Author Topic: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one  (Read 66829 times)

SnowFire

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #675 on: February 24, 2017, 08:01:38 PM »
I cannot see a feasible defense for this bill. Like, at all.

Of course there's a feasible defense.  Let's start with the fact: academics swing left, and in the past 20 years, have swung much harder left than they used to.  And in the past 1 year have also been hugely anti-Trump, i.e. even the bastions of academic conservatism like economics professors and engineering professors have swung hard against him.

There are, roughly speaking, three potential reasons for this:
A) Smart people who've taken a more careful analysis of the issues than most disproportionately swing left.  (Stephen Colbert: "Reality has a well-known liberal bias.")
B) Smart people are evenly split down the middle or favor conservatives, but academia is a weird magnet for the lefties for strange or unknown reasons.  Maybe liberals really love college bureaucracy and structure.
C) Smart people are evenly split down the middle or favor conservatives, but college professors are liberal bigots who hate conservatives, so they only hire fellow liberals as part of some anti-American litmus test.

Liberals are happy to claim A, but many conservatives quail from this, and perhaps for good reason.  (Better to believe that education pushing people left is not true than to think it is true, and thus believe that education is evil and corrupting and best avoided.)  That leaves B and C.  In the case of B, then that sounds like a problem government can and should correct!  Big government when it favors us, woo.  And in the case of C, hey, it's the liberals who fired the first shot, you don't get to complain about discrimination when you started it by discriminating against us.  That'd be like people in an industry that was 98% male complaining about incentives for hiring females if that threatened to upset the "natural" 98% of the workforce being male thing, without realizing that the current situation was artificial to begin with.

It might be "obvious" to all of us that the answer is A, but it's easy enough to see the logic from the other side...  people believe what flatters their own position, like liberals calling every hurricane proof of climate change, and conservatives any snowy day as proof that global warming is a hoax.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #676 on: February 24, 2017, 09:29:08 PM »
Snowfire: Even were reason C true, which I'm not saying it is or isn't, but if Reason C were true, then shouldn't the reasonable reaction be to follow through on the fact that discrimination is part of the hiring process? Because I don't think people should discriminate in any direction, personally. Like, if Person A is supposed to hire professors for College A, and they are asking questions that pertain more to political affiliation than to the job they are interviewing for, then that is discrimination and should 100% be followed up on so that Person A no longer has a job in power and authority. However, if Person A is simply asking regular, neutral questions that have nothing to do with anything but the job at hand, and this happens to involve hiring more of a certain political party, then that is still natural.

Also, about people complaining about incentives for creating a diverse workforce, unless the incentive is flawed to begin with, then complaints are going to roll in no matter what you do because it's impossible to please everybody.

Ideally, we should be striving for a world where nobody who discriminates (for any reason) should be in a position to do things like hire for a company or institution. And at the same time, that means we should be free to create incentives, as necessary, to help encourage a more diverse workforce without it leading to further discrimination. To take your 98% male workforce example: If 98% of the workforce is male, and this is a natural situation, then even with a proper incentive to hire more females, the employer will only hire females if they are a good fit for the job, not just because they're female. This would lead to a situation, however, where if the employer has multiple potential hires of roughly equal potential for the company, they will be slightly more weighted toward hiring the female one(s). And this is good, because a workforce dominated by a single gender to that degree is just plain awkward for everybody involved, and eventually this will lead to an equal split, which will result in happier employees because now everybody feels more comfortable and represented. Now, if the workforce is an artificial 98%, then even with a proper incentive, the employer will still only hire males aside from the "token female," because it was artificial for a reason.

Also, in all honesty, I am going to say that I am okay with utilizing greed and other such motivators to motivate people who otherwise don't care about things like this to create a more diverse, welcoming society. For some people, that's just what it takes to get them to pitch in, and that's fine. More people creating a better society is better, regardless of the motivations, IMO.

