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Author Topic: RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.  (Read 1351 times)

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RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.
« on: September 27, 2024, 11:17:21 PM »
Godlike:

Mewtwo (PKMN) vs. Shania (SH:FtNW)

Heavy:

Nel Zelpher (SO3) vs. Lady Elmina Harken (WA:ACF)

Middle:

MOMO Mizrahi (XSs) vs. Stocke (RH)

Light:

Marianne von Edmund (FE3H) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH1)


This is a lightning round.  Voting will be open through Monday, 9/30/24.

For those who want to engage in the standard end-of-season upgrade/downgrade bracket shenanigans, the list of duellers by division is as follows:

Godlike: Magus (CT), Zio (PSIV), Odd Eye (ShF2), Chris Lightfellow (S3)
Heavy: Lyndis (FE7), Maya Schrodinger (WA3), Ryuji Sakamoto (P5), Therion (OT)
Middle: Mitsuru Kirijo (P3), Clive Winslett (WA3), Bowser (SMRPG), Albel Nox (SO3)
<+Nama-EmblemOfFire> ...Have the GhebFE guy and the ostian princess guy collaborate.
 <@Elecman> Seems reasonable.

Magic Fanatic

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Re: RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.
« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2024, 11:54:59 PM »
Godlike:

Mewtwo (PKMN) vs. Shania (SH:FtNW) - Even though every other instance of Mewtwo probably loses (I'd need to double-check my math), Gen 1 exists to not have a Dark Weakness and be overwhelmingly powerful.  Mewtwo goes first, opens with Barrier, and now Shania doesn't have a way to actually kill.

Heavy:

Nel Zelpher (SO3) vs. Lady Elmina Harken (WA:ACF) - Repeat.

Random Consonant

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Re: RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2024, 12:59:34 AM »
I still have no real read on how non-Gen1 forms of Mewtwo fare against Shania but that's a repeat match anyways so whatever.

Light:

Marianne von Edmund (FE3H) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH1) - Repeat.

Pools:

Godlike: Magus (CT), Zio (PSIV), Odd Eye (ShF2), Chris Lightfellow (S3), Nel (SO3), Harken (WA:ACF)

Chris = Magus = Zio >>> Odd Eye, Chris beats Magus but Zio has too much offense, Magus tanks Zio, Odd Eye just gets swept by anyone I can vote on.

Heavy: Lyndis (FE7), Maya Schrodinger (WA3), Ryuji Sakamoto (P5), Therion (OT), Stocke (RH), MOMO (XS)

Ryuji can capitalize on the fact that Maya's just not scary enough to him at high HP and Charge+God Hand his way to an OHKO e: and Stocke rues the fact that Ryuji has an Auto-Taru equip to blast past his durability.  All his other fights seem bad.  He can take an Aeber's Reckoning even if it's boosted by Armor Corrosive, but not if he uses God Hand and Shackle Foe says no to that OHKOing with Charge, sure he can overwrite that with Tarukaja but that's time he can't afford and at any rate AR will still wreck him too badly to do much else and I'd favor Therion if Skull goes for a straight slugfest anyways.  Meanwhile Lyn has too much evade even if she misses a 2RKO.  Lyn also has too much evade for Therion and Stocke but Calamity Jane probably wrecks her and Therion can AR his way past Maya and Stocke, and Maya probably 3HKOs Stocke first, so...

Lyn = Therion > Maya = Ryuji > Stocke


Middle: Mitsuru Kirijo (P3), Clive Winslett (WA3), Bowser (SMRPG), Albel Nox (SO3), Marianne (FE3H), Zhuzhen (SH1)

Fear wrecks Clive and Marianne too badly but Zhuzhen... yeah think I agree that he scams his way out.  Mitsuru gets heal locked after Terrorize but Terrorize can miss and... that probably doesn't actually matter since I'd probably rate Bowser going first under a Zoom Shoes average anyways.  Clive capitalizes on Marianne's poor offense too well and heal locks Zhuzhen, but Mitsuru goes first and scrapes a 2HKO under the numbers I use (it's quite close though).  Mitsuru... would be able to 2HKO Zhuzhen but since he has Flames of Fudo to knock her down this doesn't actually matter, toddlers with lit matches beat her.  Marianne versus Mitsuru is rather pathetic, but Marianne's damage is terrible (and she can't even use Frozen Lance) and Mitsuru can probably power through anyways.  Meanwhile, we all know by know how badly Zhuzhen struggles agaisnt Marianne.  So!

Bowser > Clive = Mitsuru = Zhuzhen > Marianne
« Last Edit: October 07, 2024, 03:36:57 PM by Random Consonant »

PhantomRenegade

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Re: RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2024, 08:31:00 AM »
Newbie here: Can Stocke equip set-ups null Confuse, and can his Mana Burst do enough damage to Momo?

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Re: RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.
« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2024, 03:44:47 AM »
Newbie here: Can Stocke equip set-ups null Confuse, and can his Mana Burst do enough damage to Momo?

