Octopath Traveler

[SnowFire]

Eight travelers on an adventure meet at a tavern… 

Cited resources:
* Octopath Traveler official guidebook, at least the parts of it I could read.
* Huge credit to Reddit user /u/Tables61 , who derived the formula for damage & healing via testing as well as how each skill interacts with it.  I have used the PDF/LaTex guide compiled by Reddit /u/Zhell_sucks_at_games extensively in making this.  (Thanks to RPGDL members Dark Holy Elf & Ciato for tipping me off to its existence, as well.)  See: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RJJnHXJICBrQyhxFBqxLwpwf-kzz3tjD/view

Level
I've assumed Level 50, largely because that's the level the guidebook has the no-stat-boosting-nuts stats for.  It's overlevel for the Chapter 4s, and a tad underlevel for the postgame superboss, but so it goes.  (L45 would probably be better, but you will also have in-game stat boosts from subclasses and stat-increasing nut items, so maybe L50 is okay to reflect those higher stats anyway.)

The general assumption for equipment is that this stat topic is modelling just-before a character's Chapter 4.  You've visited all the farthest crop of towns, bought cool stuff from their inhabitants, and done sidequests with recommended level < 45.  You haven't actually started or finished any Chapter 4, nor gotten treasure from C4 dungeons / bosses, nor unlocked various NPCs & quests that appear after a C4 is completed.


BP
Short for "Boost Points", BP is an extra stat that charges over time that is kind of like BP in Bravely Default.  It increases by 1 a turn, up to a maximum of 5 BP.  You can spend BP to boost an action so that it deals more damage, heals more, inflicts a buff or debuff effect for a longer time, etc.  In general, most abilities boost such that spending 1 BP is double damage, 2 BP is triple damage, and 3 BP is 4x damage.  If you spend BP, however, your next turn you won't gain a BP, so you are encouraged to wait a bit then spend it all at once.  Some abilities below will say "boosts at rate 0.8" or the like; that means that rather than double damage for spending 1 BP, it will instead be 1.8x damage (and 2.6x damage for 2 BP, and 3.4x damage for 3 BP).


Speed
Mentioning this up-front because it's weird and DL-important.  The speed stat isn't potent in Octopath; initiative has a huge random component, so you need to seriously outspeed enemies to consistently beat them.  So…  take it with a grain of salt, low speed isn't necessarily that bad, and high speed isn't that reliable.

The key weird thing in Octopath vs. other RPGs is that turn-order is calculated one turn ahead, as can be seen by the initiative forecast.  This combines with the fact that characters always default to a specific weapon type to mean that a character's default weapon type is what will affect the first two turns of initiative, even if their alternate weapon is faster.  (Thus Olberic is stuck with his Sword's speed score on turn 1 even if his Spear's speed is faster.)

In short: your speed stat at the start of turn 1 will affect your initiative rolls on turn 1 and 2.  Your speed stat at the end of turn 1 will affect your initiative on turn 3.  Your speed stat at the end of turn 2 will affect your initiative on turn 4, etc.

Also, note that Octopath Traveler is turn-based, not CTB based.  A super speedy character won't get in-game double-turns, a slow character won't get doubled.  The only way for this to happen in-game is Hunter's Patience skill, which offers a 25% chance of a free extra action in-between turns.  (No, you don't get BP on a Patience turn.)


Equipment
A lot more stats come from equipment than the characters themselves, and you can hypothetically juggle equipment quite a bit to get different builds.  In practice, this means that most characters will sacrifice everything for more speed if you let them.  I've elected to lock down options a bit and forbid this.

Armor, Helmets, Shields, and Accessories are all universal, so I've elected to be strict and say storebought only for these.  See Appendix below for the full list of options, but everybody is assumed to have the following defensive equips for ease of comparison:

Enchanted Circlet: Phys. Def. +79, Elem. Def. +104, Max SP +53
Dragon's Vest: Phys. Def. +183, Elem Def +185
Force Shield: Phys. Def. +102, Elem. Def. +102, Evasion -69
Sprightly Bracelet: Speed + 50
Empowering Ring: Max. HP +200

Weapons are trickier.  Going storebought-only would have some weird effects (e.g. Therion's best storebought speed-increasing dagger is hideously dated and outclassed).  Each of the six weapon types has 2 of the 8 base classes that can wield it.  However, DL-illegal subclassing in-game might mean that you now have 3-4 characters who can wield that weapon type if you give those classes to characters who didn't already have access to that weapon.  That said, I have elected to allow the 2nd-best weapon of a "type" as a measure of niceness to dagger & staff users.   Note that, as above, I've discounted most C4 and postgame drops, as well as some storebought stuff that is locked behind Scrutinizing somebody hiding behind a level 70 duel and so on (cough, cough, Hyperion Bow).  So no credit for, say, picking up 2x Rune Knifes in Tressa's C4, for all that Primrose would like that option.  I'm also not including items you get from drops from Provoke/Challenge (you have no way, short of a FAQ, of knowing who might be carrying the good stuff, and the only stuff that matters for this topic generally requires beating postgame-level opponents anyway).

See the individual character writeups for weapon options.


Subclasses
Are DL-illegal, but there's no reason not to equip one in-game unless you really like the base sprite of your characters.  They offer class-specific stat boosts, the ability to equip their favored weapons, and their skills.  The reason I bring it up is that the elemental attack stat is a little different - it uses your HIGHEST value among all your weapons, not your current weapon's value.  While it might be illegal to "use" an off-class weapon, it might be legit to bake in the existence of other weapons as a strict Elemental Attack holder?  This means that characters won't be obligated to equip for Elemental Attack on their main weapon selection unless they want to.  (Which is accurate to in-game, IMO, you'll have 3-4 weapon types and devoting a little-used one to Elemental Attack is cheap.)  This most matters for Primrose, and to a lesser extent for Therion & Alfyn if they have a match where they want to threaten both beatdown and backup magic at the same time.

Assuming we lock these off-class backup weapons to storebought only, the "worst" classes for this are Dancer and Thief, which only offer Daggers for +188 E. Atk off a storebought Soul Knife, so that seems like a good baseline of "you will always have at least this much of an E. Atk boost."  (Alfyn will sometimes want this if he can't afford to equip his mage axe option.)  For Primrose herself, this issue is actually kinda important…  she really wants to run both a Speed dagger for initiative as well as still have worthwhile magic.  While technically she could foolishly subclass to Thief and be stuck with worthless swords, of her other 6 options, the "worst" option as far as storebought elemental attack weapons is, oddly enough, Scholar & Cleric, which offer +216 E. Atk Meteorite Rods.  As such, as a measure of generosity, I've let Primrose & Therion have +216 E. Atk even when equipping a Speed Dagger.


Derived stats
PCHP is the HP of the character compared to average; i.e. Olberic has 1.25 PCHP = 125% average HP.  Physical & elemental durability are the PCHP affected by physical/elemental defense.  Specifically, it's a multiplier based on how much damage the character takes from an enemy attack with 1000 base power, an attack multiplier of 2.3, and that multiplies defense by 0.9.  Such an attack will deal 1100-1200 damage or so, which feels about right for powerful boss attacks.

All of the damage figures listed below assume an enemy with 225 Defense.


Cast Averages

HP: 2724 (equipped); 2787 (w/ Alfyn passive); 2524 (base, no equipment/skills)
Speed: 289 (equipped); 295 (w/ Therion passive); 178 (base, no equipment/skills)
Speed std. deviation: 91

("Natural" rules - no Guide/Allure summons, no Summon Beast, no Hired Help)
Damage, 1 turn: 860 (2.5x killpoint: 2145)
Damage, 2 turn: 895 (2.5x killpoint: 2235)
Damage, 3 turn: 1205 (2.5x killpoint: 3010)
Damage, 4 turn: 1010 (2.5x killpoint: 2530)
Damage, average of 1/2/3/4 turns: 990 (2.5x killpoint: 2480)

("Anything goes" rules - Summon help, within budget & sanity constraints.)
Damage, 1 turn: 1140 (2.5x killpoint: 2845)
Damage, 2 turn: 1245 (2.5x killpoint: 3115)
Damage, 3 turn: 1520 (2.5x killpoint: 3805)
Damage, 4 turn: 1315 (2.5x killpoint: 3285)
Damage, average of 1/2/3/4 turns: 1305 (2.5x killpoint: 3265)

[SnowFire]

Ophilia, the Cleric

2416 (2216) HP, 257 (154) SP
545 (181) Phys. Def, 626 (235) Elem. Def, 194 (144) Speed, 75 (144) Avoid
81 (181) Phys. Atk, 502 (217) Elem. Atk, 181 Accuracy, 76 (126) Critical
0.89 PCHP, 0.92 Physical Durability, 1.00 Elemental Durability, -1.04 std. dev from average speed

Forbidden Staff (Phys. Atk. −100, Elem. Atk. +285, Critical −50)

Alternate equips:
Note that healing scales off Elemental Defense.
Morning Star (Phys. Atk. +196, Elem. Atk. +102, Critical +72).  Better staff beatdown, worse magic.
Adamantine Shield (Phys. Def. +76, Elem. Def. +131, Evasion -81).  Reduces Ophilia's physical durability to 0.88, but stronger healing. 
Primeval Robe (Phys. Def. +99, Elem. Def. +198, Max SP +35).  Reduces Ophilia's physical durability to 0.82, but mildly stronger healing and more SP.
Both Primeval Robe & Adamantine Shield: Physical durability drops to 0.78, but the best healing.
Elemental Heavy Armor (Phys. Def +90, Elem Def +116, Elem Atk. +42).  Reduces Ophilia's durability to 0.79 (physical) and 0.89 (elemental), but gains some damage.

Passives:
Persistence: Positive buffs cleric receives last for one additional turn
Inner Strength: Increases max SP by 50
Evil Ward: Increases success rate when fleeing
Saving Grace: Can be healed above maximum HP.  Cannot be healed further if HP is already over max.

Staff attack: 5 staff damage.  (w/ Morning Star: 120 staff damage)
Heal Wounds: 1050 HP healing for all allies.  8 SP.  [w/ Primeval Robe & Adamantine Shield: 1120 HP healing]
Holy Light: 415 light damage. 6 SP.  (w/ Elemental Heavy Armor: 470 light damage)
Sheltering Veil: Grants Elem. Def. up buff for 3 (2) turns, -33% damage from magic. 6 SP.
Luminescence: 290 light damage to all foes. 9 SP.
Heal More: 1585 HP healing for all allies. 25 SP.  (Boosted: 2105 / 2625 / 3165).  [w/ Primeval Robe & Adamantine Shield: 1690 HP]
Reflective Veil: Buff that reflects one elemental attack.  Damage/status is negated and strikes opponent.  Stacks. Lasts until used.  22 SP. *
Revive: Revive all dead allies at 1 HP, unless boosted where it uses the healing formula. Does not heal living allies.  50 SP.
Aelfric’s Auspices (Divine skill): Skills by chosen ally will trigger twice for 3 turns. Does not affect divine skills.  30 SP, req. 3 BP to use.

* Note that Reflective Veil's damage reflection's rate is actually better than you'd think.  Common boss big spell damage of 1000 or so (= average damage, .40 PCHP or so?) is reflected at face value, which is great for a single action.

Guide / Summon
Ophilia can recruit townspeople to follow her, level permitting.  Some towns also let you Guide higher-level recruits than normal if you Scrutinize/Inquire the right person.  I've chosen the Saintsbridge Knight Ardante, 'cuz he rules, is in an Ophilia-plot town and is part of Ophilia's church, and has a potential town Guide boost to make him easier to grab anyway (he requires L45 if you don't do the Scrutinize, L40 or so with?). 

It costs an action to summon, and just the helper will act on that turn.  For the next 4-5 turns, the helper will do an action AND Ophilia can act.  You can't control what actions the helper takes or how they target the single-target actions, however.

Saintsbridge Knight Ardante
Axe attack: 700 axe damage, high critical rate
Full swing: 890 axe damage to all, high critical rate
Glacies Caldera: 3x hits of 610 ice damage (1830 total)
Average damage: 1140



Cyrus, the Scholar

2170 (1970) HP, 195 (142) SP
526 (162) Phys. Def, 608 (217) Elem. Def, 212 (162) Speed, 112 (181) Avoid
62 (162) Phys. Atk, 570 (235) Elem. Atk, 181 Accuracy, 94 (144) Critical
0.80 PCHP, 0.80 Physical Durability, 0.87 Elemental Durability, -0.85 std. dev from average speed

Forbidden Staff (Phys. Atk. −100, Elem. Atk. +285, Critical −50)

Alternate equips:
Morning Star (Phys. Atk. +196, Elem. Atk. +102, Critical +72).  Better staff beatdown, worse magic.
Elemental Heavy Armor (Phys. Def +90, Elem Def +116, Elem Atk. +42).  Reduces Cyrus's durability to 0.69 (physical) and 0.75 (elemental), but gains some damage.

Passives:
Evasive Maneuvers: Reduces rate of random encounters.
Elemental Augmentation: Increases Elem. Atk. by 50.
Percipience: Prevents party from being surprised by foes.
Vim and Vigor: Regenerate 10% of max HP each turn.

Staff attack: 5 staff damage.  (w/ Morning Star: 105 staff damage)
Fireball, Icewind, Lightning Bolt: 360 (fire/ice/lightning) damage to all foes. 8 SP.  Boosts at 0.9 rate.  (w/ Elemental Heavy Armor: 405 elemental damage)
Analyze: Reveal the current and maximum HP and 1 weakness of a single foe.  1 SP.
Fire Storm, Blizzard, Lightning Blast: 2x hits of 330 (fire/ice/lightning) damage to all foes (total: 655). 22 SP.  Boosts at 0.95 rate.  (w/ Elemental Heavy Armor: 2x hits of 365 elemental damage, total 735)
Alephan’s Enlightenment (Divine skill): Skills done by chosen ally that usually targets all foes will for 3 turns target one foe and do double damage. Does not affect divine skills or physical attacks.  30 SP, req. 3 BP.



Tressa, the Merchant

2909 (2709) HP, 172 (119) SP
545 (181) Phys. Def, 572 (181) Elem. Def, 338 (162) Speed, 93 (162) Avoid
474 (199) Phys. Atk, 408 (199) Elem. Atk, 181 Accuracy, 162 Critical
1.07 PCHP, 1.10 Physical Durability, 1.08 Elemental Durability, +0.54 std. dev from average speed

Seraphim Spear (Phys. Atk. +275, Speed +126, chance of confuse on hit)
Adamantine Bow (Phys. Atk. +178, Elem Atk. +209)

Alternate equips:
Soul Glaive (Phys. Atk. +121, Elem Atk. +252).  Lose speed to get magic damage.
Yeti’s Longbow (Phys. Atk. +229, Critical +95, chance of blind on hit).  Better bow physicals.
Elemental Heavy Armor (Phys. Def +90, Elem Def +116, Elem Atk. +42).  This reduces Tressa's durability to 0.96 (physical) and 0.97 (elemental), but gains magic damage.

Passives:
Endless Items: 25% chance of not consuming items.
Grows on Trees: Gain 10% more money after battles.
Hang Tough: When above 30% HP, otherwise lethal attacks instead leave Merchant with 1 HP.
SP Saver: Halves SP consumption in battle, rounded down.  Baked into SP prices below.

