Futurama 2023 Week 1

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Heat (Digital Devil Saga) vs Marisa Kirasame (Labyrinth of Touhou)
Lamington (Disgaea: Hour of Darkness) vs Ronin (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
Riou (Suikoden II) vs Ezel Granada (Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Endless Frontier)
Yuna (Final Fantasy X) vs Satanail (Star Ocean: The Last Hope)

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Tim (Brigandine: Legend of Runersia)
Mystic Knight (Final Fantasy V) vs Harbinger (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
Olberic Eisenberg (Octopath Traveler) vs Temenos Mistral(Octopath Traveler II)
Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) vs Xander (Fire Emblem Fates)

Middle

Empoleon (Pokémon) vs Minorio Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2)
Mallow (Super Mario RPG) vs Createur Rosenqueen (Rhapsody II: Ballad of the Little Princess)
Peter (Shining Force II) vs Rinkah (Fire Emblem Fates)
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Divine Punisher Shaman (Etrian Odyssey V)

Light

Thief (Final Fantasy V) vs Corselia (Suikoden Tactics)
Nanami (Valkyrie Profile) vs Amalia (Chained Echoes)
Primrose Azelhart (Octopath Traveler) vs Seraphina (Disgaea 5)
Umaro (Final Fantasy VI) vs Ivy (Fire Emblem Engage)

[074]

Godlike

Heat (Digital Devil Saga) vs Marisa Kirasame (Labyrinth of Touhou) - Master Spark can't hit Heat while the tentacles are up, which means she's screwed.  Bad luck on Marisa's part for sure.
Lamington (Disgaea: Hour of Darkness) vs Ronin (Etrian Odyssey Nexus) - Okay, will have to get to this one later but this is looking like a particularly rough matchup for Ronin.  Boss with notable damage cutting directly impacts Ronin's ability to upkeep via Bloodthirsty Blade, can't be statused out with any of their three options.  Ronin's skills being skills and not basic physicals mean that counters are avoided but that's not going to be enough in this case.  A possible argument could be made for Stone applying as the one Ronin status without a Disgaea analogue, but that one's flimsy on its own.
Yuna (Final Fantasy X) vs Satanail (Star Ocean: The Last Hope) - going to have to math this out considering I don't allow Aeons.

Heavy

Mystic Knight (Final Fantasy V) vs Harbinger (Etrian Odyssey Nexus) - Aaand Harbinger runs into its bane.  Accurate status.
Olberic Eisenberg (Octopath Traveler) vs Temenos Mistral(Octopath Traveler II)
Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) vs Xander (Fire Emblem Fates) - this is a hilariously gross mismatch.  Kyra eats opponents like this for breakfast.

Middle

Empoleon (Pokémon) vs Minoriko Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2) - kneejerking.  Minoriko makes sport of Empoleon's SP attacks but LoT2 has no real answer for Confuse, so it's questionable whether she'll even get a turn past her first.
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Divine Punisher Shaman (Etrian Odyssey V) - Divine Punisher has good MDUR even before buffing, goes first, and can healstall in order to wait out any thoughts of Miori Shirt cheese.  The fact that an ice-aspected Mana Oracle will kill Yukiko in one shot without any boosts just seals it.

Light

Thief (Final Fantasy V) vs Cordelia (Suikoden Tactics) - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Heat (Digital Devil Saga) vs Marisa Kirasame (Labyrinth of Touhou)- No vote
Lamington (Disgaea: Hour of Darkness) vs Ronin (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)- No vote
Riou (Suikoden II) vs Ezel Granada (Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Endless Frontier)- This one is kinda weird, like it's not implausible that Riou could goose him down to where he could bypass his scariest phases but that's a lot of juggling healing and hoping for evades.
Yuna (Final Fantasy X) vs Satanail (Star Ocean: The Last Hope)

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Tim (Brigandine: Legend of Runersia)- No vote
Mystic Knight (Final Fantasy V) vs Harbinger (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)- No vote
Olberic Eisenberg (Octopath Traveler) vs Temenos Mistral(Octopath Traveler II)- No vote
Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) vs Xander (Fire Emblem Fates)

Middle

Empoleon (Pokémon) vs Minorio Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2)- No vote.
Mallow (Super Mario RPG) vs Createur Rosenqueen (Rhapsody II: Ballad of the Little Princess)- Kneejerk.  Crea is faster, and can drop an Attack Down on him to make him use spells, which should let her win the healing war?  It's hard the gauge since Rhapsody MP is... special (it's money) but.
Peter (Shining Force II) vs Rinkah (Fire Emblem Fates)
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Divine Punisher Shaman (Etrian Odyssey V)- No vote

