Author Topic: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)  (Read 22523 times)

Carthrat

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #125 on: May 01, 2008, 04:32:41 AM »
Cid: Yeah yeah if you're town it won't matter right we'll seeeeeee won't we?

I'm not sure I want to finish today before OK/GTAU/Whoever posts some actual analysis. I don't wanna go into day 2 blind on him; Gate, what's the status? I don't want this to drag out for another weekend either, sooooo.
WHAT BENEFITS CAN ONE GET FROM SCIENTOLOGY?

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #126 on: May 01, 2008, 04:45:52 AM »
Cid: Yeah yeah if you're town it won't matter right we'll seeeeeee won't we?

You sound pretty convinced there that the opposite is true. I will watch day two for your response with interest if I'm dead~ (Though of course I'd rather not be). For the record, I wrote that operating under the assumption that they would be my last words, not as a desperate plea (I expected Andy to bring the hammer down as soon as I'd posted).

Quote
I'm not sure I want to finish today before OK/GTAU/Whoever posts some actual analysis.

But didn't you hear, Rat? There is no content on day one. *Rimshot* Gallows humor, folks. It's certainly the right time for it.

AndrewRogue

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #127 on: May 01, 2008, 06:11:39 AM »
This is a total mess. As is, I don't think we can really afford to drag the game out any further. I'm fairly sure GTAU/OK/SOMEONE can't really well provide anything today. Furthermore, we are still desperately working off day 1 material. The more I mull on the subject, the less comfortable I become with any particular lynch, just because I can see the counter-arguments too clearly.

Cid, I really do hope you are scum. If not... *hugs*

##Unvote
##Vote: Cid

VySaika

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #128 on: May 01, 2008, 08:15:03 AM »
Hammer! And thanks for having already stopped talking.

El Cideon - Generic Warrior Morph(TOWN), has been strung up by his ankles.

Those what have night actions, send 'em in.

Also, Guide To An Uprising is now officially replaced by OblivionKnight. Much thanks to OK for being willing to sub in here.

Thirdly, I'll do flavor/open the next day(assuming I get all actions quickly) tomorrow afternoon, as I'll be out of the house most of the day from the moment I get up. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Final Votecount

(0) Sir Alex - El Cid, Meeple
(5) El Cideon - Alex, Ciato, Tom, Carthrat, Andy Andy
(3) Evil Tom - El Cid, Meeple, Excal Meeple, Meeple, Carthrat
(0) Meeplelard - El Cid, Tom, Andy, Tom, Excal
(0) Guide To An Uprising - El-Cid, Carthrat, Excal
(0) Ciato -
(0) AndrewRogue - Carthrat, Tom, El-Cid, Ciato
(0) Excal - Tom, Andy
(0) Carthrat - Tom
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VySaika

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #129 on: May 02, 2008, 12:49:32 AM »
He went out with his head held high, the Warrior called El Cideon. The crowd had turned against him, and it was decided that he would die to prove his loyalty to his morph bretheren, IF he was even a morph at all.

As the blade came down, he did not flinch. And a moment later, his head lay on the ground. Collectively the 8 remaining morphs went through his meager belongings for inciminating evidence, tested his hair to make sure it was really black, and even pulled out his eye to see that it was really golden. And it was. They had killed one of thier own, and failed to find the humans this day.

As the sun set, the morphs all found secure places to sleep and slept with one eye open...

---

But it would seem that was not enough. For as the sun arose, the body of the odd scarred Sage who spoke more eloquently then most was found, his throat cleanly slit and a dagger still in his heart.

Someone spoke..."Is that? It couldn't be? I thought he died at Dragon's Gate!" A murmer ran through the 7 remaining, astounded by the survival and now saddened by the true death of one of Nergal's greatest creation.

And this time, they had the body to prove that he was dead...


Excal - Ephidel(who had been posing as a generic Sage morph...) (TOWN INVENTOR) was murdered overnight.

(0) Sir Alex -
(0) Evil Tom -
(0) Meeplelard -
(0) OblivionKnight -
(0) Ciato -
(0) AndrewRogue -
(0) Carthrat -

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2008, 12:51:14 AM by Gatewalker »
<%Laggy> we're open minded individuals here
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VySaika

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #130 on: May 02, 2008, 12:54:33 AM »
Also, note that I've put a link to the end of Day 1 in the first post of the thread, in case anyone wants it later.
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OblivionKnight

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #131 on: May 02, 2008, 01:01:37 AM »
Hi.  I'm letting everyone else know I'm here and watching.  And reading everything to make sure I'm catched up.  Something will be up tonight in some way shape or form.
[11:53] <+Meeple_Gorath> me reading, that's a good one

[19:26] * +Terra_Condor looks up. Star Wars Football, what?
[19:27] <+Terra_Condor> Han Kicks First?
[19:27] <%Grefter-game> Vader intercepts.
[19:27] <%Grefter-game> Touchdown and Alderaan explodes in the victory

AndrewRogue

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #132 on: May 02, 2008, 01:17:44 AM »
Well, that was certainly not what I was expecting.

Right now, I'm inclined to follow Cid's last words. Alex! With two flips in hand, what do you think of the current situation?

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #133 on: May 02, 2008, 04:54:56 AM »
Ok!  Pre-bed-for-rotation-post-time!  As promised.  For reference, I'll have a few posts tomorrow after rotation (5pm and beyond), but probably be nonexistent on Saturday/early-mid Sunday. 

For this post, I will focus on my initial thoughts on the flips and my (albeit somewhat cliff-noted) reading interpretation of the previous day.

Flip shows Cid and Excal are town. 

Cid went down and said that he was definitely suspecting Alex (who voted and stayed on Cid the entire time) as a possible scum. 

Tom, Alex, Andy.  The 3 people I think deserve some watching.

##Vote: Andrew

Andrew has pushed votes against both confirmed townies.  He's been a bit lacking in post content, with only  .  He called Cid one of his lowest vote thoughts, and then voted him (saying that it was ).  I'm also concerned he didn't go after Tom at all - placing him #3 on the list (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=898.msg17012#msg17012), which would make him the obvious choice to go for after Meeple.  Tom would have been a good choice for a lynch - he had votes on him.  Why, when it was near the end, didn't you go there?  Yes, day extension bad, but if you don't suspect Cid, why vote him?  As Ciato said, it looks like he's pointing fingers in multiple directions, and the flip with vote counts make it seem like he's been jumping, and from a primary target he notes down to a...last target.  He also almost seems to be pulling people away from Tom to an extent.  Calling out that Tom's detractors have been over-extending the case, while...not mentioning something similar about Cid?  It's odd that he had called Cid his least likely candidate earlier, and then (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=898.msg17458#msg17458) calls him someone he's always been a bit leary of?   

Tom is in the exact same boat here, to me - I'm going for Andrew first simply because he has posted less.  The two have very similar vote patterns.  Tom is getting the "easy" way out of this because he has posted enough posts with some...well, content and defense.  Albeit, it's not been amazing, and civility is important in these matters - he's also got some bad logic too - but there has been some good in there...but he's still very high there with Andrew.  Hell, the Cid switch and push actually irks me a bit, as it really, really seems like he wanted to add fuel to the fire there.  He really did miss detail (see, Cid's pre-death posts to him) in several posts with these gasoline additions.  The fact he pulled off of Andrew initially and tried to throw off "A new angle" (albeit, not a bad idea, but badly timed) is disturbing.  Either of them I think are strong candidates to go after, but since Tom got a little more attention yesterday and had more presence, I'm all for going after Andrew.   As a supportive noted to Tom, if he's scum, going all flagrant with the attacks and calls is stupid, and I don't think, after all these games, he'd do that.  Yes, meta-gaming, but I feel that gives me a decent enough decider for whom to vote for of the two people I feel strongly against.

