RPGDL 2016 Season 2, Week 1

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III) vs Lucia (Suikoden Series)
Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4)
Ryu (Breath of Fire III) vs Citan Uzuki (Xenogears)
Endora (Ogre Battle: March of the Black Queen) vs Ominas Crow (Bravely Default)


Heavy

Nina (Breath of Fire) vs Sharon (Legaia 2: Duel Saga)
Ike (Fire Emblem Series) vs Tiamat (Final Fantasy)
Keith Valentine (Shadow Hearts) vs Maria Traydor (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
Strago Magus (Final Fantasy VI) vs Auron (Final Fantasy X)


Middle

Pent (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Sword) vs Jessica Philomele (Mana Khemia: Alchemists of Al Revis)
Kellam (Fire Emblem: Awakening) vs Yulie Ahtreide (Wild ARMs 4)
Bowman Jean (Star Ocean: The Second Story) vs Bob (Suikoden II)
Melbu Frahma (Legend of Dragoon) vs Mog (Final Fantasy VI)


Light

Melville (Suikoden III) vs Sheena (Tales of Symphonia)
Sanaki (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Banon (Final Fantasy VI)
Katarina (Suikoden IV) vs Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII)
Black Wizard (Final Fantasy) vs White Mage (Bravely Default)

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike

Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III) vs Lucia (Suikoden Series)- Phoenix Rune OHKOs
Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4)- Unsure. Cyclops likely hits through Distortion...but could you move out of summon's range in FFT.
Ryu (Breath of Fire III) vs Citan Uzuki (Xenogears)
Endora (Ogre Battle: March of the Black Queen) vs Ominas Crow (Bravely Default)- Uh...well, depends on Endora's damage. Does she 2HKO? I'm not sure. That said, low Endora respect makes this seem unlikely

Heavy

Nina (Breath of Fire) vs Sharon (Legaia 2: Duel Saga)
Ike (Fire Emblem Series) vs Tiamat (Final Fantasy)- Depends on whether I see an Aether kicking in
Keith Valentine (Shadow Hearts) vs Maria Traydor (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)- Gut. Both block each other's money status, Keith kills in 3 turns more quickly unless you see Elemental Leather halving Dark.
Strago Magus (Final Fantasy VI) vs Auron (Final Fantasy X)


Middle

Pent (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Sword) vs Jessica Philomele (Mana Khemia: Alchemists of Al Revis)- Decent damage time cards + healing
Kellam (Fire Emblem: Awakening) vs Yulie Ahtreide (Wild ARMs 4)
Bowman Jean (Star Ocean: The Second Story) vs Bob (Suikoden II)- Oooh. Hm..Secret Medicine is very fast and all Bowman needs is to stall out Bob's Rune. Moon Fists may prevent him from getting 2HKOed.
Melbu Frahma (Legend of Dragoon) vs Mog (Final Fantasy VI)- Semi fatal status that Mog can't do anything about. Everyone else struggles to beat him though!


Light

Melville (Suikoden III) vs Sheena (Tales of Symphonia)- Smashed
Sanaki (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Banon (Final Fantasy VI)- Thinking this over.
Katarina (Suikoden IV) vs Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII)- Good at limit avoidance!
Black Wizard (Final Fantasy) vs White Mage (Bravely Default)- Reflect

[Random Consonant]

Godlike

Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III) vs Lucia (Suikoden Series) - e: okay sure
Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4) - I may or may not see Cyclops bypassing Distortion... but I'm also pretty sure that even with Short Charge it'll resolve after a 90% speed PC will get a turn which means he faces down three Tank Drops anyways, which I am pretty sure he does not survive (hell, I'm not even sure he survives two).
Ryu (Breath of Fire III) vs Citan Uzuki (Xenogears) - fuckin' rip


Heavy

Nina (Breath of Fire) vs Sharon (Legaia 2: Duel Saga) - I assume.
Ike (Fire Emblem Series) vs Tiamat (Final Fantasy) - Ike10 Res is bad but probably not enough so that DoS Tiamat 3HKOs him, and Ragnell opener to beat the average speed tiebreak should still let him 4HKO first here to me regardless of Aether kicking in (and this is assuming I see DoS Tiamat's pdur literally).
Strago Magus (Final Fantasy VI) vs Auron (Final Fantasy X)

