RPGVO 2024 Round 3, Losers'1: Light and Dark, Past and Future, Meeting Again

[074]

Godlike:

Worker 8 (FFT) vs. Magus (CT)
Zio (PSIV) vs. Terra Branford (FF6)
Odd Eye (ShF2) vs. Nailah (FE10)
Velius (FFT) vs. Chris Lightfellow (S3)


Heavy:

KOS-MOS (XS) vs. Lyndis (FE7)
Maya Schrodinger (WA3) vs. Ernst (S5)
Ryuji Sakamoto (P5) vs. Tidus (FFX)
Therion (OT) vs. Celica (FE:SoV)


Middle:

Mitsuru Kirijo (P3) vs. Karsh (CC)
Machias Regnitz (ToCS2) vs. Clive Winslett (WA3)
Leehalt Alceste (WA3) vs. Bowser (SMRPG)
Albel Nox (SO3) vs. Shulk (XBC)


Light:

Marcus (FE6) vs. Mustadio Bunanza (FFT)
Peco (BoF3) vs. Nina (S2)
Ricardo Banderas (XG) vs. Cotton (SaGa)
Benedict (TriStrat) vs. Boco (FFT)



Voting should close by the end of Sunday, August 18th, but we'll see if my schedule slip continues.

[Random Consonant]

Godlike:

Worker 8 (FFT) vs. Magus (CT)
Zio (PSIV) vs. Terra Branford (FF6)
Odd Eye (ShF2) vs. Nailah (FE10)
Velius (FFT) vs. Chris Lightfellow (S3)


Heavy:

Maya Schrodinger (WA3) vs. Ernst (S5) - Go figure.
Ryuji Sakamoto (P5) vs. Tidus (FFX) - E&C + Lightningproof means Ryuji's best damage here is Bad Beat and that's really not outslugging anything.  Maybe if it actually had real odds of inflicting Despair he'd scam his way out but lol.
Therion (OT) vs. Celica (FE:SoV) - Well I'd at least say Therion doubles even with my utter lack of respect for 8PT speed working for any sort of turn order but he kind of needs to shut off Celica's ability to OHKO him with Ragnarok Omega and he can't really do that with just 1 BP.


Middle:

Mitsuru Kirijo (P3) vs. Karsh (CC) - P3 speed is basically meaningless past first turn so Mitsuru should be getting her second turn before Karsh gets his... except P3 Mind Charge is apparently worse than the later ones and won't let her OHKO average, and Karsh shouldn't really struggle to blast past her durability.
Machias Regnitz (ToCS2) vs. Clive Winslett (WA3) - Petrify.
Leehalt Alceste (WA3) vs. Bowser (SMRPG) - Things keep going wrong for the King of Awesome.

Light:

Marcus (FE6) vs. Mustadio Bunanza (FFT) - Surely Musty can handle this much, right?
Peco (BoF3) vs. Nina (S2) - Nina you're losing to an onion what are you doing
Ricardo Banderas (XG) vs. Cotton (SaGa)
Benedict (TriStrat) vs. Boco (FFT)

[074]

Godlike:

Worker 8 (FFT) vs. Magus (CT) - The real question here is if W8's work commands and counters can punch Magus to half HP.  That's all he needs to win as then Magus drops his barrier and exclusively uses moves that W8 is immune to.  Kneejerking the robot here.
Zio (PSIV) vs. Terra Branford (FF6) - Good news for Zio, his autocrit physical isn't touched by Morph.  Bad news for Zio, Morph Drain does Drain things and he's humanoid enough for the Man-Eater to apply if Terra doesn't need to Drain.
Velius (FFT) vs. Chris Lightfellow (S3) - Yellow Scarves at best cover Poison, Sleep, Paralysis, and Silence, and my respect for extending omniblocker protection tends to be low by default.  On top of that, Fear abilities aren't even magic anyway.  Unless Chris can OHKO him beforehand (someone better with S3 may correct me on this), Chris is getting stoned.