Alex...despite Cid's death-call, I can't shake the feeling that I don't have a strong scum read on him at the moment.  Cid's points against him I feel are (were?) valid.  However...the unease I really can't quanitfy right now.  I don't get a scum reading from him, but Cid calling for him and flipping town does make me want to look at him.  Since Cid called him at the end of the day, he'll be sure to get some attention anyway, and since I don't really have any strong suspect of him, he's not where I want to throw all my weight at.  Nonetheless, Alex, since you always call for using the role flips as hunting info, what do you make of them?  Particularly, what of Andy and Tom?  What about the choices for votes Excal and Cid made?

Role flips are also something I'd like discussion from everyone on, particularly Andrew and Tom.   

(Wow, catching up on a day of mafia in a few hours is a rush.  Especially when you weren't following it at all beforehand.  Remind me to always read them from now on in case I do sub in.)
[11:53] <+Meeple_Gorath> me reading, that's a good one

[19:26] * +Terra_Condor looks up. Star Wars Football, what?
[19:27] <+Terra_Condor> Han Kicks First?
[19:27] <%Grefter-game> Vader intercepts.
[19:27] <%Grefter-game> Touchdown and Alderaan explodes in the victory

Ranmilia

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #134 on: May 02, 2008, 06:10:47 AM »
Right now, I'm inclined to follow Cid's last words. Alex! With two flips in hand, what do you think of the current situation?

I think the current situation is both good and bad.  The lack of deadline, as expected, caused day 1 to drag out beyond any reasonable length and led to drastic overinflations and theatrics - most clearly shown in Cid's parting words and Andrew's response to them.  As I've been saying, day 1 is fluff and there's no reasonable chance to find scum.  Anyone who's sure they're hitting scum on day 1 is either fooling themselves, scum, or has a crazy role, and since we're not in role madness... yeah. 

Cid was completely off base and blinded by textbook OMGUS.  I know this for a fact, the rest of you obviously do not, but you can draw your own conclusions from the tone and content of his posts.  Working from that - a blind and overzealous townie who will continually press meaningless cases is scum's best friend.  I would therefore expect to find scum in the people that chimed in to agree with Cid and support him on his major (faulty) cases, both before and after his death.  The two people that leads me to are Meeple and Carthrat. 

Meeple was in on the ground floor with Cid on pushing things like day 1 LAL and "Better post content!", joined in with Cid on both Tom and myself, and made what looks like a push to buddy himself up with Cid even further shortly before the lynch - this in addition to actually pushing those issues, and his megapost style.  Despite assertions that this is what he always does, I think he should know better than to be megaposting day 1 issues as town.    He is exactly what I would expect a scum following the headstrong Cid along to look like.

Carthrat, prior to this point, has been what I would call the most actively pro-town poster.  He certainly stands out from the crowd, and I find myself wondering whether he stands out a little too much, in a game where (sadly, please stop it) nearly everyone else seems to be losing their heads over day 1 arguments.  What really catches my eye about him is reviewing the vote history, wherein he is the person with the most votes concurring with Cid's, despite rarely appearing to agree with him on specific issues.  He was with Cid on GTAU, Andrew, and Tom, before flipping over to help lynch Cid himself.  He also stuck out a prod at Excal, which nobody seized on...

(WARNING: UNRELIABLE METAGAMING AHEAD) Every time I've been scumbuddies with Rat, he's been extremely afraid of Excal, calling him a scary town player and constantly suggesting that we kill him night 1.  Here we have Rat poking him, without a vote, a couple others jumping on and then off, saying to look at him later... and then Excal turns up dead.  If anything at all can be drawn from the NK (which is admittedly doubtful) it would seem to point towards Rat.  Metagaming yeah but seriously he hates on Excal EVERY TIME as scum, you have no idea.(END METAGAMING) 

In my experience, townies do not (and often should not!) listen to other dead townies.  Andrew immediately doing so is a bit of an odd point on him, and OK's case on him is valid.  However, I am extremely wary of OK himself, being a late replacement.

Ciato is the person I have the weakest read on at the moment, and would be my LAL candidate as it were.  Her jump to Cid's defense (yet participation in his lynch) doesn't help. 

Tom is irritatingly unhelpful, but I think he's not been so bad this game, and Cid's hounding him helps explain some of his behavior.  Still, the fact that he was the train opposite Cid is not to be overlooked. 

##Vote: Meeple
Most suspicious for now, Rat a semi-close runner up.  Everyone fairly suspicious.  Keep your laser handy!

Meeplelard

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #135 on: May 02, 2008, 07:09:30 AM »
Guess I'll post some thoughts on the matter for each person.

Alex: Much as I wanna say his little start attacking on El-Cid based on some reasoning I still can't fathom (again, how do you call what El-Cid did "Entrapment?" That's mincing words and you know it)...I can't at all say he's scum.  Why? This is Alex people.  I hate to Metagame, but face it; Alex isn't one who'd be so stupid as to make a case like that, start with all that "this is useless" play style talk (my wording sucks, I know), and think he can get off scotch free.  Its an incredible WIFOM, and something you wanna avoid.  For this reason, Alex doesn't seem particularly scummy.

OK: I have no clue.  He has a legit reason for not saying anything, being a replacement and all that, so naturally that can't be held against him.  And his "introductory" post did show he was making an effort to catch up.  Of course, we can't simply let him have a free pass on everything he does from this point further, but its kind of hard to get ANY sort of read on him as it stands.

Ciato: Having a hard time reading her, though her being on the Cid Train makes me suspicious of her a bit I guess.  One thing that stands out to me was how she somewhat defended Cid in the Cid vs. Alex stance, or at least, it was done in the whole "I don't like the last three posts!" thing Alex brought up...and still kept her vote on him anyway.  If she was suspicious, I felt like she'd have not bothered going to Cid's aid at that point.  Might be reading too into this though.

Tom: Part of the Cid Train, and his Day 1 Antics still leave a bad taste in my mouth.  HOWEVER, from what I gather, a fair amount of Tom's actions are pretty typical for him according to several others ("Tomness" is a term that was used at least once, or something to that effect), but he hasn't really done much to help either.  Still suspicious of him as a result.

Andrew: He's been pointing fingers.  He also hammered Cid, though I can't really hold that against him; I think most people just wanted that day to end.  Sounds like he's been wishy washy.  ALSO, there's that stunt, which probably is minor but still there, where he claims he's going to post something, but didn't.  Seems like one of the better cases at the moment, but I want to actually hear him too.

Rat: I still think he's pretty townie at the moment.  The Excal Metagame thing is a neat point...but at the same time, its still metagaming, and Alex did admit its unreliable.  Though, he changed his vote from Tom who was at -1 to Hammer to Cid JUST after Tom was announced to be at -1...I suppose this could easily be viewed as "there will still be someone at -1 to Hammer" but felt its worth noting nonetheless.  His reasoning makes sense; the argument Cid and Alex got into doesn't really do us many favors.  Its Day 1, so who we lynched is pure luck if its Scum, might as well get someone who is likely to do most damage isn't TOO bad a reason; if they're scum, more power.  Now, granted, that logic would fall short on any other Day.
Either way, I'm not really suspicious of Rat.

To respond to something Alex brought up, however, regarding Rat?

Quote
He was with Cid on GTAU, Andrew, and Tom, before flipping over to help lynch Cid himself.