SnowFire

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #677 on: February 24, 2017, 10:22:25 PM »
Well that's the core question of affirmative action, no?  That sometimes it's okay to discriminate to correct a huge imbalance.  Fair enough that you might disagree with it in general, though. And I do agree that in the long run, businesses being rational will iron out these imbalances...  eventually...  it's just potentially slow.  (Faster in industries that live and die fast, slower in ones that don't.)   (And of course it's massively hypocritical in that many Republicans also are against affirmative action for, say, blacks, but are for oppressed conservative - see Jim.  I'm slightly joking by taking the affirmative action argument seriously here but applying it for conservatives.)  That said, this isn't a "neutral" matter like whether the dudes hired for the construction project are white, black, or terrorist refugees.  Education is pretty darn important.  Imagine if...  and yes this is ludicrous...  if for some strange reason, Mormons consisted ~95% of your local teachers, despite being a minority in general.  And furthermore, these aren't quiet Mormons; no, they're aggressive, evangelistic Mormons, who won't shut up about Joseph Smith and his golden plates in classes, and let their Mormonism color their entire teaching.  In a situation like this, taking a stand to reduce the Mormon percentage of teachers starts to seem reasonable, no?  That it's free indoctrination of schoolkids for a minority?  Well to some conservatives, the situation in academia feels identical.  Liberal professors have their whole teachings colored by their liberalism and won't shut up about how America is evil and whites are racist, and they're like 95% of the academy, and they're not shy about spreading their faux-"religion" to their kids.  It's just as bizarre and frustrating a state of affairs for them as the all-Mormon school system would be for non-Mormons.

Lest this sound like assuming too much about the "other side", I point you to the box office numbers of these surprise low budget Christian hit films:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God%27s_Not_Dead_(film)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God%27s_Not_Dead_2

I suppose I should stress again that it is a feasible and wrong defense, but it's wrong because the premises are invalid, not because it's logically invalid. i.e. if alien slugs were going to invade in 2018, then the government building salt guns would be entirely rational, but they're not, so the salt guns are a waste.   But for people who really really passionately believed in the alien slug threat, it's madness to act casual and not take action. 

(Although, to be sure, I wouldn't be surprised if *some* departments really did recoil violently against any potential conservative profs and be reluctant to hire them, aka the option C that some conservatives fear...  Woman's Studies and various Ethnic Studies departments come to mind.  But I have to assume that very few conservatives even major in them, since they're inherently colored by leftist politics a bit.)
« Last Edit: February 24, 2017, 10:41:36 PM by SnowFire »

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #678 on: February 25, 2017, 12:22:08 AM »
Y'know...  there's points of view other than yours and 'racist'.

Oh. Please. Do explain. In detail. I'm bored and want to eviscerate someone's arguments.


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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #680 on: February 25, 2017, 07:39:57 AM »
Well that's the core question of affirmative action, no?  That sometimes it's okay to discriminate to correct a huge imbalance.

Snowfire's basically hit on the point I would want to hit on.  There are arguments, and they're generally used more by those on the liberal side of the equation, that discrimination is totally fine so long as it's being used to correct a greater wrong, and that's it's being used in a fashion which is meant to be temporary and where you can measure the effectiveness of the measures taken in order to see that they either will be temporary, or that they're ultimately useless and can then be scrapped and replaced with something that will work.  And honestly, the only reason I can be ok with affirmative action policies is because of their dedication to using equality of outcome only as a means to transition to a proper equality of opportunity.

In this instance, I'm a firm believer in Snowfire's scenario B.  It seems patently obvious that the people who love education and academia just also tend towards a certain political bent as well.  That said, while I can understand the frustration in this, I certainly feel it at times as well, I don't really see any use or point in legislation like this because I don't think you can use the hammer of the law to create equality of opportunity here.  That that equality effectively already exists, it's just that the people you'd need to create 'balance' just aren't terribly interested in taking those opportunities.  At which point, *shrug* whut'cha'gunnado?

Shale

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #681 on: February 25, 2017, 01:30:27 PM »
In addition to any natural inclination of academics to be liberal, there's also the fact that American conservatism, at least, has developed an anti-academia bent that's going to alienate those people just because it's very rare to want to join a political party that hates you personally. See also why there are few Trump supporters in journalism.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2017, 01:35:10 PM by Shale »
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #682 on: February 25, 2017, 04:33:42 PM »
As someone who is actually in education, B is absolutely true. Consider a statement such as "We can all be successful in life, but to do so we will need the help and support of others." Poll people on how much they agree with this statement, and without question you would see liberals scoring it higher than conservatives. Yet, of course, independently of that, those who go into education would also tend to strongly agree with that statement (we believe in the desire of that supportive "other" so strongly that we choose to try to be that for hundreds of people as a living). That suggests a rather obvious correlation.

