Futurama type tournament- finals.

[superaielman]

Yuna (FFX) vs Orlandu (FFT)

Heavy:
Lassic (PS4) vs Frejyadour (S5)

Middle:
Hendrik (DQ11) vs Setsuna (Setsuna)

Light:
Thief(male)(FFT) vs Dorothea (FETH)


For my own reference, what the upgrade and downgrade pools would be:


Edelgard, Genevieve, Esmeralda, Profound Darkness, Lassic, Frejyadour

Erik, Eliza, Felix, Alicia, Hendrik, Setsuna

Therion, Talia, Lysithea, Sylvando, Thief, Dorothea

[superaielman]

Yuna (FFX) vs Orlandu (FFT)- Bad matchup for Yuna. Cid goes first and OHKOs.

Heavy:
Lassic (PS4) vs Frejyadour (S5)- Tenatively assuming that Sun doesn't hit a weakness. Freyjadour may still have an argument with dark blockers, so abstain for now.


Edelgard, Genevieve, Esmeralda, Profound Darkness, Lassic, Frejyadour- PD sweeps. I think Frejyadour stays down for me. Lassic might go up; it depends on how Edelgard does.


Erik, Eliza, Felix, Alicia, Hendrik, Setsuna- I can't vote on two of the people here. Erik/Eliza/Hendrik/Alicia are the ones I can vote on. Eliza down I think.  No idea how Setsuna would do.

Therion, Talia, Lysithea, Sylvando, Thief, Dorothea- Therion>Talia>Sylvando>Thief. Thief is staying down regardless I think; his tricks are doing nothing of value here. Possible Sylvando has something that can annoy Talia but I suspect her healing and status immunity is enough to carry here. Doro might go up, can't say for sure.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Yuna (FFX) vs Cidolfas Orlandu (FFT) - Twinks for offense, goes first and should land the OHKO because Yuna pdur is pretty junky.

Lassic (PS4) vs Freyjadour Falenas (S5) - If you presume Frey hits weakness on Lassic, he actually should 4HKO at worst, because two Crimson Skies alone will hit for roughly 3.15x PC HP. However, this means he needs to double Lassic at least twice and he has only five charges on Light of Day: this wouldn't be enough for Hugo, whose healing was actually pretty dang fast, and it so won't be for Frey, who actually is kinda slow and not all that much faster than Lassic to begin with! To make matters worse, his mdur is actually below average (and S5 magic defense is very potent) unless he procs a magic resist, which... actually doesn't save him from being 2HKOed at all if it doesn't proc twice in a row! If you don't allow full levels on Royal Paradise and Untold Clarity, this may get even worse.

And no, Frey doesn't have Dark-resisting equipment. This could be a very different fight if he did.

Thief (male) (FFT) vs Dorothea Arnault (FETH) - Oh boy, charmed characters can still counter an enemy under the status, which... uh... is very, very bad for Thief, since Dorothea can't hit herself with any of her abilities. That and I may very well see Charm odds being affected by Doro's own rather high Charisma stat, which doesn't do Thief any favors. Considering Thief can only ever win if he lands Death Sentence to begin with (he will -never- outpace Renewal), uh yeah.

[SnowFire]

super: Unless I misread the votes from last round, I see 2 Hendrik votes (Elf, Random) and 1 Hahn vote (super), so shouldn't it be Hendrik in this week?

Yuna (FFX) vs Orlandu (FFT)
These days I'm pretty sure I would allow Bracers either for everyone or for no one which would hurt Orlandu (who cares he has Bracers initial equipment), but even with that hurting Orlandu's damage a bit, I presume he still has the KO.

Middle:
Hendrik (DQ11) vs Setsuna (Setsuna)
Well, Act 3 Hendrik wins for free, especially if allowed to equip an elemental resistance accessory.  His elemental resistances are quite good with Act III equipment and get better with just 1 equip, and Setsuna is mono-Light.  Double Up is also a free buff since Setsuna's physical is harmless.
Act 2 Hendrik...  loses Hurt Converter and will probably have worse elemental resistances?  But should still have some, and Magic Barrier is very good and ruins Setsuna.

