Author Topic: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!  (Read 46195 times)

Hunter Sopko

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #250 on: March 31, 2008, 05:22:20 AM »
Quote from: Andrew
For anyone who didn't swing Keeshi or Tom last night... why?

See Shale, really.  I didn't trust Keeshi, but I thought Excal was more likely to be scum.

Quote from: Andrew
Today I think we really need to hear from the lurkers. Ryogo was pretty fast on the train, and then gone for most of the day with very little commentary. Sopko has similarly lacked presence. Shale, similarly, has had a weak feeling presence.

I'm curious about the fact that you call out lurkers specifically, yet ignore Excal, who had exactly one post for the entirety of day 2.

---

Quote from: Sopko
We were going to lynch either Keeshi or Tom at that point. Excal and OK were shuffled to the background after the claim and Keeshi had made her breadcrumbing sufficiently apparant. Mislynching always sucks, and you're attempting to put words in my mouth with that.

I disagree.  Keeshi's breadcrumbing couldn't be clearly-established at all.  Also, you say "Excal and OK were shuffled to the background after the claim," but let's look at where the votes stood when you made that post:

Quote from: SirAlex's votecount (modified)
EvilTom (3): Keeshi, Corwin, Ryogo
Excal (3): Shale, OblivionKnight, Sir Alex, Otter, EvilTom
Keeshi (2): Ryogo, Sir Alex, Sir Alex, Andrew Rogue, Hunter Sopko, EvilTom
OblivionKnight (0): Corwin
Otter (1): Excal

[Note: Alex's votecount happened after Soppy and Andy voted Tom, so I removed those votes to look at where the standings were when Soppy was posting.  All that happened after this was Soppy's vote for Tom, Andy's vote for Tom, and finally Alex's vote for Tom.]

Well!  I don't know what you meant; OK wasn't on the table here at all, and Excal wasn't "shuffled to the background," he still had as many votes as Tom did (and more than Keeshi!) when you were making that post.  I'm not sure what you mean by your explanation, here.

As for me putting words in your mouth: that wasn't my intention at all.  I'm not trying to misrepresent you.  I'm just asking: what did you mean by "We don't have much to lose lynching him"?

As for the rest of your reasoning, all of that applies to any time that somebody claims cops and fingers someone else.  Your logic would dictate that you've always got more to lose by accidentally lynching the cop, so you should lynch the one they fingered to test their claim.  What you're ignoring here is that there was a very large case on Keeshi already (which is why she was forced into making the claim to begin with), while there wasn't one on Tom.  This is like an invitation for cornered scum to grab a free mislynch before they die by claiming cop and fingering somebody; fortunately, it's not what happened here.

Quote from: Soppy
Two end well, and there's always the possibility we she could have been bussing Tom to protect herself, but honestly, I went with the choice where I felt it was best for the time and place. It wasn't foolproof by far, but a choice had to be made and stuck with.

And you justify your decision with... "I went with the choice where I felt it was best for the time and place."  If that means something more than "I chose arbitrarily and don't have any reasons to tell you about," then please explain what it does mean.

Last part first, no. It was an educated guess based on the information at hand. There's a certain amount of risk voting ANYONE, and just because I didn't agree with you doesn't mean it was arbitrary. If you can't accept the explanation I gave you then I'm sorry, there really isn't more to it than that.

I am, however, less inclined than Alex to believe it clears Excal. His one post of yesterday was an atrocious knee-jerk countervote to Otter and I hounded him for it yesterday. As I've always said, maintaining a healthy skepticism helps.
 
Both he and Ryogo need to talk at this point.

For OK, going over Day 1, it looks like the first people Tom jumped on were Rat, Ryogo and Excal (in http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13208#msg13208).

Rat for bandwagoning. Ryogo for being paranoid. Excal for being suspicious of people not being suspicious of him. Specifically Rat, Shale, Otter and I for not being suspicious of that third vote.

This somewhat goes against what Otter claims in the previous post about Tom not going after Excal Day 1. Granted, it's not a vote, but it's something.

Ryogo

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #251 on: March 31, 2008, 05:41:35 AM »
I honestly don't know what to think anymore. My brain is shot. This is more of a post to say "Hey! I'm alive! Quick thoughts before I go deeper and vote and jazz!"

Apparently, my cop logic with Keeshi was right. Huh, that's awesome.

Excal's lurking I'm very wary of, considering all the suspicions that surrounded him before. I would like to hear from him again (And I know I haven't been around that much today, or yesterday. I'm just out and about a lot more on weekends than on weekdays, and haven't been able to sit down and take the time to analyze things). However, Alex makes a valid point. Tom making a vote that early for Excal makes Excal look much less scummy. But Excal could've asked one of them to do it, or Tom thought it might've been a good way to help clear his name. Its not clear-cut. That's the problem, and is very WIFOM-y indeed. Remember though, that Excal was a Day 1 case, and it isn't always the best stuff to go off of.

Keeshi's flip and her not dying from a nightkill suggests we have a doc among us. A bullet-proof cop sounds quite over-powered to me, and I don't think it would be here in this game. I want to drop this line of questioning though. If us townies DO have a doc, talking about it more will only end up chancing his/her exposure. I do wish Keeshi had of waited to post with an investigation result before leaving though. Though being a family emergency, I'm very sympathetic. I'm sure this wouldn't be first thing on her list to do.

Suspicions... Hrrmmm. Otter seems to be drawing a lot of attention today, as does Alex. Nice little spat between those two going on. Some of Otter's stuff, I just don't know. I don't want to side yet, too little to use yet, and my brain is shot, like I said before. Also, going back over Tom's posts, he drew a lot of suspicions towards our day 1 NK victim, Carthrat. He also based some of his stuff from Andrew. Bringing up a quick vote count from Day 1 again, the only votes on Carthrat were from me, Shale, and Andrew. Mine and Shale's were jokevotes, Andrew's was not. Granted shortly after Tom's posting, Andrew switched his vote to Tom.

1) However, it seemed pretty safe that Tom was in no danger, and could be a ploy to say that he "voted for scum on is own accord before, how could he be scum?" kinda thing.
2) Tom defends Andrew in his "I'm not scum, but am lying to save my skin" post. If 1) is true, Tom could be trying to solidify Andrew's position as a townie in our eyes for later on. He knew he was going down, he might as well have tried to help out in what ways he could.
3) Also, Andrew claims to be back to his regular posting ability, yet we've heard very little from the guy since. Maybe I'm over-analyzing, or going too far out there.


Quote from: Andrew
Today I think we really need to hear from the lurkers. Ryogo was pretty fast on the train, and then gone for most of the day with very little commentary. Sopko has similarly lacked presence. Shale, similarly, has had a weak feeling presence.

I'm curious about the fact that you call out lurkers specifically, yet ignore Excal, who had exactly one post for the entirety of day 2.

Andrew hasn't done much better, and I'm surprised you haven't tried to call on that Otter. You keep gnashing at Excal, almost with a burning, yet blinding passion. I dunno if that's scummy or not. I just find it weird that you're so determined to get him so badly still. I agree with your logic against Alex though. He didn't vote either way on the split votes day 1. The only other person who didn't cast a vote either way was... Tom. And look how he turned up. It does look like they wanted the no lynch. Tom did for sure, not sure about Alex. But that does look a bit scum-ish.

Final thoughts? Too much to go off of, I need some sleep and food to think through this.

EDIT: ACK, ninja'd by three posts.

Doing this quick, I falling asleep at the keys here.

Shale: Completely agree with you. Its pretty much what I was trying to say in my post for a deal of it.

Otter: Yes, I agree that Excal still looks scummy from what we've seen. He HAS to post. There's no way around it. Other than that though, I wanna see him say something before I come to my conclusions on him.

Sopko: Here is me posting, I'm real sorry for the delays and such in posting. I agree with your day 2 logic, and in fact, used the same logic myself. Better to risk losing the townie than losing the cop. And that claim really couldn't be ignore, Otter. There's no ways around it.

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #252 on: March 31, 2008, 05:59:32 AM »
Quote from: Soppy
This somewhat goes against what Otter claims in the previous post about Tom not going after Excal Day 1. Granted, it's not a vote, but it's something.

My point was that Tom didn't vote for him on day 1, which Alex seems to be thinking he did.  Observe:

Quote from: Alex
I can't really see scum going "Oh well, let's cut Excal off day 1, Tom, help bus him so you can get cred and handle the late game!"

---

Quote from: Soppy
Last part first, no. It was an educated guess based on the information at hand. There's a certain amount of risk voting ANYONE, and just because I didn't agree with you doesn't mean it was arbitrary. If you can't accept the explanation I gave you then I'm sorry, there really isn't more to it than that.

I didn't say it was arbitrary; I asked for your reasons and your logic.  The logic you provided seemed holey to me (since that thought train leads to lynching anyone who gets fingered by a cop-claimer).  You say it was "an educated guess based on the information at hand"; all I'm asking from you is to tell me what exact information you based your educated guess on.  If it really is just that you're okay with lynching anyone a claimed cop fingers to test it out, and you thought Keeshi vs. Tom was a coinflip decision where you lucked out, well, say so.  If that's not your stance, but you wanted to choose between the two and just had a hunch that Keeshi was innocent, well, say so.  I'd rather not put words in your mouth, but I do want you to say what made you vote the way you did.  And:

Quote from: Otter
I'm just asking: what did you mean by "We don't have much to lose lynching him"?

You haven't answered that either.  I'm really not trying to hound you here, it's just that direct, minimal-drama answers are helpful and it doesn't seem like I can get my questions answered without repetition.

---

A lot of people need to talk more; I'll call out Ryogo, Corwin, Excal (obviously), and... Soppy, because you've mostly just been responding to me all day and not making a case on anybody or laying down any votes.  If possible, do more than react.

