NBA 2015-2016: Kobe is going to retire before Joey Crawford

[Veryslightlymad]

God damn it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~

So I returned to the forums, and I see Scar is still on the forum, so there you go. We have our two guys who might be interested in this topic starting up again, so I have officially started this year's basketball thread.

I am going to start with some offseason analysis and ongoing season predictions for all teams.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Boston Celtics:
I really like the Celtics and I hope they continue doing well. "But VSM" you may say, "Didn't you hate the Celtics?" Well yeah. I did. Like three or four years ago. But that's because I hated KG and Rondo, even though they were both really good at basketball. Now the Cs have a bunch of guys that are not AS good at basketball, but are still pretty damn good, and liable to get better.
The offseason saw the departure of Bass, which is good, because the Celtics have the enviable problem of having "too many potentially really good big men," so it's nice to see them make some moves to rep---oh, they also picked up David Lee and Amir Johnson.
So the Celtics have a LOT of good-to-very good big men. A solid guard rotation, assuming they realize this year that Isaiah Thomas is a lot better than Marcus Smart. This is a team that you can be really excited over, because hey, they already made the playoffs, and there's basically no way that anyone on the team was playing to their full potential. I think Celtics fans should be happy they missed that Winslow deal, because unless Winslow becomes a superstar of some kind, I'm pretty sure with all these assets and the inevitable piling on of MORE assets, Boston is going to (continue to) be a playoff team for quite some time.

Brooklyn Nets
I have them as my pick to lose the most games from last season to this one. I've never been big on Deron Williams, but they are basically losing him and... god, are they gonna start Steve Blake?
At any rate, the Nets have no future, and that tickles me, because I really can't stand them and their Russian Mob-boss owner. I used to joke and say they should give Jay Z more control of the team, but you know what? He's almost certainly got better business sense than their entire front office (which traded away their entire future for two aging superstars that aren't even there anymore) No picks in the coming draft, which has to hurt, because they stand a very good chance at winning it.

New York Knicks
Thanks to Brooklyn, I can't make fun of the Knicks as much as I used to. I mean, hell, they're not even the most incompetent team in their own city anymore.
I like Phil Jackson, and I like the moves he's made, and I also like that he's basically given the finger to the idea that the Knicks need to win now because they have Melo. You can't win now with Melo, unless you have a really good player to serve alongside him. In another universe, he found his way to Brooklyn with Williams and the two of them are competing for titles and generally pissing me off. In this universe, he gets to watch the development of Porzingis, and share a locker room with a player he once choked out on the floor during a game, which delights me to no end.
Actually, Vujacic being back in the league delights me in general. The idea that he might be choked out by his own teammate is a cherry on top of my sundae. I love that smelly, weird bastard.

Philadelphia 76ers
Every time I think they might not be the worst team in the league again (actually the Wolves and the Knicks managed to sneak one by last year) I remember that they traded away their only good player, and hey, maybe Okafor turns out to be something special but....
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612755/players/
Look at this team and tell me who the point guard is. No, seriously. Because I honestly don't fucking know, and that's real, real bad. I hope they decide on Scottie Wilbelkin, because he's really fun, but no matter who they go with, I'll crap my pants if they average 5 assists a game. So yeah, Okafor might be great! He might mesh perfectly with Nerlens Noel! Without a point guard, this is a team that will struggle to win 20 games.

Toronto Raptors
I forgot this team existed on an earlier prediction thread/poll and I regret it because they'll probably make the playoffs. I mean, they won't do anything once there, but they'll probably make it, you guys.
They threw a bunch of money at a guy who basically only plays defense, which sounds crazy, but then you remember they're the Raptors and, uh... a little bit of defense could seriously make a huge difference. They are crazy bad at defense.
I remember when Ron Artest went to Sacramento and basically instantly pulled the team out of the gutter. It's a shame that Demarre Carol is nowhere near as good as Artest was, but the flipside is, he doesn't have to pull this team nearly as far. They also picked up the entertaining Biyombo and the very solid Luis Scola. The only reason I'm not higher on this team is that two of the better teams in the East missed the playoffs (and how often do you get to say that) because of Injuries/Illness. Boston and Milwaukee probably will both improve. I feel like this team just is getting outpaced.

CENTRAL DIVISION

Chicago Bulls
It's... Thursday? Which means Derrick Rose is injured. I love how people put all the stock in the Bulls on the shoulders of Rose, despite the rest of the team being really good. Like, I mean really fucking good.
Now, this isn't to disrespect Rose, because yeah, he was terrific once upon a time, and I think everyone wants to see him back to that kind of a player. But seriously, the Chicago Bulls are fantastic.
They've made basically no roster moves, aside from pick up a big man who can play right now, which is nice, because they are aging a bit in that respect.
Jimmy Butler had a fantastic, breakout season. Pau Gasol honestly deserved a couple of votes in the MVP race. He played better than his little brother, and he got one. I call shenanigans.
At any rate, you can never call it a foregone conclusion that LeBron will go to the Finals, because this is a team that can beat him.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Nonetheless, this was a team that was beaten up pretty badly last year, and this year, they'll, hopefully, be healthy. There's not a lot to say about the Cavs. LeBron is the GOAT. Fuck the haters and the asterisk-ers. He has a lot of help surrounding him. This really ought to be the team to beat, and not just in the East, but, well, we'll see.
You always hear about supposed conflict between James and Love, but I just don't see it. LeBron and Love are like, two of the chillest dudes in the league.
Mo Williams is a quiet, huge pickup and between him and the player known as "Health", this might be what they need to go over the edge.

Detroit Pistons
Stanley Johnson looks like Rookie of the Year, based off the highly reliable and never wrong metric that is Summer League.
That said, losing Greg Monroe has got to hurt. He was an extremely reliable post player that also passes the ball at a terrific level for a guy his size. I understand that he didn't work so well with Drummond and I guess Drummond has more up side, but that's not what you like to see happen to a team.
The Reggie Jackson signing looks insane. I like Stan as a coach, but I think there's too much emphasis by coaches on "Is this a guy I can coach?" and not nearly enough of "How do I best coach this guy?" I think the great ones adapt to their personnel and not the other way around. Look at how much success Pop has had by making the fucking Spurs into an uptempo team. Know your pieces. Don't pay huge contracts to guys that back-up superstars. On the other hand, Houston paid a huge contract to a guy that backed up those exact superstars and that worked exceedingly well for them, so maybe there's something to it.
I hope Drummond isn't compared to Anthony Davis for his entire career, because that's not a match-up in his favor. I guess Davis is doing the Tim Duncan thing of pretending he's a power forward, so there's that, at least.

Indiana Pacers
Oh, boy. I finally get to talk about the Pacers. Oh, man.
So you guys know this is a good team, right? Like, a "potentially knock Cleveland out in the East" team, yeah?
No. No, a lot of people forget that. Everyone forgets that. They look at a team that missed the playoffs in the East and lost two important big men in David West and the corpse of Roy Hibbert. That's fair. That's very fair.
But Paul George is going to be back, and that's more or less the sole reason why the Pacers are my prediction for "Biggest swing in wins". Paul George is that damn good. Of course, you can't expect a guy to return from injury and be exactly where he was before. Hell, Rose has shown us that you can't even expect an MVP caliber player to come back remotely good. But George went out as a top 5 player in the league. He honestly doesn't need much help to be dangerous.
Monte Ellis is a good pick-up and should mesh with what the team has going. Indiana's draft was really positive

Milwaukee Bucks
Adding Greg Monroe to a playoff team instantly gives it a certain level of Gravitas that it was maybe missing before. They lose out on Ilyasova, but where Ersan was always kind of inconsistent, Greg is pretty much a rock. You're gonna get 15 and 10 from him, a few assists. Milwaukee is a great fit, and I love that he picked it over a flashier destination because he knew it was a great fit.
Their young guys should improve. It'll be nice for them to get an actual season out of Jabari Parker, because that kid looked like he might be special before he went down. Khris Middleton might be the most underrated player in the NBA. (I forgot he existed when I filled out a survey and now I'm kicking myself.) I'd like to see if Jason Kidd can reign in Michael Carter-Williams a little. I really like MCW, and his career kind of looks like a young Jason Kidd's, but HOLY SHIT the dude has a turnover problem. Like, "Historically bad". Then again, Kidd was also really, really bad at turnovers. Not AS bad, but really bad, early on.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
Atlanta Hawks
I spoke pretty sort of highly about Demarre up in the Toronto blurb. I guess the only real thing I have to say about the Hawks is to ask and then answer the question:
Q)Do I think the Hawks will suffer too badly from the departure of Carroll?
A)Naw

Charlotte Hornets
God, I love typing that. Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte Hornets. I bought a T-shirt and made my inner Jr. High VSM smile.
This is a stealth Playoff pick. I don't personally have them in the mix, but Jeremy Lin, Nic Batum and Frank Kaminsky are all really solid players. Lance Stephenson gave them NOTHING. They might miss Vonleh. I'd love to see what Jeremy Lamb can do if given minutes.
Unfortunately, though, they lost Kidd-Gilchrist for the season, and that's just a huge blow. While he can't really shoot to save his life, MKG is one of those rare elite swingman defenders. Remember when I mentioned how Ron Artest came to Sacramento and instantly made them relevant? And that Demarre Carroll is good, but he wasn't that kind of a talent? Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is that kind of a talent. This whole club is gonna look seriously different without him, and I wouldn't be surprised to see their defense drop 10 places from last year. That blows.
....Charlotte Hornets

Miami Heat
The other East team that missed the playoffs but was actually a top team. Chris Bosh missed the last part of the season with the terrifying injury of "Blood clots in the lungs", which I guess he's better now? I'm glad. Bosh is one of my favorite players in the NBA and I hate to see that kind of a medical report on anyone.
So he's back. Deng finally has someone that can play behind him in Justise Winslow, so he can finally take his poor, Thibideau destroyed body and rest. Goran Dragic is really good and is probably the first real point guard this team has had since the dual-corpse lineup of Jason Williams and Gary Payton. Maybe even Wade can get some rest with this roster? Amare will be nice backup for Bosh.
Healthy, this is one of the best teams in the league, James or no James. Last season they got real unlucky.

