Futurama 2020 Season 2, Week 3

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Repede (Tales of Vesperia) vs Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III)
Luca Blight (Suikoden II) vs Jowy Atreides (Suikoden II)
Nyarlathotep (Pesona 2) vs Kraken (Final Fantasy III)
Gadgeteer (Wild ARMs XF) vs Yokai (Bravely Second: End Layer)

Heavy

Rolf Landale (Phantasy Star II) vs Claude von Riegen (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
Hugo (Suikoden III) vs Elize Lutus (Tales of Xillia)
Adelbert Steiner (Final Fanasy IX) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
Umi (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Rabbid Luigi (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)

Middle

Messam Elmdore (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Clarine (Fire Emblem: Sealed Sword)
Xander (Fire Emblem Fates) vs Rabbid Mario (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)
Edge Maverick (Star Ocean The Last Hope) vs Setsuna (I Am Setsuna)
Vivi Ornitier (Final Fantasy IX) vs Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII)

Light

Tin Man (The Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Rebecca Streisand (Wild ARMs 5)
Adray Lasbard (Star Ocean Till the End of Time) vs Lucia (Shadow Hearts Covenant)
Hubert von Vestra (Fire Emblem: Three Houses) vs Rude (Final Fantasy VII)
Reyna (Eternal Poison) vs Kamil (The 7 th Saga)

[Random Consonant]

Godlike

Repede (Tales of Vesperia) vs Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III) - Yeah I dunno, I share Elfboy's complaints about Repede's invincocheese but a FS will probably happen sooner rather than later, sigh.
Luca Blight (Suikoden II) vs Jowy Atreides (Suikoden II)
Nyarlathotep (Persona 2) vs Kraken (Final Fantasy III) - I don't really have a great sense of Nyarlie's durability, Kraken does a lot of damage and there's decent enough reason not to take that HP at face value but at the same time I'm not sure if it can be seen as low enough for Kraken to two-round, so whoever goes first wins since Nyarlie probably 3HKOs Kraken himself.  Really wish we had better P2 boss notes.

Heavy

nope

Middle

Messam Elmdore (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Clarine (Fire Emblem: Sealed Sword) - No Blood Suck of course (seriously every time you hype worse-than-useless ingame boss status a baby chocobo cries) but Muramasa ignoring Faith and evade doesn't seem like what Clarine wants to deal with here, and since she's not countering she has to 2HKO which would mean I'd have to buy both Elmdor being that frail and Clarine doubling and since Elmdor is pre-Thief Hat I'm not sure I'm willing to make both calls, someone convince me. e: good enough for me

Light

Tin Man (The Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Rebecca Streisand (Wild ARMs 5) - Rebecca kind of bad at stats.
Hubert von Vestra (Fire Emblem: Three Houses) vs Rude (Final Fantasy VII) - Not really thinking about this too hard and not really willing to respect Rude any.

[Pyro]

Godlike

Repede (Tales of Vesperia) vs Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III): No vote on the Good Dog.
Luca Blight (Suikoden II) vs Jowy Atreides (Suikoden II): I don't know. I suppose Joey gets 2 shots off and wins?
Nyarlathotep (Pesona 2) vs Kraken (Final Fantasy III): Tentacles.
Gadgeteer (Wild ARMs XF) vs Yokai (Bravely Second: End Layer): Physical instant death.

Heavy

Rolf Landale (Phantasy Star II) vs Claude von Riegen (Fire Emblem: Three Houses): Can't vote till I play 3H.
Hugo (Suikoden III) vs Elize Lutus (Tales of Xillia): Hugo's sleep isn't likely to be a signifant factor because of his limited shots, her status resistance, and her status immunity skill. His magic damage is pointless but his physical is the way to go. Elize is stuck with her dark magic and has to eat through his HP with it if ahe wants to keep up her arts? But with her various defensive games she can probably pull that off. I won't vote one way or another unless others do. Didn't realize Xillia playership was so low.
Adelbert Steiner (Final Fanasy IX) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
Umi (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Rabbid Luigi (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)

Middle

Messam Elmdore (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Clarine (Fire Emblem: Sealed Sword)
Xander (Fire Emblem Fates) vs Rabbid Mario (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)
Edge Maverick (Star Ocean The Last Hope) vs Setsuna (I Am Setsuna)
Vivi Ornitier (Final Fantasy IX) vs Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII): Hope can buff and heal his way past Vivi's MP?