EDIT: And there's a Ryogo post.  Lots of "My brain's shot, I can't think about this right now," but it's better than nothing and he does put his opinions on the table, which is good.  Ryogo: If I'm persistent about the case on Excal, it's because he's amassed a mountain of scumtells, hasn't answered me when I've called him on them, and now appears to be hiding.  Would you rather have me let that slide?  I think he's scum and nothing's happened to change my mind yet.  That doesn't mean I'm ignoring other people, but as long as he looks the scummiest to me, my vote's staying on him, and I'll remain vocal about him because a lot of players seem to be ignoring the whole case on him (is it just not interesting anymore because it's been so many days since I presented all the serious objections, and there's been no response, and so nobody's really thinking about it at this point? because "Wait it out and don't answer any questions till everyone forgets the case" should not be an effective defense, and I don't intend to let it be).

Corwin

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #253 on: March 31, 2008, 07:12:07 AM »
Quite a lot has happened. I'll start with a couple points about Ryogo and OK I was going to make as I was ninja'd by the hammer.

Ryogo: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13824#msg13824

Quote
Keeshi: Her roleclaim is a shock, and early, and unless someone else comes forwards that can disprove her of her role, then I've got no choice but to believe her.

Retarded to the extreme, and would be suspicious if Ryogo weren't new to the game. A counter cop claim day 2, which is in many ways the same as day 1 since we didn't have a lynch?

Quote
Another worry though. How can we tell you're sane? I remember Cid saying in the last game that the mod almost never tells which kind of cop you are. I'm assuming he would follow the same logic.

By lynching Tom, naturally. It's not foolproof, but it's the best we can get here. I must ask, what else would you like to do in the face of a cop claim? Ignore it? The only other option is to go "I don't believe the claim" and lynch the 'cop'. That would verify the results one way of the other.

I found these parts of Ryogo's reaction to Keeshi's roleclaim puzzling, and I'm hoping he'd explain what he was thinking when he typed them up.

OK: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13826#msg13826

The early claim makes sense as she's gotten close to hammer, and she (claims) to have actually hit scum. I don't know if I would've acted the same way -- the vote is sufficient breadcrumbing if she did get lynched, and if the lynch went on Excal, the only other candidate at the time, she would be able to investigate again. Eh.

But just because Keeshi's logic was suspect (the choice of the target, not hanging in there longer before a claim) I see it as no explanation for this:

Quote
Another post of Doom coming soon.  I just want to get this sorted first.  Keeping my vote where it is, since I still find Excal scummiest with the logic, and want to see Keeshi's answers.

OK, please explain to me why, in a matter where someone roleclaims cop and calls another player scum, you are voting... for a third player. This is-- I can't wrap my mind around it! Either it's a horribly unfair setup (miller/cop, some kind of insane cop, framing, even far less likely scenarios) or ONE OF THEM, AT LEAST, MUST BE SCUM. We are in this to LYNCH SCUM. We cannot SUFFER SCUM TO LIVE.

So since we've dipped into a discussion of horrible logic, please explain yours. And no, I wasn't moving my vote back on you for this, because we actually have to kill scum before scummy-seeming people.

[Edit: I'd like Otter (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13876#msg13876) to respond to this as well, for much the same reasons; ditto Shale. How can people who were actually around still talk about favoring a third person over a cop claim and the person the claimed cop fingered as scum?! It's horrible, horrible play at best to just ignore that mess altogether and vote elsewhere.]

These were what I wanted to hear about the most, since reactions are important, and those were what caught my attention.

Now, to Tom.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13874#msg13874

What jumps at me is how much Tom assosiates himself with Alex, which makes me think Alex is actually on town's side. Or it's all horrible wifom, whatever. I likewise find it telling he takes great pains not to actually mention Excal in any form. Tom talks about potential lynch candidates quite a bit, and Excal is nowhere among them, tellingly; it's as if he had forgotten Excal exists, even needing a fresh post to unvote him before he votes Keeshi.

Okay, fully caught up to the beginning of today. I'll post more over lunch break; I intend to go over Tom's previous posts and respond to a few things I really didn't like when I skimmed up to the present.

Otter

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #254 on: March 31, 2008, 08:02:31 AM »
Cor: I understand your objection, but look at it this way.  First of all, in a 13-player game, I'm not going to dismiss the possibility of a paranoid or insane cop (again: insane cops can actually be helpful to town, so it wouldn't shock me to see one used even by a mod who was actively avoiding role madness).  Next, let's say I had accepted that there was no chance of a paranoid/insane cop, meaning one of Keeshi and Tom had to be scum.  I still didn't have a very clear read on those two; Keeshi was my second favorite to lynch, but I was still uncertain about her:

Quote from: Otter
I think Excal's actions have been more damning, overall, to the point where I'm having a really hard time imagining an explanation for his actions if he were actually innocent.  Keeshi looks bad herself, and would be my second choice to lynch right now, but I can still sort of see how it could happen if she had good intentions; not so for Excal.  I'm leaving my vote on the player that seems most likely to turn up scum.

To put it another way: okay, so let's say one of Keeshi or Tom has to be scum.  Offhand, I'll say I was estimating maybe a 70% chance for Keeshi to be the scum between them, as I saw the case against her pretty clearly but also could see understandable reasons for her scumtells if she was telling the truth.  That would mean I saw roughly a 30% chance for Tom to be scum.  Now, all the while, Excal was continuing to ignore every basic point I'd ever brought up against him (which he's still doing), and the scumminess of his early actions combined with his extremely evasive refusal to respond to anything directly, plus his vanishingly weak case on me being his only post at all on day 2 (with no follow-up post in sight, even now).  I had his being scum at about 90-95%, which is about as close as I get to certainty without, say, a confirmed supercop result.  Are you really saying I should have voted Keeshi here, when it seemed significantly more likely to me that Excal was scum?

I too believe that we cannot suffer scum to live, and that means voting in a way that maximizes my chance of hitting scum.  Since that time, Excal's continued absence has only given me more reason to think he's hiding because he still has no way to answer any of my original charges against him; apparently he's hoping that with time, everyone will forget what was suspicious about him in the first place, and it actually seems to be working.  If you don't think I'm justified in being as sure about Excal as I am, check the following links; I have no reason to repeat myself when I didn't get any real response from him in the first place.  He hasn't responded to any of Shale's repeated questions, either.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13357#msg13357
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13489#msg13489
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13497#msg13497

Now look for the posts where gives direct answers about the issues I'd raised.  I'd link them, but they kind of don't exist; mostly he calls my accusations "fascinating" and says something very general in an attempt to handwave everything I've said, then changes the topic quickly (when he acknowledges that I've posted at all).  About the closest he ever comes to responding directly to anything is here, where he tries to explain how his own self-contradictions were just a one-time thing (even though he'd already revised himself at least twice over):

Quote from: Excal
You then use this to argue that I'm continueing to argue with myself, despite the fact that when I initially did it [note how he's admitting that he continued to do it afterwards], I did so to spur conversation even with the risk that in a quiet day 1 that would turn on me.  I haven't played fast and loose with my arguments like that since I did it on page 1, and I've no intentions of doing so again.

Apparently, when he said "I'm not going to make any more contradictions," he meant he was going to avoid them by not posting anymore.

Ranmilia

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #255 on: March 31, 2008, 08:15:44 AM »
Tom on Excal, day 1:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13503#msg13503

"Ugh, now to try and make something of this Otter/Excal thing. From what I can see on a first read-through, Otter is jumping on Excal's flip-flopping, saying that he's contradicting himself (again) and Excal is saying Otter scares away new players (?) and is misrepresenting him, and then refusing to defend himself from Otter's accusations. I'm going to have to read through this some more first to make sense of it.

So far though, Excal and Keeshi are topping my list for day 1 vote options, and I'll probably be laying one down in my next post."

We know for a fact Keeshi was town.  Granted, Tom did not actually show up again to lay a vote down - but he didn't vote OK either, and in the cross between Excal and OK he was clearly on Excal.  His immediate vote on Excal day 2 backs this up further - if Excal was scum, why wouldn't Tom go after OK instead?  At the time Tom placed his vote, the day 2 status was 3 on Excal and 1 on OK.  That's hardly a must-bus bandwagon. 

I honestly don't have any idea what contradictions Otter says he's bringing up that I haven't addressed.  I answered all the points he made and haven't seen him raise any other "serious objections" besides trying to equate Excal vs OK with Keeshi vs Tom, which as I said before is completely wrong due to the cop claim involved. 

AndrewRogue

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #256 on: March 31, 2008, 08:39:04 AM »
Ryogo, I think that your logic on me is stretching slightly and does kind of ignore the fact that I'm not the only one Tom "defends" in his post. I'd also point out that I have put out some fairly dense posts. My real problem with you, currently, is that your logic has been... fairly off all game. Your reactions seem appropriately newbie, but you just don't feel... right to me. It also, to some degree, fits with my secondary logic on the Carth NK.

My current stance on the Excal issue is... that it needs to be dealt with. His defense of Keeshi has shifted back to a neutral position, but his lack of appearing... yeah, that is problematic.

Otter... not sure. He was a scum candidate to me, and his attacks and stance today haven't quite felt kosher today.

The problem I'm seeing right now is that the game is getting polarized between the more dominant conversationalists and the quieter folks. As such, I highly encourage everyone (yes, that includes me) to speak up more and get more involved so we don't lose track. At this juncture... I'm inclined to lean towards Ryogo or Otter.

Ryogo's logic and presence all game have just been painfully lackluster.

Otter has raised some basic alarms with me, and still fits in strangely where the end of day one is considered.

