Author Topic: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one  (Read 67085 times)

Dhyerwolf

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #25 on: February 17, 2016, 09:21:26 PM »
Not sure if you meant in Kentucky specifically or in general, but I'm going to talk about Kentucky.  If there were a horde of secret hard-left Kentuckians who would have rallied behind a True Leftist and felt that Conway was too centrist, where the heck have they been?!  When have they ever showed up?  You'd think that there'd at least be, you know, Green Party mayors in Kentucky's big cities or something.  Or maybe an activist movement.  As is, if they exist, they've left Kentucky with a disaster (from a liberal perspective) in Bevin, possibly a Kentucky version of Rick Snyder.  If Kentucky was winnable this whole time for proper leftists but they just weren't inspired properly by hope to vote than I'm really annoyed at them.

Alternatively, the easier explanation is that Kentucky *really is* deeply conservative territory, and the Dems had to choose their method of execution: insincerely run to the right and be rightly suspected as not really being conservative, or run loud & proud liberal and lose a fair fight.  It's tough, but the answer is probably "a mix of both" and hope for long-term changes in the Dem's favor.  In other words, they lost because they were basically fated to lose short of a really horrific Republican nominee for governor, since it reflects the authentic slant of the Kentucky electorate.  Yes, it's incredibly frustrating that this means yes, people who liked Kynect ALSO voted Republican, bizarre as it sounds, but voters aren't consistent, and those who are may have priorities that don't reflect others.  Alas.

While Kentucky goes red nationally, 2 of the last 3 Governors before this year were Democrats, so it's definitely not just Kentucky running to the right. I'm not sure what to expect in this particular instance with Kentucky, but it seems like a lot of Democrats or Democrats leaners just sat out completely. The turn out was 31%, and low turnout heavily favors Republicans. What we do know is that running to the right doesn't work for Democrats very well. Some may have been voting against their best interest, but I believe a lot of them didn't even know that ACA and Kynect were the same thing (because Democrats didn't just say it). Just running on that one leftward aspect could have made a dent.
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jsh357

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #26 on: February 17, 2016, 09:26:57 PM »
Right, so I'm understanding that. I suppose my point, or where I'm directing questioning, is that "Independent in name only" erases the role that law plays in circumscribing "Independent in practice." I just googled Georgia and saw that their 2016 primary is open, but they most certainly have not always been that way. 13 states consistently have closed primaries; when people want to have a 1-person vote count locally, they're barred from it if they are Independent. Or, they vote democrat or republican for candidate nominations.

I can confirm in Georgia I had to register with a party to vote in primaries. It was frustrating to me at the time. Not sure if it's totally open now, but it is here in south Carolina.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #27 on: February 17, 2016, 09:46:27 PM »
Consider the following: In 2014 in Mississippi, Thad Cochran, incumbent Republican senator, explicitly encourages black Democrats to vote for him in his primary in order to fend off a tea party challenger.  It works, and Cochran easily wins reelection.  Now consider this: black Democratic voters in Georgia would like to elect some black politicians, and white voters who have no intention of voting for Democrats in the general election vote in the Democratic primary in order to keep black politicians off the ballot.

Are these the outcomes that we want?  That are the most small-"D" democratic?
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jsh357

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #28 on: February 17, 2016, 11:47:48 PM »
That example perfectly illustrates what I saw as the hole in the system at the time. I registered "Republican" just so my vote would actually make a difference in my county, even though I certainly didn't fit the mold of the party. My votes didn't represent my beliefs, but an attempt to play the system. And in the upcoming primary, the only reason I'm even voting is to try and stuff the votes against the candidates I don't want in office, so in a sense it's the same thing. This whole system seems woefully out of date in the digital age to me.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #29 on: February 18, 2016, 03:22:35 AM »
Right. 2015 was the first year that I didn't vote in Georgia. There were some serious pending fund allocations in Austin that I wanted to share part in. I remember that, before then, the real power for nominating was closed off. Jim brings up an interesting problem of placing votes. I've also found that voting in primaries is also riddled with logistical issues that leave me with nothing but sympathy for elderly and those who cannot easily pen in voting on their calender. I remember being frustrated and justifiably offended that: I show up to the poll registered as a democrat with my registration card, GA driver's license that I did not need to forfeit, and my UT ID. According to the poll worker, they would not accept this form of ID. They would only take a passport (random info after a 45 minute wait in line). I surprised myself by remembering that I carried an inactive one, because it is the quintessential form of ID that US citizens can use everywhere and voted. For me to have so many papers on hand is unusual. I am less concerned about the pathology of voting, even though it is important to discuss. With a heavy heart, I am disturbed by the gutting and circumscribing of the ability to vote with comfort and ease. I wish I could see this dialogue maintain its momentum, since folk around me seem to understand voting as important only in electing the president.