Light

Tin Man (The Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Rebecca Streisand (Wild ARMs 5)
Adray Lasbard (Star Ocean Till the End of Time) vs Lucia (Shadow Hearts Covenant)
Hubert von Vestra (Fire Emblem: Three Houses) vs Rude (Final Fantasy VII)
Reyna (Eternal Poison) vs Kamil (The 7 th Saga)

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike

Repede (Tales of Vesperia) vs Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III)
Luca Blight (Suikoden II) vs Jowy Atreides (Suikoden II)- Yeah, likely gets off 2 shots
Nyarlathotep (Pesona 2) vs Kraken (Final Fantasy III)- I really hope there's another potential voter besides me
Gadgeteer (Wild ARMs XF) vs Yokai (Bravely Second: End Layer)

Heavy
Adelbert Steiner (Final Fanasy IX) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)- Wow, Steiner won a match.

Middle
Vivi Ornitier (Final Fantasy IX) vs Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII)- Uh, low status proc lolz

Light
Tin Man (The Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Rebecca Streisand (Wild ARMs 5)- Gut reaction
Adray Lasbard (Star Ocean Till the End of Time) vs Lucia (Shadow Hearts Covenant)- He statuses her before she kills him.

[SnowFire]

Luca Blight (Suikoden II) vs Jowy Atreides (Suikoden II)
Nyarlathotep (Pesona 2) vs Kraken (Final Fantasy III)
Ciato, save us from the tentacles

Heavy

Hugo (Suikoden III) vs Elize Lutus (Tales of Xillia)
Based off Pyro's musings, sounds like Hugo "heal-locks" with his physical, and has to wait for a "double" (which isn't really a think in Suiko 3's system) or some massive string of critz, or Elize gets a Mystic Arte or something.  Not sure if that actually lets her win consistently with Hugo's evade though.
EDIT: Reminding myself of the stat topic...  I'm inclined to be harsh on Auto Medicine and force it to deal with DL opponent's number of hits.  Hugo DOES have a multi-hit combo, but Elize is only getting in attempts at her own damage when she has a favorable Auto-Med string, and that happens much more rarely off only 3-4 hits than what the stat topic was thinking.  More generally, while I'm less skeptical of guard-for-the-win stratz than some, if Elize's guard strat is so good as to beat Hugo here I'm definitely suspicious osmething is up.  Elize clearly CAN win this if she gets enough good blocks, auto-meds, and hits on her own damage, but meh, not really inclined to tiebreak for that kind of strategy in a close fight.

Adelbert Steiner (Final Fanasy IX) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
Body Temp means that freeze is immuned...  but Nel probably just heals through Steiner's MP while immuring instant death.
Umi (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Rabbid Luigi (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)
Umi's ability to pulse all of her damage all at once seems like it's strong vs. infinite draining?  OTOH, there's that status game.  Will wait on Elf.
EDIT: If Elf's voting that way...

Middle

Messam Elmdore (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Clarine (Fire Emblem: Sealed Sword)
Crying baby chocobos.  (Might win without it anyway as Random noted.)
Xander (Fire Emblem Fates) vs Rabbid Mario (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)
Probably Xander?
Vivi Ornitier (Final Fantasy IX) vs Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII)
Some crappy status, yeah.

Light

Adray Lasbard (Star Ocean Till the End of Time) vs Lucia (Shadow Hearts Covenant)
Adray kind of a headache as usual.  Probably him but meh.  (He has either the WORST MP damage or the BEST MP damage depending on if you take into account postgame techs!)
Hubert von Vestra (Fire Emblem: Three Houses) vs Rude (Final Fantasy VII)
Counterattacks probably.  Although bad subtractive defense = getting doubled by a low-damage boss is more dangerous than usual, too...