Hunter Sopko

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #257 on: March 31, 2008, 08:47:39 AM »
To put it another way: okay, so let's say one of Keeshi or Tom has to be scum.  Offhand, I'll say I was estimating maybe a 70% chance for Keeshi to be the scum between them, as I saw the case against her pretty clearly but also could see understandable reasons for her scumtells if she was telling the truth.  That would mean I saw roughly a 30% chance for Tom to be scum.  Now, all the while, Excal was continuing to ignore every basic point I'd ever brought up against him (which he's still doing), and the scumminess of his early actions combined with his extremely evasive refusal to respond to anything directly, plus his vanishingly weak case on me being his only post at all on day 2 (with no follow-up post in sight, even now).  I had his being scum at about 90-95%, which is about as close as I get to certainty without, say, a confirmed supercop result.  Are you really saying I should have voted Keeshi here, when it seemed significantly more likely to me that Excal was scum?

Now who is making up stuff arbitrarily? You state these figures like they're fact, not your randomly self-decided scale of scum meter.

This was enough to make me go over Otter's Day 1 stuff for any evidence or hints of scum and... I didn't really find much. It actually made me realize that Otter's been pretty consistant the whole game. His interaction with Tom was minimal at best, which in the end gave a null read.

It did also bring this comment from Excal to my attention:

Actually, Otter.  It's less a question of you hating the new players, and more a belief that your style of play, especially as scum, is one of the main reasons why Mafia is dying off here.  But that's an argument for a different thread.

These kinds of personal attacks never help. Even Day 1 they have no place in argumentation and only serve to get people riled (there was a lot of that kind of stuff Day 1 as a matter of fact. Corwin and Rat's spat to mention another instance).

Even End of Day 1, Otter had voted Excal and was pretty sure on him, so there wasn't much he could have done in that instance... hmm...

I also totally forgot Corwin when calling out lurkers. Granted, he's posted now, but this kind of forgetability is concerning.

NINJA'D by Andy: On Ryogo, you're right. If you read back through Day 1, his thought processes go from Newbie to Solid very quickly.

Excal

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #258 on: March 31, 2008, 09:08:24 AM »
Alright, this post is here to say that I am alive.

The last few days have been full, and given that everyone was jumping on me for bad logic, I figured that I probably wasn't the party in the right, and so decided on rest/recovery instead of trying to continue on in the fray, especially considering that my best seemed to consist of taking a shovel and digging deeper with every go.

Right now, I'm simply getting caught up, and will likely be followed up by a second reread once I've seen the full revelations as they occur.  Also, the reread will be used to skim out questions for me.  That said, I will state this.  Monday's posting was done on three hours sleep, eight hours work, and in the middle of a particularily bad patch of bronchitis (Same thing Ciato's suffering through).  I didn't mention this before because I didn't want to claim illness as a reason for being off kilter, had too much bloody pride, and looking back in a more healthful light, realised I was probably deluding myself to some degree.

That said, I will endeavour to give a full and detailed answer to all inquiries sent my way, as well as hopefully garner some fresh insights.  I didn't expect to still be around, and I do not wish to squander the fact that I still am.

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #259 on: March 31, 2008, 09:18:39 AM »
Had a bit of free time at work, posting this earlier than expected.

Otter: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13973#msg13973

Quote
Well, it's awesome that we hit scum, but the info we got from Tom=scum (being that Keeshi seems reliable, though she still could have been bussing) is immediately rendered useless

How so, Otter? How could a confirmed cop be 'bussing' scum?

Andrew: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13976#msg13976

Quote
OK has stepped up massively, which is a good thing!

I'm inclined to agree. It doesn't eliminate my previous suspicions against him, but I don't seem him as a lurker now. Plus, there are people more suspicious than he at this point.

Shale: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13977#msg13977

Quote
To answer your question, I didn't like letting a no-paper-trail cop claim decide the lynch, one way or the other. The person who'd acted scummiest was Excal, so I kept my vote there.

Uhh, what? Are you serious? In the situation that we had, one of those two had to be scum barring madness! Even if we voted blindly, that's a 50/50 chance of hitting scum, perhaps 100% if bussing were involved to deflect attention from Keeshi! The chances of hitting scum elsewhere are far smaller, and not as informative whereas deciding the cop claim/scum result would've assuredly hit scum next day (town Tom would've resulted in a scum Keeshi lynch, and town Keeshi's lynch in scum Tom's).

Yeah, I don't like it either, but we had no choice but to decide between them right then and there. One of them was assuredly scum, and that scum could have had powers that would hurt us! (Tom had, we were shown by his flip) We couldn't let the scum live! So what if Excal looked scummier to you? That's entirely irrelevant to who should've hanged the previous day (except in where you could comb his posts and his interactions with both Keeshi and Tom to help you decide). No, no, no.

Ditto for Otter with his "See Shale, really.  I didn't trust Keeshi, but I thought Excal was more likely to be scum." (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13989#msg13989)

...right. "I didn't trust Keeshi" should translate into KEESHI IS SCUM AND I MUST VOTE HER when combined with Keeshi claiming cop and fingering Tom as scum!

The reason I'm going over these reactions is that it's not just example of bad, horrible play (which it certainly is), but that it certainly looks interesting after the flips. There's more than one scum in the game. Scum would certainly know who's telling the truth here. Trying to get Excal lynched by ignoring Tom and Keeshi could have been part of a strategy to keep Tom in the game longer (why bother? because he had roleblock, perhaps?). Naturally, attacking Keeshi right after her claim would've turned bad for them; her flip as a cop would really put them under an unfavorable light, and they would know as scum she had no reason to lie about her role. In fact, fingering Tom pretty much confirms it. Wouldn't it be just safer to delay the decision, have Keeshi roleblocked, and then try to lynch her where she'd seem all the more suspicious and it'd be far safer?

Of course, this theory isn't compatible with the one where Excal is suspicious due to a bizarre lack of assosiation with Tom in his last post. I just can't see a gambit like this which also involves sacrificing Excal-as-scum. I don't want to limit myself by going "Well, ONE of those must be true" but it does seem quite likely, so I'll use that as a working basis for the moment, until and unless there's more information available.

Otter: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14053#msg14053

Let's say there's a paranoid cop. Are you willing to leave the issue unresolved, in that case? All this achieves is dividing us into two camps, those who rightly can't ignore a cop claim with a scum result, and those who believe a player is scummy based on no flips (essentially, not much different than during day 1!). That, in turn, makes you and those who think like you look more suspicious to the rest of us, and if you're really town, one of your main obligations is to not act scummy so we won't waste time on you as we hunt for scum.

So I remain as unconvinced as you are. That was bad play. The only question was whether there was a scummy element involved, and that's what I'm trying to decide right now.

Sopko: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14058#msg14058

Eww, massive block of quotes. Was that really necessary?

Anyway. You don't sound quite committed to anything. Your arguments read... reserved, for lack of a better word ('certain amount of risk', 'less inclined', 'somewhat goes against'). Who do you think should get the axe and why? Are there others you find suspicious enough to name them as candidates? Do you see any links between a possible scum team?

Otter: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14075#msg14075

Quote
Cor: I understand your objection, but look at it this way.  First of all, in a 13-player game, I'm not going to dismiss the possibility of a paranoid or insane cop (again: insane cops can actually be helpful to town, so it wouldn't shock me to see one used even by a mod who was actively avoiding role madness). 

I touched upon this above. Even though we disagree on the likelihood of this scenario, I still believe that simply leaving the matter unresolved is bad play and generally a recipe for badness. By putting it off for an Excal lynch, when will we get to resolve Tom/Keeshi? During LYLO?

Quote
Next, let's say I had accepted that there was no chance of a paranoid/insane cop, meaning one of Keeshi and Tom had to be scum.  I still didn't have a very clear read on those two; Keeshi was my second favorite to lynch, but I was still uncertain about her:

Quote from: Otter
I think Excal's actions have been more damning, overall, to the point where I'm having a really hard time imagining an explanation for his actions if he were actually innocent.  Keeshi looks bad herself, and would be my second choice to lynch right now, but I can still sort of see how it could happen if she had good intentions; not so for Excal.  I'm leaving my vote on the player that seems most likely to turn up scum.

To put it another way: okay, so let's say one of Keeshi or Tom has to be scum.  Offhand, I'll say I was estimating maybe a 70% chance for Keeshi to be the scum between them, as I saw the case against her pretty clearly but also could see understandable reasons for her scumtells if she was telling the truth.  That would mean I saw roughly a 30% chance for Tom to be scum.

Now we're following the scenario I considered most likely, of what is there barring game madness. Your percentages are off. It's not 70/30/90-95 for Excal (I didn't quote the Excal part since it would've inflated the quote too much, but the context is above and the link is present for those wishing to check it out). It is, in fact, 100% for Keeshi+Tom, and we get our answer after one of them flips. Let me repeat it, a guaranteed certainty (barring game madness, a scenario we tackled in the previous point) that one of those two is scum and we'll hit scum.

But what about Excal, you might say. What about Excal? If he's also scum, having revealed his scumbuddy(ies) we should have more information to judge him by.

Quote
Are you really saying I should have voted Keeshi here, when it seemed significantly more likely to me that Excal was scum?

Yes. Most certainly, without reservation. If you believed Tom over Keeshi, you should've voted Keeshi to resolve the situation, and then used the flip and other evidence we'll have gathered by then to go after Excal if your case were still supported after the resolution of the Tom/Keeshi mess.

This seems like a good stopping point as I've almost caught up, and I don't want to type up tl;dr posts.

Things I found generally of note:
-Alex seems to think Excal less rather than more suspicious based on Tom's posts. Huh.
-Ryogo's latest posts have been 'headache/booze/whatever excuse' and apologies for not doing more, as well as such contradictions as 'I don't know what to think anymore' and 'my logic was spot on'.
-Alex seems to be mischaracterizing Tom's behavior as pushing for an Excal lynch, when it reads more that he was joining a bandwagon.

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #260 on: March 31, 2008, 09:55:42 AM »
Quote from: Alex
I honestly don't have any idea what contradictions Otter says he's bringing up that I haven't addressed.  I answered all the points he made and haven't seen him raise any other "serious objections" besides trying to equate Excal vs OK with Keeshi vs Tom, which as I said before is completely wrong due to the cop claim involved.