Spear attack: 195 polearm damage.
Bow attack: 120 bow damage.  (w/ Yeti's Longbow: 160 bow damage)
Collect: Get money.  Indirectly a way to check current enemy HP by looking at % chance of success.  1 SP.
Tradewinds: 295 wind damage. 3 SP.  (w/ Soul Glaive: 350 wind damage.  w/ Soul Glaive & Elemental Heavy Armor: 405 wind damage.)
Rest: Restores 565 HP / 25 SP and cures status ailments.  0 SP.  (Boosted: 735 HP / 50 SP; 905HP / 75 SP; 1075 HP / 100 SP)
Trade Tempest: 190 wind damage to all foes. 5 SP. Boosts at 0.9 rate.
Donate BP: Grant 1 BP to an ally other than self. 1 SP.
Sidestep: Dodge a single physical attack with a 100% success rate. Stacks. Lasts until used.  5 SP.
Hired Help: Pay money to summon allies.  See below.  0 SP.
Bifelgan’s Bounty (Divine skill): 1765 non-elemental damage elemental attack; receive money equal to damage dealt (or equal to remaining HP if it kills target).  15 SP, req. 3 BP.  (w/ Soul Glaive: 2100 non-elemental damage.  w/ Soul Glaive & Elemental Heavy Armor: 2425 non-elemental damage.) *

* Yes, Bifelgan's Bounty is basically a magic attack whose element is non-elemental.  However 8PT calls the magic stat "elemental attack" so it's a bit confusing.  It's still buffed by Peacock Strut or better Elemental Attack gear, and so on.

Hired Help:
If this move is allowed at all, Tressa's budget for this is pretty important.  Tressa by far gets you the most money of the cast simply by existing (her personal skill collects money by traveling through dungeon screens, she sometimes gets big discounts on items she purchases, Merchant Grows on Trees passive, Collect, Bifelgan's Bounty), but you can't realistically spam Cleric or Veteran Soldier all the time, so you figure out a budget.  For the "anything goes" average, I've assumed a starting budget of 12,000, which gives a single Cleric summon + tons of Mercenary summons if Tressa wants the defense buff from him.  (...and if a truly bizarre match happens where Tressa can cast Bifelgan's Bounty a bunch of times, she might be able to summon Veteran Soldier after all...)

Mercenary: 150 cost, 5 sword damage to all, buff all allies Physical Defense for 2 turns (take -33% damage from physical attacks)
Bandit: 800 cost, 50 axe damage to all
Dancer: 2500 cost, 130 dagger damage to all, chance of inflicting status ailments (seems unlikely? Not closely tested)
Cleric: 10000 cost, 800 light damage to all
Veteran Soldier: 30000 cost, 4600 sword damage to all, high critical rate



Olberic, the Warrior

3401 (3201) HP, 148 (95) SP
563 (199) Phys. Def, 535 (144) Elem. Def, 331 (181) Speed, 75 (144) Avoid
489 (217) Phys. Atk, 343 (162) Elem. Atk, 199 Accuracy, 181 Critical
1.25 PCHP, 1.33 Physical Durability, 1.19 Elemental Durability, +0.46 std. dev from average speed

Trinity Sword (Phys. Atk. +222, Speed +100)
Seraphim Spear (Phys. Atk. +275, Speed +126, chance of confuse on hit)

Passives:
Cover: Absorb single-targeted damage for allies who are below 30% HP.
Summon Strength: Increases Phys. Atk. by 50.
Endure: When afflicted with a status ailment (poison, sleep, confusion, blindness, silence, terror, or unconsciousness), grants Phys. Def. and Elem. Def. up buffs (reduces damage taken by 33%).
Surpassing Power: Raises the damage cap of the equipping character from 9,999 to 99,999.  (This matters in-game for, say, buff'd Brand's Thunders hitting broken targets.)

Sword attack: 210 sword damage.
Spear attack: 250 polearm damage.
Level Slash:  165 sword damage to all. 9 SP. Boosts at 0.9.
Abide: Grants self Phys. Atk. up buff for 3 turns (+50% damage). 4 SP.
Spearhead: 430 polearm damage.  Act first next turn, even before defending characters, but not before enemies recovering from Break.  6 SP.
Incite: Become the primary target of foes for 3 turns. 4 SP.
Cross Strike: 510 sword damage.  Not as affected by enemy defense compared to most other attacks (good vs. tanky bosses). 12 SP.
Stout Wall: Grants self Phys. Def. up buff for 3 turns.  Reduces damage taken by -33%. 4 SP.
Thousand Spears: 5-10 randomly targeted attacks of 165 polearm damage.  Horrendously inaccurate, ignores accuracy & evasion, but hits a minimum of 3 times (total: 495 damage).  Highly enemy defense-subject (worse vs. tanky bosses, better vs. low-def enemies).  20 SP.  Boosts at a 0.4 rate.
Brand’s Thunder (Divine skill): 3565 sword damage.  Not as affected by enemy defense than most attacks (good vs. tanky bosses).   30 SP.  Requires 3 BP.



Primrose, the Dancer

2416 (2216) HP, 172 (119) SP
490 (126) Phys. Def, 535 (144) Elem. Def, 413 (235) Speed, 130 (199) Avoid
423 (181) Phys. Atk, 433 (217) Elem. Atk, 181 Accuracy, 181 Critical
0.89 PCHP, 0.83 Physical Durability, 0.84 Elemental Durability, +1.36 std. dev from average speed

Ultimate Breaker (Phys. Atk. +242, Speed +128, chance of inflicting confusion.)

Alternate equips:
Legion Dagger (Phys. Atk. +263, Evasion +129).  For an evade setup and mildly more dagger damage, but less speed.
Soul Knife (Phys. Atk. +98, Elem. Atk. +188).  If you don't allow a subclass elemental attack weapon, Primrose is stuck with this for magic, and loses both speed and damage compared to her listed values.
Elemental Heavy Armor (Phys. Def +90, Elem Def +116, Elem Atk. +42).  Reduces Primrose's durability to 0.73 (physical) and 0.76 (elemental), but gains a little damage.

Passives:
The Show Goes On: Buffs and status effects granted to allies persist for one more turn.
Eye for an Eye: 50% chance of counterattacking with current weapon after being targeted by a physical attack (hit or miss). Does not trigger enemy counter-attacks.
Second Wind: Recover 5% of max SP each turn, rounded up.  With 172 max SP, that is 9 SP a round.
Encore: Once per battle, recover with 25% of maximum HP upon dying. Dancer still loses all buffs, debuffs, and BP.

Dagger attack: 155 dagger damage.
Lion Dance: Grant one ally Phys. Atk. up buff for 3 (2) turns (+50% phys damage). 4 SP.
Moonlight Waltz: 330 dark damage. 7 SP.  (w/ Elemental Heavy Armor: 380 dark damage)
Peacock Strut: Grant one ally Elem. Atk. up buff for 3 (2) turns (+50% elemental damage). 4 SP.
Mole Dance: Grant one ally Phys. Def. up buff for 3 (2) turns (takes -33% less damage). 4 SP.
Night Ode: 220 dark damage to all foes. 10 SP.  Boosts at 0.9 rate.
Panther Dance: Grants one ally Speed up buff for 2 turns (+50% Speed score).  Also moves that ally's next turn up one place.  See below.*  4 SP.
Bewildering Grace: Causes a random effect to occur.  Not, in general, useful unless extremely desperate. See this spreadsheet for possible effects. 25 SP.
Sealticge’s Seduction (Divine skill): For 3 turns, skills performed by a single ally that usually target one ally/foe will affect all allies/foes instead. Does not affect divine skills.  30 SP, req. 3 BP.

* While the Panther's Grace speed buff itself won't kick in until 2 turns later, the guaranteed advance will affect the next turn.  Note that in a duel against a single-acting opponent, this basically guarantees going before them the next turn even if they're faster.  In normal boss fights, this single-slot guaranteed advance is less potent since you're dealing with 3 ally turns  and a triple-turning boss, so you might respect it less.  Also note that the speed buff will also affect a turn after it technically expired.

Allure / Summon
Primrose can get townspeople and the like to follow her for a set number of in-battle summons.  She can hypothetically get higher level townspeople than the level-locked Ophilia…  but it'll be at like a 10% rate, and in exchange she can fail and cause reputation loss even on uninspiring recruits.  In an attempt to have an "efficient" allure recruit, I've used an Usher just outside Primrose's C4 in Everhold.  (I guess you TECHNICALLY need to start her C4 for that, but not the dungeon part.)

It costs an action to summon, and just the helper will act on that turn.  For the next 4-5 turns, the helper will do an action AND Primrose can act.  You can't control what actions the helper takes or how they target the single-target actions, however.  If Primrose dies, the helper will retreat, even if she just immediately Encore resurrects.

Everhold Usher
Attack: 300 polearm damage
Thrash: 400 polearm damage to all
Peerless Strike: 650 polearm damage
Average: 450

I provide this one for people who are okay with repeatedly farming a 9% Allure chance.  Protip do this in a town with a cheap Restore Reputation cost.  Not even in the Anything Goes average.
Clearbrook Old Woman Who Is A Former Assassin
Staff attack: 1200 staff damage
Pummel: 1300 staff damage
Mighty Blow: 1600 staff damage
Average: 1365 damage



Alfyn, the Apothecary

3655 (2955) HP, 172 (119) SP
545 (181) Phys. Def, 572 (181) Elem. Def, 194 (144) Speed, 93 (162) Avoid
427 (199) Phys. Atk, 362 (181) Elem. Atk, 279 (181) Accuracy, 181 Critical
1.31 PCHP, 1.35 Physical Durability, 1.33 Elemental Durability, -1.04 std. dev from average speed

Gargantuan Axe (Phys. Atk. +248, Accuracy +98, chance to inflict Phys. Def. down debuff)

Alternate equips:
Adamantine Hatchet (Phys. Atk. +112, Elem. Atk. +230).  Better magic damage.

Passives:
Inspiration: Regular attacks restore SP equal to 1% of damage dealt, rounded up.
Hale and Hearty: Increases maximum HP by 500.
Resist Ailments: Improves resistance to poison, sleep, confusion, blindness, silence, terror, and unconsciousness.*
Heightened Healing: Gain an additional 30% HP or SP when being healed or restored.

Axe attack: 160 axe damage.  Restores 2 SP.
First Aid: Restores 2745 (2110) HP to a single ally. 4 SP.  (Boosted: 3840 HP w/ 1 BP)
Icicle: 235 ice damage. 7 SP.  (w/ Adamantine Hatchet: 300 ice damage)
Rehabilitate: Cure a single ally of all status ailments (not debuffs), and render them immune to further ailments for 2 turns.  10 SP.
Amputation: 520 axe damage (including crit).  Hugely increased chance of critical (~70% chance?).  Less accurate than most attacks; vs. normalish enemies, ~75% accuracy; vs. dodgy and powerful enemies, ~60% accuracy; vs. broken enemies, 100% (as is most everything in the game).  Notable accuracy hit if a Adamantine Hatchet used.  Less subject to enemy defense than most attacks (=better against tanky bosses).  8 SP.
Empoison: Poison a single foe for 2 turns.  Poison deals 1/6th (16.7%) max HP damage each turn to normal enemies & PCs, and 1% max HP each turn to bosses.  Yes, Octopath Traveler Poison can be fatal and finish off enemies / PCs.  6 SP.
Vivify: Revives and heals a single dead ally. Does not affect living allies. 16 SP.
Last Stand: 240 axe damage to all.  Gets a damage boost when below half health, up to a maximum of 2.5x normal damage at 1 HP.  16 SP.
Dohter’s Charity (Divine skill): For 3 turns, items used by a single chosen ally will affect all. Works with Concoct, as well.  30 SP.  Requires 3 BP.**

* Not 100% sure the effect of Resist Ailments, but against Alfyn's C4 boss, everybody else would consistently get statused by the boss's MT damage + status moves, while Alfyn was considerably less likely to get hit.  At least a 50% reduction in hit rate, maybe a little more (66% reduction?).  Note that this list of resisted ailments does NOT include Petrification, which is a super-status in 8PT.

** Storebought items to use with Dohter's Charity include Healing Grape (M) for 1750 healing, Inspiriting Plum (M) for 100 SP restoration, and various status effect restoration items.  Inspiriting Plum (M)s cost 900, Healing Grape (M)s cost 260.


Concoct

The tier 1 mixes are so cheap that they are effectively free (they cost 10-45 money).  For the tier 2 mixes, Purifying Seeds & Injurious Seeds cost 2600.  The Dusts (multitarget equivalent) cost 3200.  The base healing amount is listed, not the amount with Heightened Healing passive baked in.

Note that the multi-hit mixes have more chances to proc the status, and can proc it multiple times (which will result in a long duration).  The listed damage is not a typo; the mixes are still quite useful, they're just more for # of hits to break a weakness and chance of status than it is for the puny damage.

Soothing Seed x Noxroot: Restores 200 HP, Cures poison
Soothing Seed x Essence of Grape: Restores 1000 HP

Soothing Dust x Noxroot: Restores 100 HP, Cures poison (All allies)
Soothing Dust x Essence of Grape: Restores 800 HP (All allies)

Purifying Seed x Noxroot: Restores 3000 HP, Cures poison
Purifying Seed x Essence of Grape: Restores 9999 HP

Purifying Dust x Noxroot: Restores 1600 HP, Cures poison (All allies)
Purifying Dust x Essence of Grape: Restores 3000 HP (All allies)


Injurious Seed x Noxroot: 2x hits of 5 damage fire attack (10), occasionally poisons target
Injurious Seed x Essence of Grape: 2x hits of 5 damage wind attack (10), occasionally lowers Phys. Def. (see Thief's Armor Corrosive)

Injurious Dust x Noxroot: 5 damage fire attack, Occasionally poisons target (All foes)
Injurious Dust x Essence of Grape: 5 damage wind attack, Occasionally lowers Phys. Def (All foes)

Ruinous Seed x Noxroot: Flaming Powder, 3x hits of 5 fire damage (15), Occasionally poisons target
Ruinous Seed x Essence of Grape: Gusting Powder, 3x hits of 5 wind damage (15), Occasionally lower Phys. Def.

Ruinous Dust x Noxroot: Flaming Cloud, 2x hits of 5 fire damage (10), Occasionally poisons target (All foes)
Ruinous Dust x Essence of Grape: Gusting Cloud, 2x hits of 5 wind damage (10), Occasionally lower Phys. Def. (All foes)

I recommend a 6500 money "budget".  This is enough for 2x uses of the powerful Purifying or Ruinous line, but not 3x uses, nearly endless tier 1 mixes, and potentially a few Inspiriting Plums (if allowed when using Dohter's Charity).

You might wish to allow the non-storebought components, which you get off steals & drops.  I personally don't.  Check a guide for what you get if you do - stuff like granting 4 BP, restoring SP, more types of elemental damage with status, and so on.



