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Author Topic: Futurama 2024 Week 2  (Read 168 times)

Cmdr_King

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Futurama 2024 Week 2
« on: December 23, 2024, 03:23:11 AM »
Godlike

Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Alain (Unicorn Overlord)
Sephiroth (Final Fantasy VII) vs Rudo (Brigandine: Legend of Runseria)
Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Ronin (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
T260G (SaGa Frontier) vs Delphi (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road)

Heavy

Lyon (Suikoden V) vs Highlander (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
Ike (Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance) vs Sienna (Chained Echoes)
Ayla (Chrono Trigger) vs Boston (Romancing SaGa 3)
Oerba Yun Fang (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Strawman (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road)

Middle

Chrom (Fire Emblem Awakening) vs Imperial (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
Magdalen Harts (Wild ARMs Alter Code F) vs Ilia Silvestri (Star Ocean: First Departure)
Serenoa Wolffort (Triangle Strategy) vs Merrin (Fire Emblem Engage)
Hahn Marley (Phantasy Star IV) vs Sonya (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia)

Light

Tony (Wild ARMs XF) vs Almaz (Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance)
Lucius (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Blade) vs Vessel (Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark)
Elie (Suikoden II) vs Saki (Luminous Arc)
Viktor (Suikoden II) vs Canopus Wolph (Tactics Ogre: Let Us Cling Together)
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074

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Re: Futurama 2024 Week 2
« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2024, 04:47:59 AM »
Godlike

Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Alain (Unicorn Overlord) - Alain's sword may grant comprehensive in-game status immunity, but Petrify isn't part of UO's lineup.  Alain's gonna take a big hit and get stoned.  Ironically while the guy whose last name is Blunt is in a different fight.
Sephiroth (Final Fantasy VII) vs Rudo (Brigandine: Legend of Runseria)
Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Ronin (Etrian Odyssey Nexus) - This one requires a few judgment calls, the biggest two being whether you consider 56% status (after Ronin's subpar Luck) to be Turn 1, and how you view Misery translating to Binds.  In the latter case, if you see it as being blocked by the appropriate accessories, Ronin can drop the Cross-Cross and Blade Boots for Gold Shoes and an Arm Guard, trading a small portion of damage and some PDEF for arm bind immunity and zero MDEF loss.

That aside, this fight's over in three actions.  Ronin activates Musou turn 1, and while Ronin will get 3-2'd by Charlton on average, Stone Thrust->Issen will both hit before Charlton gets his second move due to the first move's delay and the second's absolute initiative and likely do enough damage to kill him.
T260G (SaGa Frontier) vs Delphi (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road)

Heavy

Lyon (Suikoden V) vs Highlander (Etrian Odyssey Nexus) - I would like to start this off by saying that I am an idiot and forgot that there was more than one Lyon in the DL.

However, Highlander barely OHKOs with Gae Bolg, which has absolute initiative.  Lyon's 1% Thrust weakness pushes it just over the line into OHKO territory under the strictest mean averages.  This is cleaner if you take Lyon's HP against the with-skills average, which throws this further into Highlander's favor.
Ike (Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance) vs Sienna (Chained Echoes)
Ayla (Chrono Trigger) vs Boston (Romancing SaGa 3)
Oerba Yun Fang (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Strawman (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road)

Middle

Chrom (Fire Emblem Awakening) vs Imperial (Etrian Odyssey Nexus) - I'm going to actually have to math this one out.  Heavy Guard will probably have a greater impact on Brave weapons but also Imperial wants to try and set up for a Charge Edge Accel Drive and that requires landing three hits off of 69% odds.  Not great.  Two Accel Drives could also outdamage the healing, but taking double damage during startup on top of counters makes it a suicide tactic.  Chrom's superior luck also means that attempting to go for a leg bind via Trip Edge won't be a help, nor will the high odds of Aether proccing.  Imperial may be a middle, but they're not necessarily well-suited against one of the most common denizens of Middle.
Magdalen Harts (Wild ARMs Alter Code F) vs Ilia Silvestri (Star Ocean: First Departure)
Serenoa Wolffort (Triangle Strategy) vs Merrin (Fire Emblem Engage)
Hahn Mahlay (Phantasy Star IV) vs Sonya (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia) - Elim...is what I would have said except Sonya goes first, probably doesn't get elim'd in one hit, and doubles average because FE14 has hideously narrow doubling margins for some ungodly reason.