Check back to when each vote happened, you'll see they don't really fit in.  At very least, Andrew was during the Joke Phase, based entirely off silliness; not seeing how you can really get any sort of read from this.  The GTAU thing was more or less the same, I'll grant.  Tom, though, Rat made the case on him much earlier than Cid, and Cid tried to capitalize on it later.

Assuming that the GTAU and Tom situations are indeed good enough for a connection...that's only two people.  Not an unlikely scenario for two votes to be shared, especially considering the length of the day.  Andrew's doesn't really hold water as that was Rat during the joke phase, and Cid's vote was actually reasonable (and came on after Rat swapped to GTAU.)  Not seeing how this really sticks out, personally.

In any event...
##Vote: Ciato

If you check, she hasn't had ANYONE vote on her yet.  For this reason, she has been able to hang back as no one has really made a case on her yet.  Now, you could argue it was Day 1, but I still feel like with no votes on her, she may be put into a situation where she feels safe and hangs back.  Yes, I might be looking TOO into this, but I feel a vote on her is necessary at this point, if only to get more out of her.

Andrew's also someone I'm looking at heavily at the moment, and want to hear his defense in some areas.
[21:39] <+Mega_Mettaur> so Snow...
[21:39] <+Mega_Mettaur> Sonic Chaos
[21:39] <+Hello-NewAgeHipsterDojimaDee> That's -brilliant-.

[17:02] <+Tengu_Man> Raven is a better comic relief PC than A

Ranmilia

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #136 on: May 02, 2008, 08:04:37 AM »
good points on Rat-Cid connection

True, true.  It does kinda work the other way around, but yeah.  I'll admit, I didn't go back and scour the early pages to see who voted first, that was just off the vote record and top of my head.  My perception is likely colored by paranoia regarding "Hey Rat's playing too well" and "Hey Excal died."

OblivionKnight

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #137 on: May 02, 2008, 01:13:12 PM »
You know, that post I typed disappeared in pieces.  The hell?  Sad I noticed it now.  I also took for granted that my former self made one post, and forgot to mention our love of delicious Subway Philly Cheesesteak subs.  They are delicious, though not part of a balanced breakfast (or involved with the 5 for $5 deal).   

Anyway, I'm going to head off to rotation in a bit.  My preceptor isn't in, so I should have a chance to post somewhere in the day before getting back home, unless I decide to do my NAPLEX preparation like a good little student >_>

As for now:

Regarding jumping to Cid's defense...mmm...looking at it via a roleflip perspective, are you saying that those flocking to Cid's defense are possibly scum in the sense that they wanted to jump on to defend a (to them, since they were scum) confirmed townie so that would look better when he flipped?  I suppose it is fairly obvious when I ask the question now, but I would just like to make sure I'm following the same line of thought.  That's a definite possibility, and does strike me as a decent strategem for scum to take.  So jumping on to El-Cid's defense would make Ciato and Meeple candidates as well?  I agree, Ciato voting for Cid then helping lynch does fall in with that, but I don't get an overly strong read on Ciato as scum at the moment.  Meeple the same way.  Meeple does pull up good logic for Rat's defense on the vote-flip, which helps - Ciato...mmm...mostly has defended others from what I remember so far. 

Rat I still feel is giving good town vibes.  What I saw from the Excal prod was a similar prod I've seen from him in the past - don't be wishy-washy and too nice - have some balls and strike a case with force instead of being non-committal.  I know he's said the same to me at points (with good reason - granted, I feel that's partially my personality at play here, being diplomatic), and <UNRELIABLE META-GAMING AHEAD> wasn't scum in those games </UNRELIABLE META-GAMING>.  Since he's been active and contenty, I really have him set as my 2nd-most-likely townie thus far.

A good thing so far is that I haven't forgotten anyone specifically is playing at the moment, so I'm not in a LaL mood right now, because I don't really think anyone's in a lurker position, in terms of the hard definition of lurking (not posting and reading).  Content-wise, some people are a little shakier than others (hey, myself included, but I only have 3 posts so far!), but overall, I can name whose playing off the top of my head. 

Also, just in case the 5 for $5 deal doesn't work retroactively...

##Unvote: Andrew
##Vote: Andrew
[11:53] <+Meeple_Gorath> me reading, that's a good one

[19:26] * +Terra_Condor looks up. Star Wars Football, what?
[19:27] <+Terra_Condor> Han Kicks First?
[19:27] <%Grefter-game> Vader intercepts.
[19:27] <%Grefter-game> Touchdown and Alderaan explodes in the victory

Carthrat

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #138 on: May 02, 2008, 01:37:47 PM »
Gonna put this into two parts.

Day 2 Begins!

I haven't really taken this much into account with my eventual vote. I'm waiting to see what others say and will put it together as a whole. Ye've been fairly warned.

<->
Quote from: OK
case on Andy, with linkery

Funnily enough, I haven't really thought Andy is scum for some of the reasons you seem to think so. His vote+scuffle with Excal and hammer have given him some cred from me, really.

I'm also not sure it's really fair to compare Andy's early post to his later one; that Cid appeared on the list o' people-to-lynch would
seem like an expression of leeriness enough.

Quote from: Alex
flattery+metagaming

I uh no. If you'd voted me for this I'd probably be OMGUSing you, as it is I'm only remarkably suspicious of you for this one. It's not Tt has just as much value turned back on yourself now. Really I can't fahtom why you'd even bring that up. The fact that Meeple thinks it's a neat point is blah too, even if he immediately qualifies that with 'it is metagaming'.

The compliments are nice, though, keep 'em coming. That goes for all of you.

Meeple pretty much refuted your earlier stance on me, not much else to say 'bout that, pay more attention?

It seems, basically, that you've just looked at the votecount and not realllly thought about the reasons or discussion behind 'em, by your own admission as well. Forex, what you cite as a reason to look at Tom (being opposite Cid on the votetrain) seems like, well, a non-reason; his own vote for Cid means nothing given the timing (a desire to save his own skin more than anything else, I'm willing to wager, which is pretty ok for townie-Tom in that position.)

I am not sure at all about the Meeple piggybacking idea and want to see what others say about it before weighing in. Suffice to say that it seems flimsy to me at the moment.

<->

Quote from: Meeple
words
words
ciato-related words
words
words
surprise, ciatovote!

Although I appreciate he has is own style this... format... is the most aggravating thing 'bout it for me. Anyway, it seems his primary reason is to see how she reacts to a vote, and not really her keeping-a-vote-on-Cid thing. Clarify that sometime, Meeple. I believe the suspicious thing about Ciato is the sudden change to Cid right after the surge of votes on Tom, so I could listen to a case made on her.

Lower-presence-than-others is kinda true. Wouldn't really call it lurkering, though, and her posts have been substantive enough.

<->

Day 1 in review!
<->

Day one has left me leery of two people; Alex and Tom.

-Alex is weird because of the early case on Cid, in part; I know I initially read him as basically stamping on day 1 discussion (which seems dumb during day one) although later clarification eased up a bit; Cid's reaction doesn't seem, in reflection, that out of bounds to me early on. That this is being called mindless OMGUS worries me somewhat, as it seemed that Cid was indeed analyzing the whole game and not yelling out of the blue.

I like how basically both of them predicted the other would hate them, and thus the prophecy indeed came to pass. Can we please not second-guess people? It leads to stupid.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=898.msg17284#msg17284 In this post, he referred to three posts above him, one of which was Cid's, and then seemed to think it weird when Cid reacted to it despite not being mentioned by name. This is like the worst kind of splitting hairs there is; when they are referred to even indirectly people are going to focus on the references to themselves. Ego and all that.


