It's after the halfway point in this season now and some things are going as expected (Warriors) and others are not. The disparity between the west and east has been dissipated this year, and in some instances it is unclear why. Many teams in the east have just become about average instead of putrid and 5 wins separate the 3rd and 11th seeds. No one is separating themselves and anytime someone goes on a run, another they'll lose to someone embarrassing. This is true of everyone in the east. On the other hand, good teams in the west have disappointed (Rockets, Pelicans).
East
1. Cleveland (30-12) - Initially I thought Cleveland would start slow because they were missing a lot of key pieces like Shumpert and Kyrie but they played fine. Then, they fired their coach! This was probably in the cards the entire time since Blatt was probably never LeBron's guy and they hired him thinking that he was going to be developing a young team. Blatt was never able to find a way to use Love after Kyrie came back, and Lue has spoken about using Love more at the elbows more, so perhaps their roles will shift. I think that Kyrie is actually a little overrated and he hasn't played especially well this year. People are talking about trades for him for Chris Paul and I actually don't see much wrong with it. Paul is someone who can get the most out of Love and allows LeBron a break from ballhandling duties and he is the superior player to Kyrie today, including scoring in my opinion. The Clips would get a worse player who wouldn't make them contend this year, but they do get a younger core to build around.
This team still has a lot of pieces that don't fit with each other very well, and they're not as interested in Mozgov compared to last year, moving forward with Tristan Thompson at center and Love or LeBron at the 4. That lineup is a lot more dynamic offensively. The Cavs seem to have more reliable depth than they had last year, with Dellevadova building on the finals run and Mo Williams providing some good shooting and secondary ballhandling. Of course, the main thing is that LeBron is still really fucking good. He has lost a step physically and is trying to lay stuff up shots that he would have dunked, but you can still tell he's conserving himself. And why shouldn't he? No one else in the east is coming up and challenging them. Sadly, I still think they're underperforming relative to what they could be. Blatt's motion offense would actually have been great for this, but LeBron didn't go for it and now it's a lot of isolations and underusing someone with Kevin Love's talents (post the dude up sometime!). One thing that is good is that this team can probably match up with most teams with some versatile lineups (Mozgov for bigger teams, Thompson for smallball). It has also been able to defend at an extremely high level without great individual defenders. Thompson is really good at defending pick and rolls. They're still the 4th best team in the league but have laid eggs against San Antonio and Golden State. Still, they're almost certainly making the finals barring some injury, but we don't know what Lue is going to change, if anything. He's already called out LeBron for and other players for not being in shape, so that is something.
2. Toronto (28-15) - Unlike last year, I think Toronto's start is for real. Skinny Kyle Lowry is for real, and Demar DeRozan is also playing really well. He's not settling for as many midrangers and is getting to the foul line more. The free agency acquisitions have really helped defensively, which was the main issue with them last season. Cory Joseph in particular allows there to be flexibility in lineups at the end of games since he can defend 1-3 and allows Lowry to play offball as a shooter. Scola was also a good pickup and can shoot 3s now. They've done this without much Jonas V or Carroll. In some ways, the team may be better without Jonas on offense in some ways since they can put shooters around and let Lowry and Derozan operate. If they get Atlanta Hawks Carroll back, they could at least give Cleveland some trouble in the playoffs.
3. Chicago (25-18) - This team has one primary problem and it's Derrick Rose. He's pretty worthless now and it's kind of depressing. He has some straight line speed but gets spooked around the basket and his midrange shot isn't hitting. He shoots way too much for the team's own good and singlehandedly brings the offense to being below average. Butler's more efficient, Pau is more useful as a post presence, and it seems like the shot distribution is just off. However, their other dudes can't hit shots either. Mirotic still doesn't look like he's used to the NBA 3 point line, and Tony Snell is almost totally useless. To play McDermott, he has to be Korver-esque because he's so poor defensively. Joakim Noah is down for the year so it doesn't look like there is going to be much the Bulls can do to make a trade to get better in season. Hoiberg was supposed to have an offense that opened things up but that hasn't happened (although they're still good defensively). I would play Portis and Aaron Brooks a little more but I don't really know what else you do. They're an above average team and it's hard to say they're at their ceiling but they don't have a ton of players you can be excited about other than Butler who is a real star. Gasol's still good but likely won't stick around. Rose will probably be gone and that is ultimately good. But the Bulls need some solid pieces around Butler for the future. It's not clear whether Mirotic is actually any good. I think Portis will be part of it but it's a question mark as to who else is worth keeping around there.