Light:
Thief(male)(FFT) vs Dorothea (FETH)
Well, Thief's plan here is to charm Doro and then steal all her weapons while she's sitting there doing nothing.  He can get his Death Sentence proc at his leisure once Dorothea has no weapons remaining.  Checking, Charm lasts 32 clockticks, which means ~3.5 Thief turns.  Too bad Steal Weapon's hitrate is kinda garbo...   I'm a bit skeptical of 3H Charm hype being relevant here (Steal Heart is pretty much only affected by Zodiac, right?) but even with Thief going first and having decent HP, he's only stealing a single weapon per successful Steal Heart, so Dorothea probably gets enough damage in on the uncharmed turns.

EDIT: idk about TOO much "rotate classes hype", but yeah, even if held against a 20% higher killpoint as punishment to ensure characters don't do this lightly, Mortal Savant Dorothea has unstealable magic.  Granted, she might also get doubled...  but who cares because Levin Sword counters would ruin Thief if he attempts to slugfest without stealing the weapon, so yeah even if Thief hacks Steal Weapon's hit rate to 100% or something, he'd still lose vs. MS Dorothea.

Pools:
*Edelgard, Esmeralda, Freyjadour
Edelgard hits an Axe weakness on Esmeralda.  While Esmeralda probably KOs in one round, her attacks probably come spaced out, so she can only land a single move before Edelgard gets her turn...  and even if Raging Storm is sealed, it doesn't matter because a single axe hit breaks Esmeralda.  Edelgard should also have the damage to bust the Prince up.  Esmeralda horrifically murders the Prince.

I don't remember Genevieve well enough to vote.  So Edel > Esmeralda > Prince.

*Erik, Eliza, Felix, Alicia, Hendrik, Setsuna
Erik: I don't think anyone here OHKOs Erik, and he sets up an absolutely devastating turn 2 with Divide that easily kills these PCs.  (~2200 damage!)  Hendrik survives if he casts Buff and blocks instant death with Act III accessories...  barely...  but he is in so much trouble, he's heal-locked until a double which will come very quickly given the speed difference.  Not to mention that Erik can fish for other statuses if he wants after locking Hendrik into blocking ID.

Eliza's Exa-Blast and a counter should KO Felix, so he dies horribly, even if you see him doubling.  Which I probably don't, Eliza's AGI is good, probably good enough to stop that.  Eliza vs. Alicia is an interp headache on the order Heal vs. the counterattack happens, but inclined to tiebreak against Alicia in such a circumstance.  On the other hand, Setsuna's Luminaire avoids counters and unstoppably 3HKOs Eliza while keeping Setsuna healed up, and Eliza won't double in time.  Eliza sporting two types of damage is good vs. Hendrik since he has to pick whether to buff his physical defense or magic defense, and Eliza will just hit the other one, although it's also sandbagged by Hendrik's fire elemental resistance...  hmm.  On second thought, since I allow the one blocker, think Eliza's magic is nerfed hard enough Hendrik can survive and stall here, so Buff on his PDur is enough to defang Eliza's counters

Felix: Alicia needs to attack to Heal and that's very unwise vs. Felix's counters.  Felix's magic is pathetic and he's nearly tinking after Buff so Hendrik beats him.  Felix should OHKO Setsuna (and surely does if he gets a crit in any of his 8 attempts).

Alicia: The match vs. Hendrik takes ages.  After Buff, Alicia cannot really threaten Hendrik, but he will eventually run out of MP.  This almost never happens, but I think Hendrik takes the time to get fully buffed up, start fishing for defense-down procs with Scrap Mettle, and once it hits go for Atk+2 Gryfalcon Slashes.  Alicia's HP is a little less than average (0.99 PCHP by Meeple's numbers) but a full +2 Gryfalcon Slash with some crits vs. a defense-debuffed foe might OHKO, and even if it doesn't, will slowly push through Heal which is "only" 80% healing.  Alicia should be able to outlast Setsuna though.