Where exactly did I equate Excal vs. OK with Keeshi vs. Tom?

As for the contradictions you didn't answer:

Quote from: Alex
At a glance my suspicions are leaning towards Otter specifically, and generally towards those who seconded suspicions of Excal.
Here you're accusing me purely on the grounds that I was suspicious of Excal; "he was suspicious of someone I think is a townie now" is not a valid argument, and if it were, you'd be scummy for ever having been suspicious of Keeshi.

Quote from: Alex
Failing to vote on a duality like that is, IMO, a definite scumtell
when you were the only player who stayed away from the duality on day 1.

Quote from: Alex
Otter has not posted much in general, even admitting as much.  What he has posted has mostly been quoting and agreeing with other people.  He was and remains heavily on the Excal wagon
Here you're acting as if I didn't start the Excal wagon, accusing me of only agreeing with other people.  For most of the game now I've been on the Excal case, which I was the first to make; that hardly makes me a passive player who's only "quoting and agreeing with other people."  And it's strange for you to call me out on not posting much, because you've been lower in both postcount and content from the beginning.

I called you on all of those and you didn't respond to any of them.  You've at least addressed the issue of why you think Excal's cleared, which I also called you on.

Quote from: Alex
We know for a fact Keeshi was town.  Granted, Tom did not actually show up again to lay a vote down - but he didn't vote OK either, and in the cross between Excal and OK he was clearly on Excal.  His immediate vote on Excal day 2 backs this up further - if Excal was scum, why wouldn't Tom go after OK instead?  At the time Tom placed his vote, the day 2 status was 3 on Excal and 1 on OK.  That's hardly a must-bus bandwagon.

And it's more WIFOM.  For one thing, it was only a few hours into the day, and Tom had no reason to believe anybody would push for a hammer immediately.  He had every opportunity to remove that Excal vote before a lynch happened -- and he did get that opportunity, and switched his vote accordingly.  You also make a telling slip: "if Excal was scum, why wouldn't Tom go after OK instead?"  Not only are you making WIFOM assumptions about what scum would do, you're assuming OK must be town, which we haven't established at all.  You'd only know that if you were scum yourself, which I'm starting to think is more likely than not.  Your decision to operate under the blanket assumption that Excal must be town, based only on Tom's day 1 comments and his non-committal day 2 vote, is a foolish one and ignores Excal's behavior completely.

Quote from: Alex
I've had problems with Excal's behavior, yes (he definitely does need to post more!)

And here you're quietly dismissing all of Excal's other scumtells by mentioning only his (massive) lurking.  In fact, let me see.  Alex threw a 2nd vote on Excal (Soppy's was first) on the very first page; since it was a 2nd vote, it had a little more weight than your basic jokevote, but he quickly got rid of the vote without following up on Excal at all, and never paid any attention to Excal's behavior (or pays any attention to his contradictions early in the game, which I noted) for the rest of the game.  He mentioned that "the Excal/Shale" debate was drawing most of his suspicion, at one point, but he left his vote on Shale, then dropped it completely when he made his case on Keeshi, after which he stuck on Keeshi and only really discussed her for the rest of the day... except for a random aside to Excal:

Quote from: Alex
Quote from: Excal
Alex, I think the more interesting thing we're discovering here is that you feel that we should all think like you think.

Caught my interest here.  Yes, absolutely, that is the underlying assumption behind making arguments to sway people towards a given viewpoint.  It is what the persuasion part of the game is all about.  Obviously not everyone's going to agree with me on everything, but it would be utopia and instant win if you did!  Really it would!  And you'd say the same back to me and try to get me thinking the way you do... I hope.

I get very suspicious when there seems to be a disconnect between what a person thinks for themselves and what they try (or don't try) to convince other people of.  This is because scum are naturally arguing from such a disconnect - they have to attack and call scummy players they know for a fact are not, and often try to hedge or ply multiple viewpoints.

This little back-and-forth has no substance to it; no votes are changing place, nothing's really going on, Excal just randomly takes a shot at Alex with no relation to him being scum or not and then Alex has a perfect reply ready.  It sort of looks like they're arguing, but they're not, and neither one follows up on it at all.  What it most looks like to me is a perfunctory scumbuddy attempt at establishing the fact that they're "not associated" for future reference.  However, neither one really raises anything even vaguely serious about the other.

Also, neither one says one word about Tom all day.  In fact, Excal still hasn't said a thing about Tom, but that may have to do with how he hasn't been saying anything in days 2 or 3.

All cards on the table, it looks a lot to me like Excal and Alex are scumbuddies.  I've been sure about Excal already, and Alex wouldn't have ignored Excal's early contradictions or handwaved his extreme lurking just because Tom put a vote on him early in day 2 and then took it off.  He also wouldn't have made so many blunders (as listed above) or been evasive when I called him on them.  It's also conspicuous that neither had a word to say about Tom through day 1, and their early interactions look contrived to me, as secondary evidence.

Corwin

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #261 on: March 31, 2008, 10:13:48 AM »
Tom's posts.

The first one lays a vote on Shale (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13148#msg13148). It's a jokevote, but the next post Tom goes "Joke-vote phase is boring. Ok, onto the issues:" and yet keeps his 'jokevote' on Shale. (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13208#msg13208)

He comments on Shale there only tangentially, at best, and it isn't phrased as a way to support his vote in what is now a serious atmosphere, past the joke stage.

Third post (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13276#msg13276): Cheerleading, mentions Andrew and Smodge and keeps the vote on Shale.

Fourth post (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13339#msg13339): Attacks Rat while relying on Shale's arguments. Comments on other people who are not Shale. Vote on Shale remains.

Fifth post (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13367#msg13367): Short. No unvote in sight.

It took Tom till his sixth post to unvote Shale. (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13448#msg13448) All while laying no case on him despite the transition into serious discussion, Tom acknowledging it has occured, and being there and active. No explanation is given for unvoting Shale, such as a realization he should have done that sooner, any mention of Shale's innocence in his eyes or even a new target for the vote.

Post 7 (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13503#msg13503): No Shale mention, no votes. Tom mentions considering Excal and Keeshi, who were both players with cases on them at the time.

Post 8 (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13708#msg13708): Cites Shale again while providing nothing original himself, and places a vote on Shale's target.

Post 9 (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13726#msg13726): a post on Keeshi.

Post 10 (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13874#msg13874): Keeshi accuses Tom, Tom snaps back at her with a vote.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13875#msg13875 -- brought just for completeness's sake.

The trend I'm seeing here is Tom doing his best to tie himself to Shale. And based on his voting pattern, I believe this actually goes towards clearing Shale. The way he kept the vote on Shale feels as if he were hoping other people could join him. At least there's something out of a glance at Tom's posts.

<--->

Comments on the recent posts:

Andrew (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14078#msg14078), I would like to ask you the following question, given that Ryogo appears to be one of your two prime candidates (Three with Excal? Please make that clearer, too.). "Say Ryogo is scum, what does that tell us?"

Sopko (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14080#msg14080): I can't help hammer coming in just as I was starting to type up my post. Here's Alex's final vote (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13902#msg13902) and the timestamp on it: « Reply #231 on: March 30, 2008, 08:17:30 AM »

Given that I get to work around 8am (give or take half an hour), and that day it was 8:10am, I couldn't do much about that. If you can find other instances of me 'lurking', do please say so.

Excal (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14081#msg14081): "That said, I will endeavour to give a full and detailed answer to all inquiries sent my way"

Okay. I would like to hear your opinion on the matter of OK, Otter and Shale staying on you instead of deciding the cop/scum claim the previous day. Do you agree with me that it was a bad call (and not because you were the alternate lynch target)? If so, do you believe it was scummy, perhaps as part of a strategy I theorized about? If so, which of them would look the scummiest to you?

Question 2. With Tom's flip as scum, do you believe it reflects on someone we haven't covered yet in our analysis of his posts, votes and actions?

Otter (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14083#msg14083):

Quote
Where exactly did I equate Excal vs. OK with Keeshi vs. Tom?

Say, here?

Quote
Quote from: Alex
Failing to vote on a duality like that is, IMO, a definite scumtell
when you were the only player who stayed away from the duality on day 1.

I think it's telling that you are doing it to a degree. But it's not nearly enough for a vote, as far as I'm concerned.

Quote
You also make a telling slip: "if Excal was scum, why wouldn't Tom go after OK instead?"  Not only are you making WIFOM assumptions about what scum would do, you're assuming OK must be town, which we haven't established at all.

This is true, regardless of my suspicions of you, and I'd like to hear an explanation for this from Alex.

Quote
All cards on the table, it looks a lot to me like Excal and Alex are scumbuddies.

To clarify, what are you proposing, here? Lynching Excal, and if he flips scum, then lynching Alex?

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #262 on: March 31, 2008, 10:23:36 AM »
Quote from: Corwin
But what about Excal, you might say. What about Excal? If he's also scum, having revealed his scumbuddy(ies) we should have more information to judge him by.

The thing is, there's a pretty decent chance we could have chosen wrong between Keeshi and Tom, and that means we eat a mislynch before getting a successful lynch in.  But hey, that's all right because we can afford to trade 1 townie for 1 scum, right?

No.  It's actually more like 3 townies for 1 scum, because scum gets a nightkill for each lynch.  That doesn't sound good to me and I wasn't really eager to risk it, but I would have, if only to resolve the situation, except Excal was staring me in the face as an option I was much more sure on than either of them.  To me, the very slight chance that I'd misjudged Excal was insignificant, understandably I think; Excal was as close to a sure thing as I was going to get.  Voting for anyone but him would have violated "Thou shalt not suffer scum to live," because he was and is more confirmed as scum than either of Keeshi or Tom.