-Tom: What I said at the start of the game about him still holds, although it's muted now. Towards the end of yesterday, he was pulling out an attack on Cid. Now I can't fault him for attacking Cid on principal. But I can fault him for how he did it. He seemed to have simply pulled out a Cid post and criticized absolutely everything in it without regard for whether it is worthy of such. Case in point is the bit where he attributes something I said to Excal as directed at Cid.

I basically agree with Ciato as she says 'he's trying too hard to build a case on Cid.' Aditionally, this post -

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=898.msg17439#msg17439 is disliked; in it, he says the following, paraphrased.

1: I defended myself perfectly well against Meeple, and my langauge was perhaps strong.
2: WHO CARES, Scum wouldn't behave like I did because scum do the opposite of what I did!

1 is fine, 2 is not. You could just as easily say "Scum don't act like me, therefore I am not scum." for all the relevance it holds, as well as stuff about the mafia handbook/trying to read emotions/tone of voice on the INTERNET being bad...

Really, all of this would be basic playstyle stuff, not inherently true but subject to debate without appearing scummy. Except for statement 2 up there and his assault on Cid. Do not like at all.

##Vote: EvilTom so yeah. Alex seems a bit better to me. But then again he always does by virtue of his english-major-way-with-words-thing. I don't really like either of them, and this isn't a binary 'if x is scum y is not' thing so I feel comfortable with this.

<->

Final fearsome note: I have actually seriously considered pushing a lynch on OK today from the start. This isn't exactly fair, but having nothing on someone scares me as town, somewhat. His opening post was great, but he's seriously going to have to put more effort than others in today. That he's vanishing for part of the weekend is noted. Today will probably take a week anyway so I'm not too concerned there.

CIATO, despite misgivings about Tom's case on Cid, why'd you stick with your vote on him?

ALEX, I think you're playing rather carelessly in general, and nowhere is it more emphasized than your first day 2 post. Do you make anything of Andy's hammer?

EVILTOM, WERE you, as I thought, simply reaching for any shot at survival, which came in the form of Cidlynch? And what do you think of the voters towards the end of that line?
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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #139 on: May 02, 2008, 04:14:33 PM »
Looks like day 2 started right after I left for uni this morning.. and I spent 15 hours at uni without any real time to examine stuff, and now it's 1am and I'm way too tired to analyze stuff.
But to answer your question Rat; honestly, yes. Lynching anyone else is preferable, for obvious reasons (I know I'm town etc). This is not bad play. In fact, it's what the game is based on, so I'll ask you kindly not to hold it against me.

Your other question? ##Vote: Andrew. Way too tired for specifics, but for reasons different to OK's vote. I haven't really noticed him much, he seems to be riding waves.
I'm also a bit sus about Alex with his mono-focus, but that's not super-sus on its own.

Rat, I'd like to see the second part of that post. Enough for now though, bed time.
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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #140 on: May 02, 2008, 04:29:00 PM »
There ain't any more I was planning tonight. It is in two parts, divided within itself. Day 2, Day 1 is what I meant. (Frankly, after day 1, anyone who makes a promise to post probably hasn't been paying attention. o-o)

Don't hold lynching Cid against you by itself. It's how you went about it and various other comments you made towards the end of the day that did it for me.
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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #141 on: May 02, 2008, 04:47:09 PM »
Vote count:

(0) Sir Alex -
(1) Evil Tom - Carth
(1) Meeplelard - Sir Alex
(0) OblivionKnight -
(1) Ciato - Meeple
(2) AndrewRogue - OK, Tom
(0) Carthrat -

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #142 on: May 02, 2008, 07:48:59 PM »
Quote
ALEX, I think you're playing rather carelessly in general, and nowhere is it more emphasized than your first day 2 post. Do you make anything of Andy's hammer?

+townie points for being willing to hammer, -townie points for weepy theatrics.  Pretty neutral read on the whole. 

The last two straight games I've played as town, I got a massive scum read on Corwin both times, and both times dismissed it because I couldn't go back and quote specific things to prove it.  Wound up sinking us in Classical Composer.  So yes, I'm being a little more off the cuff.  My read on Rat, it is worth mentioning, is based much more on the contrast of his play than his connection to Cid, though the vote record got me looking at him.  I also don't like how Rat's blurring the incidents between me and Cid - he said I was *singling him out*, which was wrong, and I don't think it's hairsplitting to make that distinction. 

Much more worryingly though I don't like how Rat's saying to Tom "What you did was scummy, unless you did it for this reason, then it's OK.  Did you do it for that reason?"  Of course Tom's going to say "Oh yeah, just saving my own skin, no scummy here nosirree!" 


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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #143 on: May 02, 2008, 07:59:56 PM »
Why did I defend El-Cid despite thinking he was scum (or at the very least, scummier than everyone else at the time)? Because being objective is something I strive to do. The point about people announcing when they was going to post before he posted was completely inane, and just because there were other points on him doesn't mean that one point isn't completely stupid.

However! After the rather extensive hounding of Alex over two pages followed by randomly switching his vote to Tom,  I felt like that, given the rest of his record, he might have been trying to start a train in whatever direction he thought would be most benefitical to him. Voting for lurkers? Eh, it's a little weird how he latched on to both, but then the OMGUS vote and the subsequent switch to Tom I thought was a little much. The rest of the cases I felt were weak; Tom for essentially being really tempermental and Meeple for talking too damn much (which he does).

Although I appreciate he has is own style this... format... is the most aggravating thing 'bout it for me. Anyway, it seems his primary reason is to see how she reacts to a vote, and not really her keeping-a-vote-on-Cid thing. Clarify that sometime, Meeple. I believe the suspicious thing about Ciato is the sudden change to Cid right after the surge of votes on Tom, so I could listen to a case made on her.

I'm just kind of curious; is this suspicion based in thinking that I was trying to protect Tom or just general?

Ciato: Having a hard time reading her, though her being on the Cid Train makes me suspicious of her a bit I guess.  One thing that stands out to me was how she somewhat defended Cid in the Cid vs. Alex stance, or at least, it was done in the whole "I don't like the last three posts!" thing Alex brought up...and still kept her vote on him anyway.  If she was suspicious, I felt like she'd have not bothered going to Cid's aid at that point.  Might be reading too into this though.

My vote for Cid was LONG after the episode with Alex/Cid. I'm not sure if you are actually paying attention very well to the game, and that makes me EXTREMELY suspicious. As is it seems like you are trying to pull a case out of thin air on me for some reason, as well as, reading over the rest of your post, you seem to think other people are more suspicious...

If you check, she hasn't had ANYONE vote on her yet.  For this reason, she has been able to hang back as no one has really made a case on her yet.  Now, you could argue it was Day 1, but I still feel like with no votes on her, she may be put into a situation where she feels safe and hangs back.  Yes, I might be looking TOO into this, but I feel a vote on her is necessary at this point, if only to get more out of her.

Um... uhh....

... what. NO ONE HAS VOTED FOR HER YET, THUS SHE NEEDS A VOTE! This might apply in the joke voting phase but to use this as a real argument against someone is... um yeah! You say that no one has made a case on me, thus I have been allowed to hang back. Except... how am I supposed to respond to not being voted on. Uh, sorry? This admission is weird and mildly scummy; I think you may have read Alex's post, saw the chance to stir up some shit with someone who hasn't had much suspicion directed toward them, and decided to place a vote. I am sorely tempted to vote you for this shit, but I realize it's kind of OMGUSy.
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AndrewRogue

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #144 on: May 02, 2008, 08:05:35 PM »
OK
Quote
Andrew is totally scum as you can see by the fact that he .

