .26 PCHP damage off Sting Kick (no Yamikei) and .94 PCHP *but* with suspect defense. 
So yeah, both 3HKO the other, so Clarissa wins...  except...  78% accuracy on Howling Shot (47% chance of hitting 3 in a row).  Flip side Elly can muff some of the parts of her combo and since her 3HKO is so narrow even that tiny amount of lost damage might matter (although if this is taken into account, arguably the overall XG damage average is lower too negating this).
Clarissa can YOLO spam Rob Turn some, but that's risky too when she doesn't have the brutal Sacrifice finish.  Flip side her better speed sets her up for a natural double eventually which makes this safer.
So yeah, probably Clarissa, but it's close.
ElfChallenge Arnaud (WA4) vs. Waterbottle Gobi (BoF1)
Move to elemental hex, outslug w/ Hi-Blasts.  Arnaud is way magically frailer to the incoming EcoX spam, but he can't be THAT much worse.

Puny

Struggling Mew (Pokemon) vs. SuperBlackAielWizard (FF1DoS)
Yeah it's specified as Gen4+ so that the 1/4 health Struggle comes into play.  So how good is max buffed BW damage anyway?
Grounded Ulki (FE10) vs. Magical Kongol (LoD)
Oh dear.
1v1mebro Soren (FE9) vs. Quiet Qristo (DQ4)
Hey, maybe Qiryl counts as armored for super Stiletto hype?!  (Soren has 4 Strength, Stiletto is apparently 8 Might, and there are surely some enemies on the final map with <12 Defense...  maybe the Bishops?!)

hinode: Well Mew does give his opposition YEARS to set up on him, and Sub deals damage to him.  The likes of 5% ID comes into play, as does running him out of Roosts.  I'd think Ulki could probably handle him, for one?  Get crazy Tear hype going?

[Dark Holy Elf]

According to Serenes, the lone bishop in the FE9 final chapter has 11 def (everything else is 12+, even the sage), so yeah, I suppose KnifeSoren's average damage against final chapter enemies is 0.025! (If you're curious: no, he doesn't break defence on the Generals present in said chapter.)

Suplex is physical, but it also ignores defence. Its damage should be virtually identical to Edgar's Drill.

[Pyro]

Godlike

Light Tyrant Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Valefor Fangirl Yuna (FFX): Might Fou have a problem with Yuna herself? Valefor might be able to pull off an Overdrive and do massive amounts of pain too.
Penultimate Terra (FF6) vs. Izanami 2 (P4): Well, Terra brings the right damage type (powerful magic) but I'm not sure she can pull off a win? Debilitate is kind of mean.
Discriminating Loki (VP) vs.  Final Jenna Angel (DDS): 3 MT elements spoil her...
Pre-Rogue Blue (Saga Frontier) vs. Belial needs a new tailor (WA4): Surely he isn't OHKOd... right?

Heavy

Bow Lenneth (VP) vs. DeathlessEvans (BoF2): He 4HKOs but I think he is not 4HKO'd back.
Decressed Lilka (WA2) vs. Unglitched Lucian (VP): I remember thinking this was hard to figure with Glitched Lucian, and Lilka lacking turn 1 Reflect/better damage doesn't really change things on her end?
Unholy Rosa (FF4) vs. Just Guv (DQ8): Status.
B-Ending Yuri (SH) vs. Pauper Orlandu (FFT): I think he can hang on with draining/breaking/MP destruction.
Flame Champion Chris (S3) vs. White Mage Ryu (BoF3): Ryu can put up Barrier and stack Protects till he doesn't take much physical damage. But... I don't know if he has the offense for this? He's going to like 18HKO Chris or something crazy. Yeah.
Windy Hugo (S3) vs. Showboat Raquel (WA4): Speed edge and his natural parry rate. I think she was vulnerable to sleep? Funeral Wind/Sleep could be nasty for her.