Hendrik: Beats Setsuna.

Erik: 5-0
Hendrik: 4-1 (loses to Erik)
Eliza: 2-3 (beats Felix, Alicia)
Felix: 2-3 (beats Alicia, Setsuna)
Setsuna: 1-4 (beats Eliza)
Alicia: 1-4 (beats Setsuna)

Therion, Talia, Lysithea, Sylvando, Thief, Dorothea

Therion trashes everyone here.  He KOs Lys & Doro on turn 2 and the other three on turn 3, avoiding counter nonsense.  The only one who has a prayer is Sylvando, but DQ11 confusion won't waste the equivalent of Octopath BP I don't believe (i.e. Pep Powers and the like), so once Therion gets a normal turn, Sylvando will die horribly.

Thief gets trashed by most everyone here, although Talia is an amusing fight.  After eventually getting charmed, Talia is going to waste her MP full-healing and defense-buffing Thief and giving him Halo status.  While hilarious, her natural counters should still win the slugfest even after she loses her MP.  (EDIT: Right, not even that.  Well, Brigandine-less Talia would have a funny but winning fight, and she actually wins very cleanly.)

Talia curses that Levin Sword attacks outrange her counters, and Renewal messes with her ability to slugfest vs. the 3H ladies, so she loses those.  She has an interesting match with Sylvando... Sylvando's status is out, but he can still go for a slow buffing game, with the problem that his healing is seriously awful.  While Talia's damage is bad, I don't think it's THAT bad to let Sylvando get away with this, so sure she wins there.

Sylvando's questionable damage has trouble breaking through the ladies Renewal too, although at least he can avoid counterattacks with Gold Rush.  He isn't living long enough for some buffed-up Have A Ball plan.

Lysithea is just better than Dorothea who has trouble breaking through Lysithea's Renewal (and Lysithea even has a Crest of Charon!). 

Therion: 5-0
Lysithea: 4-1
Dorothea: 3-2
Talia: 2-3
Sylvando: 1-4
Thief: 0-5

[Random Consonant]

Godlike:
Yuna (FFX) vs Orlandu (FFT) - Really doubt Cid misses the OHKO yeah.

Heavy:
Lassic (PS4) vs Frejyadour (S5) - Yeah, Frejyadour really should not be faring any better than Hugo here.

Middle:
nope

Light:
Thief(male)(FFT) vs Dorothea (FETH) - Steal Heart is indeed only subject to Zodiac compat but that's where the good news for Thief ends, Steal Weapon's hit rate is bad enough even without taking Dorothea's modest evasion into account.

pools, sure, why not:

Edelgard, Genevieve, Esmeralda, Profound Darkness, Lassic, Frejyadour

PD sweeps, obviously.

Esmeralda hates this pool, Lassic is the only one who can't break her so she can probably outlast him but Edie/Gen all tear her a new one. e: oh I guess she can probably kill Prince first, that works.

Gen beats everyone who isn't PD, Edie/Prince don't get turns and Lassic doesn't have the durability to take Contaminate Energy -> Indiscriminate.

Edie wrecks Prince but gets outslugged by Lassic.  Maybe if I allowed more than one use of Raging Storm.

Lassic is beating Prince.

PD: 5-0
Genevieve: 4-1
Lassic: 3-2
Edelgard: 2-3
Esmeralda: 2-3
Freyjadour: 0-5

Abstain on the M/H pool

Therion, Lysithea, Sylvando, Thief, Dorothea

Thief gets swept, Therion sweeps, thief bookend pool, I see.  Sylvando pretty much breaks Renewal never so lol, Lysithea doubles Dorothea and Dorothea isn't so much more durable to offset that.