Actually I think all three of Snowfire's suggested reasons are true to some extent (although my personal experience leads me to agree with Excal that B is probably the strongest), and Shale's absolutely, 100% is as well.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #683 on: February 25, 2017, 05:07:54 PM »
You guys are forgetting the very real fact that the Republican party is in the midst of being co-opted by people who are openly calling for a White Ethno-state in the US. FFS Steve Bannon spoke OPENLY at CPAC the other day, and in the crowd MANY people, especially young college republicans, openly identified as White Nationalists.

So this normalizing and arguing that, "Oh, those poor little small government conservatives aren't willingly going into academia it's technically okaaaaaaaaaaaaaay" is all well and good in a vacuum but Dunie was right to cut through the disingenuous bullshit and jump straight to the conclusion: A bill like this means more White Nationalist professors spreading White Nationalist ideas and need I remind you that White Nationalist is PC for FUCKING GODDAMN RACIST. This bill isn't being proposed with a geniune care for rounding out academic discourse, it's being proposed to make it EASY FOR WHITE NATIONALISTS TO SPREAD THEIR IDEOLOGY DURING THE FORMATIVE YEARS WHERE HUMANS FORM THEIR WORLDVIEW.

For. FUCKS. SAKES. Any time any of you want to play devil's advocate about this shit, stop and recognize that you're arguing as if all this shit's going down a vacuum.  Read between the lines. Take things in context. You fucking Perpetual-Motion-Birds-Who-Keep-Drinking-Water.

Fun fact: Devil's Advocate is an Anagram for Useful Idiot.

...and if it took you too long to realize the former doesn't have a U in it I think my point has been made

EDIT:

Unrelated, but my town hall's facebook feed had an astroturfing campaign regarding House Resolution 30, some resolution to condemn a dog eating festival in China. All of the accounts had nothing but animal abuse shares and whatnot, so it was pretty obviously an organized astroturfing. Just be on the lookout for people talking about that so you can call them out on their shit.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2017, 08:19:29 PM by Cotigo »

Grefter

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #684 on: February 25, 2017, 11:35:14 PM »
I nearly waded in there to point out that not only is it a pointless smoke screen, but you know also racist as fuck.  That wasn't PETA protesting there, it was people using "LOLOLOL CHINESE EAT DOGS AND PUPPIES ARE GREAT" to completely derail conversation when these same people you can guarantee eat beef and lamb.
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #685 on: February 25, 2017, 11:49:56 PM »
I now feel compelled to clarify what I had thought was unwarranted. And I'm just laying it all out, with the first assertion that black folk can talk about more than race. So let me go back to my original post, which was in wholehearted agreement with Alex's description - yet I was the one addressed and slighted.

To continue.

Quote
"Yes + their use of "diversity" smuggles in a their desire to return to their structures of moralism  that's ultimately what they want. There's a grave misunderstanding of the idea of free speech. Plus I highly doubt a university with openly racist and openly liberal professors and workers would function in the longterm, especially for "business."

First sentence: structures of moralism. I have to unpack that. I mean preferential treatment to male employees, I mean Board of Regents and Presidents of unis who have more of a habit operating conservatively in states with red dominance that leads to "balance of opinions" rescinding LGBTQ "protections," I mean Muslim students having little psychological protection on campuses because Red Democrats of the University of Free Speech wants to imagine free speech as saying anything without repercussions, I mean student suicides understood unanimously as tied to increase in gun ownership but those people who would never save bystanders in the first place feel the most threatened and demand their corporeal space. That is not free speech. That is ensuring dominance. It means returning to the exclusivity of voice, because let's face it - most "liberal" colleges are few and far in between, beyond many paywalls, not relevant depending on your geographic mobility, and students (and their parents) at every single university, private, public, religious have the negotiating power in their idea of what free speech should be - not professors of any political background. They are the customers. Education is not what it was when it could only be for so few.

Second sentence: openly racist AND liberal professors. I suppose this is where the word "race" was mention and someone clutched their pearls. Okay. I'd love to hear about everyone's experiences at US educational institutions, because they are breeding grounds for so many profound emotions that don't just reach the so-called student population. Sifting faculty by a chosen and, arguably negligent, political affiliation misunderstands free speech at its very foundations. Has anyone taught student populations in US unis? Because you'd know that the students have the keys to your failure or success, especially if you're one of the many adjuncts saturating the market, and even if you broach the topic of "expanding our understanding by bringing in multiple viewpoints" (re: uh, duh, classroom makeups are changing dramatically in ways more than race) frightens students who are not used to forming critical opinions about anything other than their feelings. Why is it that LGBTQ/minority TAs and professors always receive the worse reviews, especially at institutions that are primarily white? Would anyone really feel comfortable spending a lot of time trying to look beyond systemic issues of racism, sexism that are uncontrollably regardless of your BA/MA/MS/PHD/lifeinloans education? If so, that's time I'm not willing to waste and I guess congrats on that beautiful spot you have with the in-crowd to not experience that stuff.