Middle

Pent (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Sword) vs Jessica Philomele (Mana Khemia: Alchemists of Al Revis) - Probably.
Kellam (Fire Emblem: Awakening) vs Yulie Ahtreide (Wild ARMs 4) - Killer crit misses the OHKO by a hair to me so yeah, and if anything FE killer weapons deserve no judgment calls made in their favor ever.
Bowman Jean (Star Ocean: The Second Story) vs Bob (Suikoden II) - I'll bite.
Melbu Frahma (Legend of Dragoon) vs Mog (Final Fantasy VI) - I just... ugh... Mog gives him way too much time to play the odds, especially considering he has to give up both relic slots, and as much as Melbu "lol" Frahma applies here, I have zero sympathy for anyone relying on a strategy that involves unreliable 15HKOing *each form* and relying on a 3/8 chance of healing to not die.  Maybe if Earth Blues had the same chance of healing he could pull this off, but that has a 1/8 chance of Sunbath so lol no.


Light

Melville (Suikoden III) vs Sheena (Tales of Symphonia) - Assuming combo hype is legit here, for all that the idea of Sheena being not utterly awful kind of makes me throw up in my mouth a bit.
Sanaki (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Banon (Final Fantasy VI) - Pretty sure Sanaki 2HKOs to me so Banon can't safely attack ever.
Katarina (Suikoden IV) vs Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII)
Black Wizard (Final Fantasy) vs White Mage (Bravely Default)

[superaielman]

Godlike

Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III) vs Lucia (Suikoden Series)- I think so? Chris is really tanky and Lucia is not.
Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4)- I think so. Velius starts so slowly.
Ryu (Breath of Fire III) vs Citan Uzuki (Xenogears)
Endora (Ogre Battle: March of the Black Queen) vs Ominas Crow (Bravely Default)- Magic evasion tips this.


Heavy

Nina (Breath of Fire) vs Sharon (Legaia 2: Duel Saga)- Surely she blocks Hold.
Ike (Fire Emblem Series) vs Tiamat (Final Fantasy)- You see 1PSP/GBA having any kind of prayer Dhyer? That form is so, so garbage.  That said, my own vote... guh. Think Ike wins on the average of assumptions. Tiamat has to go first and 2HKO to have a chance.
Keith Valentine (Shadow Hearts) vs Maria Traydor (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)- Maria is kind of bad when Paralysis is out.
Strago Magus (Final Fantasy VI) vs Auron (Final Fantasy X)- Status.


Middle

Pent (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Sword) vs Jessica Philomele (Mana Khemia: Alchemists of Al Revis)- Kneejerk.
Bowman Jean (Star Ocean: The Second Story) vs Bob (Suikoden II)
Melbu Frahma (Legend of Dragoon) vs Mog (Final Fantasy VI)- E: I am not inclined to give Melbu 'lol' Frahma a judgment call, ever.

Light

Sanaki (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Banon (Final Fantasy VI)- Uh.
Katarina (Suikoden IV) vs Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII)
Black Wizard (Final Fantasy) vs White Mage (Bravely Default)- I think? WM has to slug down BM before he can get a temper physical setup of doom rolling. Even with the extra turn and BM going first... I think this is right. Guh.

[SnowFire]

Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III) vs Lucia (Suikoden Series)
Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4)
I tend to respect WA4 speed a little less than the stat topic does, but Belial might well 2HKO anyway, especially if Velius is charging for one of those hits.  (Also, Yulie's WA4 summons hit Belial, so Velius has a solid argument to hit here too, yes.)
Endora (Ogre Battle: March of the Black Queen) vs Ominas Crow (Bravely Default)
Endora needs to evade, like, everything to me.  Which is possible!

Heavy

Ike (Fire Emblem Series) vs Tiamat (Final Fantasy)
I'm down with Aether hype.
Keith Valentine (Shadow Hearts) vs Maria Traydor (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
I'll believe Dhyer.
Strago Magus (Final Fantasy VI) vs Auron (Final Fantasy X)
Sour Mouth.