Light

Tony (Wild ARMs XF) vs Almaz (Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance)
Lucius (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Blade) vs Vessel (Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark) - if Vessel could equip swords or have more than 10 MP on their first turn, this would be a hard spoil.  As is, Vessel is a mediocre light at best, Lucius has gotten to the finals before.
Elie (Suikoden II) vs Saki (Luminous Arc)
Viktor (Suikoden II) vs Canopus Wolph (Tactics Ogre: Let Us Cling Together)
« Last Edit: December 23, 2024, 10:29:47 PM by 074 »
<+Nama-EmblemOfFire> ...Have the GhebFE guy and the ostian princess guy collaborate.
 <@Elecman> Seems reasonable.

Nephrite

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Re: Futurama 2024 Week 2
« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2024, 05:02:48 AM »
Godlike

Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Alain (Unicorn Overlord) - Blanket status immunity is blanket status immunity to me. Alain outslugs Velius pretty easily.
Sephiroth (Final Fantasy VII) vs Rudo (Brigandine: Legend of Runseria) - Probably just flies and there isn't much Rudo can do about it. He might just OHKO Sephiroth though? I dunno.
Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Ronin (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
T260G (SaGa Frontier) vs Delphi (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road)

Heavy

Lyon (Suikoden V) vs Highlander (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
Ike (Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance) vs Sienna (Chained Echoes)
Ayla (Chrono Trigger) vs Boston (Romancing SaGa 3)
Oerba Yun Fang (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Strawman (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road)

Middle

Chrom (Fire Emblem Awakening) vs Imperial (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)
Magdalen Harts (Wild ARMs Alter Code F) vs Ilia Silvestri (Star Ocean: First Departure)
Serenoa Wolffort (Triangle Strategy) vs Merrin (Fire Emblem Engage)
Hahn Marley (Phantasy Star IV) vs Sonya (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia)

Light

Tony (Wild ARMs XF) vs Almaz (Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance)
Lucius (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Blade) vs Vessel (Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark)
Elie (Suikoden II) vs Saki (Luminous Arc)
Viktor (Suikoden II) vs Canopus Wolph (Tactics Ogre: Let Us Cling Together) - I feel like Canopus can just play keepaway with Viktor pretty easily - I'd give him more or less default movement speed in a TO map and Canopus has superior range.

Dark Holy Elf

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Re: Futurama 2024 Week 2
« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2024, 05:14:02 AM »
Godlike

Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Alain (Unicorn Overlord): Petrify.
Sephiroth (Final Fantasy VII) vs Rudo (Brigandine: Legend of Runseria): Even if you somehow see Sephiroth as frail enough to be OHKOed, he's faster and can fly.
T260G (SaGa Frontier) vs Delphi (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road): I feel like if there were Holly or Protea I might need to look things up to be sure, but surely smashcan is too much for the younger sisters.