Light

Thief (Final Fantasy V) vs Corselia (Suikoden Tactics)
Nanami (Valkyrie Profile) vs Amalia (Chained Echoes)- no vote
Primrose Azelhart (Octopath Traveler) vs Seraphina (Disgaea 5)- Alas for Seraphina, too straight to know how to seduce women for massive damage bonuses.
Umaro (Final Fantasy VI) vs Ivy (Fire Emblem Engage)- Not 100% on this one, but I think she can pull off a 3HKO with Elsurge and not eat one back?

[DjinnAndTonic]

Godlike

Heat (Digital Devil Saga) vs Marisa Kirasame (Labyrinth of Touhou) - Tanks a Master Spark with Tentacles and that's all Marisa can do.
Lamington (Disgaea: Hour of Darkness) vs Ronin (Etrian Odyssey Nexus) - The durability and status resistances kinda spoil Ronin's tricks
Riou (Suikoden II) vs Ezel Granada (Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Endless Frontier)
Yuna (Final Fantasy X) vs Satanail (Star Ocean: The Last Hope) - Aeon Parade does its thing, but it's close enough that it could go either way. Faize having 4 meatshields of his own makes it questionable if Yuna takes this if you don't allow the optional Aeons, and obviously Aeonless doesn't stand a chance...

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Tim (Brigandine: Legend of Runersia)
Mystic Knight (Final Fantasy V) vs Harbinger (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
Olberic Eisenberg (Octopath Traveler) vs Temenos Mistral(Octopath Traveler II) - Cute. Looks like Temenos can 2HKO, while Olberic 3HKOs... Olberic does go first, so he may be able to boost and 2HKO, but he just misses it by the damage average I was using.
Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) vs Xander (Fire Emblem Fates) - Xander tinks off of Kyra's def-buffing game.

Middle

Empoleon (Pokémon) vs Minorio Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2) - Minoriko outspeeds and buffs her res to the point that Empoleon's special attacks don't do anything. Empoleon has to buff with Swords Dance or just try to whittle down Minoriko with pitiful Drill Peck damage... while Minoriko still easily 3HKOs.
Mallow (Super Mario RPG) vs Createur Rosenqueen (Rhapsody II: Ballad of the Little Princess) - Assuming you allow Crea her unique monster summons, she's got a full suite of turn 1-2 status ailments and enough magic resistance that Mallow isn't 2HKOing
Peter (Shining Force II) vs Rinkah (Fire Emblem Fates) - Kneejerk Peter respect
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Divine Punisher Shaman (Etrian Odyssey V)

Light

Thief (Final Fantasy V) vs Corselia (Suikoden Tactics)  - Thief goes first and eventually doubles, but I think Corselia 4HKOs Thief's pitiful MDur after she lays down Water tiles. Not sure, especially since she only has 3 shots of her attack magic and then has to finish up with staff whacks.
Nanami (Valkyrie Profile) vs Amalia (Chained Echoes)  - Surely Amalia beats a VP1 Mage?
Primrose Azelhart (Octopath Traveler) vs Seraphina (Disgaea 5) - Allowing Primrose her Allure Summon she can 3-round Sera. Sera's Evade is good enough to make that 4 rounds. Sera 5HKOs average, but Primrose's durability is trash, so it's probably a 4HKO. But Primrose goes first. Maybe Sera's Counters or not allowing Allure would swing this?
Umaro (Final Fantasy VI) vs Ivy (Fire Emblem Engage) - Kneejerk anti-Umaro vote

[SnowFire]

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Tim (Brigandine: Legend of Runersia)

Olberic Eisenberg (Octopath Traveler) vs Temenos Mistral(Octopath Traveler II)
Well...  Olberic seems to win during the daytime.  If we assume ~3000 as the 8PT2 damage average and 7500 as the average killpoint, then Tenemos's 2-turn of 6577 doesn't match Olberic's 1.19 Elemental Defense.  If the Def Down is +50% damage like 8PT1...  then that does do the trick during nighttime, as that'd be 1.30 PCHP.