Therion: 4-0
Lysithea: 3-1
Dorothea: 2-2
Sylvando: 1-3
Thief: 0-4

[superaielman]

Thanks snowfire, missed those edits!

[074]

Godlike:
Yuna (FFX) vs Orlandu (FFT) - Goes first, OHKOs.  No amount of proxy cheese can save you from that.

Heavy:
Lassic (PS4) vs Frejyadour (S5) - Sucks for Frey.  He's average to below average by the stat topic (not sure if cast times are a thing in S5) and Suiko is turn-based, so I don't see any chances of him doubling, and PSIV weakness is only 1.5x in most cases.  The prince is only getting Lassic a bit below half before running out of gas with his good stuff, assuming his spells hit weakness.  It's an absolute curbstomp if they don't.

And Lassic 2HKOs with Anothergate.

Middle:
Hendrik (DQ11) vs Setsuna (Setsuna) - Setsuna just misses the 3HKO with Luminaire at base, and goes first but will not double.  Even with her being able to buff her damage, Hendrik's able to buff his defenses in turn, and I am convinced that she will easily run out of MP before she gets a kill.  This only gets worse if you allow him to apply his Lightning resist to her spells, at which point the gap only grows wider.

Light:
Thief(male)(FFT) vs Dorothea (FETH) - Thief's strat is to charm and steal.  However, I'm more seeing that Thief holds the advantage here; Thief has a turn speed advantage, movement advantage, and has more action flexibility on the basis of being able to move after acting.  What seals it to me, however, is this: Fire Emblem counters, to my recall, have never applied to stealing attempts.  (I'm curious if they apply to pure status, since if they don't, this rewrites my interp of FE countering ability entirely.  I guess I'll need to try making a status staff miss against a Bolting user at some point if there isn't another option.)  Thief kites until doubles, safely charms, steals, gets out, repeats until Dorothea has no weapons left.

[EDIT] god damnit I accidentally hit Quote.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Yuna (FFX) vs Orlandu (FFT): See Snowfire. While Cid's damage fluctuates a bit with one's views on accessories, it's not going to matter here.

Heavy:
Lassic (PS4) vs Frejyadour (S5): This seems pretty clearcut. Lashiec just 2HKOs Freyjadour and Frey doesn't have the stats to heal out of or generally deal with that. His only hope is to 2HKO first. Even with Sun hitting a 1.5x weakness (which I'd agree with), there's just no way.

Middle:
Hendrik (DQ11) vs Setsuna (Setsuna): This deserves a closer look later.

Light:
Thief(male)(FFT) vs Dorothea (FETH): Even if we assume the best-case scenario of Charm being unaffected by Charisma and Steal being uncounterable, Thief just isn't winning this. Steal Heart is a coinflip, and gives ~2.5 steal attempts. Steal Weapon is ~30% accuracy against Dorothea's evade. i.e. Thief gets less than one weapon per successful charm. And he needs to get six before Dorothea KOs him, which isn't happening in less than 4 attacks. Doesn't seem especially close.

[Tide]

Godlike:
Yuna (FFX) vs Orlandu (FFT) - You beat Yuna mainly by denying her a turn because going through 7+ Aeons is usually an impossible task for anyone. Orlandu does exactly that by being faster and OHKOing.

Light:
Thief(male)(FFT) vs Dorothea (FETH) - Echoing Snow and NEB here. Doro can't self target when charmed, so his best trick is kinda moot. He's never outslugging Renewal, so he's relying 100% on Assassin Dagger. Too bad Doro will still counter after an attempt and he doesn't have that many turns to work with before he's fried by Levin Sword zaps. Charm is about 50% and Assassin Dagger procs are like 19-20%, so it takes on average something like 10 turns before this happens and that's just not going to work. IIRC, you can't even steal equipped weapons in FE, so it's questionable whether or not that even works (I'm aware that's how it works in FFT). But even if you do and you somehow leverage this in Thief's favor, Doro can still change classes and raw magic in 3H can't be stolen.