Therion, the Thief

2663 (2463) HP, 148 (95) SP
508 (144) Phys. Def, 535 (144) Elem. Def, 445 (217) Speed, 148 (217) Avoid
441 (199) Phys. Atk, 397 (181) Elem. Atk, 199 Accuracy, 181 Critical
0.98 PCHP, 0.95 Physical Durability, 0.93 Elemental Durability, +1.71 std. dev from average speed

Ultimate Breaker (Phys. Atk. +242, Speed +128, chance of inflicting confusion.)
Trinity Sword (Phys. Atk. +222, Speed +100)

Alternate equips:
Legion Dagger (Phys. Atk. +263, Evasion +129).  For an evade setup and mildly more dagger damage, but less speed and less Aeber's Reckoning damage.

Passives:
Incidental Attack: 50% chance of attacking with currently equipped weapon after using a nondamaging skill on a foe. (e.g. Steal, Shackle Foe, Armor Corrosive, etc.)
Fleetfoot: Increases Speed by 50.
Snatch: Gain twice the loot when using Steal or Collect.
Insult to Injury: Status ailments and debuffs last for one more turn.

Dagger attack: 170 Dagger damage
Sword attack: 155 Sword damage
Steal: Steal an item.  Indirectly a way to check current enemy HP by looking at % chance of success.  2 SP.
Wildfire: 280 fire damage. 7 SP.
HP Thief: 2x hits of 260 dagger damage (515 total).  Steals HP equal to half the damage dealt (255 HP healing), or half the target’s remaining HP if the attack kills. 6 SP.  Boosts at 0.8 rate.  (w/ Legion Dagger: 560 damage, 280 healing.)
Shackle Foe: Inflict Phys. Atk. down debuff (deals -33% usual damage) on foe for 3 (2) turns. 4 SP.
Armor Corrosive: Inflict Phys. Def. down debuff (takes +50% damage) on foe for 3 (2) turns. 4 SP.
Steal SP: 2x hits of 260 dagger damage (515 total).  Steals SP equal to 5% of the damage dealt (26 SP), or 5% of the target’s remaining HP if the attack kills.  6 SP.  Boosts at 0.8 rate.
Share SP: Give 50% of your current SP to an ally. Can overfill target’s SP (remains above max until end of battle). 0 SP.
Aeber’s Reckoning (Divine skill): 3815 dagger damage to all.  Scales with current speed score (i.e. will do less damage if currently speed debuffed).  30 SP, req. 3 BP.  (w/ Legion Dagger: 3460 dagger damage)



H'aanit, the Hunter

2663 (2463) HP, 148 (95) SP
508 (144) Phys. Def, 535 (144) Elem. Def, 231 (181) Speed, 130 (199) Avoid
446 (217) Phys. Atk, 411 (181) Elem. Atk, 217 Accuracy, 344 (199) Critical
0.98 PCHP, 0.95 Physical Durability, 0.93 Elemental Durability, -0.64 std. dev from average speed

Yeti’s Longbow (Phys. Atk. +229, Critical +95, chance of blind on hit)
Adamantine Hatchet (Phys. Atk. +112, Elem. Atk. +230)

Alternate equips:
Gargantuan Axe (Phys. Atk. +248, Accuracy +98, chance to inflict Phys. Def. down debuff).  Better axe damage, fishing for def-down procs.

Passives:
Heighten Senses: Party gains an increased chance of attacking first in battle.
Eagle Eye: Increases critical rate by 50.
Second Serving: 50% chance of attacking an extra time when performing a standard attack.
Patience: 25% chance of acting again at the end of a turn.  Don't gain BP on this turn, and boosting on any turn disables BP gain for the next turn.

Bow attack: 175 bow damage.  (50% chance of double attack.)
Axe attack: 80 axe damage.  (50% chance of double attack.)  (w/ Gargantuan Axe: 190 axe damage)
Rain of Arrows: 5-8 randomly targeted attacks for 65 bow damage.  Ignores evasion & accuracy, very inaccurate but guaranteed to hit at least 3 times (total: 200).  Highly enemy defense-subject (worse vs. tanky bosses, better vs. low-def enemies).  8 SP.  Boosts at 0.4 rate. 
True Strike: 440 bow damage, hugely increased chance of critical (crit assumed included in damage).  10 SP.
Thunderbird: 300 lightning damage. 7 SP.
Leghold Trap: Debuff foe to act at the end of the turn for 2 turns.  Does not apply on the current turn. Applies to next turn, including applying to the next turn when it wears off.  6 SP.
Mercy Strike: 220 bow damage.  Otherwise lethal attacks instead leave the target with 1 HP.  4 SP.
Arrowstorm: 5-8 attacks for 60 bow damage against all.  Ignores evasion & accuracy, very inaccurate but guaranteed to hit a minimum of 3 times (total: 185).  Highly enemy defense-subject (worse vs. tanky bosses, better vs. low-def enemies).  24 SP.  Boosts at 0.4 rate.
Take Aim: Grants Accuracy up buff and Critical up buff to all allies for 2 turns.  8 SP.
Draefendi’s Rage (Divine skill): 2195 bow damage to all.  30 SP, req. 3 BP.

Capture:
A chance to defeat & capture a monster; rate improves as HP declines, and if the enemy is broken.  Think throwing a Pokeball.  Probably only useful against DL Pokemon.

Summon Beast: 
I've listed capturable enemies from Path to the Whitewood and The Whitewood, aka H'aanit's Chapter 3.  H'aanit can only store 6 beasts at once, not including Linde, which she always has access to.  She can't pick a target for the ones that affect a single-target, however, and it is chosen randomly.

When in doubt, assume they boost at a 1x rate.  Tested on Snow Leopard and it does indeed deal 4x damage.

Linde: 60 sword or polearm damage, infinite charges.
Snow Leopard: Double Soporific Claw, 2x hits of 450 sword damage (900 total), chance of sleep, high critical rate (50%?), 5 charges.  (Annoying/difficult to capture.)
Hoary Bear: Enraged Bash (All), 2x hits of 190 staff damage to all (380 total), 5 charges
Ice Elemental: Freeze (All), 260 ice damage to all, 5 charges
Hoary Howler: Mighty Stab, 190 dagger damage to all, 5 charges
Frostwing Serpent: Wind Slash, 120 wind damage, 5 charges
Majestic Snow Marmot: Mighty Slash, 100 sword damage, 5 charges
Winter Wanderweed: Shoot, 70 bow damage, 4 charges
Avalanche Mushroom: Restore Great Health, restores 1000 health to a RANDOM party member, 3 charges.

[SnowFire]

Cast average charts

Here's the spreadsheet I used with the full averages with both unequipped and equipped stats:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Y9y4VZrQYjLIKoSUY-WrAkUvAqLf7iFeIKLNse0l2zU/edit?usp=sharing

Possibly controversial note: I have ignored two passive stat boosting skills in this, Alfyn's Hale and Hearty (+500 max HP) and Therion's Fleetfoot (+50 Spd).  Honestly, I'd be tempted to also ignore Cyrus & Olberic's attack buffs as well if I wasn't lazy, but eh, adjust the damage average a tiny amount down if you want.  Most characters have 1-2 skill slots they'd cheerfully drop as DL-worthless, and could easily and cheaply by end-game get some low-end stat boosting skills themselves (it's 630 JP to learn 3 skills in another job and unlock those passive skills like Fleetfoot or Elemental Augmentation, so, basically nothing).  So not really respecting holding those against the rest of the cast.

Also, Alfyn's Amputation damage is adjusted by -33% to reflect both accuracy issues as well as that it won't always crit, even if it crits more frequently than it doesn't.


HP: 2724 (equipped); 2787 (w/ Alfyn passive); 2524 (base, no equipment/skills)
Speed: 289 (equipped); 295 (w/ Therion passive); 178 (base, no equipment/skills)
P. Attack: 349 (equipped); 355 (w/ Olberic passive); 217 (base, no equipment/skills)
E. Attack: 422 (equipped); 428 (w/ Cyrus passive); 197(base, no equipment/skills)
P. Defense: 529 (equipped); 165 (base)
E. Defense: 565 (equipped); 174 (base)

For all of these damage sets, assume the final action is max boost'd with all remaining BP.

1-round damage, Natural
1. 1275, Cyrus: Fire Storm
2. 1015, Olberic: Cross Strike
3. 930, Therion: HP Thief
4. 875, H'aanit: True Strike
5. 835, Ophilia: Holy Light
6. 690*, Alfyn: Amputation (1035)
7. 655, Primrose: Moonlight Waltz
8. 590, Tressa: Tradewinds
Average: 860 (2.5x killpoint: 2145)

1-round damage, Anything Goes
1. 1800, H'aanit: Summon Beast: Snow Leopard
2. 1600, Tressa: Hired Help: Cleric
3. 1275, Cyrus: Fire Storm
4. 1140, Ophilia: Summon
5. 1015, Olberic: Cross Strike
6. 930, Therion: HP Thief
7. 690*, Alfyn: Amputation (1035)
8. 655, Primrose: Moonlight Waltz
Average: 1140 (2.5x killpoint: 2845)


2-round damage, Natural
1. 2550, Cyrus: Fire Storm x2
2. 2285, Olberic: Abide -> Cross Strike
3. 2010, Therion: Armor Corrosive -> HP Thief
4. 1750, H'aanit: True Strike x2
5. 1670, Ophilia: Holy Light x2
6. 1475, Primrose: Peacock Strut -> Moonlight Waltz
7. 1380*, Alfyn: Amputation x2 (2070)
8. 1180, Tressa: Tradewinds x2
Average: 1790 (2.5x killpoint: 2235)

2-round damage, Anything Goes
1. 3600, H'aanit: Summon Beast: Snow Leopard x2
2. 3530, Ophilia: Summon -> Holy Light
3. 2695, Tressa: Tradewinds -> Hired Help: Cleric
4. 2550, Cyrus: Fire Storm x2
5. 2285, Olberic: Abide -> Cross Strike
6. 2010, Therion: Armor Corrosive -> HP Thief
7. 1380*, Alfyn: Amputation x2 (2070)
8. 1885, Primrose: Summon -> Moonlight Waltz
Average: 2490 (2.5x killpoint: 3115)


3-round damage, Natural
1. 6500, Therion: Armor Corrosive -> HP Thief -> Aeber's Reckoning
2. 6110, Olberic: Abide -> Cross Strike -> Brand's Thunder
3. 3825, Cyrus: Fire Storm x3
4. 3070, H'aanit: True Strike x2 -> Draefendi's Rage
5. 2500, Ophilia: Holy Light x3
6. 2460, Primrose: Peacock Strut -> Moonlight Waltz x2
7. 2355, Tressa: Tradewinds x2 -> Bifelgan's Bounty
8. 2075*, Alfyn: Amputation x3 (3110)
Average: 3610 (2.5x killpoint: 3010)

3-round damage, Anything Goes
1. 6500, Therion: Armor Corrosive -> HP Thief -> Aeber's Reckoning
2. 6110, Olberic: Abide -> Cross Strike -> Brand's Thunder
3. 5505, Ophilia: Summon -> Holy Light x2
4. 5400, H'aanit: Summon Beast: Snow Leopard x3
5. 3825, Cyrus: Fire Storm x3
6. 3790, Tressa: Tradewinds x2 -> Hired Help: Cleric
7. 3320, Primrose: Summon -> Peacock Strut -> Moonlight Waltz
8. 2075*, Alfyn: Amputation x3 (3110)
Average: 4565 (2.5x killpoint: 3805)


Not doing the full 4-round charts, just take the 3-round charts and add in an unbuffed, no-BP spent attack.  (Okay, and maybe the helper hanging around for Prim & Ophilia in Anything Goes.)
4-round damage, Natural
Average: 4050 (2.5x killpoint: 2530)

4-round damage, Anything Goes
Average: 5260 (2.5x killpoint: 3285)

Killpoint average of 1/2/3/4 turns, Natural: 2480
Killpoint average of 1/2/3/4 turns, Anything Goes: 3265

[SnowFire]

Appendix

Defend command
The entire cast has a Defense command which reduces damage and makes it so that they go first the next round (well, barring recovering broken enemies or someone who used Warrior's Spearhead skill).  Basically, this means that if you're slower than your opponent, you can give up your 2nd turn to Defend in order to outspeed on your third turn and unleash a Divine Skill.

Critical hits
All damage listed above is the base damage.  Critical hits inflict 1.25x damage, but aren't super common.  Ha'anit is the main person who might benefit as she has a high crit rate and Rain of Arrows is a lot of hits, but in general, weapons that are optimizing for crit is worse than just optimizing for more damage, so not really respecting this much.  Note that H'aanit's True Strike and Alfyn's Amputation both guarantee a crit, so crit is baked in there.  Summon Snow Leopard also has a pretty good crit rate, feels like 40-50% or so (not included in damage average).

Accuracy and Evasion

No, I don't know how the formula works.  It's pretty subtle in effect; even if Olberic duels random 1 star townsfolk, they will still have a 50/50 rate of hitting him, rather than 0/100.

In general, I'd say that the default equips have the cast at "rather unevasive" (will get hit even by inaccurate foes), which might be an issue vs. the likes of GBA Fire Emblem axemen.  On the other hand, the cast can equip evasion gear and get modestly evasive (20% miss rate?), or equip LOTS of evasion gear, and get more like a 50% miss rate from enemies.  (Silent Cape + Silent Bandana + Kite Shield = +327 evade vs. default stated evade, at a defense / elemental defense hit.)

As for PC accuracy vs. enemies, PCs are quite accurate in general.  Caits & their ilk (the DQ Metal Slime equivalents) have a very high dodge rate, and a few notable randoms are dodgy (e.g. Revenants in H'aanit's C4 dungeon, the Grimsand Ruins) but you won't miss often against anything else, unless you have Cyrus using Amputate or something.

Summon / Capture

Haanit can capture low-HP monsters and store up to 6 of them for later use in battle.  Bit of a FF6 Gau situation here.  Did you know that if you farm one specific zone you have a 20% chance of encountering an enemy where your capture rate is still 20% even at 1 HP and broken but you can get a super-powerful monster with 3 whole uses?!  (When you could have spent that time chipping turbo-grinding like 5 battles faster with indiscriminate MT damage…)  Ha'anit gets healing, magic attacks of all elements, various status attacks, etc. if you let her have the whole bestiary.  That isn't my style.  What I did above is list Haanit's Chapter 3 (The Whitewood near Stillsnow) enemies and assuming you recruited all of them, nothing else.  I think that's a fair compromise for what H'aanit will have access to for her C4 that gives her some flexibility, but not all the flexibility.  Note the dang Snow Leopards at 1 HP while broken still have like a 20% capture rate before boosts, and can heal if your capture misses, so have fun.

Guide / Allure

Similar issue here, but less headachey, since many of these targets hang around for awhile and have more uses than capturing a beasts and, once you know you want them, are easy to find and recruit.  You might disallow it on "it's a duel" rules of course (e.g. people skeptical of Fire Emblem 9 Tanith reinforce hype).  And in Allure's case, you can pretty reasonably restrict it to targets you'll have a 50%+ allure rate on.  Which means it's gonna be a lot worse than Guide.

