Futurama 2019 Week 3

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Ranger (Final Fantasy Tactics A2) vs Tetri (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)
Holly (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Zophar (Lunar 2: Eternal Blue)
Tibarn (Fire Emblem Series) vs Fou-lu (Breath of Fire IV)
Reicher Wallach (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy) vs Chezni (Paladin’s Quest)

Heavy

Zero (Mega Man X: Command Mission) vs Rabbid Luigi (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)
Nera Briscolleti (Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride) vs Corrin (Fire Emblem Fates)
Tana (Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones) vs Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII)
Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millennium) vs Elsa Eliane (Front Mission 4)

Middle

Freya Crescent (Final Fantasy IX) vs Elliot Craig (The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel)
Setsuna (I Am Setsuna) vs Lucas (Mother 3)
Crono (Chrono Trigger) vs Ursula (Final Fantasy IV: The After Years)
Nightburn Acklund (Wild ARMs 5) vs Shulk (Xenoblade Chronicles)

Light

Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII) vs Millie Chliette (Star Ocean: The First Departure)
Cai (Brigandine) vs Shura (Fire Emblem Fates)
Tear Grants (Tales of the Abyss) vs Lilianne Valendorf (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)
Otome Yanagiya (Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor 2) vs Cyrus Albright (Octopath Traveler)

[SnowFire]

Tibarn (Fire Emblem Series) vs Fou-lu (Breath of Fire IV)
Physical spoiler.
(Belated response to the Week 2 comments from Random & Jo'ou, but yes, Persona bosses are traditionally massively overrated in the DL thanks to incredibly badass buffs & debuffs that come down on turn 1.  I'm just not inclined to respect Tibarn's damage as THAT huge.  You'll note I did vote for Tibarn last week anyway!)

Heavy

Nera Briscolleti (Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride) vs Corrin (Fire Emblem Fates)
Levin Sword strats mean Kafrizzle is out.  That said, Corrin doesn't OHKO, so Nera can serve up 2x Thwack attempts against Corrin's averagish Res.  Kneejerking that status as turn 2 or so for the moment, so.
Tana (Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones) vs Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII)
Doubling interps ahoy!  Yuffie 2HKOs so Tana absolutely has to double herself and kill on turn 1 off 2x Javelin counters + 2x Silver Lance.  28 Spd / 27 Attack Spd to a 20.5 average will do that to 107% avg. speed Yuffie to me, though, so sure, Tana, but she does die horribly if you don't see her as doubling.  (You could also let Yuffie hit a weakness here, but eh, if FE Heroes is any indication, daggers / ranged ninja stuff don't hit weakness on fliers)  (EDIT: Right, evasion too, that could also tip it to Tana even if she didn't double.)

Middle

Freya Crescent (Final Fantasy IX) vs Elliot Craig (The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel)
Berserk is one of the few statuses Trails doesn't have and thus doesn't block.

Setsuna (I Am Setsuna) vs Lucas (Mother 3)
Uhh..  can anyone vote this?  They're both slugs, dunno whose speed to disrespect more, double turns seem like they help for breaking through this healing stall-off since both pack cheap healing that would outpace expensive offense like PK Love.  As best I can tell strictly off the stat topic, Lucas wants to fish for a really good disabling status off his status move, or possibly buff his physical and try to pressure Setsuna more.  Setsuna wants to wait for some powerful Singularity or else heal into a deadly Holy Light...  but that's problematic since Lucas reflects Lightning, and Lightning & Light elemental are the same thing in IAS, so arguably Setsuna is just stuck with Chakram beatdown?  idk

Light

Otome Yanagiya (Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor 2) vs Cyrus Albright (Octopath Traveler)
Faster, 2HKOs first through Cyrus's regen.  Cyrus might possibly 2HKO back with an Elemental Heavy Armor setup but you still need to see him as faster.