4. Atlanta Hawks (26-19) - The Hawks started off strong but they're pretty much performing in line with what I thought. They got a little lucky last year with close games and they lost Carroll, so some slippage is expected. Millsap might be having his best year although he isn't shooting 3s as well, mostly because of his awesome defense. Horford's effort is wavering and I think he might leave. Bazemore is a surprise but doesn't replace what Carroll did for them last year, especially on defense. However, I think where they've suffered most is actually Korver, who is shooting a human 3 point percentage and isn't shooting as much as he used to. I'm not exactly sure what's going on there. If he regains last year's form then the Hawks might be able to make some noise, but they've struggled to be as consistent as they were last year. Something's not quite right here. They don't have the free flowing pass happy offense that they did last year and they don't seem as fluid as they used to be. I think they're probably still a good team but they seem to have a limited ceiling.
5a. Detroit Pistons (23-21) - This is a frustrating team to root for. I think they're doing better than I expected but the way they lose some of these games is really embarrassing sometimes (both Memphis games were complete fiascos, so was the Clippers game, they also lost to the Nets and Lakers). Their ceiling of play is really high. They just blew out the Warriors, although some of the might have been to do with Ben Wallace's jersey retirement (god I loved those teams). What is frustrating is that they easily could be the second seed comfortably but their offense is inconsistent and the effort isn't always there. They followed up beating the Warriors with losses to Chicago, New Orleans, and Denver, and it seems like they never get the momentum they need to differentiate themselves from anyone else in the east. SVG has really shaped the team in the way that he wants, though, and I think the future is bright. Drummond has made some really marked improvements and is averaging a pretty ridiculous 15.5 rebounds. His offense hasn't developed very much and his free throws are atrocious, but he is huge, gets every rebound, and makes it impossible to play small ball against the Pistons. Reggie Jackson has built on last year and is fucking deadly in the pick and roll now. He's not a great shooter, but if he ever gets there, he will be unguardable. KCP is great on defense but is uneven on offense. I think Stanley Johnson could be really good but probably won't be this year. The bench was fucking terrible early in the year but Baynes is shaping up and Jennings is back so hopefully Steve Blake will never play again. The team really needs Jodie Meeks back too. There may be some utility in getting Markieff Morris over to join his brother and be the long term 4, but I'm not exactly sure what Phoenix wants to do with him.
5b. Boston Celtics (23-21) - Boston's an interesting case because they have the point differential of a team that's much better than their record but they're still really uneven. A lot of that has been them overwhelming some really crappy teams like Brooklyn so they have some major blowouts wins, but otherwise they'er a bit of an above average team that really struggles against with teams that it seems like they shouldn't. Thomas is a great scorer and is one of the best guards in the east, and Jae Crowder was a really good steal for a pissy Rondo. Otherwise, most of the players have remained about on the same level as last year or have made just slight incremental improvements, which yields a slightly above average team. The big rotation is weird since they're all useful but don't fit together well. I'm not sure what I would do with this team for the future. They have a potentially great Nets pick and if that turns out to be Ben Simmons then a lot of these guys are perfect utility players around a potential superstar. They could also use that pick to trade for someone bigger (Cousins, Whiteside?), but the Boston players themselves don't have a ton of trade value since no one outside of Thomas is great so I'm not sure what that package would be.
5c. Miami Heat (23-21) - Chris Bosh was always underappreciated while LeBron was around and now that it's his team again, he's clearly still in Raptors-Bosh form but he's a much better defender and shoots 3s. Wade has also bounced back after last year and is playing back to backs. However, Dragic doesn't fit because the Heat play so slowly. The team seems to hate Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside is weird because he gets a ton of numbers but the team is actually better without him defensively. People on the team say he's not "a Heat guy." The team doesn't have any good shooters other than Tyler Johnson, which is a big problem. There are spacing issues here and that's clogged up the offense to have several nonshooters out in this era. Winslow has gotten some praise for his defense which is really good but his offensive game is really bad right now. People pegged him as having superstar potential, but he's weirdly undersized and isn't a great shooter. That can change, but the Heat are in actually in good position to make a really big move if they were willing to trade Dragic, Whiteside, and Winslow. I'm not exactly sure who fits the bill, but there are clear paths to improvement here if they wanted to seriously contend now.
5d. Indiana Pacers (23-21) - I didn't think this would work, but they jettisoned all their bigs and still are a great defense. A lot of that is on Vogel, who is a really good coach, but a lot of it is that Paul George is back in full force. He's slowed down a bit but his offensive game, particularly his shooting, is at a really high level, and his defense is also as good as ever. The real surprise is Ian Mahinmi, who is probably a top 3 defensive center now. He was really mediocre the last few years but has shined given the chance. Otherwise, the team is filled with averagish players who were castoffs on other teams that are contributing to a pretty interesting system. It doesn't all fit together perfectly and I don't think Monta Ellis has been good for their offense overall but a Paul George centered offense has at least worked so far. Like all other east teams, they're really inconsistent, though.