Orlando Magic
I really like this team full of strapping young lads and hope they continue to improve.
That said, they really didn't gain anything in the off-season aside from a coach everyone hates. Mario Hezonja seems like a cool dude and is hopefully really good at basketball. I want to be higher on this team, but they stood pat, more or less. Their competition is probably improving faster than they are, and that's not a great sign. Indiana and Miami should both be in the mix if they're healthy. Boston has a similar young roster, but is probably better across the board. Milwaukee should be similar, but got a really solid big man in the offseason and MCW and Giannis can both plausibly take big leaps. Jabari will be back.
Unfortunately, as much as I like these kids, I think they're more or less hopelessly outgunned. It'd be cool to see them turn into the post-Melo Nuggets, but I just don't think that's in the cards. Now I have to wonder if I want them to win a draft, or if I want the players I like to get traded to better situations. It's a very bittersweet feeling in Orlando.

Washington Wizards
Kevin Durant is not going to Washington. Kevin Durant owns several distinct properties in the Oklahoma City area. He is not "going home" next year. He is home, right now. God damn it.
Aside from sports writers not shutting up, and my irrational dislike of John Wall, this is a really solid team that got a fairly cheap Jared Dudley in the offseason, and he's quietly a very solid, very underrated player. They can easily challenge for the East.
The only reason Westbrook wasn't MVP last year was because they -barely- missed the playoffs. James Harden can claim he was MVP all he wants, but the real snub was Russel. dude played out of his goddamn mind.
Nobody in their right mind leaves a team that has another MVP caliber player. NOBODY.

WEST TO FOLLOW

[NotMiki]

So the Celtics have a LOT of good-to-very good big men. A solid guard rotation, assuming they realize this year that Isaiah Thomas is a lot better than Marcus Smart. This is a team that you can be really excited over, because hey, they already made the playoffs, and there's basically no way that anyone on the team was playing to their full potential. I think Celtics fans should be happy they missed that Winslow deal, because unless Winslow becomes a superstar of some kind, I'm pretty sure with all these assets and the inevitable piling on of MORE assets, Boston is going to (continue to) be a playoff team for quite some time.

I assure you, everyone in the greater Boston area with a pulse and a remote wants Isaiah Thomas to start.  The mood here is so positive - everyone feels like the team is in good hands with Ainge and Stevens, and that the team is outperforming expectations, and is a couple years further toward being a good team than we had expected.  This is a team that got a standing ovation after getting swept in the playoffs.  The amount of good will with the fan base right now is just amazing.  Whether a basketball franchise really can become a contender without being bad enough to get a top three draft pick for a few years in a row is a tricky question, but everyone here is drinking the kool-aid.

[Veryslightlymad]

Well, again, you have tons of assets and a GM who has a history of pulling off big trades. I don't think any one guy in Boston is "The guy", but they could make a real swing for a superstar sometime in the near future, if one becomes available.

[Veryslightlymad]

Now for The West!

Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks
Until Dirk retires, this is my team. However, as much as I love 'em, I think there's very, very slim hopes of making the playoffs again before he retires. Is it wrong that I secretly wish they win the lottery and get someone amazing next year and Dirk can go out like David Robinson?
They lost Chandler and everyone remembers the hilarity of the Deandre Jordan fiasco. Again, this is my team, and even I thought that was the funniest thing I lived through. They lost Ellis, who gave them a ton, and Rondo, who didn't. They got Deron Williams, but I've never been high on him, so I don't have that much hope that he'll keep the ship afloat.

Houston Rockets
Fun fact. When asked what he thinks about his stats in NBA2k16, Anthony Davis said, "I don't even know. To be honest, I always pick the Rockets". So yeah, they're, uh, pretty good. Shame they're unlikeable assholes from top to bottom. They actually got Ty Lawson in the offseason, so they managed to become even bigger assholes. Great. Great.
Assuming Howard doesn't break again, they're right there in Title Contention. James Harden is really good, improved his horrible, horrible defense to where it's actually about league average, and has never had trouble on the other side of the ball. Could he do it if they called his illegal rip through a charge? ....honestly, yeah, he'd probably still be really fucking good. Call the rip through

Memphis Grizzlies
They lose Koufos and pick up Matt Barnes, who fits in super well with the Grizzlies style it's almost eerie. Barnes still has it left in the tank, so this is actually fairly big news. Memphis is one of those teams that's always right there in title contention, but everyone's quiet on because they're not really flashy. Stupid. For my money, this is a tough out for literally anyone.

New Orleans Pelicans
Speaking of Anthony Davis, he's REALLY GOOD, guys. They added nothing of value in the offseason, so I guess they're relying on continued player development. Except, as good as Davis is, if he even matches last year's performance, that would be one hell of a feat. So... uh... that's a pretty dicey choice to stand completely pat. Especially because of OKC only missing the playoffs because of how banged up they are. They're lucky Portland got so much worse, because otherwise they'd be the clear "Not going to repeat the playoffs" team outside the Mavs.

San Antonio Spurs
They kept Leonard and Green and picked up Lamarcus Aldridge (who had a career year) and a productive David West to boot. Duncan/Aldridge can work well together, but it will involve one of them admitting they're a center. It'll be interesting to see who bites that bullet. Parker and Manu are probably both negative value at this point, but Danny Green is crazy underrated, and they can get by with their other guards, who are all competent-to-good. Still a championship team. Best run team in sports. Spurs gon' Spur.

Northwest Division
They gotta change that name. Utah, and Denver are about as far "North" as Minnesota is "west" Oklahoma City is neither. It's neither North, nor West. Restructure the divisions in general. Portland goes Pacific, Phoenix goes Southwest, this division picks up Memphis and is renamed "Midwest Division." TA-DA I fixed the problem in less moves than the idiots running things.

Denver Nuggets
They seemlessly replace Ty Lawson with a very promising Emmanuel Mudiay. Otherwise, they made no real moves in the offseason, and they weren't a playoff contender in a tough conference.
They ought to look to rebuilding or at least retooling, but they resigned their dinged up players that, admittedly, ARE young still and might come back? It still seems like a weak decision, and they're in the unenviable position of being too good to have a particularly good chance at winning the lottery, but not nearly good enough to make the playoffs.

Minnesota Timberwolves
If you have league pass or one of those services where you get to pick what teams you watch and you don't watch the Wolves, you are a horrible person. Will probably be one of the most fun teams in the league to watch, but other than that.... they gon' be bad.
I'm not on the Towns train. Prove it to me, Karl. I don't buy it yet. If either he or Wiggins pans out, or, holy shit, if they BOTH pan out, this is a terrifying team in like, two or three years.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Remember Kevin Durant? Apparently the media and people on web forums don't. Anyone who doesn't see this as a top team in the west, right there with the Spurs, Rockets, Warriors, Clips, and YES, the Grizzlies, is insane. Healthy, this is a team that terrifies everyone. They have two guys who are threats to win MVP on any given year. How is that possible or fair? They didn't make any important moves and that's because they didn't have to.

Portland Trail Blazers
Losing Aldridge is just agony. This team rode him so hard. They lost a bunch of really good players and replaced them with a bunch of solid or underrated players that might develop into something more. Not the best trade, obviously, but it could be a lot grimmer.
A little bit of lottery luck, and they can come back pretty quick. Damien Lillard is really good.

Utah Jazz
No Exum this season, which hurts their playoff hopes significantly, but otherwise, this is a young team that is developing rapidly. Gordon Hayward is really fucking good, but gets no respect. Rudy Gobert is one of the most promising young centers in the league. Losing Exum is one hell of a blow, but the rest of the team may well develop enough to still take that 7 or 8 seed. Don't sleep on the Jazz.

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors
Your reigning champions and an historically good team. Assuming they don't get beat up, there's no reason to not just assume they'll win the championship, despite six or seven other teams being good enough. This team isn't "good enough". Last year's team was second in several advanced metrics only to the 1997 Chicago Bulls. Of all teams, ever. Holy. Shit. The Warriors are REALLY GOOD.

Los Angeles Clippers
Won the DeAndre Jordan battle at the last minute, and won our hearts in the process. Otherwise, they got rid of noted pesky defender and possibly unstable Matt Barnes, for the loveable and oddly mild-mannered gentleman known as Lance Stephenson. This will look really smart if he doesn't shit the bed like last year. Honestly, if he can just do what Barnes did for them, that's huge, because Lance is so much younger. Another championship contender, wow, the West is good.

Los Angeles Lakers
Except for these guys. These guys suck. That hurts me deeply, because I really like the Lakers. Some of those teams from a decade ago were among my favorites to watch, and I marked the fuck out for the Kobe/Gasol championships. D'angelo Russel, in my opinion/best guess, is likely to have the best career of anyone in this year's draft. So that's a hell of a consolation prize to the floundering franchise as they say goodbye to their bloodied superstar who at this point resembles whichever fighter lost at the end of whichever Rocky Movie you feel like watching.

Phoenix Suns
They replaced Morris Twins production/drama with Tyson Chandler, who is both real old and completely unnecessary. Chandler could go to so many other teams and make a bigger splash, but he went here. Maybe he figures the Phoenix Lazarus pits will give him his hops back.
Remember when they had 3 really good point guards? Well, they traded 2 of them away for no reason, and got another one back who isn't as good. So... yay. To the lottery with you, bizarre team with no coherent plan

Sacramento Kings
Another team that very likely could make the playoffs. Boogie has stated that the MVP trophy is his to grab, and since seasons like Curry's, Harden's, and Anthony Davis' don't come around very often. (Seriously. There are some years where Pau Gasol would have won MVP with last year's numbers, and he didn't even get a single 5th place vote. Last season had several players go out of their goddamn minds.) Anyhow, since those types of seasons don't happen that often, I'm inclined to believe that Boogie could do it.
Marco Bellinelli and Kosta Koufos are subtle, really smart pickups at a good price. Rajon Rondo's contract is amazing, and if he has anything left in the tank, (I'm inclined to think that he does) that is a huge, huge get for this club. Either way, they just need Boogie to be Boogie and not get meningitis and some kind of production from the rest of the team and, yeah, they're a playoff team.
Fire George Karl. How is he still getting employed?

[The Duck]

I was going to do one of these and then talk to myself the rest of the season but I forgot you like basketball.