Middle

ALICIA JEEEENKINS (VP2) vs. Bright Knight (BD)
Noa w/ bad makeup (LoL) vs. Bro Tidus (FFX): She'll probably KO with an attack string -> OPB Wind Ultimate.
Kyra Eleison (PS4) vs. Single Sword Hiro (L2): Instant Death?
Lonely Reyva (SN) vs. Decloaked Poo (EB)
Rune Walsh, proper magician (PS4) vs. Human Millenia (G2): Instant Death?
Cecilia (WAACF) vs. Asleep Johnny Garland (SH3)

Light

Red-Eyed Dragoon Dart (LoD) vs. Odoryuk Yulie (WA4): Not sure how Red-Eyed Dart is different.
Izanagi Fanboy Yu Nakurami (P4) vs. Magicless Marle (CT): ...
Meme Sabin (FF6) vs. Straight & Narrow Aika (SoA): Healing/attacking?
Busted Cloud (FF7) vs. Democratic Caineghis (FE10)
Selfish Clarissa (WAXF) vs. Limiter Elly (XG): Epic slapfight here.
ElfChallenge Arnaud (WA4) vs. Waterbottle Gobi (BoF1)

Puny

"I quit. -Whim" Lily (MK2) vs. C6 Genevieve (VP): Surely not Genevieve...
Struggling Mew (Pokemon) vs. SuperBlackAielWizard (FF1DoS)
Grounded Ulki (FE10) vs. Magical Kongol (LoD): I... think?
1v1mebro Soren (FE9) vs. Quiet Qristo (DQ4)

[SnowFire]

Red-Eyed Dragoon Dart (LoD) vs. Odoryuk Yulie (WA4): Not sure how Red-Eyed Dart is different.

Elf actually edited it in awhile ago:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php/topic,22.0.html

His Dragoon addition & Dragoon magic are way worse, basically.  Still has damage-halving so transforming is not 100% worthless, although that might be seen as not working vs. Sacrifice.  (If you let Dart come in with SP, now he's just boned, as he goes up against a higher damage average and also might get less defense hype.)

Also, for Magical Kongol...  5x Grand Stream from Kongol deals 1685 damage according to the stat topic.  At absolute best, this is ~.61 PCHP vs. the no hard-to-get Additions, no Divine Dragoon damage average...  okay it's probably slightly better than that since Kongol's 3 turn damage average has also tanked (if we bake that in), so call it ~.65 PCHP.  At best.  Ulki is magically tankier than that per Random, unless you see his pitiable grounded state as making him weak to earth or something.

[Dhyerwolf]

hinode: Well Mew does give his opposition YEARS to set up on him, and Sub deals damage to him.  The likes of 5% ID comes into play, as does running him out of Roosts.  I'd think Ulki could probably handle him, for one?  Get crazy Tear hype going?

So Lily easily beats him (unless you don't allow ID weapons).

[SnowFire]

DART vs. YULIE

Okay, assuming 0 SP and max'd Blazing Dynamo for a first pass.  Also assuming Dart doesn't care about transforming since Yulie MDef is pretty great and the Dragoon addition does less damage.

Dart deals either .42 PCHP and eats 10% self-damage or...  huh, he has a low% Confuse-inflicting weapon, and that deals .32 PCHP.  Or slightly more if he doesn't care about Confuse.  Yulie PDur is .66 PCHP, or .83 PCHP Protected.  Actually that makes Dart really like the self-damage, it'll 2HKO her even under Protect.  So.

Dart: Attacks.
Yulie: Quicken.
Yulie: Protect.
Dart: Attack, dead.

Okay bad plan.

Dart: Attacks.
Yulie: Quicken.
Yulie: Material
Dart: Attack
Yulie: Has 2 turns, to win vs. 80% PCHP Dart.  Has 8 FP.

Okay so don't mock the self-damage sword, it cuts crucial turns off Yulie's game and helps deny her another 25 FP.

So what happens if we deny Dart Blazing Dynamo?  Well, he's back down to .33 PCHP with self damage or .26 PCHP without, so this ends up with....