More on default & legal equipment

Armor:
I have arbitrarily banned Elemental Light Armor (Phys. Def. +88, Elem. Def. +108, Speed +72).  It's one of only 2 armors that increases speed, the godstat of the DL, and it is storebought, although it does require an Alfyn / Cyrus Inquire/Scrutinize to extend a shop.  The cast is already encouraged to massively overload on speed (akin to BoF3 characters tossing off their armor to get faster), no need to go even deeper.  Amusingly enough, Dragon's Vest (Phys. Def. +183, Elem. Def. +185) also requires a Scrutinize to unlock, but it's not a big deal if banned; Platinum Vest is not a huge downgrade and keeps largely equivalent PDef / EDef too (Phys. Def. +140, Elem. Def. +154).

Accessories:
I'm not assuming 2x Sprightly Bracelets (Speed +50) to max speed in the accessory slot.  And if I did, it wouldn't actually "help" the cast get faster relative to each other.  Instead, I went with 1x Sprightly Bracelet and an Empowering Ring (Max. HP +200).  You have 5x better HP buffer accessories (e.g. HP +1000, HP +600) in game which help flatten the HP curve and make characters like Cyrus & Ophilia less frail than they look; I've elected to assume the storebought Empowering Ring which flattens the HP curve a bit and also makes healing relatively less potent, which I feel helps match the in-game experience more than everybody piling on more speed.

EDIT: Empowering Bracelet is storebought in Saintsbridge, the guide was misleading.  Okay, so arguably the HP+500 accessory should be used instead, but too late.  Make the HP curve flatter but healing slightly worse if you want.

Helmets:
I went with Enchanted Circlet (Phys. Def. +79, Elem. Def. +104, Max SP +53) over Oasis Hat (Phys. Def. +103, Elem. Def. +112) because the relatively small increase in defense doesn't seem worth it compared to the major SP boost for slow/stally matches.  If you disagree, feel free to charge the cast like 2% of their durability when they want the extra SP.

Shields:
Force Shield (Phys. Def. +102, Elem. Def. +102, Evasion -69) seems clearly the best option, unless you're optimizing for evasion.

General defense thoughts: Dragon's Vest & Force Shield nicely balance out defense stats.  I don't really respect using some of the P. Def-only with no frills equips in-game (e.g. Dragon's Helm, Gargantuan Shield, Platinum Armor); while there are a few bosses who are beatdown only (Olberic's C4 boss, appropriately enough!), in general completely neglecting elemental defense isn't real wise.   Some duelers (Ophilia) might occasionally want to use Primeval Robe (Phys. Def. +99, Elem. Def. +198, Max SP +35) for the extra SP and mildly better healing if they're willing to eat the physical defense hit, though.

Swords:
Pretty easy, Trinity Sword (Phys. Atk. +222, Speed +100) is storebought and The Best at both speed & P. Atk.  Storebought Dragon Saber might be nice but it's locked behind finishing Olberic C8 I believe.

Polearms:
Seraphim Spear (Phys. Atk. +275, Speed +126, confuse proc) requires a Scrutinize to buy, but it's a comparatively easy one to achieve.  Victor's Spear isn't too bad a downgrade in P. Atk / Spd if you ban Seraphim's anyway (Phys. Atk. +212, Speed +99).  Soul Glaive is your mage option (Phys. Atk. +121, Elem Atk. +252).

Daggers:
The most headachey one!  Lots of good ones but they're not usually storebought, hence the "eh allow the 2nd best" deal.  Best is Viper Dagger, a Tressa Purchase in Grandport, but we're ignoring that (very good in-game, though).  Second-best is Ultimate Breaker (Phys. Atk. +242, Speed +128, confuses procs), another Tressa Purchase, so that's the default for Therion & Primrose.  If you use 4th-best dagger, then we're down to the Justice Breaker (Phys Atk. +166, Speed +98), and if you use storebought-only, enjoy your dated Chainbreaker (Phys. Atk. +82, Speed +58).  Okay, not really, you just abandon speed and go for the Legion Dagger (Phys. Atk. +263, Evasion +129), which does require a scrutinize but it's not so bad.  Might occasionally be useful if an evasion-heavy setup is needed anyway for Primrose.

In the same way, there are some good elemental attack daggers, but they aren't generally legal.  If Primrose isn't allowed to assume an off-class Elemental Attack holder weapon, she's stuck with the Soul Knife (Phys. Atk. +98, Elem. Atk. +188) and a big cut to her speed.

Axes:
Gargantuan Axe (Phys. Atk. +248, Accuracy +98, reduces target’s Phys. Def. proc) is clearly the best, and is storebought. Ogre Cleaver is a little better and also storebought, but it requires like a 9% scrutinize to open up in the shop, so yeah no.  Adamantine Hatchet (Phys. Atk. +112, Elem. Atk. +230) is the best mage axe and is storebought.

Bows:
Yeti’s Longbow (Phys. Atk. +229, Critical +95, blind procs) is the best pure damage bow.  Adamantine Bow (Phys. Atk. +178, Elem Atk. +209) is the best mage bow.  Brilliant Bow (Phys. Atk. +152, Elem Atk. +176, Accuracy +88) exists for the rare situations where more accuracy is required.  All three are storebought.

Hyperion Bow (Phys. Atk. +219, Elem. Atk. +261, Accuracy +115) is storebought but requires scrutinizing somebody hiding behind a Level 70 (!!) Olberic Challenge, so better hope your H'aanit is up to snuff.  Hahaha no.  Tressa would like it for more magic damage while keeping Seraphim Spear's speed, if allowed anyway.

Staves:
Similar to Daggers, we're heading to Tressa Purchases for the 2nd best here.  The best storebought is the Meteorite Rod (Phys. Atk. +98, Elem. Atk. +216, Evasion +77), which isn't really that great.  The best including Tressa Purchases is the Wizard’s Rod (Phys. Atk. +113, Elem. Atk. +300).  The second-best and assumed default is the Forbidden Staff (Phys. Atk. −100, Elem. Atk. +285, Critical −50); while I normally would ignore the Forbidden Weapons for having terrible downsides, the Staff's downsides are pretty irrelevant for Cyrus & Ophilia.  For the rare cases where staff beatdown is called for, the Morning Star (Phys. Atk. +196, Elem. Atk. +102, Critical +72) exists, but let's face it, Cyrus & Ophilia aren't winning if they resort to this.

Yggdrasil Staff is storebought but it's locked behind finishing Ophilia C4, so no dice.


Status effects and Status blocking

In general, bosses aren't immune to status, but PCs also can't possibly apply the nastiest statuses like Unconscious.  I'm not sure if anybody is immune to anything, really.  Certainly poison, the easiest-to-apply status for the cast, seems like it works on absolutely everything.

For the PC side, status-blocking accessories are not storebought, and are treasure only.  In general, probably not legal.  If you are willing to assume some post-C4 equips from emptying out the C4 dungeons and side dungeons with recommended level >45, then for some of the accessories, you'll get 4-5 of them, which is enough for a party if not the entire cast.  If you're assuming postgame accessory drops, though, they are probably replacing better equipment than the storebought accessories currently assumed (Speed +50 & HP +200).

Here are your options, if allowed:
Articulate Stone: Prevents silence
Bright Stone: Prevents blindness
Wakeful Stone: Prevents sleep
Conscious Stone: Prevents unconsciousness
Clarity Stone: Prevents confusion
Calming Stone: Prevents terror
Vivifying Stone: Prevents instant death

Less available: (3 exist, all very postgamey)
Antidote Stone: Prevents poison


Elemental weaknesses

None of the PCs have them, but all the enemies in-game have them.  8PT weaknesses are bad times; you take +30% damage from that weapon/element and wear down your shield value.  When you lose all your shields and are broken, you lose any remaining actions this turn as well as your entire next turn, and take double damage from everything.

This is mentioned here largely because "draining" abilities like Therion's HP Thief are a bit better in-game, since you can use them on broken enemies for double the healing, or on enemies with a dagger weakness for +30% healing.  It also makes characters who are able to convincingly hit a lot of weaknesses at once better in-game - yes, I mean Cyrus here, who hits 3 different elemental weaknesses, hard, and reduces 2x shield values with it, so you might nudge his damage up a tad out of respect for often being able to hit a weakness with it in-game.

[SnowFire]

DL thoughts

Originally I assumed the 3-turn "Natural" damage average for these rough rankings, but upon further reflection, going with the average of 1/2/3/4 rounds instead.

Ophilia is probably a Middle.  She spoils single-hit mages pretty hard with Reflective Veil, and her healing stops a lot of Lights in their tracks.  Uninspiring damage, though, and risks running out of SP (for all that this isn't really a concern in-game, what with giving her a Second Wind passive or just using Inspiriting Plums).  Oddly enough, she isn't really helped that much if you allow Guide; she runs out of SP less is the good news, but it doesn't really stop faster enemies from 2HKOing her physically.

Cyrus is a High Light, but a good one.  Slow, frail, but good damage of multiple elements.  Vim & Vigor makes him a little less frail than he looks, but not much.

Tressa is Kimahri version 2, and some sort of High Middle.  She has an infinite vs. single-acting, single-hit physical enemies with Sidestep, Sidestep, Boost x3 Sidestep for 4 shields, Rest, then damage, throwing in more Rests as need be to recover SP, so they can never hit her.  Vs. credible mages, she's in trouble.  She can outlast a few mages with limited resources by Resting a lot, but her poor damage means she can't really pressure them.  (OTOH, you can give her a 30K budget and watch as she OHKOs everybody on her first turn with boosted Veteran Merc for 9999 damage.)

Olberic is a Low Heavy?  Reasonably tanky and blows you the hell up on turn 3, and Spearhead means he'll be going first on turn 3, so you better 2HKO him or status him.

Primrose is Light, and that's with letting her have an off-weapon magic attack holder.  Frail and undamaging.  Gets mildly better if you allow Summon but doesn't really solve her problems.

Alfyn is the tanky healer archetype with extremely deep resources, and his damage isn't even bad.  Can even go fishing with Gusting Powder for Def-down debuff and follow it up with a max-boost'd Amputate vs. opposing healers.  He's a bit slow, though.  Low Heavy?  Despite his Resist Ailments passive, status is actually still not a bad way to take him out, especially turn 1 fatal status before he can set up immunity.

Therion is actually pretty good, a Middle / Heavy borderliner.  Fast, can survive turns 1 & 2 with some weak healing (improved after Armor Corrosive, even), then blows you up on turn 3 with extreme overkill damage.  Double hits on HP Thief means that the odds on Confuse taking effect aren't that bad.

H'aanit is another Middle, but not a very good one.  Very straight-forward, kills you on turn 3 but less crushingly than Olberic or Therion, and can potentially use Leghold Trap or Defend to compensate for her speed and go first on turn 3, although she might not actually KO if she gives up a turn's damage.  Allowing Summons helps her a bit, as she'll have a 2x chance of a Sleep proc on every hit of Soporific Claw, plus a pretty decent crit rate on it anyway to make her damage look better than it is in the chart and scrape some 2HKOs, but probably only enough to make her High Middle since the damage average goes up too.

[SnowFire]

Amputate testing, and some damage average updates!

* Amputate and True Strike do NOT guarantee criticals (which is what I thought before reading the mechanics guide).  They do, however, have some huge crit rate boost.  Amputate seemed to crit ~70% of the time or so, could be a fair amount of variation within this.  True Strike's rate is presumably better thanks to H'aanit's better crit rate (~90%?).  Since the crit boost to damage isn't that huge anyway (just 1.25x damage), this isn't too big of a deal.

* Accuracy testing on Amputate: Tested on Flame/Thunder/Shadow Revenants in the Shrine of the Warbringer near Riverford for an example of dodgy powerful enemies as well as a Gargantuan Boar in Rivira Woods (Alfyn C3 near Saintsbridge) as an example of a standard, somewhat outclassed enemy. 
** vs. the Revenant, H'aanit & Primrose physical attacks (170 acc, 210 acc) had a ~75% hit rate (37/50).  Alfyn's 274 accuracy Amputates had ~60% hit rate (15/25).  Cyrus 181 accuracy Amputates (equivalent to DL Alfyn equipping the mage axe option without an accuracy boost) had ~30% hit rate (7/25).
** vs. the Gargantuan Boar, H'aanit/Primrose regular attacks had a 100% hit rate (30/30).  Alfyn 274 Acc Ampuates had a ~75% hit rate (19/25).  Cyrus 181 Acc Amputates had a ~45% hit rate (9/20).
** Disclaimer: In practice, accuracy isn't too important since Alfyn usually only goes aggro on broken enemies who won't, in general dodge.  However, it does matter in that if you have a key enemy you want to break and every hit counts, you probably are stuck using a normal attack rather than Amputate, so maybe cause to antihype after all.  Your call.

* Dark Holy Elf had some comments here ( http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=7002.msg198511#msg198511 ) noting how the 3 turn average is harsh on the Octopath cast.  The cast's damage on turn 4 jumps off a cliff, as either the cast unloads on turn 3 and misses the BP-per-turn on turn 4, or they wait until turn 4 to go nuts and leave 1 BP in the tank, and the buffs/debuffs of Olberic, Primrose, and Therion fall off.

* Per the above, I've updated the damage averages slightly - prorating Alfyn's damage by -33% to reflect both that Amputate will sometimes miss and the crit will sometimes fail to go off.  (This still solidly outdamages the mage setup that spams Icicles.)  You could arguably scale it down even more.  Technically H'aanit's True Strike damage should also be slightly prorated, but eh, lazy and the effect would be tiny.

* I've also added a 4-turn damage average, as well as an average-of-averages that takes the 1/2/3/4 turn averages and averages them.  While a bit arbitrary, this may be better reflective of the general damage output of the cast.

* Probably not adding it to the stat topic unless this game becomes FF5-level popular, but FWIW, you could potentially figure out DL stats for the 4 postgame classes as well.  It's going to be a bit harder though because there's a lot more badass equipment in the postgame with bonuses like elemental damage boosts.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Boss time! This is an ongoing project as I play through the game.


Octopath bosses: a primer

Octopath Traveler has asymmetrical gameplay, i.e. the enemies play by slightly different rules than the PCs. An understanding of these is necessary for the boss stat topic.

Actions: Some Octopath bosses are capable of multiple actions per round. Such actions are always rolled separately for speed, which means that, due to Octopath's quite random turn order, that the actions often aren't consecutive. If an effect causes the boss to act first (recovering from Break) or last (Leghold Trap) in the round, then this applies to all their actions.

Shield: All Octopath enemies have a stat called Shield, which similar to HP comes in Current and Max varieties. Every time an enemy takes a successful hit from a damage type that corresponds to one of its weaknesses, its Current Shield is reduced by 1. If it falls to 0, the enemy is inflicted with Break status.

Break: An enemy who is broken loses its remaining actions for on the current round, if any, and all actions on the round after. In addition, broken enemies can not evade (although attacks with innate miss rates can still miss), counter, or generally do anything. They also take 2x damage from everything. At the start of the second round after Break is inflicted, the enemy will recover, with its Current Shield being set to equal its Max Shield. The enemy will also act at the very start of this round, outprioritising other initiative moves (Spearhead and Defend), so it's not possible to chain breaks such that an enemy can never act ever; they'll always act at least once every 3 rounds.

Weakness: In addition to its effect on Shield, an attack which hits a weakness does 1.3x damage. Note that this does NOT stack with the broken status; a broken enemy takes 2x damage regardless of whether the attack hits a weakness or not (though the game will add the attack's element to the interface which records the weaknesses you have discovered, at least).

