A few other random thoughts:
--Hugo may actually 2HKO at base. Ryu is dropping a little defense, and Hugo's damage is somewhat defense piercing anyways.
--Hugo doesn't just have a chance to counter when he gets hit, he also has a chance to counter when he Repels (although I unfortunately am not sure of the rate, it at least means that even when Ryu is whiffing, there's a chance for Hugo to put on offensive pressure).
--Hugo has about 1 SD of speed advantage. For me, in this match, that's probably almost a good 10 extra turns or so. On a higher SD, this just tilts more and more.