9. Washington Wizards (20-21) - The Wizards started off like crap and have improved because Wall's play picked up, but people thought they would be able to sustain their playoff run from last season. That hasn't really happened. Beal has been injured and might be on a minutes restriction forever. Otto Porter has taken a step forward and is now average instead of terrible. Wall is great again but them coming into form has resulted in an average team and that apparently isn't good enough in the east now. I don't really know why Kevin Durant would want to come here. Beal would have to be completely healthy and progressing into someone like Ray Allen for that to be appealing. They could make the playoffs but they are weirdly uninteresting to watch for a team with John Wall and a lot of that is on their crappy coach.
10. New York Knicks (22-24) - PORZINGIS. I didn't think this dude would be as good as he is, but he's the Knicks' new hope, and it's actually good for the league when the Knicks aren't a horrible joke. Porzingis is really skilled, but not in any way that is comparable to any European player. He's a good shooter, a strong rebounder, and is a presence at the rim which is surprising due to his skinnyass frame. He's slowed down a bit but has shown all star potential already. The other pickups from the offseason (Afflalo, Lopez) were solid because they were average players instead of the weird dregs that the Knicks were throwing out at the end of last season (they already have more wins at the half now than they did all last year). Carmelo is also back in form, but I don't know when the Knicks think about trading him. He's not winning there and he has some trade value for some teams, but to some extent he may be okay with not winning since he clearly was mostly concerned about getting a big contract in a big market. They're still pretty flawed and likely won't make the playoffs, but they're at least not a disaster to watch when they inevitably get national TV games.
11. Charlotte Hornets (21-23) - These guys have been losing a lot lately because the recent schedule has been brutal, but they had a really interesting start of the year. Jefferson has barely played and they just launched a bunch of 3s and won . Batum in particular is playing well, but I get a weird feeling he's going to bail and become a Spur somehow. Otherwise, the Hornets have several decent to good players and has made good moves in getting production from retreads from other teams (Jeremy Lin, Jeremy Lamb, Marvin Williams) which makes you think that the front office is smarter than it gets credit for. I think Clifford is a really good coach, so locking him up long term was a good move. Unsure about Kaminsky, though. I would have taken those picks from Boston, though. Justise probably wouldn't have been a good fit. Winslow, Jefferson, and MKG would make for a crappy shooting core, and it looks like Clifford is going somewhere more modern.
12. Orlando Magic (20-22) - This is another bunch of young guys who are all around average, but I think I like the core of players here more than Boston because they are younger and some of them are already as productive. Oladipo, Payton, Hezonja, and Gordon haven't even scratched the surface of their potential. Skiles is getting them to play good defense, which is impressive given how young they are. Like a Skiles team, though, the offense is really isolation based and slow paced, which isn't necessarily a great fit given how athletic the entire team is. Payton and Oladipo also don't play well together, and Oladipo has been better off the bench. I don't know if that means they just won't ever play well together (a lot will be alleviated if Payton's shot ever improves), but that's something to watch for them. They should probably just stay the course and see if they can make the playoffs. It'd be good for them to make it even if they get swept by the Cavs.
13. Milwaukee Bucks (19-27) - I thought Greg Monroe would really help this team out, and while he's had a really strong individual year, his defense is extremely poor, and having a bad defensive center is worse for your team in a relative sense because most centers are pretty strong defenders. It doesn't help that Jabari Parker is also pretty at defense, so the swarming defense from last year isn't there right now. Giannis is getting better every year but hasn't taken a huge leap like you might want, and Michael Carter Williams still might not be the point guard of the future because he can't shoot and that sinks the entire offense. The team is young and has room for improvement, but you kind of have to think that they'd be better off if they didn't do the Knight trade.
14. Brooklyn Nets (11-33) - This team is really depressing and now they don't have a long term coach or GM. They have no first round picks for another three years. They have no players worth building around. Rondae Hollis Jefferson is injured. Joe Johnson makes $25 mil and looks like he can barely walk. Jarrett Jack is injured. They have Andrea Bargnani. The future is bleak. There is no God.
15. Philadelphia 76ers (6-38) - This is a team as bad as the Warriors are good. However, the league stepped in and essentially removed Mr. Trust the Process. They picked up a semi-real point guard in Ish Smith and are quite improved with him, and it's especially apparent with Jahlil Okafor. The main negatives are that this collection of players doesn't necessarily have a future with the team other than Okafor and maybe Nerlens, so it doesn't seem like they're really building any kind of continuity together. The plus side is that they are bringing in some vets like Elton Brand to at least teach these guys how to play and hopefully to keep them out of trouble. They could get the Lakers pick and their own, which could set them up pretty well. I think the fact that the league had to step in means that they won't at least be so open with their tanking in the future.