[SnowFire]

Edited in some Pools votes for fun as well as Middle vote.  Not too surprising that I think Hendrik is a Low Heavy, but more surprising is that Dorothea might sneak up to being a Low Middle...  she's awful in the division but it does seem like Light has some real trouble with breaking Renewal + counterattacks.

[superaielman]

Talia is immune to charm so thief is very, very unhappy there. That entire pool takes turns beating thief viciously, which is a good thing. E: and brigandines can't be stolen.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Edelgard, Genevieve, Esmeralda, Profound Darkness, Lassic, Frejyadour

Agreed with PD sweeping. Esmeralda's the only one even worth thinking about; she will only be broken once in the fight (PD needs form 3 for Megid, and then can't hit anything on the alternate weakness set) but that alone takes out almost all her HP, and it's not as if PD isn't doing damage the rest of the time. The HP is just too high for anyone else to touch.

Genevieve sweeps the rest. She breaks Esmeralda turn 1, then does doubled Indiscrimate the turn after; words do not describe how gross that is. 4.82 PCHP by my numbers. She probably even gets another turn after that. Against Edelgard, her 1/3 evade puts any hope of an Edelgard quick kill out of reach, assuming Gen doesn't just go first and one-shot her (which she probably does). And Lashiec having two weaknesses against Indisc is gross.

Esmeralda sweeps the rest. vs. Edelgard... the former will Red Blade turn 1 (which presumably seals the counter as well as the possible Brave Axe). Edelgard responds by using some random combat art (Silver Axe Monster Breaker), instantly breaking, and then using Raging Storm + doubled Silver on her followup turn. That's 2.89 PCHP, no way I see that as enough. Esmeralda gets another turn and wins. Freyjadour's damage is just worse, and Lashiec has the wrong elements.

Lashiec vs. Edelgard is very close, assuming Edelgard quads. She can do 1.23 per turn plus a bonus 0.51 with Raging Storm, but probably gets 2HKOed. Is 2.9PCHP enough? Probably not?

Prince has no business in Godlike.

PD > Genevieve > Esmeralda > Lashiec > Edie > Prince. Not sure how I feel about Lashiec vs. Edie as duellers, they're both pretty close to the border. Edelgard really wants you to see Raging Storm as spammable.


Other pools later, hopefully.

[Pyro]

Yuna (FFX) vs Orlandu (FFT): Without the Bracer he can do 75% PCHP damage?

Heavy:
Lassic (PS4) vs Frejyadour (S5)

Middle:
Hendrik (DQ11) vs Setsuna (Setsuna)

Light:
Thief(male)(FFT) vs Dorothea (FETH): Her CHA wasn't that high. Sorrow.


For my own reference, what the upgrade and downgrade pools would be:

Pools are... a lot.

Edelgard, Genevieve, Esmeralda, Profound Darkness, Lassic, Frejyadour

Edelgard: I think she can kill Genevieve, Esmerelda is going to get Broken and rushed? Profound Darkness and Lassic munch her. Freyjadour can't OHKO and gets 2HKOd?
Genevieve: Contaminate Energy Annihilates Esmerelda. Profound Darkness takes a heavy hit and munches her, Lassic munches her, Freyjadour blitzes her.
Esmerelda: Profound Darkness munches her, Lassic hits her with his lance and breaks her, Freyjadour can't break her and gets annihilated
Profound Darkness: Munches Lassic and Freyjadour
Lassic destroys Freyjadour

Erik, Eliza, Felix, Alicia, Hendrik, Setsuna


Therion, Talia, Lysithea, Sylvando, Thief, Dorothea

[superaielman]

Champs: Orlandu, Lassic, Hendrik, Dorothea.


Biggest surprise this season was Thief's reign of terror. I am saddened by how much of light has problems with steal weapon+charm.