EAST

Boston Celtics
The Celtics players are all around average to above average, each with fairly stark individual flaws, but they are coached very well. I've always liked Amir Johnson and thought that Detroit never should have traded him away, but he's a dude very reliant on his athleticism and he's around the age where athleticism tends to wane. Lee was glued to the bench on Golden State and can still probably be a useful player, but his boxscore contributions have always outweighed his actual impact (he gets a lot of rebounds but doesn't make his teams good at rebounding, if that makes sense).

Danny Ainge has always tried to collect all these assets to prepare for the situation if the next Harden/Dwight superstar move happens, but I don't see a package of Boston's players and picks that I would accept for a player of that caliber (unless the Nets are bottom three terrible this year in which case that pick is really good). I think the glut of big men is not a good problem since no combination of them fits in a very logical way other than Lee/Amir (even then there are spacing issues although Amir secretly is developing a 3 point shot) and there is no credible post defender on the team. If anything happens to Amir (and he still gets into foul trouble which limits his minutes), then the interior defense will be garbage since none of the other bigs block shots or contest well. Smart and Bradley are relentless on the perimeter so that is a plus, but they are both also very limited offensively. Isaiah Thomas is the kind of unconscious gunner I like but he is the only  player of the Celtics' top six that I would consider to be dangerous offensively. He doesn't start because his defense is so god damn bad and he needs to be handcuffed to Bradley so that he isn't torched every possession, and he can get tunnel vision. Smart is uneven but sets an awesome tone defensively, whereas Thomas feasts off scoring on backups so I don't think their roles are off. Stevens knows what he's doing and Thomas will play starting minutes anyhow.

Boston's strength is that they have viable backups at all positions so they can keep a fresh rotation of players on court. I think there's a lack of a consistent shooting threat but RJ Hunter may develop into that down the road. I think Boston's biggest asset is actually Brad Stevens, who is a great coach who gets good effort out of his guys and knows how to stagger lineups that work. Definitely a playoff contender but I don't think the ceiling for this team this year is very high. Ainge may try to do something crazy but he may be waiting for free agency this or next year for his big moves.

Brooklyn Nets
Jarrett Jack is their starting point guard, which isn't pretty but better than Steve Blake. Jack needs the ball a lot which isn't good because Lopez and Thad Young are clearly better (and I've always felt really bad for Thaddeus Young because he is a solid player but has been on such shitty teams his entire career, but he did resign to Brooklyn so I guess some of that is his fault).  This team will be bad. I don't know who the starting small forward is. Thad Young will be playing the 4 and he will get points but matches up poorly with most 4s on defense. Brook Lopez is their best player but he's always injured and is too slow footed to be a positive on defense. Joe Johnson is old and increasingly mediocre and he's paid like he's Kobe. I'm afraid that picking up Andrea Bargnani also consigns this team to utter failure. The bench is kind of a mess and their only young player who could turn into something is Rondae Hollis Jefferson who is going to be a long term project. They got really lucky in close games last year, lost Deron Williams (who isn't great now but is at least competent), I don't believe in their coach, and they just lack talent. They took a step back and most other teams in the east took a step forward. They have no present. They have no future.

New York Knicks
For the love of god schedule makers, do not put this team on TV anymore. This is a story (along with the Lakers) of big markets being overrated in free agency if management looks horrible. The Knicks won't be as bad as last year, since they picked up some at least competent players in Afflalo, O'Quinn, and Robin Lopez. Porzingis won't make much of a difference first year and I think he does have talent, but he's going to need to be Dirk from day 1 for the New York media to not crucify him for not being Mudiay or Justise.

At least Carmelo's getting paid.

They can't be as bad as last year if Carmelo plays, but these dudes aren't really triangle dudes and if Phil Jackson/Fisher keeps pushing that then he's going to have a bad time.

Philadelphia 76ers
Isaiah Canaan is the starting point guard and he is basically backup quality. Nerlens was an impact player coming back from injury and he's still not reached his defensive potential. I actually think he'll mesh fairly well with Okafor, but the team in aggregate still only has four, maybe five NBA level players (Covington, Noel, Okafor, Wroten, Canaan).

There is this question of culture here that I usually don't care to speculate about, but what are these guys going to be like when the organization finally wants to win? Are they going to be damaged and have acquired poor habits from losing and being a league joke, or maybe that could be fuel for them to perform at a really high competitive level when they are ready? It's damaged the organization's reputation such that free agents won't go there at least. They have Embiid (who knows with his injury) and Dario Saric (who may not come for a while) coming in as well as their likely top 3 pick this year, and that could be the foundation of a good team, but I question what that's going to be like. The fans always say "trust the process" and the players are playing hard and trying to win when they're on the floor, but if I were a player, I can't help but feel like I'd resent management for putting me in a position where I'm on the precipice of NBA history in all the wrong ways, unless that led to the team being a perennial contender. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

This is another team that doesn't have star (or any) talent but is really well coached. They were above average in defense last year based almost solely on Noel, and Okafor should help them at least not be the worst offense in history. He'll get volume numbers so he may be a strong ROY candidate, but good coaching and Okafor probably will get them to finally break 20 wins. Maybe even 21. But as much as Philly is known for tanking, they actually haven't had the worst record in past two years because they actually do try. Someone always falls off that you wouldn't expect, but I don't see many teams being godawful this year. That said, this would be a good year for the 76ers to tank for Ben Simmons since he would be a really valuable piece, and they likely get the Lakers pick as well. If they get two top four players, they should probably try to actually put a team together.

Toronto Raptors
I don't know what to make of their precipitous fall at the end of last year. Was it all Kyle Lowry's injuries? He started off the year on fire and was just awesome but might have played through injury and maybe that made the Raptors hot start a bit illusory or unsustainable (they were hitting a lot of long 2s at a rate that is impossible to keep up). Carroll will be good for them but I don't think he'll be getting the open shots he got in Atlanta, so he won't be as valuable there but he will upgrade the defense. I think some of the defensive pickups the team got with Biyombo and Caroll will be mitigated by Amir leaving. Jonas V got a big contract but he wasn't playing at the end of games because his defense was so shitty, and that's going to have to get fixed. He's athletic but slow, so that makes it hard for him to defend switches at the perimeter, but maybe he'll be doing less of that with Carroll and Biyombo around. This is a similar team as Boston in terms of depth being a strength, but the ceiling is higher if Lowry plays at the level he did at the beginning of the season since that was an all-NBA level player who made everything go. There are also a lot of talented question marks that could be pretty good, like their picks last year whose names I can't spell.

Chicago Bulls
Disagree a bit here, if this team is going to be more than a second round exit, they do need Rose to be at least an approximation of what he used to be, and he's not going to be able to get used to the new system since he's missing training camp and the preseason. We saw a bit of old Rose in the playoffs in an inconsistent manner, but the team completely fell apart when he was off.

The defense will probably slip a bit without Thibodeau (as a guy who gameplans defense, there may be no one better), but the hope is going to be that Hoiberg will loosen up the offensive system a bit by attacking in transition with Rose and Butler more and to not wear these dudes out before the playoffs. The league is trending towards resting guys to keep them fresh, so there's no need to destroy people like Luol Deng (the Bulls really did him wrong) or Jimmy Butler. Butler's a bonafide star and took a step forward that I didn't anticipate. He's just awesome. Pau had a really strong offensive season but fell off on defense, and he looked gassed at the end of the playoffs. Noah didn't look the same because of his knee and I don't know whether that's a lingering issue or not, but it's very problematic if it is because there were times where you couldn't put him and Gasol on the court together. Taj Gibson is coming back from surgery, and I'm not sure if he's completely recovered yet, but Mirotic looks good. Losing Dunleavy for 10-12 weeks really hurts since they'll have to depend on Tony Snell for a few months.

They're a top 4 seed in the east, but it's going to come down to health and trying to get consistent shooting for this team (Butler and Dunleavy are good, everyone else is really streaky, incidentally, Dunleavy may be one of the dirtiest players in the NBA but no one talks about it). They'll probably win around the same amount of games as last year but could be better poised to do something in the playoffs. If Noah and Gibson are completely recovered then they should make up for some defensive slippage from losing Thibs, but the team's ceiling is dictated by health. If everything clicks, they definitely have a shot against Cleveland.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Jordan's still better.

Kyrie played well and when he's hot, it's kind of amazing because he just doesn't miss, but he also may not play this calendar year and I think he's at his productive peak. Mo Williams has played well with LeBron before and should be able to catch and shoot and ball handle while Kyrie is out, and he will be a strong sixth man when he comes back. Iman Shumpert is also out for the beginning of the season which hurts since he was a great defensive player for them. LeBron's going to be the same but they'll probably cut back his minutes and I don't think they'll care too much about homecourt in the East since LeBron-led teams have historically been able to beat playoff teams on the road. This is also the first year that LeBron has looked human at times, and he took a vacation in the middle of the year to rest up.

This is kind of a frustrating team because it should be historically good but the system isn't right. Kevin Love is more than a spotup shooter and they're not using his incredible rebounding ability to good use if he's only hanging around the perimeter. I think the beginning of the season without Kyrie will be key, since that should allow James and Love to build a rapport together, and Kevin Love can carry an offense by himself for stretches, which should help LeBron rest a bit. The problem is that Blatt may not be able to use these guys to their full potential together. I'm not sure he's a good coach. He put together a really good plan for the Warriors, going back to some 90s Knicks-ass caveman basketball, but his in game adjustments aren't good at all and his team may not be listening to him. I think Blatt's player usage is keeping this from being the best team in the league, but it's possible that another season with these guys playing together can help things coalesce.

The Tristan Thompson saga is kind of hilarious since he rejected a contract clearly way above market value, but he is useful for them. Not 84 million useful but if he holds out for a long period, that could hurt and they could start the year very short handed since Kyrie and Shumpert are also out for a while.

They're basically a ECF shoe in as long as LeBron is alive and ambulatory but I still have this frustrating feeling that Love won't be used right and that will prevent this team from being truly great. If they're the same as last year, though, they probably aren't a favorite against the monsters in the western conference.

Detroit Pistons
Stan got a team with a frontcourt of Josh Smith, Andre Drummond, and Greg Monroe, and he did try to put together a product that woud incorporate them, but that ended up with a 5-23 record because it became the easiest team to defend (pack the interior, let someone shoot a doinked 3). The team was completely different after jettisoning Smith, and it was actually at its best with lineups without Monroe. I have liked Monroe for years and for a while he was the only player on the team that was worth talking about and the only player that kept the team from being a complete joke, but he is in the mold of a player of a bygone NBA. Like, in the 90s or early 2000s I think he would have been a perennial all-star, but he can't defend like a center or provide any spacing that a lot of modern teams need to operate, even if his passing is really good. SVG has a really good way with point guards, and Brandon Jennings had an amazing stretch (they are a really fun playoff team if he stays healthy) where he looked like an all-star. Even DJ Augustin looked really good in stretches.