jsh357

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #30 on: February 20, 2016, 04:15:55 PM »
Well, lol, as it turns out, in south Carolina you aren't required to register in a party, but you are only allowed to vote in one primary.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #31 on: March 02, 2016, 03:44:08 PM »
As far as Bernie vs. Hillary goes,
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/5/10923304/bernie-sanders-general-election

I want a democrat to win the presidency. Neither will get major policy victories through congress, so I'd prefer the candidate have no illusions about how the process will go (grinding battle with Republicans, using every available political instrument). Most of the reporting I have read indicates that Hillary Clinton will stand a much better chance in the general election than Bernie Sanders.

To be fair, that's not what the polling shows:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

The polling shows "who would you vote for in a general election"--Clinton loses to most of the Republicans, and Sanders beats most of the republicans.  (Many of these same polls had Clinton leading Sanders in the primary race--so it's not like these polls were biased towards Sanders.  Just that he seems to match up much better against most of the republican opponents).

We can speculate all day as to why he matches up better, but at the moment this is what the statistics show.


As for what these political scientists have to say about "people feel loss more intensely than gain"--I mean, sure, that's a psychological concept I'm familiar with in game design.  But it also doesn't match up with most election results I've seen in the US.  We've seen americans vote for ballot initiatives to take away abortion rights, make gay marriage illegal in places where it was legal, vote overwhelmingly for presidents who campaign for "change" (both Obama and George W Bush), deliberately vote out anyone they see as a "washington insider" (especially on the right with the tea party movement, but there's anti-establishment sentiment growing on the left too).  Hell, Obamacare--I benefit from Obamacare, because the preexisting condition thing used to bite me.  And we've had Obamacare for years now.  The right wing seems to rally the base most by calling to repeal Obamacare.  The left seems to have lukewarm approval of Obamacare, and is open to other ideas.  The electorate right now doesn't seem to be in the mood of "Nah, don't change things.  The status quo is fine."

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #32 on: March 03, 2016, 01:39:36 AM »
The fact that those polls suggest that Kasich would beat Clinton by 7% shows exactly how seriously you should take them. In general any claim that a further-from-centre candidate should be favoured in a general election is something you should regard with extreme skepticism. In this particular case, one explanation is that the Republican media really hasn't done any attacking of Sanders yet, to my knowledge, since they don't think he's going to be their opponent in the general election. If it starts to look like he will be, that'll change. (There may be a similar effect for Kasich.)

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Dhyerwolf

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2016, 02:20:35 AM »
In fairness, while Republicans haven't been attacking Bernie, Hillary's team has been going at him for the last 1.5 months pretty hard.

And there's a reason that polls consistently show Bernie outperforming Hillary against Republicans: Hillary's popularity is pretty bad overall and it seems like a she has a high percentage of voters that don't feel heavily inspired by her. I honestly think that she would have trouble against Trump since he can capitalize on all her weaknesses (self funding vs constant appearance of corruption, a Republican who can still manage to attack her from the LEFT on Iraq/Syria/Libya, insurgent candidate in a broken political system vs. "inevitable" dynasty candidate, unpredictable debater versus someone is a bit poor at speaking off the cuff). I fear that the people Hillary will motivate to vote will be the opposition (because I don't think she'll have a lot of luck with young or very progressive voters on the whole). She's already drifting to the right on issues as well (Oil extraction on public lands in the last 2 days for example).

I feel like Hillary could be a prime example for the old motto about Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (I really hope that I would be wrong, but there's so much ammo to use against her). I really, really, really hope that the FBI investigations are just witchhunts; I think the email one is, but there's definitely some blurred lines in the Clinton Foundation investigation that could turn into something real.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2016, 02:24:09 AM by Dhyerwolf »
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Cmdr_King

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #34 on: March 03, 2016, 02:25:04 AM »
Sorta a moot point now, Clinton would have to be arrested to not win the nomination at this point.  But what the hell.

Been musing more on Sanders as a thing.  To a certain extent, he's benefiting from general anti-establishment sentiment, and spent most of his time in the senate as a nominal Independent (basically, he isn't technically a democrat but he backs them up on major party votes and they include him for consideration on committee seats.)  But he's less anti-establishment and more has a mild contrarian streak; he's very much a politician and has been in the game a long time, just not often in the national spotlight.  Now that votes are in, we can say with confidence what some noticed from the start, that it comes down to demographics.