[Random Consonant]

Godlike

Ranger (Final Fantasy Tactics A2) vs Tetri (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)
Holly (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Zophar (Lunar 2: Eternal Blue)
Tibarn (Fire Emblem Series) vs Fou-lu (Breath of Fire IV)
Reicher Wallach (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy) vs Chezni (Paladin’s Quest) - Them's the breaks.

Heavy

Tana (Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones) vs Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII) - Yeah pretty much.
Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millennium) vs Elsa Eliane (Front Mission 4)

Middle

Freya Crescent (Final Fantasy IX) vs Elliot Craig (The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel) - Yeah can't say I feel like quibbling on how analogous berserk is to confuse today.  Freya has something like a five turn disadvantage here thanks to the starting regen and it doesn't even matter because CS2 basic physicals.
Setsuna (I Am Setsuna) vs Lucas (Mother 3) - Yeah I'm not inclined to see any of Setsuna's non-basic physical attacks getting past the lightning reflection so Lucas wins via turn 10 ID.
Crono (Chrono Trigger) vs Ursula (Final Fantasy IV: The After Years) - Sure.

Light

Cai (Brigandine) vs Shura (Fire Emblem Fates) - Maybe if Brig mages could actually cast spells after moving, I'd reverse this?  (Or if I saw Brig speed as anything but a series of tiebreaks, for that matter.)  I'm not at all inclined to see Cai going first or evading bow counters with Exa-Blast though.

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike

Ranger (Final Fantasy Tactics A2) vs Tetri (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)- I would imagine unless there is a good argument to her being statusable
Holly (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Zophar (Lunar 2: Eternal Blue)- Since Zophar has support, no support credit. Basically, Holly needs to 2HKO while avoiding the death limit. I think this comes down to: if Holly uses Magic Charge at the end of 1 turn, does carry over to the next. If so, she has it for me. If not, I think she falls a little short of gets FSes.
Tibarn (Fire Emblem Series) vs Fou-lu (Breath of Fire IV)

Heavy
Tana (Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones) vs Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII)- That evade is something else

Middle

Freya Crescent (Final Fantasy IX) vs Elliot Craig (The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel)
Crono (Chrono Trigger) vs Ursula (Final Fantasy IV: The After Years)- Similar speed, similar damage...but Ursula resists Crono's best heavily
Nightburn Acklund (Wild ARMs 5) vs Shulk (Xenoblade Chronicles)- I can vote on this, but Shulk ?

Light

Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII) vs Millie Chliette (Star Ocean: The First Departure)
Tear Grants (Tales of the Abyss) vs Lilianne Valendorf (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)- I guess Tear is considered Light due to casting speeds?

[superaielman]

Did FF7 Throw check evasion?

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

No, but it's also not much above half the damage dealt by Conformer. It's not a very good option.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Holly (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Zophar (Lunar 2: Eternal Blue) - EBO.
Tibarn (Fire Emblem Series) vs Fou-lu (Breath of Fire IV) - Different tiers of Godlike entirely.

Tana (Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones) vs Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII) - Not really close at all to me. I don't think I see shurikens or Throw as hitting weakness against Tana to boot.

Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII) vs Millie Chliette (Star Ocean: The First Departure) - This fails really hard.
Tear Grants (Tales of the Abyss) vs Lilianne Valendorf (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy) - I actually donno. Tear's closer to full healing is really expensive and TotA casting times suck -ass-. She may have some Water/Ice resistance, of course, but... I'll scry stat topics later for this.

[Tide]

Godlike

Sucks

Heavy

Tana (Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones) vs Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII) - Seems pretty obvious? Especially if you don't really have as much respect for FF7 speed in practice (I don't). Not sure a Limit matters here either. It will probably hit through Evade, but doubt its enough.
Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millennium) vs Elsa Eliane (Front Mission 4) - Negatis. You could argue its analogous to Systems Shut Down which Elsa has some Resistance for. But Negatis is like...90%+ on base. Soooooo kinda doubting that matters.