Reggie Jackson was a completely different player as a Piston as opposed to backing up Westbrook, and it speaks to the importance of looking at how players are used. Everyone knew Harden was an awesome sixth man and he for the most part was used really well by the Thunder in a way that would be transferrable if given more opportunities. Reggie looked like a guy with absolutely no vision who called his own number a ton, which saved them against Memphis that one year but he was really uneven. Still, he had the skills in OKC to be an elite pick and roll player but that skill wasn't used often. Then, when he came over to Detroit, Stan used him extensively in the pick and roll with Drummond and he was able to be the playmaker that he never could be with a high usage guy like Westbrook around. He is overpaid (Aron Baynes too) but not by an amount that will look that unreasonable as the salary cap increases (soon $15 mil will be the salary for average players), and he can live up to the contract if he plays the same as he did at the end of the season. No star is going to voluntarily go to Detroit, and sadly you do have to overpay a bit to convince free agents to go there, same as several midwestern small market teams.

If you follow the course of the season, the team actually played best with Monroe out of lineups (they played better with Anthony Tolliver than with Monroe), with Andre Drummond as a huge roll man with the point guard and the others providing shooting on the perimeter, basically the one big, four out formation that is becoming more popular and that was used by Stan Van Gundy with Dwight Howard and the Magic earlier on. Now there are a lot of pretty good shooters on the team, and they could all really benefit from the attention Jackson and Drummond will get on pick and roll plays, and if they can knock down those shots, this can be a good offense. The main questions here are on defense. KCP and Andre have defensive potential that is still unrealized, and Stanley Johnson could also be really good (I actually wanted Justise Winslow but Stanley looks legitimately good).

Marcus Morris is an averagish small forward they got for nothing, and strangely enough, the Pistons could really use Markieff as a long term option but probably don't have the assets to get him. Those two are definitely unlikable assholes though.

I think they gel together offensively but struggle defensively still, and even after this long writeup I think they end up around 41 wins or slightly above. So they are a potential playoff team, but the east is stronger around them as well. If Drummond makes the superstar leap, the team could be really dangerous. Stan Van Gundy has my faith, since he had a vision and executed on it in a way that makes sense (his offensive scheme with the Magic was a precursor to how today's game is played and he is still a great in game strategist).

FORM A FUCKING WALL.

Indiana Pacers
I think you're underplaying the loss of Hibbert and David West. Hibbert fell off a bit but was still the main reason the Pacers were good on defense. West was their second best defender as well even if he slowed down a bit too, and they didn't replace either with anyone ready to contribute to a playoff team. One of the biggest reasons that Paul George was able to be so tenacious on defense is that he knew that Hibbert was at the rim so even if he got beat, he could funnel players right into Hibbert for a contested shot. He doesn't have the same advantage now. Ian Mahinmi is really foul prone and useless on offense, Jordan Hill can't defend and sadly may be their best big man, and Myles Turner will probably be really good someday but I'm not expecting that this year. Monta Ellis is a weird fit and I think he could be detrimental if he's taking too many shots away from George and Hill. Paul George has looked good in the preseason but we also don't know if he'll be back to his normal levels since that was such a gruesome injury. I'm rooting for him because he's one of the few true two way players in the league and has old school sensibilities with a new NBA skillset, but I don't think him getting heavy power forward minutes is going to do his body any favors since he'll get the crap beaten out of him most nights.

One thing you didn't mention is a full season of George Hill, who played like an All-Star after coming back. If that's his real level of play, then the Pacers could make some noise since they'll have two stars.

George and Hill should make this team respectable but I think bigs are a huge weakness and the defense is going to get worse. The bench is also pretty weak aside from Stuckey. George's injury was fluky and he was pretty durable before that, but if he gets injured for any sustained period of time, this team is toast. I don't see any scenario where they can hang with the Cavs, and I'm not convinced they even make the playoffs.

Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee was actually pretty lousy after the MCW-Brandon Knight trade (10-16), which I think hurt both teams a lot in the short term with Milwaukee limping to the playoffs and Phoenix completely falling out of the hunt. MCW's shot is broken as fuck and having a point guard who can't shoot is becoming a humongous liability in today's game (look at Rondo). He's a potentially good playmaker but he turns the ball over a ton. Khris Middleton (AUGH WHY DID DETROIT TRADE HIM) is really good and I won't say anything else about that. Giannis is a player unlike any that I've ever seen and I don't know what to make of him. Offensively he still doesn't always look like he knows what he's doing and then he'll do ridiculous shit like take two steps and dunk from halfcourt (only a slight exaggeration). He's still not a complete package because he's not consistent, but he's already a good defender and he's still really young. Jabari I think will turn out well but he's a bit behind in his development from the injury. In his time on the court, he seemed ready for a number one role on offense, although he isn't consistent at all yet. I like Monroe but don't necessarily think  Milwaukee is the best fit because it already has some major spacing problems (in the playoffs, the Bulls could play like five feet off these guys since you could let them take jumpshots). He gives the Bucks a legitimate post presence which they need, but there are matchups that make using Jabari and Monroe together a terrible idea defensively. Monroe isn't very agile (but a solid post defender) and Parker is a trainwreck on defense, so any 4 or 5 with range can probably rip these two apart by drawing them away from the rim. The other three starters are really good defensively, so it will be interesting to see how this works out. John Henson is a weird muppet with fifteen foot arms so he should help with rim protection but he seems to pair better with Jabari than Monroe, and a Henson/Monroe combo has no range at all.

Offensive spacing is going to be the question here. Middleton is the only consistent shooter so far and people may be able to afford to crowd him, double Monroe, and completely sell out on weaker shooters like MCW. MCW and Giannis in transition should help and I think the Bucks should try to push the pace a bit more to take advantage of the athletes they have. I don't think they put it all together this year but this is a good core and should make a playoff run. Kidd is a surprisingly good coach for all the silly hijinks he did to get his job.

Atlanta Hawks
Also disagree here, the Hawks starting five was great when they played together and were massively hampered when any one of them didn't play. The lost Carroll and didn't replace him with anyone. Thabo can do some of the same things but worse and he still may be recovering from his injury (he should also sue the shit out of the police and Hawks fans should be really pissed about that incident).  Tiago Splitter is a good pickup who should help spell Horford from defending 5s. The German point guard dude who is the backup looks potentially special, although he's a far cry from Teague right now. Picking up Tim Hardaway Jr for the 15th (I think?) pick was one of the more puzzling moves in the draft, since he has been pretty useless on court so far but I don't know how much of that is the Knicks and how much that is him. Mike Scott is also facing up to 20 years for a drug charge, so that's another important piece that's gone.

They're going to take a step back and they overachieved a bit last year as is. I think their run was awesome last year and their team play was beautiful to watch but I think their opponents started to figure them out towards the end of the year, especially in the playoffs. Still a solid top four team in the east I think but definitely closer to low 50 wins than 60 I think.

Charlotte Hornets
Every peewee football team is named the Bobcats or the Wildcats which is awful, and Hugo the Hornet is such a perfectly coquettish mascot. My old obsession with NBA Jam makes the Hornets the only canonical Charlotte team name.

This team probably won't make the playoffs without MKG, not with how crowded the middle of the east is. Batum was a weird pickup because he has no good reason to resign with Charlotte and they may have traded Vonleh for nothing. Al Jefferson is a throwback to old school center post games, and when he's on it's great to watch, but he's breaking down healthwise. Kemba Walker is really streaky and doesn't defend well. Frank Kaminsky provides spacing and he provides a solid postup player if Jefferson goes down but he's so slooooow. The rest of the team is scrappy and annoying but pretty unskilled or one dimensional, and the team doesn't have any credible offensive weapons outside of big Al. Also, without MKG and Biyombo, this team could be horrendous on defense. If MKG played they might be in the mix, but they're probably in the low 30s now.

Miami Heat
This is a team that, health permitting, could definitely come out of the east. They actually match up really well with Cleveland and can take advantage of its lack of athleticism in a way that a lot of teams can't. Dragic is really crafty and could torch Kyrie, Wade is still really productive when he can play, Luol Deng has always done a credible job against LeBron, Bosh as the main man could give Kevin Love a lot of trouble, especially on defense, and Hassan Whiteside was a revealation.

On the flip side, if Whiteside's production was just a mirage (small sample size and he's kind of a headcase), things change a lot. Dragic has back problems, Wade didn't play a lot of games due to oldness and won't play on back to backs, and Deng's production is decreasing due to age and years of Thibs. Haslem and Birdman are getting really old, although they still have uses, but each bench player is at least useful and probably won't hurt you much. The team has a lot of guys at the end of their athletic peak, but Spoelstra is still a really good coach and Bosh has thrived as a main option again. I think people forget how good the dude is since he was willing to take a hit on his numbers behind James and Wade, but he's still a viable number one option like he was during his Raptor days. Justise (great name) probably won't do much this year, but people say he has superstar potential, and it's just unfair that Pat Riley keeps getting these dudes.

Top four finish, but can easily finish second. If they rest Wade for stretches, that hurts their seeding in the playoffs but a well rested Wade could be a huge secret weapon in the playoffs.

Orlando Magic
This young core is really promising but they're mostly under 23 and will get their asses kicked for a few years still. Elfrid Payton's a lot of fun but he cannot shoot at all, like worse than Rondo at his worst. Oladipo has taken incremental steps, but he's also young and can be a lockdown guy in the future. I think the league needs another star two guard and he may be it so long as he improves his shooting. Harris is kind of overrated since he only scores and is useless otherwise, but he does score often and efficiently. Vuvecic is also kind of an empty stats guy so far but he is also young. Gordon and Fournier have potential, but the main event is Hezonja, who has the biggest balls, like ever. He's going to be in so many gifs this season and Scott Skiles is going to hate him so fucking much. He is probably going to suck this year, but he's already one of the more exciting players in the league and he hasn't played a single minute.