That is, the Democratic Party, if you wanted roughly-equal sized factions, could be broken down thusly:
1) White Conservatives- basically the more centrist holdouts from the pre-Nixon Democratic party OR refugee Republicans from the post-Reagan GOP.  Center-Right-to-Center overall.
2) White Liberals- Center-left-to-left, the sort of folks who envy European style socialist states. 
3) People of Color- Blacks in particular, but Asian and Hispanic democrats  tend to vote more similarly to them than the other two (they also tend to be less overwhelmingly Democratic because... well, the GOP didn't abandon them to the wolves in the late '60s.)  Run the full Center-right-to-left Democratic zone, but thanks to The Goddamned Patriarchy have a distinct set of priorities from the other two groups.

And in simplest terms Bernie overwhelmingly wins 2, gets some token votes from 1, and utterly whiffs in 3.  This seems mostly to be a particular strength of Hillary Clinton's; her political image is very no-nonsense, let's-get-shit-done.  She's someone who can plausibly get her hands dirty and knock sense into people, also the sort of image black community leaders project.  That they also tend strongly to be women doesn't hurt.

But we're more interested in why Bernie does so well with the white liberals.  And sure, he's a much better ideological fit there than Clinton, but the devotion and "REVOLUTION" aspect of it feel off, even allowing that hey, some of these are kids that weren't voting age in 2008 and want a movement too. 

So my best guess is actually pretty straightforward-
He's the first candidate that our White Liberals group has had within our (that is, typical DLer age, ~30-35) political lives, and possibly lifetimes.
Bill Clinton's particular Democratic style has been the basic for the ideologies of every major candidate since (his VP Al Gore, Hillary Clinton who doubtless was right there formulating the brand, and Barack Obama draws no small portion of his personal ideology from that school, and has governed even more heavily in Clinton's style).  Being all of 10 when Bill Clinton took office I couldn't even tell you what his primary competitors were like, or earlier folks like Dukakis, but even if they were quite liberal, that gives us a nearly 25 year run of fairly conservative Democrats, and that's before remembering both Clinton and Obama faced extremely hostile congresses which pushed their successful legislation even further right than where it started.
While the liberals remain part of the Democratic coalition, there hasn't been much to hang their hats on.  Basically the only major success in the Obama presidency from the progressive perspective was Obergefell vs Hodges.  None of the more liberal Democrats have been party leaders in that time, so the more progressive end of the party hasn't even had their voice in the conversation in a meaningful way in a very long time.  So Bernie Sanders basically represents the first time in 20-odd years that voting for Democrats has been meaningful for anything besides "beat the other guys" and "try to fix the unholy mess Reagan made of the Supreme Court" (which yes, is important and is a good reason to not protest vote.  But holy shit it's disheartening.)  So yeah, it's not surprising that people are getting way too into it and are downright eager to take down Clinton just as much as [whoever the Republican is].

That said there is a lot of work to do now because that bracket now has a 90% chance of reading "Donald Trump".  And no, I don't care how corrupt you think the Clintons are or how much wall street bribe money they take, DONALD IS BASICALLY A FASCIST TRUMP.

And let's face it liberals, this is the US, the numbers are in, liberals only make up about 15-20% of the population.  It's depressing as hell to not even be in the conversation, but we were never going to get THAT much even if we were.
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Dhyerwolf

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #35 on: March 03, 2016, 03:38:46 AM »
Sorta a moot point now, Clinton would have to be arrested to not win the nomination at this point.  But what the hell.

I'm worried about something coming down after she gets the nomination (I always wanted Sanders, but I always expected Hillary).

I would say that Bernie is getting traction with young voters not because of race, but because of message. Obama captured the same voting group for the most part, but didn't pass the legislation that would drive them to keep voting (Obama governed like a Clinton, but he definitely didn't run like one). I think most people our age tend to realize that our system is completely broken and don't have as much at stake in keeping a broken system alive; it has less to do with the candidate's race (or any other demographic in that sense). I also wouldn't just put it down to age because older uber-progressives love Bernie (just people tend to drift away from uber progressivism as they get older). I personally know several dozen older progressives (70-80 age range) who are on fire for Bernie Sanders. Granted, he's also helped with the youth because we don't really care about red-scares (and all the older progressives I know would probably call themselves socialists anyways).