Weakness guard: Some bosses can "guard" some or all of their weaknesses when certain conditions are met. If a weakness is guarded, it essentially no longer counts as a weakness: an attack which strikes it will not deal extra damage, nor will it reduce shield. The attack's element will still be added to the list of discovered weaknesses.

Boost: Bosses can boost, but it's not really similar to how it works for PCs. When certain conditions are met (usually an HP limit), bosses can boost as a free action following their final action of a round. On the first action of the NEXT round, they can use a powerful attack, which is specific to the boss and will be noted with "(Boost)" in the stat topic entry. Bosses do not boost every round even when the conditions are met (although they usually will boost on the first turn they are able), and in particular I've never seen them boost on consecutive turns, so I doubt they can.

Stat topic notes and assumptions

The order you fight bosses in is extremely arbitrary. I've chosen to fight them in the order of their recommended level by the game, tiebreaking for OCTOPATH (Ophilia, Cyrus, Tressa...) order if necessary.

I'm using all 8 PCs, with Primrose as main (who is therefore forced until her own Chapter 4 is completed). I'll list the levels as Primrose/(average of the others).

Since I'm rotating PCs constantly, averages are a bit wonky; I'm just noting what I have and not trying to adjust for which PCs I'm using at the time (though I'll try to use relatively balanced parties, e.g. you'll never see both Olberic and Alfyn).

The listed damage, similarly, shouldn't be taken as some sort of gospel or even used as a straight average; it's very dependent on which weapons are obtained and when. A player who gets weapons at different times will see different figures, and of course the "average" of the four PCs depends on who the four PCs are (using Cyrus almost invariably yields higher base damage).

All of the above adds up to me imploring the reader to please take all figures in the stat topic with a hefty serving of salt.

When scaling shield, I suggest dividing it by 4 and rounding up, though you're free to use your own scales. Thus many bosses (with less than 9 shield) will be broken in two hits. If their opponent is fast and hits their weakness, sucks to be them, they act once every 3 turns.

For each boss, I'll list the "base damage" of my PCs against the boss. Base damage is before any buffs, boost, break, or weakness-hits. Note that using BP alone means the actual damage average will be nearly double what you see here. In practice, with the ability to add buffs in there, it's more like 2-2.5x. With weakness and breaks, it goes even higher, and since literally every boss can be broken you might wish to factor this in a bit... but I'd suggest not going too far, because after all, bosses will be eating those weakness->breaks against some opponents anyway! I'm generally of the opinion that Octopath bosses are gonna be pretty darn durable if they can avoid their weaknesses, but suffer a lot when the weaknesses are in play. Note also that "base damage" does not include various character-specific ways to raise damage even higher, such as summons, beast lore, Hired Help, etc. Scale boss HP as you will, regardless.

I'm not testing bosses for speed. It's very random and would require more trials than I'm willing to go for. Remember that bosses always have initiative when they recover from break. I've also observed that bosses who open with "gain ability to doubleact" moves on turn 1 have initiative for doing so, so you can't break a boss to stop them from gaining multi-acting.

In addition to the fixed first turn above, often the move a boss uses immediately after recovering from break is fixed (often something to do with adjusting its Shield or weaknesses). These do take a turn and often a boss might rather do something else in the DL; up to you whether you let them (I probably don't).


On with the show!


Chapter 1

Skipping this! Chapter 1 bosses vary considerably with the order you fight them in. The same is not true thereafter.


Chapter 2

Rufus
The left wing of the crow

Party averages: Lv 23/17, ~1140 HP

Primrose's Fire Storm: 288
Tressa's HP Thief: 132
Ophilia's Holy Light: 128
H'aanit's True Strike: 127

30358 HP, 7 Shield
Weaknesses: Lance, Staff, Lightning, Holy
Accompanied by two minions with about 2/3 of his damage

Attack: ~310 physical
Roundhouse Kick: ~410 physical MT
Pummel: 2x210 = ~420 physical, ~67% chance of Stun for 2 turns
Can boost below half HP
Left-Hand Man (Boost): ~520 physical MT, ~50% chance of Stun for 3 turns.

Comments: He's all about stun pretty much. Fast opponents who hit his weakness will make pretty short work of him, but he can probably stun-lock most who are vulnerable to that. If stun is blocked he has decent durability and unimpressive evadable physical damage.

Omar
Bodyguard to wealth

Party averages: Lv 24/18, ~1330 HP

Cyrus's Blizzard: 335
Primrose's Blizzard: 305
Olberic's Cross Strike: 154
Tressa's HP Thief: 125

34519 HP, 5 Shield
Weaknesses: Lance, Knife, Staff, Ice, Holy
Accompanied by two footmen who can do 500 MT damage, this is the main danger of the fight!

Attack: ~430 physical
Sideswipe: ~600 physical MT
Tightens his defences: +2 to Current and Max Shield. 2PB, used after each recovery from break.
Supposedly he has a Boost attack but I never saw it...

Comments: The main danger is the amount of MT damage he and his support can put out. Bereft of that he's very boring. Better damage than Rufus, but it's not worth giving up Stun. Wasting a turn on raising shield is pretty meh.


Orlick
Crazed magical researcher

Party averages: Lv 25/18, ~1370 HP

Primrose's Fire Storm: 384
Alfyn's Amputation: 222 (low acc)
Therion's HP Thief: 194
Ophilia's True Strike: 150

30979 HP, 7 Shield
Weaknesses: Lance, Knife, Axe, Wind, Holy
Accompanied by two bodyguards. While at least one lives, Orlick's weaknesses are guarded. They do some modest damage and have 7966 HP.

Attack: ~360 physical
Rage: ~500 physical MT
Magic Missile: ~610 magic
Augmentation: P Atk Up and E Atk Up, MT, 3 turns
Activate Construct: Summons a golem. OPB, below half HP only. I'll list its stats below since you can argue this is a legal summon. Does NOT guard Orlick's weaknesses.
Can boost below half HP
Magic Grenade (Boost): ~800 magic MT

Golem's stats: 12746 HP, 8 Shield, Wk: Knife, Bow, Fire, Wind
Overhead Bash: ~400 physical
Lightning Bolt: ~360 lightning magic MT

Comments: Less durable than the previous bosses, but can hit both defences and has higher base damage (high 3HKO!), which he can spike a bit with Augmentation and/or his summon if that's allowed. Note that Augmentation only yields 2 turns of 1.5x offence for him, so it doesn't do more damage over time, but it's still useful.


Hrodvitnir
Brooch-thieving dog

Party averages: Lv 27/21, ~1610 HP

Primrose's Blizzard: 458
Alfyn's Amputation: 248
Therion's HP Thief: 214
Ophilia's Holy Light: 170

34959 HP, 5 Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Lance, Ice, Lightning, Holy

Fur Stands on End: Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB.
Howls with Rage: Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB, below half HP only.
Eyes you Warily: +2 to Current and Max Shield. 3PB, used after each recovery from break.
Attack: ~270 physical
Bestial Claw: ~350 physical MT
Bestial Fang: ~470 physical, inflicts P Atk Down 3 turns.
Sharpen Claws: P Atk Up for 4 turns
Night Howl: P Def Down for 3 turns, MT. Below half HP only.

Comments: The base damage isn't too special but man can he snowball. Sharpen Claws and Night Howl stack for 2.25x damage dealt, and he eventually tripleacts. Ouch! Bestial Fang can buy him some time against fighters too, though if they're fast and hit one of his (common) physical weaknesses, it might not be enough. Interesting anyway!


Gideon
Wannabe necromancer

Party averages: Lv 28/20, ~1640 HP

Primrose's Fire Storm: 387
Olberic's Cross Strike: 250
Cyrus's Fire Storm: 246
H'aanit's True Strike: 235

26591 HP, 7 Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Knife, Axe, Holy

Animate Bones: Summon 2x Dancing Bones. While either lives, his weaknesses are guarded. Probably 2PB.
Attack: ~390 physical
Executioner: ~980 physical
Hand of Darkness: ~580 dark magic MT, ~37.5% chance of Blind 2 for turns
Creepy Laugh: P Def Down and E Def Down, 3 turns, MT

Dancing Bones' stats: 7515 HP, 4 Shield, Wk: Axe, Staff, Fire, Holy
(Supposedly, the second time they are summoned, they come in at 50% HP and -1 Shield.)
Bone Toss: 3 hits of ~180 physical

Comments: Yeah I dunno why the spindly mage boss has the best physical so far, our first boss who 2HKOs naturally. He's frailer than the average Octopath boss to make up for this, though the summon is a helpful trick against ST opponents who hit his weakness. Creepy Laugh is mostly good for fishing for a OHKO against below-average durability healers.


Vanessa
Genderbent Martin Shkreli

Party averages: Lv 29/22, ~1720 HP

Primrose's Fire Storm: 376
Alfyn's Amputation: 236
Therion's HP Thief: 224
Tressa's HP Thief: 204

27459 HP, 5 Shield
Weaknesses: Lance, Axe, Fire, Wind, Dark
Accompanied by two Sellswords. They have 9538 HP, and have several attacks including MT 400 and 3-5 hits of 240 to random targets, all physical.

Vanessa's weaknesses are guarded while she has any allies.

Attack: ~250 physical
Huff and Puff: ~480 physical
Concoct Stimulant: P Atk Up for 4 turns, MT
Concoct Explosive: ~450 fire magic MT
Concoct Poison: Poison for 3-5 turns. (It seemed random?) Poison tears off 1/6 MHP after the afflicted character's action.
Concoct Sedative: Sleep for 3 turns. Sleeping characters can't act, though are woken by a hit.
Concoct Restorative: Full revival, MT. OPB, below half HP only.

Comments: In-game most of her worth comes from her attack buff allowing her + her allies to dish out some solid damage. In a duel, well, sleep + poison is death to those vulnerable to both. Not too impressive past that, since she needs 4 turns to win against average if sleep is immuned.


Gustav
The Black Knight

Party averages: Lv 30/24, ~1670 HP

Primrose's Fire Storm: 377
Olberic's Cross Strike: 318
Ophilia's True Strike: 192
Tressa's HP Thief: 129 *this probably means Gustav's def is pretty good, but Thief is the only physical class significantly affected by it so whatever.

39549, 8 shield
Weaknesses: Lance, Axe, Bow, Fire, Dark
Accompanied by two shield-wielders with 7910 HP, who guard his weaknesses and have some single-target damage.

Takes Measure of Battlefield: Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB.
"My blade sunders all": Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB, below half HP only.
Attack: ~440 physical
Level Slash: ~500 physical MT
Cross Strike: ~670 physical
Triple Strike: 3 hits of ~220 physical against one target
Black Blade: ~710 physical, inflicts Terror (can't boost) for 4 turns

Comments: Like Hrodvitnir above with the extra actions he needs to sacrifice immediate turns for, with fewer tricks but better durability. All he can really do is physical damage, but he's not bad at it; doubleacting alone gets him close to ORKO damage.


Lord of the Forest
Hayao Miyazaki gonna sue your ass

Party averages: Lv 31/25, ~1780 HP

Primrose's Fire Storm: 466
Cyrus's Fire Storm: 327
H'aanit's True Strike: 298
Alfyn's Amputation: 235

43504 HP, 7 shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Axe, Fire, Holy
Alternative weakness set #1: Lance, Knife, Axe, Fire, Dark
Alternative weakness set #2: Bow, Staff, Fire, Wind

Life Returns to the Forest: Summon 2 minions. There are three different types. Questionable legality and I sure as heck ain't pulling stats for all of them. They tend to die/get broken way too fast anyway.
Attack: ~390 physical
Quagmire: ~370 physical, inflicts Silence for 2 turns
Compost: ~560 physical, ~50% chance of stun for 3 turns
Can boost when alone
Forest Ire (boost): ~620 lightning magic MT
Consume Life: Deals damage equal to target's current HP - 1, draining. +1 to Current and Max Shield. Shifts to one of his alternative weakness sets (see above). Below half HP only.

Comments: HP-1's kinda something he wishes he had above half HP, but at least it lets him evade his weaknesses when he gets it... except fire. Fire burn tree. Otherwise, stun and silence are nice, offence is pretty bad though.


Chapter 3

You'll probably pick up your main character's divine skill around the start of the chapter, which pushes up damage some.

Erhardt
Kingslayer

He fights Olberic solo. Scale as you will.

Party averages: Lv 34/28, ~1910 HP
Olberic: Level 28, ~2130 HP

Olberic's Cross Strike: 338

14819 HP, 6 Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Axe, Ice, Dark

Attack: ~460 physical
Cross Strike: ~690 physical
Blazing Stance, Improved: Unlocks the use of Blazing Sword. Below half HP.
Blazing Sword: ~690 physical, inflicts Terror for 1-3 turns
*his damage is ~10 points higher against average defence, presumably

Comments: Blazing Stance isn't really worth the turn in a DL setting, for all that it clearly is in-game. His shield might deserve more respect due to being a solo, which would help him a bit. That said he's very boring, sadly, considering that he's easily the most plot-important boss in the stat topic so far.


Miguel
A life not worth saving

Party averages: Lv 35/28, ~1970 HP

Primrose's Fire Storm: 440
Cyrus's Fire Storm: 420
Alfyn's Amputation: 373
Tressa's True Strike: 232

56808 HP, 7 Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Bow, Wind, Holy
Alternative weakness set #1: Lance, Knife, Fire, Holy
Alternative weakness set #2: Axe, Staff, Ice, Lightning
Alternative weakness set #3: Sword, Axe, Fire, Lightning

"'Fraid you picked a fight with the wrong man": Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB.
Shifts his defences: Shifts to one of his alternative weakness sets (see above). Used after each recovery from break.
Attack: ~900 physical
Twin Spear: ~1180 + ~790 = ~1970 physical to one, ~67% chance of inflicting P Atk Down and P Def Down for 6 turns
Cross Spear: 2 hits of ~660 = ~1320 physical, MT
Hurl Spear: No immediate effect. At the end of the round, deals 5 hits of ~730 physical to random targets, focuses = ~3650 to one. Breaking Miguel before the attack resolves will cancel it.

Can boost below half HP. Instead of unlocking a new attack, boosting causes him to get five turns instead of the usual two the following round.

Storm of Spears: No immediate effect. At the end of the round, deals 8 hits of ~730 physical to random targets, focuses = ~5840 to one. Breaking Miguel before the attack resolves will cancel it. Below 25% HP only.
Drink Medicine: 10% healing, self. OPB?

Note: I'm pretty sure he can only use Cross Spear once per round, and can only use a delayed-damage attack once per round.

Comments: Miguel is a badass, putting every other boss so far to shame, with excellent damage output whether we're talking MT or ST. Twin Spear + Hurl Spears is nearly 4PCHP if the debuff kicks in (nearly 3PCHP if it doesn't). And he can shift his defences so you'd better have a good coverage of attack types to slow him down (lightning+holy or axe+holy is the easiest way). Loses a bit if he has to unfocus and hates the highly evasive but still obviously very good, the first unambiguous Godlike boss of the game.