Skiles is probably a good coach for them since he will teach them how to play basketball and they'll have to defend or they won't sniff the court. The players will be miserable and grumble but they should at least come out as better players until they inevitably tune Skiles out in 2-3 years. By then, though, this should be a playoff team that will be really annoying to play against. If he makes it so we can't see Hezonja dunk over three dudes or shoot a 3 0.00001 seconds into the shot clock because of a missed defensive assignment then he can go fuck himself.

Washington Wizards
I still don't quite believe in this team because their coach is Randy Wittman and Randy Wittman is worse at his job than anyone in America not named Kim Davis. I still can't tell whether playing unwieldy lineups until the playoffs and then using Paul Pierce as a 4 was on purpose or whether he just stumbled upon it, but that was the only reason they did anything in the playoffs. I also think their playoff run was a bit illusory, beating a cratering Raptors team and giving the Hawks fits mainly because of injuries (although the Wizards missed Wall).

Wall's great and fun to watch, but he's the only player I really trust. Beal seemed different in the playoffs but he hasn't taken the step forward on a consistent basis, often settling for 2s even though he's a strong outside shooter. Otto Porter looked terrible until this postseason and maybe he genuinely improved but it's too soon to tell. Nene's getting old and couldn't be played in some playoff situations, which is a shame because I've always liked him. Gortat is a super interesting dude but he's also getting old. The Wizards are a weird collection of up and coming players along with super old dudes who won't be able to walk in two years, so their future is up in the air, but I don't think anything they've done moves the needle very much, losing Pierce does hurt, and the most of the east has improved around them. Likely still a playoff team though.

[The Duck]

WEST

OKC Thunder
Since Detroit won't be winning any championships soon, I really hope these guys win this year. I don't think Kevin Durant leaves, but I'm biased because the night in night out chance to see two legitimate MVP players together is too enticing (and if not for that Harden trade, that would make 3 MVP level dudes who all play amazingly well together. Such a disastrous trade). Russell Westbrook had an inhuman and inhumane stretch of play that is unlike anything I've seen before. He's better than Derrick Rose at his best and it's not close. He has the psychosis of Allen Iverson but is more skilled. He broke his face and only missed a few games. On the other side, Durant is my favorite current player and one of the few who has a chance of breaking 30k points. He transformed from a one dimensional player to one of the best scorers of all time, with strong rebounding, passing, and defense to back it up. Ibaka, if healthy, has somehow learned to shoot 3s and is as good on defense as ever. Getting rid of Kendrick Perkins can only help this team and is probably worth five wins, and Steven Adams is so annoying that he will probably get everyone on an opposing playoff team ejected someday.

Morrow's a great role player, Kyle Singler should be able to fill in here and there and Augustin is a credible backup. The problem comes with Dion Waiters and Enes Kanter. Waiters has played with LeBron, Durant, and Westbrook and still insists on calling for the ball as if he's the best player on the floor. Kanter is a really good offensive player but gives most of that back on defense. Portland trolled with a max offer, which OKC would have to sign or else they would have lost Kanter and everything they traded for Kanter for absolutely nothing. With a full contingent, I think Durant and Ibaka can cover for Kanter's weaknesses, but at some point, he's going to have to hold his own on defense and he has shown little ability to do so. I think he makes for a great sixth man so he can torch weaker players, but it's weird to have paid a dude that much to come off the bench.

Scott Brooks was a limited offensive coach and there are glimpses of similarities between this and the Mark Jackson Warriors (Brooks is a better coach of course), where incredibly talented offensive players are held back a bit by an uncreative system. On talent alone, there was no reason that OKC shouldn't have been a historically great offense but they weren't. I can't say if Billy Donovan will be the guy, but his Florida teams were really good and had a lot of talent that was incorporated really well (Horford, Noah, Corey Brewer), overcoming an Ohio State team with a healthy Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. Brooks was a good defensive coach, though, and he probably would have found a way to cover Kanter up defensively given more time. Donovan was really good at coaching good defensive players, but Noah was an insanely good defensive talent and Brewer and Horford were also  instinctual defenders in college, so it's hard to say whether Donovan molded them into what they are, but he definitely did use them in ways that best suited their strengths. That's the hope for OKC fans.

If one of the two stars go down, this team may still be able to make the playoffs. Kevin Durant is pissed. Westbrook is even more pissed. This team will be scary but a lot depends on what Donovan does and if he can pull a Kerr.

Portland Trailblazers
Ouch. Uh... well, Lillard should be top five in scoring? They picked up some young talent but are in for a rebuild. I can't help but feel bad for Portland fans, because they should probably have a championship already around a Greg Oden, Brandon Roy, and LaMarcus Aldridge core. Man that could have been good, but a more painful hypothetical is how good they would be if they drafted Durant instead.

Utah Jazz
A lot of people laughed and laughed and laughed when Gordon Hayward got his 62 million/4 year contract but dude is living up to it. He's an All-Star level player and I wouldn't have guessed it. The Jazz immediately turned their season around after trading Kanter and playing Gobert more, and Gobert and Derrick Favors are by far the best defensive pair of bigs in the league. Favors is one of the more underrated players out there, and he's easily a 20/10 guy with more minutes. Gobert looks like a future superstar, and it's kind of amazing how well the Jazz have rebuilt after losing Stockton/Malone, then Deron/Boozer. They only had one year that was really bad, and that's a quick rebuild in the NBA. As is, the Jazz look poised to fight for a playoff spot in a crowded west, and somehow they may compete without a credible point guard. Exum's injury sucked, and he wasn't particularly good last year but was a big part of why the Jazz were great defensively in the second half. Trey Burke is just kind of bad in a way that I wasn't expecting coming out of Michigan. I would say that bad point guard play is killer for playoff hopes since Hayward handles the ball so much, but maybe the coaching staff can come up with something unconventional to make up for it, which should be interesting to follow. These guys should be fun.

Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have had a really depressing trajectory since George Karl and Iguodala left. Ty Lawson lost focus and is kind of an alcoholic, but Mudiay has a ton of potential and has good vision although he can't shoot and will probably be bad this year. I really like Gallinari but Jusuf Nurkic was the standout player this season. He's a weird dude who has a hideous but effective post game and just kind of bulls dudes over. The rest of the dudes are kind of unremarkable other than Faried who underperformed. The Nuggets will probably be bad again but they do have a future and at least should  be more watchable than last season, where everyone was just miserable.

Minnesota
Wiggins and Towns, Wiggins and Towns. That's it. Like the Wizards, there are some young stars and dudes who aren't going to be in the league in a few years. Towns looks awesome. Wiggins I'm not 100% on. He looks good but hasn't really produced yet, but you can see what he can be if things come together. This team will still be bad but in the mid to high 20s range bad rather than 17 wins bad. At any rate, I do wish Flip Saunders the best with his health issues. It isn't looking great but hopefully he's getting the best quality care.

Dallas Mavericks
Even with DeAndre, I think that would have propped Dallas up a bit but not enough to make them contenders, but it really would have killed the Clippers, so I think that move just would have diluted the west's talent a bit. As is, this team is kind of screwed. Dirk's noticeably older, Tyson is gone, Monta is gone, Wes Matthews is a question mark, Parsons underperformed, Deron Williams is already injured. Rajon Rondo was a terrible trade for the Mavs last year. Their defense was bad but the offense was top in the league at the time of the trade, and that's probably what they should have stuck with instead of letting go of some useful players for them. Jae Crowder was good but Brandan Wright was insane for them for that opening stretch. Dirk has been loyal and will stick with this team, and Rick Carlisle is a great coach who probably should never have been fired by Detroit, but the west has not gotten easier and a lot of teams like the Jazz are going to pass the Mavs by.

New Orleans Pelicans
As much as people talk about Westbrook, Durant, and James, I think people are still hesitant to call Anthony Davis the best player in the league, but may be. Part of it is that he's so young and that his team hasn't done a ton so far, but he's not like any player in history. His production is just absurd for someone his age, and he's well rounded in every part of the game. The scary thing is that he's not a finished product yet. He gets a lot of blocks and steals but could still improve on defense, and he's adding a three point shot that will make him impossible to guard. He should probably win multiple MVPs in his career but I feel like he may get injured or the team around him may let him down. The roster construction on this team doesn't make a lot of sense. Asik was completely unplayable in the playoffs and is on a long contract.  Tyreke/Holiday/Gordon is a weird pileup at the guard spots, and they're all individually above averagish but it's hard to see how they fit unless you mismatch Tyreke at the 3. The rest of the team isn't very noteworthy, so my fear is that they're going to waste some of Anthony Davis's best years, and they don't have very many draft picks or capspace to build with. The Pelicans should compete for the playoffs as long as Davis is around but he does need help. Alvin Gentry is a really good offensive coach who built on D'Antoni's system for one of the best offenses of all time, so he should be a step up and may be able to get the backcourt to play in a way that makes more sense.

Memphis
This team hasn't changed and I think their run may be at its end. I actually have always like how tough this team has been, reminding me of old Detroit teams. Memphis has had some great series against the Thunder and the Clippers in past years (well, the games are ugly but you feel like each team actually hates each other which is actually a little refreshing in this buddy buddy NBA). Memphis's best chance was probably in 2013 when it beat a great Thunder team, but the Spurs were too good. I've always liked Conley and he would be a several time All-Star if he were out east, and I also like Zach Randolph because he refuses to give any concession to age. Marc Gasol signed a long term deal with the team and should help make them playoff level even in the west, but this team needs a scoring wing or something to push them over the edge at this point and they don't have it. Brandan Wright and Matt Barnes are nice pieces but Memphis is in contention and won't use its young picks very much. They are likely still a playoff team and will give someone hell, possibly getting to the second round, but they lack some extra oomph that can get them over the edge.

Houston Rockets
It seems they get overlooked a bit and I'm not sure why, but the Rockets definitely should be in the conversation with the top dogs in the west. They get Ty Lawson, who could be deadly off the bench and can play some off the ball, they get a full year of Dwight, they get Montiejunas and Patrick Beverly back (these were a big loss in the playoffs). Morey's made his perfect moneyball team, with dudes who can only shoot 3s or draw fouls, and it works. It isn't aesthetically pleasing at all to watch Harden crash into the lane or chuck 3s, but he's really good at it and no one has been able to stop it. This can be a one man team as it was for much of the year, because the role players are good shooters or utility defenders. There are some young players that look really good too, like Capela and KJ McDaniels, but it's unclear how much time they will get if the team is trying to get homecourt advantage. On the other hand, Dwight is always injured with something nowaday and seems to have back problems, which isn't good for a center. Houston has depth to cover for losing Dwight but they can't replace his impact.