Middle

Freya Crescent (Final Fantasy IX) vs Elliot Craig (The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel): To see Elliot winning this, he has to a) Go first, b) Have Nocturne Bell succeed c) Have Nightmare convert itself into some form of useful status. There's only 2 or 3 there that would work (Burn, Freeze, Petrify) there. Due to the recovery after using a Craft, there's no way Freya doesn't get her turn after waking up. At which point, Luna crushes Elliot's hopes and dreams since CS2 physicals are amazingly bad. That's a *lot* of calls to go his way.
Nightburn Acklund (Wild ARMs 5) vs Shulk (Xenoblade Chronicles) - Think so. Nightburn 3HKOs with Dual Impulse and 4-3s average. However Shulk's HP is only 90% so Dual Impulse actually comes really close to 2HKOing (deals 98% looking at just HP - Shulk's above average Def likely pushes it back 3-4% more). This is kind of a problem because Nightburn doesn't need to use another tech after - he can just go for a base physical (4HKOs) and avoid triggering Shulk's limit. That's not enough time really for Shulk to build up any meter for a Talent Art if you see Talent meters starting at zero. He could maybe stall a turn with Light Heal, but then Nightburn will double turn around this point so that seals the argument shut.   

Light
Tear Grants (Tales of the Abyss) vs Lilianne Valendorf (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy) - This is actually an interesting Light match. Holy crap, how did that happen. I think Lily has this one but gonna need like Dhyer/NEB math to hash it out. Assuming Lily blocks Sleep (cause if she doesn't, Nightmare is basically GG), she and Tear will likely go at around the same time. However, Tear doesn't block Slow (Note the stat topic says nothing and the comprehensive list of stat blocking doesn't even have TotA listed) so instead of doing Frozen Sweets, she does Frozen Cannon instead. That should stall Tear long enough both in casting and turn speed for more Mega Rainy Spears to hit and likely kill before a second heal. Tear does seem to have some Water resist but it's only 10% - I'm doubting this matters much.

[Pyro]

Godlike

Ranger (Final Fantasy Tactics A2) vs Tetri (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)
Holly (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Zophar (Lunar 2: Eternal Blue)
Tibarn (Fire Emblem Series) vs Fou-lu (Breath of Fire IV)
Reicher Wallach (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy) vs Chezni (Paladin’s Quest): The psychotic physical damage reflection probably won't cut it even with def buffing and constantly full healing, since at some point he'll get Broken and KO'd.

Heavy

Zero (Mega Man X: Command Mission) vs Rabbid Luigi (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)
Nera Briscolleti (Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride) vs Corrin (Fire Emblem Fates)
Tana (Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones) vs Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII)
Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millennium) vs Elsa Eliane (Front Mission 4)

Middle

Freya Crescent (Final Fantasy IX) vs Elliot Craig (The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel)
Setsuna (I Am Setsuna) vs Lucas (Mother 3)
Crono (Chrono Trigger) vs Ursula (Final Fantasy IV: The After Years)
Nightburn Acklund (Wild ARMs 5) vs Shulk (Xenoblade Chronicles)

Light

Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII) vs Millie Chliette (Star Ocean: The First Departure)
Cai (Brigandine) vs Shura (Fire Emblem Fates)
Tear Grants (Tales of the Abyss) vs Lilianne Valendorf (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)
Otome Yanagiya (Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor 2) vs Cyrus Albright (Octopath Traveler)

[Dhyerwolf]

Light
Tear Grants (Tales of the Abyss) vs Lilianne Valendorf (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy) - This is actually an interesting Light match. Holy crap, how did that happen. I think Lily has this one but gonna need like Dhyer/NEB math to hash it out. Assuming Lily blocks Sleep (cause if she doesn't, Nightmare is basically GG), she and Tear will likely go at around the same time. However, Tear doesn't block Slow (Note the stat topic says nothing and the comprehensive list of stat blocking doesn't even have TotA listed) so instead of doing Frozen Sweets, she does Frozen Cannon instead. That should stall Tear long enough both in casting and turn speed for more Mega Rainy Spears to hit and likely kill before a second heal. Tear does seem to have some Water resist but it's only 10% - I'm doubting this matters much.

