King of RPGDL: Winners bracket 1

[DragonKnight Zero]

Match format, copy and pasted from last week -

- Though the teams are 3 members each, matches take place as a series of 1 on 1 bouts.  First bout starts with the first member of each team.  When one fighter is knocked out, the next member of the team in sequence steps up and the fight continues from that point.  Winner of the match is the team that knocks out all 3 of the other team's fighters.
- Each bout is timed.  After 50 turns (shared by both fighters) if neither fighter is knocked out a Time Over will be declared. Both will be considered defeated and the next bout will begin with the next members of each team.  Hopefully it's obvious but the timer does reset to full after any KO.
- A fighter who knocks out an opponent will receive a small amount of HP recovery.  This starts at 20%HP if winning in one action and scales linearly downward to 0.4% recovery for winning on turn 50.  Note that this winner's HP recovery is scaled to an average HP fighter.  To use the Wild ARMS 3 crew as an example.  Virginia would regain more life proportional to her max HP than Gallows and Clive would under equal win conditions.
- Other than this HP recovery, the winning fighter continues from where they left off.  HP, MP, skill charges, and other resources will remain depleted.  Meter gain, if applicable, also carries over.  So do all status effects and stat changes, positive or negative and their durations.  This is different from fighting games, which will clear all status buffs and debuffs between rounds.
- Turn order is reinitialized when a new fighter comes in.  This is for interpretation simplicity.  No initiative advantage from KO'ing an opponent with a counter, too bad.
- No dead team member bonuses or penalties.  The fights are 1 on 1 after all.
- There is a new voting option.  Double KO, if the match ends with a Time Over with the last member of both teams.  There are a number of options to handle this.  Decision (cast vote either way based on whatever personal criteria you please), Coinflip, or (my favorite comedy option) Reserves, which I will make a post in the nomination topic going into greater detail.

Heavyweight:

Team SMASH: Geno / Alexia / Zerase vs Team Surprisingly Deadly Thieves: Eric (DQ11), Therion (8PT), Morgana (P5)

Team Fliers: Nina (Breath of Fire 4), Sumia (FE Awakening), Rose (Legend of Dragoon) vs Team Sexy Beasts: Rei (BoF3), Nikki (MK), Kevin (SD3)

Lightweight:

Team Servants: Gremio (S1), Brey/Borya (DQ4), Jakob (FE Fates) vs Team Palmer: Olivier (WA3) / Linny (FM3) / Palmer

Team Isekai: Aurora (Child of Light), Frederick (Eternal Sonata), Rabbid Peach (Mario+Rabbids) vs Team Cats & Frogs Living Together: Cray (Breath of Fire 4), Lethe (FE9), Frog (CT

[Random Consonant]

Heavyweight:

Team SMASH: Geno / Alexia / Zerase vs Team Surprisingly Deadly Thieves: Eric (DQ11), Therion (8PT), Morgana (P5)

Holy Talismans (which glancing through guides seem like the best that should be DL legal to me regardless) only give 25% ID resist at most so yeah that's not good enough, and none of the other thieves have ID protection at all (P5 equipping for elemental resistance to try to reduce Geno Whirl's chances won't work here since Geno Whirl isn't elemental anyways).  Doubt Eric will go first after the speed hit to resist ID and he can't win in one turn if he doesn't opt for ID resistance.

Team Fliers: Nina (Breath of Fire 4), Sumia (FE Awakening), Rose (Legend of Dragoon) vs Team Sexy Beasts: Rei (BoF3), Nikki (MK), Kevin (SD3)

Rei crits Nina eventually, Sumia doesn't get OHKO'd and dodges turn 2 on average and takes out Rei, Nikki takes advantage of the fact that Sumia's at really low health and takes her out with something not all that taxing... but I assume the initiative reset means that Timed Cards also get cleared up which is pretty much the only chance that Team Beasts has to take out SP starting!Rose, as neither Nikki or Kevin have ID immunity.  (If Panther Beat doesn't get cleared up this is probably a walk, and Rose is pretty useless here without starting SP, so.)