Dart: Attacks.
Yulie: Quicken.
Yulie: Protect
Dart: Attack (still not fatal)
Yulie: Material
Yulie: Attack
Dart: Attack
Yulie: Attack
Yulie: Attack
Dart: Attack (28 FP!)
Yulie: Material (also no double)
Dart: Attack
Yulie: Attack
Yulie: Sacrifice

So...  yeah, self-damage weapon is suicide in this case.  Dart can still win with a confuse proc, although Yulie can hypothetically block that at cost of her stats being really trashy...  hmmm.

Anyway probably going to vote for Dart.  The fact that he still has an argument even without Blazing Dynamo seems a fair enough tiebreaker (I *got* BD, but only got it to level 3 or so myself.)

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike

Light Tyrant Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Valefor Fangirl Yuna (FFX): Yuna just stalls (Protect to forstall physical OHKOs, can be reapplied if dispelled, otherwise healing) until Valefor can be summoned in overdrive. She probably doesn't OHKO but isn't too far from it, so she just needs to squeak out a little damage otherwise, and halved Holy can probably make up the difference.
Discriminating Loki (VP) vs. Frue Final Jenna Angel (DDS): Carnage Anthem = MT element none of the cores block = Jenna gets wrecked.
Pre-Rouge Blue (Saga Frontier) vs. Belial needs a new tailor (WA4): Can take the hit needed.

Heavy

Bow Lenneth (VP) vs. DeathlessEvans (BoF2): Same result as in the DL proper. Evans 4HKOs and isn't 4HKOed (or probably even 5HKOed).
Decressed Lilka (WA2) vs. Unglitched Lucian (VP): Lucian's killer turns don't OHKO any more, so Lilka just buffs evade / heals.
Unholy Rosa (FF4) vs. Just Guv (DQ8): Well I nommed Rosa in middle which may be a poor idea. Still Guv isn't really much of a Heavy anyway. Berserk/Blink presumably works fine.
B-Ending Yuri (SH) vs. Pauper Orlandu (FFT): I suspect Fire Yuri misses the 2HKO even after buffing though we don't have numbers to be certain. So yeah, the HP draining does its thing, especially since it 3HKOs Yuri at worst... so he'd need to heal and the water/light fusions have no great offence.
Flame Champion Chris (S3) vs. White Mage Ryu (BoF3): Chris has a 3HKO (even factoring in Phoenix), so Ryu can heal every two turns and attack the rest of the time. Protect makes this even worse, cuts by 80% after enough stackings, so yeah at that point Chris 12HKOs at best, and he can heal. He may only 18HKO Chris, but she can't heal any more; he can.
Windy Hugo (S3) vs. Showboat Raquel (WA4): Raquel must block both Sleep and ID, which drops her accuracy by -34 or so. So she can have fun hitting Hugo all of never.

Middle

ALICIA JEEEENKINS (VP2) vs. Bright Knight (BD): Trusting Snowfire unless someone wants to put forward another argument.
Kyra Eleison (PS4) vs. Single Sword Hiro (L2): Kyra does not blitz. This Hiro nerf beats her unnerfed form.
Rune Walsh, proper magician (PS4) vs. Human Millenia (G2): Goddamnit Dhyer do not omit stats from stat topics, Rune's ID checks magic so how good is Millenia's anyway? Looks pretty good in CK's topic, I'll buy her reducing Negatis to turn 2. But Millenia's own status isn't going to be turn 1 either (especially since Rune halves silence/sleep), and Rune is faster.
Cecilia (WAACF) vs. Asleep Johnny Garland (SH3): Johnny's offence sucks, Cecilia should be able to turtle his SP easy.