I don't care to speak about the case scenarios, but I don't mean to invalidate them. They are not a conversation I plan on investing energy into, clearly. But I am absolutely against any legislation that tries to give political affiliation the same weight of race, class, sex, gender. Sure it's relevant, but I'm shocked that Iowa unis (and more than likely other majority-white areas and unis) are thinking of even entering into the ether. A variety of opinions is already a given, but to assume that political affiliation is the legitimate balancer is an old boy's club game (to clarify: re, not you, the legislators). Public unis are grasping their purse strings for federal aid. Rarely would a professor, by themselves, expect to preach to students some trickle down liberal or conservative or radical or wtfever when they prefer to keep their jobs and colleagues' respects (aka, normally professors issue joint letters, not singular, and if they do they tend to step down and leave) and sanity. Can they argue for this? Sure, just like Abbey argued reverse racism at UT Austin where the black student population (because she seems to only view BLACK people as the only other contending race) is only 7-fucking-percent. The implementation of affirmative action is so uneven it's functionally unclear. If unis are trying to hold onto the funding that allows state legislators to keep cutting state support as tuition costs raise, then they are never going to view the hiring process as "we need a trump supporter," "we need an obama fan," and function in the long-run once students wake up to how much their wasting their money at this particular business.

MAN. Imagine if course catalog listings had: "Art 101, Julia Dunie, Black Woman, Democrat." I wouldn't have a job because courses wouldn't fill at most unis. I can only prove this by seeing how hard it is to fill "contemporary" (ALERT, POLITICS) by tenured well-published faculty in my own department. I can't take such legislation at face value. There's always underlying messages.


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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #687 on: February 28, 2017, 03:38:17 PM »
Not surprised, honestly - terrible interpretation and illustrates she clearly doesn't have the knowledge or skills for this job, but the way this has been going in the last 2 months, it's going to take a lot more to actually shock me anymore...

Comments on other stuff that's been said:

Zenny is right about a "bait and switch" - there was an article on Fox News that I can't find anymore, but it basically said "While the liberal media focuses on one story (the travel ban), President Trump distracts them so he can put the real important policies in place (around the time Bannon got on the national security council)".  It was flat out stated there, and that's worrying - there's so much shit going on, I do see something important getting veiled.

I don't know if I'd call every Trump voter a racist mother fucker (although a number I do think deserve that label).  I think there are some people, particularly in rural parts of the country (Appalachia, etc.) who heard "jobs" and believed him, and that's why they voted that way.  They are going to be terribly disappointed (he's not bringing back coal, at least in the level they're expecting), but that's what happened.

And...*looks at self and his colleagues* yeah, colleges to attract liberals.  There are definitely some conservatives, but they're left-leaning conservatives, and they were terribly disappointed with the election.

I've felt the need to apologize twice so far for our country to the international students we have.  Pretty fucking pathetic all things considered. 

I've given my rep and senators several calls - I understand they've been inundated, still.  Hopefully some reasonable Republicans (uh...whose left?  the 2 who opposed Devoss?) will come to light and really discuss things and work together bipartisanly (not going to happen, but I really hope - the partisanism is ridiculous on both sides). 

I am mortified of what happens with healthcare.
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #688 on: February 28, 2017, 04:25:44 PM »
I don't know if I'd call every Trump voter a racist mother fucker (although a number I do think deserve that label).  I think there are some people, particularly in rural parts of the country (Appalachia, etc.) who heard "jobs" and believed him, and that's why they voted that way.  They are going to be terribly disappointed (he's not bringing back coal, at least in the level they're expecting), but that's what happened.

When the best, most humane possible argument you can make for voting is "fuck you, got mine" it's pretty dire.
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Shale

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #689 on: February 28, 2017, 08:33:35 PM »
I don't know if I'd call every Trump voter a racist mother fucker (although a number I do think deserve that label).  I think there are some people, particularly in rural parts of the country (Appalachia, etc.) who heard "jobs" and believed him, and that's why they voted that way.  They are going to be terribly disappointed (he's not bringing back coal, at least in the level they're expecting), but that's what happened.