[hinode]

Messam Elmdore (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Clarine (Fire Emblem: Sealed Sword)

Clarine's best case scenario is that you give her a C rank in Anima and you don't penalize her level for crappy staff exp, in which case she does 12/45.4=26.2% damage. Her worst case scenario is that you limit her anima rank to D and keep her level at 20/15 instead of 20/20 that strict equal exp would give her, in which case she does 9/45.5=19.8% damage.

Elmdor is pretty clearly above average speed (he's dead average to endgame PC but is fought before endgame, and especially before Thief Hats as Snowfire noted) and pretty easily 2HKOs her with ITD/ITE/AoE damage by pretty much any scaling. I don't remember MC's formula for converting speed from other games to FE right now, but I'll tentatively assume she doubles, since this is completely one-sided otherwise.

My respect for Elmdor's HP is probably lower than everyone except maybe Dhyer (somewhere between 0.5 and 0.6), but I also hold GBAFEs to a higher kill threshold due to how universal counters are, so she doesn't 2HKO even though I... probably give her the full 12 damage here.

Hubert von Vestra (Fire Emblem: Three Houses) vs Rude (Final Fantasy VII)

My memories of Rude's boss fights is pretty much blank so I'm going by the stat topic for him. Looking at that...Rude 1 is terrible, Rude 2 is optional and permanently missable (even though Gelnika itself isn't), Rude 3 has rubbish HP and hits the wrong defense, Rude 4 is optional and you only need to KO one Turk to finish the battle even if you want to steal from them, so I'm definately not taking it seriously in the DL.

So, let's look at Rude 3. Triplecast Spark is a 2HKO on average HP based on Meeple's numbers, but a high res Fire Emblem mage is a hilariously bad target to use multiple weak magic hits against. His physical is a 5HKO and his HP is comedically low.

[Dark Holy Elf]

I'm not fully certain how comfortable I am hyping Draw Out as ITD: it ignores one type of magic defence in FFT (faith), but not the other (Magic Defence Up, Shell). Probably the most fair thing to do is split the difference in some way and make it partially MDef-subject when facing other games. Not sure if that's enough to save Clarine from the 2HKO, and I'm inclined to agree that if she's 2HKOed she's... probably going to lose.

Votes later.

[Random Consonant]

I agree that seeing Draw Out as true ITD is bad but I think the simplest (...well, for a given value of simple) way to distinguish it is to say that it bypasses a dueler's base Mdef stat but not Mdef granted by equipment/skills/buffs.  I'm not entirely comfortable with the distinction and think it could be refined a bit but in this context I don't think there's enough room for refinement in a way that actually benefits Clarine since she has one of the lowest HP scores in the cast as is.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike

Luca Blight (Suikoden II) vs Jowy Atreides (Suikoden II): Pretty much a coinflip to me with where I see Luca's durability, I'll abstain since it's fuzzy.
Gadgeteer (Wild ARMs XF) vs Yokai (Bravely Second: End Layer): More instant death.

Heavy

Adelbert Steiner (Final Fanasy IX) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time): Kills his bad MP before he can do much, I presume.
Umi (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Rabbid Luigi (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle): Umi should be able to OHKO with Cute Pose + Insane + Elec Strike, and Siren's Call conveniently gets her one turn without Rabbid Luigi's defensive bullshit in place. If Rabbid Luigi's barrier is seen as blocking Siren's Call then he probably wins, since he 3HKOs with 70% petrify, so he can save the barrier for a turn when petrify fails. But if Siren's Call takes priority, then Umi wins as soon as she gets her second turn. I'm inclined to say Siren's Call wins, since it ignores normal immunity.