Heavy

Ike (Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance) vs Sienna (Chained Echoes): MLM vs WLW hostility here. First off it's worth mentioning that Human Slayer isn't listed in Sienna's damage figures in the stat thread. Assuming neither side doubles here. Sienna can frustrate Ike with Shadowstep which grants her 3 evades on average. The problem is most of her stuff triggers counters, and she doesn't have the TP to sustain a slow win with her MT moves. So I think the play is... Shadowstep, X-Slash, Shadowstep, Dragonfang, Dragonfang? She has the TP for that, and six evades deals with the four Ike turns and two counters she faces. Two Dragonfangs, an X-Slash, and four shots of Bleed is over 2PCHP damage... yeah, more than enough to win without taking a hit, and that's assuming Sienna never gets a CTB double which tbh is unlikely.
Oerba Yun Fang (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Strawman (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road): While Fang can resist death, there's a stat hit, and Strawman can always lead with confuse and blind before fishing for death, which will still hit eventually. Strawman getting the first turn here is definitely a big advantage.

Middle

Serenoa Wolffort (Triangle Strategy) vs Merrin (Fire Emblem Engage): Serenoa 2HKOs but Merrin goes first and doubles and 2RKOs herself and counters.
Hahn Marley (Phantasy Star IV) vs Sonya (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia): Yeah she probably reduces Elim to turn 2 and that's that.

Light

Lucius (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Blade) vs Vessel (Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark): Uh yeah, Lucius 2HKOs before Vessel does... well, anything. "doesn't even get a meaningful turn against anyone with average speed and 33% damage" is pretty terrible! I guess Hallowed Soul might buff their resistance enough to survive one turn which but I don't think Vessel can win with one turn anyway.
Viktor (Suikoden II) vs Canopus Wolph (Tactics Ogre: Let Us Cling Together): Canopus has just enough pdur to make Viktor's 3HKO absolutely borderline. Best case scenario is that Viktor still 3HKOs, but in that case Canopus has no reason to keep the shield, so he goes bow + axe. He's faster, so he attacks twice, gets two counters, then uses Dark Weight (easily hitting 100 TP by now), which is 1.88 damage, well past even Viktor's competent pdur.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2024, 06:10:40 AM by Dark Holy Elf »

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Random Consonant

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Re: Futurama 2024 Week 2
« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2024, 07:49:32 PM »
Godlike

Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Alain (Unicorn Overlord) - No petrification on UO's status list, yep.  Although you might argue that Alain goes first and OHKOs if you take the full cav bonus?  I do think he probably misses it without.  Average damage would have to hit 89 for me (lower with five person scaling, higher with support credit) for that to happen... and it probably does?  Bracers and 12 WP weapons show up by now so yeah.  And yeah Alain does go first to me.
Sephiroth (Final Fantasy VII) vs Rudo (Brigandine: Legend of Runseria) - Yep, Clean Military Rule misses the OHKO to me and it doesn't even matter.
Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Ronin (Etrian Odyssey Nexus) - Ronin's glad stances in EON work the way they do.  Anyways Ronin isn't 2HKO'd and once their force boost is accounted for, 2HKOs Charlton2 themselves.
T260G (SaGa Frontier) vs Delphi (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) - Yeah Coconut Drop is probably not good enough for this.

Heavy

Lyon (Suikoden V) vs Highlander (Etrian Odyssey Nexus) - NEVER MIND THE 1% PIERCE WEAKNESS IS ACTUALLY RELEVENT HERE, Lyon's defense is completely average and her HP is low enough even without Untold Clarity plot or whatever it was that inflated the averages that it's enough to push Gae Bolg over the edge.
Ayla (Chrono Trigger) vs Boston (Romancing SaGa 3) - Tiger Break 2HKOs and the lobster's faster than Ayla welp.