Quick question for Pyro: Is Temenos's Rise Again like Primrorse's Encore and the revival doesn't get any BP back?  Which would make it not too helpful when outsped in a duel since it means that their opponent will just immediately go first the next turn and bonk his revived self back down again.  So Temenos absolutely needs to win on turn 2 given his bad speed.

Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) vs Xander (Fire Emblem Fates)

Middle

Peter (Shining Force II) vs Rinkah (Fire Emblem Fates)

Light

Primrose Azelhart (Octopath Traveler) vs Seraphina (Disgaea 5)
Don't know D5, but I will say that I don't think Primrose summons (if allowed) would trigger counterattacks in 8PT, so probably wouldn't here.  (And Primrose will be saving up for a single mega-spell that she won't cast until it finishes the fight, presumably.)
Umaro (Final Fantasy VI) vs Ivy (Fire Emblem Engage)
Elsurge is clearly non-elemental, so yeah.  The way you beat base Ivy (no Lyn) is just by doubling her, and Umaro shouldn't.

[Random Consonant]

Godlike

Riou (Suikoden II) vs Ezel Granada (Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Endless Frontier) - Skeletor doesn't take a Forgiver Sign without support credit, but I'm willing enough to give him that.  Riou is certainly not chipping around horrendous murder range any time soon.

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Tim (Brigandine: Legend of Runersia) - The evade's probably too much.
Mystic Knight (Final Fantasy V) vs Harbinger (Etrian Odyssey Nexus) - One way or another Harbinger is getting taken out of the fight.
Olberic Eisenberg (Octopath Traveler) vs Temenos Mistral(Octopath Traveler II) - I don't really like that the 8PT2 topic takes night damage figures for Throne but not Temenos but doing some math it looks like Tememos manages the kill readjusting for that anyways.
Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) vs Xander (Fire Emblem Fates) - Even if Xander could 2HKO Kyra at base (it's probably close), Warla exists so no dice.

Middle

Empoleon (Pokémon) vs Minoriko Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2) - Uh kneejerking here.  Empy's physical damage at the offset is really bad and since Drill Peck is Flying Minoriko could arguably resist it some thanks to affinity nonsense.  Swagger is probably Empy's best hope but since Minoriko's ATK is nonexistant anyways it's not actually getting her down faster, and since Minoriko has a faster 3HKO anyways there's a lot that can go wrong.
Peter (Shining Force II) vs Rinkah (Fire Emblem Fates) - Oh Rinkah has Counter in addition to counters, that's probably gonna spoil here.  Rinkah only 6HKOs him on her own turns after Firey Blood but since she's durable enough to reduce Peter to a 4HKO (and Peter doesn't double, in case that would matter) this doesn't really matter.
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Divine Punisher Shaman (Etrian Odyssey V) - Probably correct.

Light

Thief (Final Fantasy V) vs Corselia (Suikoden Tactics) - If FF5 Thief failed it up against PALMER imagine how well they do against someone with better evade and a regen game.
Primrose Azelhart (Octopath Traveler) vs Seraphina (Disgaea 5) - Think this is probably correct, Sera's damage is a midrange 5HKO to average (so 4HKOs Primrose) and since she goes second that's probably not fast enough.  The evade does murk things up some, but probably not enough to outweigh Primrose having an effective 3HKO here.
Umaro (Final Fantasy VI) vs Ivy (Fire Emblem Engage) - Elsurge does its thing.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike

Riou (Suikoden II) vs Ezel Granada (Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Endless Frontier): Probably just OHKOs to me. If he just misses he might be able to get in a basic physical instead and then heal until a dodge first.
Yuna (Final Fantasy X) vs Satanail (Star Ocean: The Last Hope): Probably. Satanail has problems with evade which does him no favours here. He does have a ridiculous HP pool to cut through but I imagine Yuna can.

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Tim (Brigandine: Legend of Runersia): LightSword gives her too much evasion, she ignores Tim's counters, and she can use healing to stall through Mark of Domination.
Olberic Eisenberg (Octopath Traveler) vs Temenos Mistral(Octopath Traveler II): Heavenly Shine on turn 2 is 1.26 PCHP which kills Olberic.
Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) vs Xander (Fire Emblem Fates): Xander does not beat Heavy mages. Let alone ones with physical spoiling.

Middle

Peter (Shining Force II) vs Rinkah (Fire Emblem Fates): Counter is probably too much.