Lightweight:

Team Servants: Gremio (S1), Brey/Borya (DQ4), Jakob (FE Fates) vs Team Palmer: Olivier (WA3) / Linny (FM3) / Palmer

oh good i actually have to figure out what olivier's hp is uh.  A very conservative estimate would put it at 1.15 PCHP and sees Gremio likely dead to POIZN.  This holds true on average as long as Olivier is seen as being above 1.01 PCHP for... all that I probably don't.  POIZN and Valiant, y'know.  Anyways if Gremio beats Olivier before dying to POIZN Team Servants should just win, Borya's offense is GT which Linny probably won't like one bit and isn't so bad that Linny can outslug and Palmer is just straight up owned by Bounce forever.  If he doesn't... well, I guess that depends on how well Jakob comes out after Linny (Tomebreaker should by all rights wreck Palmer's offense significantly since all he does is L2s unless you really want to be semantic about GUN, but it's not as free a win as Bounce.)  And considering the worst case isn't nearly as depressing as Team Dancer's best, well.

Team Isekai: Aurora (Child of Light), Frederick (Eternal Sonata), Rabbid Peach (Mario+Rabbids) vs Team Cats & Frogs Living Together: Cray (Breath of Fire 4), Lethe (FE9), Frog (CT)

[DjinnAndTonic]

Kneejerk thoughts because I don't have time to look stuff up:

Heavyweight:

Team SMASH: Geno / Alexia / Zerase vs Team Surprisingly Deadly Thieves: Eric (DQ11), Therion (8PT), Morgana (P5) - Does Team Thieves block ID? I feel like they don't, so I'd kneejerk that Geno just sweeps with that.

Team Fliers: Nina (Breath of Fire 4), Sumia (FE Awakening), Rose (Legend of Dragoon) vs Team Sexy Beasts: Rei (BoF3), Nikki (MK), Kevin (SD3) - if Rei can't OHKO Nina, then I think team Sexy Beasts just starts off on the back foot and can't outpace the Fliers.

Lightweight:

Team Servants: Gremio (S1), Brey/Borya (DQ4), Jakob (FE Fates) vs Team Palmer: Olivier (WA3) / Linny (FM3) / Palmer - who is Olivier WA3?

Team Isekai: Aurora (Child of Light), Frederick (Eternal Sonata), Rabbid Peach (Mario+Rabbids) vs Team Cats & Frogs Living Together: Cray (Breath of Fire 4), Lethe (FE9), Frog (CT) - Hmm... I think I'd allow Aurora to use her little wisp friend to slow down her foe's speed, at least on the first turn. And Cray is slow enough he might not get a first turn at that rate? The others fighters kinda trade off, I think, and since Team Isekai starts with an early lead, they probably take it.

[Pyro]

Team SMASH: Geno / Alexia / Zerase vs Team Surprisingly Deadly Thieves: Eric (DQ11), Therion (8PT), Morgana (P5): Need to know Morgana I think.

Team Fliers: Nina (Breath of Fire 4), Sumia (FE Awakening), Rose (Legend of Dragoon) vs Team Sexy Beasts: Rei (BoF3), Nikki (MK), Kevin (SD3): I think Rei tears Nina apart and it goes downhill for team fliers from there?

Lightweight:

Team Servants: Gremio (S1), Brey/Borya (DQ4), Jakob (FE Fates) vs Team Palmer: Olivier (WA3) / Linny (FM3) / Palmer

Team Isekai: Aurora (Child of Light), Frederick (Eternal Sonata), Rabbid Peach (Mario+Rabbids) vs Team Cats & Frogs Living Together: Cray (Breath of Fire 4), Lethe (FE9), Frog (CT): Aurora/Frederick/Rabbid Peach are all decentish in Light/Middle. Cray is ok. Lethe is a joke (?) and Frog is probably being overwhelmed here.

[SnowFire]

Djinn: DQ11 can block ID with an Act 3 interp, there are two accessories that offer 50% resistance so equipping two of them should immune it.  If you use an Act 2 interp like Random, then I'm not sure, but I don't think so.  You can get Skull Rings in Act 1/2 but I don't believe they're craftable en masse until Act 3.
EDIT: Looking things up, apparently some instant death resistance is buyable in Act 2.  Or at least I wrote this when I looked it up a year or so ago.  Too lazy to check details now though.