Slow kicks in turn 3 with it's 40% hit rate, and is a little slow on RT. Also, I don't even think it 3HKOs Tear before considering the crappy Ice/Water res, so Tear just 3HKOs.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike

Holly (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Zophar (Lunar 2: Eternal Blue): Holly needs three turns to kill Zophar, and I'm pretty sure I vote by a Zophar interp that only gives her one.
Tibarn (Fire Emblem Series) vs Fou-lu (Breath of Fire IV): tbh I'm not sure Tibarn takes this even if Fou-Lu had average physical susceptibility. As is, *cue Duck Hunt theme*

Heavy

Zero (Mega Man X: Command Mission) vs Rabbid Luigi (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle): Zero can do a whole lot to Rabbid Luigi on one turn but not OHKO and he doesn't even tickle RL with anything short of a Hyper Mode Action Trigger.
Tana (Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones) vs Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII): Yeah thrown Hand Axes/Javelins are a thing, Yuffie does not deserve hype for weakness-hitting here. Really doubt Yuffie can handle this otherwise, evade does a number on everything but the limits and Tana can dodge the worst of those.

Middle

Crono (Chrono Trigger) vs Ursula (Final Fantasy IV: The After Years): Crono barely avoids being 3HKOed and barely avoids being 4-3'd with Rainbow (more than barely if you take Ursula at the lower listed value to be fair). He 3HKOs with Rainbow!Confuse (lightning res means Luminaire is out). Not what I was expecting I'll admit.
Nightburn Acklund (Wild ARMs 5) vs Shulk (Xenoblade Chronicles): Sure I'll throw in a vote backing Tidelogic.

Light

Cai (Brigandine) vs Shura (Fire Emblem Fates): Shura 4HKOs but... does manage to dodge once even if Cai is given half an A rank of credit for lowering Shura's evade, and counters Exablast as Random mentions. Cai can get around counters with Geno spells but dear god what those do to his MP, no. He'll 3HKO with that strategy (so 4HKO through evade) but doesn't actually have the MP for four spells
Tear Grants (Tales of the Abyss) vs Lilianne Valendorf (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy): I... kinda think Lily, doesn't Rainy Mega Spear just tie up Tear's healing forever? Lily kills before Tear's third turn and I'm just not seeing where Tear makes headway healing against timed cards. I'm not inclined to disrespect TotA caster speed as much as Snow offhand, buuut probably enough that "heal until Lily runs out of SP" isn't an option. Don't see Tear's supposed ice resist (besides an accessory, which no) and 70% healing just isn't cutting it here. Might be missing something though?

[Dhyerwolf]

I could be wrong, but I thought tying Tear up in healing just meant that she would eventually get an Overlimit? Tear would likely also use the much cheaper 60% healing.

[Dark Holy Elf]

I entirely forgot Overlimit is a thing! It was almost FF9-trance like for how little it came up in-game. Any read on how quickly that builds? I'd strongly kneejerk that Lily procs Break before then, though Break miight not instantly win her the fight depending on how the timed cards line up?

60% healing feels like it's really pushing it. Rainy Mega Spear does >60% to average over time and Tear is like 90% HP / average MDef / no ice res that I saw.

[Tide]

How were the armor slots set up in TotA? I thought it was 1 arm, 1 Head, 1 body gear - the stat topic lists some common gloves/female equip that gives Tear 5% Water Res each. I can see discounting those (especially the gloves if its shared), but we let FFTers get the passive effects of whatever equips they use; feels more consistent.

