GODLIKE
Belial (WA4) (W) vs. Sephiroth (FF7) (L) - Seph can use Deen immediately but the damage on it is really poor. As noted above, it 4HKOs at best (so probably more like 6-7HKO for me). Belial durability isn't great, but even she can tank a couple of those. And her being like 150% faster than him means she'll 3-2 and Tank drop probably 2HKOs here. So uh...
HEAVY
Reclaimer Dragon (WA4) (W) vs. X (MMX:CM) (L) - Too much of a deficit for X to overcome. Their listed 1st turn speeds are 237% average and 95% average respectively. The turn order looks like this:
Reclaimer (42 CT)
Reclaimer (84 CT)
X (105 CT)
Reclaimer (126 CT)
Reclaimer (168 CT)
So Reclaimer gets an instant double, chews through X-Heart. X now gets his turn at 10% HP. What does he do? Even activating Hyper Armor, that only boosts his speed up to 147%. His next turn comes after another 68 ticks, meaning he's still giving away another double. He can't activate a AT since his first turn only gives him 25 WE and there's no way Reclaimer gets OHKO'd from a base physical. Hyper Armor DOES give X some semblance of evade, but Reclaimer has some accuracy and evade himself, so for X to take this, not only does he have to dodge the bullet TWICE, but then you have to see a 60% WE AT OHKOing Reclaimer. That's a lot of calls. Also, to add insult to injury here, X also needs to equip a POIZN Blocker, otherwise it's quite possible Toxic Breath just spoils X-Heart. If you apply penalties on status blocking, that further hurts X some more.
LIGHT
Ryudo (G2) (W) vs. Natan (SH3) (L) - Both 3HKO each other, but Ryudo is faster based on the numbers posted by Dhyer. Natan not being able to use his heavier techs here because they further slow him seals it.
Overall - Tourney was pretty good. I don't know if its the characters drawn but there were a lot of good matches. Mostly in Middle/Heavy, but a couple of interesting ones in Light too. There are some slower moments due to certain matches being repeats, but that's the nature of Double elimination. At least it only happened once before the finals and the match there ended up being a reversal thanks to Hatbot.
Also for my own amusement - Team Match looks to be:
Belial, X, Lich, Natan vs. Seph, Reclaimer, Byleth, Ryudo
Full analysis -
So team matches are often heavily focused on the Godlikes because, y'know, Power levels in godlike. No difference here. The catch is that Reclaimer is pretty ridiculous as a Heavy. Initial turn orders:
Belial (287) > Reclaimer (237) > Seph (150) > Belial > Reclaimer > Natan (101) > Byleth/Lich (Avg) > Ryudo (98) > Belial > X (95)
Belial has to open with Distortion. Anything else and Reclaimer just OHKOs her, and then, her team is really screwed. So she does that to save herself. The Reclaimer/Seph combo basically guarantees a kill on pretty much anything on the other team but I suspect what happens is Reclaimer hits Lich, then Seph flies. Belial gets another turn now and can hit one of Seph/Reclaimer but neither will go down to one hit. Let's say she hits Seph. In a 1v1, Belial wins against Reclaimer anyway, so might as well get rid of the one with MT. Problem though - Byleth can heal here. So even if she spends a turn to hit one of the bosses, Byleth will come in and undo lots of damage with Recover. So okay, that probably won't work. On the other hand, she can also eliminate one of the PCs in one turn with 4D Pocket. That can't be stopped either so she pockets...Byleth? Ryudo? Probably Ryudo since he has MT and will arm it. It's also the strongest MT on the team Sept. Then Reclaimer gets a 2nd turn and kills Lich. Natan and Byleth get turns but neither can do anything decisive. Byleth probably just heals whoever Natan hit. Belilal gets her 3rd turn and hits Seph. X FINALLY gets his turn, but can't do anything decisive turn one due to low WE. So he probably pokes Seph as well. Seph likely survives by the skin of his teeth, uses Supernova to effectively gut the rest of Belial's team. So now it's pretty much Belial versus the world.
The sad thing is, she *may* still have a chance at this. Belial kills Seph on the next turn she gets and at this point, that's probably it. Reclaimer is all ST so he alone cannot beat Belial as Belial 5-4s, meaning that it will never get a chance to actually hit Belial. I'm not even sure it OHKO's the Distortion (it auto activates Defender so it's durability is actually quite high) and it absolutely needs to. Otherwise, Belial just walls it and Byleth forever, with it, then attacks them when she doubles Reclaimer. Keep in mind, Natan and X still exist here - just greatly crippled. Byleth will probably need to take a few turns to kill both. If you give Belial the ability to Double 4D Pocket, she basically cruises since she can do that to Byleth, and at that point, as noted, she can solo Reclaimer on her own.
The complete lack of strong MT on team Seph outside of Ryudo is pretty fatal here. Seph has arguably the better team but they struggle to break through the Distortion with any semblance of speed. If Reclaimer opens with status through Slumber Fog, it has a decent chance of nailing one of X or Natan but...Natan can use Heal so it would have to hit Natan first to do anything of note. Wall also exists, but probably only prolongs the inevitable. Seph REALLY wishes Deen didn't suck so badly. They're really reliant on Ryudo to help them punch through the Distortion. Without him, I doubt they can make much headway, even if they kill everyone else (which they even do in my predicted scenario).