Venomtooth Tiger
Poison kitty

Party averages: Lv 37/29, ~1940 HP

Primrose's Fire Storm: 458
H'aanit's Cross Strike: 354
Tressa's HP Thief: 353
Ophilia's Holy Light: 266

53661 HP, 6 Shield
Weaknesses: Lance, Bow, Fire, Holy

Jumps and eyes warily: Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB.
Steels its defences: +2 to Current and Max Shield. 2PB, used after each recovery from break.
Attack: ~980 physical
Sweep: ~1290 physical, 50% chance of poison for 1-3 turns
Tail Sweep: 2 hits of ~540 = ~1080 physical MT
Venom Fang: ~1710 physical, inflicts poison for 3-4 turns
Peerless Poison: For the rest of the battle, poison on the Tiger's foes tears off 1/3 MHP, 10% MSP and 1 BP instead of the usual 1/6 MHP. Below half HP only.

Comments: Poison! Though y'know its damage is so high (1.5PCHP per turn with Venom Fang + Sweep excluding turn 1) that it's probably not relevant too often. Peerless Poison is a neat trick in-game though. Obviously very good, not too much to say.


Gareth
Replacement Therion

Party averages: Lv 38/31, ~2030 HP

Primrose's Blizzard: 435
Cyrus's Blizzard: 407
Olberic's Cross Strike: 358
Therion's HP Thief: 300

38962 HP, 5 shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Axe, Staff, Ice, Wind
Accompanied by two master thieves with the usual bad durability who can do 800 ST damage or heal him of break

"You can't keep up with me"": Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB.
"Can't find good help these days"": Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB, used when alone.
Evasive Breath: Evade Up, self, 4 turns. He evades anything physical around 50-60% of the time while this is active.
Attack: ~800 physical
Steal Magic: ~1300 physical, drains ~60 SP (party avg is 177)
Steal Life: ~1050 physical MT, heals self for half damage dealt
Will'o'Wisp: ~950 fire magic MT
Defensive Posture: Guards 2-3 of his weaknesses... combos I saw were sword/axe/ice, axe/staff, and sword/staff/ice (so he never guards wind, notably). Used after each recovery from break. Lasts until Gareth is broken.

Can boost below half HP
Steal All (boost): Opponents can not use any items (or skills which use them i.e. Concoct). Lasts until Gareth is broken.

Comments: His HP and shield are both on the unimpressive side, but he makes up for in other ways. Both his evade and weakness guarding can make it difficult to keep him under control, and his offence is, as usual for a Chapter 3 Octopath boss, very good once it gets rolling: ORKO once he double-acts, even more if he goes for triples, and unlike most he can hit both defences. Oh yeah, and he CAN pair up his MT moves in-game, so watch out for that.


Shady Figure & Mystery Man
Too mysterious for names

Party averages: Lv 41/33, ~2340 HP

Primrose's Fire Storm: 503
Alfyn's Amputation: 395
H'aanit's Cross Strike: 371
Ophilia's Holy Light: 246
*both bosses seem to have nearly identical defences

Shady Figure

32197 HP, 4 shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Knife, Fire, Ice, Lightning

"I'll see to your wounds": Starting next round, Shady Figure acts an extra time. This extra action ALWAYS goes last in the order (even after recovering from break), and is always used for Heal Wounds.
Luminescence: ~600 light magic MT
Arcane Enhancement: E Atk Up for 3 turns, MT
Heal Wounds: Heals 800 HP, MT

Mysterious Man

28172 HP, 5 Shield
Weaknesses: Lance, Axe, Holy, Dark

Protects with Unseen Force: Guards all "magical" weaknesses, MT. Doesn't wear off naturally.
Fireball: ~850 fire magic MT
Icewind: ~850 ice magic MT
Lightning Bolt: ~850 lightning magic MT
Arcane Blade: ~1520 magic

Seethes with Rage: Gains TWO extra actions for the rest of the fight, but the first action each round must be used on Channel Energy (which does nothing). +3 to current and max shield. Ends the weakness guard effect. Used when alone. Supposedly, Shady Figure has this move as well, with the same condition.

Comments: There's two of them but honestly their offence combined is still notably lower than that of most other Chapter 3 bosses. In a duel, Mysterious Man 2HKOs with Arcane Blade and has a relatively rare weakness set, which he can partially guard to boot, so he's okay. Shady Figure has way worse offence and a ridiculously common weakness set (and only 4 shield...), so is almost certainly the worst Octopath boss in the DL.


Dragon
Dungeon not included

Party averages: Lv 42/34, ~2430 HP

Primrose's Blizzard: 434
Alfyn's Amputation: 336
H'aanit's Cross Strike: 326
Tressa's Tradewinds: 252

63522 HP, 4 Shield
Weaknesses: Axe, Holy
Dragon is also flagged as weak to Sword/Bow/Ice, but these weaknesses start off guarded.

Stands menacingly: Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB.
Grows wary: +3 to Current and Max Shield. 2PB, used after each recovery from break. The first use of this unlocks Dragon's weakness to Sword; the second use unlocks its weakness to Bow and Ice.
Attack: ~1000 physical
Dragonfire: ~1450 fire magic MT
Swept Away: Removes target from the battle, 3 turns. The target can not act, be targeted, gain BP, etc. Allegedly this isn't used against a solo target.
Rending Claw: ~1750 physical. Below half HP only.

Apparently the Dragon can boost and use a two-target version of Swept Away but I never saw it. Below 1/4 HP maybe, I didn't test that range.

Comments: Nice durability, especially since it effectively only has two weaknesses, neither of which are super-common. That gives it plenty of time to use its borderline ORKO damage split between both defences (goes well past borderline below half HP). Spoilable but one hell of a bruiser if you don't.


Yvon
Headmaster

Party averages: Lv 44/35, ~2150 HP
*I'm using a low-HP party here, I recommend adjusting this figure up by around ~200 to be in line with my figures for other bosses

Primrose's Fire Storm: 441
Cyrus's Fire Storm: 431
Olberic's Cross Strike: 315
Therion's HP Thief: 215
*These figures imply above average physical defence

63522 HP, 3 Shield
Weaknesses: Knife, Staff, Holy
Accompanied by 2 Research Fellows, who have 12704 HP, can physical for 550, or cast Tornado for 750 MT.

Attack: ~1000 physical
Intimidate: ~1350 physical, inflicts silence for 4 turns
Thrash ~1150 physical MT
Physical Augmentation: P Atk Up and P Def Up self, 4 turns

"Physical strength augmented": raises Current and Max Shield. 3PB, used after each recovery from break. The first use raises shield by +2 and permanently adds a fire weakness to Yvon. The second use raises shield by +3 and permanently adds an ice weakness. The third use raises shield by +4.

"Losing control of his body": Yvon will "use" this on his first turn below half HP. Permanently grants the Critical Hit Up buff, self. I never saw him fail to crit after this; crits deal +25% damage.
Pulverize: ~1500 (~1875 on a crit) physical, reduces target's BP by 1. Below half HP only.

Comments: Not someone I would have pegged to be pure physical. Anyway, only acting once really limits his damage potential, and the turns lost to "physical strength augmented" and "losing control", if you force him into those, hurt extra bad on a single-acting boss. That said he's still durable and 2HKOs while inflicting silence, so he's hardly bad!


Albus
The right wing of the crow

Party averages: Lv 45/35, ~2340 HP

Primrose's Fire Storm: 559
H'aanit's Cross Strike: 371
Ophilia's Holy Light: 357
Tressa's HP Thief: 312

52599 HP, 8 Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Knife, Bow, Wind, Holy

Attack: ~880 physical
Shoulder Smash: ~1250 physical, inflicts P Atk Down for 2 turns
Eye Gouge: ~1280 physical, inflicts Blind for 3-4 turns

"Settle down, you whelps!": Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB, used below 75% HP only.
Flay Skin: 5-6 hits of ~600 to random targets = ~3000-3600 physical. Below 75% HP only.

Human Shield: Summon two Obsidian Officers who have 10732 HP and some ST damage, which notably includes blind infliction. While either live, his weaknesses are guarded. OPB, below half HP only.
Death to the Unseeing: Instant death to all blinded opponents.

Can boost below half HP
Eye Slash (boost): ~1120 physical MT, inflicts blind for 2-4 turns.

Comments: He's unimpressive at full HP, although he does have two ways of making physical attackers unhappy. Once beaten up he gains access to ORKO damage in Flay Skin as well as the option to open up double-acting that so many other bosses get. The fatal damage against blind opponents is a nice way to overcome high defence, mostly. In-game, his minions mostly serve to give him time to use Eye Slash -> Death to the Unseeing, by far his most dangerous trick.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Chapter 4

At this point you can probably assume that every PC has a divine skill, as per the PC stat topic. These include some 3-BP damage moves which exceed the normal option (by how much varies), and buffs which double damage.

All Chapter 4 tales have the same recommended level, so the HP average I use will be the same for all of 'em. I'll show you my damage figures for reference. I start with Primrose's final boss because doing so lets me remove her from the party, and after that I'll go in OCTOPATH order.

Party averages: Level ~45, HP ~2740

Simeon
The puppetmaster

There's a first form right before the one I'll list here. Totally separate fight, and is mostly about some marionettes he fights with which are of questionable legality, so I'm skipping it.

Damage to him:
Primrose's Fire Storm: 578
Therion's True Strike: 531
Olberic's Cross Strike: 414
Ophilia's Holy Light: 348

96450 HP, 6 Shield
He always has five weaknesses, but some of them are guarded (four at first, decreases by one every time Cracked defences occurs). To simplify things, here are his unguarded weaknesses.
Weaknesses: Knife
Alternative weakness set #1: Sword, Fire
Alternative weakness set #2: Axe, Bow, Ice
Alternative weakness set #3: Lance, Knife, Staff, Wind
Alternative weakness set #4: Sword, Axe, Fire, Lightning, Dark
Alternative weakness set #5: Knife, Axe, Bow, Ice, Dark
Alternative weakness set #6: Lance, Knife, Staff, Wind, Dark

Always acts (at least) twice

Attack: ~1050 physical
Silence Comes: ~1500 dark magic, inflicts silence for 4 turns
Hushed Melody: ~1200 dark magic MT
Boiling Blood: P Atk Up and E Atk Up self, 4 turns

Cracked defences: Always used after recovering from break. Swaps to the next weakness set (as listed above). After #6, cycle back to #4. The first two uses of this also raise his current and max shield by +2.
Master of Silence: Always used as the second action (same round) after recovering from break. Inflicts silence for 4-5 turns, MT, 100%. Supposedly he can also enter Boost Mode to use this but I never saw it.

"Give yourself to darkness": Simeon can act a third time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB, below half HP only.
Act of Impulse: ~1400 physical. Below half HP only.

Comments: Having the ability to doubleact initially is good, and he can set up with a buff to do some really killer damage on turns 2 through 4, and also has accurate silence while he's at it. Only being weak to knife is also a huge DL boon. Having no damage on the turn he recovers from break allows you to really limit his offence in-game, though you'd better have either lots of silence-curing/preventing options on hand.


Mattias
The Savior

Damage to him:
H'aanit's True Strike: 718
Ophilia's Blizzard: 666
Alfyn's Amputation: 431
Tressa's Tradewinds: 396

97686 HP, 4 Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Axe, Ice, Holy

Always acts twice

Attack: ~950 physical
Consuming Darkness: ~1250 dark magic
Black Gale: ~1180 dark magic MT
Assume Different Stance: +2 to Current and Max Shield. 2PB, used after each recovery from break.

Summon Cultists: summons 2 cultists. While either live, Mattias's weaaknesses are guarded. They've got 9892 HP and aren't very notable. OPB, below 75% HP only.
Infernal Flame: Seals use of multitarget magic (no effect on MT physicals or ST magic). Lasts until Mattias is broken. OPB, below 75% HP only.

Infernal Prayer: P Atk Up, E Atk Up, P Def Up, and Speed Up for 4 turns, self. Spd Up accelerates his turns by 1 place in the turn order (doesn't affect current round). Note that this list is "missing" E Def Up. Below 50% HP only.

Summon Black Matter: Summons two Black Matters. While either live, Mattias's weaknesses are guarded. They're a bit better than the cultists, as they have ~12365 HP and can do 750 ST or 600 MT magic, before being buffed (read on). OPB, below 25% HP only.
Dark Blessing: E Atk Up and Speed Up for 3 turns, MT. Below 25% HP only.
Can boost below 25% HP
Black Thunder (Boost): ~1050 dark magic MT, 100% chance of stun for 1-3 turns.

Comments: His damage is a bit on the weak side and he's surprisingly easy to break. Infernal Flame is a neat trick but only getting MT moves is a bit of a downer for duelling. Infernal Prayer is a ridiculously good buff against physical opponents, though. His boost attack is horrifying in-game but he may have some trouble getting it off.


Lucia
From the far reaches of hell

Damage to her:
H'aanit's True Strike: 710
Cyrus's Fire Storm: 664
Therion's Fire Storm: 558
Olberic's Cross Strike: 471

84084 HP, see below for Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Lance, Knife, Axe, Bow
Alternate weakness set #1: Fire, Ice, Lightning, Wind, Holy
Alternate weakness set #3: Sword, Axe, Lightning, Holy

*Technical note: briefly at the battle's start, Lucia is listed as having only 1 Shield, but she also has no weaknesses at this time. She'll always overwrite this before you can act in-game, but this could be relevant against other initiatives in the DL.

Always acts (at least) twice

Physical Perfection: Used with initiative, OPB. Sets current and max Shield to 30(!). Increases defences greatly; compared to the listed figures, she takes 40% less from high-multiplier physicals, 60% less from magic, and 90% less from low-multiplier physicals like HP Thief. This move is kinda OP. Lasts until Lucia is broken.

Attack: ~1330 physical
Sweep: ~1730 physical MT
Wallop: ~1850 physical, inflicts Stun for 3 turns
Pulverize: ~2120 physical, reduces target's BP to 0.

Metamorphosis: Sets current and max Shield to 15, shifts to alternate weakness set #1. OPB, used after her first recovery from break. Also completely replaces her tech list with the following:
Hellfire: ~1350 dark magic MT
Shadow Slash: ~1850 dark magic, inflicts Silence for 4 turns
Shatter Soul: ~2080 physical, also does 999 SP damage (over 4x average PC SP)

Losing Control: Sets current and max Shield to 8, shifts to alternate weakness set #2. OPB, used after her second recovery from break. Starting next round, Lucia acts an extra time. This extra action ALWAYS goes last in the order (even after recovering from break), and is always used for Regeneration. Also completely replaces her tech list with the following:
Sweep, Pulverize, Shatter Soul: see above
Berserk Rage: 5 hits of ~1040 to random targets = ~5200 physical
Regeneration: Heals 1681 HP (2% max)
Can boost below 25% HP
Almighty Curse (Boost): Sets HP to 1, MT.

Comments: Lucia's an Octopath oddity; she's arguably scariest at full HP. 30 shield, solidly ORKO damage, and stun is a nasty package. Those who never break her will have to deal with her impressive defences and are in a world of trouble. Those with non-blunt physicals will break her eventually and can get rid of that. Breaking her a second time (which requires a different type of damage anyway) may be ill-advised since she gets scarier again (aside from losing her only magic damage) with the brutal Berserk Rage.


