Silver - Lenneth (VP), Souji (P4), Chris Lightfellow (Suiko3), Marcus (FE6 only)
vs
Blond - Primm (SoM), Tidus (FFX), Alisa (ToCS), Sonya (Suiko1)
Alisa vs Souji is already a close match, so in this setting, it's a question of "Is Alisa's support better than Souji's ?". The big thing working against Team Silver is obviously losing initiative. By the time Souji gets to act, most of his team will be Slowed or Statused in some way. Was Primm's status 100% accurate? Snowfire's analysis suggests Souji will get hit by it, but I question that since he does have things that reduces accuracy rates and nulls certain types of Status. Say best case scenario for Blonde is Souji gets hit with something. Figuring out Turn Order here is then important because if Lenneth gets a turn, she can Cure Condition (as Len2) to restore Souji and Chris can drop Silent Lake. Once Silent Lake is down, Team Blond is in trouble since Alisa/Sonya don't have good physical offense and even Tidus (when Haste'd) can't deal with 3 people who deal well against physicals. Okay, so Blond wants to incapacitate Souji, then kill Chris. Can they do that? If they focus down on Chris, maybe. If Souji knows he's going to be eating status, he might instead want to equip something with Auto-Suku so that Lenneth and Chris gain M-Evade. This makes that kill less likely and can guarantee Silent Lake landing. I don't see what Team Blonde can do once SL lands.
Basically if they give Souji an actual turn, they are in deep. And even with the speed difference, I'm not sure they can take out Chris before SL hits, which almost guarantees a Souji turn beat down. Good fight though - can be argued.
Losers bracket: A loss here will result in elimination from later rounds.
Brown - Lilka (WA2), Elc (Arc the Lad 2), Towa (ToCS), Arnaud (WA4)
vs
Black - Yuri Lowell (ToV), Zerase (Suiko5), Fang (FF13), Sancho (FM4)
The way I see it, Yuri either gets neutered by Illusion or Shut Out. Pick your poison boy. So Zerase lands big ass damage, Lilka heals it off, Elc nukes Zerase's MP, Fang begins lock down on someone, Towa charges up either Ancient Glyph or Crystal Flood. It will go off and probably Freeze someone - maybe more than one person. Sancho doesn't do much but heals one person.
Turn 2 arrives and Zerase maybe has something else left. Suiko charges and traditionally MP busting is weird. Say she has something useful, and hits the whole team with. If Fang went with single person lock down (say on Arnaud), then she has to keep doing that or risk him getting a turn to do more obnoxious stuff. So that leaves Lilka unchecked, and she can do something again (MT Heal again?), Elc definitely kills Zerase's useful MP at this point. Sancho/Towa still doesn't do much but the more random status procs that occur at this point can get really nasty.
Turn 3, Illusion/Shut Out is about to wear off, but Zerase is done. So Brown can now focus on removing Yuri or Fang. Fang might want to consider locking down Elc now since he can keep MP busting folks which will also kill Yuri's offense. But if she leaves Arnaud alone, he can just reapply or Extend the debuff about to wear off. Tough. Say she still goes after Arnaud - Lilka Quicks Elc, Elc begins working on Yuri's MP. Yuri kills someone (Towa/Lilka since they can Res), Sancho still not doing much.
From this point on, feels like Team Brown has too much control. If we go back to Turn 1 and say Fang does Slowga as suggested - I'm not sure things will be that much different. Yuri is still ineffective then. Unless Zerase laps (and I doubt this - if FF13 Haste isn't that useful, my kneejerk is that it's Slow probably isn't either), they can't do enough before one of Towa or Lilka gain a turn and start healing. If Arnaud gains follow up turns, he will Slow Fang down (which ruins the effectiveness of her locking people down) and make things even more of a mess. Think Brown has this.
Red - Aurora (CoL), Millenia (Grandia 2), Jessica (DQ8), Agate (Trais series)
vs
Green - Elincia (FE10), Clive (WA3), Emeralda (XG), Terra(FF6)
This is the easy one. Unless you see Elincia's evade/MDef being able to stop Magic Burst/Agate S-Craft burst damage in some way, team Green begins the fight with everyone dead sans Terra. IF Elincia is alive, Green wins. Terra lands Petrify on Millenia, Elincia heals Terra, then they take out Team Red since Jess/Agate are now empty. If Elincia is dead, Terra is probably too injured after the initial salvo to really survive 3 additional attacks before she can heal (Aurora/Jess/Agate phys can probably kill her AFTER she eats the burst...right?) so she can't OCV. Would be funny if she could though.