San Antonio Spurs
People know Duncan is good, but he's like top 5-6 of all time to me. Better than Kobe, better than Garnett, and better than Bird and Magic . He has longevity, none of those other guys other than Garnett has his defensive impact, his teams have never won less than 50 games a season for 17 years, and he's essentially been as efficient on the court for the past five years. He's now 39 and doesn't seem like he's fading, and that's amazing in basketball terms. I will be genuinely sad when he retires.

People have long said that the Spurs are boring, but those people obviously hadn't seen the Spurs in the past few years. They play perfect basketball. Their guys know where to be and where another player will be seconds later. They almost never miss defensive rotations. Watching Kawhi play defense is like watching a shark circling around its prey. Danny Green took 10 million/year to stay in this organization when he could have made almost double that. David West took $10 million less to go here. LaMarcus is now on board. They got some Serbian dude and I don't know anything about him other than the fact that he'll probably be good by virtue of the fact that the Spurs picked him.

Even with all that, this team still may not win because of how top heavy the west is, but for as long as I've been following basketball, this organization has put forward a team that can contend. Everyone knows they will be good, but I'm unsure how good. Tony Parker reportedly looks like he's done, and he was terrible in the playoffs. Ginobili is also getting older. There are some intriguing young players but they probably won't be a position to help the team much if they're trying to win a championship. LaMarcus is going to have to play center occasionally and he will take some hits, which makes me question whether letting Splitter go was a good idea. His midrange game should fit in, and probably moreso if he can develop a three point shot. David West is tough and belongs in an older NBA, but his midrange shot is also deadly, which should help a lot with spacing. A full season of Kawhi could let the Spurs have around 60 wins but they may be short of that because Pop doesn't play his guys that many minutes and he'll be resting guys in March and April.

LA Lakers
This team owes the 76ers its pick unless it's top three so it is really in their best interest to tank this year. Kobe should have some DNP - Olds, Russell should have free reign to be shitty his first year, Julius Randle should defend point guards, and they should run postups for Roy Hibbert on 90% of their plays. At the same time, Kobe won't let the team actively tank because he is Kobe and is also chasing the all time scoring record, although if he goes all Kobe on everyone, he'll actually help the losing effort, but at the cost of the younger players' development. LA needs to make a case to free agents, especially superstars, that maanagement is competent and that there's a core to be built around even at the fringes, but there isn't very much evidence of it so far. They are shooting for 2016 since they have a lot of salary coming off in 2015, but the Lakers don't have much in terms of future picks or anything as a selling pooint other than Russell. They'd need to convince Durant, but I don't see why he'd leave for them unless some mega-collusion going on and even then I don't think he cares about the bigger market at all. Would Durant leave OKC for Mike Conley and Al Horford? I don't think so. How does the LA core beat Bosh/Dragic/Winslow? Or Golden State if things go right? I don't know. All I do know is that if the Lakers don't hit on some superstars (and they've already missed on Love), then their rebuilding process will be painful.

Sacramento Kings
This team's management is comically awful.

1) They fired Mike Malone, the one coach who DeMarcus Cousins likes, for no reason because
2) They fired the father of basketball analytics, Dean Oliver, and management strongly opposes the use of analytics to evaluate players
3) Their GM wanted the team to play 4 on 5 defense that was inspired by him coaching his daughter's basketball team
4) There was  a social media battle between George Karl and DeMarcus Cousins that looked like it was going to end up with the team having to choose one of them,
5) They paid Rajon Rondo after the season they had.
6) Traded Isaiah Thomas for basically nothing.
7) The Stauskas trade is fucking horrendous. It was a salary dump but they used the cap space for Rondo and a bunch of dudes who aren't really part of the long term future except maybe Koufos and at best he backs up Cousins. It involved giving up a top ten protected first to the 76ers and doing picks swaps in two other years.
8) Drafting Stauskas in the first place instead of almost anyone that came after him.
9) Willie Cauley-Stein?
10) They are so bad no one will take their money even after that salary dump.

And yet, the Lakers' management may be worse because they refused a trade for Cousins because they didn't want to part with Julius Randle. Cousins is on an incredibly good contract for his production and would be the first cog in a potentially great team if free agents went there. Conley, Horford, Cousins suddenly is a core that would have to make Kevin Durant think about leaving (although he probably still wouldn't).

Rudy Gay and Cousins are both good and Cousins is MVP caliber, but Rondo's quickly becoming unplayable since he doesn't shoot well and is terrified of getting fouled. This team isn't lacking in talent but it's probably not enough to get into the west playoffs without a monster season by Cousins. If I were him, I'd be unhappy about management too.

Phoenix Suns
So, I think Hornacek is a really good coach, but he was put in weird situations by management for a lot of the season. The midseason trade for Knight didn't work very well for them, but they're paying him $70 million now. They really mismanaged the Dragic/Bledsoe/Thomas situation last year, and it was really puzzling why they made the trade for Thomas when already they had such a glut at guard. That pissed Dragic off, who has been great for them. Then they pissed off the Morris twins by separating them, although they parted with the shittier twin (it's surprising to me that these dudes are twins and one of them is clearly inferior). They did a needless salary dump to the Pistons because they thought they could get LaMarcus and instead got Tyson Chandler, who is a piece only really helpful for contending teams. Knight and Bledsoe are weird since both need the ball so much, and both are more SGs than point guards. Knight at least can catch and shoot. Tyson's still a good player, but he's kind of going to be a waste for a team that's going to be around 40 wins. He would be useful for a number of Eastern up and comers but may spend the rest of his career on a lottery team.

LA Clippers
I'm not exaggerating by saying that Chris Paul is the best point guard I've seen play in my lifetime, and that was with Stockton, Nash, Isiah Thomas, and the tail end of Magic Johnson's career. He's done everything but win a championship, and last year was kind of heartbreaking for them. That Spurs series was one of the best playoff series in years (probably not as good as Heat/Spurs 2013), and if Paul doesn't tweak his hamstring, they probably dispatch Houston quickly and put up a good fight against the Warriors. As is, I have to question general manager Doc for some of these choices. They had absolutely no contingency plan if Jordan left and had to fake kidnap him and lock his agent out of a house in order to get him back. The starting five is awesome when they play but the problem has been the bench. The guys that he chose to round up the bench were mostly dudes who beat him in the playoffs (Josh Smith, Pablo Prigioni). You would expect him to be able to get something out of Lance Stephenson since he is a good coach, and if they do get Pacers Lance, then they may actually have an okay rotation going. Austin Rivers was an NBA joke until he made key contributions in the playoffs, so maybe he can be a useful backup. Otherwise, the team is likely in the same place as last year. I don't think getting homecourt matters that much for them as much as keeping Paul and Blake fresh. You can tell Blake is not putting as much effort into the regular season anymore, and maybe that's a smart thing since he was insanely good in the playoffs, putting up LeBron-like lines. They'll be getting playoff Pierce, who will probably win them some games as well but he's probably getting lots of rest during the season.

The one move they can do to improve is to see whether there are any takers for Jamaal Crawford. He has flamed out a bit in the playoffs the last few years, but he can still be a really useful sixth man for a team that needs scoring (like Memphis but they'll never do a deal with them).

This is one of those teams that I'm rooting for, solely because of Paul. People fucking hate him for some reason. He does flop and the Clippers do whine a lot, but I think that's overshadowed the fact that he's a once in a lifetime player.

Golden State Warriors
Jesus.

The Warriors are awesome. They are so much fun to watch and any night you'll see these crazy shots that have no business going in just swish. Curry is a player who is always on fire NBA Jam style, and he has been the best shooter in history, better than Allen, Nash, and Miller, in part because his release is so fast, he can shoot it while covered, and his transition 3 is deadly. He was a pretty clear MVP last year, and the only thing hurting him was that he didn't always have the numbers because his team was up so much by the third quarter that he didn't have to play . They could have pushed 70 wins if they wanted to, but they were probably smart not to. My favorite thing about their run was actually Shaun Livingston being a key player to their run. His injury was horrific, but he played his way back into the league and is a completely different but still really useful player.

But the thing that people don't talk about is defense. Everyone knows about Draymond, who is as unique a player as there has ever been. How this guy was a second rounder is an indictment on how fixed people are with player archetypes. I don't think anyone expected him to be this good, but he was a point forward who was great on defense in college and that's transferred perfectly to the pros. Bogut is still a great defender even without being able to block or jump, and they have Andre Iguodala coming off the bench, who is a terror.

The team they're bringing back is essentially the same minus David Lee who they barely used. They probably won't be historic next year but they are apparently still learning Kerr's offense. By the way, for anyone who says coaching doesn't matter in the NBA, just look at the difference between Mark Jackson and Kerr. Everyone in the world could have seen what the Warriors could have been but Jackson kept on insisting that Thompson and Barnes post up. To be fair, Jackson was probably pivotal in making the defense as good as it was, but what made Kerr's coaching so notable is that he unleashed the offense with no cost to the effectiveness of the defense, and that almost never happens with a new coach, let alone one a first year coach. 

There is an argument about whether they got lucky with some of their breaks (facing Cleveland without Kyrie and Love, not playing the Clippers or Spurs, playing Houston with an injured Dwight and without Beverly, Mike Conley getting injured, the Thunder not making the playoffs), but they beat everyone this year either way. They were just too good. The only one of those that may have mattered was if they had to play the Spurs or Clippers, and that was missed Warriors/Spurs this year is a damn shame.

The best counter to the Warriors style of play may be a very old school thing that Memphis and Cleveland were able to do in a few playoff games, but I don't think anyone has figured them out yet.

[Scar]

Go heat.

[Veryslightlymad]

So we disagree on a few points, but nothing so dramatically where I'd be really shocked.

I think our biggest disagreement is on Rondo. Rondo on the Mavs last year was truly awful. Rondo on the Celtics was, uh, scoring wise, still pretty bad, but otherwise his usual production. That trade derailed him. So I'm somewhat more inclined to think he still has something left.

I dunno why you can say the Kings signing of him was bad, though, either way. Like, Rondo was signed to a one year contract, and what else could they have spent the money on that would have anywhere near the potential impact? If it works, fantastic, he'll probably re-sign to revitalize his career. If it doesn't? Eh. He's already off the cap. It's not exactly a gamble.