Esmeralda
Diary thief

Damage to her:
Cyrus's Fire Storm: 755
Therion's Fire Storm: 682
Tressa's Tradewinds: 554
Alfyn's Amputation: 456

96450 HP, 4 Shield
Weaknesses: Lance, Axe, Staff, Wind, Holy
Alternate weakness set #1: Sword, Bow, Fire, Lightning, Wind
Alternate weakness set #2: Lance, Knife, Ice, Wind, Dark

Always acts twice

Attack: ~1240 physical
Hack and Slash: 3 hits of ~1240 to one target = ~3720 physical
Raven's Flight: Inflicts P Def Down for 3 turns, MT
Red Blade: ~2050 fire magic, disables target's attack command. Lasts until Esmeralda is broken.
Violet Blade: ~2050 dark magic, disables target's use of offensive magic. Lasts until Esmeralda is broken.
Blue Blade: ~2050 ice magic, disables target's use of physical skills. Lasts until Esmeralda is broken.
Black Blade: Inflicts death sentence, duration 4 turns. Target dies when the status counter reaches zero (i.e. start of the round 4 rounds from now). Effect is dispelled if Esmeralda is broken.

Shifts her weight: Shifts to her next weakness set. The first two times this is used, +2 to Current and Max Shield. Used after each recovery from break.

Five Strikes: 5 hits of ~1450 to random targets = ~7250 physical. Used below 75% HP only.
Black Blade Rush: Inflicts death sentence MT, duration is either 1, 3, 5, or 7 turns. Effect is dispelled if Esmeralda is broken.

Comments: Uh that's a lot of damage. Around 2PCHP on turn 1, and rises to absolutely ridiculous once Five Strikes unlocks and/or she sets up Raven's Flight. Oh yeah and she can seal off any offensive parts of her opponent's skillset. Very, very scary in a duel; gonna guess she's the best boss in the maingame.


Werner
Hornburg's bane

Damage to him:
Ophilia's Lightning Blast: 900
H'aanit's True Strike: 729
Tressa's Tradewinds: 595
Olberic's Cross Strike: 496

101396 HP, 5 Shield
Weaknesses: Knife, Axe, Lightning, Wind, Holy

Always acts twice

All physical attacks have a ~30% chance of inflicting Terror for 2-3 turns per hit

Attack: ~1300 physical
Double Strike: 2 hits of ~1300 to one target = ~2600 physical
Sweep: ~1730 physical MT
Oppression: Inflicts P Atk Down and P Def Down for 3 turns, MT

Shifts his weight: +2 to Current and Max Shield (max of +4). The first time this is used, guards his weaknesses to knife/lightning; the second time, axe/wind; the third time, lightning/wind/holy (repeats from there). Used after each recovery from break, and can also be used at-will once his shield is maxed.

The FAQ indicates that below half HP he gains access to a ST attack which can stun but I never saw it, so no idea on rate!

Comments: Pretty vanilla for a chapter 4 boss, which is to say he ORKOs solidly over a double and has a debuff to push his damage further. Terror's of fairly niche use in the DL. Being 100% evadable physical is of course not optimum.


Ogre Eagle
Big Bird

Damage to it:
Therion's Blizzard: 872
Cyrus's Blizzard: 774
H'aanit's True Strike: 720
Alfyn's Amputation: 404

Note: The relative damage of Therion and Cyrus with magic illustrates how equipment matters more than base stats in this game. Speaking of which, I was really in a bad place for axes at this point...

110175 HP, 4 Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Bow, Ice, Lightning, Dark

Always acts twice

All physical attacks have a 100% chance of inflicting one random status effect for 3 turns per hit
The status effect can be Poison, Blind, Sleep, Confuse, P Atk Down, P Def Down, or E Def Down. P Def Down seems significantly more common than the rest; no formal tests, but I'd guess it's 40% and the rest are 10%. Remember that if a status is inflicted twice (e.g. by Double Talon), the duration increases by 3 turns each time. If the first hit of a multihit attack inflicts P Def Down, this affects the second hit.

Reminder that sleep/confuse are ended by taking any subsequent hits (including within a multi-hit attack). Poison is 1/6 MHP after each action, confuse causes the target to use its attack command against random targets (dunno if self is included).

Attack: ~1150 physical
Double Talon: 2 hits of ~600 = ~1200 physical MT
Double Rend: 2 hits of ~700 to one = ~1400 physical
Wind Slash: 3 hits of ~500 to one = ~1500 wind magic
Swept Away: Removes target from the battle, 3 turns. The target can not act, be targeted, gain BP, etc. Allegedly this isn't used against a solo target.

Toxic Rainbow: Creates a field effect which lowers all opponents' max HP by 8% of their current max HP at the end of every round. Lasts for the rest of the battle. If this lowers max HP below current HP, current HP is dropped to that value (overwrites Saving Grace).
Storm Slash: 5 hits of ~500 to random targets = ~2500 wind magic. Below half HP only.

Great Wings: Guards all weaknesses except ice. Lasts until broken, and usable only on turn 1. Not initiative, so it's quite possible to break Ogre Eagle and never see this.
Grows Wary: +2 to Current and Max Shield. The first time this is used, guards Ogre Eagle's weaknesses to bow/dark until broken. Used after each recovery from break, 2PB.

Comments: The highest HP of the maingame bosses and plotwise you barely put a dent in it, what a badass. Anyway that's a lot of status (Double Rend + Double Talon gives it four tries per turn), and the debuffs work on everyone. It lacks any overwhelming damage options (it needs to land P Def Down or drop to half HP before it can start ORKOing) but as usual it's hardly bad on offence, and Rainbow Poison is a nasty trick against stallers.


Darius
Lord of tea leaves

Damage to him:
Therion's Blizzard: 963
Tressa's Amputation: 675
Ophilia's True Strike: 623
Olberic's Cross Strike: 573

98973 HP, 4 Shield
Weaknesses: Lance, Knife, Axe, Ice, Wind

Always acts (at least) twice

Steal Item: ~1300 physical MT. Opponents can not use any items (or skills which use them i.e. Concoct). Lasts until Darius is broken. OPB?
Sweep: ~1500 physical MT
Steal SP: ~1550 physical, drains 75% of target's max SP
Steal HP: ~1850 physical, heals self for damage dealt
Nighthawk: Inflicts P Atk Down and P Def Down for 3 turns, MT
Will'o'Wisp: ~2000 fire magic

Strengthens Posture: +2 to Current and Max Shield (max of +4). The first time this is used, guards his weaknesses to lance/axe/ice; the second time, axe/ice/wind; the third time, lance/ice/wind (repeats from there). Note that he never guards knife. Used after each recovery from break.

Battle Cry: Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB, used below 25% HP.

Comments: Nothing new here compared to other chapter 4 bosses, but certainly good. ORKO damage, some magic but mostly evadable physical, a debuff to push his offence further. The ability to steal items and damage SP are his nice extra tricks.


Redeye
Graham Crossford

Damage to him:
Cyrus's Fire Storm: 1062
H'aanit's True Strike: 741
Ophilia's Fire Storm: 622
Olberic's Cross Strike: 545

108815 HP, 5 Shield
Weaknesses: Knife, Bow, Staff, Fire, Holy
Alternate weakness set #1: Lance, Axe, Lightning, Wind, Holy
Alternate weakness set #2: Sword, Bow, Fire, Lightning, Holy

Always acts (at least) twice

All physical attacks have a ~50% chance of inflicting Blind for 1-4 turns per hit, unless they can inflict another status

Writhes Ominously: Free action, used between rounds, even if broken. Replaces his current weakness set with the next one.
Attack: ~1220 physical
Rend: ~1860 physical
Sweep: ~1540 physical MT
Bestial Roar: ~1000 physical MT, ~40% chance of Stun for 2-3 turns

(increase shield): +2 to Current and Max Shield. 2PB, used after each recovery from break.

Beast's Anger: Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB, used below half HP.
Unearthly Roar: ~1200 physical MT, 100% chance of Stun for 2-4 turns. Used below half HP. (wtf)
Rampage: ~1800 physical MT. Used below half HP.
Unholy Elixir: Heals one opponent for 100 HP! Used below half HP.
Evil Eye: Inflicts Petrify, 100%. Used below half HP.

Comments: Redeye is the most hyped of the Chapter 4 bosses, and probably the best in-game. Below half HP he can use Unearthly Roar + Rampage + something else on a single turn and that's just as unfair as it looks. Evasion is a good way to deal with that both in-game and in the DL, but he does have petrify to get around that (no actual magic damage though). Above half HP he's not too special, but he still has blind and lower-percent stun for PCs to contend with, and the usual good offence of C4 bosses.


Advanced job guardians

While they're not involved in the plot, these are notable opponents because the prizes they guard are very powerful. You can fight them in any order (or even before the Chapter 4 bosses) so they're a bit difficult to scale, because each one you acquire has a notable effect on the party's offence, granting powerful new attacks and passive abilities (each job has a passive which raises damage by 50% in some way, these are not included in the figures below). Offhand it doesn't seem crazy to say they have similar durability to Chapter 4 bosses after scaling (despite having around 75-100% more HP unscaled), but YMMV.

My average Level was ~50 and my average HP was ~3000. By this point you'll probably be using some sort of major damage mitigation, such as Saving Grace (which allows you to heal past your max) or reflect/evade strategies to stay on top of things.

Steorra
Starseer

Damage to her:
Cyrus's Blizzard: 1020
Ophilia's Blizzard: 572
Alfyn's Amputation: 486
Tressa's True Strike: 426

178064 HP, 7 Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Knife, Fire, Ice, Lightning
Alternate weakness set #1: (12 Shield) Lance, Bow, Fire, Ice
Alternate weakness set #2: (8 Shield) Sword, Knife, Lightning, Wind
Alternate weakness set #3: (4 Shield) Dark

Always acts (at least) twice

Attack: ~1000 physical
Wandering Star: ~1600 light magic, inflicts Confuse for 4-5 turns
Baleful Star: ~2000 dark magic
Shooting Star: 3 hits of ~700 = ~2100 magic, MT. The first hit is wind, the second light, the third dark.
Physical Reflection: Counters physical attacks/skills for ~6500 damage (physical?). Lasts until used 3 times, or until Steorra is broken.
Restore Balance: Inflicts immunity to buffs for 5 turns
Song of the Starseer: P Def Up, Speed Up, and Evade Up for 4 turns, self. Spd Up accelerates her turns by 1 place in the turn order (doesn't affect current round).

Stands Imposingly: Shifts to the next weakness set in order (never goes back to her initial one). Note that unlike most such shifts, this one also rewrites her current/max Shield to a number associated with that set (see the list above). Used after each recovery from break.

Grows light as air: Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB, used below half HP.
Heavenly Protection: Steorra has a ~25% chance to null damage, checked for each hit. Also nulls the shield loss associated with the hit, if any. Lasts for the rest of the battle. Used below half HP.
Supernova: ~1800 light magic MT. Lowers targets' BP by 1.
Can boost below half HP
Omniscience (Boost): ~3700 non-elemental magic MT.

Ethereal Healing: Allegedly heals her for 10% max HP and grants 2% regen for the rest of the battle. I didn't see this. Maybe below 25% HP?

Comments: She's very anti-physical, Physical Reflection is kinda dumb. Otherwise she's got the usual good damage, in this case almost entirely magical. Like most Octopath mages she's a bit elementally reliant... at least until Omniscience comes out to play, which is rude as hell.


Dreisang
The Archmagus

Damage to him:
Cyrus's Shooting Stars: 1160
Alfyn's Amputation: 759
Therion's HP Thief: 713
Tressa's True Strike: 656
(Alfyn/Tressa have the same equips as against Steorra, so his defence must be quite a bit lower!)

171469 HP, 4 Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Lance, Axe, Lightning, Holy
Alternate weakness set #1: Sword, Lightning, Wind
Alternate weakness set #2: Bow, Holy, Dark
Alternate weakness set #3: Knife, Fire, Ice

Always acts twice

Attack: ~750 physical
Divine Majesty: Inflicts buff immunity, P Atk Down, and P Def Down, MT. Buff immunity's duration is 5 turns, the debuffs last for 4.
[Level 3 Spell]: 3 hits of ~440 = ~1320 magic damage, MT. He has six such spells, one for each Octopath elements. The attacks are Ignis Ardere (fire), Glacies Caudere (ice), Tonitrus Canere (lightning), Ventus Saltare (wind), Lux Congerere (light), and Tenebrae Operire (dark).
Element Break: ~1500 physical, inflicts E Atk Down and E Def Down for 3 turns. Below 75% HP only.

Stands Imposingly: +3 to current/max Shield (max of +6), shifts to his next weakness set (never goes back to his initial one). Used after each recovery from break.

Extreme Elemental Augmentation: Dreisang's level 3 spells are replaced with level 4 variants (called Ignis Maximus, etc.), which deal twice as much damage. Lasts until Dreisang is broken.

Comments: Solid magical damage, though it's almost all elemental/reflectable. It doesn't get unfair until Augmentation comes out below half HP; in-game you'd either better have a plan for that (there are several!) or break him fast. His base durability isn't as impressive as his fellow shrine bosses but being able to debuff either offence helps.


Balogar
The Runeblade

Damage to him:
Cyrus's Shooting Stars: 1350
Alfyn's Amputation: 686
Therion's HP Thief: 562
Olberic's Cross Strike: 518

197849 HP, 5 Shield
Weaknesses: Knife, Axe, Bow, Holy, Dark

Always acts twice

Runes' Protection: Guards all his weaknesses EXCEPT axe/dark. Not initiative, but unlike most weakness guards, persists even if he's broken.
Attack: ~1450
Rune of Flame: ~2500 fire physical
Rune of Ice: ~1750 ice physical, inflicts sleep for 5 turns
Rune of Thunder: ~1650 lightning physical, ~33% chance of stun for 2-3 turns
Rune of Wind: ~1750 wind physical, inflicts P Def Down and E Def Down for 3 turns
Rune of Light: Light physical, inflicts Speed Down and Evade Down
Rune of Darkness: Dark physical, inflicts Blind.
*I saw both the above two moves but I missed their details, they did similar damage to the other non-fire moves though.

Stands Imposingly: +2 to current and max Shield. 2PB, used after the first two recoveries from break.

Runestorm: Releases his weakness guards, and replaces all of his "Rune" attacks with "Runestorm" variants. They do about 80% of the damage of their original move (so fire is ~2000, the rest hover around ~1400), but are MT. Same status rates and duration. OPB, below half HP only, lasts forever.
Can boost during Runestorm state
Runelord's Resolve (Boost): 700x3 + 300x3 = ~3000 magic to one. Allegedly one hit is of each element.

Comments: In-game =/= the DL, it is known. In-game he's a complete joke at high health while in a duel he's got ORKO which can add a variety of statuses (including defence down for the status immune). Below half health is where he becomes scary in-game; some sort of status-blocking or evasion game is advisable.


Winnehild
Warmaster

Damage to her:
Primrose's Glaceies Caudere: 1510 (includes the +20% Augmented Elements passive)
Alfyn's Amputation: 709
Therion's HP Thief: 565
Olberic's Cross Strike: 430 (I may have written this down wrong? Seems too low)

*Therion's job/equips are the only ones unchanged from the last fight, so the physical defence looks near identical.