Middle

Kellam (Fire Emblem: Awakening) vs Yulie Ahtreide (Wild ARMs 4)
I don't think a Killer Lance or Luna is enough for a OHKO, so a slow Yulie victory.
EDIT: A Kellam Killer Lance might barely, barely, BARELY OHKO.  Like, .81 to .826 PCHP before taking into account subtractive defense, and subtractive defense BARELY moving the needle a whisper upward.
Bowman Jean (Star Ocean: The Second Story) vs Bob (Suikoden II)
If Dhyer says so.
Melbu Frahma (Legend of Dragoon) vs Mog (Final Fantasy VI)
Disclaimer: I don't remember Melbu.  But according to the stat topic, he's got stun, confuse, & stone.  Mog can block Stone, doesn't care about confuse (if you're dancing it shouldn't really matter), and stun only helps if it's a really long number of turns.  I guess Mog can get unlucky with failing to use healing for too many turns in a row, but in-game bosses can use the wrong move way more often, so.

Light

Melville (Suikoden III) vs Sheena (Tales of Symphonia)
Sanaki (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Banon (Final Fantasy VI)
Katarina (Suikoden IV) vs Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII)
Black Wizard (Final Fantasy) vs White Mage (Bravely Default)
BW's Mdurability is too terrible to give him time to setup a nasty physical.

[Dhyerwolf]

Right, I forgot that Mog could block Stone, although I don't see why Mog could successfully dance under LoD Confuse, which is a status that is nearly as nasty FF 6 Charm (the only thing that makes it less nasty is that it wears off with time, although the flip is that it's far more common than Charm). What does Mog do under Charm in game while dancing?

[Dark Holy Elf]

Forget about Charm, FF6 Confuse (reverses all targeting) wrecks Dance real bad. The only things FF6 Confuse can't reverse the targeting of are Summons and Desperation Attacks, IIRC. Even nonsensical things like Suplex can have their targeting reversed!

Not that I care much either way, because (a) it isn't about how good FF6 Confuse is, it's how good Melbu's confuse is, and LoD confuse is "target randomly loses a turn and does MHP damage to self" (which should work fine regardless of what the opponent would want to do otherwise, and (b) Mog can block both at the same time, though I'm open to the argument that this leaves him too weak to still win.

[Dhyerwolf]

I was under the impression that people don't allow multiple status blockers generally?

From my recollection, LoD Confuse was a more standard confuse (not a turn loss). From my recollection, you never targetted enemies underit (since it's the only thing on randoms that can ever be dangerous. If you hit a bad one and have bad luck, your PCs will start slicing into each other and themslves pretty badly while the enemies do the same) and it's only cancelled by time (so even smacking yourself several times in the face doesn't lift it).

[SnowFire]

I think that's only you, Dhyer.  That seems difficult to enforce anyway for lots of games where status-blocking can exist in non-accessory slots, or when there isn't really a category called "accessories."   (Although, if you assume that useful storebought accessories are used instead per Elf, Mog doesn't like removing the 2nd accessory since FF6 has pretty badass storebought accessories.)

Anyway FWIW, I want to say that I've seen Zombie Mog use Sun Dance on the correct party, but checking, that might be because Zombie is random-targeting not enemy-friendly-targeting.  Per Elf, though, it sounds like Mog might be able to safely ignore LoD Confuse anyway, unless the HP damage is worse than expected.

[Dark Holy Elf]

From my recollection, LoD Confuse was a more standard confuse (not a turn loss).

Mm okay I'm misremembering. Probably the attack-allies animation was so weird it was throwing me off. Looks like it's "chance of Escape, Defend, or Attack random ally/self". That's... actually much worse, since Mog can just unequip his weapon so yeah it's only good for turn-cancelling + sometimes he'll defend.

And yeah I don't see a compelling reason to only allow one statusblocker. Against other PCs it makes some sense (and I think this is why it was first proposed), in that it rewards PCs who have a variety of status options while punishing one-status wonders. Against bosses... no. Not like it's at all hard to simultaneouly block stone and confuse in LoD.