Light

Red-Eyed Dragoon Dart (LoD) vs. Odoryuk Yulie (WA4): I mathed out a bunch of stuff here and was all ready to vote for Yulie, then noticed I forgot about the confuse weapon. I doubt Yulie can win with that stat hit since it's so close. EDIT: See below, the stat hit matters but apparently not enough to cost Yulie the win.
Busted Cloud (FF7) vs. Democratic Caineghis (FE10): Cloud closes to melee range and doubles Ice 3 which still does ~2500 FF7 damage, so is killing in three turns at worst. Why melee range? Because Caineghis gains less gauge if he counters. These counters to 3HKO Cloud, but that's not good enough.
Selfish Clarissa (WAXF) vs. Limiter Elly (XG): Clarissa 4HKOs (factoring in a miss) and Elly 3HKOs. So Clarissa Rob Turns once which is a reasonably safe strategy, now she gets the 4HKO first.
ElfChallenge Arnaud (WA4) vs. Waterbottle Gobi (BoF1): Arnuad has 0.62 pdur, 0.87 mdur, 62% evade with this setup. His slightly weaker Hi-Blasts 4HKO Gobi, while EcoX only 5HKOs back, and Arnaud is faster and has Magic Blocker. Sleep could also help. His offence is bad but this Arnaud is honestly still pretty damn good in Light, my apologies if he turns out to be too good.

Puny

"I quit. -Whim" Lily (MK2) vs. C6 Genevieve (VP): Yeah C6 Genevieve is ridiculously bad.
Struggling Mew (Pokemon) vs. SuperBlackAielWizard (FF1DoS): Black Wizard does 8% with his physical, but every use of Temper increases this by about 8%, and he can double it. That said I suspect Atk will max out at 255, at which point BW does 4000 damage with a physical. If Mew's defence could entirely take care of this he might be okay, but... crits bypass defences in both games. Hmm. So, assuming 9 non-crits and one crit (which is average), BW does 3263 def-subject damage and 745 ITD, which is pretty mean, should do 61% to Mew. Sure it takes BW 12 turns of buffing to get here, but that's time he has, and once he does he'll overpower the healing pretty well I think. So much for Mew hype!
Grounded Ulki (FE10) vs. Magical Kongol (LoD)
1v1mebro Soren (FE9) vs. Quiet Qristo (DQ4): And finally, two brainless matches to end things off.

[hinode]

hinode: Well Mew does give his opposition YEARS to set up on him, and Sub deals damage to him.  The likes of 5% ID comes into play, as does running him out of Roosts.  I'd think Ulki could probably handle him, for one?  Get crazy Tear hype going?

So Lily easily beats him (unless you don't allow ID weapons).

Substitute will take ID, so the proc rate would have to be high enough to outrace sub/roost, at which point are you really a puny?

[superaielman]

Godlike

Light Tyrant Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Valefor Fangirl Yuna (FFX)- Strong kneejerk here. -E: I so meant to bold Yuna here.
Penultimate Terra (FF6) vs. Izanami 2 (P4)- Izanami with just form 2 is still pretty evil, Terra is massively outclassed here.
Discriminating Loki (VP) vs. Frue Final Jenna Angel (DDS)- Think so? I don't remember Jenna's final form being that durable if you had MT.
Pre-Rogue Blue (Saga Frontier) vs. Belial needs a new tailor (WA4)- *Squish*

Heavy

Unholy Rosa (FF4) vs. Just Guv (DQ8)- Splat.
B-Ending Yuri (SH) vs. Pauper Orlandu (FFT)- Breaking Yuri's armor or weapon both do horrible things.
Flame Champion Chris (S3) vs. White Mage Ryu (BoF3)- Unless Chris countered way more than I remembered.
Windy Hugo (S3) vs. Showboat Raquel (WA4)- Status.

Puny

Struggling Mew (Pokemon) vs. SuperBlackAielWizard (FF1DoS)- Hey now! Racially Insensitive Wizard was allowed to use status magic in that run!