Good question! RH does not have confuse (or anything particularly similar), so I wouldn't see any RH statusblocker as doing anything against it. If you're more generous on statusblockers than me, you could argue that Sky Drops, due to resisting all four RH status effects, would also resist all status effects from other games, and that would certainly give Stocke a shot. His Mana Burst absolutely kills MOMO if he gets it off.

Godlike:

Mewtwo (PKMN) vs. Shania (SH:FtNW): Rematch. Once again, RBY takes this, other forms are a headache.

Heavy:

Nel Zelpher (SO3) vs. Lady Elmina Harken (WA:ACF): Rematch. Kneejerk that good ice damage is too much.

Middle:

MOMO Mizrahi (XSs) vs. Stocke (RH): See above. To me, MOMO just lands confuse and cruises, since Stocke's basic physical is not scary.

Light:

Marianne von Edmund (FE3H) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH1): Rematch. Zhuzhen still hates the combination of regen and magic durability.


Pools!

Magus (CT), Zio (PSIV), Odd Eye (ShF2), Chris Lightfellow (S3), Nel (SO2), Harken (WA:ACF)


Chris has about 0.4/0.75 durability.

Chris beats Odd Eye by immuning sleep and tanking all his damage (he has a 3RKO on her so she can alternate healing and attacking), and beats Magus by healing off his low damage and counting the ITD effect of crits kicking in eventually. Zio is too much for her though (he 2HKOs with Black Wave, and his physical probably manages a 3HKO so he'll outslug under Silent Lake). She beats Nel via parry rate reducing freeze to turn 3. Harken is probably too much as well, since she'll need two phyicals before Phoenix can kill, which lets Harken get off too good a Maximum Risk. 3-2

Zio is pretty hopeless against Magus if the latter spams the fire or ice barrier. But he beats Chris, outslugs Odd Eye (similar offence, better HP), can chip-then-smash against Harken, and I'd vote for him over Nel too (overwhelms her non-full healing). 4-1

Magus loses to Chris, beats Zio. He beats Harken by unloading ice damage at the right time, beats Odd Eye by countering his weak beams for real damage, but loses to Nel who can turtle through his defensive game. 3-2

Nel beats Harken and Magus, but loses to Chris and Zio. Odd Eye just overwhelms her too. 2-3.

Odd Eye beats Nel, but loses to Chris/Magus/Zio. Against Harken... kinda feel like he's in trouble, since his normal attacks run into parry and Odd Eye Beam isn't that strong, he's likely to face a powerful Maximum Risk. 1-4.

Harken beats Chris and Odd Eye. 2-3.

This would result in Nel up, Odd Eye down. Not... a totally unreasonable result, I suppose.


Heavy: Lyndis (FE7), Maya Schrodinger (WA3), Therion (OT), MOMO (XS1), Stocke (RH)

Maya > Lyn. Maya OHKOs; Lyn can 2HKO her but not in a way that avoids Calamity Jane.
Lyn > Therion. Even debuffing Lyn's attack doesn't stop the 2RKO, provided she doubles (and I'm strongly inclined to say she does, Octopath speed is so trashy). To make matters worse Aebar might just miss.
Lyn > MOMO. Doesn't care about confuse, shreds.
Lyn > Stocke. Still 2RKOs, doens't have.

Therion > Maya. He can debuff her offence and tank her gatling guns until he OHKOs on turn 3.
Maya > MOMO. Doesn't fear confuse, does too much damage surely.
Maya > Stocke. Kinda close but Maya going first seals it, I think.

MOMO > Therion. Confuse wrecks him too badly, I think.
Therion > Stocke. Corrode Armour and then OHKO with Aebar, Stocke just misses the 2HKO it looks like.

MOMO > Stocke.

Maya 3-1
Lyn 3-1
MOMO 2-2
Therion 2-2
Stocke 0-4

MOMO and Therion could trade, I suppose.


Middle: Clive Winslett (WA3), Bowser (SMRPG), Albel Nox (SO3), Marianne (FE3H), Zhuzhen (SH1)

Albel > Clive. Clive can't win until turn 3 with Gatling (Lock-On x2 gets eaten by Vampire Flash) and I have to imagine Albel either 3HKOs or 4-3s.
Albel > Bowser. Even under Fear he heals enough to recover from Bowser's attacks, and then Bowser runs out of MP and he's toast.
Albel > Marianne. Better at the same game.
Albel > Zhuzehn. lol.

Bowser > Clive. Goes first, drops Fear, and suddenly the kill point is way out of reach for Clive.
Bowser > Marianne. After fear, he 2HKOs through Renewal and two halved Nosferatus.
Zhuzhen > Bowser. This one is close. Zhuzhen needs to heal after each fear-buffed physical (even the one where fear wears off), but wins on his fourth Corpse Arm. He can use Corpse Arm on turn 1, 5, 9, and 10 to try for the win. This takes 430 MP. After that he should barely win, I think, ~2.5 physicals (would be 4 but a doubleturn comes around now, and fear might still be in play) and one Flames of Fudo does it.