[Dhyerwolf]

I didn't realize that others allowed double blockers (although assigning a penalty would make Mog potentially pretty bad in some way I imagine. Double penalty can't be very good). I'm assuming then that FF 9 is also allowed to block status since the argument against them was how good their equipment was (and Mog's is far better than anything they have given that's crazy defense is far more universally applicable than elemental resistances. Not to mention that Mog's equipment that he basically rides on is kind of bad FAQ bait with the arena, that's almost stacked on another level of FAQ bait in terms of DL legality since you need 4 Behemoth Suits to make Snow Muffler legal). Feels like having to give a lot of equipment leeway overall to me.

I would also say that double blockers doesn't seem aimed at single status PCs. I would assume then people who allow doubles also at least all-blockers to block 1 status?

Confuse isn't about Mog attacking himself (not with that defense), but rather it gives Melbu a lot of time to just kill Mog with magic.

[Tide]

Godlike
Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4) - I'm probably the only person who doesn't see Summons as breaking the Distortion. There are definite MT attacks in FFT (Galaxy Stop comes to mind), Velius just has none. So yeah, this is lopsided.

Heavy
Keith Valentine (Shadow Hearts) vs Maria Traydor (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time) - Straightforward, yeah. Maria's bad when Paralysis is out, so pretty certain on this unless someone wants to math out the numbers.
Strago Magus (Final Fantasy VI) vs Auron (Final Fantasy X) - Can't stop Bad Breath.

Middle
Kellam (Fire Emblem: Awakening) vs Yulie Ahtreide (Wild ARMs 4) - Luna crit is something, but I think Yulie gets enough steam going with Quicken/Protect shinenagans. Also the chance that Luna crit may not even OHKO as per user 'SnowFire', so...

Light
Sanaki (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Banon (Final Fantasy VI) - Kneejerk. Banon's physical offense is pretty bad. Bad enough that I'm not sure he even scares Sanaki with them. He also runs headfirst into counters and a Flare proc doesn't help him either.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III) vs Lucia (Suikoden Series) - EDIT: Yeah, I'm convinced.
Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4) - Not entirely sure how I feel about Cyclops bypassing Distortion (it's not even one of the more impressive summons for AoE radius), but I'm pretty sure she can get three hits in if Velius goes that way anyway.
Ryu (Breath of Fire III) vs Citan Uzuki (Xenogears) - Breaks bones.
Endora (Ogre Battle: March of the Black Queen) vs Ominas Crow (Bravely Default) - Evasion tips nothing against over 3x PC HP that 2HKOs Endora's ass at worst.

Nina (Breath of Fire) vs Sharon (Legaia 2: Duel Saga) - Uh I think so. Nina doesn't like getting her status options blocked against that level of backended damage.
Ike (Fire Emblem Series) vs Tiamat (Final Fantasy) - FE9 Ike just doubles and two-rounds Tiamat while not even being 2HKOed back. That's that.
Keith Valentine (Shadow Hearts) vs Maria Traydor (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time) - Unless Elemental Leather resists Dark, this is right. Both block each other's relevant status, both 3HKO each other and Keith's faster.
Strago Magus (Final Fantasy VI) vs Auron (Final Fantasy X) - Lack of listerine.

Pent (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Sword) vs Jessica Philomele (Mana Khemia: Alchemists of Al Revis) - I... guess? Silence is a lockdown if it hits and Pent doesn't have the easiest time getting past the timed cards.
Kellam (Fire Emblem: Awakening) vs Yulie Ahtreide (Wild ARMs 4) - Killer Lance crit barely OHKOs Yulie even under Protect (which says a lot about Yulie). That's not a pretty sight.
Bowman Jean (Star Ocean: The Second Story) vs Bob (Suikoden II) - I'll bite Dhyer hype.
Melbu Frahma (Legend of Dragoon) vs Mog (Final Fantasy VI) - Curse Elfboy and his maths.

Katarina (Suikoden IV) vs Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII) - While this is immensely sad, I think Katarina can chip-2HKO here (she needs to, since Selphie 3HKOs herself and has a 4-3).
Black Wizard (Final Fantasy) vs White Mage (Bravely Default) - White Mage two-rounds BW's egregious mdur with a brave-blitz. His status is turn three at best (worse against WM mdef and mnd).