Heavy:

KOS-MOS (XS) vs. Lyndis (FE7) - abstaining.  It's been too long since I played XS and I don't want to do the math right now.


Middle:

Leehalt Alceste (WA3) vs. Bowser (SMRPG) - yeah, I can't see how Bowser can chip his way through on this.  Outgimmicked.


Light:

Marcus (FE6) vs. Mustadio Bunanza (FFT) - not going to think too hard here and just kneejerk the status user against a FE character.
Ricardo Banderas (XG) vs. Cotton (SaGa)
Benedict (TriStrat) vs. Boco (FFT) - Every impression I have seen of Benedict through gameplay is that he cannot damage his way out of a torn-open wet paper bag.  Boco should just outslug with the healing.

[Tide]

Godlike:
Worker 8 (FFT) vs. Magus (CT) - Very strong kneejerk without any further analysis


Heavy:
KOS-MOS (XS) vs. Lyndis (FE7) - EDIT: This fight comes down to form you are voting under (so recent discussions regarding specifying form matter here for sure)! XS3 form wins with either ultimate skill. Both Platinum Singer (90% damage cut) and Blood Dancer are bad for Lyn. On the other hand, XS1 KOS probably loses. S-Chain helps but it's locked to just one range. Which means Lyn can open with Bow + Bow counter. Even being generous and assume it hits (as NEB does), she then still has to make the next 2 attacks connect while hoping the other effects from S-Chain lands (they are not guaranteed other than the accuracy busting). Speaking of, S-chain only busts accuracy - not evade. So all together, KOS needs to connect like 3 times at subpar hit rates and can't miss once. While Lyn likely doubles too. So that's 4 hits off the bat before this RNG-fest. That's rough.
Maya Schrodinger (WA3) vs. Ernst (S5) - Bad news for Maya: Ernst can chip between physical hits and using the Beast Rune. Worst news: Ernst's L4 full heals him, so she needs to OHKO to win this and I kinda doubt that. Like, if this was Georg5's MDef, then yeah. 
Ryuji Sakamoto (P5) vs. Tidus (FFX) - Yellow Shield blocks Zio skills and Skull's big damage is ST focused. This isn't getting to how he has no resistances to Tidus' speed game, so yeah, this is ugly.


Middle:
Mitsuru Kirijo (P3) vs. Karsh (CC) - EDIT: Mind Charge'd Bufudyne deals 546 damage to a 510 kill point (because P3 vanilla/FES Mind Charge is only 2x). Karsh has 113% HP and pretty much average MDef, so Mitsuru has no chance to OHKO with it. And while Chrono Cross physicals are never 100% accurate, Karsh would need to miss like an entire chain of L1s (which have like 90% accuracy) to give Mitsuru an opening. Karsh high 2HKOs, so all he's going to be doing is pressuring with a L1 physical chain. No.
Machias Regnitz (ToCS2) vs. Clive Winslett (WA3) - Petrifying Shell actually works here!
Leehalt Alceste (WA3) vs. Bowser (SMRPG) - To Bowser's credit, he does have cast best HP, but I'm not sure that helps much. EDIT: One turn of Bowser fear damage is not really enough, so yeah, Bowser has no way to make this work.
Albel Nox (SO3) vs. Shulk (XBC) -Don't see how Albel gets around Monado Speed or Shield. It's not like he has a Dispel and all his big damage comes off of named techs so Shulk will almost certainly have meter for it.


Light:
Marcus (FE6) vs. Mustadio Bunanza (FFT) - Agreed with user Snowfire - Guns are more akin to Siege weapons, so Marcus6 can't even counter them with Javelin. Without those, he has no hope.

