Sharon Kreuger (Trails of Cold Steel II) vs
Altima (Final Fantasy Tactics)Altima DOES have status holes, but unless you are punishing about status equivalence (which in fairness, some people are) and don't let Sleep blocking get Nightmare, Sharon is out of luck unless you see Altima HP is truly terrible.
Flynn (Shin Megami Tensei IV) vs
Sanctuary Keeper (Final Fantasy X)This is actually a rather good match, albeit one with a lot of interp calls. Flynn can't block Silence, and Silence is extremely bad for him, though he does at least block one of Sleep or Confuse (presumably Sleep). Mana Breath is also a 2HKO he can't elementally resist, and still a 2HKO even after a Doping max HP boost, and isn't normally evadable in its home game. So.. Flynn is in trouble in a long match, either being heal-locked by damage and praying for magic evade to kick in (maybe off Luster Candy, interp permitting?), or getting Silenced then 2HKO'd vs. Photon Breath.
Still, he has an argument: go first, Concentrate -> Megidolaon and hope to just plain OHKO, which gives SK only 1 turn to gamble on 50% Silence. This does require seeing Almighty magic as penetrating FFX magic defense, but that may actually be a reasonable call since FFX Mental Break exists and SMT4 Almighty is somewhat similar (there's no MDef stat in-game, so magically tanky enemies are ones that resist or immune all elements, which Almighty gets around). That said, this comes out to 1.23 PCHP, and the stat topic gives SK 1.24 PCHP, and my usual kneejerk is to be even nicer than Elf's numbers for FFX boss durability, so no dice. Still.
(And probably for the best for the actual good votedraw to move on anyway.)
Naja Gref (Sands of Destruction) vs BossX (SaGa Frontier)
No Saga, but for reference, here's the Wiki page for SoD Naja:
http://www.rpgdl.com/wiki/index.php?title=Sands_of_Destruction_Naja&action=editShort version: he's status immune (well, except to ID), and yes SoD has both confuse and stun. Like most SoD characters, he full-heals himself every turn, so BossX needs to OHKO. Which it looks like he probably does with Lord'sDinner, so the question is if Lord'sDinner is evadable? If it is, Naja can chip & stall to the limit, get perfect evade, then go nuts. if not, he's dead.
Heavy
Jusis Albarea (Trails of Cold Steel) vs Auron (Final Fantasy X)
Kinda doubt Auron has an answer to Freeze.
Celica (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia) vs
Umi (Cthulhu Saves the World)Pyro, how much does Cute Pose boost damage? Not that it matters that much here. Umi opens with Cute Pose, Celica goes for Excalibur and hopes for a crit (which is fatal, even through the buff). If she doesn't get it, Siren's Call for Stun +Insanity (which presumably turns off counters), then doubled Thunder Strike for horrible overkill death.
Middle
Mitsuki Hokutono (Tokyo Xanadu) vs Yulie Ahtreide (Wild ARMs 4)
No TX, but purely off the stat topic... if the match stalls out, Mitsuki ults and wins. Yulie needs to haste up and go aggro, which presumably means waiting for doubles, then 2x Attacking, then resuming healing when not having a double. Once Mitsuki is low enough, Yulie goes in for attack -> Sacrifice on a double. Mitsuki also has some piddly tiny parasitic healing as well that probably doesn't matter much. I have no idea how credible this strategy is, so enjoy, Tide!
Xander (Fire Emblem Fates) vs Valeria (Suikoden)
I wonder if Paladin Xander would still win. Anyway, per S1 stat topic comments, I think that Valeria's S1 form if she wants to use it is mildly above average speed! And mildly more damaging than her S2 form? Not that it matters against 3.05 PDur...
Light
Black Frost (Shin Megami Tensei Devil Survivor) vs
Boco (Final Fantasy Tactics)What a cute matchup.
Um. I think Choco Cure keeps up with Black Frost's magic, if I do the math right? 48/60 Faith means Boco takes 80% normal damage from magic, BF deals 0.40 PCHP damage on average, so that's .32 PCHP. Elf has the generic HP average such that Choco Cure heals between .30 PCHP and .32 PCHP. So... BF's forward movement is slow here, barring a string of 3x hits. LUCKILY Freeze status to the recue?! While Freeze is way better when you're actually faster, all it takes is Boco to drop ~2 turns to get him killed here. Black Frost has enough MP for 10 Ice Dances, and that seems like enough... PROBABLY. but he loses horribly once the MP runs out, so close!
EDIT: Re Random... Hmm, I just grabbed a random generic with 60 Faith, but you're right, Elf let mages have 70 Faith. Using 48/65, it comes out to .295 PCHP on average, or .253 PCHP on 2x hits, .38 PCHP on 3x hits. So... Black Frost might actually need 3 dropped turns to win off Freeze, or excellent luck on repeated 3x hit strings, which would hand the match back to Boco. That said, while I agree Freeze is a bit shaky to hype, I wouldn't go so far as to call it useless - I see starting a battle as more like generic things-are-happening in a normal turn-based RPG, not something Fire Emblem esque where everybody happens to be able to "counter" an attack if they're within range, which would let the whole cast get a lot better off these "counters" acting as free turns whenever they get attacked. Fair enough you could see it that way, I suppose, which doesn't help Black Frost here, but arguably would help way more in generic slugfests, at least if interp'd that way.
Anyway, the subtle Faith adjustment is enough to switch my vote, even with mild Freeze hype still up.