Could you go back and fill in the blanks in your post, by chance, OK? I'd like to know what you were intending to say.

On the subject of Tom vs Cid, I thought I was fairly clear there. Both had been people I had had suspicions about (Cid was indeed on my earlier lists), and the movement against Tom was leaving a bad feeling in my gut. The votes against him seemed to be building up for highly exaggerated reasons. Given that things had moved away from the two candidates I'd been moving on, I was forced to decide. Cid felt like the better informational lynch, and I had more reservations about him than Tom.

Tom
Quote
Andrew is suspicious... FOR REASONS

Any chance of a clarification there, Tom? I can't really defend myself unless I know... why I need to defend myself.

On the subject of me just riding waves though, that's... kinda completely not true. I made a solid stab at Excal (for all the good that would have done) and I hammered Cid which is certainly not the best way to lay back and ride waves.

So, yeah. I need some clarifications from both Tom and OK (Meeple, if you could specify what you want me to talk about too) before I can really defend myself. As is, Tom is fairly high up my list again, and OK is moving up it a bit.

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #145 on: May 02, 2008, 11:42:40 PM »
Andrew: What I was going to say - I had left those spaces blank to fill in exact post numbers ("...with only") and to note that you voted for Cid despite him being lower on the totem pole than Tom ("...saying that it was a mess so far and that the day couldn't be held out any longer").  The first point doesn't matter too much - it's been hashed already that your posts have been evadey (granted, the most recent ones are due to a legit reason, i.e., needing a question answered), particularly the first post of this day, which provided...nothing, just a question to Alex.  No thoughts on the flip yourself.  The second part does baffle me a little - Tom would have been at 4 then, and if you truly felt him that much worse initially than Cid, should have been where you went - no limits on time.  I just...I know if I thought Tom were scummier, I would have voted for him, especially since there was no threat hanging about nor a lack of votes to put on him (3 already, would have tied with Cid had you voted there - I'm not trying to pull some magical argument out of my ass here, but it's just something I'm not getting - you said your opinion on Tom changed a bit, but I'm still not fully understanding why).

If you could elaborate a bit more on the Tom issue, I would appreciated it. 

Also, I never quote that quote you quoted >_>  I can understand paraphrasing, but that does look a little harsher than I had meant it to be. 
[11:53] <+Meeple_Gorath> me reading, that's a good one

[19:26] * +Terra_Condor looks up. Star Wars Football, what?
[19:27] <+Terra_Condor> Han Kicks First?
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[19:27] <%Grefter-game> Touchdown and Alderaan explodes in the victory

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #146 on: May 02, 2008, 11:58:58 PM »
Hmm. My impressions of the end of Day 1/beginning of Day 2 events...

One interesting thing that Alex points out is that Rat asks Tom a question that he already knows what the logical response to it will be. This is of interest because of the interaction he and Tom have on Day 1, where Rat does pretty close to the same thing.

The post from Andrew may not have been substantive, but it was there and not referred too.
Once again:
I'm not going to move my vote from Andrew until he's posted something [of any real substance or value]
I should probably have typed out that last part rather than just 'think it' and assume everyone knew what I meant. I didn't mention his most recent post specifically because it was nothing more than "I have nothing to say!".
I felt that it was self-evident that Andrew's post was insubstantial. My vote on him speaks louder than words.

Common Andrew, show us some substance! Seriously, that post was... lacking.
I generally assume the worst when people omit important details, this being a game of paranoia and all, so... yeah, apart from that, it's fine.

He points out Tom doing something that he finds moderately suspicious, enough so to point out, and then he backs off pretty much immediately afterwards. Later, Rat starts talking about how since Tom has backed off of him, he finds him less suspicious. But that wasn't his initial reason for voting him. He's giving off pretty mixed signals regarding the Tom thing; he seems to have a dash of going easy on him combined with hitting him hard with very strong arguments (and backing them up with votes). Rat acknowledges Cid as a potential lynch candidate here:

However, I'm going to reconsider Meeple and Cid. Just don't think Alex is voteworthy. Cid OMGUS'd Alex, and both of them capitalized upon portions of Alex's post and seemed to exaggerate his stance in ways I don't think it was intended. If I change, it'll likely be to one of them.

After this, he comments on the double push for Tom with Meeple and Cid and asks why Excal didn't vote for Cid, instead choosing to stick with Meeple. This seems like an odd case to pursue since Meeple did the thing that Rat cited in his post as El-Cid (not only the time where Excal pointed it out, but in that very same post). The last post I am pretty bothereed by, though...

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that powerfully worded arguments will generally be seen as uncivil by their detractors, even if they are likely to have significantly more impact. This game is as much about convincing others as it is logic. Even for townies.

Furthermore, the comments he's made to Ciato about voteswitching/length of the day... wellll. Although the time is quite long, the actual quantity of posting hasn't exactly been impressive. (I know I've posted in the early afternoon, come back at midnight, and found like 1 more post since.)

I somewhat feel that lynching Cid is not a bad choice today. I feel his argument with Alex is the most likely to spill over into day 2 and obscure further progress. I'm generally cagey about people fostering goodwill between townies as a whole. In general I'm leery of the other people voting for Tom at present and that's probably my biggest concern.

There are a couple of things that I found off in this post. First of all, he talks about powerful arguments and then says "I somewhat feel lynching Cid is not a bad choice today". This doesn't really sound like someone who is very convictious at all, despite his promotion of strong talking policies. Also, you found the people voting for Tom suspicious but not Tom's immediately jumping onto the rolling bandwagon suspicious at all?

(The right reason to vote for him, as far as I'm concerned, would've been his future-thinking langauge early in the game and his propensity to slam only those who have targeted him. These were not brought up very often. I feel that today, others have decided to take advantage of his reputation as both an easy day 1 lynch and an easy excuse in the future.)

But mainly I'm just really uncomfortable with a lynch on Tom today.

I think his commentary on Cid being an easy lynch are odd. If you really thought people were taking advantage of that, then uh why'd you vote him? I don't understand why someone in the town would intentionally do that. The only person who seems to have a motivation to do that is scum.

Rat, now that Cid is lynched, do you feel that you gleaned a significant amount of information? Because most of your analysis of Tom is just based off of his weirdass behavior still rather than the flip.

Okay, I didn't mean to just single out Rat in this post, but Alex's comment spurred an investigation on the Rat. I find Rat rather suspicious but there are other people I definitely wanted to look at before I make a judgment one way or another.  But now, it's time to go to get awarded my scholarship. ^_^
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EvilTom

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #147 on: May 03, 2008, 03:07:21 AM »
Chronological index of Andrew's posts this game:
1.
Haven't been in a posting position. Take of that what you will.

Anyhow, can't say anything on Alex, because he's not around to. On a positive note, at least he managed to post something before vanishing. GTAU, on the other hand, is kind of in a stupid position. I'll give him a little more time to post, but this is definitely not looking good.

Trying to get something else out of this, but we're still a bit lacking at this point.

2.
Okay. I hate to foot drag like this, but  given Alex's absence is due to a "legitimate" excuse, there may be some merit in dragging day one out to give him some time to clear through graduation and what have you. Running through days without a player being around gives us that much less information to work with on them.

GTAU should also be pretty viable for a modkill at this point, but could we get a confirmation one way or the other here?

Excal's original reason for calling me out stands out a little bit, and I'm still not really sure I understand it. Not major, but its an odd thing to pick me out for. I also take a bit of offense at his comment that I'm "always a wild card." Care to substantiate that one a little more? That seems a little like a comment designed to make lynching me look more reasonable from a metagame prespective.