[Dark Holy Elf]

I realised on reflection that Carnage Anthem might be earth (based on VP2 reflavouring Poison Blow, etc., to earth), in which case Jenna would block it after all. But it doesn't matter. Having 3 different flavours of MT is, like, the perfect way to handle Jenna. For instance:

Loki: Extension Force [MT fire] (kills all but the fire orb)
Jenna: Attack, summon an orb (either ice or earth, let's say earth)
Loki: Dragon Orb [MT ice] (kills the fire and earth orbs, damages Jenna)
Jenna: Attack, summon an orb
Loki: Whatever MT attack will kill the orb (also damages Jenna)
(repeat last two)

All Jenna can do is throw 5-6HKO physicals back (against Loki pdur) until she dies from 2HKO magic damage. She also gets one orb attack off turn 1 (7HKO magic!) and whatever you see the reflected Loki opener doing (but seeing as that's physical, it shouldn't be much...). Loki actually spoils her really badly.

[SnowFire]

Is there a reason to hype Hugo evade here I'm missing?  Maybe I'm crazy but I thought that S3 evade didn't work on Rune specials, and Comet Strike / Iron Divide definitely ignore Blocker (there's that Tony fight that teaches you this fact), and I presume Dragon Edge would too.  Shouldn't a Dragon Edge game be at least viable here (if you allow status blockers at least)?

[Dark Holy Elf]

Absolutely everything Raquel does is evadable (blocker is different); you can easily see this if you attack one of the game's unusually evasive enemies such as Ape Man Vargon. You can use the fact they get past blocker as a way to hype them getting past Hugo's B+ in Parry, but not his S in Repel.

S3 has relatively more ITE attacks than WA4, but most rune attacks in S3 are in fact evadable (they do 1 damage).

[Reiska]

No votes yet, but a point of order: every bit of documentation I can find states that Dawn of Souls crits are not ITD.

[Dark Holy Elf]

This thread shows that crits are unchanged from FF1; their damage boost is indeed ITD. That's slightly different from DQ (which literally causes defence to not matter), but close enough. An example of a non-ITD crit would be one which doubled or tripled final damage (for instance, Suikoden 1-2 or Fire Emblem).

[Dark Holy Elf]

Okay, mathing out Yulie with confuse blocker vs. Dart with Mind Crush...

Yulie blocking confuse has 80% speed (154% after Quicken), 0.63 pdur (0.79 after Protect), and does 20% damage with her physicals at 78 accuracy. This is pretty bad but hey Dart is using the Mind Crush, he's pretty bad too, doing 25% damage (3HKO to Yulie, 4HKO starting from full after Protect). Yulie doubles less often now of course. I think the fight now goes...

Dart: Attack
Yulie: Quicken, Protect
Dart: Attack
Yulie: Odoryuk (FP drops to 8)
Dart: Attack
Yulie: Attack x2
Dart: Attack
Yulie: Attack x2
Dart: Attack
Yulie: Odoryuk (FP drops to 11)
Dart: Attack
Yulie: Attack x2
Dart: Attack
Yulie: Attack
Dart: Attack
Yulie: Attack x2

Actually wait Yulie wins this, never mind. Wasn't expecting her to stave off the 3HKO despite the statusblocker stat hit, but she barely does. Vote changed.

[Reiska]

This thread shows that crits are unchanged from FF1; their damage boost is indeed ITD. That's slightly different from DQ (which literally causes defence to not matter), but close enough. An example of a non-ITD crit would be one which doubled or tripled final damage (for instance, Suikoden 1-2 or Fire Emblem).

Ah, I stand corrected then, must have been thinking of Origins, where people did notice strange damage behavior with crits?  I dunno.

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Light Tyrant Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Valefor Fangirl Yuna (FFX)
Penultimate Terra (FF6) vs. Izanami 2 (P4)
Discriminating Loki (VP) vs. Frue Final Jenna Angel (DDS)
Pre-Rogue Blue (Saga Frontier) vs. Belial needs a new tailor (WA4)

Heavy

Bow Lenneth (VP) vs. DeathlessEvans (BoF2)
Decressed Lilka (WA2) vs. Unglitched Lucian (VP)
Unholy Rosa (FF4) vs. Just Guv (DQ8)
B-Ending Yuri (SH) vs. Pauper Orlandu (FFT)
Flame Champion Chris (S3) vs. White Mage Ryu (BoF3)
Windy Hugo (S3) vs. Showboat Raquel (WA4)