[Dark Holy Elf]

I didn't realize that others allowed double blockers (although assigning a penalty would make Mog potentially pretty bad in some way I imagine. Double penalty can't be very good). I'm assuming then that FF 9 is also allowed to block status since the argument against them was how good their equipment was (and Mog's is far better than anything they have given that's crazy defense is far more universally applicable than elemental resistances. Not to mention that Mog's equipment that he basically rides on is kind of bad FAQ bait with the arena, that's almost stacked on another level of FAQ bait in terms of DL legality since you need 4 Behemoth Suits to make Snow Muffler legal). Feels like having to give a lot of equipment leeway overall to me.

I would also say that double blockers doesn't seem aimed at single status PCs. I would assume then people who allow doubles also at least all-blockers to block 1 status?

Confuse isn't about Mog attacking himself (not with that defense), but rather it gives Melbu a lot of time to just kill Mog with magic.

Not sure where that FF9 tangent came from and I really don't want to get into that stupid argument which has been done to death already in a week where FF9 isn't even in. The FF9 blockers aren't legal to me because they're skills. Let's move on.

I allow all-blockers to block all the status they block in their home game, which helps distinguish the ones that aren't actually very good (Yellow Scarves) with the ones which are.

If you want to take up arms against allowing the Snow Muffler, feel free. I agree that it's on shaky ground! It's one of those things which is definitely legal via inertia to me and I am open to the argument that this should be changed. However, I'm not going to be harsher on Mog for something unrelated in the meantime.

FWIW I'm honestly leaning Melbu in this match, I think he can be a bit underrated (his mdur is really good, so he has forever to get lucky here), but I need to sit down with the numbers.

[Pyro]

Godlike

Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III) vs Lucia (Suikoden Series): OHKO or maybe just win under SL with the defense/evade?
Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4): Don't think Cyclops beats the Distortion.
Ryu (Breath of Fire III) vs Citan Uzuki (Xenogears): A variety of ways to KO.
Endora (Ogre Battle: March of the Black Queen) vs Ominas Crow (Bravely Default): Superior damage/durability.


Heavy

Nina (Breath of Fire) vs Sharon (Legaia 2: Duel Saga): Nina gets statused or Mystic Arte'd? But Nina will inflict Idle and... Silence? That may not be good. I lean Sharon though her Mystic Arte will be halved by Nina's robe... Did Idle always nerf accuracy or was that just a Myria thing?
Ike (Fire Emblem Series) vs Tiamat (Final Fantasy): Should KO.
Keith Valentine (Shadow Hearts) vs Maria Traydor (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
Strago Magus (Final Fantasy VI) vs Auron (Final Fantasy X): Initiative Breath Mint hype?


Middle

Pent (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Sword) vs Jessica Philomele (Mana Khemia: Alchemists of Al Revis): She can heal and doesn't trigger his counters? Silence might work. I think that was a physical status infliction even.
Kellam (Fire Emblem: Awakening) vs Yulie Ahtreide (Wild ARMs 4): Buff and smite?
Bowman Jean (Star Ocean: The Second Story) vs Bob (Suikoden II)
Melbu Frahma (Legend of Dragoon) vs Mog (Final Fantasy VI): Mog would give up considerable Pdur and speed to immune Stone+Confuse... Though his pdur is still awesome. That probably works in his favor.


Light

Melville (Suikoden III) vs Sheena (Tales of Symphonia): yeesh.
Sanaki (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Banon (Final Fantasy VI): Banon can be in the front row here... He'll 2-3HKO her And she 3HKOs him. He can heal. She'll 2HKO him with FLIPPING but that probably won't happen.
Katarina (Suikoden IV) vs Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII)
Black Wizard (Final Fantasy) vs White Mage (Bravely Default): KO with a Brave-Blitz?

[Dark Holy Elf]

Initiative Stop hype?

Sadly for Auron, his Threaten lasts considerably less time than it takes for him to get a turn.

Also I didn't think Jessica had anything physical whatsoever. (For all that I suspect this won't matter.)

[Pyro]

Ah I thought Auron's stop was good but not respected because it doesn't work on his fellow PCs. My mistake.
You're right. Jessica's Thundering Hammer attack is magic. Even though she's hitting them with a giant mace. Makes sense.

[SnowFire]

Pyro: Who knows, but Elf has claimed before that the vast majority of lategame LoD boss damage is magical, so Mog can throw away Protect with little penalty most likely.  (Also means that DL Kongol is somehow overrated, and Meru / Miranda are better in-game.)