Tom's original call out of Rat is a bit strange as well, and beckons a bit of WIFOM discussion. Scum can benefit from calling out the start of serious discussion, because then they get rep as happy good little townies. Tom overreacts a bit strongly to Meeple (not used to seeing that kind of bile out of you, man! :p ) which says something, but what is hard to say. His latest post is also a bit... hostile towards me as well. What gives man? You are almost as snappy as Otter this game.

Meeple's original vote for Evil Tom is... questionable, to say the best? He kind of wavers around on potential reasons, wall of texts the game and then basically votes Tom for voting a lurker. Rather silly.

El Cid stands out for actually having very little to say. More posts, but incredibly light content. Even his later contributions... still feel a bit lackluster.

Ciato is in a similar boat. She is also a bit odd for lagging in putting a vote down. Third point of contention is here off-handed handling of Meeple initially. Of course, she's stepped up substantially at this point and settled earlier concerns I was feeling.

Alex should be making an appearance soon, right? I'd definitely like to hear stuff from him at this point.

Generally speaking, if GTAU isn't to be modkilled, my vote would fall to him at this point. As it stands though, I'm a bit bothered by Meeple. While I realize it is a particular trick of diction for him to post walls of text, they are surprisingly difficult to use, encourage skimming and look like a lot of content without actually saying anything. Furthermore, his original attack on Tom really bothers me, as does his original reluctance to put votes out there.

While I would definitely like to take advantage of the loose time frame to let Alex jump in and actually start playing, if a lynch must be had, my current order would run something like GTAU > Meeple > Tom = Alex > Cid.

To restate, in brief.

GTAU for obvious reasons. No presence. Modkill is preferable here though.

Meeple's entire posting style, as well as his initial attack angle, seem distressing. They reek of WIFOM and actively challenge some accepted methods that are definitely decent patterns.

Tom, not for bad arguments, but for a shocking shift in behavior that I have not seen out of him before. The snappiness and cynicism in his posts is incredibly bothering and damages argumentation.


Alex clocks in if we absolutely refuse to wait for him, or he doesn't show.

Cid clocks in for feeling a bit light on the content, but having just enough presence to show.

3.
Checking in while I have two minutes. Will post after I get to work.

4.
Yay! Alex. He does raise some relevant points, of course. LAL on day one does have some problems. Not sure its quite as irrelevant as he says, but he definitely has a point. Lurking isn't always an intentional or controllable things, so lurking on a specific day (especially a day with limited content) can be innocent. Of course, it remains a better default than nothing, so hey.

Meeple... nah. No "he's not changing votes" stuff. I have no problems there. The problem that I have with your content (and I realize it might simply be your style) is that your word count is painfully dense for what you actually say. Obviously I can't unquestioningly fault you for an actual writing style, but it does need to be accounted for in my head. Much like real life excuses, personal "style" can also serve as a cover for scumminess. Your style really is useful for scum! Long posts give you content credit while simultaneously proving hard to read (I'll admit, even now, my eyes are kinda glazing as I read your post) and end up getting notoriously skimmed by DL players (recall the ease with which Lady Door snuck around because... well... people tended to only skim her posts). By the by, please don't turn it around me. As you say, I had a lot to catch up on and it necessitated WoT posting. I'd also argue that my content to word count ratio is a bit better, and that the overall density is a lot less given I've posted less.

It should be said that the hypocrisy argument is pretty weak. My mistakes don't invalidate those of others.

Anyhow, yes, I do feel your content is a bit lacking. I'm not saying it isn't there, but I have problems with the density to word count ratio. Furthermore, you are using that "new target, new argument" as a fairly serious crutch. While it is good, I don't think your move was particularly ground breaking or anything.

Carth: My problem with Meeple is his post style, as well as the pace at which he's moved. The entire initial attack on Tom was complete WIFOM. This is further hinged on, indeed, what might just be his personal style. The problem is that it is a style that is somewhat disruptive and can interfere with actual analysis. I can't fault him completely for it, but I can hope he sees the problem with it and takes some steps to squash his posts a bit.

My big thing with Tom is, indeed, the shift in tone. Its metagamey, but his diction is uncharacteristic which means something! I can't say what it actually means, but it is enough to raise an eyebrow for me. ...

I realize I'm skipping over some posts here, but have to actually work for a bit. I'll get back to this.

5.
Working up a post.

6.
Well. I have a question here, actually. Ciato! What are you actually looking for from me? I feel like I have been attempting to provide analysis (and, to some degree, I think I've certainly succeeded). Any clue on what you actually think I'm lacking?

7.
Ciato: Well, the reason I asked is I have been doing the former! I have also attempted to clarify my position on Meeple and Tom several times up to this point. You've been prodding me for what I've been attempting to provide, hence the question. I was curious if there was something specific I seemed to be lacking.

To try and clarify it one last time, my main problem with Meeple is a series of factors. His vote for Tom, the method in which he used said vote to defend himself and the general tone and method of his posting. While it isn't tons, it is enough to make me feel uncomfortable.

Meeple: Fair enough on both counts. I'm really not intending it as a personal attack on your style, and certainly not attempting to clear myself through it. i just can't let it slide either. I am glad you are working on it though. It really is useful!

GTAU: Whee! Yeah. Post more.

Alex and Carth... I'm having serious issues getting reads on either of them.

Excal... your stances on me continue to be really odd. Like, really odd. Your initial commentary on me still stands out as uncharacteristic and weird. Furthermore, you say my movement on Meeple raises all sorts of red flags for being based on "personal attacks"... then proceed to vote Meeple anyway! Presuming you actually felt like I was doing something truly red flag worthy, why would you join me in attacking a given target, when even you aren't too sure about it? It feels off.


In fact. That feels REALLY off.

##Unvote: Meeple
##Vote: Excal


I realize that interaction isn't the only factor you go off of, but why do you still attack Meeple despite me setting off alarms as well?

8.
Okay. Seriously man! Tone down the attacks on my play, man! :p You were critical of my attendance before game really got rolling (in fact, you were critical of my mafia attendance in general) and now you are passive-aggressively ascribing a view point to me that I did not express. At all. This isn't actually reassuring.

More to the point though, you missed the gist of my post. I wasn't questioning that you did not vote for me. I know that you had other arguments in your post. I was questioning what I feel is a notable disjunction in your vote on Meeple: your argument and subsequent vote for Meeple does not take into account the fact that I have been voting for and attacking Meeple for a period of time now. My question was, to try and make it more clear, why did you ignore the then-current dynamic between myself and Meeple when you actually placed that vote? It really strikes me as strange to say that someone is raising your suspicions... then join them (looking back at the vote count, you actually join both me AND Tom) on their vote train without even really giving a passing acknowledgement of it! See where my problem is coming from?

9.
Ho'kay, having thought about it. I'm inclined to not really see the case on Tom at this point. Yes, I realize he has had some problems, and they simply can't be written off as Tom being Tom. It feels like the arguments against him have been highly... exaggerated? While there have been legitimate points, they've been hammered repeatedly, overemphasized and brought down very heavily. I can't help but get a sense that there is an attempt to prey on Tom for being... well Tom! I'm honestly not seeing the magnitude of the case on him.

As is, I'm definitely leery of Excal, but it is clear that he won't be on the block today.
At this point, I do agree with some of the oddities surrounding Cid and his interactions. He's not my top candidate, but he's been someone who I have been a bit... leery of?

As such, I'm announcing intent to hammer Cid.