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike:

Worker 8 (FFT) vs. Magus (CT)
Zio (PSIV) vs. Terra Branford (FF6)
Odd Eye (ShF2) vs. Nailah (FE10)- Without crunching too hard about it anyways, I think Odd Eye takes an extra swing to kill her, and that's if he hits all three, she definitely gets at least one turn to maul him.  He has the chance to land sleep but I'm calling that a wash with her chance to just dodge his first hit.
Velius (FFT) vs. Chris Lightfellow (S3)


Heavy:

KOS-MOS (XS) vs. Lyndis (FE7)- unless someone wants to math it, KOS-MOS is has a pile of overall durability while Lyn's only got her evade and fuck it, probably enough to win it.
Maya Schrodinger (WA3) vs. Ernst (S5)
Ryuji Sakamoto (P5) vs. Tidus (FFX)
Therion (OT) vs. Celica (FE:SoV)


Middle:

Mitsuru Kirijo (P3) vs. Karsh (CC)- Sadly for her MARIN KARIN doesn't work reliably enough to attempt and create an opening to do something besides heal. P3 speed don't mean much but the way I figure it CC characters are average initiative and then you're looking at basically "time until you double/get doubled" based on agility, and Mitsuru is on the wrong side of average.
Machias Regnitz (ToCS2) vs. Clive Winslett (WA3)
Leehalt Alceste (WA3) vs. Bowser (SMRPG)
Albel Nox (SO3) vs. Shulk (XBC)- uggghhh okay if I can remotely read the stat topic basically any evade buff completely nukes Albel's One Cool Trick because he needs both the HP drain to life and the MP drain to keep attacking.


Light:

Marcus (FE6) vs. Mustadio Bunanza (FFT)
Peco (BoF3) vs. Nina (S2)
Ricardo Banderas (XG) vs. Cotton (SaGa)
Benedict (TriStrat) vs. Boco (FFT)- No vote.

[SnowFire]

Worker 8 (FFT) vs. Magus (CT)
Unless PC Magus has some ITD Scythe.
Velius (FFT) vs. Chris Lightfellow (S3)
Ehhh.  I get not being inclined to extend respect to S3 Yellow Scarf in edge cases, but Velius's Petrify doesn't deserve tons of edge case respect either.  His AI really doesn't like to use it and it's blockable in-game in FFT (a quick Google says Jade Armlets are in Lesalia, so available in C3).  Velius could still win the slugfest hypothetically since Chris needs to give up her first turn to Silent Lake, but Chris has subtractive defense of 0.23 PCHP and Velius's physical is 0.61 PCHP, so 0.38 PCHP net - a 3HKO (that could hypothetically get evaded).  Chris should probably 2HKO with Physical -> Phoenix Rune.

Heavy:

KOS-MOS (XS) vs. Lyndis (FE7)
Kneejerk.
Maya Schrodinger (WA3) vs. Ernst (S5)
Ryuji Sakamoto (P5) vs. Tidus (FFX)
I think having Bad Beat over Agneyastra in the default set seems clearly wrong (Ryuji is never getting the Despair status off before killing himself), but I don't think it matters as Agneyastra shouldn't outslug either.  It's a 3HKO on average but Tidus is getting some crazy massive lapping going here.
Therion (OT) vs. Celica (FE:SoV)
Wrong side of the elemental durability line, THerion.

Middle:

Machias Regnitz (ToCS2) vs. Clive Winslett (WA3)

Light:

Marcus (FE6) vs. Mustadio Bunanza (FFT)
Guns are long-range enough to be closer to FE6 siege weapons, so definitely no counterattack games here.
Benedict (TriStrat) vs. Boco (FFT)
Benedict vs. a healer.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike:

Worker 8 (FFT) vs. Magus (CT): All Magus can use is physicals, which do < 10% to Worker 8. W8 can use ITD to cut through the barrier (while taking around 5% self-damage per) then physicals for phase 2.
Zio (PSIV) vs. Terra Branford (FF6): Morph Drain should do its thing here. Any doubles Terra gets can be used for Fire 3, to boot.
Odd Eye (ShF2) vs. Nailah (FE10): I think so. He basically needs to pray he lands sleep against Nailah evade while she counters him? Odd Eye Beam's an option but highly doubt that wins the slugfest.
Velius (FFT) vs. Chris Lightfellow (S3): Yeah, Chris isn't OHKOing and Seal does its thing.