Even in that case, all but the most dirt-stupid had to know they were voting for a guy who would fuck minorities over and decided that it was a good trade for them. (In other words, "fuck you, got mine!") That's not sheet-on-head racist, but it's still racist.
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SnowFire

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #690 on: February 28, 2017, 11:00:52 PM »
Everybody here is underestimating just how catastrophically stupid voters can be.  This is vaguely heartening in that it means they might not be complete racist dickwads, but the level of stupidity required to miss the racism is horrifying in its own way.  It does imply these voters might be changeable the next election, although how to appeal to people who apparently believe anyone who stands up and says "I am a supergenius at creating jobs, trust me, all the bad things in my history just make me a Relatable Guy Like You" is unclear.

Proposal: it is generally pretty rare to be racist against yourself.  (Dave Chapelle's famous skit notwithstanding.) 

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/us/politics/yuma-county-arizona-latinos-trump.html?_r=0
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-probably-did-better-with-latino-voters-than-romney-did/

Quotes I am not making up:
Quote
"I liked what Trump said about keeping American companies in America,” Garcia said. "Yuma can use some of that. We need jobs, but we also need workers."
"I voted for Trump — we need to shake things up. But I’d like to hear his plan to give more visas for agricultural workers," Mr. Martinez said. "If no American wants these jobs, are we going to let the lettuce go rotten?"

What is the one thing that Trump was pretty consistent on?  Immigration restrictions!  How is it even POSSIBLE to believe that Trump was going to OPEN UP immigration?  Apparently because Trump = good businessman = he'll know it makes sense for the economy.  Crazy.  (And...  Trump isn't even a particularly good businessman anyway!  It's just a brand!  ARGH)

Anyway, just as those 30% of Latinos who are also Trump voters might not be racist (sexist, though...), presumably something similar could be said for phenomenally stupid non-Latinos as well.  They are the people that the Democrats need to win back.  Get your focus groups ready.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #691 on: February 28, 2017, 11:11:43 PM »
Hopefully some reasonable Republicans (uh...whose left?  the 2 who opposed Devoss?) will come to light and really discuss things and work together bipartisanly (not going to happen, but I really hope - the partisanism is ridiculous on both sides). 

Hello I am here to Grinch it up again, you pinged on a thing that's been bothering me seeing it repeatedly.

DeVos was confirmed by the narrowest margin possible, a tie vote broken by VP Pence with lots of mulling and rumors of opposition before the vote.  It seems like a lot of people are looking at this and thinking it is a good sign.  "Some Republicans opposed her, and she just barely got through!  That means there's hope for next time, right?"

Wrong.  This was actually the worst possible outcome for Democrats and a strong signal that the GOP remains united and well coordinated.

Voting in a connected, politicized body is not naive.  Individual members of Congress do not vote for their own consciences, or even their home constituents.  They are spending their careers, in some cases their entire lives, in this environment.  Don't think about your home experience with going to the polls and casting your individual vote however you like.  Think about a Mafia game, or a show like Survivor or Big Brother.  Alliances, factions and group voting blocs are not just norms but inevitabilities.  If you can be sure of anything about congressional voting, it is that every vote everyone casts has been discussed, prenegotiated, planned around, and possibly traded.

There are no "brave reasonable individual Republicans who stood up to DeVos."  That is not what happened.  What happened was the Republican senators saw an opportunity for big PR gains.  They conferred and figured out the precise number of how many Republican anti-DeVos votes they could afford, and then decided who among them were going to get to cast those votes (and hopefully reap the exact rewards in reputation that we're seeing). 

The fact that they were able to do this so precisely, down to the actual tie, is a sign that they have 100% confidence in their membership to act exactly as planned and ordered, and they felt there was no chance even a single senator would actually break rank and flip the outcome.  We'll call this case A.  Now, a narrow defeat here would be the worst possible outcome for the GOP, they lose the vote *and* show weakness *and* miss opportunities to gather goodwill/favors from the opposition, so they surely want to avoid that.  If they were actually worried about that possibility, one would expect to see them either: B. concede that battle and toss DeVos fully out the door, with many Republicans voting against her to buy what "bipartisanship" goodwill they could, or C. double down hard, call in favors, and make whatever threats they needed to make to ensure DeVos passed with as many votes as possible.