<--------------------------------------------------------------->
=======
ANALYSIS
=======

Evasiveness:
Andrew's first post raised a lot of suspicions from the start, due to lurking etc. Let's assume he had a perfectly legit reason for not posting. But when he *did* post, it was basically to say 'sorry for not posting, can't comment on Alex because he's lurking, the end'. It was that total lack of effort to post anything real that raised alarms.
His second post was huge, in order to combat these claims. I was voting for Andy for this reason, and post 2 made me unvote him.
Post 4: A decent (but incomplete!) post, then 'I'll get back to this.' Never does.
Post 5: 'Working up a post.'
Post 6: 'Well. I have a question here, actually. Ciato! What are you actually looking for from me? I feel like I have been attempting to provide analysis (and, to some degree, I think I've certainly succeeded). Any clue on what you actually think I'm lacking?'
Andrew, from this record, it's obvious what you're lacking. Nearly everything.
= It's easy to see a lot of evasiveness. At the start he was AWOL, then in the middle his posts did the whole 'more later' thing, which is a scumtell.

The Tom Turnaround:
Note that as early as his second post, he starts fishing around for the 'Tom incivility' case.
Apparently I should be lynched because:
'Tom, not for bad arguments, but for a shocking shift in behavior that I have not seen out of him before. The snappiness and cynicism in his posts is incredibly bothering and damages argumentation.'
In post 3: 'My big thing with Tom is, indeed, the shift in tone.'
= Just note here that he's Anti-Tom on the basis of incivility, snappyness, cynicism etc.

The Meeple Playstyle:

From his second post, he attacks Meeple based on his playstyle: 'wall of texts the game and then basically votes Tom for voting a lurker. Rather silly.'
That last bit at the end, calling Meeple silly, was uncalled for, and possibly designed to provoke.
Later that post-
When talking about GTAU, he once again for some odd reasons resorts to attacking Meeple (even though he was talking about GTAU):
'Meeple. While I realize it is a particular trick of diction for him to post walls of text, they are surprisingly difficult to use, encourage skimming and look like a lot of content without actually saying anything. Furthermore, his original attack on Tom really bothers me, as does his original reluctance to put votes out there.'
Then again that post: 'Meeple's entire posting style' is a reason for Meeple's lynch, according to Andrew.


Analysis so far:
There was a big Meeple/Tom thing going on around this point of the game, so frrom w hat I can see, Andrew threw some gas on the flames then stood back to watch.
However, After post 5, Ciato calls him out and he has to start talking again.
Note the turnarounds-

The Tom Turnaround - Part 2:
Post 7: Says nothing about me, goes exclusively after Meeple
Post 8: Doesn't mention Tom
Post 9: 'I can't help but get a sense that there is an attempt to prey on Tom for being... well Tom! I'm honestly not seeing the magnitude of the case on him.'
= Wow, what a massive turnaround. The first few posts were going after me for incivility and playing it, but by the end he's playing it down.

The Meeple Playstyle - Part 2:
Post 7: 'Meeple is a series of factors. His vote for Tom, the method in which he used said vote to defend himself and the general tone and method of his posting.'
'Meeple: Fair enough on both counts. I'm really not intending it as a personal attack on your style'
= Another big turnaround, after lots of attacks on Meeple's walls-a-text, he claims that he's not attacking the playstyle, and his attacks are attributed to 'other factors' [not listed].

Excal? What excal?:
By this time, Andrew was getting his base raided by Excal. And he wasn't really coping with defending against it.
Post 7: 'Excal... your stances on me continue to be really odd. Like, really odd. Your initial commentary on me still stands out as uncharacteristic and weird. Furthermore, you say my movement on Meeple raises all sorts of red flags for being based on "personal attacks"... then proceed to vote Meeple anyway! Presuming you actually felt like I was doing something truly red flag worthy, why would you join me in attacking a given target, when even you aren't too sure about it? It feels off.'
'Okay. Seriously man! Tone down the attacks on my play, man!'
Post 9: 'As is, I'm definitely leery of Excal, but it is clear that he won't be on the block today.'
= This is a bit metagamey, but, assume Andrew is scum for a second; Excal has been railing him a bit, and Andrew can't really fight him off. Also, as he says when fishing around for Excal votes, it doesn't look like he's going to be able to get him lynched. Then Excal dies to NK. This isn't really the basis of the case, it's just something I realised while I was going through all of Andrew's posts.

Accomplice?
So if Andy is scum, who would his partner be? [Read this section in a bubble, there's a fair bit of speculation involved]
The only times Andy mentions Carthrat, ever, is when he's telling Rat about Meeple's walls of text, and when he's helping defend Rat from my attack. That's it. Andrew has never attacked Rat. He's only mentioned him once in passing. If Andrew was to flip scum, I'd very seriously look at Rat.
I'm not going to get into Rat in detail (because this post is huge like xbox), but food for though:
Funnily enough, I haven't really thought Andy is scum for some of the reasons you seem to think so. His vote+scuffle with Excal and hammer have given him some cred from me, really.
I don't see how the scuffle with Excal gives any cred at all.
Anyway that's a lot of speculation, but something to think about.

Day 2 Stuff:
Well, that was certainly not what I was expecting.

Right now, I'm inclined to follow Cid's last words. Alex! With two flips in hand, what do you think of the current situation?
Ye olde tactic of invoking the words of the dead townie. Bad bad bad bad bad. Alex already explained this at: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=898.msg17599#msg17599
Also OK has some good points here: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=898.msg17581#msg17581

Sorry for not giving you reasons for my vote last night Andrew, but I was way too tired. So here it is!

And yes, that took an hour and a half >.> So I don't think I'll have time to post again till tonight at the very earliest.
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Meeplelard

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #148 on: May 03, 2008, 04:07:31 AM »
Ok, back from work and such!  Anyway...


Rat:

Quote
Although I appreciate he has is own style this... format... is the most aggravating thing 'bout it for me. Anyway, it seems his primary reason is to see how she reacts to a vote, and not really her keeping-a-vote-on-Cid thing. Clarify that sometime, Meeple. I believe the suspicious thing about Ciato is the sudden change to Cid right after the surge of votes on Tom, so I could listen to a case made on her.

I could stand some linearity in my posts I suppose; I'm trying to work on that.  I apologize.

My reason for voting Ciato was that I felt it was odd she was protecting El-Cid but voting for him at the same time.  The "doesn't have a vote on her" added an aspect of confidence to her.  When people lack votes, they get confident, and at the same time, allows them to lay back a little, since if they don't bring up any attention, they can stay under the radar.

Is this a scum tell or something? No.  HOWEVER, I figured putting pressure on Ciato would at least help weave out the whole "staying under the radar" thing.  Scum love to hide under the radar.  If they can keep it up, no one can catch them.  This almost worked for Dhyer in Rando Mafia, for example, until Andrew came in, did a role claim that confirmed SEVERAL townies, and managed to get Yakko to look at everyone more closely, noticed Dhyer had been hanging back, etc.

This doesn't always work, no, but...I figure staying under the radar is never a good thing for town.  As I noted, its perfect for Scum if they can keep it up.  For a townie, however, it helps make an easy target for Scum to snipe at...

As I said, I have some suspicions for her, and she's not my #1 target, however, I'd prefer to put some pressure on her rather than allow her to hang back and ride things out leisurely.

[quote[Lower-presence-than-others is kinda true. Wouldn't really call it lurkering, though, and her posts have been substantive enough.[/quote]

I agree.  Its not an LAL vote, its more a "put pressure on her" vote.  Though, one vote, thinking on her, doesn't really do much so in hindsight, this was probably not the best of moves...