I'm still voting for whoever the Democrat is in November, but liberals tend to vote on hope and conservatives tend to vote on fear. Hillary is running a fear-based campaign now and will likely ramp that up in the general as she moves right. She'll get some liberals out of obligation, but a lot will stay home after she's been telling us that we have to pre-negotiate on everything. I think that Bernie would get almost all of the Hillary voters, but I think Hillary will lose a decent chunk of Bernie voters.
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Cmdr_King

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #36 on: March 03, 2016, 05:09:17 AM »
Oh, sure, Bernie is getting people on ideological grounds.  But where he's failing in the black community isn't because they don't like his politics, but because of cultural differences.  Working behind the scenes of a broken system to get shit done is a way of life in a marginalized community, and someone with Hillary's image projects being able to do just that.
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #37 on: March 03, 2016, 05:23:41 AM »
In fairness, while Republicans haven't been attacking Bernie, Hillary's team has been going at him for the last 1.5 months pretty hard.

No offense but if you think this is the case you are seriously naive as to what you think the GOP would throw at him during the general election. You need only to tune into the debates and look at the tone difference and messages being thrown around between the respective parties to see the difference.
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Dhyerwolf

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #38 on: March 03, 2016, 06:42:48 AM »
Oh, I'm well aware that the attacks would come in nastier varities, but the same will hold true for Hillary Clinton (and I believe Bernie would be more competent in attacking Trump than Hillary or the rest of the field would be). That said, Hillary during a debate is very different than Hillary out of debates. "A special place in hell," Gloria Steinem, false stories about Bernie supporters chanting "English Only", implications that Bernie will take away all the healthcare, red-baiting...etc. Hillary plays a little bit nicer during the debates, but there have been plenty of underhanded attacks coming from close Clinton surrogates and Clinton herself. The Republicans would just try and make up more outlandish things.

New headline on Wapo: "Justice Dept. grants immunity to staffer who set up Clinton email server." Fuck. I can't imagine that immunity offers are generally needed unless something is in the works. I really wish that global warning wasn't going to be hideous catastrophe; then I could care a lot less about who wins this.
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metroid composite

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #39 on: March 03, 2016, 04:05:01 PM »
Sorta a moot point now, Clinton would have to be arrested to not win the nomination at this point.  But what the hell.

Not exactly.  Clinton won big on Super Tuesday, but she was expected to.  (Mostly southern very conservative states--these are her stronghold in the primary).  Bernie actually picked up more states than were expected by wider margins than expected.  And now most of the upcoming states are locations where Bernie is expected to be strong (northern and swing states).

Quote
But where he's failing in the black community isn't because they don't like his politics, but because of cultural differences.  Working behind the scenes of a broken system to get shit done is a way of life in a marginalized community, and someone with Hillary's image projects being able to do just that.

I mean...I'm not black, not even American, and really don't feel comfortable ascribing emotions to said group.  What I've seen of Hillary's record on African American issues is kind-of mixed, though.  Like...yeah, she has a fairly good rating from the NAACP for her voting record in the senate, but on the other hand I've also read....

http://www.thenation.com/article/hillary-clinton-does-not-deserve-black-peoples-votes/

http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/06/24/417112956/hillary-clintons-three-word-gaffe-all-lives-matter

Though...none of this really matters in the end--whether or not she should get the African American vote, she is getting the African American vote.  And, sure, yeah, if it comes to a general election she's still obviously better than a dude who keeps a book of Adolf Hitler speeches by his bed. Yes, really.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #40 on: March 03, 2016, 07:25:44 PM »
I was looking at this:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/south-carolinas-black-democrats-are-powerful-but-what-do-they-want/

And had a bit of a lightbulb.  Backed up by this:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2016/03/you-asked-us-why-do-black-voters-support-hillary-clinton

Certainly I could be generalizing too much from just one or two articles but it makes a lot of sense to me.

The trouble Bernie has, and why he's toast, is the margins: Hillary is blowing him out in most of her victories, while he can claim the same only in Vermont and New Hampshire, which just aren't as large (and thus valuable) of states as, say, Texas or Georgia.  The primaries aren't winner take all, they're proportionate, so his just edging her out in Colorado means he gets one extra delegate basically.  Most of his future victories will be similar because the states most friendly to him have already voted.  Even the most pro-Sanders delegate count right now has Clinton up roughly 600 to 400, and Sanders doesn't have any areas where he can run up the score and catch up now.
He's certainly not mathematically eliminated, but in practice it's over.
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #41 on: March 03, 2016, 07:51:30 PM »
Oh, sure, Bernie is getting people on ideological grounds.  But where he's failing in the black community isn't because they don't like his politics, but because of cultural differences.  Working behind the scenes of a broken system to get shit done is a way of life in a marginalized community, and someone with Hillary's image projects being able to do just that.