If you really want to, I guess you could believe that option C happened there and they just barely forced her through.  But that doesn't make much sense to me - it doesn't match the votes on pretty much any other recent issue, and DeVos herself is so dumb and divisive that it's hard to envision a reason why the GOP would choose C over B.  In other words, if they thought there was any real danger of losing, they would've abandoned the cause entirely and told Trump to pick someone else. 

The only realistic way that we see the outcome that actually happened is if Republicans are fully in control of their own party, everyone's on board, and they're dictating votes down to the individual.  This is vote bloc 101 stuff here, it shouldn't really be surprising, but... there's this myth of the noble individual congressperson who just goes in to their job every day and debates from their soul and votes as an individual, and, and maybe everyone just does that, and then we open the box and see which side had more people that believed in it with their whole heart!!  That's how love and justice work in democracy?!!  America!!! <3 <3 <3

No, that's not how it is.  No, not for anyone.  No, not even on the Dem side.  No, not even if you "call your congresspeople enough;" they do not, in fact, "have" to listen to you.  In fact, we can see right now how the "spam their phones!" stuff backfires pretty hard.  Even on the Democrat side, ain't nobody want to work with someone who's going to listen to and encourage phone spam rather than traditional alliances. 

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #692 on: February 28, 2017, 11:29:55 PM »
Alex is right both on voting and that your representatives can choose not to represent you and actually demanding representation from them is going to cause backlash.
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #693 on: March 01, 2017, 01:03:02 AM »
Wrong.  This was actually the worst possible outcome for Democrats and a strong signal that the GOP remains united and well coordinated.

It's a signal of that, yes, but I think the outcome for Democrats was perfectly good.

Dems successfully vilified her, and raised her profile to the extent that she can be used as an attack ad.  I mean, Joe Schmoe doesn't know who Obama's education secretary was.  But the awareness is pretty high that a) DeVos is education secretary, and b) DeVos is unqualified, or at least in some fuzzy lizard-brain sense, bad.

This is a person who McConnell HAD to allow 2 republicans in purple states to vote against, because Democrats were able to parley her poor senate committee performance into popular sentiment.  She'll be an attack ad in 2018.
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #694 on: March 01, 2017, 02:07:53 AM »
In that sense it's a staring contest where nobody blinked. Both sides "won" inasumuch as they could affect the outcome through their own behavior, but with Congress the way it is that means the GOP gets to enact its agenda and the Democrats get a campaign ad.
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #695 on: March 01, 2017, 02:17:47 AM »
Not much that can be done about that though; Republican agenda until 2020 minimum (it'd take a major Republican unforced error for them to lose either house in 2018) is a thing that is going to happen.

While the DeVos thing does send the signal that the Republican congress is showing great solidarity with each other, it is somewhat notable that it shows relatively less solidarity with Trump, as do the comments by folks like Graham and McCain. (I know they're just comments, but it's notable that you did not, that I recall, see such comments by prominent Democrats against Obama.)

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #696 on: March 01, 2017, 06:04:54 AM »
Well, Alex, I had the same thoughts you did, that it was planned out by Republicans that way.  I don't WANT to think that way, but I know it's a definite possibility.  I listened to interviews with those 2 senators right around the time of the confirmation, and they gave seemingly reasonable rationale for why they were voting against her.  Yes, that could be planned (and the more I look at the timeline and think about the logic, the more I err on that side of thinking), but maybe it wasn't.  There is not complete consensus in the GOP, so it's possible.

Again, though, I recognize the likelihood of getting cross-party consensus in this environment is ridiculously unlikely and way too optimistic.  Democrats aren't exempt from this - I'm hearing nothing about working together from their side, just "oppose, oppose, oppose" out of principle.  The thing that makes me laugh and cry at the same time is, back when the GOP took control of the senate under Obama, McConnell said that they were going to oppose Obama on everything out of principle.  Cause that's clearly the best way to do things.  Now, with a complete GOP controlled national government and like 2/3 of the state governments in GOP control, they have the audacity to complain that Democrats and others are voicing their concerns and trying to have discourse on things.  They Democrats HAVE NO FUCKING POWER.  It's not like back when Obama was in office, where things could be blocked on a partisan basis - stop bitching and work together and fix things if you're so goddamned insistent that it's broken. 

2020 is probably when things could change - the senate possibly could swing Democratic in 2018, but I think it's more likely that it either stays the same, gets more GOP, or gets a 50/50 split, which basically means no change from now.