---

I'm leaving my vote on Excal because I think his ultra-lurking, coupled with his flimsy excuse for it ("I figured that I probably wasn't the party in the right, and so decided on rest/recovery instead of trying to continue on in the fray, especially considering that my best seemed to consist of taking a shovel and digging deeper with every go"... in other words, he didn't want to keep talking because he realized that he was only digging himself in deeper and preferred avoiding conversation to "recover" rather than confront any of the issues.  Yeeeeeah), continue to make him the most likely player to be scum.

I think Alex is almost as likely to be scum as Excal, now, but at least he's been saying stuff, although he's gained Excal's habit of ignoring contradictions in their own posts when they've been pointed out.  Nobody else in the game comes close to looking as scummy as either of them to me, and since I'm guessing we started with about 3 scum (for 13 total players; 4 would be too many and 2 would be too few, IMO), the reason is that nobody else is scum; they're the remaining scum team.  I've gone on the attack from the beginning, I've noted all the inconsistent behavior I've seen, and with a few exceptions (Keeshi's poor logic, a little bit of unnecessary evasion from Soppy) it's all come from those two sources.  Looking back over the game so far has only made me even more certain.

I've been doing the lion's share of the talking today, and now my case is out, referenced, and supported by evidence.  I was the first to vote today and I stand by that vote.  As of right now, the only votes I see active are mine (on Excal) and Alex's (on me); it's about time some other players caught up, gave some clear opinions, and actually put some votes down so we're not rushing this in at the last minute.

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #263 on: March 31, 2008, 10:28:06 AM »
Quote from: Corwin
Quote from: Otter
Where exactly did I equate Excal vs. OK with Keeshi vs. Tom?

Say, here?

Uh, where?

Quote from: Corwin
To clarify, what are you proposing, here? Lynching Excal, and if he flips scum, then lynching Alex?

No, Excal flipping scum wouldn't "confirm" Alex any more than Alex's actions already have.  It's not "if Excal flips scum, Alex must be too!"  It's more that they both look incredibly scummy and I'd support a lynch for either one right now.  If the lynch result brought about a ton of surprising new information that changed everything, I'd obviously have to re-evaluate.

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #264 on: March 31, 2008, 10:36:25 AM »
I suppose one of the nice things about being hunted by Otter is the fact that he does lay out his arguments nicely, so it's easy to look at them and figure out exactly what you're being accused of.  Of course, it also makes them harder to defend against, but that'll come up later.

So, Otter.  You've been waiting a while for a proper defense from me.  I'll start off with why you didn't get one before.  The first bit, the self-contradictory stance against Ryogo, was meant to be a risky maneuver that very well might backfire and catch some flak in my direction.  I honestly had no issue with being a target early in day one, if people got talking.  However, how I worded things in my attempts to clear up what I had attempted to do were far less lucid than the original idea (which is impressive, as the original idea wasn't that hot to begin with) and so I left a muddy trail where a defter hand was needed.

When you called me on this, my response was not to refute your words, but to let them slide.  I came to this decision for three reasons.  The first is, I honestly felt that there was no worthwhile defense I could offer.  When I read them, my conclusion was that if I didn't have my PM as proof that you were wrong, I'd likely agree with you.  Second, was that I felt the situation was such that no words I had would dissuade you.  Finally, I know my habit of liking to talk about myself, and wanted to avoid that if possible.  As such, I wanted to minimise any defense I would make as the defense is all about talking of oneself and ones thoughts.

And so, I brushed off your inquiries with all of the skill and tact that had brought them down upon me with such force and moved on to step two.  Find Scum and present my findings.  On day one.  While I wasn't able to think clearly (not that I was admitting this to myself).  Naturally, such genius could not possibly fail.  And so I flailed about like a fish out of water for the rest of that day, eventually settling on OK due to LAL, and then staying on OK after that reason fell apart because he was the only viable lynch candidate that wasn't me.  That said, I am glad that I was at work when the day ended, as I don't think I would have enjoyed having to make the choice between no lynch, or lynching myself.

Finally, on Day 2, I made just the one post, and then withdrew because I realised that all I was doing was hurting my side by posting, and the best thing I could do would be to withdraw until I figured out what was wrong in my head, got it back together a bit, and had more free time.

So, that is the whole of why I did not answer before.  Now, let's move on to the specifics, shall we?  I'll deal with the issues raised in the three posts Otter linked to in his recent post calling for my lynch.

Right now, though?  Excal.

Quote from: Excal
Ryogo, you're still four votes away from hammer.  And oddly enough, even if those four votes were sitting in my back pocket, I've somehow refrained from using them.

I thought this line was weird when I first read it, but didn't bring it up because there wasn't a whole lot to say about it.  I just actually examined what Excal's been doing all game, though, and while he's casting himself as the conscientious discussion-starting townie, he's also displaying a habit of not standing by anything he says.

Quote from: Excal
Rat, you wound me!  You make it sound like I ever meant poor Ryogo any harm.

Quote from: Excal
That vote, along with the pressure I laid on the people who didn't find it suspicious [my emphasis], was there entirely to get people talking.  And, with the possible exception of Tom, I'm honestly finding it a bit worrysome that some people still think I was seriously after him.

"I pushed Ryogo closer to danger to stimulate discussion!  Now discuss, presumably about why I did that or why I shouldn't have!  But don't act like I was seriously trying to put him in danger."  The contradiction here is in plain sight.  You want the idea of that third vote on one person to get discussion started, but you don't want anyone to make the mistake of acting like that was a real vote.  Early vote pileups only create talk because there's a reason for them and they supposedly signify actual danger!  If the threat was fake and your lack of commitment to the vote was manifest (which you're now claiming it plainly was, even casting aspersions on anyone who's still acting like it was "serious"), then what were we supposed to say about it?

I endorse getting early trains started to stimulate discussion, but that works because there's some meaning to, say, that third vote early on.  Excal immediately went out of his way afterwards to assure everybody that the third vote was just a utility to start things, like a jokevote; if that's the case, why should anyone have treated it any differently?  We're not going to take it more seriously than you do.

Excal's followed a repeating pattern here:  "Rather than make a jokevote I'll vote Ryogo due to early name claim" --> "Nah that was just to start talk!  Why'd you guys let it go without mention though?" --> "Hey, guess what, I was only needling you guys about not taking me seriously enough to respond... in order to start discussion!  Haha, that's right, you can't call me on it after all, I was being a good townie!  Why are you guys acting like I was really going after Ryogo though?  Surely you aren't taking that vote seriously?"  By revealing his earlier insincerity after the fact with an oh-that-should-have-been-obvious attitude and then criticizing people for how they reacted or didn't react, he's playing "Gotcha!" with the entire town and this confusion isn't good for us at all.

It also sets a precedent for Excal being allowed to contradict himself at will, which is basically what he's been doing.  Then he comes in with this "earlier draft" post with a non-comment to Shale, gets called on it, and responds but conspicuously doesn't say what he was going to tell Shale he was looking forward to, even though that's exactly what Rat asked about.  He's retracted his easy-to-justify, very-safe smodge vote now that there's modkill on the table and no reason for it anymore, and now he's sitting with no vote out at all.  There's a lot going on here and nobody's called him out with a vote yet, so I'm going to.

##VOTE: Excal

Yeah.  Not much to say to the heart of this.  I tried to do something good, but my logic used in executing it, and in explaining it afterwards, were horribly flawed.  I can't justify it beyond saying I didn't think it through all the way.

As for the second point, the earlier draft post is exactly that.  It had a comment I never intended for public consumption because I didn't like where that line of thought was leading and discarded it.  It's just that this time, it wasn't erased and hid out of sight to make it into the final draft.  The core of the Smodge vote and no vote at the time was basically on the fact that at that point in time, I didn't find anyone scummy, and was looking for someone on whom to rest my vote.


Alex, I think the more interesting thing we're discovering here is that you feel that we should all think like you think.  I can understand where Keeshi is coming from, given that I don't find anyone overly scummy at the moment either, and the decision to go with lynching the lurkers when nothing else concrete is at hand is a sensable and acceptable alternative.

That said...

##Unvote: Andy, ##Vote: Keeshi

I don't like the fact that Andy's response was the same thing that I was already calling bunk on, but I get the impression he's not going to budge from there.  So, while it leaves a bad taste in my mouth, it's not something to move on right now.

However, Keeshi, Alex has raised an excellent point in his first post against you, and it is one which you haven't addressed to any length yet.  Why do you suggest letting Andy swing in the same post where you admit that you will indefinatly share the same flaw he has until Saturday?

Okay!  So Excal starts by calling Keeshi's decision here sensible and acceptable, when Alex has demonstrated that it amounts to random lynch insofar as likelihood of actually nailing scum is concerned, and random lynch is an absolute death sentence for town.  To be clear here, this isn't Lynch All Lurkers, this is "Lynch Andrew because he revealed even before the game started that he'd have limited availability."  In fact, let's let Keeshi put that in her own words:

Quote from: Keeshi
I agree.  Which is why I've been saying that it is not due to his current 'low quantity'.  He has found the time today to make a substantive amount of posts.  This is, of course, all to the good.  What I based my vote off of, again, is his statement that he believes himself able to make a single post every 24 hours usually  (until his time eases up when the weekend arrives).

So, I reiterate: this isn't LAL, she even admits he's been substantive today.  It's voting on somebody for a factor totally unrelated to whether or not they might actually be scum, which is the same as a random lynch.  Mathematically, town opting for random lynch is not a "strategy," it doesn't have its ups and downs, it's just surrender pure and simple.  Suggesting that we choose to lynch based on these factors (rather than actually hunt scum) is easily as bad or worse than advocating for no lynch, and Excal is calling this sensible and acceptable, while misrepresenting it as "lynching the lurkers" (which isn't what it is at all).