[The Duck]

My main problem with Rondo is that he still thinks he's pre-injury Rondo and doesn't recognize when there is a favorable matchup for one of his teammates anymore. Like, in Dallas, literally every other player was a better option and opposing defenses dared Rondo to shoot and he couldn't make anyone pay for it. Spacing is already kind of a question for this team, even with Casspi and Bellinelli (who won't have the Spurs' spacing anymore), and Rondo probably won't help with much.

Also, it's probably mostly mental, but he for some reason cannot hit free throws anymore (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4BCVvwmH4o). He's at DeAndre Jordan levels now and you could tell that he was terrified to drive because he didn't want to be fouled. When he was younger, you had to at least respect his speed, but with the way he's shooting and if he's not driving, you can get away with ignoring him on offense nowadays. When Ranadive said he wanted to play 4 on 5, I don't think this is what he meant.

I think a bigger thing is that I don't think he's good for a team with younger players. The beginning of the season Boston was miserable. The players were miserable, Rondo was verbally expressing his misery, and he got in the way because at that point, Marcus was a more productive player who needed minutes and none of the other younger players were getting the ball at spots that benefited them very well. The Kings aren't as young, but adding a dude who sulked for a lot of the year, got in screaming matches with his coach, and put in so little effort that Dallas couldn't play him in the playoffs anymore is not a good thing for a team that is already filled with discontent. George Karl is also infamous for feuding with his players in public, which he has already done with Cousins and if Rondo acts up, it will be the same for him.

I guess my question is what would your best case scenario be for Rondo and the Rondo Kings? He may be able to help the shooters a bit but Cousins and Gay create their own shots most of the time. He's fallen off quite a bit on defense too although he is probably better than Collison on that side. Rondo has to perform this year or his career is finished, so it probably won't be a questions of effort, but he just hasn't been very good since his knee injury.

I have a problem with the contract because no one else was going to pay Rondo that much, so they outbid themselves, and I honestly think they would have been better off starting Darren Collison, who was really solid for them. I think it'd be better to keep the extra capspace for flexibility midseason, which gives you the ability to absorb contracts and possibly take picks in salary dumps.

As an aside I do think DeMarcus Cousins has a right to be pissed about firing Mike Malone. They were 9-6 and beat Portland, the Clippers, Phoenix, the Spurs, Chicago, and the Pelicans in that stretch.  DeMarcus went down and they started losing BECAUSE DEMARCUS WENT DOWN, and they fired Malone after that. Honestly, had they stayed the course, they probably are in that fight for the 8th seed.

[Veryslightlymad]

Coming back from an injury and being on a new team and not having an offseason with that team and being basically the opposite of what that team looks for in your position is a really shitty situation to toss someone in, and Rondo (who I am defending a lot here, but I'm ordinarily not on his side, mind) got a raw deal.
It's totally possible he's done, but I'm thinking he forced it, like, a lot.

Basketball teams aren't "Old" or "young" with no mixtures of dudes. They are all jumbled together and it's hoped that it works. Teams like Oklahoma City, where all the elite players are about the same age are an aberration. About the only other really good team I can think of like that is Golden State, and even they relied heavily on the veteran Iguodala. So no, I'm not really concerned about meshing ages, here.

Collison isn't necessarily a bad mix with Rondo either, and I'm betting they're going to have a lot of time on the floor together. Unlike Rondo, he can actually shoot, but he's nowhere near as good of a playmaker, and that's what I think you're discounting.

Rondo is one of the best playmakers in the league. In his terrible season last year, he was still FIFTH in assists. Of all players. (His trajectory in Boston was on pace to be second). Dinged up, on a new team with a completely different offense, in a completely different role, regularly dissed by his teammates (save Ellis), and he still goes out and puts on the fifth best passing performance of the year. Everyone knows he can't shoot, so that hand is tied, but he still makes plays at an elite rate. There are 30 teams in the league, having a top 5 guy in anything is a luxury.

His job isn't going to be getting more points for Gay and Cousins, it'll be getting everyone else offense and making their job somewhat easier. As for the ten million being the biggest monetary offer, yeah, it probably was, if everything was just dollars and cents. I'm thinking that's about the value they figured would be enough to make Rondo consider coming to the Kings instead of maybe taking a pay cut and going to a contender on a reduced role. I mean, fuck it, David West just left an amount of money on the table equal to Rondo's entire salary.

Who's to say that, of course for way less money, say, Houston, who badly needed someone other than James Harden to run the offense a little, wouldn't look like an attractive option?