Clive > Marianne. 2HKOs with Lock-On through anything Marianne does. Marianne wishes she had a reason spell to double with, Nos/Blutgang are too heavy.
Clive > Zhuzhen. His physicals heal-lock, then Gatling comes along.

Marianne > Zhuzhen.

Albel 4-0
Bowser 2-2
Clive 2-2
Marianne 1-3
Zhuzhen 1-3

No ranking changes, provided Mitsuru can take care of herself.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2024, 05:09:37 AM by Dark Holy Elf »

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SnowFire

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Re: RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.
« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2024, 06:15:38 PM »
Mewtwo (PKMN) vs. Shania (SH:FtNW)
Still abstaining here.

Middle:

MOMO Mizrahi (XSs) vs. Stocke (RH)
I'm fine with letting Stocke block status, but I don't think it really matters unless he 2HKOs with the stat hit, and I don't think he does.  It might not even help if he manages it - stalling vs. a Xenosaga character is dangerous, they'll build boost gauge way faster than Stocke gets a Mana Burst.

Light:

Marianne von Edmund (FE3H) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH1)

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Re: RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.
« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2024, 02:33:33 PM »
Mewtwo (PKMN) vs. Shania (SH:FtNW): RBY here, so this is academic.

Nel Zelpher (SO3) vs. Lady Elmina Harken (WA:ACF): Fweem.

MOMO Mizrahi (XSs) vs. Stocke (RH): Weirdly, this is a match where XS3 MOMO struggles somewhat more than XS1, but even then, having to take a damage hit to block silence (and, depending on how harsh you are, not even being able to) puts this firmly out of Stocke's reach. MOMO 1 just cruises.

Marianne von Edmund (FE3H) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH1): Second verse, same as the first.
[01:08] <Soppy-ReturningToInaba> HEY
[01:08] <Soppy-ReturningToInaba> LAGGY
[01:08] <Soppy-ReturningToInaba> UVIET?!??!?!
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PhantomRenegade

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Re: RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.
« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2024, 06:39:59 AM »
The finals are kinda weak, but watching Middle through most of the run was very fun.

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Re: RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2024, 02:47:17 PM »
Imaginary pools

Ryuji has Auto-Taru, that flips the Stocke matchup upside down (and IIRC Ryuji also halves Fire... not that it matters), Tarucharged God's Hand OHKOs Stocke with plenty of room even after factoring in Auto-Taru in the averages (which I obviously do, since both Ryuji and Morgana get it from their equips). Ryuji's auto-Taru weapon comes from an insanely common recruitable Persona from Shido's palace, too, so its legality is kinda not a factor as well. Probably doesn't help him against Therion, though, since Shackle Foe does awful things (and Auto-Taru is just as dispellable as its casting form).
[01:08] <Soppy-ReturningToInaba> HEY
[01:08] <Soppy-ReturningToInaba> LAGGY
[01:08] <Soppy-ReturningToInaba> UVIET?!??!?!
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[01:08] <Soppy-ReturningToInaba> OMG!!!!
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[01:08] <Laggy> .....

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Re: RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2024, 03:33:23 PM »
Godlike:
Mewtwo (PKMN) vs. Shania (SH:FtNW): Rematch

Heavy:
Nel Zelpher (SO3) vs. Lady Elmina Harken (WA:ACF): Rematch.

Middle:
MOMO Mizrahi (XSs) vs. Stocke (RH): About the only fight that requires some thinking since it's not a repeat of previous weeks. And I'm pretty sure Snow is accurate in his assessment. MOMO3 for once has a harder fight because she can't apply Confuse which MOMO1 can and has to do a bit more legwork, but the fight is still in her court.

Light:
Marianne von Edmund (FE3H) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH1): Rematch.

Everyone else has got pools and since I'm late to the party, I'll analyze the tentative team match (cause those are always interesting to me):

Mewtwo, Harken, Stocke, Zhuzhen vs. Shania, Nel, MOMO, Marianne -
So for once in a century, the team match this season is NOT so much dependent on the Godlikes, but more the Heavies. The question is: Are Mewtwo + Harken T1 offenses good enough to take out Nel? Because if not, Nel applies an Ice Dagger combo to Freeze Mewtwo, which then one of her teammates comes in and applies the killshot. The fight goes very downhill from that point. Shania vs. Harken is a match Shania wins pretty cleanly and neither Stocke or Zhuzhen do anything significant. On the other hand, if they do kill off Nel, Team Shania lacks the tools to really put down Mewtwo and he solos. It's also possible that Stocke is faster than Nel but that's much trickier to dissect since ARPG and Move + Attack Speed issues, but that's partially offset by MOMO having the argument of being faster as MOMO1. Then she can sneak a Heal in and restore some much needed HP to a battered Nel to ensure she sees her turn. I'm of the opinion Nel survives but probably by like the skin of her teeth since Full HP Harken offense just isn't that scary.
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Random Consonant

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Re: RPGVO 2024 Grand Finals: It always seems to end in rematches.
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2024, 03:33:52 PM »
i keep forgetting that he has auto-taru