Middle

Chrom (Fire Emblem Awakening) vs Imperial (Etrian Odyssey Nexus) - Chrom gets brave quads to me which means nothing Imperial does is remotely relevent.
Serenoa Wolffort (Triangle Strategy) vs Merrin (Fire Emblem Engage) - Faster, doubles and thus 3RKOs, counters so Serenoa shouldn't see a second turn, has good evade so it wouldn't even matter anyways.
Hahn Marley (Phantasy Star IV) vs Sonya (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia) - Hahn's ID options definitely shouldn't be turn 1 against Sonya

Light

Tony (Wild ARMs XF) vs Almaz (Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance) - Isn't Tony.
Lucius (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Blade) vs Vessel (Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark) - Vessel seems altogether horrid in a duel, gj being a Fell Seal caster and missing all of the spoiler equip options off of that stat spread.
Elie (Suikoden II) vs Saki (Luminous Arc) - Saki is also horrid.
Viktor (Suikoden II) vs Canopus Wolph (Tactics Ogre: Let Us Cling Together) - Not sure what Canopus's evade is, exactly, but it should suffice to keep him afloat against the likes of Viktor.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2024, 11:53:24 PM by Random Consonant »

Cmdr_King

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Re: Futurama 2024 Week 2
« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2024, 05:26:20 AM »
Godlike

Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Alain (Unicorn Overlord)- No vote
Sephiroth (Final Fantasy VII) vs Rudo (Brigandine: Legend of Runseria)- No vote
Charlton Blunt (Wild ARMs XF) vs Ronin (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)- No vote
T260G (SaGa Frontier) vs Delphi (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road)

Heavy

Lyon (Suikoden V) vs Highlander (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)- No vote
Ike (Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance) vs Sienna (Chained Echoes)- No vote
Ayla (Chrono Trigger) vs Boston (Romancing SaGa 3)- Yeah I suppose that does scan.
Oerba Yun Fang (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Strawman (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road)

Middle

Chrom (Fire Emblem Awakening) vs Imperial (Etrian Odyssey Nexus)- No vote.
Magdalen Harts (Wild ARMs Alter Code F) vs Ilia Silvestri (Star Ocean: First Departure)- M...aybe?  I dunno.
Serenoa Wolffort (Triangle Strategy) vs Merrin (Fire Emblem Engage)- No vote
Hahn Marley (Phantasy Star IV) vs Sonya (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia)

Light

Tony (Wild ARMs XF) vs Almaz (Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance)- I dunno what D5 Almaz does but I'm willing to just take it on faith that it involves being better than Tony.
Lucius (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Blade) vs Vessel (Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark)
Elie (Suikoden II) vs Saki (Luminous Arc)- No vote
Viktor (Suikoden II) vs Canopus Wolph (Tactics Ogre: Let Us Cling Together)- No vote
« Last Edit: December 24, 2024, 02:32:02 PM by Cmdr_King »
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Re: Futurama 2024 Week 2
« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2024, 05:28:34 AM »
Velius (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Alain (Unicorn Overlord)
Alain probably OHKOs and doesn't need to.  Petrify is certainly blockable in FFT and Alain's status immunity is definitely the friendly kind IMO.

Sephiroth (Final Fantasy VII) vs Rudo (Brigandine: Legend of Runseria)

Middle

Serenoa Wolffort (Triangle Strategy) vs Merrin (Fire Emblem Engage)
Unlike last week, where going over range 1-2 was very rare in Fates (and even then was usually just 3 range), Engage has more sources of crazy long range.  And Hawk Dive's 3 range is quite good for getting around counterattacks in-game, so sure, I'd be willing to see Serenoa not having to deal with counters here.  So...  Serenoa will win this sometimes... when both his Hawk Dives hit.  Which is a lot to ask when he doesn't even sport 100% accuracy at base and Merrin has 44% evade.

Hahn Marley (Phantasy Star IV) vs Sonya (Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia)
Even if Hahn's ID really was turn 1, he might be dead before it started, and if he isn't, there'd be a strong respect reason to reduce the odds anyway since Sonya's double Excalibur has a decent chance of critting somewhere which would mean Hahn never gets to roll the dice anyway.

Light

Lucius (Fire Emblem: The Blazing Blade) vs Vessel (Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark)
Elie (Suikoden II) vs Saki (Luminous Arc)
Viktor (Suikoden II) vs Canopus Wolph (Tactics Ogre: Let Us Cling Together)
I dunno about hyping a run-and-gun here (maybe against foes of notably bad mobility?  aka not decorative Suikoden rows), but Viktor ain't great in the DL.