Middle

Messam Elmdore (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Clarine (Fire Emblem: Sealed Sword): Clarine pretty easily avoids being 2HKOed even with her MDef taken at half effect. And I'm more inclined to take Draw Out as fully MDef-subject than ITD (it is affected by the one thing in FFT actually called "Magic Defence"!).
Xander (Fire Emblem Fates) vs Rabbid Mario (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle): Well this is one-sided. Rabbid Mario runs into both Xander's pdur and counters since he's as short-range as Rabbids characters get. Stone helps a bit, but nowhere near enough.
Edge Maverick (Star Ocean The Last Hope) vs Setsuna (I Am Setsuna): Silence should tilt this, I would think.
Vivi Ornitier (Final Fantasy IX) vs Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII): Vivi mdur kinda bad, post-Faith Hope heal-locks him so doesn't have to worry about low-rate status (only Slow hits in 2 tries, and that's useless against someone who can multiact Haste+something else).

Light

Tin Man (The Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Rebecca Streisand (Wild ARMs 5): Probably.
Adray Lasbard (Star Ocean Till the End of Time) vs Lucia (Shadow Hearts Covenant): Probably.
Hubert von Vestra (Fire Emblem: Three Houses) vs Rude (Final Fantasy VII): Watch how weak you are.

[Luther Lansfeld]

Godlike

Repede (Tales of Vesperia) vs Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III)
Luca Blight (Suikoden II) vs Jowy Atreides (Suikoden II)
Nyarlathotep (Persona 2) vs Kraken (Final Fantasy III)
Gadgeteer (Wild ARMs XF) vs Yokai (Bravely Second: End Layer)

Heavy

Rolf Landale (Phantasy Star II) vs Claude von Riegen (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)
Hugo (Suikoden III) vs Elize Lutus (Tales of Xillia)
Adelbert Steiner (Final Fantasy IX) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
Umi (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Rabbid Luigi (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)

Middle

Messam Elmdore (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Clarine (Fire Emblem: Sealed Sword)
Xander (Fire Emblem Fates) vs Rabbid Mario (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)
Edge Maverick (Star Ocean The Last Hope) vs Setsuna (I Am Setsuna)
Vivi Ornitier (Final Fantasy IX) vs Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII)

Light

Tin Man (The Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Rebecca Streisand (Wild ARMs 5)
Adray Lasbard (Star Ocean Till the End of Time) vs Lucia (Shadow Hearts Covenant)
Hubert von Vestra (Fire Emblem: Three Houses) vs Rude (Final Fantasy VII) - We will burn together!
Reyna (Eternal Poison) vs Kamil (The 7th Saga)

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Repede (Tales of Vesperia) vs Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III)
Luca Blight (Suikoden II) vs Jowy Atreides (Suikoden II)
Nyarlathotep (Pesona 2) vs Kraken (Final Fantasy III)- I think Nyarly getting the first strike is enough but this is shockingly close, god damn Kraken is nuts.
Gadgeteer (Wild ARMs XF) vs Yokai (Bravely Second: End Layer)

Heavy

Rolf Landale (Phantasy Star II) vs Claude von Riegen (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)- no vote
Hugo (Suikoden III) vs Elize Lutus (Tales of Xillia)- no vote
Adelbert Steiner (Final Fanasy IX) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)
Umi (Cthulhu Saves the World) vs Rabbid Luigi (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)- no vote

Middle

Messam Elmdore (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Clarine (Fire Emblem: Sealed Sword)
Xander (Fire Emblem Fates) vs Rabbid Mario (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)- no vote
Edge Maverick (Star Ocean The Last Hope) vs Setsuna (I Am Setsuna)
Vivi Ornitier (Final Fantasy IX) vs Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII)

Light

Tin Man (The Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) vs Rebecca Streisand (Wild ARMs 5)- Probably?  I dunno, I forget how Rebecca's skill procs worked but she'd have to bet hella lucky to actually pull that off even if they were favorable.
Adray Lasbard (Star Ocean Till the End of Time) vs Lucia (Shadow Hearts Covenant)- push comes to shove he can stall out her SP.
Hubert von Vestra (Fire Emblem: Three Houses) vs Rude (Final Fantasy VII)
Reyna (Eternal Poison) vs Kamil (The 7 th Saga)- no vote

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Luca Blight (Suikoden II) vs Jowy Atreides (Suikoden II) - Not particularly close to me. 2HKOs, isn't one-rounded.