Let's pretend for a second, though, that this wasn't already incredibly anti-town!  Excal's called this reason for voting for people legitimate, already.  Now, he votes for Keeshi for voting for Andrew on this reasoning, citing the fact that Keeshi has the same (apparently vote-worthy, given Excal's agreement earlier in the same post) flaw herself.  This would be ludicrous even if the reason for voting made any town sense originally: obviously you're not going to vote for yourself whether you're townie or not, because if you really are a townie, that gives you absolutely no chance of hitting scum regardless of what tells you may have of your own.  If I've got some potentially voteworthy flaw and someone else does too, is it really so surprising that I'd vote for the other guy?

So, recap: Excal's supporting Keeshi's anti-town essentially random-lynch policy (which is -not- to be confused with LAL, because she clearly states that a lack of content from Andrew in-game so far is not her reason), but saying she shouldn't be voting for other people on this reason, because she has that problem herself and indefinitely.

Now.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13357#msg13357

That's a post I made attacking Excal for his two-faced attitude, which was essentially him contradicting himself at will and revising which posts of his that he actually meant compared to which ones were "just to start discussion" and then calling people suspicious for not understanding that his words shouldn't be taken seriously when he's said afterwards that he wasn't serious.  His entire defense against that whole post was as follows:

Quote from: Excal
Otter, I'm not going to defend my duality.  I've said my piece, and it is either enough or not.  As for why I did take steps to ensure that there was no miscommunication after the purpose of the two-face argument was done, that was mostly so that Ryogo didn't get too antsy.  After all, you might like increasing the pressure on people until they break, but I don't generally believe that posters here are akin to trylobytes and thrive under vast amounts of pressure, and would rather not start a campaign of driving off the new guys.  At least, not yet.

It's a "I'm not going to stoop to defending myself here" followed by a tangent into "Hey, unlike you, I don't hate all the new players" while avoiding addressing anything I brought up with any specificity.

The only reason I'm not capping this post off with a vote for Excal is that my vote's already on him.

This passage regarding Keeshi does an excellent job of showing why I needed to take some time to get my head together.  As some of you may recall (in fact, Shale specifically called me on it) I claimed that I did not agree with Keeshi in the specifics Otter is claiming I did here.  And this was used as more evidence of my contradictory nature.

Looking at the quote properly, yeah.  There's no way I can expect someone to believe me in that claim, as what I wrote doesn't begin to convey what I was thinking.  And I'm not entirely sure how I figured that was the best way to state my case.

That said, my actions were consistant with my beliefs, even as you place the weight on that mangled sentance (and yes, I do admit that it was mangled by myself.  It does a poor job of conveying the information I meant it to contain by actively meaning something else.)

Namely, at that time, I was not entirely agreeing that Alex's interpretation was the only way to read Keeshi's train of logic.  It was certainly one way, but one issue I have with Alex is that he has a habit of finding the worst way to read a person's statements at times, and then treating them as the true intent of a statement, even if it were just an unfortunate meaning that was never intended.  This is a flaw due to holding us all to a higher standard of play that I think we're all consistantly capable of, and feel it's something that often leads to a worse position for town.  That said, while I found the general principle cited by Keeshi to both be more valiant and less malign than Alex saw it, I also found this specific instance of it to be questionable, and peppered my wonder with a vote in order to a) emphasize it, b) have a vote out as I dislike not having a vote out on day 1, and c) hopefully placate your concern that I don't have a vote out.

As for the side swipe I took at you.  I will state that, yes, I do have some issues with how you have played scum in the past.  But, they should never have come up here in this context.  I respectfully apologise for being so rude and hypocritical as to make such comments in a forum that is both entirely unrelated and also thoroughly public.

And finally the third post.

Excak, you're being intentionally misleading.  Keeshi is not talking about LAL, and when you agree with her reasoning, you are not agreeing to LAL.

Already covered above.


Quote
Quote from: Excal
I can understand where Keeshi is coming from, given that I don't find anyone overly scummy at the moment either, and the decision to go with lynching the lurkers when nothing else concrete is at hand is a sensable and acceptable alternative.

You say that as if Keeshi is talking about lynching people for actually lurking, which she isn't.  Then!

Quote from: Excal
I disagree wholly with the argument for why Keeshi is voting for Andy.

I'm not twisting this around somehow.  This is simply Excal continuing to contradict himself blatantly.

Quote from: Excal
You're either putting words into my mouth, or are so sure of yourself that you're deluding yourself.

Oh yeah?  Which is it then?  I've been quoting you directly this whole time.  If I'm deluding myself into thinking something about you that isn't correct, point that part out.

Quote from: Excal
I'm not sure which it is you're actually doing, but it is fascinating to watch.

Quote from: Excal
I do find your utter opposition to it entrancing given how often you've mentioned the viability of the tactic of over stating your position in order to put pressure on people.

The funny thing about calling my attacks "fascinating" and "entrancing" is that it's not a defense.  It's just you trying to handwave everything I say.  Then you make something up about my supposed stance on "over stating your position," which I've never heard anything about.  Are you implying that I've advocated town lying and contradicting itself in the past?  Because I haven't.  I'm pressuring you right now, simply by observing all the contradictions in your posts and demanding explanations from you, and your response is basically to go "Oh that's very interesting."

You're right.  You weren't twisting my words, I just didn't go back and read them, and thought them actually representative of what I thought.  ie. We were arguing in a situation where neither one understood the other, and I wasn't being rational about it.  I cannot defend against this post, as I am clearly in the wrong.  The defense I made against the second post above will have to suffice as the proper defense I should have made before, and I surrender the first defense as both lacking, and harmful to my side.

Now, there is my defense against Otter's claims.  It has taken a good chunk of time, and I still need sleep.  Expect a full on post tomorrow with my thoughts on others, as well as responces to Shale, OK, and any others who have levied charges and queries against me, tomorrow when I am well rested, and have had time to let my thoughts dwell on this topic.

Edit for Corwin:

My initial thought is that, yes.  If you're not going to side one way or the other, you should at least say why.  That said, it's the people who not only didn't side one way or the other (after all, hammer will come before some people can make up their mind) but who also stand by not going after one of the two that look worse.  After all, not changing your vote could be scumminess or indecisiveness.  But, trying to deflect attention by not picking either, and not mentioning your reason for it at the time, that doesn't look good.

Now, I will admit, I haven't looked closely at OK or Shale yet, though I remember having a decent impression of Shale, and not much of one on OK, aside from his taking a while to show up.  But, Otter catches my eye for showing up there after also passing the hammer on Day 1.  He also doesn't mention the sanity possibilities when it could have delayed the lynch and done some good, but only afterwards when he is now justifying why he claimed it better to go after a third party instead of one of the two people in the spotlight.  The fact that he's doing this two days in a row seems questionable to me.

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #265 on: March 31, 2008, 10:36:36 AM »
Alex says: Failing to vote on a duality like that is, IMO, a definite scumtell

You continue: when you were the only player who stayed away from the duality on day 1.

That's not "equat[ing] Excal vs. OK with Keeshi vs. Tom?" Certainly looked that way to me. I'll repeat. "I think it's telling that you are doing it to a degree."

Moving on. As Excal has shown up recently, I see no problems with waiting until he responds to the points I've raised, plus adds whatever independent content he wishes. I will use those along with the case laid out against him to decide whether my vote should go his way.

Re: yourself (as in, Otter), I still think you look scummy, in part because of your actions the previous day. However, we've gone over that enough, and I don't feel there's much left to be said there. Again, I'll quote my previous post as I say that you look scummy to me, "But it's not nearly enough for a vote, as far as I'm concerned."

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #266 on: March 31, 2008, 11:47:28 AM »
Cor: Ah, I see what's meant by that now at least.  However, I don't think pointing out that there were two clear options on day 1 and Alex was the only player with a vote down who didn't pick one of them is the same thing as saying "Excal vs. OK was the same as Keeshi vs. Tom."  The duality between Keeshi and Tom, as you say, was a different kind of duality (due to the cop claim in play).  This still doesn't explain Alex's decision to stay away from the two serious options on day 1, though; he sticks with his Keeshi case even when it's just him, quite unwilling to drop a vote that could have actually proven decisive.

Conversely, at the end of day 2, he was happy to drop a hammer without hesitation, even though there was still a lot of time left in the day.  If he'd gotten it wrong, that would have looked pretty bad; after all, he was hammering so quickly that Tom didn't get so much as a second post in after Keeshi fingered him.  Now, if he'd been genuinely serious about his Keeshi=scum case right then (remember, he'd been making this case all day without relent), he'd therefore think it pretty likely that Tom was innocent.  If that's so, why was he so comfortable dropping the quick hammer, with his image very much at stake?  I can think of a reason: his image wasn't at stake.  As a fellow scum, he wasn't uncertain about Tom at all, but was confident that hammering him would turn out fine because it was a scumbus.

---

Excal's finally acknowledged my outstanding issues with him from day 1!  And in the process has gone over pretty much all of his actions all game and called them "horribly flawed," "I can't justify it," "mangled" and so on and so on.  The post reads more like a giant concession than a defense, which, while preferable to no recognition of the case on him at all, doesn't really deal with his scumtells; rather, it's just an apology for them.

Quote from: Excal
When you called me on this, my response was not to refute your words, but to let them slide.  I came to this decision for three reasons.  The first is, I honestly felt that there was no worthwhile defense I could offer.  When I read them, my conclusion was that if I didn't have my PM as proof that you were wrong, I'd likely agree with you.  Second, was that I felt the situation was such that no words I had would dissuade you.  Finally, I know my habit of liking to talk about myself, and wanted to avoid that if possible.  As such, I wanted to minimise any defense I would make as the defense is all about talking of oneself and ones thoughts.