Partisanism bugs me, probably because of the science background.  Should we not be making the best decision for the country, rather than sitting in blocks based on ideology?  Compromise, it's like fucking marriage, people.  Do it, then have awesome make-up sex.  Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell yaoi, yo!
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #697 on: March 01, 2017, 09:11:13 AM »
If the Senate swings Democratic in 2018, then I will be terrified, because it likely means that everything has gone directly to shit.  2006 and 2012 were both very, very good years for the Democrats.  And furthermore, since 2008, Democratic turnout in prez years has been way higher than off-year elections, due to the changing Democratic electorate.  (Old people, who are among the most reliable voters out there, used to swing Dem - and certainly did in 2006, the year of privatizing Social Security.  They've since decisively swung Republican.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
The Dems need to hold North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia, when winning ANY of these races might well be an achievement.  (bear in mind that 2012 was when, in a big surprise, Republican idiots won the primaries, basically let the Dems off the hook in Missouri & Indiana, and even then, it was a near thing.)   Then they will need to take *3* Republican held seats.  Nevada is the only plausible pickup (and it's far from guaranteed), the others are states that would require some kind of 2010 Obamacare backlash wave election to take, like Mark Kirk winning super-Democratic Illinois.  Maaaaaaaaaaaaybe Nevada, Arizona, and Texas if there's some kind of massive Southwest backlash?

Gerrymandered as the House is, it's the best hope for Democrats that doesn't involve assuming an utter collapse of the Republican party.  That said, the best odds of doing it are probably by collecting the fruits of Clinton's appeal in wealthy, educated, Republican districts like Long Island or Orange County that was useless in a presidential election, but might just swing in the House if we really did end up with an educated coastal elites vs. interior Republicans realignment.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/upshot/democrats-best-bet-for-house-control-is-following-the-sun.html
There's also a well-documented trend of some amount of voters to like to "balance out" the party in power.  IOW, all those strange people who voted for House Republicans to keep presumed President Clinton in check might now vote for Dems.  It's not a LOT of people who do this, but across 435 races, it might be enough to swing 1-3 of 'em extra to the Dems.

--
Also, I think Alex is simultaneously right & wrong in his take on the confirmations?  Like, right in that it's surely organized, but wrong in that it's a worrying sign of an evil Republican masterplan.  Counting votes has been done since 1789.  Back In The Day it could be tricky, when a lot of legislation was split within each party, so you could have situations where the other party guys say they'll vote for a bill, then surprise vote against it, but that's not real common anymore.  You just ask them; even if they're voting against, they'll do their colleagues the solid of warning them.  If you don't have the votes in your party, you don't put it up for the vote, and the nominee is informed to withdraw and cite family concerns or something.  That's not new.  So...  the case of a humiliating surprise failed nomination vote isn't really going to happen.

However, I disagree it was just "PR."  Or that if it WAS PR, it was a stupid plan, and not sign of Congressional Republican competence.  To Joe Random Voter, a bunch of cabinet nominees confirmed on party-line votes is super-boring, who cares if it was 6 or 8 nominees this happened to.  This dissent signals that there's a problem and "even some Republicans" acknowledge it.  Look at, say, Obamacare 2009: the fact that some of the then-Blue Dogs in the Senate hemmed and hawwed about Obamacare was taken as "proof" that even some Democrats didn't like Obamacare, because obviously honest debate = they know it's the worst thing evar!!1!  There's very little upside for showing any sort of dissent, politically.  So...  it was genuine discontent.  Now, it's entirely possible that, say, 5 Republican Senators weren't happy about it and wanted to vote no, and the leadership said nah, we gotta push this through, we'll give permission to 2 of you to vote against.  But...  that's still genuine discontent that this conversation was happening to begin with.  Collins is a well-known vaguely sane Republican and Murkowski did work in Education back in Alaska and serves on the Education subcomittee, so seems pretty plausible that they'd hate DeVos the most, and felt they just had to vote against, and negotiated with the leadership to do so.  Pudzer, meanwhile, clearly saw even larger opposition from Senators, so the System Worked (by which I mean The System Didn't Completely Fail Everywhere, Just Mostly Everywhere.)

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« Last Edit: March 01, 2017, 10:35:03 PM by Grefter »
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #699 on: March 02, 2017, 12:04:53 AM »
That happened months ago. Look at the date in the byline.