I don't believe that. In general, they don't know him and are familiar with the Clinton brand. What he DID do in the South, no one recognized him.

I voted for Bernie in Austin out of ideals and against the principle of oligarchies. I will suck it up and vote for Hillary only if she is against Trump.


edit* also wary of monolithic group vote stats, yes half or a little under  Blacks live in the South, but they have their own generational, educational and religious differences as the others in urban centers across the US
« Last Edit: March 03, 2016, 07:54:32 PM by bambi »

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #42 on: March 05, 2016, 03:57:58 AM »
On the topic of Bernie Sanders's lack of popularity with Black voters compared to HRC:

https://np.reddit.com/r/OutOfTheLoop/comments/48kyzj/why_are_black_americans_voting_for_hillary/d0kv5pf?context=3

Warning: Reddit, so don't bother reading anything but the linked post. I found this to be a fairly enlightening perspective, though obviously I can't speak to the veracity of it personally.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #43 on: March 05, 2016, 02:21:03 PM »
sigh

edit- respond later to that response still using black as a monolithic slave descended african american group, when the majority of the us black population increase comes from black diaspora immigration; and re no answer will suffice regardless of one's presumed ability to speak on behalf of a racial group or not; re going out on a ledge but black liberation as a baptist and methodist ideology is not conservative readings of the bible at all re fuck it said enough, i get crazy annoyed with the stupid binary world we keep carrying in discourses. dunie tapping out.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2016, 02:30:28 PM by bambi »

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #44 on: March 05, 2016, 09:20:59 PM »
Apologies.  I can't find any numbers now because of course I can't, I wanted to, but there it's easy to look at some of Hillary's numbers in the Super Tuesday's primaries along demographics and speak as though it represents all of a demographic rather than a majority for simplicity.  All the non-southern states that have voted have also been overwhelmingly white so we won't know how more urban black vote until... I think Michigan, this Tuesday.

Binary... is sorta a byproduct of how americans organized their political system.  Actually though I've been pondering that.  I'll give that another post though.
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #45 on: March 06, 2016, 12:26:08 AM »
Honestly, the reports I was hearing about the southern states was mostly extreme apathy from the voters, mostly very low voter turnout.  There have been reports that a lot of voters don't know who Bernie Sanders is, or if they do, they might have only heard about him through Cable television (which has been very negative towards him) as opposed to the internet (which tends to report positively about him).  Also worth noting that southern states have the lowest percentage of the population with internet access.

Yet more reasons why I don't like asserting motivations for an entire racial group based on non-policy factors.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #46 on: March 06, 2016, 02:34:26 AM »
That also seems to imply basically "the only reason anyone could vote Clinton over Sanders is not knowing his platform" which I find suspect as well.  I'm more looking at "Clinton does particularly well in some demographics, which of her advantages might be influencing that."  I just don't think name recognition is the sole advantage.

(Mind I also find Clinton a very poorcandidate as well so I'm approaching the question as an outsider.)
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #47 on: March 06, 2016, 02:42:07 AM »
I think you can call internet users a demographic...
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #48 on: March 07, 2016, 11:59:26 PM »
I think you can call internet users a demographic...

I mean, yeah, you could, but it would be the largest demographic in the United States.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #49 on: March 08, 2016, 01:21:26 AM »
Honestly, the reports I was hearing about the southern states was mostly extreme apathy from the voters, mostly very low voter turnout.  There have been reports that a lot of voters don't know who Bernie Sanders is, or if they do, they might have only heard about him through Cable television (which has been very negative towards him) as opposed to the internet (which tends to report positively about him).  Also worth noting that southern states have the lowest percentage of the population with internet access.

Yet more reasons why I don't like asserting motivations for an entire racial group based on non-policy factors.

This is numerically accurate. All the states that Hillary did really well in had really bad voter turn out compared to past primaries (Texas and South Carolina saw under half the primary voters that they did in 2008. Alabama had the best comparative turnout of the group because it was only down 26%). States that are somewhat even or states where Sanders did really well range from down a little to up a little (Maine was probably a historic turnout, but caucus make it hard to tell). That said, primary turnout doesn't necessarily have implications on general as an aggregate, but the pattern so far could be worrisome come the general.
...into the nightfall.