Also, I thought overlimits built up pretty slowly. Like it rarely matters unless the match becomes a stallfest kind of slow. And even though Frozen Cannon only has a 40% chance of hitting (the stat topic didn't list the success rate IIRC), I'm not sure how Tear recovers from that when it hits. Lily's going to get a few shots at it and Tear's risking death from Timed Card enchants if she isn't healing.

[superaielman]

Godlike

Ranger (Final Fantasy Tactics A2) vs Tetri (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)- Tetri is too smashy for Ranger to handle.
Tibarn (Fire Emblem Series) vs Fou-lu (Breath of Fire IV)- Ugly.

Heavy

Heavy

Tana (Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones) vs Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII)-Throw ignores evade and throw+L1 limit should kill Tana. I don't think she has any way to avoid that. (For what it's worth I don't see throw hitting a weakness unless it's from a game where throw has a specific element, but that's not the case here. )
Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millennium) vs Elsa Eliane (Front Mission 4)- Negatis. Even if you don't see that working, go first and smash with Legeon should do the job. Elsa doesn't have Last Stand, Escape or any of the nasty defensive skills that would give her a chance here.

Middle

Crono (Chrono Trigger) vs Ursula (Final Fantasy IV: The After Years)- Should win on the average of assumptions. Crono needs a physical 3HKO here and it needs not be stymied by a double or Chakra at the wrong time.  If you see Crono resisting light elemental attacks that changing things, but I don't.

Light

Tear Grants (Tales of the Abyss) vs Lilianne Valendorf (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)- I am inclined to see Tear as more vunerable than the fighters to break; mages are sitting ducks in TotA when casting spells and timed cards are the sort of thing that give them all kinds of problems. If she gets an overlimit this is a horrible slaughter- Overlimit grants break immunity in TotA- but she won't last that long.

Overlimit's not really relevant here. Not only does it fill up slowly, but the quickest way to fill it up is by using multihit physical attacks. Sitting around and healing isn't going to do that.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Tide: Oh okay I missed that post, I just searched for 10% res and didn't find anything legal; I see what you mean now. Okay that makes surviving with the healing more practical. I remain extremely skeptical that Overlimit kicks in before Break, though.

[Dhyerwolf]

I did forget about Break, which could certainly swing it in the opposite direction.

Also can't remember the legality behind Tear's pendant, which would help her on MDef (not that I was considering it).

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Ranger (Final Fantasy Tactics A2) vs Tetri (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)- iii
Holly (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road)- i vs Zophar (Lunar 2: Eternal Blue)- ii
Tibarn (Fire Emblem Series) vs Fou-lu (Breath of Fire IV)- iiiiiii
Reicher Wallach (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)- ii vs Chezni (Paladin’s Quest)

Heavy

Zero (Mega Man X: Command Mission) vs Rabbid Luigi (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)- i
Nera Briscolleti (Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride)- i vs Corrin (Fire Emblem Fates)
Tana (Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones)- iiiiii vs Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII)- i
Rune Walsh (Phantasy Star IV: End of the Millennium)- iii vs Elsa Eliane (Front Mission 4)

Middle

Freya Crescent (Final Fantasy IX)- iiii vs Elliot Craig (The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel)
Setsuna (I Am Setsuna) vs Lucas (Mother 3)- i
Crono (Chrono Trigger)- ii vs Ursula (Final Fantasy IV: The After Years)- ii8:10 AM] BOTRPBot: @CmdrKing rolled 2.
Nightburn Acklund (Wild ARMs 5)- ii vs Shulk (Xenoblade Chronicles)

Light

Selphie Tilmitt (Final Fantasy VIII)- ii vs Millie Chliette (Star Ocean: The First Departure)
Cai (Brigandine) vs Shura (Fire Emblem Fates)- ii
Tear Grants (Tales of the Abyss)- i vs Lilianne Valendorf (Mana Khemia 2: Fall of Alchemy)- iii
Otome Yanagiya (Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor 2)- i vs Cyrus Albright (Octopath Traveler)