Rolf Landale (Phantasy Star II) vs Claude von Riegan (Fire Emblem: Three Houses) - This is really nasty for Rolf. He's hard-pressed to land a hit before Claude gets a turn and has problems avoiding counters with anything worth using - to make matters worse, Claude doubles and Fallen Star+Brave Bow double nearly crunches him down as is. This fight would actually be rather difficult for him if he HAD Megid. Without, uh yeah.
Adelbert Steiner (Final Fanasy IX) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time) - uh yeah

Mesdoram Elmdor (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Clarine (Fire Emblem: Sealed Sword) - I think Clarine has just enough speed to double Mesdoram under my views of her XP and weapon levels, which means she actually one-rounds to me? Avoids the whole discussion regarding Draw Out neatly.
Vivi Ornitier (Final Fantasy IX) vs Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII) - Vivi, actually not very good. The bad status doesn't really matter when he's slower and getting heal-locked as is as soon as Faith and Haste are up.

Adray Lasbard (Star Ocean Till the End of Time) vs Lucia (Shadow Hearts Covenant) - Yeah, I suppose.
Hubert von Vestra (Fire Emblem: Three Houses) vs Rude (Final Fantasy VII) - Rude is so good.
Reyna (Eternal Poison) vs Kamil Dowonna (The 7th Saga) - Oh, this fight. So, Reyna 3HKOs and, in theory, so does Kamil... but Kamil's so inaccurate, so he actually 4-5HKOs. And Reyna's faster, too. This said... four shots of full healing feel like they should be enough to whittle Reyna down before he gets his winning shot or a double, since Reyna himself shouldn't be fast enough for something like a 5-4 (I'm pretty sure Kamil isn't below 85% average CTB speed, for instance, and Reyna's barely above average speed).

[Cmdr_King]

will probably update tomorrow (or possibly friday sometime.)

Plan is to do rankings for Octopath and Three Houses and take any new player notes (off the cuff, Romancing SaGa 3) then as well.  If there's anything else that I've missed players on that might get over the threshold, let me know so I can add it as well.

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Repede (Tales of Vesperia)- iiii vs Chris Lightfellow (Suikoden III)
Luca Blight (Suikoden II)- i vs Jowy Atreides (Suikoden II)- iiiiii
Nyarlathotep (Pesona 2)- ii vs Kraken (Final Fantasy III)
Gadgeteer (Wild ARMs XF) vs Yokai (Bravely Second: End Layer)- iiiii

Heavy

Rolf Landale (Phantasy Star II) vs Claude von Riegen (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)- i
Hugo (Suikoden III)- i vs Elize Lutus (Tales of Xillia)
Adelbert Steiner (Final Fanasy IX) vs Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)- iiiiiii
Umi (Cthulhu Saves the World)- ii vs Rabbid Luigi (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)- i

Middle

Messam Elmdore (Final Fantasy Tactics)- iiii vs Clarine (Fire Emblem: Sealed Sword)- iii
Xander (Fire Emblem Fates)- ii vs Rabbid Mario (Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle)
Edge Maverick (Star Ocean The Last Hope)- i vs Setsuna (I Am Setsuna)- ii
Vivi Ornitier (Final Fantasy IX)- ii vs Hope Estheim (Final Fantasy XIII)- iiii

Light

Tin Man (The Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road)- iiiii vs Rebecca Streisand (Wild ARMs 5)
Adray Lasbard (Star Ocean Till the End of Time)- iiiii vs Lucia (Shadow Hearts Covenant)
Hubert von Vestra (Fire Emblem: Three Houses)- iiiiiii vs Rude (Final Fantasy VII)
Reyna (Eternal Poison) vs Kamil (The 7 th Saga)- i