In absence of context, speaking conceptually here, if you ask me if I'd rather take a basically free gamble right now, and what I was giving up was my ability to wait and potentially take a bigger unknown gamble in the future for unknown payoff, I would take the former 10 times out of 10, because you are getting a better return. That is smart gambling.

~~~

So yeah, it's all speculation, either way. Who actually knows how he's gonna do? I just think they made the smarter -bet-.
(That Philadelphia trade though. ....oh, lord. What was that?)

[The Duck]

I think there's a difference between getting a lot of assists and helping your offense. He's still an elite playmaker with really good vision, but he's always padded his assist numbers a bit (like, passing on a layup to pass to a midrange shooter which he still did at Dallas) and his turnovers are crazy high. Because of turnovers, the free throws/not driving, and how untenable it is to have a point guard who can't shoot nowadays, he really hurts the offenses he's on overall (Dallas's offense looked a lot better with Devin Harris, who isn't as good as a playmaker) because his personal contributions were so poor and what he did to team spacing. Of the top ten assist guys, I think he's the only one who you can argue doesn't improve his offenses.

I'm making it sound like he's the worst player in the league, but he did once have a really good midrange shot and since his free throw thing is mostly mental, maybe that can be fixed. If that's addressed, that opens things up a lot. He still has enough speed to finish at the rim and he can help teams if he can shoot well enough to keep defenses honest. Rudy Gay and Cousins were unassisted on most of their shots, but maybe it's better for the offense overall to get them shots in the flow of a coherent offense. He should help Casspi, Ben McLemore, and Belinelli, who need their shots created. Also, DeMarcus does respect Rondo, although this could be a double edged sword if Rondo is unhappy.

It's not a free gamble since now they're at the cap. You keep that cap room to make trades exactly like the one they did with Philadelphia. These trades just usually aren't so one sided and dumb, but in a league that has the Lakers, the Nets, the Knicks (and the Kings), there definitely are teams that are dumb enough to make it.

---
Anyway, some team in Texas, reportedly Dallas, is looking interested in Larry Sanders, the dude who walked away from like $30 million to deal with his anxiety/depression. He was a really good shot blocker and was able to rotate on guards well. It'd be kind of funny if the Texas team were actually the Spurs and not the Mavericks, but if he is in shape, he could help either team.

[Veryslightlymad]

If he's willing to play, that's kind of huge.

Sanders is kind of a dick, but he's always been a really good basketball player, and I've respected the hell out of him for making the choice to retire so young for the reasons he did. It's almost unheard of in sports, but if you're not happy, you're not happy, so good on him.

[The Duck]

I just hope that he's in a good place before coming back. He's probably not in want for anything but he did leave a ton of money on the table. That takes perspective that I think a lot of players lack.

Wanna do seeding and playoff/Finals predictions that will probably look ridiculously stupid two months into the season?

[Veryslightlymad]

Oh, shit, absolutely. I did for SA and TOTALLY FORGOT an obvious playoff team even existed, somehow, so my prediction is fucked from day 1.

[Scar]

Bold predictions.

Heat and magic make the playoffs.

But...heat could be great if Winslow turns out to be the steal of the draft. Remember the Celtics wanted him BAD! 6 picks they were willing to give up?

Thanks MJ!

[The Duck]

I'll do shitty predictions later.

So, Lamar Odom is in critical condition and it's not looking good. The dude has had a tough go. His mom passed away early on, his dad was addicted to heroin and was never around, his grandmother who raised him passed away when he was in his early 20s, his two best friends died within of each other, and he's had a child die of SIDS (jesus christ). He had some drug problems at the beginning of his career but he seemed stable when he was playing and winning for the Lakers. In some ways, the trade from the Lakers may have been the worst thing possible for him since that removed him from the structured environment he had known and thrived in for years and he had trouble with drugs the following season with Dallas.

[The Duck]

These are going to look really stupid in... probably like five days. I like that NBA teams are slowly improving. There are few truly putrid teams right now other than the 76ers and the Lakers, and one of those is putrid on purpose. Fewer teams are completely unwatchable, and I think most teams have a case for being worth your time except for Brooklyn, which has been the perfect storm of boring and terrible the last few years.

COMPLETELY BASELESS PLAYOFFS PREDICTIONS
East
---
Cleveland
Atlanta
Chicago
Miami
Toronto
Boston
Washington
Milwaukee
---
Detroit
Indiana
Charlotte
Brooklyn
New York
Orlando
Philadelphia

Cleveland tier (Cleveland)
I think Cleveland may start out slowly since they won't have Kyrie or Shumpert to start the year, but LeBron, Love, Mo Williams, and Mozgov should be able to weather the storm, especially if Blatt finally learns how to use Love. Even if they get the two seed it won't really matter.

Can possibly beat Cleveland if everything goes right and/or LeBron dies (Atlanta/Chicago/Miami)
These are are strong but flawed teams.

Chicago is probably going to start a little slowly since Dunleavy misses some time, Gasol played a ton this summer, and Rose didn't have a training camp or preseason to acclimate with the team but that may be offset a bit by better play from Noah and Gibson after both played hurt last year. However, they may open up the offense and they actually do have some intriguing young dudes (Portis and McDermott) for once.

Miami is aging and won't have a healthy Wade every night so they may not be that strong a regular season team although they will be deadly in the playoffs if everyone is relatively healthy. They don't have any reliable shooting anymore though.

Atlanta has a big risk for a falloff if any of the starting five gets injured and they have lost depth but they're extremely well coached. I think Splitter helps a lot and should

Really Annoying First Round Exits (Toronto/Boston/Washington)
These dudes are probably around mid to maybe high 40s as opposed to ~50 from Atlanta/Chicago/Miami. Washington could take a leap but I don't believe in their coach and they didn't do much to get demonstrably better. Toronto depends on Lowry (who looks monstrous right now) and how their defensive pieces fit. Boston has a ton of depth which helps in the regular season but might not matter quite as much in the playoffs when rotations get shorter.

Fighting for 8th (Milwaukee/Detroit/Indiana)
If Charlotte had MKG they would probably also be here. I actually think all three teams can be above .500, which should make it so the 8th seed won't be way under .500 like they have been recently. Given steps forward from certain players (in particular, Giannis and Drummond), there may not be that much difference between these three teams and the teams above since all should be in the 40s win range. I don't like Milwaukee's fit since they played demonstrably worse with MCW and some of their pieces don't make a ton of sense together defensively.

I am high on Detroit and could see them making the playoffs (they were basically .500 after Josh Smith).

I don't like Indiana's bigs at all and I think Monta is a tricky fit without knockdown shooters.

just kinda shitty (Charlotte/Brooklyn/New York/Orlando)
These teams are probably in the high 20s/low 30s. Charlotte is bombing from 3 but I'm not convinced anyone on the team is going to be very good at it.

New York now has competent players now but I don't think makes a ton of sense as a team.

Brooklyn is boring as shit.

Skiles is a pretty good defensive coach but I don't think he as a ton to work with, at least with the bigs, and he doesn't bother with offense so I still see the Magic being a bit of a mess on that side. Hezonja will have like 4 bullshit buzzerbeaters but they probably still won't be very good.

Nope 
Philadelphia will be bad but probably low 20s bad rather than high teens bad. The team is very watchable though.

East 1st Round
---
Cleveland (1) > Milwaukee (8) in 4
the kids aren't there yet, but we may see moments where Giannis outdoes LeBron athletically which will look weird

Atlanta (2) > Washington (7) in 7
Washington ended up giving Atlanta a hard time, much of that without a healthy Wall, although they also won't have playoff Pierce.

Chicago (3) > Boston (6) in 6
By the end of the year, Chicago could be clicking pretty well once they get all their guys back. Boston has good perimeter defenders but they probably won't be able to stop Jimmy Butler consistently, and no one on the Celtics can defend Pau Gasol in the post.

Miami (4) > Toronto (5) in 5
Still don't believe in Toronto in the playoffs much. As crazy as their homecrowd can be, teams have had no problems beating them there. A lot depends on which Lowry we get, though. Miami's still a lot more seasoned and more talented when healthy.

East 2nd Round
---
Cleveland (1) > Miami (4) in 7
As I mentioned, if healthy then Miami matches up with Cleveland as well as anyone in the east. Spoelstra is a much better coach than Blatt and Wade can probably be really dangerous with days of rest between game, but LeBron. This could also be a conference finals and Miami could win it, although I don't think they match up as well with anyone coming out of the west.

Chicago (3) > Atlanta (2) in 7
I think you can figure Atlanta out in a 7 game series, but their style of play can blindside you in the regular season when you're not as prepared for them.

Eastern Finals
---
Cleveland (1) > (3) Chicago in 6
This is about the time when Chicago has dudes starting to break down and when LeBron stops fucking around.

West
---
Golden State
Oklahoma City
San Antonio
LA Clippers
Houston
Memphis
New Orleans Pelicans
Utah Jazz
---
Phoenix
Dallas
Sacramento
Portland
Denver Nuggets
Minnesota
LA Lakers

fucking monsters (Golden State, OKC, San Antonio)
god damn.

I don't see any reason to think Golden State will slow down. They didn't lose anyone important from their rotation and no one has shown that they can figure out their offense or defense. They did have an unreasonably good luck with health and Bogut is usually injury prone and it's huge if he goes down.

Durant and Westbrook are pissed and that alone may be enough for them to win 60. Also it is remarkable to watch them actually run plays now. It's hard to call anyone favorites with the west the way it is but this easily could be their year.

Spurs gonna Spur.

just regular monsters (Clippers/Houston)
The Clippers probably have the best starting five in the league. The question is their weird mix of bench players, all of whom could combust or torch the opposition.

I don't think Houston has a bad player on the roster, kind of like Boston but if Boston had James Harden.

the rest (Memphis/Pelicans/Utah)
Memphis will never go away.

NO: Anthony Davis. I am concerned though since I think half the team is injured right now and they may not be able to afford a slow start but they also have Anthony Davis.

I think the Jazz ride the wave they were on second half of last year.

I think it takes like 47 wins to get into the western playoffs this year.

could sneak into playoffs if something goes right/wrong (Phoenix/Dallas/Kings)
A healthy Brandon Knight makes Phoenix at least interesting.

Dallas could start off really badly because Matthews and Parsons and maybe Deron are likely out for a while, they could easily be worse than the Kings and some of these other teams.

Sacramento is really precarious but honestly if they do respond to George Karl they can probably be decent.

young and shitty (Portland/Denver/Minnesota)
Between the two of them, Lillard and McCollum will shoot a hundred times a game and it will work out more than it should.

I think Emmanuel Mudiay will be good and he already looks like he knows how to play point guard but he won't be able to shoot. They should run, run, run.

The Wolves will at least be competitive this year but they take a hit because of Sam Mitchell and there will be games where none of them look like they have ever played basketball before. Instant League pass material.

just shitty (Lakers)
One of the sadder things I saw recently was Vince Carter fast break where he got blocked by the rim on an attempted dunk. That's exactly how I feel watching Kobe nowadays. I don't know what their play is this season, but I think they should just tank and let the kids play, but Byron Scott won't let this happen. The really need their pick in order to create something resembling a future.

West Playoffs Round 1
---
Golden State (1) > Utah (8)  in 6
Utah is young and rangy and might have the defense to keep Golden State under wraps but they won't be able to generate a reliable offense other than Gordon Hayward.

OKC (2)  > New Orleans (7) in 5
Two man team beats one man team.

Spurs (3)  > Memphis (6) in 6
Neither of these teams seems to go away, but the Spurs have been interminable for longer.

Clippers (4) > Houston (5) in 7
Probably another historic first round series. Both teams are probably better than last year but I think the Clippers will be out for revenge.

West Round 2
Golden State (1) > Clippers (4) in 7
What we should have gotten last year. This should be highly entertaining but the Clippers probably start to drop games in incredibly embarassing fashion because of Lance or Josh Smith.

OKC > San Antonio in 7 (holy shit this is good)
man I don't know

Western Finals
OKC > Golden State in 7
god damn it I said I don't know

Finals
OKC > Cleveland in 6
whatever i just want this to happen

[NotMiki]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/76ers-kasich-poll-numbers

the truth hurts

[The Duck]

Yeah, the 76ers have Trump-level winning rates.

(oh man this country is fucked)

[The Duck]

https://twitter.com/Twolves_PR/status/658342139076587520

Flip Saunders passed away today. It took a serious turn because he was out for the season, but I don't know if most people knew that it was quite this serious. He coached some great Minnesota and Detroit teams and by all accounts was a nice guy. This is really a bummer.

[Veryslightlymad]

Damnit. I really liked him.

His family must be absolutely crushed. The early news was optimistic, but then nothing panned out the way they said it should.

[NotMiki]

To the surprise of most people not named Brad Stevens (who I am imagining doing a Gendo Ikari pose right now) looks like Marcus Smart is keeping the starting job over Isaiah Thomas.  Apparently he took a big step forward on offense in the offseason.  We'll see!

[The Duck]

I think Marcus Smart is fine as the starter, and Thomas is going to get starter minutes either way. I think Thomas works better off the bench with a bunch of guys who can't create at all to minimize having to use Evan Turner very much as a secondary ball handler. He also can't defend worth shit. If anything, I think Avery Bradley should get his minutes cut a bit since he's a little overrated defensively. Boston does have an enticing possibility where they keep it close with the starters with smothering perimeter defense, wear teams down, and then start chipping away at tired teams or bench players with a completely fresh second unit (Thomas, Turner/RJ Hunter, Jerebko, Amir, Olynyk). Boston's a weird team that can throw two entire lineups at you, although I foresee certain matchups being bad for this team. I also think Lee isn't going to be very good for this team since he's going to be wanting to get numbers for his new contract. Thinking about it, I don't really like Turner, Bradley, and Lee as far as fit on this team short or long term, so it'll be interesting to see how that will be navigated.

Opening Night Extremely Tepid Takes
---
Detroit vs Atlanta

I think this is what I was envisioning when Van Gundy was putting together this team. Having four dudes who can shoot with a monster rebounder and post presence is a pretty good plan, and Drummond was able to make the Hawks pay for hacking him. KCP looked awesome. I don't even think the Pistons played particularly well (Morris chucked a lot, Drummond was just tossing shit at the rim with no rhyme or reason, and Steve Blake looks lost), but this is a vision of what it could be.

The Hawks really miss DeMarre Caroll. They really didn't do a credible job of replacing him, unless Sefolosha/Bazemore step up. I think Tiago is good but he changes what the team is able to play like and the team is very conventional when he's on the floor.

Cleveland vs Chicago

I like the Hoiberg is willing to use Chicago's younger dudes, and Snell looks much improved. Less isoball with Rose, although that was still there, but starting Mirotic really does add an element on the offense that they didn't have. Gasol didn't look good but got the game ending block and apparently had 6 blocks? The Bulls made a lot of shots that are low percentage (long 2s), but I think their ceiling depends on whether Gasol can recapture last year (plus I guess which Rose we get but I think that ship has sailed).

Cleveland still looks disorganized offensively, and a lot of sets ended with JR Smith long jumpers, which is not ideal. Mo Williams is good but they miss what Kyrie brings. There were times when they use Love as the creative offensive threat that he can be, and he was the main reason for their comeback. LeBron was on the floor, like literally on the floor on his back, for most of a quarter, so whatever old man back injection he got may be acting up, which was bad because he was missing time during a big Chicago run. Noah's already hurt though.

New Orleans vs Golden State
I didn't watch all of this, but I saw Steph Curry drop 24 in the first quarter like he was a fucking NBA Jam character, and I saw nothing that makes me think that the Warriors won't be able to repeat. New Orleans on the other hand doesn't have a team outside of Davis right now (for the love of God they are starting Nate Robinson and Kendrick Parsons).

[Shale]

Philadelphia vs. Boston: anybody care to exchange a starting-quality PG for the very possibly functional back and limbs of Joel Embiid?

[NotMiki]

I'm at the game so I'll ask around.