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Re: Futurama 2024 Week 2
« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2024, 09:27:40 AM »
Sephiroth (Final Fantasy VII) vs Rudo Marco (Brigandine: Legend of Runersia) - SEPHIROTH used FLY on RUDO! It's super effective! RUDO used CLEAN MILITARY RULE on SEPHIROTH! It doesn't affect SEPHIROTH...
T260G (SaGa Frontier) vs Delphi (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) - There is a tier of Wild Arms of Oz boss that has a case to handle trashcan. Delphi isn't quite there yet.

Ayla (Chrono Trigger) vs Boston (Romancing SaGa 3) - Lobster goes first, 2HKOs, victory for the B-52s.
Oerba Yun Fang (Final Fantasy XIII) vs Strawman (Wizard of Oz: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road) - SO HEY, I THOUGHT STRAWMAN MATCHES WOULD BE EASY, RIGHT

Anyhow, Strawman's opening action on his first turn is Tomato Bomb, there's no question - anything else and Fang wins with either Fog or Daze. Now, Fang has no blockers for Confuse and she has to equip double Death blockers here. If the 40% blockers, upgraded from L1s, are legal (presuming they are), this makes Falcon Swoop like 8.5% accurate. Fang probably gives up about 1k HP and from 10% to 20% damage for this (don't remember how good storebought offensive boosters were in FF13), which might matter or not. Anything less than two 40% blockers will NOT suffice here: even two 30% blockers will lead to around 20% accuracy per Falcon Swoop, which just means Strawman just goes Tomato Bomb => Fox Hunt => Falcon Swoop x2 on the first turn and collects victoly with the following 4x Falcon Swoop while Fang flails around.

Now, I'll presume Fang just uses her normal physical chain under Confuse and hits all of its strikes - also will assume the chance for an action skip only triggers once for the whole chain. HOWEVER, I will assume she has to trigger individual evade checks on all her attacks. This matters because Strawman has 30%~ evade even before Fox Hunt. With a full chain, hitting all attacks, Fang shaves off 65% of Strawman's health. This means that, if she lands all the hits on the chain in the first turn, she'll need three more individual hits to win. After Fox Hunt, her accuracy plummets down to 25%~ per hit. Calc'ing this off, Strawman's optimal third action in the first turn in Gnaw, because it'll actually let him shave two or three thwacks off his damage in order to win. So, Tomato Bomb => Fox Hunt => Gnaw => start physicallying for 7.25% PC HP a pop.

After the most generous assumptions for damage and durability reduction here, Fang has around 0.88 pdur and deals 58% to Strawman if all hits connect. This means... she needs four individual hits to land in order to close the deal. And she has a 33% chance to skip a turn every turn. Under these conditions, by the turn Fang would get her fourth turn overall, landing the third of the four hits needed to complete her deal, Strawman has already dealt 1148 WoO damage, translating to a KO to Fang even before the hits to damage and durability. I.e. she actually gets outraced by Strawman's godly 14HKO damage post-defense debuffing no matter what...? Wait, what? Jesus christ, Strawman is so evil. Yeah, nevermind, thought this would be closer than it actually is.

Magdalen Harts (Wild ARMs Alter Code F) vs Ilia Silvestri (Star Ocean: First Departure) - Ilia 3HKOs Mags with physical x2 => Tiger Claw and is probably faster even if you scale him to be above average speed. Now, Mags 2HKOs, but... Ilia has like 55% physical evade. And Magdalen's HIT stat is pretty averagish. Yeah, no.

Viktor (Suikoden II) vs Canopus Wolph (Tactics Ogre: Let Us Cling Together) - Viktor 4HKOs Canopus, which means the Vartanjust gets a mean-ass finisher and wins first.
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