This is where he justifies not talking, not answering my call-outs, and not participating in the discussion, again.  It's similar to the bit a little earlier about how he decided to rest/recover rather than dig himself any deeper by, you know, actually talking.  The thing is, this is extremely scummyConversation helps town, and if prolonged conversation only seems to dig you deeper and deeper and you've got no way to explain your way out of it... odds are, you're scum caught in a genuine contradiction!  Most townies don't do crazy things which even they themselves couldn't adequately explain the logic for, and running away isn't how townies deal with problems if they actually want to win.  I appreciate that you've cleared out the backlog a fair bit by finally recognizing my original charges, but there had to be a reason you didn't want to talk about anything before now, and the defense you've finally presented isn't really a defense.

Excal still looks terrible to me, honestly, but at least he's here at last, and with the point about Alex I noted above, Excal doesn't look worse than him to me anymore.  I'd say they're about equal at this point.  It's been 24 hours and there's still a whole lot of votes that haven't been cast yet; I think we should start making voting decisions sooner than later, because if we keep putting it off, we run the risk of getting stuck in a panic at the very end of the day and that always helps scum.  I'll reiterate and say that I fully support Alex or Excal lynch right now.

OblivionKnight

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #267 on: March 31, 2008, 12:39:00 PM »
Since I saw a question posed to me before I got my post of doom typed up, I'll answer that first.

Corwin: I fully understand what you mean.  I wanted to see Keeshi's answers before I switched my vote around.  I had no suspicions of Tom before (granted, no strong opinion on him either way), and didn't want to nuke a cop claim with a vote, when it could potentially be true.  We had plenty of time before hammer, and Keeshi had said she'd be back ("I'll go do some errands and be back this afternoon to answer any questions that pop up while I'm gone").  Now, it appears something happened in that time period, but I had figured in a few hours, I'd have answers, and be able to jump my vote with more information.  Would I have jumped to Tom had Keeshi answered?  Very likely yes - don't nuke a cop claim, and while I had no real suspicions of Tom earlier, I didn't have any strong positive opinions on him, while Keeshi had at least proven herself competent and vocal, giving me a good opinion of her.  Had we hit deadline and needed a vote, I would have switched to Tom to hammer.  I was expecting the lynch hammer to not happen as quick as it did.  Should I have switched to one of them, Tom preferably?  Yes, in retrospect.  My thoughts were that I would get the answers I was looking for to verify my vote, but things do happen, and whatever came up for Keeshi (family emergency - I hope she's ok), must have prevented her from getting those answers in. 

Retrospectively, I should have jumped to Tom.  However, I wanted to be sure, and wanted the answers I was asking for.  Excal had displayed the scummiest behaviour up to that point to me, which is why I kept my vote on him.  I wouldn't expect El-Cid to throw in miller/insane cop/whatever set-ups, but it's a possibility that could have kicked in (Touhou mafia), so I wanted my questions answered first. 

I hope that explains my logic to you.     
[11:53] <+Meeple_Gorath> me reading, that's a good one

[19:26] * +Terra_Condor looks up. Star Wars Football, what?
[19:27] <+Terra_Condor> Han Kicks First?
[19:27] <%Grefter-game> Vader intercepts.
[19:27] <%Grefter-game> Touchdown and Alderaan explodes in the victory

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #268 on: March 31, 2008, 12:43:08 PM »
Excal posts. Okay. The majority of the post accepts the case on him, but says he was sick and made mistakes, so it was bad play, not scummy play.

There are also only two votes in the game, so far. One on Otter, and one on Excal. No new issues have really been brought up, though Otter named Alex as well, and I have my own questions to him. Still, I don't see a sudden possible swing to Alex at this point.

So barring new evidence or analysis, the day appears to be a decision between Excal and Otter. I'm not particularly comfortable with either, but Andrew's earlier words about how scum can have a real life reason for lurking, too, come back to me. The same applies to any RL reason for suspect play, really. I believe Excal when he says he was ill. But that doesn't mean he's town, as scum could be ill as well, and just as townies can make mistakes scum can make slips.

Therefore, I'm more comfortable with voting for Excal. I do want to hear Excal's thoughts on Alex, something I've neglected asking for, and I would ask that people don't just hammer him without that, if they feel the same way I do about today's lynch target.

##Vote: Excal

Edit: OK posts, and yes, I'm satisfied with that explanation. Everything said after the fact should be taken with a grain of salt, and I do, but I'm satisfied with it more than I am with people who believed in the 'third option'. But enough has been spent about that, and restarting that argument here won't really help any, I think.

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #269 on: March 31, 2008, 07:05:36 PM »
Alright, let's start looking at today's posts.
To Corwin's first of my quotes:

Ryogo: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg13824#msg13824
Quote
Keeshi: Her roleclaim is a shock, and early, and unless someone else comes forwards that can disprove her of her role, then I've got no choice but to believe her.

At the time, the only possibilities I could think of were lynching Tom and risk losing a townie, or lynch Keeshi and risk losing the potential cop. Obviously, I'd rather risk the townie. I also figured that if she wasn't a cop, the real cop would come forward and bust her down. I never thought it would matter if it was day 2 or day 6, but yeah, I never thought of the real cop staying quiet. That would be smart.

Quote
Another worry though. How can we tell you're sane? I remember Cid saying in the last game that the mod almost never tells which kind of cop you are. I'm assuming he would follow the same logic.

It was a legitimate worry at the time, at least to me. I still voted for Tom though, knowing that those two were the only real choices that day. I just wanted to hear her explanations on why we should believe her just like that considering she could've been insane, thats all.


Otter: Yeah, after seeing Excal's post today, his game did appear to be R&R. It DID help to let a bit of the heat blow off of him. Doesn't mean I still don't have my suspicions about him either though. I'd like to hear more from the guy before condeming him to god awful CMT though.

AndrewRogue: No, you're not the only one Tom defends in his post, but you're the only one that was linked to him in some way from before. Sure its a stretch. And yes, you have been posting large amounts of material, but it was also a do-or-die situation for you with your limited posting. I know I haven't been doing much these last two days either, but its because I couldn't. And I know, both scum and town have real life issues. All I was doing was going back through the older posts and looking at possibilities. This was one I saw possible. Sorry for pointing the finger, but its how I feel. If anyone else thinks I'm thinking really poorly, please tell me. I'd like to know your opinions on this too.

Sopko: Yes, My thought train started to go a little more solid as I saw more to build off of. People also asked me not to bring up the newbie defense again as it made me look bad, so I didn't do it again. Maybe I'm just picking up the game faster than I thought I would, but it appears to me I still have much to learn. I'm just posting what comes to mind here.

Corwin 2: The only thing I said was spot on about my logic was my theory on Keeshi's cop logic, and trying to prove he had reason to investigate Tom. I'm very wary of Otter as well. Like I said, the passion for Excal seems blinding, with his vote never wavering. In theory, one of the loudest voices is supposed to be town. But from what I've heard, Otter knows the theory front to back. He could be easily trying to throw us for a loop.

Otter 2: Alex's moves do look funny, the way you put them. And could be scumbuddies for sure. But there's always the big what-if. What if one flips town? Then what do we do? This line of thought is gone. And it could very well be that only one, for none of them are actually scum.

Corwin 3: I like the logic about Shale, but I'm nervous about saying its the end-all-scum-thoughts for Shale. It does make him look much more town-like, but as with anything, could be a ploy set up by scum pre-game. I'm leaning towards the former though.

Otter 3+4: I understand your thoughts on Excal, but I still believe you should've went for either Tom or Keeshi in your voting. I realize if we go wrong, the scum gets 3 of us, but it also would've been -1 scum, and 3 people we now knew information about/knew weren't scum/didn't have to worry about. 3 scum also seems about right, given the numbers (About a 1/4 of the town). Also, Just because Excal or Alex flips scum, does not mean the other is for sure. There's just a good chance given what we've seen between the two.

Excal: Yay! A post! I'm very sorry to hear about your illness, and am very glad to hear that you're feeling better now. I don't know if the R&R will help or hinder you . It did help blow over some of the heat and get your thoughts together, but not being around also suggests scummyness. Yes, it's hard to fight an Otter argument from what I can see/have seen. It doesn't stop you from having to fight though. 

You say a lot of "I was wrong" in response of Otter's posts against you. And you also throw the finger back towards him, seems a little OMGUS to me, but understandable as he's been at you all game.  Your logic WAS messed at time, and I think you got the wrong messages across than what was intended. I don't think, however, he ignored cop sanities completely. He mentioned them several times in posts. I can't really dig much more out of your post. I'll have to wait until your one tomorrow.

Corwin 4: Yes, agreed. Alex saying that really doesn't make him look good after he didn't cast a vote either way either. Also, he wasn't the only player to stay away. Tom didn't go either way too, which makes Alex look very suspicious in my eyes. Could he have be trying to support the no lynch as well?

Otter 5: I'm leaning more towards Alex right now, than Excal. Maybe its just because what Excal has been doing is older news, but I've had suspicions for Alex for a while now and they're starting to feel stronger.

OK: Your logic makes perfect sense. I accept/agree with your reasoning. Not much else to say there.

Corwin 5: I still am highly suspect of Alex, and was serioulsy debating throwing my vote down for him. My main suspects (in no order) right now are Excal, Otter, Alex, and as a stretch, Andrew for my reasoning stated before. I want to see some more from Excal and Alex though. I'm beginning to feel that they're highest on my list.

For now, I will lay a vote for the sake of laying a vote and getting some say out there.

##Vote: Alex

I just feel stronger about him than Excal. If it comes down to it, I'll switch it up, but I don't want to risk a faster than normal hammer today unless given good reason. Until I'm persuaded/forced to otherwise, my vote will stay here.