Heavy:

KOS-MOS (XS) vs. Lyndis (FE7): Assuming S-Chain lands turn 1 due to hitting Res instead of evade (no idea if it hits evade in XS1), but also assuming Lyn still doubles even after losing 20% of her speed (if KOS-MOS weren't on the slow side, I might kneejerk otherwise). Lyn has a low 3HKO against KOS-MOS raw HP so I assume her defence is enough to make that a 4HKO. So KOS-MOS uses S-Chain then 3HKOs... but Lyn still has evade? While Lyn opens with a 2HKO, then tries to finish through blind... which she will on average on her third turn, which comes after KOS-MOS's third... but that means KOS-MOS loses even if she lands every single hit? Only way she has a chance is if she turns off Lyn's doubles and even then she's going to struggle, since we haven't even talked about giving Lyn accuracy credit against blind.
Maya Schrodinger (WA3) vs. Ernst (S5): I assumed Ernst would be squishy but his defence is actually decent? So yeah Ernst transforms, then uses Devouring Jaws twice to fullheal while dealing damage, then finishes with Ripping Claws. That should kill Maya and while she gets three attacks, he fully heals after each one.
Therion (OT) vs. Celica (FE:SoV): OHKO with Ragnarok Omega. Probably doesn't even have to.


Middle:

Leehalt Alceste (WA3) vs. Bowser (SMRPG): Any damage that doesn't kill Leehalt causes him to return it at >3x strength (Leehalt has 9000 HP and faces ~2800). Bowser has no hope in hell of dealing less than ~35% damage on a non-lethal blow and still winning.


Light:

Marcus (FE6) vs. Mustadio Bunanza (FFT): Mustadio has a 3RKO since he doubles from outside counter range. Marcus 4HKOs back and is slower.
Peco (BoF3) vs. Nina (S2): Nina has a 6HKO which regen makes an 8HKO which means she triggers 3 successful counters, to say nothing of what Peco will do on his own turns.
Ricardo Banderas (XG) vs. Cotton (SaGa): Unless literally every one of Rico's deathblows is a grapple move (which Cotton immunes), he should be able to assemble a combo which kills Cotton.
Benedict (TriStrat) vs. Boco (FFT): Boco 8HKOs, but Benedict has serious trouble punching past Choco Cure. He... 3HKOs Boco (the attack buff just makes it a better 3HKO), with Twofold Turn as an interesting option... but I don't think any of it's enough, Boco just uses Choco Cure in response to everything and only Twofold Turn lets Benedict push past it (and that is lost when he recasts Twofold Turn). If only the attack buff were actually good.

[074]

Match Results:

Godlike:

Worker 8 (FFT) |||||| vs. Magus (CT)
Zio (PSIV) vs. Terra Branford (FF6) ||||
Odd Eye (ShF2) vs. Nailah (FE10) |||
Velius (FFT) |||| vs. Chris Lightfellow (S3) |

Heavy:

KOS-MOS (XS) || [TIEBREAKER] vs. Lyndis (FE7) ||
Maya Schrodinger (WA3) vs. Ernst (S5) |||||
Ryuji Sakamoto (P5) vs. Tidus (FFX) ||||
Therion (OT) vs. Celica (FE:SoV) ||||

Middle:

Mitsuru Kirijo (P3) vs. Karsh (CC) |||
Machias Regnitz (ToCS2) |||| vs. Clive Winslett (WA3)
Leehalt Alceste (WA3) ||||| vs. Bowser (SMRPG)
Albel Nox (SO3) vs. Shulk (XBC) ||

Light:

Marcus (FE6) vs. Mustadio Bunanza (FFT) ||||||
Peco (BoF3) ||| vs. Nina (S2)
Ricardo Banderas (XG) ||| vs. Cotton (SaGa)
Benedict (TriStrat) vs. Boco (FFT) ||||

Losers are eliminated (and were this a standard DL format, would probably be the ones in consideration for downgrade).  Winners will move on to Losers' Pools 2 in Week 5.