204444 HP, 5 Shield
Weaknesses: Staff, Ice, Wind, Dark
Alternate weakness set: Sword, Fire, Lightning, Holy

Always acts (at least) twice

Attack: ~1600 physical
Guardian Liondog: ~1800 physical MT
Qilin's Horn: ~1400 physical MT, inflicts P Def Down and E Def Down for 3 turns
Yatagarasu: 2 hits of ~1500 to one = ~3000 physical, inflicts poison for 2-4 turns per hit
Tiger Rage: ~3550 physical
Phoenix Storm: 4-5 hits of ~1300 to random targets = ~5200 physical
Counter Position: Counters the next physical attack/skill for 9999 damage. Cancelled if Winnehild is broken.

Stands Imposingly: +3 to current/max Shield. The second time it is used, +4 instead (for a total of +7). 2PB, used after the first two recoveries from break.

Wield three weapons: Can act an extra time per round, starting next round. Doesn't wear off. OPB, used below half HP.
Wield six weapons: Can act six times next round. Cancelled if broken. Likely requires her to be tripleacting to be used.

Can boost below 25% HP. When she activates boost mode, her weakness set automatically shifts to the second one. (I didn't see what happens if she activates boost mode again.)
War Cry (boost): 6 hits of ~1370 = ~8200 physical. MT. (...)

Comments: The strongest of the advanced job guardians (highest HP/shield/damage, and in general the only one who really feels balanced around having at least one other of the advanced jobs), Winnehild's base damage starts at well over 2PC, with debuffing to go further, plus a side of monster physical spoiling. As her HP falls she can unlock even more offence. All physical so the appropriate spoiling applies, but you'd better be damn good at that.


Final Boss

The final boss of Octopath Traveler is really more of a superboss, sitting far above anything else in the game in difficulty, and considered optional in the sense that you already saw the credits for beating Chapter 4.

Probably not terribly rankable, but listed here anyway. There are two battles, and they must be faced with two entirely different parties, with no chance to change equipment or classes in between. This means you must have 8 fully equipped PCs. PC damage should be high by now... to give you an idea, my own party was capable of rolling the minibosses fought before the final, who have 150-200k HP each, in 3 rounds (2 if I was lucky with guessing their weaknesses fast and/or getting Patience procs). Naturally this relies on weaknesses/break, so they should still be seen as over PCHP, but I'll provide it as a data point anyway.

My averages: Level 56.5, ~3610 HP, ~495 P Def, ~640 E Def.

Several PCs have auto-buffs which reduce either physical or magical damage received by 1/3 (and also raise the same damage type dealt by 1/3), and almost everybody has Saving Grace, but that's not factored in here.

Also note that you must fight both Galdera forms after fighting eight other mini-bosses, without saving. No pressure. My notes will be somewhat incomplete as such, since unlike other bosses I'm not risking death just to gather data.


Omniscient Eye
Galdera form 1

500000 HP (yep), 8 Shield
Weaknesses: Knife, Axe, Staff, Lightning, Holy
Great defences, he takes about ~1/3 less damage than most other enemies from both (good) physicals and magic, and mocks low-multiplier physicals.
Fights with Raging Soul, Wailing Soul, and Screaming Soul, though none are initially present.

Omniscient Eye is completely invulnerable to damage, status, and shield-breaking while any ally is alive

Summon Raging Soul: Does what it says. Used with initiative, doesn't consume turn for that round.
Summon Screaming + Wailing Souls: Does what it says. Used the first time he is alone (unless you lower it to half HP in a single break-combo, then this is allegedly skipped).
Summon Three Souls: Does what it says. Used the second time it is alone. Also used on the second action after any time a soul is killed thereafter, so you'd better kill them all at once! (If any souls are still alive when this is used, it does not affect them.)
Electrocute: ~2200 lightning magic MT
Searing Orb: ~2750 fire magic
Shared Vision: Accuracy Up MT for 8 turns.
Shudders Ominously: Dispels all positive effects from opponents, MT

Shadowy Mist: -50% accuracy to any physical attacks or skills used by the party. Does not affect attacks vs broken targets. Lasts until another mist/fog is used.
Green Fog: Poison on Galdera's foes tears off 1/3 MHP, 10% MSP and 1 BP instead of the usual 1/6 MHP. Lasts until another mist/fog is used.
Air of Elements: Supposedly raises Galdera's (and allies'?) elemental attacks by 50% damage, but I didn't see it. Probably the same duration.

Element Roulette: Free action, used the first time Summon Three Souls is used (maybe multiple times if you don't trigger one of the moves below, I dunno). The souls current/max shield is set to 4, and their alternate weakness sets are used. All but one of the souls' weakness is guarded. Raging is weak to fire, Wailing to Lightning, and Screaming to Holy. Any time a soul takes ANY damage, it rotates its unguarded weakness to the right by one (fire -> ice -> lightning -> wind -> holy -> fire).
Curse of the Afterworld: Free action, used after Summon Three Souls below 50% HP. Inflicts death sentence on three PCs. Each timer can only be stopped by the death of the corresponding soul. Raging Soul = 5 turns, Wailing = 3 turns, Screaming = 4 turns. They go down by 1 at the end of the round and kill immediately upon reaching 0.
Consume Soul: Free action, used after Summon Three Souls below 25% HP. All three souls are immediately killed. Galdera's Current/Max Shield is set to 12, he gains permanent P Atk Up and E Atk Up, and he gains the ability to tripleact for the rest of the battle (as usual, multiacting takes effect next round). Summoning can no longer be used.


Raging Soul
50000 HP, 3 Shield
Weaknesses: Holy
Alternate weakness set: Fire, Ice, Lightning, Wind, Holy (4 shield, initial weakness fire, rotates when hit)

Strike of the Dead: ~2900 physical, inflicts Speed Down for 3 turns
Vengeance: Counters the next 3 physical hits, lasts until used or until Raging Soul is broken. Counter deals ~4600 physical.
(I didn't give it many turns. It has other moves, including a MT physical and SP damage.)

Wailing Soul
50000 HP, 5 Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Knife, Ice, Wind
Alternate weakness set: Fire, Ice, Lightning, Wind, Holy (4 shield, initial lighting fire, rotates when hit)

Tainted Touch: ~1500, inflicts Poison for 3 turns
Dehabilitation: Inflicts poison for 2-4 turns, MT
(Again, I didn't give it many turns, sorry. Supposedly also has a ST "every damn stauts effect" move.)

Screaming Soul
50000 HP, 5 Shield
Weaknesses: Lance, Knife, Bow
Alternate weakness set: Fire, Ice, Lightning, Wind, Holy (4 shield, initial lighting holy, rotates when hit)

Seal Magic: Target can't use multitarget magic for 3 turns (see Mattias' entry).
(Supposedly it also does ST dark magic damage similar to Searing Orb, and 100% SP damage attached to some modest physical.)

Supposedly the souls have some very scary moves if you give them turns at low HP (MT stun!). That said they are extremely easy to kill once broken, so that shouldn't be an issue.

Comments: The soul summoning granting him invincibility is a hell of a wall, both in-game and in a duel. You'll want to kill them, unload some damage, then deal with the next wave. Rinse and repeat. The 12-shield tripleacting phase at low HP is begging for Leghold Trap -> break before next turn, but you're in for a lot of hurting if you don't manage that. Dispel -> Air of Elements -> Electrocute is around 5000 damage MT.


Galdera, the Fallen
Form 2

Moves I didn't see personally are marked with a *.

180000 HP, 9 Shield
Weaknesses: Lance, Knife, Bow, Ice, Holy
Fights with Lyblac, Abyssal Maw, and Blade of the Fallen

Veil of Darkness: Become invulerable to damage, status, and shield-breaking until "Veil of Darkness lifts". Used with initiative, doesn't consume turn for that round. Also sets shield to 99! (this doesn't matter)
Veil of Darkness Expands: +2 current/max shield for all allies (won't raise broken ally shield above 0). Used once after each of first two allies are reduced to zero HP.
Veil of Darkness Lifts: Ends own invulnerability, shield returns to 9. Guards his weaknesses to Lance and Bow. Allows Galdera to act three times a round for the rest of the fight, starting next round. MUST be used the first turn he gets while alone.

Attack: ~2000 physical
Eyes Forbiddingly: does nothing! Some guides claim it's a charge turn for something but not as far as I can tell.
Augmentation: P Atk Up and Spd Up 3 turns, one target
Shadowy Aura (1): Dispels all positive effects from opponents, MT
Shadowy Aura (2): Removes all negative effects from self and allies, MT.

Eternal Void: ~3600 dark magic MT (ouch). Used when alone.
Exterminate: 2 physical hits, damage unknown. Used when alone.
*Life and Death: 1 turn death sentence (if he's slower, instant death). Used when alone?
Can boost when alone. While he boosts, his weaknesses to lance/bow are unguarded.
*Banish Soul (Boost): Reduce HP to 1 and drains all BP, MT. Supposedly adds the drained BP to his current shield (and max?).


Lyblac
125000 HP, 6 Shield
Weaknesses: Sword, Knife, Fire, Holy

Attack: ~1600 physical
Deceleration: ~1250 physical, reduces BP by 2
Protection: P Def Up for 4 turns, MT
Elemental Augmentation: E Atk Up for 4 turns, one target (used on Maw)
Enchantment ~ Darkness: Blade will use Mistcutter on its next turn (see below)
Soul Healing: Restores 3 shield to a target who has lost at least 3 shield from max but isn't broken

Weakness: Debuffs EVERY debuffable stat for 5 turns. Used below 50% HP. Maybe if 1-2 allies are dead too?
*Temptation of the Fallen: Makes Deceleration multitarget, and gives it to Lyblac. Used once an ally has died.
*Enchantment ~ Fear: Blade will use Shrieking Blade on its next turn (see below). Used once Abyssal Maw has died.
*Auspices of the Fallen: Applies every positive status, self. Used when two allies have died. She also supposedly gets powerful multitarget magic at this point too. Sounds like a bad time.


Abyssal Maw
120000 HP, 6 Shield.
Weaknesses: Sword, Lance, Bow
Alternate weakness set: Knife, Axe, Staff (switches to this if the Veil of Darkness expands twice)

Attack: ~1200 physical. (Aelfric be praised.)
Hellwind: 3 hits of ~850 = ~2550 wind magic, MT. Supposedly has ice/lightning versions too. If this is buffed, watch out.
Consume Ether: ~60 SP damage MT (drains, if that matters). 4-5HKO range.
Shadow Eye: P Def Down for 3 turns, MT

Dark Flame's Curse: Prevents the use of multitarget magic. Lasts until Maw is broken. Used when an ally has died.
*Toxic Rainbow: Assuming it's unchanged from Ogre Eagle... Creates a field effect which lowers all opponents' max HP by 8% of their current max HP at the end of every round. Lasts for the rest of the battle. If this lowers max HP below current HP, current HP is dropped to that value (overwrites Saving Grace). Supposedly used when two allies have died.
*Nightmare: Multitarget magic which adds P Atk Down and E Atk Down. Never saw it, not sure on trigger.


Blade of the Fallen
130000 HP, 6 Shield.
Weaknesses: Ice, Lightning, Wind
Alternate weakness set: Fire, Holy, Dark (switches to this if the Veil of Darkness expands twice)
Bad magic defence. Despite my never focusing on it and it having slightly more HP than Lyblac or Maw, it died first from MT magic spam.

Attack: ~3100 physical
Overpowering Slash: ~5000 physical
Sweep: ~2600 physical MT
Mistcutter: MT physical. Supposedly adds blind. Damage unknown.
*Shrieking Blade: MT physical. Supposedly adds terror. Damage unknown.
Vorpal Strike: Reduces HP to 1. Physical/evadable.

Mighty Sweep: Stronger Sweep? Used below half HP. Damage unknown
Almighty Sweep: Stronger Sweep mark 2? Used below 25% HP. Damage unknown.
*Infernal Curse: Prevents the use of physical skills. Supposedly used when one ally has died.
*Movements intensify: Can double act for the rest of the fight. Supposedly used when two allies have died.

notes: Transfer Rune + Sidestep is pretty good, yo. Sorry not sorry for the incomplete notes. Presumably Overpowering Slash is the best in a duel anyway.


Comments: With four actors the damage here can obviously add up very fast. 11000 damage to a single target per round fast... or over 5000 MT. This is probably Galdera's simpler form to vote on and it's obviously very effective, even if you remove Lyblac for fusiony reasons (the other two are literally his face and his sword). The individual parts aren't actually super-durable here, and losing that turn on switching to offence mode when alone sucks (though less so in a duel against someone who isn't going to Leghold Trap him into oblivion), so you can probably overwhelm him if you're a really high tier of Godlike to Bluelike, but he's obviously in that range somewhere.

Lyblac alone is rankable on story merits, and... well she's not gonna be too impressive unless you let her start with that multitarget magic I don't have data on, although Weakness really sucks for physical opponents in particular since it hits both accuracy and attack (and everything else). Can probably swing Heavy at least.

[Dark Holy Elf]

All the Chapter 4 bosses are added! Advanced job bosses and the "true final" (if I hate myself) are still to come.

[Dhyerwolf]

A few notes since now I've actually played this game

All mages (and maybe even non-mages) will want to default to the Elemental Hat bought in Stillsnow. This basically has the same defenses as the current choice, but trades 53 SP for a gain of 61 magic.

You don't need to beat the game to unlock the Dragon Saber in stores, making that the best sword (also since Olberic doesn't care about speed; he has a move to give him priority turn 3 and OT speed is really only relevant turn 1 and still probably the worst TB speed stat I've seen since the fastest PC with DL stats will go after the slowest about 10% of the time).

C4 enemies have at least some noticeable evasion. I tested all the randoms in two dungeons (Alfyn's and Ophilia). Amputate was only hitting around 60% of the time (over 11 enemies each with 10 tests), DL legal Therion/Olberic were hitting 80% of the time (didn't matter what the move was, including Divine Skills) and H'aanit is probably around 85%. H'aanit doesn't really care though, because DL wise she'll want to use Acc/Crit up (which I'm guessing adds about 30% Accuracy) since that makes her crit rate around 80% (maximizing her Divine Skill). Without that, her base crit was about 20% (the others were probably more like 5%).


A few notes on what moves bosses can use in combos (AI is fixed to use these combos in order, although the parts of the combo can be switched around)
Lucia
Sweep+Attack, Sweep+Wallop, Wallop+Attack, Attack+Pulverize

Esmeralda
Attack+Red Blade, Hack&Slash+Raven’s Flight, Blue Blade + Attack, Attack+Five Strikes, Violet Blade + Hack&Slash

Mattias
Consuming Darkness+Attack, CD+Black Blade, CD+CD, Black Blade+Attack

Werner
Attack+Oppression, Sweep+Double Strike, DS +Attack, Sweep+Attack

Simeon
Attack+Silence Comes, Attack + Boiling Blood, Hushed Melody + Attack

Darius
Steal Item+Steal HP, Steal SP + Steal HP, Nighthawk+Sweep, Steal BP + Will O Wisp, Steal SP+Steal HP, Steal HP + Hellfire (in lieu of steal item)

Miguel (Version in post game dungeon)
Cross Spear + Attack, Twin Spear + Hurl Spear, TS + CS