Middle

ALICIA JEEEENKINS (VP2) vs. Bright Knight (BD)
Noa w/ bad makeup (LoL) vs. Bro Tidus (FFX)- No vote.
Kyra Eleison (PS4) vs. Single Sword Hiro (L2)
Lonely Reyva (SN) vs. Decloaked Poo (EB)
Rune Walsh, proper magician (PS4) vs. Human Millenia (G2)
Cecilia (WAACF) vs. Asleep Johnny Garland (SH3)

Light

Red-Eyed Dragoon Dart (LoD) vs. Odoryuk Yulie (WA4)
Izanagi Fanboy Yu Nakurami (P4) vs. Magicless Marle (CT)- Izanagi Yu is more of a Puny.
Meme Sabin (FF6) vs. Straight & Narrow Aika (SoA)- P...roably
Busted Cloud (FF7) vs. Democratic Caineghis (FE10)
Selfish Clarissa (WAXF) vs. Limiter Elly (XG)
ElfChallenge Arnaud (WA4) vs. Waterbottle Gobi (BoF1)

Puny

"I quit. -Whim" Lily (MK2) vs. C6 Genevieve (VP)- I'm pretty sure C6 Genevieve isnot meaningfully more durable than Original Flavor Hrist on top of everything else.
Struggling Mew (Pokemon) vs. SuperBlackAielWizard (FF1DoS)
Grounded Ulki (FE10) vs. Magical Kongol (LoD)
1v1mebro Soren (FE9) vs. Quiet Qristo (DQ4)

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike

Light Tyrant Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Valefor Fangirl Yuna (FFX)
Penultimate Terra (FF6) vs. Izanami 2 (P4)
Discriminating Loki (VP) vs. Frue Final Jenna Angel (DDS)

Heavy

Bow Lenneth (VP) vs. DeathlessEvans (BoF2)
Decressed Lilka (WA2) vs. Unglitched Lucian (VP)
Unholy Rosa (FF4) vs. Just Guv (DQ8)
B-Ending Yuri (SH) vs. Pauper Orlandu (FFT)
Flame Champion Chris (S3) vs. White Mage Ryu (BoF3)
Windy Hugo (S3) vs. Showboat Raquel (WA4)

Middle

ALICIA JEEEENKINS (VP2) vs. Bright Knight (BD)- ?? vs Bright Knight
Noa w/ bad makeup (LoL) vs. Bro Tidus (FFX)
Kyra Eleison (PS4) vs. Single Sword Hiro (L2)
Lonely Reyva (SN) vs. Decloaked Poo (EB)
Rune Walsh, proper magician (PS4) vs. Human Millenia (G2)
Cecilia (WAACF) vs. Asleep Johnny Garland (SH3)

Light

Izanagi Fanboy Yu Nakurami (P4) vs. Magicless Marle (CT)
Meme Sabin (FF6) vs. Straight & Narrow Aika (SoA)
Selfish Clarissa (WAXF) vs. Limiter Elly (XG)

[SnowFire]

ALICIA JEEEENKINS (VP2) vs. Bright Knight (BD)- ??????????? vs Bright Knight

Tide basically nom'd speedrun Alicia.  She loses 5% HP on each hit but gets a huge attack bonus (if there's any HP to lose).  She also gets a general stat bonus at low health (which doesn't go away from being even lower health).  (In-game, the idea is to gank bosses instantly I presume.)  Basically if you're faster than her you win, if you're slower you need really good defense...  Bright Knight is faster but has horrible damage when Minus Strike isn't active, but he can just tank Alicia's damage, she'll go to 4% HP naturally, then poke her with literally anything.  (Alternatively Alicia can refuse to attack but then BK just starts default stocking.)

I don't have a good sense on just HOW good Alicia's burst is but Life or Death'd Bright Knight w/ a Bloody Shield is extremely tanky so I'm not buying it being enough.