For Nina & Idle, BoF Idle is normally like -20 AGL or something, so it mildly slows characters down (which also reduces accuracy).  However, for very fast enemies, Idle is bugged and it just sets their AGL to 0.  Some kind of screwed up check?  Who knows.  Anyway Tyr/Myria is max speed so affected by the bug/feature, so she goes to maximum slowness + horrible accuracy.  I don't believe it's nearly so effective on nearly any other enemy in the game.  EDIT: It wouldn't surprise me if the bug was that Idle *increases* speed or something, and the number just overflows for really big numbers, leading to the original intended functionality.  But I have no idea and haven't tested this.

Are you not giving out counters to FE characters anymore?  Even if Sanaki only 3HKOs, Banon may still be in deep, because he has to wait for Sanaki to miss (which, in fairness, happens not infrequently) before he can attack.  That gives her a loooooooooot of time to hope for an Arcthunder crit or to level up more or some such.

Jo'ou: Hmm, does the Killer Lance do the trick?  Let's see.   Killer Lance crit does 75 damage to Elf's average FEA defense.  If we care about subtractive defense, even protected'd Yulie is mildly below average defense, so this Killer crit is relatively more potent than usual thanks to 3x chance.  Kill point is 92.5, so that's .81 PCHP effective.  Protected Yulie is listed at....  .826 effective PDef, if I read the durability right (1/1.21).  So...  a survival check basically.  If given any sorta credit for crits overkilling squishy defense types harder, Kellam probably makes it to tie that, at least, although WA4-esque random variance can still mess with it.

Kellam gets his crit in 4x attacks or so.  Yulie...  Haste/Heal, then start alternating really crappy Sacrifices & Heals, or just a Heal if she doesn't double.  Yeah I don't think that's doing anything fast, so she needs Kellam to not OHKO.  I'll change my vote to Kellam, but it's still really close.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

It's close because it's a very low OHKO to her and Kellam's AS is egregious, but Yulie as a rule of thumb matches up very poorly to FE physicallers with closish to 2HKO damage. She has -very little- leeway to attack, since counters put a lot of pressure on her and Sacrifice is an insanely risky proposal (she can only use it if there's no threat of a ranged counter). She spends so much time on the defensive and one bad roll leads to her demise.

[Pyro]

Somehow I forgot about counters. Isn't that weird?

Wouldn't Sanaki run out of attacks before critting? I thought that could happen only for critting PCs...

[SnowFire]

Well, if Kellam equips a Javelin, his damage is insanely horrible thanks to Braves massively, massively inflating the damage average, so Javelin counter + Brave Lance kills Yulie.  Javelin attack + Javelin counter + Brave will kill...  but...  if Kellam starts tossing Javelins, Yulie can just turtle and gain FP from the attacks and use MP-efficient healing, and probably outlast Kellam's Javelin weapon charges if he's only given 1.  So...  yeah, don't think that's an issue.  Kellam needs to have a Killer Lance out and spam attack, so counters aren't a concern, just Sacrifice doing cruddy damage due to having to be used *after* she's attacked so she can heal afterward is an issue.

Sanaki, if she is assumed to have blessed Cymbilene and this isn't changeable (Which is legit, it's what I'd hold her to), very well might run out of Arcthunder charges before a crit - I think Elf claimed her odds were 4% of a crit with it?  But she can also wait until she's Level 20 before she starts fishing for crits unless she's very unlucky.  Banon has to wait for Sanaki to miss, AND Sanaki has to repeatedly not proc Flare when resuming her heal lock, as that will heal her back up.  So she can spam Cymbelene a LOT while getting enough XP to raise her to 6% odds of crit or whatever if you think that'd help.  Additionally, as she levels up, she gets more accurate, which makes Banon's game - hope for ~2-3 misses in short succession with no Flare - rarer.