Light

Thief (Final Fantasy V) vs Corselia (Suikoden Tactics): Isn't thief.
Nanami (Valkyrie Profile) vs Amalia (Chained Echoes): When I first saw this match, I misremembered Nanami as having Heal, which would have been a terrifying stall-off. She does not, so Amalia should be able to heal off anything Nanami does and slowly win.
Umaro (Final Fantasy VI) vs Ivy (Fire Emblem Engage): Yeah Ivy's danger is being doubled. Without that happening she's pretty good.

[Pyro]

Godlike

Heat (Digital Devil Saga) vs Marisa Kirasame (Labyrinth of Touhou)
Lamington (Disgaea: Hour of Darkness) vs Ronin (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
Riou (Suikoden II) vs Ezel Granada (Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Endless Frontier)
Yuna (Final Fantasy X) vs Satanail (Star Ocean: The Last Hope)

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Tim (Brigandine: Legend of Runersia)
Mystic Knight (Final Fantasy V) vs Harbinger (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
Olberic Eisenberg (Octopath Traveler) vs Temenos Mistral(Octopath Traveler II): Night debuffs work here?
Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) vs Xander (Fire Emblem Fates)

Middle

Empoleon (Pokémon) vs Minorio Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2)
Mallow (Super Mario RPG) vs Createur Rosenqueen (Rhapsody II: Ballad of the Little Princess)
Peter (Shining Force II) vs Rinkah (Fire Emblem Fates)
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Divine Punisher Shaman (Etrian Odyssey V)

Light

Thief (Final Fantasy V) vs Corselia (Suikoden Tactics)
Nanami (Valkyrie Profile) vs Amalia (Chained Echoes)
Primrose Azelhart (Octopath Traveler) vs Seraphina (Disgaea 5)
Umaro (Final Fantasy VI) vs Ivy (Fire Emblem Engage)

[Magic Fanatic]

Godlike

Heat (Digital Devil Saga) vs Marisa Kirasame (Labyrinth of Touhou) - Unfortunate for the Frail Ryu2 clone.

Heavy

Mystic Knight (Final Fantasy V) vs Harbinger (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)

Middle

Empoleon (Pokémon) vs Minorio Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2) - I don't think even the Confusion is enough to let Empoleon win here.

Light

Thief (Final Fantasy V) vs Corselia (Suikoden Tactics)
Primrose Azelhart (Octopath Traveler) vs Seraphina (Disgaea 5)

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Riou (Suikoden II) vs Ezel Granada (Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Endless Frontier) - Forgiver Sign is over 2x PC HP that ignores defense, Ezel does -not- live through that.

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Tim (Brigandine: Legend of Runersia) - Mei-ling has all the stall she needs to drain Tim out.

Thief (Final Fantasy V) vs Corselia (Suikoden Tactics) - Corselia just makes a water panel and bonks Thief all day. I'm not even sure she NEEDS the panel because Thief is nearly incapable of breaking through that evade.

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Heat (Digital Devil Saga)- iii vs Marisa Kirasame (Labyrinth of Touhou)
Lamington (Disgaea: Hour of Darkness)- ii vs Ronin (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
Riou (Suikoden II)- ii vs Ezel Granada (Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Endless Frontier)- ii (rng flipped 1)
Yuna (Final Fantasy X)- iiii vs Satanail (Star Ocean: The Last Hope)

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier)- iiii vs Tim (Brigandine: Legend of Runersia)
Mystic Knight (Final Fantasy V)- iii vs Harbinger (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
Olberic Eisenberg (Octopath Traveler) vs Temenos Mistral(Octopath Traveler II)- iiii
Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV)- iiiii vs Xander (Fire Emblem Fates)

Middle

Empoleon (Pokémon)- i vs Minorio Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2)- iii
Mallow (Super Mario RPG) vs Createur Rosenqueen (Rhapsody II: Ballad of the Little Princess)- ii
Peter (Shining Force II)- ii vs Rinkah (Fire Emblem Fates)- ii (rng flipped 2)
Yukiko Amagi (Persona 4) vs Divine Punisher Shaman (Etrian Odyssey V)- ii

Light

Thief (Final Fantasy V) vs Corselia (Suikoden Tactics)- iiiiii
Nanami (Valkyrie Profile) vs Amalia (Chained Echoes)- iii
Primrose Azelhart (Octopath Traveler)- iiii vs Seraphina (Disgaea 5)
Umaro (Final Fantasy VI) vs Ivy (Fire Emblem Engage)- iiiii