Team SMASH: Geno / Alexia / Zerase vs Team Surprisingly Deadly Thieves: Eric (DQ11), Therion (8PT), Morgana (P5)
I do let DQ11 block ID, but Geno is kinda a speedster himself and might actually go first here...  nah, wait, he doesn't, quick check says the Std. Dev of SMRPG is 5.2 so he doesn't hit the two-std-devs-over threshold.  While Geno Boost probably lets him win a slugfest anyway, Eric's own ID has a large chance of kicking in.  If he gets wounded, then the team heal will patch him up.  Alexia also probably gets ID'd.  Zerase then also dies, but even if Eric is wounded enough to be finished off by her, then that means he can just open with damage rather than going for divide, and I doubt a wounded Zerase (+victory heal) can solo everyone else.

If you take an Act 2 interp, then Geno probably just kills everyone!  Well, you might let Morgana partially block ID via a dark resistance accessory, but P5 accessories are so potent that the penalty for equipping one is gigantic, since you're giving up Auto-Rakukaja or something crazy.

Team Fliers: Nina (Breath of Fire 4), Sumia (FE Awakening), Rose (Legend of Dragoon) vs Team Sexy Beasts: Rei (BoF3), Nikki (MK), Kevin (SD3)
Yeah, Nina probably can't pressure Rei, and she gets heal-locked.  Not a BoF3 expert though.

Lightweight:

Team Servants: Gremio (S1), Brey/Borya (DQ4), Jakob (FE Fates) vs Team Palmer: Olivier (WA3) / Linny (FM3) / Palmer
Yep.

Team Isekai: Aurora (Child of Light), Frederick (Eternal Sonata), Rabbid Peach (Mario+Rabbids) vs Team Cats & Frogs Living Together: Cray (Breath of Fire 4), Lethe (FE9), Frog (CT
I don't really know Isekai well enough but they do seem dangerous from the stat topic.

[DragonKnight Zero]

Team Fliers: Nina (Breath of Fire 4), Sumia (FE Awakening), Rose (Legend of Dragoon) vs Team Sexy Beasts: Rei (BoF3), Nikki (MK), Kevin (SD3)  Looking up numbers in the stat topics, transformed Rei doesn't quite oneshot Nina.  And she's faster so she can healstall until a doubleturn or timeout and oops... forgot Rei has an argument for landing a critical hit before then.  Guess this doesn't favor team Fliers as much as I thought it would.  Though I'm not familiar enough with the other two to call it.

Team Servants: Gremio (S1), Brey/Borya (DQ4), Jakob (FE Fates) vs Team Palmer: Olivier (WA3) / Linny (FM3) / Palmer  Given how FF7 hit calculations work, Palmer's 50 Df% seemed to be more like 30% evade in practice.  And after mathing it out, 30% is close enough for gauging how much he'll dodge.

[superaielman]

Heavyweight:

Team SMASH: Geno / Alexia / Zerase vs Team Surprisingly Deadly Thieves: Eric (DQ11), Therion (8PT), Morgana (P5)- Eric eats ID, Therion is not especially threatening here. Morgana would have to be a Godlike to cover the rest of that ground which I really doubt based on the comments.

Team Fliers: Nina (Breath of Fire 4), Sumia (FE Awakening), Rose (Legend of Dragoon) vs Team Sexy Beasts: Rei (BoF3), Nikki (MK), Kevin (SD3)- One round Nina, clean up from there. Rose having no starting SP makes her pretty near useless.

Lightweight:

Team Servants: Gremio (S1), Brey/Borya (DQ4), Jakob (FE Fates) vs Team Palmer: Olivier (WA3) / Linny (FM3) / Palmer- Two of the three members of Team Palmer are utterly hopeless so surely this.

[Tide]

Heavyweight:

Team SMASH: Geno / Alexia / Zerase vs Team Surprisingly Deadly Thieves: Eric (DQ11), Therion (8PT), Morgana (P5)- Geno OCVs again probably.