To Ciato:

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Why did I defend El-Cid despite thinking he was scum (or at the very least, scummier than everyone else at the time)? Because being objective is something I strive to do. The point about people announcing when they was going to post before he posted was completely inane, and just because there were other points on him doesn't mean that one point isn't completely stupid.

Suppose that's fair, just still feels odd when you vote against someone, then support them later.  I'll go look back and see how you supported Cid, and see if they are indeed general objective stances.


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My vote for Cid was LONG after the episode with Alex/Cid. I'm not sure if you are actually paying attention very well to the game, and that makes me EXTREMELY suspicious. As is it seems like you are trying to pull a case out of thin air on me for some reason, as well as, reading over the rest of your post, you seem to think other people are more suspicious...

Yes, I do think people are more suspicious than you.  As I say earlier in the post, I feared you could easily slide under the radar had you not had any sort of pressure.

After recentish events, Tom's looking suspicious again.  Why? He votes for Andrew, then says "I don't have time for specifics."  While yes, I am suspicious of Andrew, I'm not going to simply jump on a train (especially since it pushes him to -1 Hammer, and doing this that early I just can't agree with) when at least one person didn't bring up reasons.  It kind of reminds me of Clue Mafia; Cid basically attacked me instantly, when we were down to 5 people, without so much as giving a decent reason beyond "same as Kilga and Rat!"  This not only got me lynched (I was Town), but also put him in a situation, combined with his earlier play, where the case on him was too strong for Kilga to ignore.  In the end, for votes NOT on Day 1, I just can't get to going with ones where at least one voter lacks any sort of reason (And yes, voting purely to Hammer counts as a reason.  This isn't the situation Tom is in.)

Well, he gives one reason; Andrew's been riding waves.  Which is...about as vague a statement as they come.  And that doesn't seem right anyway; Andrew at very least made a unique (if weird one) on Excal.  He also was the first person to seriously vote against me from my recollection, though, that was from his Finger Pointing Post.  I don't see wave riding here...

This isn't to say there are other reasons Andrew is suspicious.  Of those, there's how he lurked for a while, posted something with no content, then finally comes in pointing fingers at most people in the game.  Hammered El-Cid which is WIFOM naturally, so that doesn't go anywhere, and then there's the "I am going to post!" and never following up on it fiasco.  Recently, he more or less responded to OK in what seems to be a subtle "OMGUS!" manner, claiming OK said something with no basis when he, in fact, did try to present a case.

So yeah, I'm suspicious of Andrew for a number of reasons.  None of which are "Wave Riding" which is the closest thing to a reason Tom gave.

So why not vote for Andrew? Cause as I said, he's not my only suspect.  Tom's on there too.  At first, I was willing to give Tom some leeway for being Tom, but...his latest post involved Voting for Andrew with no actual reason.  Can't fall back on the "Its day 1" argument here, can't fall back on the 'saving own skin' argument either.

Rat...I'm not really seeing Alex's case on him.  Rat in general is hard to read until near the end, and frankly, I'm still thinking there's the psychological "Rat is Always Scum!" thing kicking in, which make people naturally look at him worse than he really is.  As I noted, the oddest thing he did to me thus far is change from Tom to El-Cid, which isn't much; and again, in that case, the end result was Cid got lynched instead of Tom, since he just changed where the -1 to Hammer was.  The only argument I can see for Rat is that Rat changed his vote from Tom to Cid, cause they're scum buddies, but that doesn't go anywhere since Tom's role hasn't been flipped.

Alex, meanwhile...his case on Cid is not what makes me leery of him.  Its his case on Rat.  His latest argument is bringing something up that I just don't see.  Care to elaborate where you get this from:

Quote
Much more worryingly though I don't like how Rat's saying to Tom "What you did was scummy, unless you did it for this reason, then it's OK.  Did you do it for that reason?"  Of course Tom's going to say "Oh yeah, just saving my own skin, no scummy here nosirree!"

From what I read of Rat's post, he actually said something like "All of what Tom did wasn't too bad, just a playstyle thing...except that he also did this, which can't be ignored."
Different story altogether.  What Rat is saying is Tom's incidents aren't much by themselves, but there are a few that stick out *AND* all that play style stuff, it suddenly makes him look bad.

Also...

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Meeple was in on the ground floor with Cid on pushing things like day 1 LAL and "Better post content!"

I'm not sure what you're saying here.  Are you saying I was supporting Cid's LAL thing?  Cause, you know, I was generally against LAL.  I noted why its popular, but I also said in that same line I disagree with it.  The "Better post content!" stuff was something many people were saying in different shades; it wasn't "get Alex if he doesn't post!" but rather "Alex needs to post something soon, he can't ride out on his armor forever."  I've seen people in other games say stuff like this for people who indicated they couldn't be around for some time.
As I noted before, calling something like that Entrapment, especially since El-Cid's one time where he stated that felt a bit tongue and cheek is overstating the situation.  I'm apparently not alone on this either; Rat noted that all Cid was doing was extending from LaL, a common enough trend on day 1.

You were against Cid for going with common trends on Day 1, from the sounds of things.

Also, not sure how much this means, but apparently the only people to vote on Alex were myself and Cid.  Look who Alex has voted on, meanwhile.

My vote stays on Ciato for now.  As I said, while she's not my most suspicious target, I'm still suspicious of her some, but I want to keep my vote somewhere for now, and am not comfortable with switching it quite yet, especially since Andrew would by -1 to Hammer and this early, that sounds like a bad idea, especially since Tom hasn't given a good case!

....and shit, while I was posting that, EvilTom did, indeed, deliver a post about his reasons.  I REALLY need to work on making my posts shorter for the sake of avoiding situations like this ;_;
[21:39] <+Mega_Mettaur> so Snow...
[21:39] <+Mega_Mettaur> Sonic Chaos
[21:39] <+Hello-NewAgeHipsterDojimaDee> That's -brilliant-.

[17:02] <+Tengu_Man> Raven is a better comic relief PC than A

Luther Lansfeld

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Re: Fire Emblem Mafia (Game Topic)
« Reply #149 on: May 03, 2008, 07:24:36 AM »
Alright. Alex I find pretty hard to read. Basically I find voting for Cid when there was other stuff floating around pretty sincere despite the eventually lynching. I don't think that vote turning into a lynching when there was basically nothing being addressed about Cid before him.

On the other hand, a lot of the things he's said throughout the topic are just plain weird. Most of them I've talked about before, but the Rat metagaming point is just... hum. I wouldn't be alarmed by just throwing the fact out there in and of itself, but the fact that he says that there was this drastic change in his opinion on Rat. If I'm understanding you right, you said he came off as the most townie and now he's in second as a lynch candidate?

On another Alex note, I agree that people citing Cid's last words as something that needs to be looked at as weird since an angry, emotional townie isn't the most reliable source ever.

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Why did I defend El-Cid despite thinking he was scum (or at the very least, scummier than everyone else at the time)? Because being objective is something I strive to do. The point about people announcing when they was going to post before he posted was completely inane, and just because there were other points on him doesn't mean that one point isn't completely stupid.

Suppose that's fair, just still feels odd when you vote against someone, then support them later.  I'll go look back and see how you supported Cid, and see if they are indeed general objective stances.

Would you mind telling me where I defended Cid after voting for him, please? I'm not sure exactly what post you are referring.

Meeple's logic is unfathomable and I don't particularly comprehend the concept of voting for someone for your reasoning. Also says that he gives Tom leeway for being Tom even though all he's done most of the game is attack Tom. Um, okay. As I've said, pressure for the sake of pressuring someone doesn't work unless you give reasons for the pressure. Discourse involving the reasoning for being pressured seems key to me, and I can't really defend points unless you bring them to the table.
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