[Pyro]

Banon can crit too. And if he does he just follows it up with a 2HKO.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Actually, he can't. Sanaki's luck compared to average > Banon's 6% rate.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike

Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III) vs Lucia (Suikoden Series): Not really buying Chris OHKOing. So... think Chris is just screwed? She isn't surviving five Lucia attacks short of Silent Lake, SL doesn't let her outslug I don't think.
Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4): Mm, I think I do see summons going throgh the barrier. Unfortunately I don't think this remotely matters, Belial certainly isn't failing to 3HKO and should interrupt Cyclops, and isn't OHKOed by a Velius physical. She may also just 2HKO.
Ryu (Breath of Fire III) vs Citan Uzuki (Xenogears): Sorry Doc.

Heavy

Nina (Breath of Fire) vs Sharon (Legaia 2: Duel Saga): Idle always debuffs accuracy, but the MA is pretty unavoidable, and status could tilt things Sharon's way too.
Ike (Fire Emblem Series) vs Tiamat (Final Fantasy): Hm, I forgot Ike doubled average in FE9, if barely. Yeah that takes it. More inclined to vote on FE9 since the laguz do less to muck with the averages and give me headaches. If Ike didn't double, I'd probably see Tiamat winning this, AETHER not kicking in fast enough against a 3HKO even if you take the numbers literally.
Keith Valentine (Shadow Hearts) vs Maria Traydor (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time): Faster, yeah.
Strago Magus (Final Fantasy VI) vs Auron (Final Fantasy X): Take a breath mint, Strago.


Middle

Pent (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Sword) vs Jessica Philomele (Mana Khemia: Alchemists of Al Revis): Thundering Hammer is probably turn 2, but does trigger counters, and Pent isn't failing to 3HKO. So... healing? Yeah that works. It's full, so buys her time, Pent can only win with a crit. Sky Present's also a reasonably safe way to win.
Kellam (Fire Emblem: Awakening) vs Yulie Ahtreide (Wild ARMs 4): Protected Yulie actually has nearly average Def, the PDur woes are mostly from her HP. And of course I convert everything to division anyway. So... I think this is right? But could very readily be argued. EDIT: Seems like it depends on exactly where the FE13 kill point is.
Bowman Jean (Star Ocean: The Second Story) vs Bob (Suikoden II): Sure whatever, too lazy to look up Bob.
Melbu Frahma (Legend of Dragoon) vs Mog (Final Fantasy VI): I think Melbu has... a 4HKO in his final form, 5HKO in form 2, against Mog. It's a bit better if you respect Melbu's damage as much as the stat topic, but I really undersells/ignores the HP boosting you have at that point, I feel. Now, Wind Song will heal him 3/8 of the time, and does like 11HKO damage on average. It's non-ITD magic, though, so it runs up against Melbu's 5+ PC mdur, and it like 15HKOs each form. If Mog ever fails to heal 3 times in a row against Melbu form 4, he loses, and that has a 24% chance per 3-turn interval. Plus the chance he dies to any of the other forms. It's gonna happen, guys.




Light

Sanaki (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) vs Banon (Final Fantasy VI): I'm kinda confused by the discussion here. Sanaki 2HKOs, she has a borderline 2HKO to average using the higher listed average and Banon is well below. She counters so Banon's safe openings to attack = virtually never. She also doubleturns Banon eventually. Next.
Katarina (Suikoden IV) vs Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII): Lotsa damage control.
Black Wizard (Final Fantasy) vs White Mage (Bravely Default): WM's huge problem is running out of resources, BM's bad mdur makes that far less of an issue than normal, and her great Mind/MDef makes already crappy BM status even worse.

[SnowFire]

Kellam (Fire Emblem: Awakening) vs Yulie Ahtreide (Wild ARMs 4): Protected Yulie actually has nearly average Def, the PDur woes are mostly from her HP. And of course I convert everything to division anyway. So... I think this is right? But could very readily be argued.

To be clear on this, this is true, but Kellam misses the OHKO by an INSANELY small margin, and whatever difference there is between Yulie's Defense & average defense is multiplied by 3 by the nature of FE crits.  (Well, if we want to nitpick, the difference is multiplied by 3 if it's worth at least -1 Def after rounding, I guess.)  Also WA4 also has subtractive defense, right?  (Certainly Jude's weapon upgrades make it seem like it.)  Obv if you always convert it's irrelevant, but I think it's reasonable to price this in a bit myself.

Also, if you use the accuracy-adjusted damage average for FEA, Kellam can just OHKO.  (I don't, skills & all.)