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #270 on: March 31, 2008, 07:18:12 PM »
Ok, Part 1, Day 3: Excal

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14081#msg14081

I hope you're feeling better.  Bronchitis and being suck sicks.  This disappearing...bleh, honestly, real life sucks.  I can fully relate to that.  Except you did come back for a bit.  I'm wondering a bit at the, "The last few days have been full, and given that everyone was jumping on me for bad logic, I figured that I probably wasn't the party in the right, and so decided on rest/recovery instead of trying to continue on in the fray, especially considering that my best seemed to consist of taking a shovel and digging deeper with every go." section.  Mostly, the last part "...given that everyone...".  I know it's weird to disappear - I did that myself.  However, the reasoning...that's...a bit odd.  You were looking worse, so you stopped "continuing on into the fray"?  If that happens, I'd jump right back into the fray, if it were me (which I've been trying to do).  Disappearing for a bit, posting, then sticking back because you dug yourself in deeper - that looks more like an admonition of some type of guilt to me?  Nah, that's harsh - you are acknowledging you did some bad things for your exterior view at that point.  Admitting is good, and there's a bit of an explanation, so...I'm not too worried.  

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=673.msg14087#msg14087

Nice explanation of many things.  Granted, I would like to you to focus on some of the other issues people raised, and not just Otter's, but a lot of them were solved with just the Otter talk, so this isn't too major.  So, you were attempting to trap people?  As town?  You had no issue with making yourself a target if it got people talking?  

Perhaps I'm reading this a little too much, but it sounds like a huge smokescreen issue.  How...can this be good?  You said you were expecting flak.  What good could come from all this, except to obscure things?  Town needs clarity, and while I can fully understand perhaps not noting an explanation as well as you think you should have, clear it up quickly if that's the case.  Letting it fester is baaaaaaad for town.  Not good play.  We did get a good smokescreen out of it that day - and I will admit, I was part of that, but had I not had something come up, it would have all been to you, most likely.  

...which makes me start to think you might not be scum, since why would scum draw that much attention to themselves...unless you really were trying to make that plot work, trap people, get town to jump on them, and it failed, and people jumped on you?  It could go either way, but I do lean towards the scum at this point.  

"You've been waiting a while for a proper defense from me.  I'll start off with why you didn't get one before. "  Is not a good thing - are you saying you couldn't mount a proper defense at all until later?  Well, yes, you are - what I mean, more specifically, is that..."Are you saying that you knew you couldn't protect yourself well enough, so you had to wait to think of something?"  If all you said for your defense was, "I'm trying to make a hole and check on if people are jumping in it to go for a quick bandwagon without questioning votes", that might not be as contested.  Granted, that idea period still does not strike me as good town play.  Carth had even talked about it before-hand, saying he wanted to get a bandwagon quick to get things talking - you're saying you wanted something similar, but...far less helpful to town (namely, getting all the attention on you and pulling it away from others, which invariably has made us question a lot).  Carth wanted to bandwagon to get discussion going faster - you were bandwagoning to see if people questioned it or not?  Without thinking about the potential for doing what Carth had already mentioned?

"...no worthwhile defense I could offer".  Wow.  Just be straightforward and honest with the defense.  No worthwhile defense isn't a way I like that phrased.  If you think you have no words to dissuade someone...that's not good!  Talking is love for town, and trying to defuse a situation, even if you don't think you can, is important as all hell!  And talking about yourself is good - we were questioning you for LOGIC, which is something INTERNAL TO YOU.  Of course we want your thoughts!  

You admit to not being able to think clearly, and...were still going through with this gambit.  I'm honestly getting a last-ditch attempt to pick yourself up here.  I admit that you admit this wasn't smart, but...if you knew that, why would you do it?

I know you said you'd respond to me tomorrow in specifics (...today, I guess), so I will wait for that (and Corwin wants to hear more of your thoughts as well).  I just saw some of this and was baffled by it.  More to come when I see what you have to say.  A lot of my thoughts have been answered here, but I am still completely oogled by the thought process here and how it can conceivably help town - perhaps a very experienced town vs. inexperienced scum, but even then I can't see it doing much good.  

I will try to move on to two other people who have caught my brain, because they haven't caught my eye much of the game:

Sopko and Ryogo.

Sopko I'm not remembering much from for most of the game, outside of saying to "settle down", which isn't necessarily bad.  I just don't remember much else.  Ryogo...is somewhat at the centre of Excal's conversations, so he's someone to look at, if only to look for possible connections.  And anyone possibly related to Tom.  Excal is still where I want to go after today, but I'm still awaiting his responses, so for the moment, no vote yet.  

As to Otter...honestly, I feel he's pulled up good arguments and pushed himself to fix things and correct problems.  Alex...not too certain.  He's been very concise so far with everything, but I've seen Otter and Corwin (and Shale, actually) bring up good points here.  I want to look at this more myself, of course.  Shale...I get a strong town vibe from what he's been doing and posting, even if he hasn't posted huge amounts of material.  Andrew...has seemed a bit non-committal and generic in his past few posts.  

Time to look through more of Tom's stuff as well.

EDIT!  AND RYOGO POSTS!  WELL, MORE STUFF TO LOOK AT!
[11:53] <+Meeple_Gorath> me reading, that's a good one

[19:26] * +Terra_Condor looks up. Star Wars Football, what?
[19:27] <+Terra_Condor> Han Kicks First?
[19:27] <%Grefter-game> Vader intercepts.
[19:27] <%Grefter-game> Touchdown and Alderaan explodes in the victory

Ranmilia

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #271 on: March 31, 2008, 09:52:57 PM »
Oi, walls of text.  To Otter!

Quote
Where exactly did I equate Excal vs. OK with Keeshi vs. Tom?

Corwin answered this very well.

Quote
Here you're accusing me purely on the grounds that I was suspicious of Excal; "he was suspicious of someone I think is a townie now" is not a valid argument, and if it were, you'd be scummy for ever having been suspicious of Keeshi.

First, it absolutely is a valid argument, and it is entirely appropriate to look at me for being wrong on Keeshi.  Second, you've done much more than just be suspicious of Excal, you've focused on him to the exclusion of other cases and other evidence, including a scum cardflip.
Quote
when you were the only player who stayed away from the duality on day 1.

This is equating Excal/OK with Keeshi/Tom and is wholly invalid.

Quote
Here you're acting as if I didn't start the Excal wagon, accusing me of only agreeing with other people.  For most of the game now I've been on the Excal case, which I was the first to make; that hardly makes me a passive player who's only "quoting and agreeing with other people."  And it's strange for you to call me out on not posting much, because you've been lower in both postcount and content from the beginning.

You're heavily pushing the Excal case, and that's what's important.  I don't really care about the semantics of whether you started it or not, if you want to get technical it started in page 1 jokevotes.  I am not accusing you of sitting back and seconding other people on Excal, and if I came across that way I apologize.  I am accusing you of sitting back and seconding other people on every other case you've mentioned except for Excal.  I also don't think I've been lower in content than you, although that's of course for other people to decide - you've been awfully loud on the Excal case, but silent and passive on everything else. 

Regarding the rest - yep, I sure am making assumptions about how scum are most likely to act.  That is kind of how you play Mafia.  You can't just try to play gotcha games, like Otter's trying to do with me here by saying I'm somehow scummier because I haven't "addressed all the contradictions" he's "called me on," and with Excal's day 1 behavior, and dismiss everything else as WIFOM.  That's fine for day 1 cases - but the best and most reliable way for town to find scum is working from cardflips and analyzing past behavior, especially that of known scum.  I think Excal's behavior has been very scummy - but I don't know his cardflip.  I DO know Tom's cardflip, and his behavior indicates that Excal is not scum.     

We know Tom was scum, we know he spoke in favor of lynching Excal day 1 and 2.  That, to me, supercedes Excal's behavior and makes me want to work from a different perspective now.  That perspective leads me to Otter, who did not vote on Excal/Keeshi even after the cop claim, has been passive on every case but Excal, has been extremely vocal on Excal, and is using what I consider to be very questionable methods to make his points.

As for other people... I haven't been throwing out laundry lists of suspicion right and left because A. till now there hasn't really been cause for it and B. doing so has tended to be suicidal for me in the past, I'm sick of getting OMGUS'd for what I fully disclaim as shaky cases.  And C. I'm suspicious of pretty much everyone.  Sopko, OK and Shale, especially Sopko, feel lurkish to me.  Corwin's bought into a lot of bad logic and mischaracterizations, and seemed to be tied to Rat day 1.  Ryogo, well, feels like a classic wince-and-ignore newbie, which I'm a bit less wary of with Tom being sharp and scum and Keeshi playing terribly and flipping town.  Andrew... actually looks pretty good to me.  (But I'm not sure what that's worth, since Tom also seemed fine to me before he flipped.)

Shale

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #272 on: March 31, 2008, 10:08:41 PM »
Okay, back from work, mulling over the day so far. Short version is that Excal and Alex feel most suspicious to me, with Corwin somewhat below them. Going to get to work on a larger post with actual, you know, details, together as soon but I wanted to get something on the table now since it's been a good 18 hours since I posted.
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[23:02] <Veryslightlymad> CK dreams about me starring in porno?
[23:02] <CmdrKing> Pretty sure.

Sierra

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #273 on: March 31, 2008, 10:27:14 PM »
Current votecount:

Excal (2): Otter, Corwin
Otter (1): Sir Alex
Sir Alex (1): Ryogo

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

There are 49.5 hours remaining.

Mod's note: Sorry about that, Shale. I thought part of the intent in quoting your own post was to repeat the vote. Fixed now.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2008, 11:31:24 PM by El Cideon »

Shale

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Re: Composer Battle Is Go! THE TREBLE CLEF IS YOUR DOOM!
« Reply #274 on: March 31, 2008, 10:53:04 PM »
Wait, wha?

##Unvote

Sorry, didn't think quoting that post would make the vote count again. I still suspect Excal, but I'm not completely certain who I want my vote on.
"Sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology."
-Ponder Stibbons

[23:02] <Veryslightlymad> CK dreams about me starring in porno?
[23:02] <CmdrKing> Pretty sure.