Winners bracket:
Red - Aurora (CoL), Millenia (Grandia 2), Jessica (DQ8), Agate (Trais series)
vs
Silver - Lenneth (VP), Souji (P4), Chris Lightfellow (Suiko3), Marcus (FE6 only)
Couple of different dimensions here. First, if Len1 can get enough Fire Res to soften the opening burst to survivable, then Lenneth wants to be Len1. Note that Souji does have a Persona that nulls Fire and Halves Phys with Helel. So he's always going to be safe from the opening salvo. If Team Red goes for the same strat as before - massive MT damage of death - they will kill everyone but Souji and Len1. At this point, it's pretty much over because Jess/Agate will have blown all their resources. Len1 kills Millenia, then Souji starts Reviving people and/or OCVs.
If Lenneth can't get enough Fire Res as Len 1, Len2 still makes this possible. Opening Salvo kills everyone but Souji. Souji can then Revive Lenneth. If Millenia SBEs Souji, Lenneth should be able to survive follow up hits from Agate/Jess off hand (since they'd dumped their massive damage resources) and Revive Chris and things just start going south at that point.
Moral of this story: Putting 2 Revivers, 3 mass healers and 3 synergistic godlikes together = lol.
Brown - Lilka (WA2), Elc (Arc the Lad 2), Towa (ToCS), Arnaud (WA4)
vs
Blond - Primm (SoM), Tidus (FFX), Alisa (ToCS), Sonya (Suiko1)
Team Brown can make things pretty irritating for Team Blond, but at the end of the day, there's just too many threats to keep in check. The main argument for Brown lies in Arnaud and Lilka stacking buffs on Elc and having him systematically drain the MP of the vital targets so they can't cast MT death on top of them and slowly grind back from losing the initial footrace. They can sorta get away with this maybe for a round and take out probably one of the threats. But at that point, most likely, Lilka and Towa are both dead. Arnaud can't heal so this creates big big problems. Worse yet, assuming they do take out Primm's MP and Arnaud manages to get Illusion to stick on Tidus, they have no way to handle Alisa. Not only can she *also* revive teammates (so her MP has to go), but when she dies, she'll launch a big MT damage, self revive, then get *all* her MP back. This means, the only way for team Brown to really make any headway is for drain all of Alisa's MP (and leave her as the last target), Illusion Tidus to neuter his physicals and find someway to incapacitate Purim before she starts statusing out key people. All within a single turn. Good try, but no.
Losers bracket: A loss here will result in elimination from later rounds.
Blue - Rena (SO2), Rudy (WA1), Artea (Lufia 2), Magus (CT)
vs
Black - Yuri Lowell (ToV), Zerase (Suiko5), Fang (FF13), Sancho (FM4)
I think. Team Black's big weakness here is lack of revivers. This means that if any of them go down, they will be down for the count. With Magus' ID, this can cause issues if key people die too early. However, Dhyer/NEB analysis feels right? Outside of Magus, rest of Team Blue isn't that threatening. Rudy is pretty much a non-entity since he's way too slow and Fang can lock someone down once she gets going. Yuri + Zerase will kill any target sans maybe Magus - so they go for Rena and Artea and probably take them both out by Round 1. So at the end of the day, it's pretty much Magus OCV or bust. Don't think I buy that since he has to take out 3 pretty nasty targets. Large part does depend on how you see Magus' ID working. If he takes out Fang AND Zerase at the start for example, Team Black is in deep. But it sounds like it has some targeting issues and Fang being able to resist it should drop the worse case scenario from happening.
Pink - Jess (MK), Arche (ToP), Et (MK2), Makalov (FE series)
vs
Green - Elincia (FE10), Clive (WA3), Emeralda (XG), Terra(FF6)
Turn order here is something like Emmy > Et > Elincia/Makalov > Jess = Terra > Arche > Clive. Anyway, team Pink is still sort of outclassed here. I don't buy the "Et having a bow" argument. She does have an attack that changes her chakram into a bow, but many of her other attacks are bludgeon type in nature than piercing. Even then, she has to deal with Elincia's evade, so I don't really see it. She probably wants to go after Terra instead since she's Green's sole reviver. When Elincia gets her turn, she'll probably kill off whoever Emmy has attacked (so probably Jess). Terra will probably Petrify someone and since Team Pink has no status healing, this puts them at a near 2 person disadvantage. Even if Jess gets off a Healing Echo, Clive can Gatling to seal this advantage. That's probably game at that point.
